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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

Fidatelo 04-01-2020 04:41 PM

I don't really get trying to equate COVID deaths vs. any other existing reason for death, or necessarily that the overall death rate even matters. It's an entire new thing to die from. It's additive. It doesn't matter if we normally have X people dying per day, and COVID is like X(.7). That's still x(.7) MORE DEAD PEOPLE. The other X are still also dying, for all the same old reasons. Yeah maybe COVID gets a little early credit for some of the X that were on their way out anyways, but still. This is a whole new way to die, that our psyche and medical systems were not prepared for.

Brian Swartz 04-01-2020 04:45 PM

Our psyche should have been prepared for it, but aside from that it's about putting it in appropriate context. I.e., how much is worth shutting down large sections of the economy for, and for how long. How much should we obsess over it compared to other causes that we blithely accept/try not to think too much about/etc. It's about perspective and having our head screwed on straight.

Kodos 04-01-2020 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272839)
how much is worth shutting down large sections of the economy for, and for how long


I start to get uncomfortable anytime someone starts down the "when is it too expensive to save peoples' lives" trail.

Brian Swartz 04-01-2020 05:00 PM

I totally agree with you that it's uncomfortable. As I said a day or two ago though, the concerns essentially overlap. People die all the time, thankfully far less in this country than it happens elsewhere but still, because of economic issues. Consider just those who get addicted to opiods and overdose, or those who ration insulin due to the high price, etc.

tarcone 04-01-2020 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3272840)
I start to get uncomfortable anytime someone starts down the "when is it too expensive to save peoples' lives" trail.


To the rich money>people, unless its them.

People are a resource that is basically endless. There are always people looking for work.

panerd 04-01-2020 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3272840)
I start to get uncomfortable anytime someone starts down the "when is it too expensive to save peoples' lives" trail.


I'm not there yet but I am seeing online a very shortsighted money vs lives arguement when in reality it is lives vs lives. Not going to do a super thorough search because just making a point but people die due to bad economies. Again it seems worth saving lives now and that we are saving a lot of lives but at some point the economic hit will be worse, much worse. This would be 2008, I'm sure the great depression is a lot worse.

Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study
Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study

Harvard University › hsph › news
Global economic downturn linked with at least 260,000 excess cancer deaths | News | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health - Harvard University

Forbes › sites › 2014/06/12 › m...
More Than 10,000 Suicides Tied To Economic Crisis, Study Says - Forbes

panerd 04-01-2020 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3272842)
To the rich money>people, unless its them.

People are a resource that is basically endless. There are always people looking for work.


I dont think it's the rich who suffer the most with a collapsed economy. In fact they recover the quickest.

whomario 04-01-2020 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272835)
We're not having the cohesive response needed, though parts of it are good, but we're not Italy. It might be sheer luck that we're not, but still.


Remember that first you need a sufficient number of infected to 'create' enough momentum to truly have it explode. And many positive tests today were likely infected more than a week ago and most deaths 2 weeks ago or more. So really you are always looking at the past when seeing those numbers.

And since the US really only started seriously testing and thus also reliably identifying subsequents deaths as being infected prior to them dying around March 22nd, everything before that now seems to good to have been true. Italy did the same progression to more testing and thus exploding Cases around March 8th and their death numbers truly exploded about 12 days later with a couple steps in between.

Now i dont expect the US as a whole to come close in per-capita numbers due to a number of reasons (more capacity, different social structure, large distances) but it won't remotely stay at current levels i'm afraid.

RainMaker 04-01-2020 05:42 PM


cuervo72 04-01-2020 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fidatelo (Post 3272838)
I don't really get trying to equate COVID deaths vs. any other existing reason for death, or necessarily that the overall death rate even matters. It's an entire new thing to die from. It's additive. It doesn't matter if we normally have X people dying per day, and COVID is like X(.7). That's still x(.7) MORE DEAD PEOPLE. The other X are still also dying, for all the same old reasons. Yeah maybe COVID gets a little early credit for some of the X that were on their way out anyways, but still. This is a whole new way to die, that our psyche and medical systems were not prepared for.


Or the point that they just made on the news (NYC guidelines: if you don't have a pulse, don't send someone to the hospital in hopes of revival), you are going to see MORE people dying of the other things because services that normally could save them may not be able to.

whomario 04-01-2020 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by panerd (Post 3272844)
I'm not there yet but I am seeing online a very shortsighted money vs lives arguement when in reality it is lives vs lives. Not going to do a super thorough search because just making a point but people die due to bad economies. Again it seems worth saving lives now and that we are saving a lot of lives but at some point the economic hit will be worse, much worse. This would be 2008, I'm sure the great depression is a lot worse.

Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study
Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study

Harvard University › hsph › news
Global economic downturn linked with at least 260,000 excess cancer deaths | News | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health - Harvard University

Forbes › sites › 2014/06/12 › m...
More Than 10,000 Suicides Tied To Economic Crisis, Study Says - Forbes



The hospitals and doctors Offices even more hopelessly overflowing with Coronavirus patients (and tons of healthcare workers getting infected and out of comission) would also lead to a lot more non-Covid deaths in the short and longterm.

The only way to create this trade-off (rather Covid deaths than others) would be if you just let them die and were somehow as a nation able to ignore that growing mountain of bodies stacked in the corner, so to speak.

Fidatelo 04-01-2020 05:54 PM

I'm not a fan of the 'the economy kills people, too' argument, either. I don't remember chaotic scenes inside hospitals in 2008 as they were overwhelmed with the dead.

RainMaker 04-01-2020 05:55 PM

I don't understand what people think can be done about the economy. If they ended all these orders, do you think the economy would just get right back on track? Do you think restaurants would be packed?

There are some dummies who will do their thing but as the bodies pile up, I don't see most people putting themselves in danger to attend a sporting event or go out to dinner. Ask yourself, would you attend a Knicks game in New York tonight with 20,000 people?

The economy isn't bad because of lockdowns and quarantines. It's bad because of the virus. It comes back when the virus is contained and/or controlled. There is no alternative route.

Arles 04-01-2020 05:57 PM

An interesting idea is setting up a way where people who had the disease (and are no longer contagious) could get some kind of "clearance" to do jobs involving more people. I'm not sure how feasible it is, but as more people get this (and recover), we may want to look at ways to leverage the immunity a certain percentage have.

RainMaker 04-01-2020 05:58 PM

Also for those comparing numbers, the 100k-240k death total is if we do all this distancing crap. If we did nothing it would be in the millions according to most models.

How do you think a country reacts to seeing 2-3 million people wiped out in the next 6 months? Your options are open things up, maybe see a little better economy, and have millions dead. Or keep things shut down, have a bad economy for a year, and see 100k deaths. I don't know how you can argue for the first one.

miami_fan 04-01-2020 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3272530)
The carrier Theodore Roosevelt has over 200 cases and the Captain is asking for removing all personnel.


Good news! Hope they make it through safely.

https://apnews.com/cabbd6ade631320d515b365a6cb4c971

Quote:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 3,000 sailors aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier where the coronavirus has spread will be taken off the ship by Friday, Navy officials said Wednesday as they struggle to quarantine crew members in the face of an outbreak.

Fidatelo 04-01-2020 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272839)
Our psyche should have been prepared for it



Really? Yes, deep down everyone knows that a pandemic is a possibility. But that's like saying deep down we also know that California could fall into the sea. Or that Yellowstone could erupt. It's true, but don't pretend anyone should be mentally prepared for it.

SirFozzie 04-01-2020 06:01 PM

An off-his-rocker Conspiracy theorist (is there any other type of conspiracy theorist?) deliberately crashed a train to prove the hospital ship USNS Mercy was part of a government take over. Folks, we're through the looking glass here.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...mercy-n1174461

whomario 04-01-2020 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3272859)
Good news! Hope they make it through safely.

https://apnews.com/cabbd6ade631320d515b365a6cb4c971


Good for them that this charade is over (IIRC just Yesterday i read that command was still maintaining essentially they could do business as usual)

JPhillips 04-01-2020 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie (Post 3272861)
An off-his-rocker Conspiracy theorist (is there any other type of conspiracy theorist?) deliberately crashed a train to prove the hospital ship USNS Mercy was part of a government take over. Folks, we're through the looking glass here.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...mercy-n1174461


Shocking if he's not full Q.

Brian Swartz 04-01-2020 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fidatelo
Really? Yes, deep down everyone knows that a pandemic is a possibility. But that's like saying deep down we also know that California could fall into the sea. Or that Yellowstone could erupt. It's true, but don't pretend anyone should be mentally prepared for it.


It's not at all like those two things. Both of them are far less likely. As I said a few times near the start of this outbreak, we're collectively paying the price for assuming the future would be as good or better than the present, and it cuts across many levels and aspects of society. I'm guilty of it myself, but I'm not going to pretend that's down to anything but my own hubris.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker
How do you think a country reacts to seeing 2-3 million people wiped out in the next 6 months? Your options are open things up, maybe see a little better economy, and have millions dead. Or keep things shut down, have a bad economy for a year, and see 100k deaths. I don't know how you can argue for the first one.


Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario
The hospitals and doctors Offices even more hopelessly overflowing with Coronavirus patients (and tons of healthcare workers getting infected and out of comission) would also lead to a lot more non-Covid deaths in the short and longterm.


Just using these as representative of this POV. I totally agree that it's necessary to deal with the virus, and exactly for the stated reason of medical capacity being overwhelmed and all the extra deaths that would entail. At the same time, an extended economic shutdown would almost certainly cost more than 100k deaths from everything I know.

Pointing out that people will die to the depression we're entering into here is not the same thing as advocating for no restrictions or saying it isn't justified. I've got relatives who are against the shutdown and I've used pretty much the exact same argument being made here. When this balancing act becomes relevant is in terms of how soon you open things back up once the virus is under some reasonable level of control. The cultural impact of it also has a price.

My main point is just to have some balance in the equation, and facing reality means facing the fact that people will die because of this (necessary) action. And that means the tradeoff isn't purely money for lives. It's more nuanced and complex than that. .

tarcone 04-01-2020 06:52 PM

If 2-3 million die in 6 months what does that do to the economy? Surely there would cause some serious issues.

Brian Swartz 04-01-2020 06:58 PM

In other news, another American first - first to report a thousand deaths in a day. Yes I know there's actually more across the board blah blah blah.

Atocep 04-01-2020 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fidatelo (Post 3272854)
I'm not a fan of the 'the economy kills people, too' argument, either. I don't remember chaotic scenes inside hospitals in 2008 as they were overwhelmed with the dead.


You obviously don't remember the death panels.

JPhillips 04-01-2020 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272872)
It's not at all like those two things. Both of them are far less likely. As I said a few times near the start of this outbreak, we're collectively paying the price for assuming the future would be as good or better than the present, and it cuts across many levels and aspects of society. I'm guilty of it myself, but I'm not going to pretend that's down to anything but my own hubris.





Just using these as representative of this POV. I totally agree that it's necessary to deal with the virus, and exactly for the stated reason of medical capacity being overwhelmed and all the extra deaths that would entail. At the same time, an extended economic shutdown would almost certainly cost more than 100k deaths from everything I know.

Pointing out that people will die to the depression we're entering into here is not the same thing as advocating for no restrictions or saying it isn't justified. I've got relatives who are against the shutdown and I've used pretty much the exact same argument being made here. When this balancing act becomes relevant is in terms of how soon you open things back up once the virus is under some reasonable level of control. The cultural impact of it also has a price.

My main point is just to have some balance in the equation, and facing reality means facing the fact that people will die because of this (necessary) action. And that means the tradeoff isn't purely money for lives. It's more nuanced and complex than that. .


Studies after this period will be fascinating. In NYC there's a much greater incidence of domestic violence already, but fewer auto accidents and non-family violent crime.

Edward64 04-01-2020 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272874)
In other news, another American first - first to report a thousand deaths in a day. Yes I know there's actually more across the board blah blah blah.


It was only like 2 Mondays ago where we hit 100. Now we are over 5,000+ dead and 1,000 a day.

Not sure we have the info but assume these deaths are not because they did not get ventilators or medicines. They died in spite of our best efforts (e.g. lack of effective therapeutics).

Brian Swartz 04-01-2020 07:21 PM

I don't think ventilators are the issue … yet. NYC is talking about it becoming one soon, but so far they've kept ahead of that happening yet. So yeah, despite best efforts.

About 20 mins away from me another nursing home outbreak was announced yesterday. Unfortunately there will almost certainly be a number there that don't recover.

Glengoyne 04-01-2020 07:23 PM

it's been so long since I've posted here, I feel like a visitor. I still read from time to time, but it took a Pandemic and me wondering what all of you were thinking to get me back here to actually post.

I'm with Rainmaker in thinking that even if the "shelter in place" orders were lifted, the economy would still continue to take a hit.

I am starting to think that we're not going to be back to business as usual until there is a vaccine for this thing. Unless the virus disappears not to return when the weather turns hot, this is going to continue to reshape the world until it we can "manage" it. When will it be okay to risk your life or the lives of those that live with you to: Go to a football game? Go to a concert? Go to a restaurant? Go to school?

I think that barring the virus disappearing as quickly as it appeared, we're shut down for the long haul. A year or two. The implications of that are hard to grasp, but I can't imagine us just saying "yeah we're going to just grin and bear it".

PilotMan 04-01-2020 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272879)
About 20 mins away from me another nursing home outbreak was announced yesterday. Unfortunately there will almost certainly be a number there that don't recover.



The first nursing home breakout has happened here in NKY. About 20 min away, one resident and two workers. Have to believe with two workers infected, there's more than one resident infected.

PilotMan 04-01-2020 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne (Post 3272881)
I think that barring the virus disappearing as quickly as it appeared, we're shut down for the long haul. A year or two. The implications of that are hard to grasp, but I can't imagine us just saying "yeah we're going to just grin and bear it".





If this is indeed the case, I will be out of a job, and the airline mergers will start.

Edward64 04-01-2020 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne (Post 3272881)
it's been so long since I've posted here, I feel like a visitor. I still read from time to time, but it took a Pandemic and me wondering what all of you were thinking to get me back here to actually post.


Welcome back!

Jas_lov 04-01-2020 07:32 PM

I can't see us getting back to normal anytime soon either. And I wonder if the entire baseball and football seasons will be cancelled. I can't imagine we'll get back to having 80,000 people packed in a Stadium this year. Maybe if they get more testing but can you test everybody all the time?

tarcone 04-01-2020 07:34 PM

HEY! AT LEAST WE GOT $1200!

Brian Swartz 04-01-2020 07:36 PM

I don't' think there's any way it takes a year or two. That simply isn't sustainable, regardless of how much we might want it to be. If the world largely tries that, you run out of money to borrow, and just printing more would only make things worse.

Plus it's likely to regress in the summer with warmer weather, therapeutic med trials will be completed well before then, possibly even a vaccine in that timeframe, and the virus will naturally weaken at least some due to natural mutation.

Arles 04-01-2020 07:49 PM

There will be a point where people hit their limit with this (financially and mentally) and the virus will be less of a threat. My guess is this will happen around June. I think April and May will be pretty tough and sports will start back in June (albeit without fans in the stadium).

Especially for sports, the TV deals are big money to go without. People will convince themselves it's OK for MLB and the NBA to play in empty stadiums by June (IMO). Not sure when restaurants/bars will be back to normal - that probably won't happen until the fall. But, I expect a relax on this "shelter in place" by June.

Arles 04-01-2020 07:54 PM

dola - Interesting question from one of the guys I work with today: If we assume that the nation won't have the stomach/financial ability to shelter in place until September/October - would it better to relax a lot of the constraints in July?

His reasoning was viruses usually don't do as well in the summer due to the heat, low point in allergies in many regions and other factors. So, isn't it better to let it propagate more in July/August than October/November when it could take hold in a serious way again?

Not sure what the answer is, but it made me think.

molson 04-01-2020 08:07 PM

We'll see a lot from Europe first how gradually re-opening things over the next few months impacts the numbers. It looks like the Nordic countries (filled with people for whom social distance is part of life in regular times) seem eager to start the process pretty shortly.

You don't have to pick one side or the other between fighting the virus or salvaging the economy. Both are critical. If the economy doesn't matter, why bother with a stimulus package? We could have used that time, and resources, and borrowing, to more directly attack the virus instead, instead of worrying about people eating and salvaging some businesses and jobs. Obviously lives are at stake in both battles. It's just like a war where you have an enemy on both sides. If either are ignored, you're fucked. But timing of distributing resources matters. And there's always some maneuvers and plans that can fight one enemy that don't necessarily involve losing ground against the other enemy.

Arles 04-01-2020 08:15 PM

I just can’t see us having the ability/stomach to keep this going past September. And lifting the restrictions in Sept/Oct seems a lot more dangerous than late June/July in terms of allowing the virus to do damage. And it’s not like people are going to be flocking to concerts/sporting events if things do get relaxed a bit.

JPhillips 04-01-2020 08:26 PM

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

I mentioned it earlier, and here's a link to the former Trump FDA head's re-opening plan. It's very good.

thesloppy 04-01-2020 08:27 PM

I think when we get back to normal is largely going to be decided by hospital & healthcare capacity/overload. Regardless of how stir crazy people get you can't ease restrictions if it means that little Timmy goes to the skate park, breaks his leg, then can't ever walk again or dies of an infection, because there weren't any beds available at the local hospital.

Lathum 04-01-2020 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272798)
Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.


Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

NobodyHere 04-01-2020 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3272897)


Stupid articles, discriminating against robots...


NobodyHere 04-01-2020 08:44 PM

So it looks like my coworker had her wallet stolen, allegedly by another coworker.

I wish her good luck getting her ID back when most government services are shut down.

miami_fan 04-01-2020 09:05 PM

I keep coming back to the language that I heard and hear from most of the medical experts. For the most part they have said something to the effect of If we don't do these X number of things then horrible things will happen. We have spent the better part of the last month plus trying not to do the X number things, and yes horrible things have happened. I am optimistic that we finally have arrived at a point where we are actually serious doing those X number of things. I don't think we are going to see too many people throwing coronavirus parties any more.

I don't think this will last through the summer. Provided we do those X number of things nationwide, I think we will be in a place to reopen slowly. I think we will get to a point where people will identify symptoms, think coronavirus first as opposed to just a cold or just the flu and take whatever the precautions need to be taken. People will understand that just fighting through it may not be a good idea given what it might be and what the possible end. I think we need to prepare for the tens of cases that will pop up but be vigilant that we don't allow it.

sterlingice 04-01-2020 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3272855)
There are some dummies who will do their thing but as the bodies pile up, I don't see most people putting themselves in danger to attend a sporting event or go out to dinner. Ask yourself, would you attend a Knicks game in New York tonight with 20,000 people?


Trick question. There weren't 20K people paying to watch the crappy Knicks before Coronavirus :p

SI

sterlingice 04-01-2020 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne (Post 3272881)
it's been so long since I've posted here, I feel like a visitor. I still read from time to time, but it took a Pandemic and me wondering what all of you were thinking to get me back here to actually post.

I'm with Rainmaker in thinking that even if the "shelter in place" orders were lifted, the economy would still continue to take a hit.

I am starting to think that we're not going to be back to business as usual until there is a vaccine for this thing. Unless the virus disappears not to return when the weather turns hot, this is going to continue to reshape the world until it we can "manage" it. When will it be okay to risk your life or the lives of those that live with you to: Go to a football game? Go to a concert? Go to a restaurant? Go to school?

I think that barring the virus disappearing as quickly as it appeared, we're shut down for the long haul. A year or two. The implications of that are hard to grasp, but I can't imagine us just saying "yeah we're going to just grin and bear it".



WB! I came back for the same reason a couple of weeks ago! Can we get some cool nickname like COVID compadres? Coronavirus companions? Retrovirus returners?


SI

RainMaker 04-01-2020 10:07 PM

Exponential growth does not go on forever. At some point enough people have contracted the virus and recovered that you have some herd immunity. I think projections for the numbers dropping off a lot are between end of June or July depending on where you live.

When things open up, there will be another wave, but it will be far less people and enough for the health care system to handle it. Hopefully there will be some drugs or techniques to fight it by then too.

For older people, I do think it's going to be a rough year or two. Nursing homes may require an antibody or negative test before you can enter the premises. Others will have to avoid crowds as much as possible.

RainMaker 04-01-2020 10:10 PM

Worth mentioning that we will probably never have an accurate accounting of deaths from this. Whether it be for lack of tests (are doctors going to waste a limited test on someone who is dead?) or political reasons. Some estimates in Italy have the actual number at 4 times what is being reported. They've only been recording those who die at a hospital with a positive test. Not people who died in their homes or at nursing homes.


JPhillips 04-01-2020 10:19 PM

Sure reads like neither the Sec. of the Navy or Sec. of Defense is happy with the Captain of the Roosevelt. The guy should be honored for doing what needed to be done to save his sailors.

Arles 04-01-2020 10:27 PM

Yeah, I think we are woefully undercounting actual cases and somewhat undercounting the death numbers. My best guess is we have 10X more cases and 2X more deaths, but it is really tough to know with any degree of certainty.

I think we take it month to month and see how it goes. And in the same way I couldn’t see Trump’s Easter comments happening, I don’t see a scenario where we are all in “Shelter in place” still in July.

cuervo72 04-01-2020 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie (Post 3272861)
An off-his-rocker Conspiracy theorist (is there any other type of conspiracy theorist?) deliberately crashed a train to prove the hospital ship USNS Mercy was part of a government take over. Folks, we're through the looking glass here.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...mercy-n1174461


Quote:

Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro, California, was charged with one count under a little-known train-wrecking statute

That phrase makes me grin, right there.

Ben E Lou 04-02-2020 02:55 AM

If kids return to school this fall (or to camps this summer,) what happens? Does the virus spread wildly among them, but with mostly mild/no symptoms? Does that mean we must continue to isolate their grandparents and the immunocompromised? Does there exist a path where a significant portion of the population can feel safe before the 12-18 month mark when there’s a vaccine? I would think we’d need MASSIVE testing to determine who has and hasn’t built up immunity. Again, as I mentioned well up thread, my entire family had an unknown respiratory illness with fever back in mid/late Feb. If none of us gets it for sure before the return to normalcy, there’s no way to know if we’re immune without mass testing.

Glengoyne 04-02-2020 03:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3272894)
https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

I mentioned it earlier, and here's a link to the former Trump FDA head's re-opening plan. It's very good.



That is a good article. A rational approach, rooted in the ongoing collection and analysis of data. Unfortunately, collecting data hasn't been one of our strong points in this conflict. If we can start testing without any constraints, really isolating new patients, and using some of the methods to track transmission that were used to good effect in parts of Asia, I can see the public supporting the reduction of social distancing measures.

That is a lot of ifs, but hopefully someone is putting the time that shelter in place is buying us to good use.

whomario 04-02-2020 05:45 AM

The US just snatched up 3.5 mio newly produced masks pretty much off the runway that were ordered, already paid for and desperately needed by France. By paying 3x the amount without even inspecting them.

Be glad, but be aware at the cost elsewhere when you hear of the US 'procuring' masks. And be aware that there will be dud deliveries like the severely substandard tests for Spain or another shipment of masks to the Netherlands the other day.

Brian Swartz 04-02-2020 06:04 AM

I'm not even going to be glad. I know you weren't necessarily saying this, but I don't think a US life is more valuable than a French one. If France had already paid for them, that's where they should go.

miami_fan 04-02-2020 06:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3272908)
Sure reads like neither the Sec. of the Navy or Sec. of Defense is happy with the Captain of the Roosevelt. The guy should be honored for doing what needed to be done to save his sailors.


Last I read the SECDEF and SECNAV were both saying the right things but it might have changed. It is the same situation as the hospitals, their staff and the PPE. I highly doubt that the Captain only wrote that one letter.

MIJB#19 04-02-2020 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3272915)
The US just snatched up 3.5 mio newly produced masks pretty much off the runway that were ordered, already paid for and desperately needed by France. By paying 3x the amount without even inspecting them.

Be glad, but be aware at the cost elsewhere when you hear of the US 'procuring' masks. And be aware that there will be dud deliveries like the severely substandard tests for Spain or another shipment of masks to the Netherlands the other day.

Yeah, 600,000 useless masks, of which several had already been taken into use by hospital employees. "Made in China", by no means meant Chinaphobic, but it's not uncommon with products labeled as such to turn out to br below safety standards.

whomario 04-02-2020 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272916)
I'm not even going to be glad. I know you weren't necessarily saying this, but I don't think a US life is more valuable than a French one. If France had already paid for them, that's where they should go.


Was more referring to future news without such specifics :) Every mask one country gets (mostly from china) there is a decent chance someone else missed out on a done deal and a 100% chance those masks are definitely missing somewhere else.

It just is an insane situation and IMO explains fully why most countries, especially bigger ones are less than eager to go to a "You have to wear a mask, period" state. because while some will make their own, you can also be sure a lot more individual buyers or individual cities f.e. will add to those pressures.

And it is paramount that every country gets cracking on getting current manufacturers what they need to expand and others to change their production to PPE if possible.

whomario 04-02-2020 06:49 AM

I think this is a good, short read on challenges beyond the obvious that a highly infectious desease like this presents in hospitals. And why it is almost impossible to put the genie back in the bottle once you are 'run over' by patients:

Coronavirus: My Queens, New York hospital is at the center of the US crisis - Vox

The things she talks about really are things hospitals outside the current 'hotspots' need to do now and not when they are already swamped.

Edward64 04-02-2020 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3272912)
If kids return to school this fall (or to camps this summer,) what happens? Does the virus spread wildly among them, but with mostly mild/no symptoms? Does that mean we must continue to isolate their grandparents and the immunocompromised? Does there exist a path where a significant portion of the population can feel safe before the 12-18 month mark when there’s a vaccine? I would think we’d need MASSIVE testing to determine who has and hasn’t built up immunity. Again, as I mentioned well up thread, my entire family had an unknown respiratory illness with fever back in mid/late Feb. If none of us gets it for sure before the return to normalcy, there’s no way to know if we’re immune without mass testing.


I didn't watch all of the daily briefing yesterday (so may have missed a clarification, follow-up question) but Fauci said testing for anti-bodies was lower on the priority list.

I'm not sure I understood this but assume although we can test for anti-bodies now, those testing facilities/resources are better used to test if someone has it or not (and not whether someone already had it and recovered).

So yes, I think after we are over this hump there will be a lot of anti-bodies testing by this summer.

Edward64 04-02-2020 07:02 AM

More US unemployment nos. this morning. This should be fun ...

EDIT:

Quote:

The Labor Department reported more than 6 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the week of March 27. Economists expected another 4 million to 5 million workers filed for jobless claims last week as coronavirus-related shutdowns roll through the country. The estimates ranged as high as 9 million.

Brian Swartz 04-02-2020 07:11 AM

I'm sure states have done similar things elsewhere, but in MI filing for unemployment is now split by last name; half each on alternating days. That's a bit of a sign how well the infrastructure is holding up to the demand.

Edward64 04-02-2020 07:43 AM

A little bit of good news ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/whit...e-changer.html
Quote:

The first human trial testing a potential vaccine to prevent COVID-19 is “on track” with public distribution still projected in 12 to 18 months, which would be the “ultimate game changer” in the fight against the pandemic, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday.

U.S. health officials have been fast-tracking work with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine to prevent COVID-19. They began their first human trials on a potential vaccine March 16.

The trial had to test three different doses of the vaccine, Fauci said, adding that they’ve already tested the first two doses and are now administering the highest dose to human volunteers to see if there are any adverse reactions to it.

“It’ll take a few months to get the data to where we’ll feel confident to go to the phase two, and then a few months from now we’ll be in phase two and I think we’re right on target for the year to year and a half,” Fauci said at a White House press conference with President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force.

I wonder what the process is for these drug trials. Obviously some company has an opportunity to make a lot of money.

So let's say Moderna is showing good initial results, are they sharing what they are testing so other companies around the world can help out (e.g. speed up the process, do a broader trial etc.)? Additionally, wouldn't they be worried if another company claims they have the vaccine first (e.g. maybe because they were not as rigorous as Moderna and cut corners)?

Moderna doesn't seem to have financial incentive to share anything but yet they are obligated, ethically to do so. I'm guessing they are protected by IP or patents etc. somehow but not sure all that really helps in this global crisis scenario.

JPhillips 04-02-2020 08:33 AM

Quote:

[i]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.

GA Governor, YESTERDAY! How could he not know that before yesterday?

bob 04-02-2020 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3272934)
GA Governor, YESTERDAY! How could he not know that before yesterday?


i saw this online:

"There's a kernel of truth to what Kemp said about asymptomatic spreading, though he did a poor job explaining it.

It's old news that COVID-19 could spread without symptoms, but it's very recently that there's growing scientific support behind the idea that a huge portion of cases may have come from asymptomatic shedding. That's unusual compared to similar viruses.

Even the CDC is starting to re-evaluate recommendations (e.g., should the general public wear masks when not sick) because they weren't expecting these carriers to be this big of a problem just a couple weeks ago."

tyketime 04-02-2020 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3272798)
Florida now issuing statewide stay-at-home.

But don't worry - golfing is still considered an "essential" recreational activity.

Quote:

Golf received an OK under Florida's stay-at-home advisory, though other activities will be curtailed amid concerns the coronavirus is starting to take hold in there.
It's not being on the golf course. It's all the support workers necessary to maintain and run the operation which is what I object even more to...

Thomkal 04-02-2020 10:14 AM

Wimbledon cancelled for this year.

Edward64 04-02-2020 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3272972)
Wimbledon cancelled for this year.


Not a fan of tennis but I think Wimbledon (and Golf) can be still be played on TV without any crowds (and with some additional controls). Not appropriate anytime soon because of all the deaths but once we get over the jump, I wouldn't mind it to help morale and getting back to sense of normalcy.

I think everyone all over the world is feeling like shit right now.

panerd 04-02-2020 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3272976)
Not a fan of tennis but I think Wimbledon (and Golf) can be still be played on TV without any crowds (and with some additional controls). Not appropriate anytime soon because of all the deaths but once we get over the jump, I wouldn't mind it to help morale and getting back to sense of normalcy.

I think everyone all over the world is feeling like shit right now.


My guess is it's the production. I would assume cameramen, video editing truck, announcers, security etc would be closer together than the two players. Agree though that sports would be great for morale and a huge boom for whatever league starts televising. (I haven't watched tennis in years but am so starved for sports I would probably watch tennis or golf)

I have a feeling that the NBA jump started the getting off our butts and doing something and they will probably lead the way in getting back to televising games etc.

SirFozzie 04-02-2020 10:39 AM

A huge tournament like Wimbledon can't be held really, even after the peaks. Not just the players and the officials and the cameramen, but all the support staff that are required to maintain the court.

JPhillips 04-02-2020 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 3272936)
i saw this online:

"There's a kernel of truth to what Kemp said about asymptomatic spreading, though he did a poor job explaining it.

It's old news that COVID-19 could spread without symptoms, but it's very recently that there's growing scientific support behind the idea that a huge portion of cases may have come from asymptomatic shedding. That's unusual compared to similar viruses.

Even the CDC is starting to re-evaluate recommendations (e.g., should the general public wear masks when not sick) because they weren't expecting these carriers to be this big of a problem just a couple weeks ago."


But, in the last 24 hours?

Flasch186 04-02-2020 10:58 AM

I'm hearing more and more people toe the line of "Maybe this was planned by China" that leads me to believe that the conspiracy theorists and trolls are making headway. Sigh

miked 04-02-2020 11:21 AM

Yeah, I wonder what will happen with soccer. ATLUTD typically sells out every game, with some north of 70k crammed together. We are certainly second guessing our season ticket renewal as it is expensive ($3k for 4 seats) and the crowds. I imagine there are a ton of people across all sports that will be second guessing their season tickets.

Edward64 04-02-2020 11:29 AM

Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?

ISiddiqui 04-02-2020 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3272993)
Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?


Idiots who still think this is all a media hoax?

SirFozzie 04-02-2020 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3272993)
Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?


Folks who think that the media is pushing this as "fake news" to harm the president. That he's "brainwashing" the President into not taking the actions needed. That he's part of the "Deep State".

I shit you not.

NobodyHere 04-02-2020 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3272993)
Who the heck would want to harm Fauci?


Some guy just derailed a train because of the presence of a virus relief ship. There are plenty of idiots out there.

tarcone 04-02-2020 11:39 AM

A silver lining to this is that Murders are way down in St. Louis. And I imagine in most cities.

I guess thats something.

Arles 04-02-2020 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3272921)
And it is paramount that every country gets cracking on getting current manufacturers what they need to expand and others to change their production to PPE if possible.

On of my friends works at the Honeywell down the street from my plant. He sent me this:

Honeywell Further Expands N95 Face Mask Production By Adding Manufacturing Capabilities In Phoenix

Quote:

Honeywell (NYSE: HON) today announced that it is adding manufacturing capabilities in Phoenix to produce N95 face masks in support of the U.S. government’s response to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

The company’s Phoenix expansion, coupled with previously announced new production in Rhode Island, will allow Honeywell to produce more than 20 million N95 disposable masks monthly to combat COVID-19 in the U.S. New manufacturing equipment to support the effort will arrive in Phoenix beginning this week.

“We at Honeywell are proud of our role in providing essential equipment to the first responders and medical professionals we are relying on during this crisis,” said Darius Adamczyk, Honeywell chairman and chief executive officer. “We have moved quickly to expand our production capacity for N95 masks globally and are pleased to announce our second new U.S. manufacturing line to supply the Strategic National Stockpile.”

Honeywell anticipates that the new mask production line in Phoenix will create more than 500 new jobs in Arizona. The company has already begun recruiting, hiring and training manufacturing workers on the site. Today’s announcement brings the total number of U.S. jobs created by Honeywell’s new mask manufacturing capabilities to more than 1,000.

The N95 face masks will be delivered to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to contribute to the American stockpile for use to support health, safety and emergency response workers. The Phoenix facility will prioritize fulfilling the U.S. government’s procurement, but it will also have the capacity to produce face masks for U.S. states and American healthcare and emergency response organizations.

Pretty good news on all fronts. 20 mil masks a month plus another 500 jobs created.

miami_fan 04-02-2020 12:31 PM

I am fascinated to see how the American sports viewing public will receive televised games without fans and the normal atmosphere of sports here. Watching PSG v Dortmund on the IPAD at the same time Liverpool v Atlético Madrid was surreal. We are desperate so we will probably eat it up but it is definitely an adjustment.

The seven second delay better be working as you can definitely hear every word that is said on the field.

Edward64 04-02-2020 12:47 PM

Take this FWIW.

Wife received a text message from BIL who talked to a FDA friend. Friend said that cases of coronavirus is rising among the food processors and truckers. Friend said there will likely be shortages of vegetables and meat in the coming weeks.

Wife went to Costco, said there is a 30 min line outside and Costco is limiting no. of people in the store. She is going to Target/Walmart instead to buy meats we can freeze, frozen vegetables and top off the fresh vegetables.

Heard from a friend who heard from a friend and some stuff could be lost in translation.

RainMaker 04-02-2020 12:53 PM

I was going to buy a freezer for the basement but apparently those are all sold out too.

Edward64 04-02-2020 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3273008)
I was going to buy a freezer for the basement but apparently those are all sold out too.


Yeah, we got one and definitely comes in handy.

We have more food in the house than we've ever had before. Unfortunately more snacks also and I'm losing the waist battle.

Arles 04-02-2020 12:58 PM

There's a local Texas Roadhouse near us that is selling uncooked steaks individually for between $7 and $10 (filet). We got 4 steaks (ribeyes and filets) for around $35. They are pretty high quality and I think we may continue to do that every couple weeks if quality meat is harder to come by in stores (plus it helps keep them in business). We've stocked up on ground turkey, some ground beef and diced chicken - but it's been hard to find a good steak and this filled that void.

whomario 04-02-2020 01:02 PM

One sneaky hot seller here have been stuff like paint, garden tools and soil (up like 500%)


Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3273006)
Take this FWIW.

Wife received a text message from BIL who talked to a FDA friend. Friend said that cases of coronavirus is rising among the food processors and truckers. Friend said there will likely be shortages of vegetables and meat in the coming weeks.

Wife went to Costco, said there is a 30 min line outside and Costco is limiting no. of people in the store. She is going to Target/Walmart instead to buy meats we can freeze, frozen vegetables and top off the fresh vegetables.

Heard from a friend who heard from a friend and some stuff could be lost in translation.


And that's the reason why there are shortages ;)

Not saying there aren't issues in production/delivery but seeing some of the increases here (like an utterly insane 2500 % for canned goods or 150% increase on pasta) that'd be a loooot of extra man hours to make up for that.

whomario 04-02-2020 01:07 PM

Scored a pack of Toiletpaper for my neighbours today though, so i take this as a good sign ;)

Brian Swartz 04-02-2020 01:07 PM

Yep. Everybody will be better off if everyone doesn't try to buy enough for two months (not saying people here are doing that, just in general). Where I'm at, supply of stuff is recovering pretty well. Bread and eggs were hard to come by two weeks ago, not anymore. TP is around occasionally, and potatoes that there was an initial run on. Flour, rice still a bit sketchy and a lot of things are lower than usual, but what I see is supply trending in the right direction.

RainMaker 04-02-2020 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie (Post 3272995)
Folks who think that the media is pushing this as "fake news" to harm the president. That he's "brainwashing" the President into not taking the actions needed. That he's part of the "Deep State".

I shit you not.


The President said he was part of the deep state during a press conference a week ago. Not surprised his followers would believe that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3273010)
Yeah, we got one and definitely comes in handy.

We have more food in the house than we've ever had before. Unfortunately more snacks also and I'm losing the waist battle.


Yeah I'd claim it was for frozen veggies and meat but it would just end up filled with frozen pizzas and crap.

For what it's worth, one of my brothers works as a scientist for a major food company. They own one of the biggest frozen food companies in the world (you would know their name). He said that the plants have been working like normal so far. Maybe that will change though.

RainMaker 04-02-2020 01:14 PM

The CDC is located in Georgia.


cartman 04-02-2020 01:16 PM

The 1 million confirmed cases milestone has been reached.

RainMaker 04-02-2020 01:17 PM

This is kind of an interesting article on the toilet paper shortage. It's not just about hoarding, it's about people being home more. So there is less commercial toilet paper being sold and more consumer. Makes sense that schools, offices, and so on would not need as much. Also mentions food too. Never really think about the consequences of people spending all their time at home means a huge shift in how certain products are distributed.

https://marker.medium.com/what-every...e-c812e1358fe0

Brian Swartz 04-02-2020 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker
The CDC is located in Georgia.


I don't … I can't even. I think this is clearly a lie, but it's a really stupid one. At this point just freaking come out and say what everyone knows already; we waited because we were afraid of the economic impact. Apologize for making the wrong choice and move on.

Arles 04-02-2020 01:26 PM

Yeah, the commercial side makes sense. I have to go into an isolated part of my work (maybe 4 people there) about once every 2 weeks. And there is huge stockpile of TP (knowing I could swipe a couple rolls there is one reason I haven't freaked out about the shortage at stores). I do think many people are hoarding it (many for resale at higher margins). You can find a ton for much higher prices on Ebay. My bet is a bunch of people lineup at 5 AM every morning to buy their roll from 4-5 places and sell it during this. Plus, you have the normal people freaking out and buying in bulk (it's not like TP goes bad).

I really think we will see more restaurants acting as high end meat markets and produce stores in the coming week. I've seen places like Z-Tejas offer a collection of pasta, produce and other items for like $100. Some steak places are selling uncooked meats directly and so forth. It's a good way for them to get a little money and leverage their wholesale connections.

Ben E Lou 04-02-2020 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3273019)
The CDC is located in Georgia. less than 15 minutes from the Georgia Governor's Estate.


fixed


Edward64 04-02-2020 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3273019)
The CDC is located in Georgia.


Pretty sure this is fake news. It got blown up in TWD second season (ah, those early seasons were fun!).

ISiddiqui 04-02-2020 01:37 PM

I just wanted to check because I know the CDC is super close to me (I go to restaurants across the street from it a bunch) - and I live 4.3miles from the CDC. When I went to Emory Law, my 1L parking was the parking lot that looked over the CDC.

Arles 04-02-2020 01:45 PM

Does this mean Kemp takes over for Trump as the new Bagdad Bob?


NobodyHere 04-02-2020 01:51 PM

Ohio has renewed their stay at home order until May 1st.

Businesses are now suppose to set limits on how many customers are allowed in their store at any given time.

miked 04-02-2020 01:52 PM

I'm on my way to EUH shortly, I'll check at the CDC first.

It should come as no surprise that Kemp waited, a few weeks ago he said he was only following the guidelines of Donald Trump himself.

Edward64 04-02-2020 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3273035)
Does this mean Kemp takes over for Trump as the new Bagdad Bob?


Oh com'on. Kemp is no where close to Bagdad Bob. He is one of a kind.

Trump may reach that level but he doesn't have the humorous entertainment value of Bagdad Bob.


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