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I'll just put this here:
I think that it is likely that Trump remains President until the 2020 election (which he may win or lose. Too far out for me to have a feeling about that one). But, IF Trump does leave before then, a'la Nixon, it will not be a gradual thing. It won't be his approval going from 40 to 39 to 38 to 37 . . . and a GOP Senator coming out against him. And the next week another. Then a month later another one. It will hit some tipping point, and then it will happen very quickly. On Monday, things will seem to be going like they've been. And by that Friday, it will be President Pence. Again, I'm thinking that this does not happen at all. But if it does, it will be measured in days and hours, not weeks and months. |
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God bless you. |
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I have thought for a while that a tipping point would be either losing a court battle over his tax returns, or members of his family being brought up on charges, especially Ivanka. I could then see him try to make a deal to resign with the family members getting immunity in exchange. If his tax returns were legit, he would have released them a long time ago because then he could "embarrass" the media and the Dems who kept calling for them. I think they are going to reveal a lot. |
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This very much appears to be the GOP gameplan imho - its fairly obvious from the televised Trump meeting the other week that Pence is simply staying 'out' of everything as a safety if Trump does go down ... he is trying hard not to comment or act on anything as that might connect him to the 'future' failed regime .. (personally Pence scares me more than Trump does -he is a sincere and honest believer, which means he's potentially going to do some bat-shit stuff because he knows its 'right' ... he believes that someone being gay is a mental problem ffs ....) |
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The civil unrest will be historic. |
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Pence has the charisma of a wet paper bag. He was going to lose the Governorship of red Indiana before the VP came up. The only thing he'd be able to get through Congress while a lame duck are more judges which already happens because they've already been picked by others for Trump. |
How many more days are we going to get the idle threat of him claiming to be absolutely, almost definitely, possibly, just might do it, well not quite yet going to call a National Emergency?
He clearly just wants to continue argue about the wall to play it up for his base. I mean what else is he going to rally around for the next 2 years? |
Too good. This con was trying to move the $20M to a non-profit he created.
GoFundMe is refunding $20 million in donations made to 'Trump Wall' campaign |
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Glad someone investigated this guy before he took all their money. He's on to a new way of building the wall now: Florida Man Says He's Ending GoFundMe Border Wall Campaign, Vows To Build It Himself | HuffPost My favorite part-Kris Kobach and Erik Prince are his advisers on the new charity he's going to start. |
I wonder why there isn't a dedicated page for crime by US citizens to point out how in danger we are to these 'so called' actual citizens that are committing crimes, literally, everywhere. It's scary out there.
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I don't live too far away from the Canadian border, where the real crime comes from, and it's frightening here. |
NYT is reporting that the FBI officially opened an inquiry into whether or not Trump was working for Russia. That inquiry was subsequently rolled in to the Mueller investigation.
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So is David Clarke. You can’t make this stuff up. |
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LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! |
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Just like Game of Thrones, the real wall should be in the North. |
The NYT has dropped what should be the biggest story in the history of the presidency. In 2017 the FBI opened an investigation into Trump to see if he was an agent of the Russians.
So far no GOP elected official has expressed concern. |
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Canada has whites rather than wights so we're ok with it. |
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Nor will they. Like Trump said, he could shoot somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue and he’s get away with it. |
I really hate speculating on 'what will happen' thought games when it comes to the Russia investigation because I think it can influence responses after it finally comes out and inhibit a legit objective review of the material. But it occurred to me, what if Muelller, took over the investigation and knew right away that there was a ton of shady shit going on? In that moment his plan was to be as absolutely methodical in his work and turn over every single rock and piece everything together. What if he knew out the end game was going to play out and had the chance to set the game up before everyone else could catch up. Even going back to the Cohen raid they so seem to have the jump throughout. Seems to me, it's as likely as anything else. I'm in no rush to get the answers as long as the answers actually give us something, and some kind of answers about what went on with the Russian influence campaign.
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OK...help this dummy who hasn't had time to read/watch any analysis on this: Why is the FBI news such a "bombshell?" I mean, "People Paying Attention Wondered If Trump Might Be A Russian Asset," doesn't exactly raise my eyebrows...
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Me too. I've been surprised that the powers that be continue to excuse, pretzel-wise themselves to be ok with whatever they never would've been ok with before. At this point, I'm a boiled frog and I don't believe that there's anything the GOP will say is enough. The ring's power is too strong. |
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This. It is the equivalent of holding in football for me at this point. |
I'm not saying it's surprising, I'm saying it should be seen as incredibly consequential. This is an investigation of the President to see if he's a foreign agent. We shouldn't shrug and move on.
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I'm not sure that its surprising that the FBI is investigating Trump, its just that this is the first time its been reported that the FBI has (or had if Mueller took it over) both a criminal and counterintelligence investigation on Trump. It's kind of verification/redemption for jourmalists/investigators that they were on the right track with a lot of their stories. |
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More consequential than all the other stupidly "historic" crap Trump has pulled or had happen during his administration? Naw, I'm with Ben. Just another drop in the bucket. Like him, I just assumed it had already happened. |
Under any other president it would have been historic, under Trump it was just another Friday night.
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Pretty much. We have a possibly, maybe illegitimate president appointing supreme court justices, working without an attorney general or defense secretary, threatening to expand executive power, and significantly altering our foreign policy but as long as he keeps telling everyone the Libs are the true enemy 40% of the country is ok with it. |
Trump has exploited a key weakness with human behavior. We're good at focusing on a single scandal, but when there's one hundred scandals we lose interest.
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Boiling a frog at the same time.
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no doubt about it... i honestly don't think it was a plan/stratagem, but it's working just as well as if it had been |
If Bernstein's report on what's in the draft copy of the Mueller Report is correct shit is going to get crazy.
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Mueller Draft Report Says Trump 'Helped Putin Destabilize the United States', Watergate Journalist Says |
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Some signs that the shutdown is chipping away at Trump's base:
The most recent Rasmussen poll has him at 43% approval, which is shockingly low for that particular poll, while YouGov has him at 37% in a poll over the weekend. This is probably why Graham has come out pushing for a stopgap bill, which Trump has already rejected. |
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His base will continue to not care. A quick look through the comments illustrate that. From the comments Quote:
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This is his base, their vote counts as much as yours, and they will defend him no matter what evidence you put in front of their noses. It is amazing. |
I don't think that's just Trump's base. It's like that on both sides.
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I think you are wrong. Anyone who still supports him after the last 2 years is like those people above, and that is a lot of people. |
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Fox News has been telling people for years that they are the only news outlet that is trustworthy. I've mentioned it before but I've occasionally tuned in just to hear for myself, the number of people who call in to Rush Limbaugh and open there call with something like "I've finally taken your advice rush and stopped listening to any of that lamestream junk, you're the only one I know I can trust" are terrifying. If every source of news but Fox is lying to you daily about all things, important or mundane, and the only place left that you can trust tells you there's nothing wrong except for the liberal conspiracy to harm them, then there's nothing wrong. |
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If it were Hilary doing the same shit, there would be just as many people blindly supporting her no matter what. I'm like you man. I can't believe people still support the jackass. I wanted him to get elected to shake things up and to see how things went. Now that I've seen it, I think it's one of the worst things to happen in American history. |
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I think there would be some to be sure, but not 30% or more like we see with Trump. I think we've seen some proof on the "both sides" bullshit in some of these cases, the democratic response to Al Franken's scandal happening at the same time that Roy Moore was up for election in Alabama being a great recent example. |
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At least you can admit you were wrong. I think one of the biggest problems is people aren’t willing to admit their mistake so they defend him and double down on the lunacy. |
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Exactly. I thought Franken was great before the scandal, maybe even a decent presidential candidate, but once the news broke, he had to go. |
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And the hell of it is, there hasn't been a lot to come out of this Administration that's been a genuine positive surprise - by which I mean, "oh, hey, that went better than I expected/feared." Essentially all of the fuckery was entirely predictable (and predicted, in several cases). It probably wasn't necessary to "see how things went" to know what the likely outcomes always were. Quote:
Thing is, even at his absolute nadir, 25-30% of the population were enthusiastic supporters of President George W. Bush. I guarantee there would be 30% of the electorate rah-rah'ing for Hillary no matter how badly she skunked it up. That's basically the floor of support for any major party President these days. |
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By "Hillary doing the same shit" I'm thinking things like blatantly acting in the interest of our enemies, openly taking the side of authoritarians who hate us against facts presented by our own justice department, and having basically everyone within her circle wrapped up in criminal investigations with multiple guilty pleas. I do not think in that circumstance 30% of the country would blindly be behind Hillary. I think most of us would be ready to give the ol' vice president a try. |
But have things ever been different? At the height of Watergate Nixon still had 25-30% approval ratings. Carter's lowest approval ratings were between 25-30%. LBJ and Ford rarely ever dropped below 40%. Truman had some of the lowest approval ratings and he stayed above 20%.
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Assuming that Bernstein is reporting Mueller accurately and in context, it is significant. I would wait to see how much evidence Mueller has re: this. Is there reams and reams or is it an incident here and there that could be interpreted as helping Putin destabilize the US. |
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I agree. There will be some hardcore Hillary supporters that would stick with her and come up with excuses/rationalizations but it wouldn't be as much as Trump, many would see the light and drop her IMO. If Hillary did all that Trump did, said all that Trump said, was accused of what Trump has been accused off, there is no doubt both the Dem and GOP House and Senate would impeach her. My explanation is because those hardcore Democrats can find other viable alternatives whereas Trump supporters really don't have an alternative. With that said -
Bottom line - Like it or not, we're stuck with Trump for the next 2 years at least (and I am glad the Dems own the House to bring more balance). |
National (US) Poll - January 14, 2019 - U.S. Voters Back Dem Plan To R | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
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Here's the thing The R's know they have a losing hand here. If it wasn't for Trump, they would have caved weeks ago. Right now they're damned if they do (increasingly taking blame for the shutdown, further poisoning the party, and things are not going to get better, they're only going to get worse as more people miss checks, food stamps threaten to run dry, farmers can't get loans for feed or the compensatory from Trump's trade wars, etcetera) and damned if they don't (If they override Trump, the base will rise up on theoretical revolt (and in some cases, possibly LITERAL revolt). To steal a quote from WarGames: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play." Right now, McConnell's only move (and it's the one he's doing rather well) is to point to trump and say "Hey, I can't do anything. talk to him" and hope that the backlash lands on Trump and discredits his current party takeover. |
I am flabbergasted that 41% of people think a wall is consistent with American values. Did they all drop out of school in the second grade?
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Looks like even the Republicans are sick of Steve King of Iowa-he's not been appointed to any committees-unanimously. Wonder if Nancy Pelosi will Censure him now to drive the final nail in the coffin.
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