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albionmoonlight 01-11-2019 09:28 AM

I'll just put this here:

I think that it is likely that Trump remains President until the 2020 election (which he may win or lose. Too far out for me to have a feeling about that one).

But, IF Trump does leave before then, a'la Nixon, it will not be a gradual thing. It won't be his approval going from 40 to 39 to 38 to 37 . . . and a GOP Senator coming out against him. And the next week another. Then a month later another one.

It will hit some tipping point, and then it will happen very quickly. On Monday, things will seem to be going like they've been. And by that Friday, it will be President Pence.

Again, I'm thinking that this does not happen at all. But if it does, it will be measured in days and hours, not weeks and months.

Radii 01-11-2019 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3228486)
The GOP had control of both houses and the WH for two years and didn't fund a wall. At no point did the WH or the GOP attempt serious negotiations with Senate Dems to get a wall. Funnily enough, it was the Dems who came to the table with a wall deal, only to have it rejected because it was a win-win instead of a GOP-gets-everything deal.

The wall is politically unpopular. The GOP just lost historic mid-terms running on the same baseless fear-mongering underlying the wall (remember the CARAVAN?). The GOP hasn't actually offered anything in exchange for Dems giving the GOP the Wall. And the whole thing is one of the more transparent political stunts in recent memory.

But, sure, it is technically correct that the Dems won't give the GOP everything it wants in exchange for nothing when the Dems have the political upper hand. So BOTHSIDES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



God bless you.

Thomkal 01-11-2019 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3228490)
I'll just put this here:

I think that it is likely that Trump remains President until the 2020 election (which he may win or lose. Too far out for me to have a feeling about that one).

But, IF Trump does leave before then, a'la Nixon, it will not be a gradual thing. It won't be his approval going from 40 to 39 to 38 to 37 . . . and a GOP Senator coming out against him. And the next week another. Then a month later another one.

It will hit some tipping point, and then it will happen very quickly. On Monday, things will seem to be going like they've been. And by that Friday, it will be President Pence.

Again, I'm thinking that this does not happen at all. But if it does, it will be measured in days and hours, not weeks and months.



I have thought for a while that a tipping point would be either losing a court battle over his tax returns, or members of his family being brought up on charges, especially Ivanka. I could then see him try to make a deal to resign with the family members getting immunity in exchange. If his tax returns were legit, he would have released them a long time ago because then he could "embarrass" the media and the Dems who kept calling for them. I think they are going to reveal a lot.

Marc Vaughan 01-11-2019 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3228490)
It will hit some tipping point, and then it will happen very quickly. On Monday, things will seem to be going like they've been. And by that Friday, it will be President Pence.


This very much appears to be the GOP gameplan imho - its fairly obvious from the televised Trump meeting the other week that Pence is simply staying 'out' of everything as a safety if Trump does go down ... he is trying hard not to comment or act on anything as that might connect him to the 'future' failed regime ..

(personally Pence scares me more than Trump does -he is a sincere and honest believer, which means he's potentially going to do some bat-shit stuff because he knows its 'right' ... he believes that someone being gay is a mental problem ffs ....)

Lathum 01-11-2019 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3228490)
Again, I'm thinking that this does not happen at all. But if it does, it will be measured in days and hours, not weeks and months.


The civil unrest will be historic.

bronconick 01-11-2019 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan (Post 3228496)
This very much appears to be the GOP gameplan imho - its fairly obvious from the televised Trump meeting the other week that Pence is simply staying 'out' of everything as a safety if Trump does go down ... he is trying hard not to comment or act on anything as that might connect him to the 'future' failed regime ..

(personally Pence scares me more than Trump does -he is a sincere and honest believer, which means he's potentially going to do some bat-shit stuff because he knows its 'right' ... he believes that someone being gay is a mental problem ffs ....)


Pence has the charisma of a wet paper bag. He was going to lose the Governorship of red Indiana before the VP came up. The only thing he'd be able to get through Congress while a lame duck are more judges which already happens because they've already been picked by others for Trump.

kingfc22 01-11-2019 04:07 PM

How many more days are we going to get the idle threat of him claiming to be absolutely, almost definitely, possibly, just might do it, well not quite yet going to call a National Emergency?

He clearly just wants to continue argue about the wall to play it up for his base. I mean what else is he going to rally around for the next 2 years?

kingfc22 01-11-2019 04:18 PM

Too good. This con was trying to move the $20M to a non-profit he created.

GoFundMe is refunding $20 million in donations made to 'Trump Wall' campaign

Thomkal 01-11-2019 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22 (Post 3228524)
Too good. This con was trying to move the $20M to a non-profit he created.

GoFundMe is refunding $20 million in donations made to 'Trump Wall' campaign



Glad someone investigated this guy before he took all their money. He's on to a new way of building the wall now:


Florida Man Says He's Ending GoFundMe Border Wall Campaign, Vows To Build It Himself | HuffPost


My favorite part-Kris Kobach and Erik Prince are his advisers on the new charity he's going to start.

PilotMan 01-11-2019 07:21 PM

I wonder why there isn't a dedicated page for crime by US citizens to point out how in danger we are to these 'so called' actual citizens that are committing crimes, literally, everywhere. It's scary out there.

Atocep 01-11-2019 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3228531)
I wonder why there isn't a dedicated page for crime by US citizens to point out how in danger we are to these 'so called' actual citizens that are committing crimes, literally, everywhere. It's scary out there.


I don't live too far away from the Canadian border, where the real crime comes from, and it's frightening here.

cartman 01-11-2019 08:15 PM

NYT is reporting that the FBI officially opened an inquiry into whether or not Trump was working for Russia. That inquiry was subsequently rolled in to the Mueller investigation.

kingfc22 01-11-2019 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3228527)
Glad someone investigated this guy before he took all their money. He's on to a new way of building the wall now:


Florida Man Says He's Ending GoFundMe Border Wall Campaign, Vows To Build It Himself | HuffPost


My favorite part-Kris Kobach and Erik Prince are his advisers on the new charity he's going to start.


So is David Clarke. You can’t make this stuff up.

CarterNMA 01-11-2019 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3228534)
NYT is reporting that the FBI officially opened an inquiry into whether or not Trump was working for Russia. That inquiry was subsequently rolled in to the Mueller investigation.


LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP!

Mota 01-11-2019 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3228532)
I don't live too far away from the Canadian border, where the real crime comes from, and it's frightening here.


Just like Game of Thrones, the real wall should be in the North.

JPhillips 01-11-2019 09:41 PM

The NYT has dropped what should be the biggest story in the history of the presidency. In 2017 the FBI opened an investigation into Trump to see if he was an agent of the Russians.

So far no GOP elected official has expressed concern.

Atocep 01-11-2019 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mota (Post 3228537)
Just like Game of Thrones, the real wall should be in the North.


Canada has whites rather than wights so we're ok with it.

kingfc22 01-11-2019 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3228542)
The NYT has dropped what should be the biggest story in the history of the presidency. In 2017 the FBI opened an investigation into Trump to see if he was an agent of the Russians.

So far no GOP elected official has expressed concern.


Nor will they. Like Trump said, he could shoot somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue and he’s get away with it.

PilotMan 01-11-2019 11:17 PM

I really hate speculating on 'what will happen' thought games when it comes to the Russia investigation because I think it can influence responses after it finally comes out and inhibit a legit objective review of the material. But it occurred to me, what if Muelller, took over the investigation and knew right away that there was a ton of shady shit going on? In that moment his plan was to be as absolutely methodical in his work and turn over every single rock and piece everything together. What if he knew out the end game was going to play out and had the chance to set the game up before everyone else could catch up. Even going back to the Cohen raid they so seem to have the jump throughout. Seems to me, it's as likely as anything else. I'm in no rush to get the answers as long as the answers actually give us something, and some kind of answers about what went on with the Russian influence campaign.

Ben E Lou 01-12-2019 03:50 AM

OK...help this dummy who hasn't had time to read/watch any analysis on this: Why is the FBI news such a "bombshell?" I mean, "People Paying Attention Wondered If Trump Might Be A Russian Asset," doesn't exactly raise my eyebrows...

Ben E Lou 01-12-2019 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by corbes (Post 3228551)
Not just wondered. FBI actually opened a counterintelligence investigation into whether the sitting president of the United States was working on behalf of Russia against American interests.

What if the Obstruction Was the Collusion? On the New York Times’s Latest Bombshell - Lawfare

OK, so maybe my brain has already been far enough down that road that it's not a shocker Not saying I'm numb, but my reaction is more "well of COURSE they did. Why is everyone acting all surprised?" Honestly, I think if you'd asked me two days ago if the FBI had started investigating Trump/Russia, I would have said "yeah...I think I read that at some point in the last couple of years..." I guess somewhere along the lines I lost track of all the noise and just thought/assumed it was the case. *shurg*

Flasch186 01-12-2019 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3228495)
I have thought for a while that a tipping point would be ...


Me too. I've been surprised that the powers that be continue to excuse, pretzel-wise themselves to be ok with whatever they never would've been ok with before. At this point, I'm a boiled frog and I don't believe that there's anything the GOP will say is enough. The ring's power is too strong.

miami_fan 01-12-2019 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3228552)
OK, so maybe my brain has already been far enough down that road that it's not a shocker Not saying I'm numb, but my reaction is more "well of COURSE they did. Why is everyone acting all surprised?" Honestly, I think if you'd asked me two days ago if the FBI had started investigating Trump/Russia, I would have said "yeah...I think I read that at some point in the last couple of years..." I guess somewhere along the lines I lost track of all the noise and just thought/assumed it was the case. *shurg*


This. It is the equivalent of holding in football for me at this point.

JPhillips 01-12-2019 09:44 AM

I'm not saying it's surprising, I'm saying it should be seen as incredibly consequential. This is an investigation of the President to see if he's a foreign agent. We shouldn't shrug and move on.

Thomkal 01-12-2019 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3228552)
OK, so maybe my brain has already been far enough down that road that it's not a shocker Not saying I'm numb, but my reaction is more "well of COURSE they did. Why is everyone acting all surprised?" Honestly, I think if you'd asked me two days ago if the FBI had started investigating Trump/Russia, I would have said "yeah...I think I read that at some point in the last couple of years..." I guess somewhere along the lines I lost track of all the noise and just thought/assumed it was the case. *shurg*



I'm not sure that its surprising that the FBI is investigating Trump, its just that this is the first time its been reported that the FBI has (or had if Mueller took it over) both a criminal and counterintelligence investigation on Trump. It's kind of verification/redemption for jourmalists/investigators that they were on the right track with a lot of their stories.

Chief Rum 01-12-2019 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3228559)
I'm not saying it's surprising, I'm saying it should be seen as incredibly consequential. This is an investigation of the President to see if he's a foreign agent. We shouldn't shrug and move on.


More consequential than all the other stupidly "historic" crap Trump has pulled or had happen during his administration?

Naw, I'm with Ben. Just another drop in the bucket. Like him, I just assumed it had already happened.

Bee 01-12-2019 01:49 PM

Under any other president it would have been historic, under Trump it was just another Friday night.

Atocep 01-12-2019 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bee (Post 3228565)
Under any other president it would have been historic, under Trump it was just another Friday night.


Pretty much. We have a possibly, maybe illegitimate president appointing supreme court justices, working without an attorney general or defense secretary, threatening to expand executive power, and significantly altering our foreign policy but as long as he keeps telling everyone the Libs are the true enemy 40% of the country is ok with it.

JPhillips 01-12-2019 04:27 PM

Trump has exploited a key weakness with human behavior. We're good at focusing on a single scandal, but when there's one hundred scandals we lose interest.

Flasch186 01-13-2019 08:11 AM

Boiling a frog at the same time.

QuikSand 01-13-2019 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3228570)
Trump has exploited a key weakness with human behavior. We're good at focusing on a single scandal, but when there's one hundred scandals we lose interest.


no doubt about it... i honestly don't think it was a plan/stratagem, but it's working just as well as if it had been

Atocep 01-13-2019 05:50 PM

If Bernstein's report on what's in the draft copy of the Mueller Report is correct shit is going to get crazy.

Quote:

Legendary journalist Carl Bernstein has said that he’s been told that special counsel Robert Mueller’s report will show how President Donald Trump helped Russia “destabilize the United States.”

Mueller Draft Report Says Trump 'Helped Putin Destabilize the United States', Watergate Journalist Says

Ben E Lou 01-13-2019 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3213041)
It's patently obvious where the goalposts eventually land, right? At some point the MAGA message will simply shift to "as long as the Russians, whom we were working with of course, didn't actually go into the voting machines and change votes, then there's nothing wrong with what we did together to alter the US election." And 40% of America, and a theoretically valid Electoral College majority, will effectively agree that we have always been at war with Eastasia.

Bump...

Atocep 01-14-2019 11:14 AM

Some signs that the shutdown is chipping away at Trump's base:

The most recent Rasmussen poll has him at 43% approval, which is shockingly low for that particular poll, while YouGov has him at 37% in a poll over the weekend.

This is probably why Graham has come out pushing for a stopgap bill, which Trump has already rejected.

Lathum 01-14-2019 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3228611)
If Bernstein's report on what's in the draft copy of the Mueller Report is correct shit is going to get crazy.



Mueller Draft Report Says Trump 'Helped Putin Destabilize the United States', Watergate Journalist Says


His base will continue to not care. A quick look through the comments illustrate that.

From the comments

Quote:

The Liberal Media will report LIES but i watch FOX news and I know the TRUTH is that the Demoncrats import messicans to vote for them so America will get more Taco Bells. President Putin....er.... I mean Trump will make us GREAT again.


Quote:

Seriously, how stupid can the liberal media get? Just because they are still butthurt because the election not going the way they wanted is a poor excuse to blatantly lie to the American people as they are. It's just sick and revolting

This is his base, their vote counts as much as yours, and they will defend him no matter what evidence you put in front of their noses. It is amazing.

spleen1015 01-14-2019 12:17 PM

I don't think that's just Trump's base. It's like that on both sides.

Lathum 01-14-2019 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 3228668)
I don't think that's just Trump's base. It's like that on both sides.


I think you are wrong.

Anyone who still supports him after the last 2 years is like those people above, and that is a lot of people.

Radii 01-14-2019 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3228666)
This is his base, their vote counts as much as yours, and they will defend him no matter what evidence you put in front of their noses. It is amazing.


Fox News has been telling people for years that they are the only news outlet that is trustworthy. I've mentioned it before but I've occasionally tuned in just to hear for myself, the number of people who call in to Rush Limbaugh and open there call with something like "I've finally taken your advice rush and stopped listening to any of that lamestream junk, you're the only one I know I can trust" are terrifying.

If every source of news but Fox is lying to you daily about all things, important or mundane, and the only place left that you can trust tells you there's nothing wrong except for the liberal conspiracy to harm them, then there's nothing wrong.

spleen1015 01-14-2019 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3228669)
I think you are wrong.

Anyone who still supports him after the last 2 years is like those people above, and that is a lot of people.


If it were Hilary doing the same shit, there would be just as many people blindly supporting her no matter what.

I'm like you man. I can't believe people still support the jackass.

I wanted him to get elected to shake things up and to see how things went. Now that I've seen it, I think it's one of the worst things to happen in American history.

Radii 01-14-2019 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 3228671)
If it were Hilary doing the same shit, there would be just as many people blindly supporting her no matter what.


I think there would be some to be sure, but not 30% or more like we see with Trump. I think we've seen some proof on the "both sides" bullshit in some of these cases, the democratic response to Al Franken's scandal happening at the same time that Roy Moore was up for election in Alabama being a great recent example.

Lathum 01-14-2019 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 3228671)
If it were Hilary doing the same shit, there would be just as many people blindly supporting her no matter what.

I'm like you man. I can't believe people still support the jackass.

I wanted him to get elected to shake things up and to see how things went. Now that I've seen it, I think it's one of the worst things to happen in American history.


At least you can admit you were wrong. I think one of the biggest problems is people aren’t willing to admit their mistake so they defend him and double down on the lunacy.

Kodos 01-14-2019 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3228672)
The democratic response to Al Franken's scandal happening at the same time that Roy Moore was up for election in Alabama being a great recent example.


Exactly. I thought Franken was great before the scandal, maybe even a decent presidential candidate, but once the news broke, he had to go.

SackAttack 01-14-2019 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 3228671)
I wanted him to get elected to shake things up and to see how things went. Now that I've seen it, I think it's one of the worst things to happen in American history.


And the hell of it is, there hasn't been a lot to come out of this Administration that's been a genuine positive surprise - by which I mean, "oh, hey, that went better than I expected/feared." Essentially all of the fuckery was entirely predictable (and predicted, in several cases).

It probably wasn't necessary to "see how things went" to know what the likely outcomes always were.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3228672)
I think there would be some to be sure, but not 30% or more like we see with Trump. I think we've seen some proof on the "both sides" bullshit in some of these cases, the democratic response to Al Franken's scandal happening at the same time that Roy Moore was up for election in Alabama being a great recent example.


Thing is, even at his absolute nadir, 25-30% of the population were enthusiastic supporters of President George W. Bush.

I guarantee there would be 30% of the electorate rah-rah'ing for Hillary no matter how badly she skunked it up. That's basically the floor of support for any major party President these days.

Radii 01-14-2019 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack (Post 3228686)
I guarantee there would be 30% of the electorate rah-rah'ing for Hillary no matter how badly she skunked it up. That's basically the floor of support for any major party President these days.



By "Hillary doing the same shit" I'm thinking things like blatantly acting in the interest of our enemies, openly taking the side of authoritarians who hate us against facts presented by our own justice department, and having basically everyone within her circle wrapped up in criminal investigations with multiple guilty pleas. I do not think in that circumstance 30% of the country would blindly be behind Hillary. I think most of us would be ready to give the ol' vice president a try.

JPhillips 01-14-2019 02:51 PM

But have things ever been different? At the height of Watergate Nixon still had 25-30% approval ratings. Carter's lowest approval ratings were between 25-30%. LBJ and Ford rarely ever dropped below 40%. Truman had some of the lowest approval ratings and he stayed above 20%.

Edward64 01-14-2019 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3228611)
If Bernstein's report on what's in the draft copy of the Mueller Report is correct shit is going to get crazy.

Mueller Draft Report Says Trump 'Helped Putin Destabilize the United States', Watergate Journalist Says


Assuming that Bernstein is reporting Mueller accurately and in context, it is significant. I would wait to see how much evidence Mueller has re: this. Is there reams and reams or is it an incident here and there that could be interpreted as helping Putin destabilize the US.

Edward64 01-14-2019 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3228672)
I think there would be some to be sure, but not 30% or more like we see with Trump.


I agree. There will be some hardcore Hillary supporters that would stick with her and come up with excuses/rationalizations but it wouldn't be as much as Trump, many would see the light and drop her IMO.

If Hillary did all that Trump did, said all that Trump said, was accused of what Trump has been accused off, there is no doubt both the Dem and GOP House and Senate would impeach her.

My explanation is because those hardcore Democrats can find other viable alternatives whereas Trump supporters really don't have an alternative.

With that said -
  • I'm not convinced that Trump himself "colluded" with Russia to steal the election. Sure there are stuff that can be interpreted that way but no smoking gun with him holding it
  • I'm more interesting in his financial dealings that may be illegal. Juicy as those details may be, doubt that will get him impeached

Bottom line -

Like it or not, we're stuck with Trump for the next 2 years at least (and I am glad the Dems own the House to bring more balance).

SirFozzie 01-14-2019 04:54 PM

National (US) Poll - January 14, 2019 - U.S. Voters Back Dem Plan To R | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quinnipiac
American voters support 63 - 30 percent a Democratic proposal to reopen parts of the government that do not involve border security while negotiating funding for the Wall, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Every party, gender, education, age and racial group supports this idea except Republicans, who are opposed 52 - 39 percent.

Voters oppose 63 - 32 percent shutting down the government to force funding for the Wall, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Again, Republicans are the only listed group supporting the shutdown, 67 - 24 percent.

The GOP is losing the battle as 56 percent of American voters say President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are responsible for the shutdown, while 36 percent say Democrats are responsible.

Voters remain solidly opposed to a wall on the Mexican border, 55 - 43 percent, and reject every argument for the Wall. The 55 - 43 percent opposition compares to 54 - 43 percent opposition in a December 18 survey, just before the partial government shutdown.

American voters are negative in every question about the wall, saying:

* 59 - 40 percent that it is not a good use of taxpayer dollars;
* 55 - 43 percent that the wall would not make the U.S. safer;
* 59 - 40 percent that the wall is not necessary to protect the border;
* 52 percent say the wall is against American values as 41 percent say the wall is consistent with American values.


Here's the thing The R's know they have a losing hand here. If it wasn't for Trump, they would have caved weeks ago. Right now they're damned if they do (increasingly taking blame for the shutdown, further poisoning the party, and things are not going to get better, they're only going to get worse as more people miss checks, food stamps threaten to run dry, farmers can't get loans for feed or the compensatory from Trump's trade wars, etcetera) and damned if they don't (If they override Trump, the base will rise up on theoretical revolt (and in some cases, possibly LITERAL revolt).

To steal a quote from WarGames:

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

Right now, McConnell's only move (and it's the one he's doing rather well) is to point to trump and say "Hey, I can't do anything. talk to him" and hope that the backlash lands on Trump and discredits his current party takeover.

Lathum 01-14-2019 06:59 PM

I am flabbergasted that 41% of people think a wall is consistent with American values. Did they all drop out of school in the second grade?

Thomkal 01-14-2019 07:40 PM

Looks like even the Republicans are sick of Steve King of Iowa-he's not been appointed to any committees-unanimously. Wonder if Nancy Pelosi will Censure him now to drive the final nail in the coffin.


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