Landfall is expected to be early tomorrow morning. The current forward speed is estimated at 13 mph.

Thanks.

FWIW, the map above *is* self-updating.

What is bugging about the news coverage (esp. CNN) is that they keep talking about New Orleans and its 485,000 people are ordered to evacuate. The New Orleans Metro Area has a population of over 1,300,000 people. Don't they count?

.
Saw it as well and with the number of fools watching Fox news these days.... :(

Even worse, more and more people seem to be gathering at the bars to party. It's aggrevating to see. Direct quote. Shep Smith to people just walking their dogs: Why are you guys still here? Person: None of your fucking business.

Another guy what are you going to do tonight? I'm going out for dinner and I'm going to watch a movie.

5pm Eastern Advisory:

902 MB
165 MPH Winds
NW at 13 MPH
150 Miles South of the Mississippi

Still on track for New Orleans.

Wind speeds dropped, but the same pressure?

Scary thought: New Orleans evacuation plan is a 72 hour plan.

The mayor went to be Friday night thinking it was a "Florida storm".
Woke up Saturday to a whole new issue....

Mandatory order was issued this morning.

I thought the update with the 175 winds was 906 mb?

5pm EST, 165 MPH and 902 MB.

Needless to say there will be alot of uneccessary deaths due to stupidity.

No, what Scottvib posted is what they just said on CNN. 902mb and 165 mph.

So they dropped 10 MPH? Does this mean it will continue to weaken?

The pressure is still the same though, and the waters are mighty warm.

Dola: Arent there alot of Offshore Oil Rigs and Refineries in and around the projected path of destruction?

Oh, I meant the 2pm update that it replaced- ie, the winds dropped but pressure dropped as well.

This isn't unusual, it typically takes a little while for the wind speed to respond to a stronger circulation center. (Additionally the wind speed is a function of the pressure gradient, so if the gradient is not as tight, even if the pressure is lower the winds won't pick up)

Looking at the radar there was a brief warming of the cloud tops (typically would signify a slight weakening of the system) earlier this afternoon, but that trend seems to have reversed itself.

It would actually be very unusual for a hurricane to maintain such strength for a long time, there will be some fluxuations in the wind speed prior to landfall and it is very possible (the earlier forecasts called for it) to have some minor weakening prior to landfall. But it still is expected for the landfall to occur with Katrina still a Category 5 or best case, a very strong Cat. 4 storm. Either way the impact would/will be devastating.

That's the good thing about civil liberties. The govt can adequately warn, prepare and supply aid but they cannot force, unless a law is broken. Personal responsibilities - until the lawyers get involved.

Now who is going to force the weather channel numbnuts, esp. that bitch standing in Gulf Shores, to leave or are they going to keep showing these "reporters" telling us how windy it is?

Please remember that the only thing between New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico is low-lying, eroding swampland. Expecting that land to break up Katrina is like asking a toddler to tackle Jamal Lewis.

For Buccaneer: I'm adjusting to the Northeast just fine so far, but I haven't been here long yet. I was here in February for my wife's job interview, and I got to experience sustained sub-freezing temperatures. It wasn't so bad. Now, I don't really know how the hell to shovel snow, but I'll learn it pretty quickly!

Don't be surprised to see a spike to $4/gallon.

BTW the forecast track shifted so that the eye would be forecasted to go right over New Orleans and would have landfall occur a bit earlier (4-5 am).

In New Orleans the media was exempted from the evacuation order so that they could continue to disseminate information to the public.

With respect to the Weather Channel, they are pulling their reporters back a bit. Jim Cantore's group have been moved to Gulf Shore Civic Center in Mississippi, where they will end up putting all their equipment. The staff will all be on the second floor inclosed in concrete.

FOX NEWS: It's too late to leave N.O. Bridges closed.

BTW they are closing the bridges to New Orleans now. More or less if you haven't gotten out yet, it's too late.

Good luck to everyone left/who is staying in New Orleans.

Some, how deep in my heart, I believe that what generally happens in this kind of mass hysteria will prove to be true: it will end up being much less than expected. I know that is very wishfull thinking, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next few hours the whole storm starts falling apart, or that it stops and suddenly turns even further west, or something else happens that weakens the damage significantly.

Should I combine this thread with the "Katrina hits Category 5" thread?

Why close the bridges now?

I hope you are right, but right now every indication is that this is not the case.

Don't know but that's what was reported.

Edit - My guess, and purely my guess, is that they closed them with the first rain band coming in (which just hit New Orleans).

Apparently te winds are getting too gusty. Are there estimates of how many ae trapped in N.O., AND is The Superdome in a higher elevation as compared to the French Quarters?

Didn't that happen last year (or earlier this year) with one of the hurricanes?

I know, I'm just hoping/praying past experience will bear out.

Charlie.

Two comments from me:

1. We New Orleanians generally consider our city to have only half a million people. We just don't count the additional areas that are included in the metro area (Metairie, Kenner, Harahan, St. Bernard Parish). I'm new to Greensburg, but there don't really seem to be any major cultural differences between people in Greensburg and people in Jeannette (5 miles away) and the people in Irwin (8 miles away). New Orleans is completely different. Adjacent cities and areas have completely different personalities and practically different cultures. To me, New Orleans has x number of people, Kenner has y number of people, Harahan has z number of people, etc. I don't really know if the media understand that, but when they say that New Orleans only has 485,000 people, it makes sense to me.

2. Also, regarding the "contra-flow" system, the cameras I've seen have shown the interstate between Causeway Blvd. and Clearview Blvd. This is a 4- or 5-mile stretch of interstate with no entrances or exits in between. You really can't get people onto the other lanes right there. You have to do it at the points that actually lead out of the city, and that's what contra-flow is designed to do. The point is pretty much moot now, though, because they have to get the police officers who are monitoring the interstate out of the area. At any minute now, New Orleans will be completely shut down.

What part of Louisiana is Dutch in?

Works for me.

I don't know for sure, but I think he's in northwestern Louisiana. I hope I'm right, because that's expected to be a safe spot.

If I remember correctly I think he is in Shreveport...

Also- we are starting to get some bad weather here in Lafayette already.

My GOD! That's alot of people in line to get in the Superdome.

Want to know how serious this is? I haven't heard one reference to "Katrina and the Waves".

Good luck to everybody involved - I'm pulling for you.

Good bless all you FOFC board members, your families and all the people in the path of this beast. Having been an Air Force meteorologist for 6 years and done my undergrad in the field I can say I haven't seen an eye that defined and or a wall cloud that huge.

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/vid...props=livenoad


a live news feed from WWLTV out of new orleans, a good source of local news.

BTW for those interested Tropical Depression 13 formed today in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 14 may not be far behind.

Wow this is crazy. The other night my area got a direct hit from Katrina although it was not as strong as what is coming toward N.O. and M.S. direction.

:(

Thanks for the link.

Curfew coming at 6pm in New Orleans, also is the last pickup for the Rescue Centers.

Is this the mayor speaking on the WWL link now?