I don't see him winning Pennsylvania without winning Arizona. And the other Rust Belt states will probably closely align with PA as well.

I think a better way to look at it from his perspective is he needs to flip AZ, GA, and Omaha for a 270-268 win.

Do we know if Nebraska's government and courts are normal GOP or MAGA GOP?

Like, if it comes down to that one vote, will they be honest brokers about it?

There's already been murmurs of Nebraska switching to winner take all at the last moment, but Maine has pretty much said they will counter any such move Nebraska makes, making it a wash.

I wouldn't go too far off the 2016 numbers as most pollsters changed their procedures afterward. 2020 was pretty damn close from a pollster side and even 2022 polling was spot on (if anything it underrepresented Democrats).

It's likely a coin flip right now but the momentum is clearly in Harris' favor. And it seems like the more people see of Trump and the more people see of Harris, the more it shifts. I could be wrong, but Trump looks really weak on the trail. Just none of the charisma he had in the past. I think the more you see of him now and in debates, the worse it is for him. And that doesn't even account for the fact the RNC was gutted and they just don't have much of a ground game in important states.

I think the freakouts you're seeing from Trump and others is a sign that the numbers are not looking good for them.

This raises a question I've had for a while.

How much do candidate rallies matter?

The people who go are, I assume, committed partisans.

Who is swayed by the fact that a candidate gave a rally in their city?

It is a rally of faithful more than an attempt to change minds. Get people excited, and get them to talk more about the that excitement to the less engaged.


When you look at what Trump has been doing, it may seem crazy but there is some method to the madness. I think they had a plan against Biden that was playing to the populist. Try to make it look like Trump has a broader appeal. Down play the crazier stuff while playing up things like no tax on tips. They could see the Democratic base was listless, and they felt like really the less they do the more in the bag the election was.

Then came Kamala. Suddenly, the Democratic base is excited. Someone new! Someone different! Trump was now facing a turn out problem that they were not expecting. So he goes to what drives his people to turn out. Racism, division, fear etc. He is playing to his base to get their excitement up. I think they are counting on the new factor wearing off, and the Democratic base to cool. Then Trump can go back to the populist playbook. For now though, he has got to make sure his base is revved up.

I think the events help rally supporters and get them excited to vote. But I also think they help with local media coverage and recognition.

For instance, Harris did an event in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. That's likely going to be heavily covered by all the local media outlets. I worked in Eau Claire when I was young and the big story in that region might be some new parking meters being added downtown. So this would be a big deal. I think it shows people in that area that you actually care about them, even if they aren't attending the event or even a supporter. And in a state that close, if one of these events can swing a few hundred voters, it's worth it.

It's literally the opposite of what Hillary did in 2016 and what Trump did so well.

A second photo of JD Vance in drag has hit the internet:

Can a couch molestor be considered hot?

Sofa Loren! Thanks Twitter 🤣

🤣

Today Trump was also found to be flying in Jeffrey Epstein's old plane.

Donald Trump:

• owned Miss Teen USA to IMG & was accused by three separate underage contestants of Teen USA of walking into their dressing room
• actively and on purpose exposed his own children to pedophile Jeffrey Epstein flies in Jeffrey Epstein's old plane
• called Jeffrey Epstein a terrific guy
• was logged on 'the Lolita Express' seven times
• held a 'calander girl' contest where he and Jeffrey Epstein were the only judges
• was literally accused of rape by one of Jeffrey Epstein's underage models

...and yet it's always conservative crackpots that invent conspiracy theories about Epstein and blame them on the left (and to be fair there are legit connections between Clinton and probably others on the left), but there is a mountain of evidence against Trump.

The European Union has informed Elon Musk that tonight's interview with Trump will be available in the EU and therefore subject to EU law, with whom Elon is already enaged in a lawsuit determining Twitter access in the EU. Currently the UK is embroiled in massive race riots I don't think they will be very flexible if Trump starts talking about race. Love that it's last minute too. What a winning day for team Trump.

This account loves to spread misinformation.

The Miami Herald confirmed that Trump flew on a jet once owned by Jeffrey Epstein.

A jet that was chartered by his campaign once Trump’s plane had a mechanical issue.

The owner of the jet bought it from Epstein when he was still… https://t.co/aePmSc19uI

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) August 12, 2024

It looks like it has been picked up by some more legit news sources in the last hour or so fwiw. The Miami Herald, as mentioned, and Business Insider.

EDIT: I don't necessarily doubt it was a very unlucky coincidence, considering the conspiracy connections, and nothing those articles say is untrue (though there's certainly a lot implied between the lines):

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...290986070.html

Trump Flew on Jeffrey Epstein's Former Jet for Campaign Stops - Business Insider

It was definitely Epstiens old plane, but it is a charter from someone who bought the plane a long time ago.

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Trump is totally going to tank the Truth Social stock and leave his "investors" with monster losses and they will still not hold him accountable.

The company makes no money and has no future. It's a meme stock and anyone who gets burned by it deserves it.

Well, yeah, but you think the people who buy trump meme coins and bibles know that?

Still winning today

Going about as expected

https://t.co/PLHekD9jzW

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 12, 2024

Mmmhmm

Elon's liability factory mysteriously shuts down after EU warning. I wouldn't be surprised if he did this himself so he can record and edit Trump's comments.

Can't say I'm a fan of that letter.

One the hand it mentions that X needs to protect media freedom and freedom of expression while also reducing the amplification of harmful content.

Those two goals can't really coexist. It's like wanting to root for a superbowl winner while also only wanting to root for the Cleveland Browns.

Trump and Elon have managed to do a lot of damage over the course of their lives.

Can you imagine how much worse it would be if either of them were remotely competent?

I did not listen to the Trump/Musk thing last night (duh), but I did just read that they tried to make the argument nuclear war (or bombing cities back to the middle ages) "isn't as scary as people think" because the Japanese cities we nuked are back to being "full cities" again. WTF?

My understanding, it was about the safety of nuclear power. Elon is for nuclear expansion, and Trump is against (he only wants fossil fuels, period). Elon made the point that even where nuclear bombs have been used, cities have been rebuilt, and that he has even eaten vegetables grown in the Fukushima area. Trump the quipped "but haven't you been feeling bad?"

Is there a bigger loser than Sean O'Brien? How have the Teamsters not ousted him or demanded his resignation immediately?

Feels like the fact that major news outlets are sitting on the hacked e-mails from the Trump campaign should be a bigger story. Very weird not to report it.

Supposedly sitting the 270 pages of vetting material on Vance and some stuff on Rubio but not publishing because of the "lessons learned from 2016".

It's an odd choice and has to be viewed as political at this point. Unless major news outlets are no longer going to be using information they've acquired from stolen material. Imagine not reporting on the Pentagon Papers or anything found in the Wikileaks cache of info.

What they are claiming is Wikileaks publishing Clinton's emails allowed them to talk about it. It had been put into the public sphere, so free game. But because they were sent it, it would be them publishing it and not responding to it. In other words, if the person that stole it just put it on the web, it would be free game. My bet is that it will eventually get there.

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So they wouldn't have published the Pentagon Papers?

Poker Pros, Crypto Kings, and Tech Titans: Nate Silver’s Guide to “The River� | Vanity Fair

I know Nate Silver is not everyone's cup of tea so all will read this with our own biases. Of course I have some fundamental issues with his arguments for The River including some he laid out himself where he argued against it. Either way, I do appreciate laying out the thoughts of his community.

I do wonder if The Village has both progressive and conservatives existing together or if there are separate Villages for each side of the political aisle.

I need Kamala to say, "Iran, if you're listening" at her next rally.

Still racist.

This is the official Trump campaign account. pic.twitter.com/biDuvO0Q1Z

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) August 13, 2024

"So they wouldn't have published the Pentagon Papers?"

Probably, but that is because it was an easily verifiable government report. Remember what happened with the Killian documents. Information from a single source that is not verifiable can come back and bite you. The same organization refused to publish Hunter Biden's laptop information for the same reason. When getting information from an untrustworthy source, you have to question how much is authentic and what might have been inserted.

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$350 Could Cost You Thousands: Wall Street Banks Clamp Down On Harris-Walz Donations

So utra-rich guys are free to contribute billions to PACs and to otherwise grease the skids for their own hand-picked VP candidate, but because one of the VP nominees is governor of a state, your typical citizen has to get pre-approval from certain types of employers to donate more than about $350 to the Harris campaign? I suppose the PAC option is still viable, but how many ordinary citizens are savvy enough to know which PACs are which, as opposed to the Harris/Walz Campaign?

Of course, I think the only time I've actually donated any money to a political campaign is when I worked in a small Tallahassee law firm for about a year where it was essentially required (without explicitly saying it). I feel like your ordinary citizen donating, say, $500-$2500, turns into a Greg Giraldo bit: "$1000? In this economy?"

Royce White is a major party candidate for the Senate. Sigh.

Questionable choice to pick one of the few jobs that may actually require more travel than being an NBA player. Now being a state senator, he could've driven everywhere he needed to go, but he's aiming high, I guess.

Also, JD Vance is awful, but I hope these pictures of him dressed in drag don't get much traction. Cell phones with reasonably functioning cameras have still only been around for like 25 years, but anyone under the age of like 40 pretty much grew up with them. If we don't want to keep having geriatric politicians, we are going to have to accept that some of the younger politicians are going to have cringy pictures and videos out there. If it causes his own followers to reject him and he looks like a huge hypocrite, I'm good with that - but I think the greater population has to be careful about criticizing out of context pictures from high school and college aged politicians or else a whole lot of folks are going to be weeded out and we end up with more of the lab grown politicians that we all hate (on both sides).

Agreed. I'm surprised we still haven't had an inappropriate/cringy messageboard/ FB post come up in a campaign yet, but maybe that's because we're still largely being run by people who still haven't successfully transitioned from typewriter to keyboard.

Also, I'm happy to see this move to the middle:

Yeah. She needs to trust that her vibes will help her keep the base and that her TikTok volunteers will keep that energy up.

She, personally, needs to grab the silent but sizable group of moderates who were quietly going to vote for Biden but really won't pull the trigger for a "leftist."

I’m at a family water park on the jersey shore. Guys in a tank top with a picture of Joe Biden on it that says “who shit my pants”

Maga-don’t call us weird.

40 years ago, people wore Alf t-shirts around. Now their entertainment is politics. It's not just weird, it's a sickness.

I guess I'm guilty of this. Not the shirt wearing (Alf or politics) but I do often view the competition between Republicans and Democrats as one giant entertaining soap opera.

Well, there was always that part of the populace that is just crass. I feel like there's a lot of overlap of folks who would wear that shirt and folks who had rear windshield stickers of Calvin pissing on [insert logo of choice]. A lot of the same crowd.

And truck nuts.

I usually just lurk here, but...

My 8 year old daughter is a type 1 diabetic and we do a JDRF (they recently changed their name to Breakthrough T1D) walk at Kings Island in Cincinnati every year since she was diagnosed. You come up with your own team name and a lot of people will have shirts made and wear them. One group had shirts on that said "My pancreas is as useful as Joe Biden as President." They all had them on, even the kids (probably under 10) who are already being brainwashed.

Weird.

I have tried to get to a place where if the most interesting thing about you is how much you love or hate one political party or candidate, you are not right in the head.

Also, interesting dilemma for Trump approaching with Florida voting on this:Just a moment...

His safety answer has been that it is a states' rights issue, but he lives in a state that is going to vote on it this election and cannot dodge it without upsetting one side or the other.

He already has successfully dodged it.

The media asked him about it. He said that he's going to make an announcement in a couple of weeks.

And, like everything he says is coming in a couple of weeks, it will never come, and no one will follow up with him about it.

And they call the dems groomers.

I love kings island. I used to live in Madeira. My wife worked for p and g. I loved p and g weekend at kings island. Post some more. We could use some new blood.

My son is T1 as well, he's 20 now but he's had it since 18 months. I still have a tshirt from a JDRF walk that we did many years ago, although it was just our son making a crazy face. My son just likes to pretend that he doesn't have diabetes, unfortunately his A1C also reflects this.

I would see a cringy/inappropriate post or already posted coming out now much like I would a failing drug test at the NFL combine. It is less about the post or pic and more about the candidate not preparing for the combine/campaign by not scrubbing the social media presence as much as they can.

I suspect as Millennials and Gen Z become more firmly entrenched NOT having a cringy/inappropriate social media presence might be more of a problem.

The policies she is abandoning are incredibly popular. This isn't to lure moderates, it's to appease donors.

I do wonder if she's going to continue Biden's policy of banning TikTok considering she's gotten a ton of viral publicity from the app and it's really energized younger voters.

538 has Harris up 2.9 points in polling average and dems are now up 1.1 in the generic poll.

I agree with your logic under most circumstances, but his coalition has a substantial percentage of folks that only support him for his achievements in limiting abortion rights. If this bill is close and he doesn't put his thumb on the scale to tip it, I can see that affecting his turnout there. There are a lot of folks that have it as their top voting issue, so I'm not sure he can flake on this one like he has fixing Obamacare or building the wall or releasing his taxes.

They arent necessarily that popular with the votes she needs in specific states. I think this is the correct move to win the election. But it is a fine line as she does need the turnout of youth too.

Extremely normal stuff here.

NEW VANCE AUDIO: In an interview from 2020, JD Vance agrees with a podcast host who says having grandmothers help raise children is “the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female.”

He also agrees when the host says grandparents helping raise children is a "weird, unadvertised… pic.twitter.com/W4KwHfZyw2

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) August 14, 2024

Take the nastiness and the sexism out of this and I still don’t understand the point they are trying to make.

Are they arguing that liberals think they should get childcare as a benefit of some sort (“give them money” he said) and that conservatives believe that extended family members should be responsible for the childcare of other members in their families? Because if those are the two choices I don’t think one of those sides is going to be as popular with the base as Mr. Vance apparently believes it is.

They argue and debate such weird things amongst themselves.

I think he's just very deep into that strange group of people with some idealized version of what they think real America is. He's heavily tied into Peter Thiel who is a fucking strange guy in general. They yearn for some vision of a white Christian nationalist nation (for others, not for them) they saw in a Sears Catalog from the 1950's. Their obsession is women and having them stay home to raise the kids and be subservient white baby makers for "the real men" of the country. Not surprising that divorced Dads who's kids don't talk to them like Elon eat this shit up.

It's really a weird and deep rabbit hold to go down if you have time. Lot of 4chan stuff mixed with white supremacist conspiracies.

The funny thing is that some of their ideas are not controversial. Like his idea for giving parents extra money is part of our current tax code. And saying you believe in a strong family structure and grandparents being involved is a popular sentiment. But they're so deep in that edgy 4chan shit that they make basic things most people agree on sound creepy.

How RFK Jr.’s presence on the Maine ballot could delay a projection in the 2024 race | CNN Politics



In Maine, for example, if no candidate wins a majority on election night, election officials must gather vote data from across the entire state and deliver it a central location in the state capital, where the actual tabulation takes place. That process could take more than a week, the Maine secretary of state’s office told CNN in 2020.


(This better not matter)

But they called this Neo Liberal in this clip and seemed to oppose it with a conservative idea of grandparents quitting their jobs and watching the grandkids. Its all so bizarre.

As I was saying I don’t really understand the point they are going for.

Most of JD's weirdness seems directed at women (surprise!)

Hardcore abortion policies
Attacked biracial women
Questioned purpose of 'post menopausal women'
Attacked cat ladies
Attacked childless women
Suggested women in violent marriages should not get divorced
Suggested police should have access to women's medical record

I'm sure that will be a winning strategy, while running against a woman.

Assume he is running out of money and it’s only going to get worse as Kamala has surging popularity. But thanks anyway for making the race a little interesting for Trump pre-Kamala.

Absolutely zero upside to a deal like that for Harris. You don't need crazy in your administration and not would a deal likely hurt her with her own supporters, I don't think Kennedy's supporters are flipping over to Harris even with his endorsement.

He helps her more by staying in the race and he supposedly can't stand Trump.

Democrats and Independents were asked: Are you more or less likely to support a Democratic nominee who pledges to withhold weapons to Israel?

PA: 34% more likely, 7% less likely
GA: 39% vs 5%
AZ: 35% vs 5%

Harris earns more votes by supporting an arms embargo than opposing it. https://t.co/AMlaB0yGIr pic.twitter.com/DifujH8MlO

— Yonah Lieberman �� (@YonahLieberman) August 15, 2024

I think it depends on the cabinet post, certainly not State or Treasury. I think he has some good ideas outside of the crazy stuff. I do think some of his voters will come with him to Kamala if he doesn’t stay in.

So let’s get the win first and Kamala can remove him later if needed.

It's such a weird world they live in. They want women to have kids and not work, but they also want to exploit the fuck out of the workforce and maximize profits. What do they think is going to happen if you remove half the workforce? I have to assume this is why lizards like Thiel and Musk are going so hard on AI.

exactly who ARE kennedy supporters? who are they for? who would they vote for otherwise? And I thought trump was the one that talked him into running.

Joe Rogan and his fellow conspiracy nuts?

I've wondered this as well, though not enough to do any actual digging into it. ;) And I don't know a single person--not even those with whom I'm only in contact via social media because I haven't seen them in like 35+ years--who has expressed support for him. :eek: That said, my guesses, though...

• anti-vaxxers who think Trump is otherwise too toxic in general, too conservative in his other policies, etc.
• "moderates" (term used extremely loosely here) who happen to agree with the handful of his policies/proposals that are associated with opposite sides of the political spectrum (I mean, he's kinda strong left on some things, center-right on some, plus anti-vax....but in a country this big, I'm sure there are SOME people who agree with him on almost everything... ;))
• low-information voters who just want ANY option other than the two major parties and think/assume he's credible because of his name

None of these groups seem particularly large, but hey, in some of the swing states with really small margins of victory, they could matter. If Trump could have taken just 1/5 of the Libertarian vote in Georgia in 2020, he wins there. 1/4 of the same vote in Arizona, he wins there. A hair over 1/2 in Wisconsin, and he wins there. Overall, if he could have grabbed just 1/3ish of the (tiny) Libertarian vote in those three states, it's 269-269 and he gets a second term via the House. :eek; So.....joking about them aside, the percentages these candidacies peel off were demonstrably consequential in 2020, and could well be in 2024.

I think a lot of Kennedy supporters are super low information who see the name Kennedy and assume he has the pedigree.

Don't underestimate the conspiracy vote ;)

There was a FB post from the other day from a HS classmate whose daughter got a "VOTE TRUMP NO TAX ON TIPS" message on a check. The check of course was for a bit over $72 and the tip was...$4.33. There was a good bit of back and forth on the thread from other HS folks. One said this:


One reply:


This was all the day before the whole bear thing.

Along these lines, there is talk of a massive pro Palestinian protest at the DNC, which can potentially devolve into chaos. In both of these cases, what does this really do other than give Trump free campaign ads? Video of any violence in Chicago will run will run to the narration of "This is what Kamala's America looks like" and so on.

Isn't it help better to secure office for someone that may be open to tamping down on Israeli assistance, which would also likely come with reduced Ukraine assistance, then to help elect someone who will give Israel carte blanche to do whatever they want?

I think that there’s also a group of people supporting RFK so that they can look feel smarter then the sheeple and more evolved then the masses. They like to feel that way… like owning and driving a cyber truck.


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Tin foil hat time:

1. Trump's team cares about Trump and Trump's ego more than anything else.
2. They want to win, but even more important than winning is making sure that any loss is not Trump's fault.
3. Thus, the team is intentionally putting Vance in a position to fail.
4. They are hedging their bets--trying to win, but also making sure that Vance--not Trump--is seen as the problem.

This falls into the land of conspiracies that I don't actually believe, but my jaw wouldn't hit the floor if it turned out to be true.

This is a campaign with 9 straight years of advance experience and $300 million in cash on hand

what in the hell is going on here? pic.twitter.com/fiPiT6x1Bl

— Doug Landry (@dougblandry) August 15, 2024

I don't think Trump has the energy to campaign at this point. He's having another presser from his club in NJ today.

They've also fired or forced out anyone with actual experience working a campaign. The only plan they had was to let Biden beat himself and flood the system with lawsuits if they lose.

And right as I post that I see that they've brought Corey Lewandowski back in.

They can bring in the smartest people to ever walk the planet and it won't make a difference. He was supposed to give a speech yesterday about economic policy and instead it devolved into his usual grievances and ranting. He is unable to pivot from the same old tired talking points.

Being president is a tough job and I don't think Trump wants to really work hard at a job at this point in his job, but I do think he is incredibly motivated to become (more) historically relevant and be seen as successful, so onward he must go.

Plus, running for president is lucrative. I would love to know how much he and his inner circle have personally profited from fundraising and perks. That's why I am shocked that the Hunter Biden stuff got so much traction. Look at how much Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka, and their respective partners have taken advantage of this and it is easy to see why none of them want to truly let it go.

I do think the assassination attempt has made him consider how much longer he wants to go through with it.

Lewandowski wasn't very good to begin with. I'm not sure anyone else wants anything to do with a sinking campaign this close to election though.

It is the leopards eating faces party. Have fun with the Muslim ban if Trump wins

To be certain but my point is Trump is his own worst enemy and until that changes campaign strategy means nothing.

I think he is terrified of going to prison for the rest of his life.

As for the profiting MAGAs hallmark is behaving badly then making false equivalencies when the "other side" does something even remotely close. Just look at the Walz stolen valor claims. Trump literally sent 5 other kids to war because daddy paid off the doctor yet vets love him.

Not much of a retort when the current administration is genociding their family and friends.

Trump is nearly 80 and just had a bullet whiz by his head. I'm guessing between age and some PTSD, that's why we've seen less of him.

I think he wants to be President for the power. He likes the accolades, the money, and the attention it brings. I don't think he's concerned about prison because there is zero chance he ever spends a night in prison with our current justice system.

It doesn't help that the Trump family is stealing so much of the campaign and RNC funds.

And a Trump administration would only make it worse. There is a reason Bibi wants Trump to win.

Yeah I don't understand the "sides" on this issue. It's the same position. The only reason there's an issue is because a portion of one side is surprised/unhappy with their side's position. But the other side is not an alternative position.

How do you make genocide worse?

Fixed it for you

More death, more destruction, zero assistance when it comes time to rebuild, etc...

trump failing again miserable by going right to attacking Kamala and Walz

Israel is doing whatever it wants with no pushback. I don't know how Trump could do more. Gaza is destroyed, there are hundreds of thousands that are likely dead, and no plans for it to ever stop.

It's like telling Jewish people they have to vote for Hitler or Goebbels. They'll just sit out like anyone in that situation as it is their only leverage. You can't justify voting for someone who views you as not even human.

Target demographic is divorced Dads who's kids don't talk to them anymore.

Skip the "precision" bombing and go straight to the fuel air explosives and once you've swept up the ashes and remains out of the way, you can build new Israeli settlements. When the UN complains, act like the Turks with the Armenians.

It can *always* be worse.