FL, NC, and OH also have contested Senate races (though last I checked, FL and OH were pretty likely to go GOP). Seem like strange places to be withdrawing resources.

So based on that site Quik linked, these are the winning scenarios if Trump loses any or all of those states...

Loses NC only - Clinton 404, Trump 101
Loses FL only - Clinton 469, Trump 39
Loses OH only - Clinton 413, Trump 90
Loses NC and OH - Clinton 230, Trump 23
Loses NC and FL - Clinton 251, Trump 4
Loses FL and OH - Clinton 252, Trump 2
Loses NC, FL, and OH - Clinton wins all scenarios

He's going to have such a great debate he won't need to spend money in those states.

So 538's Poll-only projection has been moving steadily towards Clinton since the 1st debate. As of right now (well, more like as of 2:30pm):

Hillary Clinton has an 80.1% of winning the Electoral College vote on Nov 8, meaning Trump only has a 19.9% chance (if the election was held TODAY, Clinton would have an 86.7% chance of winning).

Now, of course things can change and 1/5th of a chance for Trump is still a chance, but Trump has got to turn this thing around and soon. Sunday's debate has to be a home run for him - and I don't think bringing up Bill Clinton's affairs is going do that.

I think we've reached the point now where it's out of his hands. He needs a Clinton smoking gun at the level of an audio tape of her calling Obama the n-word or a major mass murder on American soil by an illegal immigrant of Muslim. I don't see how anything he can say at the remaining debates can undo the damage he's already done to his own candidacy.

In fact the RNC has already called him the winner.

Because this is in one of my historical blind spots (and it's 2016), I went straight to the Wikipedia entry about this. I was graduating high school/starting college around the time of the case and was basically completely oblivious to anything outside of a 10 foot radius of my body.

Anyway, after reading the entry I think that it's interesting to note that it's probably not as cut and dried as news outlets are going to make it in the coming days 24 hours. Even though the five were exonerated based on DNA evidence, there is still a pretty strong case for some type of accessory/collateral role in the assault (physical or sexual or both).

Again, this is about as surface an understanding as one can get and it isn't meant to let Trump off the hook for his racially charged bullshit back in '89 (or now). Still, it's a fascinating case.

Honestly, I don't think even when the numbers started improving, that the Republican leadership was ever banking on a Trump win.

What they wanted was for Trump to be non-toxic enough for their Senate incumbents to be able to start banking votes as soon as early voting began. Make hay while the sun shines and all that.

I suspect their hope is that whatever does (or doesn't) happen in the final month of the campaign, that maybe Trump kept it together long enough to avoid the possibility of a washout in the Senate so that they can keep some leverage over the Scalia vacancy.

And I think that's been the plan even in recent weeks where Trump wasn't shooting himself in the dick Old Faithful style.

Trump on women: "Grab them by the p---y" https://t.co/pz7zSoyFYO pic.twitter.com/zCXkG3UB3K

— Rachel Premack (@rrpre) October 7, 2016

Another part of that tape:


Man, and he's talking about speaking more about Bill's affairs?!

His response is that Bill has said much worse things to him on the golf course, so yeah he probably will.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-r...onald-j.-trump

I dont really think this was bad lip reading

Maybe I'm jaded but I'm thinking this doesn't really change the election.

I mean is any Trump voter going to think, "I stood by Trump despite the other hundred racist/sexist/despicable things he has said, but this is going to far!"

Sadly I don't doubt this.

I think it could affect the nose-holders.

Maybe true. Maybe not. But yeah, it can't be disproven and it's completely believable. Probably his best shot to deflect.

Wow, Pence’s pool was removed from restaurant he was in when the Trump news broke, via @VaughnHillyard pic.twitter.com/SOFKulH4XZ

— MJ Lee (@mj_lee) October 7, 2016

Trump is scheduled to campaign with Paul Ryan tomorrow, wonder if that will be called off.

Of course he has no proof of that... and that doesn't necessarily address the cheating part.

The goal for him right now isn't to convince Trump voters, but to convince swing voters who aren't already on his side. I'm thinking about suburbanites in places like Philly, Cincy, and Tampa. I think definitely hurts him with them, or even in the best case scenarios, it prevents him from any attempts to gain with them for a few days.

It makes it far harder for him to claw back from his dwindling chances, but maybe Ben is right - that it is completely out of his hands and needs a near-miracle to win.

Well, he cost himself my vote with his own mouth, so on the one hand I get it.

On the other hand, I don't understand how any rational human being can vote for the subhuman filth running against him either.

A 1-1 tie (as they each vote for themselves) seems like the only sane outcome.

Which would end up electing one of those third party candidates you love. :)

I don't think anyone is surprised by the cheating part, everyone knew that about Donald. I'd say it doesn't address the, "grab them by the pussy, you can do whatever you want if you're famous," part.

Like Subby said, it's pretty clear they were exonerated of raping her, but guilty of heinous acts and were accessories to her rape (and thought they'd killed her). Screw them, screw de Blasio for settling, and screw Hillary for trying to make this a campaign issue.

Ken Burns did a documentary on it. It's on YouTube on PBS's YouTube channel.

It's not pretty clear at all to me. I know the three person panel sponsored by the police commissioner concluded that they were likely involved in some way, but I don't find them any more convincing than DA Morgenthau's conclusions, especially when we have hours and hours of interrogation that was not recorded.

In particular he needs to win back a fair portion of college educated white women that have abandoned the GOP this cycle. This won't help.

If this is locker room talk, its coming from the mouth of the one guy no one wants to be friends with. He's straight up bragging about how his self perceived status allows him to get away with sexual assault. What a disgusting piece of trash and an embarrassment to America.

How did none of the other R nominees not find any of this? Are they that freaking incompetent?

They lost to him, didn't they? I think that answers the question.

(I'm not sure any of this would have sunk Trump in the primary.)

So how do evangelicals support Trump after this?

Cognitive dissonance.

It's a requirement to be a Republican these days.

Here's one way:

Bill Mitchell on Twitter: "Look at the Bible. An imperfect soul like Trump is EXACTLY the type of person God always uses to lead his people. The pious are the enemy."

wow I think Trump is way beyond imperfect.

Are you also arguing they were innocent of all the other unprovoked assaults committed that evening? Because even Burns admits that they brought a pipe to the park that was used in the attack on one of the other joggers, and multiple defendants admitted to involvement in other crimes that night. And I think 7 years in jail sounds about right for teenagers who violently assault and rob multiple people but only probably were accomplices in a brutal rape. You don't have to pull the trigger to be charged with murder, and I don't think you should need to be the one penetrating the victim to be charged with rape.

But hey, Donald Trump said some sexist and offensive things, and the guy on his 3rd trophy wife probably wasn't faithful to her. That clearly deserves to be the bigger outrage in many people's minds.

And there's more.

We're posting my Sunday column early: It recounts how Trump forced himself on a young woman--in Ivanka's bedroom https://t.co/MthYPKFwtR pic.twitter.com/RvYbonLacw

— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) October 8, 2016

What are the odds Trump ends the debate with, "Fuck her right in the pussy"?

I'm now convinced that the entire GOP Presidental primaries are a giant improv group dedicated to amplifying the worst fears of the Conservatives:
2008- Political Neophyte in Barack Obama? Meet Sarah Palin.

2012- Running against Obamacare? Meet the other person to sign mandatory health insurance, Mitt Romney.

2016-Trust and Honesty issues, with a side of "Bad towards Women?" (Bill). Heeeeere's Donald Trump!

at this point, if Clinton wins the election and runs for re-election in 2020.. I don't know what they're going to do, except maybe put a T-1000 Terminator built from email servers from the Consulate at Benghazi.

(Ok, some of this may be the cold medicine. Not all of it though)

Now the election is over. This hot mic can be dragged out for another 7-10 days and itll essentially be too late for Trump to turn it around. I'd suspect over the next week a bunch of GOP'ers turn their back on Trump when they view it a lost cause to win the Gen election.

It's late on a Friday so everyone has probably already seen this stuff, but I think the Billy Bush tapes are what ultimately put the final nail in Trump's coffin. He's already been disinvited from Ryan's event tomorrow. Huntsman came out strong against him. The governor of Utah has now said he's not voting for him. Some never Trumps like Romney and Flake are just hammering him.

And then there's the Master of Shitty Timing, Ted Cruz. Maybe should have waited just a little longer to flush his dignity down the toilet with that endorsement.

Blah, I retract my prediction. This is the one nail in the coffin, and possibly the end of Trump's business brand.

Does the GOP get behind Johnson/Weld?

I hope so. A third party winning the election would be incredible.

They'd probably like McMulllen better since he was brought in by some NeverTrumps, but beggers can't be choosers

Sources tell me the RNC is meeting tonight to decide how strongly they can denounce Donald Trump while keeping their endorsements intact.

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 8, 2016

At least one Republican has found a way to justify continuing to endorse him.

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

— BNO News (@BNONews) October 8, 2016

PredictIt has this up to 20¢/share currently.

Congratulations to anyone who bought Hillary shares before the first debate.

Chaffetz just pulled his endorsement.

Gary Herbert also pulled his endorsement.

Those one has been out there for quit awhile, her subsequent actions after the alleged assaults really weaken her credibility.

And the Times moved forward a story they were going to run in the Sunday paper. Holy shit.

Log In - The New York Times

edit: fuck, beaten :)

Well that didn't take long:

Clinton unveils video on Trump's crude comments about women - POLITICO

I almost wonder if she should not debate him again.

Like do people really expect this to hurt trump? He's survived so many gaffes already that this too will pass. The election is still very much a toss up.

Yup, I do. This will kill any chance he had of getting any female undecideds. He had to get them to come his way to win and that is toast. He's even losing some of the hold your nose and vote Trump republicans. Its ovah. Toast.

Not only will it hurt Trump with hold your nose voters, but I think it could actually create hold your nose voters for Hillary. Some female Stein voters may now be convinced to try and defeat Trump at all costs.

Of course it will hurt him. How could it not.

Fuck Trump and fuck anyone who has a daughter who votes for him after this. Clinton needs to tie Trump with that kid from Stanford and Cosby.

Oh my god. He used his apology video as a free campaign commercial.

It's a shame we didn't get this video when it could've helped rule him out of the GOP running. Why are we just learning about this now? Dirty politics. Shady AF.

Billy really let Jeb down.


"This is a meaningless distraction. Now, let's talk about Bill Clinton..."

I think Dutch just channeled Ted Cruz's thoughts.

"I'm the one who said 'Just grab them in the pussy'"

-- Trumpty Trump



(of course someone has already made a Trumpty Dance parody song)

Lol, a commentator just said that Trump used the "Pee Wee Herman Defense", "I know you are but what am I."

LMFAO!

this is the most fantastic thing i’ve seen tonight. maybe this year pic.twitter.com/JZPl6iUaJi

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 8, 2016

"Yes...that's right, ma'am. The pussy, yes. You just grab 'em by the pussy. It's a metaphor. For Freedom. I am going to kill myself soon." pic.twitter.com/8gjeRmTkHJ

— Matt (@YayImOnline) October 7, 2016

I mean this is the thing that finally makes him poisonous for women? As if the 60+ female voter is cool with the fact that he traded her model in for a younger one. Twice. He's a sleazeball but it's just guy talk. I'm sure he probably wasn't actually (literally) serious.

Every cycle there's all these undecideds who are probably the same people that order light sauce on their entree or everything on the side or well done but not burnt. Like concentrate on getting your team out and less about someone who is unable to commit to the amount of sugar they want in their coffee.

He's said like 10 things dumber than this in the cycle. Pounding him on this issue might actually cause a withdrawal and "President Mike Pence" is almost as equally scary as "President Donald Trump"
(god forbid both of them)

I don't think this is THE thing, but on top of the comments about the beauty queen being disgusting for putting on a bit of weight and maybe being in a sex tape (and then there being concrete proof that he was a creepy dude in a soft porn himself) and all the other shit he's said, I can well believe this is the final straw for some people.

He had the couple of weeks where he was quiet and near presidential, and Clinton said the stupid stuff and the race was close. Since then he's lost a debate and just had a brutal couple of news cycles. I think unless the Russians or Assange actually have something meaty on Hillary, or he wipes the floor with her at a couple of the remaining debates, this is all but over. FWIW 538 now has Clinton ahead in every state up to Georgia, which I don't think will happen but is an absolute ass-kicking.

I suspect evangelicals are the most likely groups to actually flee. The thing that strikes me, though, is that the anonymous, behind-the-scenes quotes from Trump advisers and insiders seem much more pessimistic this time around. The attack dogs that show up on media outlets are still publicly spinning this as just mirroring Bill's attitude towards women, but privately, it seems like this may be something that makes lots of volunteers and campaigners go "why bother?" Trump's GOTV operation is already much smaller than Clinton's. If they're less motivated to perform wholeheartedly as well, then this may be the strike that hits.

But to win, Trump has to grab another 5% or so among white women than he's been polling, and this won't help.

I'll have to see if this finally changed my mom's vote. I doubt it, but who knows.

We're calling this Pussygate, right?

PING: tarcone

I think some of you are forgetting that a lot of Trump voters consider a vote for Hillary as a vote for the antichrist.

No one is arguing that Trump will lose every single voter. But this will hurt him by:

1) sending weak Trump voters away.
2) preventing him from acquiring new undecided voters (which he desperately needs to do at this point).
3) strengthening Hillary's support.

Some of this hurting more than the 167 other things Trump has said is because we just entered the last month to Election night and we're in between debates. Non-Political Americans (80-90% of them) are now paying attention and he's shooting himself in the foot. Repeatedly.

Sure. But turnout. I've already seen two people I grew up with who now live in Ohio who say they have moved off of nose-holding in the last 12 hours. She says she is going to leave POTUS blank and her hubby says he will vote third party. Trump can't afford for the nose-holders not to show up.

Dola: not to mention the #NeverHillary younger voters that he might possibly offend enough that they flip to #StillHateHillaryButGottaStopTrump

People also react more to the audio/visual than they would to a transcript. This wouldn't hurt him as much if there wasn't video.

Someone above said it's still a toss up election but it wasn't even before this recent Trump fiasco. He was already trending downward and I don't see how this will help.

RCP's electoral map now has Hillary up 247-165 with 126 in the toss up category. They currently have MN, CO and NH as toss ups and Hillary is up by 4.3, 4.3 and 5.0 in the polling averages for those states. Those 3 states would put her at 280 and she's taken a slight lead in FL, NV and NC.

For the same reasons he's still a viable candidate. None of this is new or adds any additional insight into who his is, it's more of the same with him. He pretty much says these things in debates. Not to mention, it's 2016, people won't be talking about this anymore in 2 days. Hilllary needs to keep finding new material right up to the debate and I'm not sure rehashing the same stuff will work.

I'm surprised people think this is going to sink him. Desperatly hope I'm wrong.

Yep the Ray Rice effect. Written report he beat up his wife on an elevator... "Shrug... just NFL players doing what they do". Video released... "OMG!!!! Fire everyone, ban him for life!"

At this point Trump supporters get exactly what they deserve (outside of nuclear war) if they vote for this asshole. Get believe anyone considers him a viable candidate for president regardless of their views on Clinton.

Ovah

I'm going with vaginazi

I seriously think this is a learning opportunity. Call him misogynist... quote him calling specific women "pigs"... point out his statements about female candidates and journalists... all those things basically failed to make the debate "tip" enough to change the entire campaign. (Isolating what did and did not happen in this campaign is going to prove completely impossible, just given the sheer number of "incidents" he has triggered)

Get him ON TAPE saying a very very memorable and objectionable phrase, and maybe it finally does "tip" here.

Maybe it's the political equivalent of the Ray Rice footage.

...and following on that... how much less impact would all this have had he used the word "crotch" in the most-quoted sentence of this decade-old tape? We'll never know, but don't we think that specific word is playing a major part in all this? Just the fact that he was boorish and rapey and awful might not be enough... but the exact phrasing seems to be a big part of it, I think.

Sorry Jeff. but I think you are here. We have him, a man running for President of the US, leader of the free world, speaking on tape, not just words about a women's private parts and trying to force himself on a married woman-how can he be viable after that. Clinton sure won't let him be-she and her surrogates will be talking this up all through Election Day. It's not going to just go away in a couple of days. There have already been other stories coming out where women have said how they were treated by him, and as far as I know the Nancy mentioned in the tape (I assume Nancy O'Dell, co-host of Access Hollywood at the time) has not come forward yet to talk about it.

I'm sure Trump supporters want this to blow away like a lot of stuff has, but this close to the election, don't see how that is possible.

This reads like a modern remake of the beginning of Le Morte d'Arthur only Trump keeps trying to get laid instead of starting a war.

I'd anticipate this having more of a public comment impact than an actual ballot casting impact.

Trump could be on film raping kittens & he'd still be a better human being than his opponent and a better (though probably not "good") President.

I can't imagine this changing (or removing) more than 1-2 percent of actual votes. Thing is, that may be just the size margin he can't absorb.

QFT - think this is probably a solid take. I also think as somebody mentioned above it probably moves the needle a little in getting some of the BernieBros on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.

But overall even if it's "just" a 1-2 percent swing, that's the last thing Trump needs right now.

If nothing else, this particular incident might at least put an end to the inane blathering about "Trump doesn't want to be President." He could easily drop out now, blame Crooked Hillary, the liberal Media, the NeverTrump RINOs, and, I'm sure, a few others that I'm leaving out, and (at least in his world) save face.

BREAKING: Donald Trump tells newspapers that `I'd never withdraw' and there is `zero chance I'll quit' the race for president.

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 8, 2016

Ryan uninvited Trump to a campaign event in Wisconsin. It has started. It sounds interesting.

Paul Ryan speaking now in Wisconsin. People shouting, "What about Trump?" and "You turned your back on him!"

— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 8, 2016

CNN breaking news headline on their front page: Trump: OK to call Ivanka a piece of ass

No the media's just digging for whatever old statements they can find, wonder what we'll see in the next few days.

But of course...And really, you can't blame them. It's a good time to get clicks for that stuff.

RNC halts Victory project work for Trump - POLITICO

Stop working on Trump Victory projects, and basically let the other side destroy your hopes (and True Trump-ites may stay home in disillusionment).

Or keep working, and watch you get tarred with the Trump Tar and risk the hand-to-nosers say "I can't support this party even against Hillary".)

It's the Ogre's Choice. Die Fast or Die Slow.

If Pence wants to have a hope in 2020, he needs to start thinking seriously if he stays on the ticket.

All Pence campaign events have been removed from the Trump web site. Lots of buzz on Twitter about that one of course.

Trump doesn't need a running mate. His kids will totally take over after he dies. We don't need to worry about a thing. He and his kids are gonna to make 'merica great again. You'll see.

"I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life"

Probably not the best phrasology given the circumstances

Trump is retweeting Juanita Broddrick now. This "debate" tomorrow night.

One has to wonder, how does Trump start his next speech at his next event? Address it, ignore it, what? Crazy.