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Well we never really offer democracy to these countries. They can pick a leader, but it has to be someone we approve of who will hand all the valuable resources to our businesses. It's the same proposition we've made in Central and South America for half a century. Plus we aren't exactly all that big on democracy in our own country, so maybe we shouldn't be the ones trying to set it up elsewhere. |
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They did no such thing, and specifically refused to. The Taliban offered first to try Bin Laden in Afghanistan, and then later went as far as saying they were willing to hand Bin Laden only, none of the rest of the organization, over to a third country that the US would agree to not put pressure on for extradition etc, for trial in that hypothetical third country. This was accompanied by a demand for evidence, evidence they had already been given not just by us, but also by Pakistan after they'd reviewed our information. I think those are and were transparently unreasonable terms. I think you're largely correct when it comes to corruption on the military side of things, and partially when it comes to keeping our hands on the wheel too much in forming the new Afghan government. But this idea that all we had to do is accept them handing over Bin Laden to avert a war just isn't so. |
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For emphasis. |
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Dad jokes are always better the second time around :D (whoops, my bad) SI |
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The Taliban offered many times to turn him over if the United States would provide them with evidence he was behind the attack. They even were willing to involve the OIC which is a very favorable bloc that is pro-US. The Taliban is obviously not a reliable source, but neither is George Bush. Ignoring the fact we had no extradition treaty with Afghanistan, there are next to no countries who would willingly turn over people without evidence or an agreement. That includes our closest allies. The United States had no interest in trying Bin Laden. It's why their offers were always vague enough to be out of reach (just like they did with Iraq). They wanted war. Likely a mix of the country needing the morale boost of blowing up some brown folks and enriching military contractors. But the fact is that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are different entities with different goals. The Taliban had nothing to do with 9/11. |
For those who are surprised Afghans would support the Taliban, remember that we spent the 80's pumping their citizens with radical Islamic materials in the hopes it would help them fight the Soviets better.
You spend billions pumping propaganda into a country and then are shocked that they bought it. |
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The Soviet Union did a much better job of trying to force their ideology on Afghanistan than we did. After withdrawing, it took three years for their Marxist puppet government to fall, and it took three weeks for our democratic puppet government to fall. |
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They were given evidence though. By Pakistan, who got it from us. Pakistan agreed the evidence was sufficient, and they were longstanding Taliban allies, having fought with them against the Northern Alliance in numbers of tens of thousands. Quote:
They absolutely were different entities with different goals, but they were also de facto allies. This wasn't the first time the Taliban had been furnished proof of Bin Laden's involvement of terrorism and asked to take action. This included, among other elements, UN Security Council Resolution 1267 which, almost two years prior to 9/11, demanded Bin Laden be turned over and that the Taliban stop permitting it's territory be used for terrorist training activities. It's not as if 9/11 happened and it was the first thing Bin Laden had done, the Taliban were shocked that their friend would do such a thing and needed proof to verify it. The international community had been very clear with them in escalating terms leading up to 9/11 and had gotten nowhere. |
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The Taliban were complicit with and very accommodating of several Al Qaeda training camps, the most notorious of which was the Al Farouq training camp which operated unabated throughout the 90's until September 2001. Four of the 9/11 hijackers received their basic training at Al Farouq. |
Wait till you guys hear about Saudi Arabia.....
The Taliban are bad but they also didn't have anything to do with 9/11. There are a lot more countries and groups in that region who helped 9/11 than the Taliban ever did. |
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There are a lot of very fine people on both sides. |
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani reportedly fled Kabul with $169 million in cash
Yes, the source is the Russian Embassy. Yes, the Afghan president says it is not true. No, I am not letting any of those things get in the way of the story as reported. Quote:
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How do you carry around $169M in cash? Like even if they're all hundreds, that's over a million bills.
Grasping Large Numbers "The height of a stack of 1,000,000 one dollar bills measures 4,300 inches or 358 feet – about the height of a 30 to 35 story building." SI |
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Corrupt world leaders have access to higher denomination bills.
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The fact that it is supposedly USDs as opposed to Euros or some other currency is fitting. Almost like it was shipped directly from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. Almost.
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I was going to make a trillion dollar bill joke and then didn't. Good to see someone picked up the spare on my 7-10 split SI |
After the mediocre presidents reference it was the least I could do.
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No idea how this will play out or how real the story re: ability to resist is, but interesting tidbit that ties back to previous post about Massoud.
Inside the Afghanistan province that refuses Taliban control Quote:
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Yeah, it's too bad that former vice president Amrullah Saleh wasn't the president all along. He tweeted this earlier this week:
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As our last President proved, there is no problem that can't be solved by tweeting! |
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It's a factual statement. The Taliban did not commit 9/11. I know it's against the 20 years of propaganda spewed but it's the truth. The Taliban is a horrendous, backward ass piece of shit group. But they didn't commit 9/11 and we never really went after the people that helped facilitate it (because they sell us a lot of oil or have scary weapons). |
So, more accurately "there's a lot of bad people on both sides?"
SI |
White nationalists are gonna white nationalist |
Dare I say that anyone who didn't answer that question as "Neither good nor bad" is a racist?
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Re Afghanistan:
I really don't know why people are so up in arms about all this. Look, they had 20 years to figure it out, now, when the money and assistance walks away, are they pointing back and saying that we've done nothing and abandoned them. Look, in a country that essentially operated like a bunch of Sith Warlords, even in the 'legitimate' part that was set up, if you don't appease every corner all the time, they turn and cut you behind your back to seize power at the next level. That's the way that it was before 9/11 and that's how it'll be now. Mostly because the country is so isolated economically from the world that all leadership is based from the ground up. So if my corner doesn't like what the leadership at the top says, I reject it, then get a whole bunch of people to side with me and reject it, and then I claim my own leadership status until I'm deposed by someone else, and rinse and repeat forever. So after 20 years of trying to make inroads in that culture, and largely getting undercut by the Taliban and their foreign supporters we leave, and we leave the rest of them to the country that they wanted all along. The Taliban are more brutal and not afraid of using force to keep everyone in line, and while that's not terribly enlightened it's got to give Jon a huge boner. The country has the leaders and government that they always wanted, because if they wanted something else, someone else, or a legit group would have garnered enough support to make it happen with the billions that have flowed into the country. |
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I would say that is a fair assessment. |
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We didn't do that though. Most of the money spent went back here to military contractors. The rest was incompetently spent by our own government. The only goal in the war was enrich certain businesses and maybe get some good PR for a President and Generals. South Korea is more of the example we should have worked with if the true goal was nation building. |
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We will have to agree to disagree on this one. While the Taliban did not overtly support Al Qaeda prior to the 9/11 attacks, they were complicit with allowing numerous Al Qaeda terrorist training camps to flourish within their borders. Al Qaeda ideologue Atiyya Allah al-Libi informed his associates that the Taliban’s public stance toward the group was to deny association to manage international pressures, and that Al Qaeda’s top leadership was comfortable with this position. Al-Libi wrote: “Of course, the Taliban’s policy is to avoid being seen with us or revealing any cooperation or agreement between us and them. That is for the purpose of averting international and regional pressure and out of consideration for regional dynamics. We defer to them in this regard.” |
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It is amazing to me how rarely South Korea is brought up in cases like this. |
Kind of amazing that as bad as the pullout was, Trump has to come in to remind us "Hey, I would have done it a lot worse. I (apparently) would have left our soldiers there without any equipment or bases or civilian support. Also, the Generals I left in charge after four years as C-I-C suck because I am really bad at personnel." Like, for 5 minutes there were some people who were thinking "Man, this has gone horribly. I can't imagine even Trump would have done it worse." And that was like the Bat signal to his stupid or something. |
Raise your hand if you thought that turnip would follow past presidential courtesy and keep quiet and on the sidelines for the betterment of the country and allow the new leadership to effectively govern without someone else distracting or otherwise commenting on every single thing?
Yeah...didn't think so either. |
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These stories are almost always bullshit. |
So many things in that statement. Above all else I'm struggling to get over the fact that our former President posted in an official statement that "you bomb the bases into smithereens".
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I love how his strategy is to remove all the Americans and equipment and state they wouldn't know we left. Like they wouldn't wake up one morning and be like, fuck, all the tanks and shit are gone.... |
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Not to mention the fact that I'm sure no one would notice the bases being blown to "smithereens". The plan is up there with nuke a hurricane. |
The facts doesn't matter. His lemmings eat up anything the Great Lord says.
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Not a good couple weeks for Biden. Much of the criticism is deserved IMO for this FUBAR. I think we'll be in Afghanistan (airport) for the next several weeks so there'll be weeks more of pics, dire stories etc.
There was a news blurb about US not able to get to citizens (not already at the airport). I don't see how our troops can go out of the airport and pick up folks so best for them to shelter in place. Biden's options are understandably limited here. Another article said he did not speak to any other world leaders (aka Boris) for 48 hours after the fall. If true, this seems weird to me. Blurb on him saying AQ not in Afghanistan but then contradicted by DefSec. I think this one is defensible, he wasn't precise with his words but what he said is generally true. Another on ABC covering up Biden confusing Beau Navy vs Army. Confusion about Beau's service is not reassuring. And of course, Hunter and his latest video he took of himself chatting with prostitute. Biden has taken some body blows and at least one headshot. He's not counterpunching very well right now. |
I've not read about Pelosi wanting Senate to pass both the $1.2T Infrastructure and the $3T Families bill before proceeding. I rather just do the $1.2T first and then worry about the $3T but can appreciate her games(wo)manship.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/hous...mic-plans.html Quote:
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It’s good to see cnn hammering Biden too if not just to show me that they weren’t just anti trump to be anti trump
Don’t make a difference in our current country but good for me anyways Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
I think that's a mistake by Pelosi, who I think in general has been making more and more of those from a tactical/strategic standpoint in recent years. Risks losing both of them with how much more opposition there is to the larger package.
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The duel track has always been a part of this. The left don't trust that the moderates will vote on the second bill, and the moderates won't start with the bigger bill. Neither bill will pass by itself.
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That's unfortunate. The reporting I'd seen was indicating that the first bill was a sure thing at this point and the only question was on the second one. Seems to me a good recipe for getting nothing passed.
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Progressives won't vote for the first bill if it's by itself. That's always been the case. Even Manchin understands this is the only way.
Now I could see the reconciliation bill total coming down a bit, but it has to pass with or before the bipartisan bill. |
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I've been following this closely, and I think that General Austin Miller is going to be the sacrificial lamb in this ordeal. He has a perfect service record and did the best he could with the hand he was dealt over there. He sent several reports up through command on how the Afghan army could not hold. Secretary of State Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley should be the ones to take the fall for this, but they're going to throw Miller under the bus. Biden doesn't want to lose any cabinet members so soon for incompetence. |
Does he though? Maybe you've got sources that I don't, or reporting I haven't seen, or statements that I can't find.
Everything I've seen for a long time, and a week ago Manchin said something quite similar, goes the other direction. He said he doesn't understand why the House is holding the first bill hostage, said that the bills should be voted up or down separately on their own merits, that he doesn't support the larger bill in it's current form ... I mean we can always say he's grandstanding, I just don't see how there isn't a huge risk that he means what he's saying - and he's far from the only vote in question here - and that we don't end up in a situation where either the larger bill gets a hatchet taken to it in which case progressives won't approve it, or moderates like Manchin just say no and then neither one passes. What info is out there that I haven't seen? |
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Manchin knows the landscape and while he may bring down the total a bit, he's already shown that when it matters, when he has to vote, he's for proceeding. I don't think they should be linked and I'll not vote for reconciliation are two very different positions. |
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Biden did back away from a veto threat back in Jun after the bipartisanship infrastructure was approved. An argument can be made that he always expected/hinted this but agree with you I didn't read it in the news (or at least it wasn't widespread in the MSM that I read) since then. My guess is the $3.5T will come down some but overall, it delays the $1.2T and brings in a lot of unknowns. Biden walks back veto threat on infrastructure amid GOP pushback Quote:
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I am curious why you think Gen. Miller would be sacrificed. I took a quick look and he is scheduled to retire after 38 years. I think this would have been his last assignment no matter what so I don't think it is a forced retirement in any way. |
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Agree 100% and I hope they don't try and scapegoat a man about to retire, whose service to this country has been impeccable. There is plenty of blame to go around, but I can't see much room for any of it to fall on his shoulders. |
The polling was done Aug 13-16. The Taliban entered Kabul Aug 15. So it was done in the height of the confusion. More polling to come but not a good sign for Biden.
Poll: Support for Afghanistan withdrawal plummets as Taliban seize control - POLITICO Quote:
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Specifically about the past 2-3 weeks ... I don't know how much blame should go to him but doubt it is one individual. It is a failure of intelligence, failure to process it properly, failure to mitigate the different risks etc. I can easily believe Biden got bad/no/contradictory advice but bottom line is he ultimately owns what has happened in the past 2-3 weeks. Not Trump. The whole story will come out in a month or two. We should get a holistic view on what happened, timeline on things, who made what decision, who knew what when etc. So I'll reserve judgement on who (in addition to Biden) gets the blame. But yeah, some heads should fall. But from what I remember, cities and territories were falling quickly the 1-2 weeks before Kabul. I think we were doing airstrikes as I recall Taliban was saying "stop them or else". So there was plenty of warning for 1-2 weeks for the US to get their act together and at least prevent the Kabul FUBAR right now. Khandahar fell 2 or 3 days before. There was warning to get US citizens out of there. Looking forward to a better week for Biden tomorrow and hope the US seems more organized. He's looking pretty weak in this crisis, also the military, and our inability to protect US citizens is really bad. Major albatross for the next 3.5 years. This is much worse than Jimmy Carter's failed rescue. This is on par with (and arguable worse than) Marines at Lebanon or Somalia. And it can easily get worse if the Taliban wants it to be. |
It is really just another time in the fountain of the disintegration of our standing in the world. Trump clearly threw a lot of dollars in but so did Obama and others before him. As I’ve said before I’m an interventionist so I’m always a proponent of going around and somewhat being the spine of moral high ground around the globe. For twenty years I’ve watched us try to be that sponge while also giving up on the moral high ground in practice, words yes practice no.
This is the culmination of that. We will be unable to go and accomplish those missions anymore. We’ll be able to go intervene in easy scenarios but on more difficult landscapes we will be unwelcome while Russia and China are more so. Hmmmmmm I’m surprised that as we’ve tapered our standing down Russia was able to equally build theirs up. It’s almost like someone or some people were saying that that was happening while trump was in office blowing Putin but I digress. It started before him (Crimea, Pakistan, Myanmar, Africa, Turkey, etc) but pres trump was the first President in my lifetime that I felt was very possibly a Manchurian candidate toeing the line as far as he could and given opportunity by a cult of gop members that literally allowed for the following out of what I mentioned above (and then some). To the topic at hand I believe Biden deserves a lot of fault for what’s happening in Afghanistan. I think everyone and anyone could’ve foreseen what’s happening now and the last few weeks of collapse. I certainly felt like it was an easy dot connection. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
I don't think spending 20 years in a place with little strategic value is a good reason to question the resolve of the USA.
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Nice touch taking an iconic pic with the US equipment. I'm sure the Taliban will milk this for all its worth.
Taliban soldiers MOCK iconic World War II image of American Marines raising flag on Iwo Jima | Daily Mail Online ![]() |
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Another headache for Biden. ISIS can do what the Taliban may be unwilling to do. Quote:
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This is an interesting thread on why the pull-out in Afghanistan had to happen as it did, and what the cost of staying likely would have been.
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I would’ve supported an overwhelming surge in advance of pulling out
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I found this one the most interesting
SI |
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Another factor in this is that we tend to 'get over' foreign policy judgements, postively and negatively, quite quickly. Domestic policy tends to be a lot more important to the average voter. For this to be even relevant in '22/'24, there would need to be continuing bad news from Afghanistan involving support of new terrorist attacks on US targets etc. I think. |
8000 out yesterday and 30000 out in August.
It's not the failure the media wants it to be. |
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Here's another one of the #1 most wanted Al Qaeda terrorist, Khalil Haqqani, posing with a U.S. assault rifle in Kabul, along with Taliban troops wearing American uniforms with night vision goggles. Haggani has a $5 million bounty on his head. Please note that there is no connection between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. ![]() |
$5mm doesn't move the needle internationally.
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Five million to kill the most wanted terrorist.....5 million to prove to the Pillow guy that his data was bunk.....Maybe the terrorist can prove it and pay off his bounty? |
Up to 30K evacuated since August 14.
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And no casualties. Zero. Nada. Not one American troop. This has become quiet competence and not sexy violence, so the media will move on. But I am so very happy for the folks who are getting to safety, even if no one notices. I remain impressed by this administration. And I remain upset at 20 years of mostly pointless war aided and abetted by both parties. Still lots of soul searching that this country needs to do. |
There's no incentive for the Taliban to make it harder for people to evacuate. So one would hope that casualties would be kept at zero.
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Haqqani is not Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is not a general term for any Islamic terrorists/insurgent/fighter. It has a specific designation and set of beliefs. One of the issues with the withdrawal and gauging public support is how little the public knows about the region and the players in it. |
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The media that cheerleaded the war and got just about everything about it wrong is not going to give in easily on this one. I think the NY Times even ran an op-ed about how we should stay forever and the lives lost isn't a big deal because we can take all their riches. |
I have a simple (okay, maybe not so) question. It's a neutral question looking for a factual answer, may lightning strike me if I have the slightest political intent. I sincerely just want to know the answer to something that Googling really didn't turn up, hardly even vague attempts at answers could I find.
The U.S. citizens still in Afghanistan -- be that 3k, 10k, 15k, whatever the number is -- who the fuck are they? As in, why the fuck were they in Afghanistan to be stuck there in the first place? Yeah, sure, there's a lot of categories but surely they fall into at least 2-3 broad categories that would account for half or more ... right? Are they business people? industrial workers? Relief/charity folks? Religious missionaries? Thrillseekers? Tourists? Zero politics intended here, I just don't know a better thread to stick the question in. Anybody seen an actual answer(s) to this? |
I do not have an answer but my guest would be military contractors
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I was wondering that, too. I mean, I figure there's some students and some support staff (the translators we keep hearing about - but it's not like there were 50K translators to start with). If you're a tourist or businessperson, you're getting the hell out of dodge as soon as you can - but I assume most have already left. Religious missionaries may not come out even if you could. I dunno.
SI |
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Probably a good chunk with dual citizenship. |
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I thought the translators we keep hearing about were locals though; i.e. Afghan citizens who worked for/with the U.S. I could be wrong for all I can prove, but that's how I've always interpreted that particular category. |
48K evacuated since August 14.
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I hope this does not violate the zero politics decree. This article may give some insight. U.S. Contractors in Afghanistan Are Hiring Amid Withdrawal If one of these companies did not have me on the first thing smoking out of Kabul by the time the Taliban was within 100 miles of Kabul, I might be demanding that the U.S. gov't get me out of there instead. |
Heading to Germany as we speak to bring a flight back to DC as part of all this.
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Ok, that's pretty cool.
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awesome |
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It absolutely fits, because it's the first place I've seen put a hard number on anything Quote:
Minus however many got out in the meantime, that's roughly half (or more) of the U.S. citizens most coverage sites as being still in country. |
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Good luck, PilotMan! If by "DC" you mean Dulles or Reagan, I hope your layover is short so you can get home. But if you mean BWI and you have a long layover, I think it'd be cool if the FOFCers in the area (cuervo, QuickSand, me, others?) could take you out for a drink and a meal. |
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Mostly contractors. And those contractors are mostly boring ones that do jobs like build roads, bridges, cell towers, buildings, etc. Lots of IT and network engineers there too. And those people need security contractors to protect them. It's basically a country with no in-house expertise so they have to hire foreign contractors to do a lot. When I was young I worked for a contractor in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, so I know a bit how the system works. I was blown away by how many Westerners work throughout the Middle East. As for why? There is a ton of money in it. Way back in the early days of the war, they were paying people with marginal IT abilities $85/hour to work in Afghanistan (this was before the Iraq War). And you could essentially work as much as you wanted to and you are taxed much less. I imagine that rate has only gone up. So some young guy who isn't married can spend a year over there and have his school loans paid off and a nice down payment for a house by the time he gets home. All while doing something they would have been paid maybe $20/hour here in the states. I has the opportunity to work in other parts of the region (not Afghanistan specifically), but passed. The extra money wasn't worth the risk in my opinion. |
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I saw something on CNN earlier about a group of Afghans who'd become U.S. citizens were back in Kabul for wedding. I'm sure there could be a lot more doing the normal "August is vacation time the whole world round" thing and visiting family? |
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I would love to take you and anyone else up on that one day. Coming into Dulles, but not staying long. Hopefully one day we can make that work. I think I've met about 6 guys from here over the years. |
Just to add when it comes to exact numbers, I think it's really tough to know. The government keeps some hard numbers on who they've hired, but it's not exact since they aren't the ones paying the individual contractors. So they hire a company to build and maintain some cell towers, but they don't know if the company has 200 or 400 people working on that.
Also there are so many layers between the job and the company. For instance, I was essentially working for Raytheon. But my checks were paid by another company in the States that hired computer programmers/IT. And that company was being contracted by a foreign company (I think out of Panama) that's job was placing foreign contractors with companies (guess you could call them a headhunter). And then I don't know what came on top of that, but it eventually lands at Raytheon. So I don't know if that's just a huge bureaucracy or a way to protect themselves from taxes and liability. But you'd need some really deep forensic accounting to figure out who is who in these countries. |
BSo weird. ThiBS guy in jail for the 1/6 judge told the judge that he waBS duped by Q. Then he waBS caught on the Internet looking at Q like crap.
I’m confuBSed…. He BSaid he waBS duped but then went back to their BStuff even in breaking the court’BS ruleBS BSet on him. What iBS the real dude thinking? He BSaid one thing but did another… I’m ConfuBSed. How can we know the real intentionBS? https://apple.news/AymzGK4NaQ-u3xRGe3bvDhg Look we all know what the gaslighting , obfuscation, and twisting of statistics is for don’t we? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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If you ever end up at Stewart in Newburgh... |
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I like how his lawyer tries to move the goalposts, too: Quote:
It's, of course, not about endangering the community. It's that he was lying out of his ass, pretending to be contrite, to get out of more jail time: Quote:
SI |
Couldn’t be
He said what he said to the judge so at the time he must’ve meant it authentically Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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I might be getting brave enough in my old age to consider such a thing. Oddly enough I have actually encountered an FOFCer at an airport before. Family was coming back from a vacation in Arizona and we flew back from LV. Spotted Quik*, who happened to be coming back on the same flight. * We had met before, so this wasn't some weird stalking thing. At least, not completely. |
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We have no need to know the intentions. He was given conditions to follow as part of his release and chose to violate one of them. There appropriately are likely to be consequences for doing that. |
The Biden Presidency - 2020
Yes yes no need to figure out if someone’s saying something that is BS. No need to question whether or not someone might say something that is totally BS when it proves your BS wrong within one page of a forum thread. Instead of saying yeah I guess I am wrong on that one you simply say, “meh, I’m not wrong because you shouldn’t think about the fucking point from before…. Poof it’s gone so thus I am not wrong!” Same with your twisting of data and stats. You’re not wrong because we’re not looking at it right… all of us. Such BS dude.
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I agree with all of this. |
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Since my older daughter is trying to start her own life up there and my other daughter is considering NKU, we might have a chance to meet at some point. |
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I don't even have to travel for that one, that's easy. Absolutely, hit me up whenever you're heading this way with time. I've got one in Richmond, but he comes home almost every weekend, so we're not going that way very much rn. |
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I've been wrong and said so on a number of occasions on this forum in the past. It's absurd to claim I should say that though just because the consensus goes another direction. I'm not going to abandon logic and fundamental basics of evaluating data just because other people think I should. There were times when the consensus held that the earth was the center of the cosmos, that there were no particles smaller than an atom, etc. Modern polling is strewn with examples of concepts where the majority of people are just flat-out wrong. People disagreeing with a stance doesn't at all demonstrate that stance is incorrect. |
I endorse grabbing a beer with PilotMan.
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