Dartmouth's class...let's not talk about Dartmouth's class. I've still got two of three scholarship offers outstanding and it's March in-game. That should tell you all you need to know.

I'll probably post my recruiting journal here in long format at the end of the season.

I put slightly less stock in the 'game ranking' for recruiting classes with each passing year. At this point I think it's useful as a rough guideline but not a whole lot more.

Anyway, I'll jump in here and summarize my recruiting for the year, which is done. Seems like a long time ago now, but I messed up the export for the critical second recruiting sim, and paid a price for it esp. with Harvard.

Harvard

** SG Domenic McDonald -- Terrified Vince was going to steal him again. He was nice enough not to but that's ok, UConn did it for him. Second year in a row Harvard loses out on a talented local that loved us from day one. Ahh the joys of being at the bottom of a crappy conference with a 'teacher' style coach(i.e., more Xs and Os than recruiting in the ratings).

** C Randall Reynolds(#298) -- Had a battle with Brown which we needed to win and did. Grades out terrible but our scout sucks and he's an All-Stater from UConn. G Douglas Larson was the same last year and came in Red/Yellow. I'd take that and smile. Fills a need for size.

That was the only one of the initial batch we hung on to. After that it was a scouting expedition, and after dragging the bottom of the local tributaries we came up with ...

* SG Teddy Krieger(#667) -- Scouts as a warm body but All-State in Virginia with impressive stats for someone rated so low. Hoping for a diamond in the rough but we had to have a shooting guard in this class with only one coming back.

* C Damon Jones(#526) -- Only one of the players that my scout thinks is worth a darn, which of course means he'll be a disaster. In all seriousness, scouts as a potential elite rebounder with far better handles than a one-star center has any right to have. Serviceable on defense and no range on offense, but strong and beggars can't be choosers.

Both big men are 6-8 and strong, quality size for our program. One scholarship is rolling over to the next year to give us two to shoot for. Harvard loses little the next couple of years yet, so the team is going to get better. None of these players will be stars but there's a decent chance all three of them are quality subs by the end of their careers. With the way things have gone, the only way this program is going to get a 'game-changer' is finding a one or two-star player that everyone else has ignored. In the first two years, 13 3-star players entered the Ivy. With this year included, Harvard has now brought in 2 2-stars and 10 1-stars, not a single 3 or higher. We're still going to after the 3-stars of opportunity; from a role-play standpoint if nothing else, I can't justify saying 'yep, that kid loves us, lives 50 miles away, great student, perfect attitude, but we're not going to try because I know he'll end up going somewhere else anyway.' Having said that, Coach Sorensen is very well aware that he just can't compete with even the other coaches in the Ivy for these players when Harvard is #1 and they get max effort from the first sim onwards. The Crimson program will be built with depth, balance, and getting the most out of cast-offs or never-wanted, or it won't be built at all.


Tulane

Hal Vanderhoff is my lone 'recruiting hero' coach. Tries to grab one JC a year, doesn't really have a system, just tries to plug and play with whomever he gets. Worked first year, not so much the second year, worked again this year and the results on the court have started to come around as well so the next few years should be fun.

This year's haul:

*** F Roland Phillips(#141) -- Good spot-up shooter and defender, a complementary piece rather than a star. Rated higher than we graded him so we'll see, but was still by far the best swingman option. Jumped on him a bit late and was surprised not to have any competition that I recall.

*** F Kirby Saylor(#155, JC) -- No range on offense and a little slow afoot but can do just about everything else. Handle the ball, defend in the paint, rebound, score inside, block the occasional shot, should be an impact post player. And oh my, how this team needs post players. Perimeter talent they have. So this is just what the doctor ordered it seems.

*** G Leonel Coffee(#216) -- Might be the best player in this class. Mr. Versatility. Needs to work on his body and midrange jumper, but looks like a guy who will be adequate or better at literally everything a guard needs to do on the court, and should be ready to contribute as a freshman. Tulane has a lot of 'specialist' players, having players like Saylor and Coffee that are more versatile should really help shore up weaknesses. I hope.

* C Trevor Sellers(#687) -- A lot lower in the rankings, Sellers is a project who couldn't score if his life depended on it right now. Appears to have elite potential in defensive rebounding and defensive positioning, and with plenty of perimeter scorers that's just what the doctor ordered. Very raw, esp. athletically, so he's a prime redshirt candidate.

Tulane gets a step closer to SEC competitiveness here. Not sure if we're quite there yet with losing the one decent passer on the team to graduation this offseason, but I think it's coming -- just a matter of when.


Michigan

Twas an easy year with only one recruit:

*** G Chris Pleasant (#100) -- First Top 100 recruit(barely), and it probably doesn't really count as he's the only 3-star on that list. Physically ready and lightning-quick, we grade him as a potential star and prepared to contribute right away; I noticed reports from others that are not quite as high on him so we will see what happens. We liked Scurry like everyone else but no way were we going to pry him away from the Spartans. There was a player from the Plains that I thought about who might have been better, but Pleasant is home-grown and was a virtual gimme. Bird in the hand, so to speak. A versatile player with potential turnover issues the only drawback, but it shouldn't be a severe weakness. Pleasant's the kind of player whose greatest strength is the lack of such a weakness, passing and defense look to the be the top aspects of his game but mostly he can do a little of everything.

Overall: Less than thrilled with Harvard but it shouldn't be a disaster which I guess I should be thankful for. Next year I need to try and find good talent with only two spots to fill. Tulane and Michigan both did well I think. I don't shoot for the moon like some of the other schools, and I think Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, etc. are consistently outrecruiting me in the Big Ten, so we'll see how that plays out in the long term.

1955 Washington Huskies Review:
Heading into the season we figured on a small step back. Instead, the Huskies won their first PCC title by going 15-1 and finished the regular season 30-2 to earn a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament where they advanced beyond the first round for the first time in three seasons. That was as far as this surprising season would go however – injuries and a scrappy Vanderbilt team ended Washington’s hopes of getting back to the Final Four. Still, this season has to go down as a success. Sweeps of St. John’s, Cal, Oregon, wins over Seattle U & Idaho State and winning the Pre-Season NIT were among the highlights as the Huskies finish 31-3 and ranked 5th in the country.

Team Leaders:
Points: SG Daniel Fenton (Jr) - 13.5, SG/SF Italo Malocco (So) – 11.4, PG Ellis Murphy (Sr) - 9.9
Rebounds: PF Joshua Lopez (Sr) – 11.0, C Francis Calhoun (RS-So) - 7.3, SF Gisbert Bittes (RS-Jr) - 4.6
Assists: PG Ellis Murphy (Sr) – 6.7, SG Daniel Fenton (Jr) – 4.4, SG/SF Italo Malocco (So) - 1.7
Blocks: C Francis Calhoun (RS-So) – 0.7
Steals: SG/SF Italo Malocco (So) - 1.8

This was a relatively balanced team. Fenton led the way in scoring with help from 6th man Malocco, and was also the #2 assist man on the team. Murphy was among the national leaders in assists, finishing 6th in the country. Lopez likewise ranked 6th in the country in rebounding. Washington was among the leaders in several team categories, ranking 9th in pace of play, 7th in offensive efficiency, 6th in defensive efficiency, 12th in effective FG%, 7th in rebounding %, 5th in lowest TO % and 18th in steal %.

Graduating players:
PF Joshua Lopez: 8.4 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 0.7 blks
Despite being a somewhat undersized post, Lopez was very effective. An elite rebounder and post defender, he had sufficient strength and good athleticism to hold up as a PF, and had the perimeter defense skills to not get burned by stretch-4’s. He possessed sufficient post skills to take advantage of his offensive rebound opportunities and get some easy points, though he wasn’t otherwise a significant scoring option. One of his most under-rated traits was his ability to avoid fouls. A two-year starter, he was a 2nd-team All PCC pick in 1954 and he’ll be up for similar honors this season.

PG Ellis Murphy: 9.9 ppg, 6.7 apg, 1.0 steals
Murphy developed into an excellent PG for us and was a key part of our offensive efficiency and defensive effectiveness. While his ball-handling was average, he was an elite passer and he elevated the Husky offense with his court vision. He was a good perimeter defender, though not much of a ball-hawk. He possessed a good jumper, particularly from deep and ended up one of our better offensive options. He had average quickness for the position, but was a plus jumper and had the stamina for Washington’s up-tempo attack. He’s a strong candidate for all-conference honors.

PG Daniel Ruth: 2.9 ppg, 0.4 apg, 0.3 steals
Ruth didn’t have the passing or ball-handling skills to contend for a starting PG job and wasn’t quite good enough as a defender or shooter to start at the SG, but he provided nice depth in the backcourt at both spots. Washington was well-stocked at guard which limited his minutes this past season, but he could have started at many programs across the country.

PF Ernest Chong: 0.8 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 0.5 apg
Chong was the kind of scrappy walk-on every program could use. He possessed decent defensive skills, was a better than average rebounder and had some post moves. He also was a terrific high-post passer. What he lacked was size – at just 6’5”, he could get overwhelmed by the bigger posts around the conference.

Recruiting Class:

This is an exciting class for Washington – not just because of the talent of the incoming players, but the fact that the Huskies were able to pull as many highly-rated kids as they did. It’s an encouraging sign that we’ll be able to bring in the kind of talent that will allow us to stay near the top of the PCC and continue to contend for NCAA Tournament berths.

Willman is an interesting recruit. He’s an undersized post at 6’7”, 208 lbs, but he brings a lot of skill to the table. He’s already got sufficient strength to hold up down low and should improve with development; he also appears to have good quickness, and his defensive potential suggests he could be average to above-average both defending the post and the perimeter, so he’s got the ability to play both forward spots. He projects as an elite rebounder, an above-average passer and appears to have advanced post moves on the offensive end. Washington was able to fend off Cal for his signature.

Johnson is the highest-rated recruit we’ve signed yet. He’s another versatile forward prospect at 6’8”, 212 lbs. His athleticism is less developed than Willman, but he’s got the combination of quickness, strength and jumping ability that should allow him to play both the 3 and the 4. He appears to have adequate defensive skills across the board including plus ball-hawking ability. He’s an average to above-average ball-handler and passer. On the offensive end he’s got some ability to create his own shot and a decent jumper (and very good from deep). Washington beat out Cincinnati to land him.

Shelley was the highest-rated and most impressive of a trio of in-state recruits this season and we targeted him right off the bat. A terrific scorer and shooter (24.9 ppg, 60.7% FG), he shows excellent potential as a penetrator and jump shooter and has elite athleticism. He also shows very good potential as a perimeter defender and should develop into a plus passer. While the Huskies have loaded up on a lot of talented wings, it’s quite possible that he could redshirt and then end up as a 4-year starter at SG after Fenton graduates.

Washington has sufficient quality depth that we can likely afford to redshirt all three players, but there’s a chance Willman or Johnson is good enough right off the bat to work their way into significant minutes in the front court.

I would guess this class will rank in the top-5.

1956 Preview:
Washington loses two significant pieces with the graduation of Lopez and Murphy. Lopez brought outstanding rebounding ability while Murphy was a fantastic passer, and both were terrific defensive players. Both will be difficult to replace.

C Francis Calhoun returns for his RS-Jr season and his 2nd year as a starter. He brings a lot of talent to the table and will be a key player. He’s got good size at 6’9”, 262 lbs, good strength and above-average hops for a post. He’s already a good defender down low with elite potential and can also hold his own on the perimeter. He’s a terrific offensive rebounder and improving on the defensive glass – with Lopez gone he’ll be counted on to step up this aspect of his game. On the offensive end he can stretch a defense with a good jumper. Burt Lingle saw his first action this season coming off his redshirt year and acquitted himself nicely. At 6’11”, 248 lbs he’s the biggest player on the roster and among our strongest. While his post defense and rebounding is just average, his height appears to give him a bit of an edge. His offensive game is still developing, but he’s got the potential to be a decent option. Joining the mix off his redshirt year is Gregoire Depretz. He’s got more potential as a rebounder and could be a bit better defensively, particularly as a shot-blocker. He’s got similar offensive potential but is a bit more advanced and he’s got better passing skills. He’s got decent size at 6’9”, 224 lbs, good strength and nice athleticism. He’s probably got the edge at this point to start alongside Calhoun.

Out on the wing, RS-Sr Gisbert Wittes returns for his 3rd season as a starter. He brings a solid all-around mix of skills to the SF job; he’s got enough quickness to not be embarrassed by faster wings and plenty of strength to bang down in the post with the bigger 3’s. He’s a very good defender both in the post and on the perimeter, has some ball-hawking skills and is an adequate rebounder. On the offensive end he’s improving and does a decent job of creating his own shot and an OK jumper, and he’s also pretty good with the ball in his hands. RS-So Jose Park saw his first action this past season and showed off his offensive skills, finishing 3rd on the team in points per minute. He’s already the most well-rounded offensive threat on the team with an ability to get to the hoop and a pretty good jump shot. He’s reasonably quick and strong for a wing and can jump out of the gym. Where he needs to improve is on the defensive end, and he’s basically a non-factor on the boards. Damien Elliott (RS-Jr) is an intriguing walk-on that has the size and strength to play both post positions, but has the perimeter defensive skills to also see some time at the 3. He’ll get some opportunities at the 4 & 5 but needs to improve his post defense. He’s got the jump shot to stretch opposing bigs and is an adequate rebounder.

This will be Sr Daniel Fenton’s team. He’ll enter his 4th season as a starter and remains the most talented player on the roster with a certain NBA future. He’s a very well-rounded player with very few weaknesses. A very athletic player with surprising strength for a guard, he’s an equally adept defender up high or down low and can generate some steals. He’s got the ball-handling and passing skills to be a very good PG (and that will likely be his pro position), but he’s also our best shooter (by far) and an improving ability to get to the basket. Fenton is a terrific all-around player with a skill set that allows him to play 1-3. He’ll likely start at the 2, but he provides us a lot of flexibility and should be our leading offensive player. A good bet to start alongside him will be Marquis Gray, a very talented PG coming off his redshirt season. He’s ultra-quick and has elite passing potential. His defense is improving but needs to continue to get better. He’s got a developing jumper that should become a weapon in another season or two. Another option will be to slide Fenton over to PG and move super-sub Italo Malocco (Jr) into the starting lineup at SG. Malocco was our 2nd leading scorer and best ball-hawk. He’s a very good defender with plus athleticism and has seen some time at the 3, though his post defense isn’t very good. He’s a decent passer, and while his offensive skills aren’t eye-popping, his quickness, jumping ability and strength make him a real threat as a scorer. Another strong scoring option could be Manuel Parenteau, the final member of the 1955 class coming off his redshirt. He’s got a very good jumper already and combines terrific quickness with elite hops which should help him find open looks. He projects as an adequate rebounder and passer. He’s got some work to do on the defensive end, but if he develops as expected he should end up at least an average perimeter defender. The crowded backcourt also boasts another PG candidate in RS-So Wayne Toro. He’s a good ball-handler and a fair passer with exceptional quickness. He’s got a very good jumper as well (particularly from long-range). Like Parenteau and Parks, he needs to continue developing his defense; as of right now he’s below-par which will limit his minutes.

The Huskies are likely to take a bit of a step back. The 1955 team was particularly good defensively and on the boards – both of these areas will take a hit with the graduation of Lopez and Murphy, and team passing will take a small step back as well. That might be counteracted by improving shooting and post skills, so the offense might not decline. The Huskies should generate more steals and blocked shots and should be more athletic. They boast quite a bit of backcourt depth, but injuries in the front court could be trouble. I would expect that Washington should again be a strong contender in the PCC, though the conference is improving rapidly and I expect a tough race for the NCAA auto-bid. This is a team that should win 20+ and earn another NCAA bid even if they miss out on being PCC champs.

This year was rough as I had speaking engagements on other college campus this past month, so I wasn't as able to keep up with this. Memorizing speeches takes a while for me to do as I hate using note cards.

So lets try to play catch up as the season as ended.

USC finished the season with their best record to date at 17-13 and 8-8 in the brutal PCC. We made the NIT for our first post season berth ever, but lost in the first round game to a scrappy Sienna team.

Washington basically ran the tables this past year and had a hell of a season taking home the PCC crown and advancing into the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney this year.

CAL had another Cal like season and also made the tourney however just wasn't the usual Cal squad.

Oregon got hosed, and I mean just mind blowingingly screwed for the NCAA tourney this year. I remember looking at the numbers and wondering how they got jobbed so bad. They should have been the third team into the NCAA this past year.

Other than those teams and Idaho the rest of us did ok for various different reasons.

This conf overall brought in some more talent recruiting wise and this is the year I believe that we start to see the fruits of all of our hard working staffs comes to bear with our own recruits being juniors on all our squads.

Recruiting looks like this ranked by FBB.



Washington take a huge jump forward in what they brought in. All 3 guys are going to be studs and its going to be hard for the rest of us to keep up with that. Just speaking for my own USC squad, I have no idea how we are going to be able to come close to putting the same type of talent on the floor unless we are able to recruit better, and without us winning soon, we aren't going to be able to do it.

Cal- I'm not impressed with Cal's class at all. They don't have the 2nd best class in the PCC no matter what the game says. If Cal didn't get the gift of a walk on Charles Puglsey 2 years ago, they would be in some major trouble post wise this year and next. Should be real interesting to see if they start to decline as the rest of the conf might be catching up talent wise with them.

Oregon State- This is the team that I believe will make a major move this year, and they brought in a nice class. I think hands down the 2nd best in the conf. Nathanial smith should be a nice PG for them even though I personally hate that he is under 6'0. I don't think it will be an issue for him though if all he does is be the passing PG he could easily be.

USC- We had an ok class. but I have already talked about my guys earlier on in this thread. 2 post players in this class should help stabilize my roster next year. Both will redshirt, and the prize for my class was Sanford Crabb who will do a little bit of everything, not not as well as I would have hoped.

UCLA-Not a huge fan of their class either, but Jardine is an interesting guy to keep a watch on. He will be able to shoot it with anybody in the conf. Grayson will be a solid option at PG for them.

Stanford- I love Elian Alvarez and he is the prize of their class. He will eventually be able to do it all for them and is a guy this conf will be hearing about for the next 4 years. Mathewson will be another shooter, and will be able to handle the ball for them. He projects to be another good guard in the conf and one that should help standford win some games.

Oregon- Bradly Lippert. Hell of a Juco find. Other than him, blahhh

Idaho- John Wagoner was a huge get for them. While he wont be able to do it all in the PCC on this squad, he would have easily been a starter for anyone else in the conf in a year or 2. Huge huge get here.

Washington State- I have no idea why they were last. Odell Groth here honestly might be the 2nd or 3rd best projected post player in the entire PCC class. That alone should have them last in the PCC recruiting standings. I keep talking about State and how they are a team up and coming. They brought in another nice solid class for them. They just need to prove it on the court

Player Records

All Time PCC Stats holders

All time Universe Record Stat holders

I cant complain much about the awards this year and a huge congrats on Kirk being the coach of the year. Am not going to be disappointed by all these guys graduating, notably the conf player of the year Layne.

USC's biggest thing that occurred this offseason was our star assistant coach did not decide to retire, and we will get his development for at least another year. Very happy about that. Our guys will benefit from getting his development during TC this year.

You only have to wait three more seasons for Dyer and Plant to graduate!

I do think this is the year where the ACC takes over as the best conf. They have more top heavy than the PCC, but I think they have better players. I don't think the BIG is there yet, although if Vince keeps doing what the hell he is doing over there that might change some things real quick.

I would rate it

1. ACC
2. PCC
3. BIG
4. Big 7

Another players I like in the BIG is Michigan's James Beane. Love the name, and love the underdog status as a kid that was ranked 324. If he had any jumpshot he might be putting up 25 a game.

Aw shucks, you're going to make me blush!

We'll see if I can keep it up. Might have been a blind squirrel/nut kind of thing. I just happened to hit on players that all the big boys chose not to.

The National Basketball Report
The Too Early Top Twenty
Filed: June 17, 1956

The beginning of this Too Early Top Twenty will have a familiar feel to it. But, dear reader, please make no mistake.


This is the year we begin to see wholesale change across the nation.


There are new teams across the landscape, ready to step up and show what they're worth. There are new stars, ready to claim their spot in the sky. There are teams moving up and down the ranks, and while the top of the ladder is the same old story, look down a few rungs.


It should also be noted, this is our toughest column to write, because there is so much ambiguity with potential. Many teams have potential, but nobody knows how it will play out. Things become slightly more clear after training camps end, and we get more reports from our staff, who seems to be repaired after flu and back season.


1. Kansas State: After three national semifinal appearances, and a loss in the championship game, a fourth semifinal appearance, on its own, would be a disappointment. This group of seniors--Billy Jacob, David Gunter, Tommy Fritts, and Erich Walton (and redshirt senior Greg Cole)--were the pick to win the championship in each of the last two seasons. They are the favorite once more, at least at this point in the season. No team has more expectations, more pressure, on them than the Wildcats. There may be no more pressure on any one player than sophomore forward Alec Larkin, who must replace Matthew Collins. Neither is there as much pressure on any senior than there is on Billy Jacob, the boy wonder who was the face of this Four Horsemen. If he is to cement his legacy in triumph, then he must lead his men to the ultimate victory. If he is to cement his legacy as a man who could not lead his horse to water, let this season end as the last three have: with unfulfilled goals.


2. North Carolina State: They sandbagged their program a year to let the kids--the four freshman of a year ago--get acclimated to this environment. Now, centers Chris Arenas and Elliott Weintraub are ready to contribute to America's biggest team. There are questions, of course: can Clayton Wheeler and Billy Munoz work themselves into the rotation seamlessly at guard, where NC State has a giant hole past point guard Chris Davis? Can they find adequate scoring at the guard spot? Do they have enough depth in the backcourt? For many teams, the backcourt is a strength. Not so at State, where they have a deep, yet somewhat unbalanced, roster. That said, they are nearly as talented as Kansas State, at least at this stage. We believe the Wolfpack will develop into the behemoth many thought they'd become, and do so this season.


3. Kansas: The defending champions lose Chris Seay, Earle Maldonaldo, and Rudolf Burke. But Arlon Rahn, the 7'1, 275-pound giant of a man, is only a sophomore. Luis Horne and Steven Burns return as one of the finest backcourts in the country, Irwin Lear is the next great guard in a growing lineage of great guards in Lawrence. And Loren Brown, David Acklin, Timmy McHugh, and fellow 7'1 center, freshman Dalton Martine, form more than an adequate support cast. It would not be shocking to see Kansas at the end again.


4. Kentucky: Curt Davis reminds many of Jerry Young, which is as favorable a comparison as one in Lexington can receive. He is a bit of a do-everything player, excellent defensively, efficient (mostly) on offense. Sophomore Scott Moncada is ready to take over for Dallas Kovacs at center. Lenny Snell is one of the top returning point guards in the nation. This team is fourth because of their potential. They can fall down this list...but they are the lead of the second tier of contenders, as of now.


5. Bradley: The Braves have reloaded behind four outstanding guards and 6'10 senior center James Calvo. They have the potential to be one of the best two-way teams in the country, with outstanding post defense and an offense that is equally diverse between the post and outside, takes care of the ball, and a defense that could be among the best in the nation. They need some of their younger pieces to come together--namely redshirt freshman Phil Overton and Jamal Steverson--but they have enough talent to win the MVC running away, and enough ability to make a serious national title run.


6. Duke: The Blue Devils are back after a rough year last season, where they were usurped by Clemson and North Carolina the ACC. Clemson has fallen completely apart, and while UNC will be very good, they don't have as much top-line talent as their archrival. Jonathan Fleenor and Lane McClary are as good a one-two punch as there is in the country. There are many younger players ready to help the two senior stars, including juniors Edison Reichard, Stefan Jordan, Elisha Oakley and Dewayne Jackson; sophomore Ray Griffin, and the curiously named Joesph Finger. That is not a mistake on our part. Redshirt freshman center Grant Wood looks like the real issue, while guard Charlie Rodriguez needs more seasoning. This team can win the conference, and more.


7. Indiana: The Hoosiers are the weakest they have been in the last four seasons, but that is relative. Two regular season losses would be evidence for this being their weakest team. The Hoosiers still have more talent than most, but the gap in the Big Ten is closing. And with Enoch Horn, Rupert Maldonaldo, and Marcos Godfrey gone, this team has a lot of questions...especially at guard, where they return just two players with any experience. Sure, Des Phillips and Ike Winfrey have a lot of talent; however, can they live up to the expectations of guards gone by? Godfrey was the best point guard in the nation last year. Horn, while not living up to expectations during his time in Bloomington, had an impossible task in trying to do so. The Hoosiers couldn't get it done when they had the best roster outside of Manhattan (Kansas) and are coming what is on the shortlist of biggest upsets in athletic history. For the first time, there are major questions to answers for the Hoosiers.


8. Dayton: This could look brilliant next year, or like total lunacy. Denver Logan, the 6'11, 270-pound wall, is back at center. He makes fellow center Jonathan Maus, at 6'9, 225, look like Eddie Haskell. If redhsirt senior guard Charlie Gomez rounds into form, and redshirt sophomore guard Chris Duron can take the next step after an injury wiped out most of last season, AND the bevy of talent that needs to grow (such as juniors Dwight Sweet, Angel Paquette and Gregory Lewis, and freshman Gary McCormick and Rickey Peterkin), this team can be every bit a leader in March. The qualifiers necessary for the Flyers to take off seems too many to overcome, but Dayton has that opportunity.


9. Southern California: It is definitely a little obtuse, selecting the Trojans as the current kingpin of the West Coast. This is like the Dayton pick; the Trojans have a stockpile of talent, but whether they can capitalize on that talent remains to be seen. JC Quiles and Allen Storer, the elder statesmen as juniors, have experience but not production you would expect of top players. So, this entire roster needs to take a step forward. As of now, though, no team in the PCC has more talent, and we do believe this is the year the Trojans take the next step. They have this kind of ceiling.


10. Oregon State: Reach here, but we'd rather be ahead of the curve on the Beavers than late on their bandwagon. Four starters return from last year's team, and Arthur Brodie is ready to star along with Fabio Pastor. Keep an eye on point guard Gerald Kutz; the redshirt freshman was the #14 overall recruit two years ago, and is an expert at passing and handling the ball. He's also a good defender, one who should be a hawk on the basketball, when held by the opposition. They'll have the depth and the talent. Whether or not it comes together in the shifting Pacific, well...it is there for the taking.


11. Arkansas: The Razorbacks are the best team unknown to most of the country, mostly because there are not many national media outlets in the state. But the Razorbacks, behind Seth Wessels, Kerry Groves, Bennett Dougherty, Will Bingham and Scott Garza, have a veteran group that has won before. We expect this team, with sophomore Mac Burroughs and junior John Berry, to make the lead to contender this season. The Southwest is one of the most difficult conferences to navigate in the country, and Arkansas should throttle it this season.


12. Iowa: The Hawkeyes are loaded with talent that is ready to grow. They have a veteran team--three starters return and five players have at least 56 games in the system. If players like forward Spencer Diamond, guard Joe Padgett, and forwards Brian Garrido and Columbus Dotson, are able to contribute to the rotation in a positive way, then the Hawkeyes are a major threat in a Big Ten dominated by Indiana. Guards Chet Terrazas and Tony Gargile, both seniors, lead the way...but if this team is really going to fly, then Diamond, guard Alvin Staley, and freshman center Tony Sipe, are going to begin to soar.


13. Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish finally broke through last year, though once they did, they fell with a thud. However, this year may be the year the Irish take a bigger step. They have incredible potential up and down the roster, and all players are nearing their potential. They also have three senior leaders in SG Guy Jeter, SF John Weekley, and 7' center, Dennis Sherwood. They also have several juniors, led by guards Elvis Cox and Angel Elbert, ready to take the next step up. They lack major size, but they should be a defensive terror.


14. North Carolina: Three starters return, led by forward Dennis Sawicki and guard Archie Means, return. Overall, nine players that have at least thirty games of regular duty are back, making the Tar Heels one of the most veteran teams out there. The team also adds redshirt freshman center Chris Stoner, the #5 overall recruit two years ago. Add in guards Johnnie Northern and Keven Walters, and forwards Darrel Brown and Emmanuel Shotwell, and this UNC team can contend for honors in the ACC.


15. California: We feel like, at this point, these teams have highlights, but also severe flaws. The backcourt of Tony Eyre and Tyron Crandall should be a crackerjack tandem, even if neither is a quality distributor. So, who plays the role of the lead guard? Both will tell you they should, and both may get a good look at filling the role. However, they lack playing depth at this position, and a lot of experience just about everyone. Rene Storm, Craig Kruger and Dale Frank would be complimentary pieces on most other teams; on the Bears. they'll likely be asked to start. There are many, however, who are excited by Marc Cundiff possibly stepping into the starting lineup. This isn't really because of his contributions last year, but the glimpses of brilliance he did demonstrate last year. He has an ability to get very hot with the outside shot, and is very quick.


16. La Salle: The Explorers return four starters from last year; of course, the one they lost, Timmy McSwain, was the key cog in last year's squad. Cam Perry and Lou Davies, along with Robert Woodcock, will be the nexus of this squad. That is a triumvirate worthy of lofty consideration. The Explorers will need returning forwards Donovan Cowles and Garth Russell to make good on their lofty potential. Contributors Xia Ding, Kenny Smith, and Charlie Dowdell will also give this squad a more formidable


17. Duquesne: The Dukes bring back three starters, including three-year starter, Chauncey Hinkley. PG Rod Williams and C Chris McKeehan will be the two that rise if Duquesne is also to rise. The Dukes are descending in national prestige, and if they are to sustain their place at the big table for the next wave of recruits, they will need to win this year. They should have enough off the bench, including Al Samson, James O'Grady, and Brent Dampier, to do just that.


18. St. John's: The Redmen can go six-deep immediately, and Kelvin Denton can become the star in the Metro, the King of New York. If Melvin Murray, Elvis Woods and David Bates can grow, the Johnnies become way more dangerous. That said, expect a 24-6 team by the time the NCAA hits. Nobody in the Metro can stand with them.


19. Michigan State: The Spartans return two starters, and three who have starting experience. Forward Cyril Clancy is the top returning player...but point guard Brent Burchell is the talk of East Lansing. The redshirt freshman was the top player in practice all last year, and should cause the offense to be much bette. He is also solid on defense, and is in excellent condition. The Connecticut-based guard should take the conference by storm. Add in incumbent Douglas Gibson, and power forward Chris Hendren, and you have a solid foursome leading this group. With all of their potential rising up, they could very well supplant Illinois in the top tier of the Big Ten.


20. Southern Methodist: The defending SWC champion Mustangs bring back three-year star, Charlie Garay, who may be the best player in the conference this year, and one of the most underappreciated players in the country. He has one of the best jump shots in the country, is a willing and more-than-able passer, and a very difficult defender. The rest will have to come together...but Art Freeman and Don Adam form a fantastic duo at point guard, C John Sanchez is an improving rebounder, and several players are able to round into top form. We said Arkansas should throttle the Southwest...well, if plans come together for Methodist, they won't have it that easy.

NBR Analytics

NBR offers college basketball fanatics across the fruited plain our warmest greetings and salutations as we announce the newest addition to our humble publication. The National Basketball Report Analytics Desk, or NBR Analytics for short, will present the findings of what is affectionately known in-house as the 'nerdery'. While the other reports detailing thoughts on each season will continue as they have been, the 'glorified accountants' at NBR Analytics will retire to the nerdery with their slide rules, focusing primarily on the impact of various changes in the sport on a bit longer scale. Whenever possible, we concern ourselves with analyzing data in unique, and hopefully the reports derived by these calculations will be of use to the reading public.


Shifting Sands: The 1956 Landscape

One need look no further than the unpleasantness experienced by the Hoosiers last year in the Dance to see that college basketball in this day and age is a decidedly unpredictable sport in many ways. To the discerning eye however, there are still patterns both general and specific that can be discovered and appraised. For NBR Analytics, this is the first business of a new season: assessing what has changed, and what it may mean for schools, coaches, players, and their fans across the nation.


Conference Realignments

Only one conference changed it's makeup, with the MVC adding Drake from the Independent ranks as it's 8th member. On the surface, this moves certainly appears likely to drag the conference down rather than improve it, the opposite of the leap forward that happened when Bradley joined last year. Bulldogs HC Joseph Steed, is his fourth year, is widely considered to be out of his depth and more suited to an assistant role as a scout or defensive-oriented practice assistant. Two on his staff are better recruiters than he is, and a 34-54 career record with declining wins each season is not particularly impressive.

The total number of independent programs stayed steady with Florida State entering the fray for a total of 171 schools fielding an entrant into the major college basketball competition.


Coaching Carousel

The single biggest piece of news this offseason is undoubtedly the stunning announcement that 35-year-old Scott Hanson has left Bradley to take on the vacancy at Memphis State. Try as we might, we can make no sense of this shocking maneuever. Bradley is clearly the dominant power in the MVC and just a year removed from a 1954 national championship, having made the Sweet 16 the other two years Hanson was at the helm there. He compiled an 83-13 record at a program that is considered to be among the top handful in the nation, and leaves for a virtually unknown independent program that sported a fine year last season in it's second in the competition, 20-13 with an NIT berth ... but Bradley they are not. I mean, was he bored? We may never know, but there just doesn't seem to be any rationale that we can see. For the Tigers, this is obviously a coup of seismic proportions.

Bradley went with a proven commodity, Tommie Teran. Teran has guided Seattle to three straight 20-win seasons, including an NCAA appearance last year. He is expected to give the Braves a focus more on the offensive end as opposed to Hanson's slightly defensive style and has a good eye for talent, but there are questions about his ability to recruit at the highest levels. Newcomers Florida State pulled off a major steal as well, luring La Salle's Elias Serrano away to take on a much more difficult rebuilding project. Serrano won 22 or more each year with the Explorers, and made it to the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 the last couple of years. He's considered an elite recruiter and excellent gameplanner, especially on offense. As with Hanson, we are scratching our heads here.

Elsewhere, George Jenkins leaves Morehead State to take over at Cincinatti, where he earned a reputation as a fine Xs and Os guy in earning back-to-back NCAA berths. We must question the Bearcats here though for bringing on a guy who hasn't proven he can recruit consistently to a program desperately in need of new talent on the court. The strange journey of Scott Dobbins continues as well. Unceremoniously and infamously fired by the Kansas Jayhawks after winning the national title in 1953, he spent the last couple of years as an assistant with Kentucky before getting another shot as a head coach now with Georgetown. No question he's got the ability to succeed, and it's a great move for the Hoyas. They were more or less forced to it with La Salle snagging their previous coach Royal Delgado after Serrano left ... no question to us that the Explorers got the short end of the stick as both of the other coaches are far superior both in resume and skills.

And so it goes. It would seem the biggest upshot here is that there are some Independent programs looking at brighter futures: Memphis State, Florida State, and Georgetown could be primed for some good years down the road if their newly acquired leaders stick around.


Conference Rankings

Herein are presented the results of our latest polling, showing which conferences are regarded as being the most prestigious at the dawn of a new year. For now our purpose here is to simply present the numbers without comment. We will take a closer look at each conference in reverse order from 'worst to first' throughout the off-season months.

1. Big 7(65.6)
2. ACC(64.6)
3. Big Ten(63.9)
4. PCC(59.4)
5. SEC(52.4)
6. WYN3(48.0)
7. MVC(47.4)
8. SWC(46.1)
9. MSAC(39.5)
10. WCC(39.4)
11. Southern(35.0)
12. MAC(30.9)
13. Ivy Group(30.8)
14. Metro NY(30.4)
15. Ohio Valley(30.0)
16. Yankee(29.2)
17. BIAA(27.8)


Top Quintile School Rankings

What programs have earned the respect of their peers and fans? Have a look at the top quintile, i.e. the top 20%, of the nation's contenders. We would remind the reader that this has nothing to do with how good the teams are this year or will be a few years from now, it is a measure only of their reputation at this point in time.

1(t). Kansas(100)
1(t). Kansas State(100)
3. Kentucky(96)
4. Indiana(94)
5. North Carolina State(91)
6. Bradley(90)
7. West Virginia(89)
8. Illinois(85)
9. Iowa(84)
10. North Carolina(82)
11. San Francisco(81)
12(t). California(80)
12(t). Washington(80)
14. Duquesne(76)
15. La Salle(75)
16. Dayton(74)
17. Duke(72)
18. Utah(70)
19(t). Cincinatti(68)
19(t). Temple(68)
21(t). St. John's(67)
21(t). Saint Louis(67)
23. Oklahoma A&M(66)
24(t). Louisville(64)
24(t). Seattle(64)
24(t). Columbia(64)
27(t). Clemson(63)
27(t). Southern Methodist(63)
27(t). Saint Mary's(63)
30(t). Holy Cross(62)
30(t). Oregon State(62)
30(t). Mississippi State(62)
30(t). Vanderbilt(62)
34. Toledo(61)

New Blood: Re-Assessing the Incoming 1956 Recruits

We find ourselves compelled to take issue with the 'official' recruiting rankings, which seems somewhat odd to us in their methodology. They seem to place too much emphasis on the number of recruits, as if a horde of warm bodies could somehow make up for a lack of talent, largely a demonstrably untrue assessment. Even more importantly, they seem to be based on rankings and star ratings from the scouting services which are a year old. Such things are extremely valuable for their time, a time which has now passed. It is always best to base conclusions on the best information available, and we've learned much about these players in the past year.

Therefore with little further ado we present NBR's own recruiting rankings. These are based on a 9-point scale, and for us the relevant factor is the average quality of recruits coming in to a given program. Certainly it's harder to deal with a larger class, but that is a consideration for each coach to consider; we do not find it useful to reward or punish them for imbalanced classes from year to year. We grade here only on what they did with the scholarships available to them for this season. A modest penalty is included for every unfilled scholarship, and a modest bonus for those recruits ready to contribute immediately.

We find the star rating system to be useful, and will appropriate it for the purposes here.

5-Star Classes

These are quite rare, and encompass those schools with a rating at 8.0 or above in our system. This indicates that they managed to pull in blue-chip prospects across the board. Even the best programs in the country should be pleased to be mentioned here. This season, out of 171 there are but two in this section, an indicator of the difficulty of the achievement.

1. Indiana(8.63)
2. Kansas(8.0)

The Jayhawks were listed first in the official rankings; here already we have our first disagreement, though Kansas obviously has a fine group of new players to be proud of. Indiana's haul is simply amazing though, all players with very high ceilings and pretty well-developed already. It's a near-perfect set of youngsters to reload with.

4-Star

Most programs that are, or aspire to be, national powers will find themselves here with a mix of good and great players. Duds are rare if any are to be found at all among their new recruits. Those classes in the 5.0 to 7.99 range are included.

3(t). Purdue(7.17)
3(t). Washington(7.17)
5. Stanford(6.75)
6. North Carolina State(6.5)
7. Ohio State(6.25)
8(t). Kansas State(5.83)
8(t). Duquesne(5.83)
10. Southern California(5.67)
11(t). Oregon State(5.5)
11(t). UCLA(5.5)
13. California(5.25)
14. Arkansas(5.13)
15. Louisiana State(5.0)

3 Stars

Fewer than 10% of the schools in the country have yet been accounted for. In this next category we list those in the 4.0-4.99 range, consistently classes with good players but generally few if any truly top-shelf talents. Only the very elite programs which believe themselves perennial national contenders would be disappointed to be named here.

16. Bradley(4.88)
17(t). Illinois(4.67)
17(t). Alabama(4.67)
19(t). Iowa State(4.5)
19(t). Michigan(4.5)
19(t). Villanova(4.5)
19(t). Colorado A&M(4.5)
19(t). Southern Methodist(4.5)
24. Temple(4.38)
25(t). Iowa(4.33)
25(t). Northwestern(4.33)
25(t). Penn State(4.33)
28(t). Duke(4.25)
28(t). Virginia(4.25)
28(t). Colorado(4.25)
28(t). Michigan State(4.25)
28(t). Wisconsin(4.25)
33(t). North Carolina(4.17)
33(t). St. John's(4.17)
33(t). Oklahoma A&M(4.17)
33(t). Mississippi State(4.17)
37(t). Arizona(4.0)
37(t). Brown(4.0)
37(t). Washington State(4.0)

2 Stars

Another level down we find those in the 2.0-3.99 bracket. At this tier we would expect to find a good number of schools playing in the smaller conferences. A mix of good and only marginally talented players are found here. By far, this is where the lion's share of programs find themselves.

40. Agricultural & Mechanic(3.8)
41. Saint Joseph's(3.75)
42. Oregon(3.67)
43(t). Davidson(3.63)
43(t). West Virginia(3.63)
45(t). Municipal University of Wichita(3.5)
45(t). Murray State(3.5)
45(t). Santa Clara(3.5)
48. Columbia(3.4)
49. Wake Forest(3.38)
50(t). Notre Dame(3.33)
50(t). Nebraska(3.33)
50(t). Tennessee Tech(3.33)
50(t). Georgia(3.33)
50(t). Kentucky(3.33)
55. Connecticut(3.17)
56. Lehigh(3.13)
57. Texas(3.1)
58(t). Bucknell(3.0)
58(t). Colgate(3.0)
58(t). Loyola-IL(3.0)
58(t). Rutgers(3.0)
58(t). Siena(3.0)
58(t). Western Kentucky(3.0)
58(t). Florida(3.0)
58(t). Georgia Tech(3.0)
58(t). Tennessee(3.0)
58(t). VMI(3.0)
58(t). Virginia Tech(3.0)
58(t). Baylor(3.0)
58(t). San Francisco(3.0)
71. South Carolina(2.9)
72. Tulane(2.88)
73(t). Seattle(2.83)
73(t). Drake(2.83)
73(t). Idaho(2.83)
73(t). Loyola U of Los Angeles(2.83)
77. West Texas State(2.8)
78. Utah State Agricultural College(2.75)
79. Dayton(2.7)
80(t). Arizona State(2.67)
80(t). Memphis State(2.67)
80(t). Dartmouth(2.67)
80(t). Eastern Kentucky State(2.67)
84. Pittsburgh(2.63)
85. Vanderbilt(2.6)
86(t). New Mexico A&M(2.5)
86(t). Navy(2.5)
86(t). Pennsylvania(2.5)
86(t). Manhattan(2.5)
86(t). Western Michigan(2.5)
86(t). Houston(2.5)
86(t). Utah(2.5)
86(t). Vermont(2.5)
94. Middle Tennessee(2.4)
95(t). Idaho State(2.33)
95(t). Miami(2.33)
95(t). Muhlenburg(2.33)
95(t). Brooklyn(2.33)
95(t). Miami-Ohio(2.33)
95(t). Morehead State(2.33)
95(t). Citadel(2.33)
95(t). Yale(2.33)
95(t). St. Bonaventure(2.33)
104(t). Gonzaga(2.25)
104(t). Brigham Young(2.25)
104(t). Texas Christian(2.25)
104(t). Pacific(2.25)
104(t). Rhode Island(2.25)
109(t). Saint Francis-PA(2.2)
109(t). Marshall(2.2)
109(t). Alabama Polytechnic Institute(2.2)
112. San Jose State(2.13)
113(t). Saint Louis(2.0)
113(t). Oklahoma(2.0)
113(t). Loyola-LA(2.0)
113(t). Seton Hall(2.0)
113(t). Xavier(2.0)
113(t). Princeton(2.0)
113(t). New York University(2.0)
113(t). St. Francis-NY(2.0)
113(t). Bowling Green State(2.0)
113(t). Ohio(2.0)
113(t). Denver(2.0)
113(t). Mississippi(2.0)
113(t). George Washington(2.0)
113(t). Rice(2.0)
113(t). Saint Mary's(2.0)
113(t). Niagara(2.0)
113(t). University of Maine at Or(2.0)

1 Star

We are now near the bottom, but have not quite reached it. Even schools struggling in the weakest conferences in the nation and low-ranking independents will be at least somewhat disappointed to not rank higher than this; and yet there are some surprisingly well-regarded programs here. Here are found those in the 1.0-1.99 range.

130. Hardin-Simmons(1.8)
131(t). Lafayette(1.75)
131(t). Canisius(1.75)
133. Portland(1.7)
134(t). Tulsa(1.63)
134(t). Cincinatti(1.63)
136. Pepperdine(1.62)
137(t). Army(1.6)
137(t). La Salle(1.6)
139(t). Butler(1.5)
139(t). Creighton(1.5)
139(t). DePaul(1.5)
139(t). Toledo(1.5)
139(t). Furman(1.5)
139(t). New Hampshire(1.5)
145. Holy Cross(1.4)
146. William & Mary(1.33)
147(t). Missouri(1.0)
147(t). Georgetown(1.0)
147(t). Iona(1.0)
147(t). Marquette(1.0)
147(t). Oklahoma City(1.0)
147(t). Texas Technological College(1.0)
147(t). City College of New York(1.0)
147(t). Fordham(1.0)
147(t). Kent State(1.0)
147(t). New Mexico(1.0)
147(t). Wyoming(1.0)
147(t). Harvard(1.0)
147(t). Massachusetts(1.0)

Zero Stars

One might ask why we don't use a 1-6 instead of a 0-5 star system. The reason for this is that the bottom tier is generally not worthy of any credit at all. We mean this literally; most are here not because they didn't recruit well, but because they didn't recruit period, forcing their team to make do with extra walk-ons and not bringing in any new scholarship talent at all.

160. Boston College(0.75)
161(t). Maryland(0.67)
162(t). Louisville(0.67)
163(t). Minnesota(0.6)
163(t). Texas Western(0.6)
165. Clemson(0.5)
166. Florida State(0.46)
167. Montana(0.4)
168. Mercy College of Detroit(0.38)
169. Cornell(0.25)
170. Syracuse(0.17)
171. Richmond(0.0)

It is striking that even the Seminoles, who are relying soley on walk-ons in their first year of competition, managed to not be last in this rundown. It's hard not to go up from here.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball

Armed with the latest figures on the new recruits, we can now begin to look at the next few years with more intelligent guestimates.

Top Quintile Talent Rankings

These are the same as those for reputation, except that here we are focused on the schools best positioned with talent to succeed over the next few seasons. The quality of underclassmen is what is in view here.

1(t). North Carolina State(6.91)
1(t). Indiana(6.91)
3. Kansas(6.6)
4. Kansas State(6.25)
5. North Carolina(5.82)
6. Duke(5.8)
7. Duquesne(5.1)
8. Southern California(5.08)
9. Illinois(5.0)
10. Oregon State(4.92)
11. San Francisco(4.8)
12. UCLA(4.75)
13. Kentucky(4.67)
14. California(4.6)
15(t). Iowa(4.4)
15(t). Bradley(4.4)
17. Washington(4.36)
18(t). Iowa State(4.25)
18(t). Saint Joseph's(4.25)
20. Stanford(4.07)
21(t). Colorado(4.0)
21(t). Temple(4.0)
21(t). Arkansas(4.0)
24. Ohio State(3.91)
25. Villanova(3.71)
26. Virginia(3.7)
27(t). Michigan State(3.67)
27(t). Purdue(3.67)
29(t). Notre Dame(3.6)
29(t). Seattle(3.6)
31. La Salle(3.55)
32. Southern Methodist(3.5)
33. Wake Forest(3.44)
34. Mississippi State(3.4)

BTW, I didn't write any of that.

That was done by our news section and by the NBR Analytics guy

Right off the bat this year the PCC is awfully though.

Washington is ranked 7th
Cal is ranked 8th
Oregon State is 15th
We are 24th
UCLA is 25th

and if that's note enough for ya Stanford comes in as receiving other votes.

Not sure how I feel about being ranked 24th this early. We really haven't proven ourselves and when we have been given the opportunity we have crapped the bed... However we do have some potential, we just need to live up to it this year.

As you can also see our Conf got after it recruiting wise. 3 out of the top 10 recruiting classes call their homes in the PCC.

We held our own at number 18, and had 5 teams being in the top 25. That is pretty damn good for us.

Jess Johnson at Washington is going to be a monster next year as a freshman (he is redshirting this year).

I don't have anybody that can compete on his level, which means we gotta put some work in this year. We need 20 wins, some luck, and a run into the NCAA tourney this year. An NIT run would be a disappointment this year. I have always said this would be the year USC would be able to hold its own, and I hope that we can do just that.

I liked my recruiting class. I don't have any world beaters like Washington got, but they are solid guys. I especially like a post player that I feel is under rated.


At 6'10 he is already one of the taller players in the league, and with a 17 rating of inside already, he is going to create some major problems in the post for a few years on the offensive side of the ball. When you look at the PCC in general, there aren't really any dominant big men left. Next year there will be 4 guys that will be able to hang with him, and ill take that. I think the PCC is weak in the post (me included) but that just means we should be in contention.

Our Roster looks like this

We are a little bit weak on D and rebounding on the defensive side. However, we should be able to put the ball in the hoop and I am hoping one of the best teams in the country on the offensive side of the glass. My 2 starting post guys on the glass are at 18 and 19, which I am hoping create all kinds of problems. Our guards aren't slacking in that area either.

I am taking another risk, and only have 3 posts on the roster that will play. My 4th again this year is redshirting. Next season will be my first with having 4 posts available as far as depth goes. We aren't there yet, but we are getting there.

This year marks the debut of 6'4 guard Edmond Nelson. Not sure where he is gonna play yet. We have a log jam at guards, so still deciding on the 2 or 3, but that is a good problem to have. We haven't had the amount of depth we will have this year. We could go 9 deep and be ok with it, but hoping we can stick with 7 and have some fun with that.

I'm hoping Fontes can step up and actually be the shut down post that he's supposed to have been for three years now. Unfortunately, he's never had support from the PF slot, and this year won't be much different. Plant is all about the offensive side of the ball.

I have a serious man-crush on Johnson. Even if it wasn't my policy to try to redshirt all my freshmen, he would have needed it because of his terrible stamina rating, but by next season he should be a beast, and I can't wait to see what he looks like as a senior. I got very, very lucky that the big boys in recruiting (Kansas, K State, Kentucky, Indiana, NC State, etc) all passed him over during the first couple of months and I was able to lock him in.

1956 Prospectus:

Washington hit a couple of milestones last season as they claimed their first PCC title and advanced beyond the 1st round of the NCAA under Coach DeGrasse, as well as notching 31 wins. Expectations are high in Seattle, but with some key losses in Joshua Lopez and Ellis Murphy, it may be difficult to repeat that success. Still, this is a talented roster with a lot of positives, including a very talented Senior in Daniel Fenton to lead the way. While this team differs some from the 1955 version, there's a lot to like, and another PCC title is certainly possible. Here's the projected starting lineup as the Huskies look to defend their Pre-Season NIT Tournament Championship when they face off against Toledo:

C: Francis Calhoun (Jr*)
PF: Gregoire Dupretz (Fr*)
SF: Gisbert Bittes (Sr*)
SG: Italo Malocco (Jr)
PG: Daniel Fenton (Sr)

Key reserves: PG Marquis Gray (Fr*), SG/SF Manuel Parenteau (Fr*), PG Wayne Toro (So*), SG Jose Park (So*), C/PF Burt Lingle (So*)

Strengths: Very good team passing and ball-handling; strong outside shooters; above-average rebounders; good defensive skills, particularly along the perimeter; very deep in the backcourt; excellent overall athleticism

Weaknesses: Lacking a low-post offensive threat; no true shot-blocking enforcer down low; lacks quality depth in the post

Summary: Washington won't be quite the defensive giants they were last season with Lopez lost to graduation, but while they will take step back in post defense, they should be even better defenders on the perimeter and be among the top teams in the country in steals and forcing turnovers. They will also take a step back in rebounding with Lopez gone, though Calhoun made big strides in training to help mitigate that loss.

The big news is the move of Fenton to PG. He's always had the skill-set for the role, but with other highly capable 1's on the roster Washington had the luxury of playing him at the 2. Now he gets to run the show, and we're expecting big things. Super-sub Malocco jumps into the starting lineup thanks to his defense, ball-hawking and surprising offensive production. There's tremendous depth in the backcourt with highly-touted RS-Fr Gray and RS-So Toro providing quality options at PG, and RS-Fr Parenteau joining RS-So Park as 6th man scoring options at the wing. Bittes enters his Senior season as a well-rounded "glue guy" at the SF spot. A big question mark will be depth in the post. RS-Fr Dupretz enters the starting lineup while Lingle will again be the primary backup; injuries here could be a huge problem for the Huskies.

Conclusion: The Huskies will be hard-pressed to match last season's success in the win column; the PCC continues to get better and there are at least 5 legit contenders for the conference crown this season - going 15-1 in conference play is extremely unlikely. Still, there are a lot of things to like about how this roster lines up - between plus rebounding and excellent ball-hawking, the Huskies should typically finish with a big edge in possessions, and there's enough shooting talent and passing ability to think that the offense will again be among the more efficient in the country. As long as the interior defense holds up and the post players stay healthy, this team should earn their 4th straight NCAA bid and be right in the thick of the PCC conference race.

The National Basketball Report: 1956-57 Season Preview

As we said a few months ago, the times are changing.


New programs are rising up against the old guard, those that have stood their ground for the last four seasons. The hotbed of basketball is heading west, then further west. The PCC owns our own title of top conference this year, with the ACC trailing not far behind.


You'll also notice a change in our own preview. With the increasing presence of statistics and the analytical element, we introduced the NBR Analytics Bureau in our Too Early issue. They have been a brilliant presence here at the Agency, giving depth and reason, as well as push-back, to what we see with our eyes, and feel with our instinct. To say that they add to our reports is like saying freshly fallen snow adds to Christmas dawn.

It is a universal believe, and needs no more words.

You will find the Analytics Report at the conclusion of each conference preview.

We all hope you enjoy.


Preseason Top Twenty
1. Kansas State
2. North Carolina State
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
5. Duquesne
6. North Carolina
7. Indiana
8. Washington
9. Bradley
10. Duke
11. Arkansas
12. California
13. Iowa
14. West Virginia
15. Seattle
16. Southern Cal
17. Dayton
18. San Francisco
19. Villanova
20. Notre Dame


National Player of the Year: G John Hildebrand, West Virginia
National Newcomer of the Year: C Mario Poe, Columbia


Preseason All-America Team
G: John Hildebrand, West Virginia (Sr)
G: Billy Jacob, Kansas State (Sr)
F: Dennis Sawicki, North Carolina (Jr)
F: Curt Davis, Kentucky (Jr)
C: Arlon Rahn, Kansas (So)


G: Danny Fenton, Washington (Sr)
G: Elijah Davis, Clemson (Sr)
F: Arthur Brodie, Oregon State (Jr*)
F: Richard Bulger, Bradley (Sr*)
C: Nickolas Parker, Tennessee Tech (Jr)


Atlantic Coast Conference (Conference Rank: 2)
1) North Carolina State 2) North Carolina 3) Duke
Sleeper: Maryland
Preseason Player of the Year: F Dennis Sawicki, North Carolina
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: C Chris Stoner, North Carolina
Rising: Virginia
Falling: Clemson
Best Backcourt: North Carolina
Best Frontcourt: North Carolina State
Best Offense: Duke
Best Defense: North Carolina
Best Bench: North Carolina State
Best Scorer: G Elijah Davis, Clemson
Best Passer: G Archie Means, North Carolina
Best Rebounder: C John Rossi, North Carolina State
Best Defender: C John Rossi, North Carolina
Best Sixth Man: G Ray Griffin, Duke
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: F Howard Clower, Maryland
NCAA Teams: North Carolina State, North Carolina, Duke
NIT Teams: Maryland, Virginia
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Elijah Davis, Clemson (Sr)
G: Lane McClary, Duke (Sr)
F: Dennis Sawicki, North Carolina (Jr)
F: Louis Bergeron, North Carolina State (So*)
C: John Rossi, North Carolina State (Sr*)
Synopsis: With the fall of Clemson, order is seemingly restored to the ACC. North Carolina State purposely sacrificed last year for this season, and they look the part of a national championship contender. North Carolina and Duke will not let them off easily, of course. Either would make a worthy champion, both of the conference, and of the nation. Virginia and Maryland should provide suitable resistance to Tobacco Road, but in the end, it comes down to the dynamic duo of Duke, the veterans of North Carolina, or the long-term vision of the Wolfpack.


Analytics
Reputation: 2nd(64.6)
Talent: 1st(4.15)
Recruiting: 6th(2.90)


No conference can claim to be in a better position than the ACC, but it's a precarious one. It's a top-heavy league, but one with an impressive power structure. There are six programs that are really head-and-shoulders above the rest going forward and three of them are here. N.C. State is the head of the snake but North Carolina and Duke appear neck-and-neck as major national powers behind them. Virginia, Wake Forest, and South Carolina provide a solid middle as well. Unfortunately, Clemson has fallen off a cliff and Maryland seems to be following them over the edge as well. This was also not a good year for the ACC in recruiting, to put it mildly; our assessment is that everyone except Virginia took a step backwards to one degree or another. Nobody will want any part of the Big 3 here for the next few seasons, but if things don't turn around they won't be able to hold their current status as probably the top conference in the nation.


Big 7 Conference (Conference Rank: 3)
1) Kansas State 2) Kansas 3) Colorado
Sleeper: Nebraska
Preseason Player of the Year: G Billy Jacob, Kansas State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Irwin Lear, Kansas
Rising: Nebraska
Falling: Missouri
Best Backcourt: Kansas State
Best Frontcourt: Kansas
Best Offense: Kansas State
Best Defense: Kansas State
Best Bench: Kansas State
Best Scorer: G Billy Jacob, Kansas state
Best Passer: G Steven Burns, Kansas
Best Rebounder: F Chris Spratt, Iowa State
Best Defender: F Tommy Fritts, Kansas State
Best Sixth Man: G Normand Herbert, Kansas State
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G David Gunter, Kansas State
NCAA Teams: Kansas State, Kansas
NIT Teams: Colorado
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Billy Jacob, Kansas State (Sr)
G: David Gunter, Kansas State (Sr)
F: Tommy Fritts, Kansas State (Sr)
F: Erich Walton, Kansas State (Sr)
C: Arlon Rahn, Kansas (So)
Synopsis: In the Too Early piece, we discussed the ticking clock on Kansas State's legacy. They have reached the National Semifinals three straight seasons, and have nothing to show for it. Rather, the national title in two of those three years have gone to the Jayhawks, who seem to be able to expert brilliantly in March. The two are star-crossed once again, as the last of that incredible group that arrived in Manhattan four years ago play out the final act of their collegiate careers. Standing in their way is the Automarahn, the 7'1, 282 immovable object standing in the heart of Lawrence. Of course, there is plenty around Arlon Rahn...but he is the symbol of what Kansas State must go through (first), as they try to write a happy ending to the story of the last four years. Colorado, Nebraska, and Iowa State all have redeeming qualities that should endear themselves to those who select the NIT. But this, as it has been, is a two-horse race. It is, much like the last three years, one built for distance, not as a sprint.


Analytics
Reputation: 1st(65.6)
Talent: 4th(3.52)
Recruiting: 2nd(5.03)


One of the Kansas superpowers has played in the national title game for the past three years, with the Jayhawks winning both of theirs while the Wildcats lost to Bradley in the middle of that. It's no wonder that popular opinion has the Big 7 as the best around with those kind of results. Colorado and Iowa State provide a very solid second tier, but we are far less impressed with Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. The Tigers in particular have all the appearance of a ship sinking, and doing so pretty quickly. We think Kansas has gained the upper hand over their in-state rivals, and figures to edge them out as the top program not just here but anywhere. The weakness of the bottom three schools though will eventually rob the Big 7 of some of it's luster if it continues.


Big Ten Conference (Conference Rank: 4)
1) Indiana 2) Iowa 3) Michigan State
Sleeper: Illinois
Preseason Player of the Year: F Cyril Clancy, Michigan State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: C Columbus Dotson, Iowa
Rising: Ohio State
Falling: Northwestern
Best Backcourt: Iowa
Best Frontcourt: Indiana
Best Offense: Indiana
Best Defense: Indiana
Best Bench: Indiana
Best Scorer: G Des Phillips, Indiana
Best Passer: G Chet Terrazas, Iowa
Best Rebounder: F Merv Erickson, Indiana
Best Defender: C Octavio Broussard, Indiana
Best Sixth Man: G Paul Williams, Iowa
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: C Octavio Broussard, Indiana
NCAA Teams: Indiana, Iowa
NIT Teams: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Des Phillips, Indiana (So)
G: Chet Terrazas, Iowa (Sr)
F: Cyril Clancy, Michigan State (Sr)
F: Joshua Stripling, Northwestern (So)
C: Octavio Broussard, Indiana (Sr)
Synopsis: The Hoosiers are very vulnerable. only one-and-a-half starters return (Erickson started 14 games in his career). Iowa is coming on strong, and while nobody else in the conference is a terrible threat to take the title, Indiana has to feel as insecure as possible about repeating for the fourth time. Iowa, behind their stellar backcourt, will pressure Indiana's young guards. Michigan State has a solid starting group, though their bench lends itself to question. Illinois has regressed, but they have enough talent to beat anyone, anytime. The rest of the Big Ten have major holes, but there is more talent in the league than there ever has. Watch Ohio State closely; they have a lot of youth, a wealth of potential, and have the feel of a sleeping giant.
Analytics
Reputation: 3rd(63.9)
Talent: 3rd(3.64)
Recruiting: 3rd(4.75)


The Big Ten is definitely an elite conference, but it is not quite as good as it thinks it is or as public opinion thinks it is, at least not yet. There's no question that Indiana has as bright a future as any program in the country. Iowa and Illinois are an over-rated second tier though: they have only one NCAA win in the last three years between them, and while they are still better than the rest of the conference, the gap between them and the Hoosiers is much greater than commonly thought. Gradually rising to catch them is Ohio State, followed closely by Michigan State and Purdue. Michigan is sort of in no-man's land by themselves, not as good as that trio but well ahead of Northwestern and Wisconsin. Minnesota has collapsed; few schools in the country have less talent than the Gophers and we expect them to be a doormat for at least a while.

While Illinois and Iowa are an exception, most of the conference was strengthened in the recruiting haul this year. As a whole, the Big Ten was not far behind the Big 7 and PCC, and far ahead of everyone else in terms of incoming prospects. This is the continuation of a trend the last few years that has seen increasing numbers of highly regarded players joining the league, and there's no question the conference is getting better. In the next few years, the overall product should match it's outsized reputation.


Border Conference (Conference Rank: 16)
1) Arizona 2) Texas Western 3) Arizona State
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: G Silvio Flores, Texas Western
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Len Smith, Arizona
Rising: Texas Western
Falling: Arizona State
Best Backcourt: Texas Western
Best Frontcourt: Arizona
Best Offense: Arizona
Best Defense: Arizona State
Best Bench: Texas Western
Best Scorer: G Elden Trull, Arizona State
Best Passer: G Robert Williams, Texas Western
Best Rebounder: F Roland Dabney, Texas Western
Best Defender: G Hayden Murray, Arizona State
Best Sixth Man: G Hayden Murray, Arizona State
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Elden Trull, Arizona State
NCAA Teams: Arizona State
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Silvio Flores, Texas Western (Jr)
G: Elden Trull, Arizona State (Sr*)
F: Roland Dabney, Texas Western (Sr)
F: Jonathan Moeller, Arizona (So)
C: Kris Jensen, Arizona State (Sr)
Synopsis: The conference has fallen over the past two seasons, but the top three--Arizona State, Texas Western, and Arizona--remain large within the league parameters. The Miners can steal this behind their backcourt...but the Sun Devils, with their stout defense, should be able to run away with things.


Analytics
Reputation: 18th(27.8)
Talent: 15th(1.87)
Recruiting: 13th(2.14)


The BIAA is definitely in the lowest tier of conferences, but it is somewhat under-rated. When you are thought of as dead last, there is nowhere to go but up. Arizona is the best-positioned going forward, with Arizona State looking ready to surpass distintegrating Texas Western in the runner-up position. However, this is a conference that is very competitive, and nobody is very good -- for the most part it's looking like a year-to-year scramble with no clear hierarchy behind Arizona's small advantage at the top. There isn't a school here that I would mention as definitely being in the top half nationwide. It was a pretty good recruiting year, and it's possible the BIAA may drag itself somewhat up the chain as the years progress.


Ivy Group (Conference Rank: 8)
1) Columbia 2) Dartmouth 3) Princeton
Sleeper: Pennsylvania
Preseason Player of the Year: F Sonny Freeman, Dartmouth
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: C Mario Poe, Columbia
Rising: Brown
Falling: Harvard
Best Backcourt: Princeton
Best Frontcourt: Columbia
Best Offense: Dartmouth
Best Defense: Pennsylvania
Best Bench: Columbia
Best Scorer: F Sonny Freeman, Dartmouth
Best Passer: G Stephen Martin, Cornell
Best Rebounder: C Marvin Maroney, Harvard
Best Defender: C Havel Richter, Yale
Best Sixth Man: G Marquis Theriot, Yale
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G James Paradis, Yale
NCAA Teams: Columbia
NIT Teams: Dartmouth
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: James Paradis, Yale (Sr)
G: Justin Root, Columbia (Sr)
F: Sonny Freeman, Dartmouth (Jr)
F: Charlie Smith, Dartmouth (Jr)
C: Mario Poe, Columbia (Fr)
Synopsis: The gap between Columbia and the rest of the Ivy is closing. The Lions, which enjoyed ranked status last year, could again this season. The cause of this result would be Mario Poe dominating the Group. The freshman is quite capable of that. The Indians, with their talented forwards in Freeman and Smith, along with Roddy McFall at the point, will be a severe threat to the Lions' sustainted dominance. We wrote that last year, and truth be told, the Indians nearly knocked off the Lions. Princeton will be a tough out, while Penn will use this season to prepare for the next two, when they could somehow be the kings of the conference. The Ivy is one of the most heated, highly-contested conferences in the nation. This year will be no different.


Analytics
Reputation: 14th(30.8)
Talent: T-11th(2.05)
Recruiting: 8th(2.48)


It's hard to have stringent admission standards like the Ivy schools do and not have a bit of an arrogant chip on your shoulder, but they don't really seem to try to resist the tendency much. Collectively they are among the best of the bottom of the barrel, which is fairly impressive given the conference's requirements for prospective students. Three-time defending champion Columbia is the unquestioned king of the hill, and they will probably stay there but it is no longer a sure thing. They have a massive advantadge in financial resources, but we actually like Dartmouth's collection of players a little bitter over th next few years and Brown's every bit as well with Penn not far behind. That quartet appears to be the new power structure. Princeton appears to be in chaos with their third coach in as many years, with Yale close behind them, Harvard just unable to attract much real talent and Cornell having decided they basically don't care about anything anymore at the bottom. Even with that, it appears that the Ivy will likely continue to improve, at least somewhat, overall in the coming years. There are a number of effective coaches here. Whether they can do enough to escape their spot among college basketball's also-rans is uncertain though.


Metro Conference (Conference Rank: 15)
1) St. John's 2) St. John's JVs 3) NYU
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: C Dennis Shelby, St. John's
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Melvin Murray, St. John's
Rising: CCNY
Falling: Fordham
Best Backcourt: St. John's
Best Frontcourt: St. John's
Best Offense: St. John's
Best Defense: St. John's
Best Bench: St. John's
Best Scorer: G Justin Drummond, NYU
Best Passer: G Andres Peden, CCNY
Best Rebounder: F Kelvin Denton, St. John's
Best Defender: F Kelvin Denton, St. John's
Best Sixth Man: F Kelvin Denton, St. John's
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: F Veniamin Alexeev, St. John's
NCAA Teams: St. John's
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Justin Drummond, NYU (Jr)
G: Andres Peden, CCYU (Jr)
F: Kelvin Denton, St. John's (Jr*)
F: Veniamin Alexeev, St. John's (Sr)
C: Dennis Shelby, St. John's (Jr*)
Synopsis: It's the Johnnies, then their backups, then everyone else. The City has various parts around it that are appealing, and City games are always fun to watch for the rivalry. But there is no debate here. The Johnnies are 17-1 in conference play since its formation, and will be 23-1 at the end of this year. They're also young...we don't expect them to contend nationally, but they have enough games with national issue that, with the right teaching from those games, they can be on the radar next season.


Analytics
Reputation: 15th(30.4)
Talent: 18th(1.83)
Recruiting: 14th(2.14)


This here is as bad as it gets in the sport today. St. John's has a solid team, though not quite as good as you'd expect. The rest of the Metro flat-out stinks. NYU is considered a credible number two, which they are minus the term 'credible', as they are barely better than the rest of the drek here. It is not a conference without potential to improve; there is a lot of homegrown talent in New York, but right now most of it is poached by others. Brooklyn and Manhattan appear to be getting a little better, but the coaching is pretty awful on balance in the league and until that changes, no major improvements are anticipated.


Mid-American Conference (Conference Rank: 12)
1) Toledo 2) Kent State 3) Marshall
Sleeper: Miami-Ohio
Preseason Player of the Year: F Mike Gehring, Kent State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Marco Goldman, Western Michigan
Rising: Bowling Green
Falling: Miami-Ohio
Best Backcourt: Toledo
Best Frontcourt: Toledo
Best Offense: Toledo
Best Defense: Toledo
Best Bench: Toledo
Best Scorer: G Darnell Carrington, Kent State
Best Passer: G Don Larson, Western Michigan
Best Rebounder: F Mike Gehring, Toledo
Best Defender: F Gordon Barron, Toledo
Best Sixth Man: G Brian Schmaranzer, Toledo
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: F Mike Gehring, Kent State
NCAA Teams: Toledo
NIT Teams: Kent State
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Timmy Torre, Toledo (Jr)
G: MIchael Ashe, Marshall (Sr)
F: Mike Gehring, Kent State (Sr)
F: Gordon Barron, Toledo (Sr*)
C: Irvin Sullivan, Bowling Green (Jr)
Synopsis: Toledo could go oh-fer this season, and it is doubtful anyone would hold it against them. All they did is deliver the greatest upset in sports history, knocking off Indiana in the first round of the NCAA last season. Most of that group is gone, but a few remain. Add in the fact that the majority of the MAC is young, and the Rockets should be able to get back to the NCAA Tournament once again.


Analytics
Reputation: 13th(30.9)
Talent: 13th(2.01)
Recruiting: 16th(2.00)


The Mid-American's chance to be something other than an afterthought has long rested with standard-bearers Toledo. Unfortunately, the Rockets haven't brought in any significant talent lately, and in another year or two they may not be much better than the rest here. Last year's upset of Indiana and eventually run to the Elite Eight got them a lot of deserved attention, but it won't last unless they massively upgrade their recruiting effectiveness. Behind them, it's a highly competitive mess of barely-competent programs, with the exception of Ohio who is a couple steps behind the rest.


Missouri Valley Conference (Conference Rank: 6)
1) Bradley 2) Saint Louis 3) Oklahoma A&M
Sleeper: Wichita Municipal
Preseason Player of the Year: G Michael Laguna, Saint Louis
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G James Gomez, Wichita Municipal
Rising: Wichita Municipal
Falling: Houston
Best Backcourt: Saint Louis
Best Frontcourt: Bradley
Best Offense: Bradley
Best Defense: Bradley
Best Bench: Bradley
Best Scorer: G Dionisio Vega, Bradley
Best Passer: G Jody Spring, Saint Louis
Best Rebounder: F Felix Holzer, Bradley
Best Defender: F Richard Bulger, Bradley
Best Sixth Man: G Max Cruse, Bradley
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: C James Calvo, Bradley
NCAA Teams: Bradley, Saint Louis
NIT Teams: Oklahoma A&M
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Dionisio Vega, Bradley (Jr)
G: Michael Laguna, Saint Louis (Sr)
F: Richard Bulger, Bradley (Sr*)
F: Loyd Gardiner, Detroit Mercy (Jr)
C: James Calvo, Bradley (Sr*)
Synopsis: We thought Bradley would drop off after entering a conference, but they have made the transition from independent seamlessly. This year's team is decidedly on the second tier of national contenders; however, they are on the list of national contenders. Vega, Calvo and Bulger led an excellent, well-rounded team. Max Cruse is the next star at Bradley, and he should start to take off as the season continues. The Billikens have the offense, but their defense will be their ultimate shortcoming. Laguna is a star who needs to begin proving he can make it at the next level. The Cowboys need their overhyped backcourt of Witcher and O'Bryant to begin producing if they are going to be taken seriously. The rest of the conference is filler.


Analytics
Reputation: 7th(47.4)
Talent: 7th(2.59)
Recruiting: 9th(2.32)


It seems everything is changing in the MVC these days. After having Bradley, one of the top programs in the nation, join a couple years back, now Drake expands the conference to eight this year. After Bradley, Oklahoma A&M and Saint Louis are strong programs as well, but the former is rising a bit while the Billikens are crashing hard. Tulsa stinks and is getting worse, despite their middling reputation as well, and Detroit Mercy is doing nothing whatsoever at all. Houston is on the rise and could well soon be the #3 team in the MVC, with Municipal University of Wichita and Drake also looking to improve. Nobody around here is standing pat, it seems the whole conference is in an upheaval, either rising or falling. A new status quo seems unlikely to be found anytime soon.

Mountan State Athletic Conference (Conference Rank: 11)
1) Utah State 2) Utah 3) Wyoming
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: G Robert Peeler, Utah
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Rudy Grimmett, Colorado A&M
Rising: Utah State
Falling: Brigham Young
Best Backcourt: Utah State
Best Frontcourt: Utah State
Best Offense: Utah State
Best Defense: Utah
Best Bench: Utah State
Best Scorer: G Benjamin Doolittle, Utah State
Best Passer: G Robert Peeler, Utah
Best Rebounder: F Benjamin Whetstone, Denver
Best Defender: C Edmundo Price, Brigham Young
Best Sixth Man: F Demarcus Michaud, Utah State
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Francis Upshaw, Utah State
NCAA Teams: Utah State
NIT Teams: Utah
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Robert Peeler, Utah (Sr)
G: Francis Upshaw, Utah State (Sr*)
F: Steven Salcedo, Utah State (Sr*)
F: Brian Warren, Wyoming (Jr*)
C: Joshua Bernal, Colorado A&M (Jr)
Synopsis: The Aggies have control of a conference currently going through a rough stretch. The Mountain State should be better than this, honestly. BYU is a team filled with pride and prestige; they are capable of much more than their current output. The Utes are the same; they have wasted Robert Peeler's considerable talent, and the draw he could have had as a player. Now, instead of getting top-notch talent, the Utes will wonder what could have been. The Aggies are the power of the conference now. With Upshaw, Doolittle, and the depth of their frontcourt, they are not as good as the teams of the past in the MSAC. But they should represent the conference well enough.


Analytics
Reputation: 10th(39.5)
Talent: 18th(1.64)
Recruiting: 18th(1.82)


The MSAC gives the Independents a run for their money as the most overrated. The common consensus is that there are four quality programs here: Utah, Utah State, BYU, and Wyoming. The consensus is wrong. There is exactly one, and it's Utah State. The other three are shells, shadows of what they should be. Things are so bad that even the cellar is over-rated here: Denver, New Mexico, and Montana are among the least talented teams in the nation, belying a vague veneer of competence. Colorado A&M actually managed to snag a decent player this year, and they've won more games each of the past three years than the year before. They have yet to post a winning record and are top-heavy with juniors and seniors though, so we are far from convinced. Utah State's Weston Kingsley, a defensive genius with no particular weakness as a coach, looks positioned to rule this league by default. But that won't be enough: the MSAC is a sinking ship, seemingly destined to fall into the abyss of the nation's also-rans bit by bit each year.


Ohio Valley Conference (Conference Rank: 13)
1) Western Kentucky 2) Murray State 3) Middle Tennessee State
Sleeper: Morehead State
Preseason Player of the Year: C Nickolas Parker, Tennessee Tech
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Kris Ladner, Eastern Kentucky
Rising: Western Kentucky
Falling: Murray State
Best Backcourt: Western Kentucky
Best Frontcourt: Tennessee Tech
Best Offense: Murray State
Best Defense: Tennessee Tech
Best Bench: Murray State
Best Scorer: Sandy Raymond, Eastern Kentucky
Best Passer: G Ben Guidry, Murray State
Best Rebounder: C Joe Lopez, Murray State
Best Defender: C Jerrell Moore, Western Kentucky
Best Sixth Man: G Boris Jeffrey, Murray State
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: C Brian Jacob, Murray State
NCAA Teams: Western Kentucky
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Kris Ladner, Eastern Kentucky (Jr)
G: Brooks Schulman, Murray State (Jr)
F: George Houtson, Morehead State (Jr)
F: Brian Jacob, Murray State (Sr)
C: Nickolas Parker, Tennessee Tech (Jr)
Synopsis: In hindsight, this is the conference pick we will get wrong, with all certainty. We are taking the Hilltoppers as a hunch pick. The conference is so tight, any of five teams can win it (sorry, Eastern Kentucky). This is the most heated conference in the nation, and arguably, the most fun to watch. It is also nearly impossible to predict. There isn't a wealth of talent in the conference, but there is more than you'd think. There is no shortage of rivalry, though.


Analytics
Reputation: 16th(30.0)
Talent: 14th(1.91)
Recruiting: 7th(2.82)


Few people spend much time thinking about the OVC. There rarely seems a reason to. That will change if they keep bringing in players like they did this year. Several teams took a step forward, and none regressed. That's not enough to drag them out of the muck, but a couple more years like it will certainly move things in that direction. Western Kentucky, Murray STate, and Morehead State are the established powers here, but it's Tennessee Tech that looks primed to challenge WKU in the upcoming years. Morehead State has been the champion the last couple of years, but they seem to be just treading water and that's not likely to be good enough around these parts. Eastern Kentucky State brings up the rear, and despite prize JC transfer Kristofer Ladner they still have work to do to catch the others.


Pacific Coast Conference (Conference Rank: 1)
1) Washington 2) California 3) Southern California
Sleeper: UCLA
Preseason Player of the Year: G Danny Fenton, Washington
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: F/C Willie Legault, California
Rising: Oregon State
Falling: Stanford
Best Backcourt: Washington
Best Frontcourt: California
Best Offense: California
Best Defense: Washington
Best Bench: California
Best Scorer: F Arthur Brodie, Oregon State
Best Passer: G Danny Fenton, Washington
Best Rebounder: F Robert Hutton, UCLA/F JC Quiles, USC
Best Defender: F Gisbert Bittes, Washington
Best Sixth Man: F Marc Cundiff, California
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Danny Fenton, Washington
NCAA Teams: Washington, Cal, Southern Cal, UCLA
NIT Teams: Oregon State, Oregon
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Danny Fenton, Washington (Sr)
G: Tony Eyre, California (Jr)
F: Arthur Brodie, Oregon State (Jr*)
F: Gisbert Bittes, Washington (Sr*)
C: Ken Foster, Oregon (Sr*)
Synopsis: The PCC made good on our speculation two seasons ago, when we said the conference would be the deepest, most talented in the nation. They are definitely there this year. Originally, we liked Oregon State to win this conference. Now, they rank fifth or sixth to us. That's how deep things are here. In the end, Washington and Cal should be able to hold on for one more season. The kids at Southern Cal and Oregon State haven't grown up as quickly as their respective coaching staffs would like. As a result, the old guard should be able to hold...for one more year. UCLA and Oregon are interesting teams, though defensive flaws (especially in UCLA's case) should limit their ability to disrupt the PCC hierarchy.


Analytics
Reputation: 4th(59.4)
Talent: 2nd(4.03)
Recruiting: 1st(5.13)


The PCC is quickly building a tradition of excellence. They had the best composite collection of new players come in this year, and only the ACC boasts a better overall collection of players. Another year like this one and that will no longer be true either. It is not a conference without issues though. They lag behind the Big 3 leagues in the public mind, and a big reason for that is there is no clear alpha, no obvious standard-bearer. There is great depth in the PCC but a top champion to capture the imagination has not yet emerged. We see Southern California edging out Oregon State over the next few years, with UCLA and California very close behind. Washington had a fabulous haul this year and another like it would put them back in that conversation as well. Stanford seems pretty alone in the middle of the pack, and even they are still quite good but it's a tough neighborhood. Washington State is next, and then it's a ways further to Oregon and Idaho bringing up the rear. Only those last two could rightly be said to be subpar, and even at that they aren't that horribly off. Many insiders think it's only a matter of time until the critical mass here leads to the PCC becoming recognized as the nation's premier conference, but the more well-established powers in the Big 7, Big Ten, and ACC will not give up their supremacy easily.


Southeastern Conference (Conference Rank: 5)
1) Kentucky 2) Alabama 3) Mississippi State
Sleeper: Tulane
Preseason Player of the Year: F Curt Davis, Kentucky
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Nelson Gonzales, Louisiana State
Rising: Tulane
Falling: Georgia Tech
Best Backcourt: Mississippi State
Best Frontcourt: Kentucky
Best Offense: Alabama
Best Defense: Kentucky
Best Bench: Kentucky
Best Scorer: G Lenny Snell, Kentucky
Best Passer: G Douglas Lapierre, Mississippi State
Best Rebounder: F Elisha Rice, Florida
Best Defender: F James Williams, Kentucky
Best Sixth Man: G Lenny Snell, Kentucky
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Joshua Merwin, LSU
NCAA Teams: Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi State
NIT Teams: Tulane, Georgia Tech
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Douglas Lapierre, Mississippi State (Jr)
G: Ernie Clark, Tennessee (Sr)
F: Charlie Johnson, Vanderbilt (Jr)
F: Curt Davis, Kentucky (Jr)
C: Scott Moncada, Kentucky (So*)
Synopsis: Kentucky is head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. After that, it is a toss-up. We like Alabama, but it could be any one of three or four teams. We are most interested in Tulane and Georgia Tech. The former is rising, though how far depends on where their vaunted backcourt takes them. Eusebio Williams arrived on campus with much fanfare, but it can easily be argued that he has not made good on the potential. Georgia Tech has played better than anyone expected the past two years. With a depleted roster, how will the Yellow Jackets respond?


Analytics
Reputation: 5th(52.4)
Talent: 5th(3.03)
Recruiting: 5th(3.20)


The SEC is well-known for being Kentucky and then everybody else. This is still very much the case, but the Wildcats have not brought in talent appropriate to their status the last couple of seasons. Their spot atop the conference is not in jeopardy, but the status as one of the very best programs in the country could very well be.

The mass of teams below them forms probably the most competitive conference in the nation. They are not among the elite, but neither are they a middle-of-the-pack league, essentially in no-man's land with no real peers at this point. Ask us who will emerge from that pack and you'll get an atlas. Kentucky as mentioned is above it; Tennessee and Mississippi are sliding below it. The other nine, believe it or not, are all in play. It's easy to ignore Tulane but we actually have them 4th in the conference on talent, though they lack the bankroll in support of it so who knows where they end up. LSU and Alabama brought in the best talent this year, but both were underwhelming in previous years. Probably the favorite is Mississippi State, both the most prestigious by a small margin and they've consistently had solid players to work with. But the Georgia schools, Vandy, Florida, Alabama Poly -- they all will have their say. Trust us -- if you like drama, if you like a conference race where there are surprises every week and every game matters, the SEC is going to be the best game in town probably throughout the rest of the 50s.


Southern Conference (Conference Rank: 9)
1) West Virginia 2) George Washington 3) Virginia Tech
Sleeper: Davidson
Preseason Player of the Year: G John Hildebrand, West Virginia
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: F Will Gendron, George Washington
Rising: Davidson
Falling: Richmond
Best Backcourt: West Virginia
Best Frontcourt: George Washington
Best Offense: West Virginia
Best Defense: West Virginia
Best Bench: West Virginia
Best Scorer: G James Warnock, Furman
Best Passer: G John Hildebrand, West Virginia
Best Rebounder: C Billy Williams, Davidson
Best Defender: F Len Weinstein, Virginia Tech
Best Sixth Man: G Andrew Batson, George Washington
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G John Hildebrand, West Virginia
NCAA Teams: West Virginia, George Washington
NIT Teams: Virginia Tech
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: John Hildebrand, West Virginia (Sr)
G: Charlie Arroyo, George Washington (Sr*)
F: Demarcus Woods, West Virginia (Sr*)
F: Billy Williams, Davidson (Sr)
C: Len Weinstein, Virginia Tech (Sr)
Synopsis: We really wanted to take the Colonials over West Virginia. Their talent, overall, stacks up very well against the Mountaineers. But GW is not a defensive-minded team in the slightest. They will be very hard-pressed to take out the Mountaineers, especially with Hildebrand and Woods back. Hildebrand may be the best point guard in the nation (we believe he is, but leave things opened up for discussion), and Woods has gotten increasingly better every season. West Virginia and Davidson will be intriguing to watch...the Hokies, in particular, can make a run at the NCAA. The Mountaineers, however, are our pick. They've earned it, after two national semifinals and a championship appearance.


Analytics
Reputation: 12th(35.0)
Talent: 10th(2.09)
Recruiting: 12th(2.17)


The Southern Conference occupies a position somewhat above the bottom half-dozen or so conferences, but it's unclear if they will retain it. There are some schools doing a solid job at building respectability, while others are totally stinking it up. West Virginia is off course the headliner, especially after reaching the title game last year. We don't see them reaching those heights again soon, but certainly they should be a fixture in the tournament. Surprisingly, their best competition around these parts might be Davidson. David Horton's offense-focused Wildcats have been assembling a surprisingly robust collection of talent that should have them rising to clear second-place contenders. The more established programs at GW and VT have been less impressive, while Richmond, Furman, and William & Mary are looking fairly disastrous lately.


Southwestern Conference (Conference Rank: 7)
1) Arkansas 2) Southern Methodist 3) Texas Christian
Sleeper: Texas
Preseason Player of the Year: G Charlie Garay, Southern Methodist
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Will Bingham, Arkansas
Rising: TCU
Falling: Texas
Best Backcourt: SMU
Best Frontcourt: Arkansas
Best Offense: Arkansas
Best Defense: Texas Christian
Best Bench: Arkansas
Best Scorer: G Bennett Dougherty, Arkansas
Best Passer: G Charlie Garay, SMU
Best Rebounder: C Hank Kingery, SMU
Best Defender: G Bennett Dougherty, Arkansas
Best Sixth Man: G Seth Wessels, Arkansas
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Charlie Garay, SMU
NCAA Teams: Arkansas, SMU
NIT Teams: Texas Christian, Texas
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Bennett Dougherty, Arkansas (Jr*)
G: Charlie Garay, SMU (Sr)
F: Will Bingham, Arkansas (Jr)
F: Jose Pritchett, TCU (Sr)
C: Hank Kingery, SMU (So)
Synopsis: Arkansas has a crackerjack outfit, one capable of making a prolonged run in the NCAA Tournament. The Southwest has been a hidden treasure, like the Ohio Valley. Unlike the OVC, the SWC has a boatload of talent. Garay is one of the finest players in the country, as is Dougherty. Kerry Groves would be a top guard on many teams in the nation. We haven't even mentioned Don Seawright, the senior guard at TCU. He is a fantastic, wel-rounded player. There is a lot to love in the Southwest. In the end, Arkansas should earn their praise as the best little program in the nation. (They won't be so little for long.)


Analytics
Reputation: 8th(46.1)
Talent: 6th(2.70)
Recruiting: 4th(3.56)


If the events of the last year become a trend, don't sleep on the SWC. Arkansas looks primed to wrest control of the conference from SMU, who unseated them last year. We're hardly the only ones to have noticed, as they are ranked 12th in the pre-season. Texas is looking solid as well, Baylor seems to be on the rebound a bit, and Agricultural & Mechanic had a good group of five additions this past year. Rice is really the only school that doesn't seem to be going anywhere. This is a solid league, and the way the top pair are going it is likely to only get better.


West Coast Conference (Conference Rank: 10)
1) San Francisco 2) Saint Mary's 3) San Jose State
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: G Stephen Ferrari, San Francisco
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: F Ronnie Veasey, San Francisco
Rising: Santa Clara
Falling: San Jose State
Best Backcourt: San Francisco
Best Frontcourt: San Francisco
Best Offense: San Francisco
Best Defense: San Francisco
Best Bench: San Francisco
Best Scorer: G David Buckner, Loyola U
Best Passer: G Stephen Ferrari, San Francisco
Best Rebounder: C Marvin Rau, Saint Mary's
Best Defender: C Drew Olson, San Jose State
Best Sixth Man: G Warren Tandy, San Francisco
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Stephen Ferrari, San Francisco
NCAA Teams: San Francisco
NIT Teams: Saint Mary's
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Stephen Ferrari, San Francisco (Sr)
G: David Buckner, Loyola U (Jr)
F: Eric Waldron, San Jose State (Jr)
F: Ronnie Veasey, San Francisco (Fr*)
C: Vaughn Griffis, San Francisco (Jr)
Synopsis: The Dons are the kings of the West Coast Conference, and could easily fit into the Pacific Coast if they wanted to make a change (not that we're suggesting anything...). Stephen Ferrari has been an absolute delight to watch for the past three years. We know he will continue his career, rather well, we might add, at the next level. But there is a joy in watching him perform here that will be lost in the pro ranks. If you have an opportunity to see the Dons play this year, do so. You will not be limited to just Ferrari, but a host of fantastic players. We won't go out on a limb and say the Dons are national semifinal worthy, like two years ago. But if things break their way, they could be on par with Washington as the best in the west.


Analytics
Reputation: 11th(39.4)
Talent: 8th(2.39)
Recruiting: 10th(2.25)


This is San Francisco's domain, but the Dons appear to be on the decline a bit. They still have plenty of talent to be scary for a year or two, but may be regressing to the level of a merely regional power. Saint Mary's is in much rose shape, a real paper tiger. San Francisco will rule this conference for the forseeable future, as decent is the most complimentary thing that can be said of anybody else in the WCC. It's far too lofty a descriptor for Pacific, San Jose State, or newcomers Pepperdine who are still figuring things out. Santa Clara looks like the best of the rest, but there remains much work to do there. Overall, the level of play here is not great, but not terrible either.

West New York 3 Conference (Conference Rank: 17)
1) Niagara 2) St. Bonaventure 3) Canisius
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: G Curt To, Niagara
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: F Dan Judge, Niagara
Rising: n/a
Falling: n/a
Best Backcourt: Niagara
Best Frontcourt: Niagara
Best Offense: Niagara
Best Defense: Niagara
Best Bench: Niagara
Best Scorer: G Monroe Serrato, Niagara
Best Passer: G Curt To, Niagara
Best Rebounder: F Robert Lombard, Niagara
Best Defender: F Larry Lewis, St. Bonaventure
Best Sixth Man: G Matthew Ashton, Niagara
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Curt To, Niagara
NCAA Teams: Niagara
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Curt To, Niagara (Sr)
G: John Johnson, St. Bonaventure (Sr)
G: Monroe Serrato, Niagara (Sr)
F: Robert Lombard, Niagara (Sr*)
C: Grady Waters, Canisius (Jr)
Synopsis: The final chapter in this four-year run of Perez and To comes to an end, as Curtis graduates at the end of this year. It has been a very successful run for this pairing, with 43 wins in the last two years, and a NCAA win last year. That will likely not be the case this year, even with a couple of players as talented as Monroe Serrato and Robert Lombard flanking To. They should easily win the four-game playoff for a NCAA berth again (with all due respect, how does this guarantee a NCAA berth?), and should get a seven or eight-seed in the tournament field. That's about all they are good for, but it's definitely more than good enough for this small school.


Analytics
Reputation: 6th(48.0)
Talent: 12th(2.05)
Recruiting: 17th(2.00)


This trio is the picture of resting on your laurels. None of them are living up to their billing lately, most notably with Niagara with St. Bonaventure at least holding their ground to become the best here. On the whole, these schools are as overrated as the Independents, perhaps more so. It seems that most players want to play in the larger conferences, and if that continues the New York trio is in serious trouble.


Yankee Conference (Conference Rank: 14)
1) Connecticut 2) Massachusetts 3) Rhode Island
Sleeper: Vermont
Preseason Player of the Year: G Jessie Calvert, Connecticut
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Joaquin Goodwin, Maine
Rising: Vermont
Falling: New Hampshire
Best Backcourt: Connecticut
Best Frontcourt: Connecticut
Best Offense: Connecticut
Best Defense: Rhode Island
Best Bench: Connecticut
Best Scorer: G Jessie Calvert, Connecticut
Best Passer: G Jessie Calvert, Connecticut
Best Rebounder: F Henry Powell, New Hampshire
Best Defender: F John Buzzell, Vermont
Best Sixth Man: G Gary Garfield, Connecticut
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Jessie Calvert, Connecticut
NCAA Teams: Connecticut
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Jessie Calvert, Connecticut (Sr)
G: Harry Germany, Vermont (Sr)
F: Joe McInerney, Connecticut (Jr*)
F: Brien Taylor, Connecticut (Sr)
C: Josiah Douglas, Maine (Jr)
Synopsis: With the rest of the conference searching for answers, the Huskies march on, and the distance between them and the rest of the conference gets a little wider. Calvert, who burst onto the scene with a surprise All-American nod two years ago, is now a senior. He has a solid #2 in McInerney, and a very capable backcourt to rule the Yankee roost. UMass is a far cry from what they could be, and the rest of the conference is hoping for an off-night by the Huskies. They can get them...UConn has not gone through any season without at least two in-conference losses. New England travel can wear on teams in the winter. Regardless, the Huskies should see their way to another first-round loss in the NCAA Tournament.


Analytics
Reputation: 17th(29.2)
Talent: 17th(1.81)
Recruiting: 11th(2.25)


The Yankee Conference is another with one dominant team in Connecticut and everyone else chasing. In this case the chasers are abysmal without exception, and UConn is dominant only by comparison. Vermont and Rhode Island seem the best chances for a legitimate challenger riht now, with New Hampshire and UMass definitely at the bottom of the pile. The Huskies themselves are looking to build a future in which their influence extends further on a regional scale, bringing in a full half-dozen bodies this offseason. On the whole the Yankee is getting better, but it would be hard not to given it's present status as one of the nation's laughingstocks.




Independents (Conference Rank: -)
1) Duquesne 2) Dayton 3) La Salle
Sleeper: Seattle, Villanova
Preseason Player of the Year: G Chauncey Hinkley, Duquesne
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: F Arden Summer, Villanova
Rising: Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma City
Falling: Louisville, Holy Cross, Temple
Best Backcourt: Duquesne, Notre Dame, Seattle
Best Frontcourt: Seattle, Dayton, La Salle
Best Offense: Notre Dame, Duquesne, Villanova
Best Defense: Seattle, Dayton, La Salle
Best Bench: Duquesne, Cincinnati, Villanova
Best Scorer: G Trent Rueda, Texas Tech; G Gregory Wyman, Seattle; G William Amador, DePaul
Best Passer: G Andrew Cosme, St. Joseph's; G Hubert Cox, Temple
Best Rebounder: C Brady Poe, Siena; C Denver Logan, Dayton
Best Defender: G Chauncey Hinkley, Duquesne; F Joe Gard, Miami; F David Harder, Seattle
Best Sixth Man: G Elvis Cox, Notre Dame; F Brent Dampier, Duquesne
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Chauncey Hinkley, Duquesne
NCAA Teams: Duquesne, Dayton, La Salle, Seattle, Villanova, Notre Dame,
NIT Teams: Temple, Holy Cross, Cincinnati, Oklahoma City, Marquette, St. Joseph's
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Chauncey Hinkley, Duquesne (Sr)
G: Guy Jeter, Notre Dame (Sr)
F: Charles Tillery, Holy Cross (Jr*)
F: Jesus Jones, Seattle (Jr)
C: Denver Logan, Dayton (Sr)
Synopsis: A few teams, notably Seattle, Villanova, and Marquette, are attempting to disrupt the old guard of Duquesne, Dayton, and the like. Like with other conferences, this probably won't give way...this year. But Villanova is getting better, Marquette is young, Seattle is a rising giant in the West, and Notre Dame is consistently hawking underrated talent. While Duquesne is the king of the Indies, with Dayton a close second, there is a very close line between the top, and the second tier. By this time next year, it is likely that the line of the elite will grow to include these teams. For now, Seattle appears to be extremely dangerous. Watch them...they are hidden by the giants of Washington, San Francisco, and the rest...but they should not be overlooked for too long.


Analytics
Reputation: 9th(45.2)
Talent: 9th(2.34)
Recruiting: 15th(2.13)


Making generalized statements about the Independents as a whole is a risky thing: it's too large and diverse a group of schools for any such assessment to be entirely accurate. Fully a quarter of the nation's programs are to be found here. On balance though it is unquestionably the most overrated collection of teams at the present time. Many of those regarded as established powers are crashing, while few if any of the less-regarded teams are on the rise to any significant degree. Boston College, Cincinatti, Syracuse, Louisville, and Texas Tech are just a few of the more extreme examples of programs that are in very serious danger of a sharp decline. The Independents may have a very respectable reputation on the whole right now, but we don't see that lasting very long if current trends persist.

One notable exception is Duquesne, who in our evaluation is 8th both in overall talent level and this year's incoming recruits. Saint Joseph's, Temple, Villanova, Seattle, and Notre Dame are probably those with the best future behind them, but among the Independents Duquesne is in a class by themselves right now. Unfortunately, when it comes to offensive execution coach Ronald Polson is, well ... lacking is the nice way to say it. They should do ok defensively, but they need a more complete leader to consistently compete with the best in the nation. Still, last year's NIT visit should be an outlier, and we'd expect to see them winning an NCAA game or even two most seasons.


Our NCAA Picks: As always, we project the NCAA Tournament. We are making our selections based off of this model. Naturally, things change over the course of the season. However, this is our first actual projection of the season, along with our pick for the 1956-57 champion. If memory serves, we are one-for-three thus far.



Preseason Pick (Actual winner in parenthesis)
1953: Kansas over Bradley (Kansas over Duquesne)
1954: Kansas State over Indiana (Bradley over Kansas State)
1955: Kansas State over Indiana (Kansas over West Virginia)


Have we learned our lesson? Well, for starters, we put Kansas State and Indiana in the same region. So...maybe.



1 NC State Kentucky 1
8 Niagara W. Kentucky 8

5 Villanova Notre Dame 5
4 Seattle West Virginia 4
East South
3 Duke Arkansas 3
6 Saint Louis Alabama 6

7 St. John's Columbia 7
2 Duquesne North Carolina 2

1 Kansas State Kansas 1
8 Toledo Arizona 8

5 Dayton Southern Cal 5
4 California San Francisco 4
Midwest West
3 Bradley Iowa 3
6 La Salle SMU 6

7 Utah State Connecticut 7
2 Indiana Washington 2



East
Seattle over NC State; Duquesne over Duke
Seattle over Duquesne


South
Kentucky over West Virginia; Arkansas over North Carolina
Kentucky over Arkansas


Midwest
Kansas State over Dayton; Bradley over Indiana
Kansas State over Bradley


West
Kansas over Southern Cal; Washington over SMU
Kansas over SMU


National Semifinal
Kansas State over Seattle
Kentucky over Kansas


National Championship: Kansas State over Kentucky
The third time's the charm.

I have a man crush as well :)

Man. This is such a great league. I need to remember to make time to do more than export every other week. :(

The National Basketball Report
November 23, 1956


Top Twenty


1. Kentucky (3-0, LW 4)
2. North Carolina (3-0, 6)
3. Seattle (5-0, 15)
4. Washington (5-0, 8)
5. North Carolina St (3-1, 2)
6. Duquesne (4-1, 5)
7. Kansas State (1-1, 1)
8. Indiana (3-1, 7)
9. Bradley (1-1, 9)
10. Dayton (2-0, 17)
11. Kansas (1-2, 3)
12. California (0-0, 12)
13. Iowa (0-0, 13)
14. Duke (1-1, 10)
15. Arkansas (3-1, 11)
16. West Virginia (1-1, 14)
17. San Francisco (3-1, 18)
18. Holy Cross (1-0, NR)
19. Oregon (3-0, NR)
20. Colorado (2-0, NR)
Dropped Out: Southern Cal (16), Villanova (19), Notre Dame



1 NC State Kentucky 1
8 Connecticut W. Kentucky 8

5 Holy Cross Duke 5
4 West Virginia Arkansas 4
East South
3 Duquesne Dayton 3
6 St. Joseph Georgia Tech 6

7 Niagara St. John 7
2 Indiana North Carolina 2

1 Kansas State Washington 1
8 Toledo Arizona State 8

5 California La Salle 5
4 Iowa San Francisco 4
Midwest West
3 Bradley Seattle 3
6 Colorado Oregon 6

7 Utah State Columbia 7
2 Seattle Kansas 2



AP Poll (AP stands for Absolutely Preposterous)


Pity the poor Associated Press voting machine. They have an unenviable task.


The poll, which is in mid-flux (ours is being created mid-week, rather than on a Monday), may look like a traffic jam with all lanes shut down. Where in the world do they go with this? The entire landscape has cannibalised itself. Let's try to sort out our own ranking:


Kentucky went through Kansas and Kansas State, and didn't have the let down against Bowling Green State. They are worthy of the top ranking. Meanwhile, Kansas getting knocked out of the AP poll is the biggest overreaction possible, in our view. More on that to come shortly.


North Carolina is 3-0, and while they didn't play anybody, they didn't lose and were already ranked high to begin the season. Fine.


Seattle is 5-0, beating Duquesne in the process. They didn't beat anyone of conseqeunce, but they held opponents to 43.8 points per game. Duquesne scored just 36. Holy cow.


Washington is also 5-0, beating Michigan and ranked San Francisco handedly in the process. In fact, they are winning by 18.4 points per game.


Those four are set where they are, with hard-earned places among the poll.


And then...


North Carolina State, currently atop the AP poll, will not be next week. They lost to Bradley, 82-59, at home, in a game where they were never, ever competitive. Bradley led by twenty at the break, controlled the rebounds, and went 20-21 at the stripe.


Duquesne went 4-1, beat Villanova and crushed Indiana, before being flat against Seattle. The following win against Columbia (1-3) means very little right now. By the way, Indiana comes calling on December 1st in a scheduled game (the first go-round was in the semifinals of the Chuck Taylor All-Star Classic). That game will come with much intrigue.


Kansas State fell to Kentucky, but beat West Virginia, in the Tournament of Champions. That shouldn't totally warrant such a fall, but Duquesne had an impressive start, and the win over West Virginia may not be as impressive as one would think.


Indiana went 3-1, but were run off the floor by the Dukes. Bradley blew out NC State, but lost to San Francisco, who lost to Washington by thirteen. Dayton won both of their games, proving their rank. Kansas fell to Kentucky and West Virginia, which necessitated a fall...the way things shook out, a fall is more than justified. But...out of the poll?


(Patience...)


Cal and Iowa haven't played yet, and therefore, stayed put. Duke fell to Ohio State, which is somehow ranked in the AP poll. We do not feel the Buckeyes, despite a good win here, are worthy of that just yet. More on that shortly. Arkansas fell to Georgia Tech, but rebounded well heading into their matchup against Kansas State in Manhattan. West Virginia split the Tournament of Champions, falling two spots.


San Fran lost to Washington, but played well otherwise, and moved up a spot. Holy Cross, Oregon and Colorado all earned their way into the poll, while Southern Cal, Villanova and Notre Dame earned their way out.


This is a tangled web, as teams are realizing that having a good schedule enhances their reputation in the eyes of the Tournament Selection Committee. In this case, though, it may make them go blind, especially when many marquee games are on the upcoming schedule. Here is a quick glimpse:


11.23.56
Seattle at California
Indiana at Toledo (we really cannot wait for that)


11.24.56
Arkansas at Kansas State


11.25.56
Saint Joe at San Francisco


11.26.56
Kentucky at Louisville


11.27.56
West Virginia at Ohio State
Illinois at NC State
Michigan at Maryland
Southern Cal at Arizona State


11.29.56
Notre Dame at George Washington
Kentucky at Clemson


12.1.56
Indiana at Duquesne
Seattle at Southern Cal
NC State at Kansas


12.2.56
Duquesne at Stanford


12.3.56
Georgia Tech at San Francisco
Notre Dame at Penn State
Michigan at Maryland


12.4.56
Duquesne at Temple
Holy Cross at Duke


That is only the next week and a half (covering our publishing cycle). The nation's elite are choosing to rise to a challenge, rather than become scheduling seperatists. The fans win, while the committee gets more information (and a much bigger web to try and sift through). We believe this is here to stay, too. Schools obviously notice the atmosphere, the interest, and the bottom line.


Reader Q: What is the deal with Kansas not being ranked?


You will find Kansas ranked 11th in our poll. They are not ranked at all in the Associated Press Top 25, which is absolutely ludicrous. You're going to take a team that goes 0-2 in the Tournament of Champions, which is a replay of last year's National Semifinals, one ranked in the top five to begin the year, one that is also DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPION, and bounce them after one week?


Did their team defect to Oklahoma? Were they swept away in some Dust Bowl mishap we were unaware of? Did they all flunk their courses? (Of course not! Academics, ha!).


With all due respect to those who vote for the AP...did someone slip you a mickey? You think this team, trying to replace three starters and find its identity, but still with more talent than anyone not in their own state, to fall completely out of your ranking, held by a tribunal that suddenly lacks common sense, let alone credibility? Is this what you wish to portray, that a team who lost to the #3 team in the land (our current #1) and the #25 team (who also lost to the #3 team, and you felt the need to drop them twelve spots), should fall completely out of the poll? With all due respect to the starts of Oklahoma A&M and Colorado, you're mad to believe that Kansas should receive less votes than either of those teams, let alone a Syracuse team that overcome the insurmountable odds in beating Pacific and New Mexico.


You're as bad as the NCAA putting Indiana and Kansas State into the same region two years in a row.


Screw your heads on right, or reliquinsh your power to someone who will use it with a wiser demeanor.


We have an even better suggestion, one for the reader:


Ignore their poll. Ours doesn't overreact.


Preseason Tournament Update


Chuck Taylor: Seattle ran the gauntlet, beating Idaho, Virginia, Denver, and Duquesne in the final. The Dukes, even in the loss, were the talk of the tournament for their 70-48 thrashing of Indiana. The Hoosiers are in transition, and are having difficulty finding someone who can take the lead on the scoring. Right now, Octavio Broussard is leading the team with 15.8 ppg. He has a career average of just five points a game. In the final, Seattle hed Duquesne to 15-59 from the field.


Heart of Texas: Oregon ripped through Brown, Tulane, and Alabama Poly to win the Heart of Texas and the giant horseshoe trophy. Tulane went 2-1 in the tournament, but had an overall good showing. They beat Brown and Arizona in the tournament. Losing to Oregon, who is a NCAA-caliber team, is nothing to get upset at.


King of the Bluegrass: Everyone expected a Duke-Louisville final, and were surprised to see the Buckeyes of Ohio State upend Duke, 67-64. Louisville was caught off-guard, and were crushed by the Buckeyes, 81-51, in the final. The Cardinals have fallen from grace over the past couple of seasons, and appears to be far, far away from the power we saw three years ago. Ohio State, meanwhile, may be arriving earlier than expected. We said in the national preview that the Buckeyes were a sleeping giant.


This begs the question: Have they woken up already? Let's look at their wins:


vs Duke, 67-64: Solid win, but also in a season opener in which neither team knows truly what to expect. More upsets happen on opening night than any other. Ohio State got incredibly hot in the second half, and Duke turned the ball over repeatedly. The Blue Devils led 35-20 at the half...remember that.


vs Louisville, 81-51: Do not think the Cardinals are what they used to be. They're not. They also shot horribly (31%) and committed 31 fouls, while also turning Ohio State over only half as much as they did (eight for OSU, sixteen for Louisville). It was only a twelve-point lead at the half (46-34), before Louisville went dreadfully cold and fouled like crazy in the second half. Also, Timothy Schutz shot 2-12, and Shaun Wilmoth 1-8. This was a decided victory, but wed pin this more on Louisville's struggling to find an identity and Ohio State riding the Duke win for confidence.


at Pacific, 58-44: You have to play who is in front of you, but make no mistake...Pacific is bad. But they still outshot the Buckeyes, percentage-wise (46%-44%). The issue was turnovers: Pacific had twenty, to just eight for the Buckeyes.


at Pepperdine, 69-51: Pepperdine, never known for their scoring, shot 31% from the field. Ohio State is good at making teams feel uncomfortable, sure. But Pacific and Pepperdine? They are not a barometer of how good Ohio State is.


The Buckeyes were outrebounded in three of their four games. We expect a better barometer of Ohio State's ceiling to be found when West Virginia comes calling on the 27th. After that, there isn't a solid loss to be found on the Buckeyes schedule until Big Ten play. The AD in Columbus scheduled this perfectly...cupcakes all along the way, get some confidence, and then hope for the best in the Big Ten.


Of course, that makes for a double-edged sword. The Buckeyes cannot afford any losses, outside of one against the Mountaineers, on the out-of-conference slate. And they have to beat everyone but Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan State in-conference. They can split with Michigan and Illinois...but if they are NCAA-worthy, a top-four finish is a must.


In short: We don't think the Buckeyes have arrived. But they forced our hand with analysis of their start. So, they've achieved that much...however much our analysis is worth.


MSG Holiday Festival: The Thanksgiving tradition saw North Carolina rip through the field, beating upset-minded Citadel, 73-47, in the championship. The Citadel beat Vanderbilt (67-53) and PCC heavyweight Oregon State (63-60) to get there. UNC glided through Tulsa (81-52) and outlasted Rutgers (72-68) to arrive at the title tilt. Oregon State recovered from the Citadel defeat to upend Rutgers in the third-place game.


Naismith Invitational: This was, essentially, a Big 5 mini-tournament. Three Philadelphia teams--St. Joe, Penn, and Temple--suited up, along with Wichita Municipal. The semifinal saw St. Joe whip Wichita, 88-74, while Penn surprised Temple, 86-79. St. Joe took that into mind, and promptly dispatched the Ivy Grouper, 76-53, in the final. Temple crushed Wichita, 78-65. In the end, it was a lackluster tournament.


Preseason NIT: The tournament had several top-flight outfits, including Bradley San Francisco, Southern Cal, Notre Dame, Southern Methodist, and Mississippi State. In the end, it was PCC kingpin, Washington, that settled matters against the unlikeliest of challengers. Day 1 saw Washington prevent Toledo from another monumental upset, while Miss State crushed Temple. Southern Methodist surprised Notre Dame, 76-62, while South Carolina beat Utah. The Dons beat Bradley, 71-65, in the game of the day. Southern Cal took out St. Francis-NY, 61-50. New Hampshire upended Colgate, while Michigan outlasted VMI.


Day 2 saw Washington roll past Michigan, while San Francisco did the same to South Carolina. New Hampshire surprised Miss State, 57-53, while Southern Methodist shocked Southern Cal, 94-71. In the semis, Washington upended San Fran, 75-62, while New Hampshire shocked everyone by taking out SMU, 58-55.


In the final, Washington cruised to an 80-47 victory.


Tournament of Champions: Kentucky emerged victorious in this go-round of last year's national semifinal participants. They beat Kansas, 80-77, and Kansas State, 71-57. West Virginia fell to Kansas State, 78-69, but upended Kansas, 75-65, in the third-place game. Kentucky looked sluggish against Kansas, giving away an eleven-point halftime lead and a fourteen-point second-half lead, before preserving the victory at the end.


What was most surprising about Kentucky's wins was Curt Davis' disappearing act during them. He scored just four points and grabbed six rebounds in only thirteen minutes during Kansas, suffering an injury late in the first half. He was replaced by top pro prospect Carson White (if only every team could have that luxury), and did not return. White started the Kansas State game, though Davis ended up playing 28 minutes. He got just eight points and ten rebounds in that (with five blocks, of course). Kentucky will need Davis, its best player, for these games. White is a solid player, of course, but Davis is the heart and soul of the Wildcats.


Warner Bros. Classic: North Carolina State rolled through BYU, Stanford, and Idaho State, to take the title. They looked every bit the champion many think they can be (until they got blasted by Bradley earlier this week, of course). Arkansas fell to Georgia Tech in the first game, but beat Yale and BYU to recover. Many, including us, were hoping for a Wolfpack-Razorback matchup. Alas, it was not to be.


Reader Q: Which one of the preseason tournament champions will go the furthest towards a championship? This excludes the Tournament of Champions.


Here is the list, from best chance, to worst, at an NCAA title, along with their ceiling:


1. NC State: With all due respect to Washington, we still believe NC State will have the best chance of a NCAA championship. We don't believe in the Husky frontcourt all that much, and there is too much muck to go through out west. NC State has UNC and Duke to get through, and a host of independent powers, sure...but they have a straight track to the top seed in the East. That would bring with it, most likely, the weakest second-seed. Right now, if Washington got the #1 in the West, Kansas would draw the #2. Or Seattle. San Francisco would draw the third seed. Want to go through that region? Regardless, the Wolfpack has the talent, and enough experience, to make the deepest run.


2. Washington: The Huskies do look pretty good so far, don't they? Even though we find their path tougher than most, they would still be the top seed in the West right now...that's worth a lot more than the #2 seed.


3. North Carolina: Loaded with talent, and likely to stay close to home in the South. Would mean they'd go through Kentucky, okay. And if they were to win the ACC, they'd likely take the top seed in the East. Everything we said about NC State applies to the Tar Heels.


4. Seattle: We love their defense, but their offense...they will run into teams that will challenge them to score. The question here is...can they? And is Jesus Jones ready to lead? Gregory Wyman can only do so much.


5. St. Joseph: This is where things bog down. We think St. Joseph has a better chance than the rest to simply make the NCAA, which makes them a better bet to win it than either Oregon or Ohio State. But we don't particularly love what St. Joe's has done so far. They've played Wichita Municipal, Penn, and Cornell. That isn't exactly the Trifecta of Doom.


6. Oregon: They have a lot of talent. But can they win with a freshman point guard (Jonathan Azure) in the PCC? They are not the deepest of teams, and they are one more built for the future. Only 7'0 center Ken Foster is a senior that contributes. They start three juniors and a freshman, and their entire rotation is underclassmen. We really like them next year (assuming they find more height that can contribute). But this year, in the toughest conference in the country? No thank you.


7. Ohio State: Hopefully this puts our feelings on Ohio State's start in the clearest of images.


Recruiting Buzz


Much of the talk around the recruiting circuit was about San Francisco's early haul, receiving pledges from the #3 recruit nationally, guard Steven Williams, as well as power forward Clayton Browder, who is ranked eleventh.


Williams, a 6'1, 190-pound guard from Mt. Eden High School, averaged 28.4 points and 3.8 rebounds last season. He is a deadly scorer from all over the floor. There are whispers that his defense leaves something to be desired, and that he is best when he is running the offense. San Francisco won't have that problem, with Stephen Ferrari leaving after this season.


The Dons beat out Southern Cal for Williams' services.


More remarkable, perhaps, is their pickup of Browder. The 6'9, 250-pounder from San Diego averaged 13.1 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.3 steals last year for Mira Mesa High. He should fit in with Vaughn Griffis and Ronnie Veasey next year, forming one of the top frontcourts in the nation.


The Dons beat out Kansas, Kansas State, North Carolina and California for his services. This is surprising, to say the least. You can say that the Powers of Oz were focused on others, but rumor has it both offered him. And he chose the Bay.


Combine that with San Francisco's start, and it's entirely possible nobody in the country, outside of Washington and Seattle, had a more productive past couple of weeks than the Dons.


Meanwhile, there was big news that the #1 overall recruit, forward Joe Keck of Georgia, is not eligible to participate with the NCAA next season. He will go to the junior college circuit, and will hopefully be eligible in two seasons. This is an astonishing blow for both Iowa and Southern Cal, each of whom he was heavily considering.


The #2 overall recruit, 6'10 Lowell Lynch out of Virginia, is also ineligible. Indiana had offered him, and he was considering Purdue and Southern Cal on his short list.


It needs to be said that Southern Cal is in on many of these players, and seems to have their reaches all over the West Coast.


The MAC's Awful, No Good, Very Bad So-Far Season


The Mid-American Conference wants a win.


So far, the rest of the nation refuses to oblige.


The MAC is a rather unceremonious 0-8, with two teams abstaining from playing, on grounds that whatever the rest of the MAC has, it may be contagious.


Toledo (0-1): Lost to Washington, 76-53. Fine.
First possible win: Hmmm.
11.23: vs Indiana: No
11.26: vs Marquette. Maybe.
12.04: at Kansas. Fat chance.
12.08: at Texas. Possible, but unlikely.
12.10: at Syracuse. Potentially disappointing.
12.13: at NC State. Keep moving.
12.17: at Xavier. Yes, probably.
12:20: vs Detroit Mercy. This one, for sure.


So, Toledo could start the year 0-8.


Ohio (0-2): Fell at Saint Mary's, 71-49, and at Wisconsin, 58-50.
Possible 1st win: Saturday vs VMI (0-1) at home.


Bowling Green State (0-2): Lost against Richmond, 83-73, and at Kentucky, 83-53.
First possible win: Hold on...
12.1: at Bradley. Next.
12.10: at Rutgers. Doubtful, but maybe.
12.15: vs West Virginia. Would be a whopper of an upset...
12.19: at Michigan State. We don't think so.
12.21: vs Colorado. There is potential here, but we find it unlikely.
12.26: at Wake Forest: No.
12.29: at Loyola-IL. This is most likely.


BG could start the year at 0-8, just like Toledo.


Kent State (0-1): Lost to Southern Cal, 69-57.
First possible win: at Canisius, on 11.25. If not then, then definitely either at VMI (12.07) or at home vs Vermont (12.15).


Marshall (0-0) First game is at Loyola-Illinois on 11.25. They should win that. If not then, then 11.27 at Saint Francis.


Miami-Ohio: Also abstained from performing. They play Harvard today. They should win that. If not then, then Wichita Municipal on 11.25.


Western Michigan (0-2): Lost at Michigan (83-62) and at Michigan State (70-58).
First possible win: 11.27 vs Idaho. After that, it could be a long time.
12.03: vs Wisconsin.
12.06: vs Saint Louis
12.11: vs Murray State. This one has win potential all over it.
12.14: at Villanova. This one does not.
12.17: at Ohio State. Neither does this.
12.20: at Marquette. We doubt this.
12.27: vs Tennessee Tech. Nickolas Parker...can anyone stop him?
1.2.57: at Drake. High possibility here.
1.8.57: at Loyola-Illinois. Probably.


How do you feel if you're Loyola-Illinois? The school appears to be the gateway to winning in the MAC.


Question to our readers: Who do you think will be the last time to get a win this season? Please write correspondence to the address below:

National Basketball Report
315 W. 63rd Street
New York, NY 10023
Care of: [email protected]

I'm still surprised we don't have more guys wanting to join this. The amount of writing alone in the preseason is more than other leagues (not just FBB OR FBCB leagues) have in total. Really just is a fun league to be apart of

muns, I just read your most recent write-up. Good stuff! One of these days when I get time I'll read the whole thing. With college basketball starting, I can't wait to get back to my teams in this, as well as get going on my FBCB Interactive Player Dynasty and FBCB Interactive Coaches Dynasty again. I believe you signed up for a coach in the Coaches Dynasty, can't remember. Keep up the good work, NCAA53 is a blast and I can't wait to get back in town and get back to my teams.

Yes, UNC/NC State needs to be the top rivalry for the next 40+ seasons :D

I need to get back into this league
I lost track when we were relocating but now that we are settled in

Yes come on back Balldog. We can use another vet around the place. Was also hoping you could pick up another team in a power conf to go along with Detroit Mercy :)

I cant take credit for those write ups. Those are the guys writing for the NBR. I contribute from time to time, but none of that stuff is mine. They are doing a hell of a job, and why this league is as fun as it is

I hope to poke through with a 3rd in that rivalry in a good 4 seasons

USC starts the year with a victory, however the injury bug bit us square in the ass again.

We need to hire a new trainer, do some sort of praying before games, some smoke rituals... something for goodness gracious.

Our most prized recruit in USC history Freshman SG- Edmond Nelson went down 11 mins into the first game with a scratched eye. We lose him for the next 2 weeks, which really irks me as I need to figure out how good or bad this teams is

In his 11 mins his stats were 3-4 for 6 points, a rebound an assist and a turnover. Not a bad first game before the injury.

We then go on to lose against a tough Southern Methodist team 94-71. Just an ugly ugly game as we couldn't shoot or guard for shit.

We win the next 2 games, and then lose to another decent team in Arizona State. We had 2 starters foul out in this one couldn't really compete as our depth couldn't keep us afloat here.

Next game, Nelson comes back and its against Top 25 Seattle who was ranked 20th and we beat them 56-48. If Freddie Nation could not turn the ball over 12 times we would have blown them the hell out, but hey a win is a win am I right, especially a top 25 win.

So we sit at 4-2 at the moment looking ok. Still some major things to figure out, and I still cant yet until we get healthy.

SG- Vincent Lincoln went down in the Seattle game with a Fractured Hip so we will miss him for a few weeks. That is important because I was going to insert him into the starting lineup as do not like the way Allen Storer is playing.

But 4-2 is an ok start for a team that has scheduled tough competition this year.

Just wish the injuries will go away sooner rather than later

A strong Big 4 would be awesome as well :D

How things look so far this year

I forgot to do a conf preview. Too late to do one now, however, I will say that I think Washington takes home the PCC crown this year. I think Oregon State and Oregon battle for number 2 in the North, and Oregon might play spoiler this year. They have one hell of an athletic team and could beat anybody on a good day.

In the South, I do think this is the year for the Trojans. Cal is just so weak in the post, it will be a shame on my part if they are able to keep up. They have better guards than we do, but the difference in the post is greater than the guard play.

On that note, if UCLA's post have a couple of good games I think they have a shot at beating CAL as well.

We are getting balanced scoring this year, and I like the way we have been able to rebound the ball. Quiles has been a monster on the board this year, but if Allen Storer doesn't start to play better basketball we aren't going to do much this year.


Honestly, he is a guy I hate in game. There isn't much to do with him. He is average at best scoring, cant really play D the way that you would like. Is athletic and should be able to hold onto the ball. But that's about all the positives I can say. He is at a -2 on the year as our starting 2.... Just sad if you ask me.

I just don't know what his role is on this team, nor do I know what his role going forward will be. Nelson comes back as a starter this game, and I have bumped Hernando Hernnandez back into the starting SF spot, so Storer will be the 6th man for a bit or until we get Nincent Lincoln healthy

I was going to take some time to write more last night, however, the GF has grades due, and her computer wouldn't connect to my WIFI. Needless to say I lost the battle for the good computer .

USC went on a 3 game winning streak with Nelson back in the lineup. We beat Georgetown, St. Mary's (who has historically been a problem for us) and then Northwestern. We barely beat Northwestern by 2. Going 10-24 from the free throw line, had something to do with why the game was so darn close but a win is a win though and we will take it.

Going into tonights sim we are 7-2 and off to our best start ever at USC.

Vincent Lincoln comes back after fracturing his hip and is currently listed at 92% health wise. We have 4 days until our next game, so he should be good to go. I have moved him up the depth chart to be our 6th man and will replace Allen Storer. Storer over the past 3 games was ok. He played a great game against G-town, played a terrible game against St. Mary's, and then an ok game against Northwestern.

I need more from him, and Lincoln gets a shot to take his spot away from him. Really hoping he does the job, and I can put to bed our issues with playing time and who plays where.

We look ok so far

Team Prestige: 57

Season Record: 7-2
Record Vs 1-50: 3-1
Record Vs 51-100: 3-1
Record Vs 100-200: 1-0
Record Vs 200+: 0-0
Current RPI Rank: 15

Our RPI at 15 has me pretty darn excited about where I want to be headed. Just need to keep our injuries at bay

PF J.C. Quiles leads the Nation in rebounding at 13.0 a game and

PG- Freddie Nation leads the Nation in Assists with 9.3 a game.

We have some talented guys, just need everybody to show up and playing like they can in order for us to have a shot at the PCC and the national tourney.

Recruiting wise we only have 1 offer out because we only had 1 to give out.

We started on the number 1 recruit in the nation, and due to his grade issues, we had to drop off him.

We do lead on 5 star All-American 6'3 SG Jospeh Thomasson. He is ranked 20th and can light up the scoreboard, but we expect him to be a turnover machine.

However, another top 25 recruit (if he signs) on the roster would be welcomed, as Washington seems to just be killing it on the recruiting trail once again this year.


After Washington, CAL, Stanford, and Oregon also seem to be doing really really well on the recruiting front. The PCC doesn't get any easier, although with the realignment next year, the schedule will, as the loss of Oregon State sucks.

I also want to point out that little ole Idaho is 6-1 on the year. What a nice job they have been doing recruiting wise. While they wont have the talent to compete within the PCC, it wouldn't surprise me if they snag a win or 2 and disrupt some teams shot. 5'11 SG-Charles Witten is no joke on that roster averaging 19.3 points per game. The little firecracker is the early front runner to win Freshman of the year in the PCC

Cal is really the team to worry about in recruiting. They've already got the post I really wanted in #7 overall Milford Foster and another solid post in #28 overall Raymond Davis. I'm less sold on their third commit - #45 overall Gaston Tyler - but he could be one of those guys with "meh" stats and great ratings.

I like the guard I got, but I'm counting on him being better than my scouting report because that says he's more "OK" than "great". And if I don't get Gonzales I'll be scrambling a bit to fill out this class.

I'm hoping for a few more high-level prospects out of the PNW next season - after having 3 in-state guys in the top-100 for the 1955 class, the 1956 class was almost barren. I think the highest-rated Washington prospect was a 2-star.

What's the crying about a recruiting class. Oregon State has had theirs locked up since April! (still can't believe I forgot).

Oregon State seems like a fraud built on defense right now. I still haven't figured out what offense to run with them. 1st in FT% and blocks in the conference has me thinking we will finally scare someone in conference play this year. 7th in scoring and 9th in FG% makes me think we finish a disappointing .500 in conference play.

Ill disagree, and that's only because I think I have a decent scout, and from memory they wouldn't have been guys I would have gone after. Ill double check that when I get home though.

You on the other hand...... I like your guys :)

That was just due to schooly balance correct?

USC goes 2-0 that sim beating BYU and San Jose State. Neither are world beaters, but aren't exactly cup cakes either.

Our RPI sits at 19th, we are ranked 20th in the polls, and our record sits at 9-2.

More importantly at the moment, we are 6-0 vs top 50 schools. Hopefully that number stays high.

We get Idaho State, and Niagara next and neither are guaranteed wins. Idaho State has beaten Georgia Tech, Arizona State, and UCLA. They also lost to Cal by 7 points on the road. They make me nervous.

Niagara doesn't have the wins yet, but are a real scrappy team coming off an NIT berth last year. They are 4-7 on the year but their RPI is 47th.

After that game we start conf play with UCLA and Washington. Honestly, somehow I seem to get screwed each year by who we start off with. Both games are away, and coming back with an 0-2 record to start conf play would be terrible for us. It could be a possibility though with UCLA being ranked 15th and Washington ranked 3rd.

On the bright side, we did get healthy and we have a full squad again.

The lineup change with Vincent Lincoln worked nicely, and I am going to stay with that. Just now need to figure out to distribute the mins better.

Lincoln in those 2 games went for 18 points on 7-13 shooting, with 5 boards, 1 steals, 2 blocks, and 2 assists. I cant complain about that stat line at all. Very happy with how he is turning out. While I might have better guards as far as recruiting rankings coming in, he is showing me he isn't going to be buried on the depth chart at all.

I hope you're right about Davis. I'm counting on my scout being too pessimistic about him.

Foster is a stud - terrific defensive player, shot-blocker and rebounder. His offense is more average, and he's a bit foul-prone, but overall he's the kind of defense and rebounding anchor I like to have in at least one of my starting posts.

Yeah but also stupidity on my part. I swore it was St. Joseph's who had this so I didn't fire the coaches to spend all the money on coaches. Then I made the late switch to Princeton and got the school to do this with confused.

USC goes 2-0 as we pass the Idaho State and Niagara tests. No blowouts as they are quality teams, but wins are wins, we will take em while we can.

They puts us at 11-2 on the season with an RPI of 16.

Now starts the dreaded PCC Play. We start with #22 UCLA at UCLA and follow that game up with none other than the #4 Washington at Washington. Not ideal at all, but we are gonna find out real quick if this team can hold its own in PCC play. We continue to be one of the top shooting teams in the country that shoots a 49% clip. We are tops in the PCC with that stat and 10th in the country. I should prob slow the game pace way down in all honesty, but I want to see how we do against the first few teams of PCC play. That might be coming soon though.

SG- Vincent Lincoln continues his good play for me off the bench and in fact in both past games averaged around 15 mins compared to Allen Storers 4. I think I have solved my bench issue, but well see how that fares in conf play.

We still foul way to much, and PG- Freddie Nation turns the ball over too much for me, but I cant really complain. If Edmond Nelson doesn't go down in that first game I wonder if we would be undefeated right now. We haven't lost since his return, and that includes wins over #12 Seattle and #23 Georgetown during that stretch.

We are disappointed that 5 star All-American 6'3 SG Jospeh Thomasson didn't commit last sim, but we still lead on him, and expect him to commit this month. We need to land a good one to try and keep up with the rest of the PCC and freaking San Francisco (God Damn Vaugh Griffis)

Not sure what to expect against UCLA and Washington

In the UCLA game they have the advantage rebounding, and exploiting a SF match up that favors them tremendously.

We hope to counter that with the best rebounder in the nation with JC Quiles, who we hope will put a dent in their rebounding advantage, and then our PG match up. 6'4 Freddie Nation vs. 5'10 Michael Hoffman seems like favorable matchup to us.

UCLA has the edge though as they are at home.

In the Washington game, I don't think we stack up well against them either.
Nelson will have trouble guarding SG-Italo Malocco and Dante Douglas will have trouble with their stud C- Francis Calhoun. I think Fenton also gives Freddie Nation some trouble holding on to the ball all in which gives them a pretty nice advantage.

I think the only way we stay in this game is if we don't turn the ball over, and can somehow have our guards grab some offensive rebounds for extra shots. While Washington is great on the boards, our guards should be able to challenge them in that area. It's a stretch but that's the only way I see us staying in the game.

Either way it should be a fun slate of games, and I am praying that we don't start off the PCC 0-2. I would happily take a 1-1 start and call that a win for our program

Here's a quick look at recruiting on the west coast with January results in the books - below are teams that currently have top-100 recruits committed:


I expect USC and UCLA will enter this list too in the next couple of months. Cal is doing well as usual. Oregon and Stanford are reloading very nicely. Very impressive to see what San Francisco pulled, and watch out for Saint Mary's - they are picking up a very strong class too. Colorado continues to solidify themselves in the Big 7. And look at lowly Pepperdine sneaking a top-100 guy - looks like the conference prestige of the WCC is paying off for them...

The National Basketball Report: December 29, 1956
NBR Top Twenty
1. Kansas State (9-1, LW 3)
2. North Carolina State (8-2, 4)
3. North Carolina (7-2, 5)
4. Washington (10-1, 6)
5. Indiana (10-1, 7)
6. Kentucky (8-2, 1)
7. Seattle (13-2, 2)
8. Kansas (9-3, 10)
9. California (6-2, 11)
10. Dayton (10-2, 8)
11. Bradley (8-2, 11)
12. West Virginia (9-2, 13)
13. Duquesne (12-4, 12)
14. Iowa (6-2, 16)
15. Duke (7-2, 17)
16. Arkansas (8-3, 19)
17. Syracuse (13-0, 20)
18. Oregon State (8-2, NR)
19. Oklahoma A&M (7-1, 15)
20. Holy Cross (7-1, NR)
Dropped Out: San Francisco (15), Clemson (18)


With the advent of the new year just two days away, here are a bunch of thoughts about the present, as well as the future:


- Syracuse continues to work up wins, moving to 13-0. They have just one more game left on their massive six-game road trip, with a trip to Miami-Ohio. After that, St. Francis (PA) waits, before #12 West Virginia comes to town. This will be Syracuse's waterloo, we believe. If Syracuse were to win that game, they can afford two or three losses and get into the NCAA Tournament. If they were to fall against West Virginia, especially in a blowout, they would have to run clean the rest of the way.


At least, this is our opinion. It does come with some thought and precedent, however. They're ranked seventh in the poll, in a year where the Absolutely Preposterous posters are launching teams all over the place. We hate to trumpet our own horn, but again, if you want a poll that is more grounded in reality, consider our Top Twenty. Syracuse has a RPI of #68, and play as an Independent. The difficulty in attaining an at-large bid with a RPI rank that low is extremely high. They do possess the nation's top defense, which is commendable. We will see how that looks when the Mountaineers, with their #2 offense and top point guard in the nation, John Hildebrand, come calling.


- Kentucky hit a major point of contention in their season's quest for a top seed with a 61-60 loss at 4-7 Niagara. Out of Niagara's losses, only one or two can be considered poor; the Purple Eagles are a veteran group, led by a four-year star point guard in Curt To. They are no slouch, and have played San Francisco, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and George Washington close. Losing to them, for most teams, is more of a matter of X's and O's than about stature.


Not Kentucky, though. They are a top-five team, and one of the few who can feel a realistic shot at a top seed. Looking at other top-seed candidates...


Kansas: Losses to Kentucky, West Virginia, and Holy Cross
Kansas State: Loss to Kentucky
North Carolina: Losses at Oklahoma City and at Oregon
NC State: Losses to Bradley and at Kansas
Indiana: Loss to Duquesne
California: Losses to Seattle and San Francisco
Washington: Loss at NC State


You get the idea. This is, far and away, the worst loss for a potential #1 seed. This could be what slides Kentucky to a #2. The season is young, of course...conference play has yet to start.


Looking directly at that loss, Kentucky shot just 34% from the field. Stephen Wiliford, the team's leading scorer, shot 5-16. Curt Davis was 5-14. Dougie Cobbs was 3-14. It was a narrow, one-point loss, but this also speaks to Kentucky's other problem: their offense. Specifically, we mean their shooting. They're 11th in the nation in total offense, but 52nd in field goal percentage. They win their games, generally speaking, through offensive rebounding (7th in the nation) and free throw shooting (9th in the nation). If you meet a disciplined team, and Niagara only commited eleven fouls in the game, Kentucky's main offense is neutralized. Kentucky held a 51-35 edge in rebounding, but Niagara played smart, disciplined basketball, and many of Kentucky's chances off those putbacks went astray.


The Purple Eagles laid down the blueprint on how to defeat Kentucky, especially if you're generally undermanned. It will be up to the SEC to take what Niagara did and improve upon it. For the Wildcats, this could spell major trouble...if they don't make any adjustments.


- Michael Asche set a NCAA record with nine steals, in Marshall's 83-77 win over St. Joe's. The previou record, eight, was held by many players. Ashe has always been a solid man on defense, swiping 1.4 balls a year ago, and 2.5 steals averaged this year, but this nine is probably a one-time deal.


"I kept cutting passing lines," said Asche after the game. "We had their offense scouted well, and they kept trying to go backdoor. I was able to recognize it and come from the other side. And they kept doing it."


- Stephen Ferrari may have had the performance that puts him on the landscape of the professional ranks. In San Francisco's 92-75 win over California yesterday, Ferrari scored twelve points, but registered FIFTEEN assists. That fifteen is one off the national record, set twice in 1955.


"Guys were open," said Ferrari (14.6 ppg, 8.7 apg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 spg) after the game.


In the win, San Francisco did more than just damage Cal. They may have asserted themselves as the #2 team in the West, behind Washington. Seattle is probably #3. That is big, because one of those teams may get shipped to the Midwest. Of course, they'll have to make a go without Ronnie Veasey, who will be out another four weeks.


"We have a talented team," said Ferrari. We know what we are capable of, and we know what can happen when we play to our potential. Washington beat us, but I know, if we played them again, there would be a different result."


The Dons (10-3) got 23 off Jared Stewart's 11-16 night. Cal, which is plagued by its frontcourt play, were accosted by San Francisco's 32 assists. That is just three off the national record, set by Utah back on February 1, 1954.


The Bears, meanwhile, continue to get next-to-nothing from their post guys. Willie Leagult, the team's center, is averaging just 4.9 points and 4.8 rebounds a game. Power forward Craig Kruger is not faring much better, going for 4.4 points and 7.9 boards a game.


"It is no secret that our big guys have to be more assertive," said Cal coach Ron Roberson. "Our guard play has been fantastic, but we need more balance. Otherwise, teams will be able to focus on just half of our team. This won't help us in the long run."


- Holy Cross gained respect with a victory over former top-five Kansas, walking into Kansas Fieldhouse and leaving with a 76-64 victory.


"That was a whooping," said Kansas coach, Dave Keene. "Those boys came in here to knock our heads off, and that they did."


The Crusaders held a 45-26 halftime lead, and held the Jayhawks to 41% shooting, and limited the damage to Luis Horne's 30. The Automorahn scored just four points. Charles Tillery scored 21 for the Crusaders, who now sit 7-1 on the season. Their lone loss is to Duke.


The season, however, is about to take form for the Crusaders. Their upcoming schedule:

12.30: at California
1.2: at NC State
1.4: at Bradley


Shortly after that, they travel to Kentucky and Iowa. It is likely that the team will not roll through all five games. If they were, they'd warrant serious consideration for the top seed in the East.


All of this from a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. Tillery is the true star of the team; the junior from the Connecticut shoreline is averaging a stout 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds a game. Pierre Baltazar is adding defensive might, but this team is in disrepair. Carl Moeller, the sophmore starting center, is out for the year. Guards Robin Snelling and Carl Kelley, both double-digit scorers on average, are both nursing injuries.


"Chuck has been the shoulders of this team," said Kelley. "We have gotten hurt and relied on him to lead the way. He is the leader of this team, and a big reason why we are off to the start we are on. He sets the tone."


- As of this writing, there are five players averaging a double-double:


JC Quiles, Southern Cal PF: 12.2 ppg, 13.0 rpg
Angelo Davis, Villanova C: 11.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg
Abraham Powell, Iowa State C: 13.8 ppg, 11.5 rpg
Joe Lundberg, PF: 10.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg
Brady Poe, Siena PF: 11.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg


Elijah Davis, who took over the career scoring record from Maryland's Elijah Dawkins earlier this season, is at 1843. He is the nation's scoring leader, at 23.3 ppg. He should be the first, and only, player at 2,000 points by this season's conclusion.


Alvin McKissick, of Syracuse, is five rebounds away from being the first player with a thousand in his career. Brady Poe, who sits fourth all-time, is at 956.


Marcos Godfrey will forever be in the discussion of greatest point guard of all-time. The former Indiana lead had 734 assists in his three years in Bloomington. Second is Ferrari of San Francisco, with 644. West Virginia's John Hildebrand has 619, and Andrew Cosme of St. Joe's has 612. What Godfrey did in his three years is incredible, though dreadfully overlooked.


The same can be said for Navy graduate, Jason McKnight. The former big man swatted away 293 in his storied career. The best active number is Wisconsin's Freddie Yan, who has 246. He has started 100 games in his career, and has seen his block numbers jump from 2.8 a game last year, to 5.1 this year. His rate is likely unsustainable, so it remains to be seen if the 6'11 center can get enough to set the national record.


Chauncey HInkley is one away from setting the dubious turnovers record. He has 370; Ohio State's Dirk Adams sits at 371. Yes, Dirk Adams is about to turn over his crown.


- Lastly, here are a few of the games we're looking forward to seeing the most coming up:


12.29: Notre Dame at St. Joe. The Irish are, once again, America's Greatest Disappointment. Can they beat the Hawks in Philadelphia? And if they continue to slide, is Joe Dawkins' job in jeopardy?


12.29: Oklahoma A&M at St. Mary's. This will be a difficult trip for the Cowboys. Two of the Gaels' three losses are at Southern Cal and UCLA. And Denver has a winning record. This is no gimmie trip for A&M.


12.30: Iowa at Kansas. A distinct style clash, as Iowa's rough-and-tumble matches up with Kansas' flash-and-dash. Can the Automorahn and the guards secure victory? This has "signature win" all over it for Iowa, if they can produce a rather mild upset?


12.30: Holy Cross at California. Now we begin to find out if the Crusaders are for real.


12.30: Duquesne at Duke. The Dukes can ill-afford many more losses. A good showing at Duke will only go so far, especially if the Blue Devils fall off in conference play, like last season.


12.30: George Washington at Pittsburgh. A few weeks ago, the Colonials were 4-0 and ranked. The Panthers were the same. Now, GW is 5-6, Pitt is 6-6. How quickly the mighty tumble...


12.31: Michigan State at St. John's. Both of these teams need this win...Michigan State for at-large consideration, St. John's for seeding (come on, they're going to roll in the Metro).


12.31: Maryland at La Salle. This game can disrupt someone's season.


1.2: Holy Cross at NC State. Another big game for the Crusaders. This one has relevance to the Wolfpack, too.


1.4: West Virginia at Villanova. This is a big test for the Mountaineers. The Wildcats do not turn over for anyone, especially in Philadelphia. Don't expect a win for West Virginia.


1.4: Holy Cross at Bradley. The tour continues.


1.5: Iowa at NC State. Neither program has shied away from heavyweights, have them?


1.5: Oregon State at Loyola U of LA: Do not be surprised if the Lions give Oregon State a tougher game than they expect. Despite a couple blowout losses to Ohio State and Cal, this isn't a bad team. In fact, they've won three of four since the starting 0-4.


The Bottom Five
Ranking the worst of the worst...


To end our piece, we wanted to give a nod to what we believe are the five worst teams in the nation. This may become a regular thing. It depends on how bad it is.


5. Northwestern (1-7). Among the league worst in total offense, total defense, and a host of other categories. 161st out of 171 in point differential. The Wildcats were 23-9 three years ago; now, they are 1-7 and heading into a better Big Ten than they've seen. To their credit, they've only faced one bad team so far, and beat that team, Loyola-Illinois, 74-50.


4. Hardin-Simmons (1-11). They inexplicably beat an even Houston team in Houston, 50-41. The Cowboys are not exactly riding high, averaging just 56.7 points a game (152nd) and giving up 68.6 (137th). They are 164th in opposing field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 50.3%.


3. George Washington (5-6). Want to know how far they've fallen after a 4-0 start? They just earned Colgate their first win, 72-64. At home.


2. Pennsylvania (1-10). They have the second-worst defense in the country, giving up nearly 77 points a game. They rank near the bottom in almost every defensive category. They're lone win, amazingly, came against 5-8 Temple. It has been drastically downhill since...except their rematch with Temple. That was a 66-65 narrow Temple escape. They also almost knocked off St. Joe, succumbing 64-61. Perhaps they are turning the corner.


1. Western Michigan (1-9). The Broncos are ranked 104th in total offense, 166th in total defense, and in the bottom quartile in most categories. They're best stat is that they are 79th, with 13.8 assists a game. Their lone win came against considerable disappointment Tennessee Tech, two days ago.

NBR NCAA Tournament Projection



1 Indiana NC State 1
8 Connecticut W. Kentucky 8

5 Syracuse Arkansas 5
4 Duquesne West Virginia 4
East South
3 Bradley Dayton 3
6 Holy Cross Clemson 6

7 Niagara Columbia 7
2 Kansas Kentucky 2

1 Kansas State Washington 1
8 Toledo Texas Western 8

5 Oregon State Oklahoma A&M 5
4 Iowa Duke 4
Midwest West
3 California Seattle 3
6 Southern Methodist Southern Cal 6

7 St. John Utah State 7
2 North Carolina San Francisco 2

Nice post there. That is some good kids coming into the PCC again. I only have one offer to give this year, so ill eventually only add 1 guy to the list. Not sure how many UCLA has to offer out this year. I was surprised to see them not on the list honestly. I knew Vince was cleaning up the Cali kids though

NBR Analytics


Bracketology: First Look -- 2 per home game compared to road, also SOS adjustment(RPI under polls). A point per .01 of SOS over .500?

With conference play about to begin, NBR Analytics presents our first assessment of the tournament fields. These may indeed end up being somewhat different than those presented by the general editorial staff, making it useful to briefly comment on our methodology here at the 'nerdery'. Simply put, we are interested only in who has demonstrated themselves to be most deserving to date. Ranking is irrelevant to us, as is school prestige or reputation. This is an assessment of the body of work put forward on the court to date, nothing more and nothing less. As such, this is a projection of the teams that should make the field, not necessarily those who will. The two factors that matter to us are net rating(offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) and strength of schedule. All else is irrelevant noise.

A final disclaimer is that we would expect this projection to change a great deal as conference play unfolds. Much of the first of the year is a feeling-out period as teams try to find optimal lineups, rotations, and strategies. The level of competition in conference play is much different than it has been to date for many as well. This is merely how things stand at the moment.


NCAA

1 -- Kansas(Big 7), Kansas State, Bradley(MVC), West Virginia(Southern)
2 -- Indiana(Big Ten), North Carolina State(ACC), Oregon(PCC), Kentucky(SEC)
3 -- San Francisco(WCC), Washington, Seattle, Holy Cross
4 -- Virginia, Clemson, Duquesne, Georgia Tech
5 -- Syracuse, Michigan, San Jose State, Saint Mary's
6 -- Utah(MSAC), Dartmouth(Ivy Group), Georgetown, Duke
7 -- North Carolina, St. John's(Metro NY), Southern Methodist(SWC) Toledo(MAC)
8 -- Niagara(WYN3), Arizona State(BIAA), Connecticut(Yankee), Murray State(Ohio Valley)

The conferences are listed in parentheses for automatic bids, given to the best team in each conference as league play has not yet begun. Note: you could basically flip a coin between Duke, North Carolina, and Mississippi State for the final at-large spots. They're that close right now.


NIT

1 -- Mississippi State, Dayton, California, Ohio State
2 -- Oklahoma A&M, Southern California, Michigan State, Denver
3 -- Santa Clara, Alabama, Colorado, Idaho State
4 -- Maryland, UCLA, Iowa, Saint Joseph's
5 -- Villanova, Arkansas, Iowa State, Citadel
6 -- Stanford, TX Technological Colle, Oklahoma City, Northwestern
7 -- Utah State Agricultural Col, Washington State, Notre Dame, La Salle
8 -- Colorado A&M, Manhattan, Baylor, Columbia

We find it rather amazing the degree to which the pollsters find themselves impressed by well-regarded programs recording relatively unimpressive wins against a collection of subpar teams. Many of them will no doubt improve their results as the season progresses, but until they do, putting them in the field assumes facts not in evidence to date.

Scrubbing through the list, looks like you will likely land Thomasson (#20 overall) and Stanford will finish up with Martin (#25 overall). I had thought UCLA was up there for some of these guys, but it looks like they've aimed a bit lower despite having 5 rides to give. IIRC, it's been a while since Groundhog did an import for them, so it appears the AI has not been real aggressive on his behalf.

And don't look now, but Pepperdine - of the 29 prestige - could end up adding Poteat (#66 overall) to their class. Utah also looks set to add Valero (#99 overall) to their haul.

It's funny you mention Pepperdine - it's that time of year for Dartmouth to start looking through for anyone that may have slipped through the cracks...and Pepperdine is all over all of them. No one is coaching them, right? I'm impressed with the AI pushing that far out of their depth prestige-wise.

So looking through my scout,

Oregon- Benoit should be great on D but average everywhere else Orange/ Green

Cal- Tyler- should be able to score inside, defend, and rebound on d. average everywhere else. Red/Yellow

Davis- has 3 B's in potential. Free throws, O rebounding and post D. Red/Green

Foster- on the other hand should be a beats on the board and on D. 3 A's and 2 B's potential. Orange/ Green.

My scout isn't great, but I have the best scout combo in the PCC, and Foster would have been the only guy I would have gone after there.


We all missed out on Steven Williams from Cali. That guy is going to be a monster for San Fran. I guess that is good news for me, and none of you hyenas landed him :) but he is gonna be a load for the next 4 years.

St. Mary's also looks like they did well from my scout.

Not even gonna talk about Vince, as Willie Mays should help him out from the get go next year.

First game was UCLA @ UCLA and let me tell you it was a good game.

We end up losing to them by 3, and it was a tough loss to swallow. We are up 33-29 at the half and end up losing 63-60.

Bright side, we lost by 3, shot our lowest percentage of the year at 39% and had the nations leading rebounder foul out after playing only 19 mins. I suspect that if we had PF J.C. Quiles for the whole game, we don't get out-rebounded 41-34 and we don't lose. Giving them 30 free throw attempts didn't help either, but we certainly tip our caps to them as Quiles did foul out and they still won the game.

I was happy that we only turned the ball over 11 times (Freddie Nation had 4 of them) and that Edmund Nelson shot 50% while scoring 22 points. Going forward I think when we play them at home it will be a different game. The rematch has already been circled.

The second game, and the game I was dreading honestly was @ Washington. If you remember, I thought the only way we had a shot at beating them was if our guards were able to get us offensive rebounds to get us extra shots at the hoop. I was pretty spot on with that part of my thinking (I know surprise, surprise) and we somehow pulled off the Miracle and beat a top 5 team in the country 69-61.

We ended up with 13 offensive boards and out rebounded them 38-24. Another good thing for us going forward was that Freshman shooting guard Edmund Nelson only played 14 mins in this game due to fouling out and we still won. He was our leading scorer of the game with 16 points in 14 mins. he can light it up any day of the week. Back ups Vincent Lincoln and Allen Storer, especially Storer stepped up and played well enough to get us the win.

I am not sure how to view this win in all honesty. Their star Center Francis Calhoun had a terrible game, and there is no way that is going to happen again. He only had 4 boards and 4 points. Like wise, Nelson fouling out didn't help us. So I don't think we learned anything about Washington from this game, and I am not sure what I learned about ourselves from this game.
I will however, say I was happy with our depth, as Washington played everybody and we didn't tire out.


Overall, I am pretty pleased and excited about where this team is and where it could be going. Just need to stop fouling as much to make sure our key guys continue to get the mins they should.

Up next is a scrappy Stanford team, Idaho and then #18 Oregon.

Not sure how these games will fare, but Oregon scares me the most. Not because they are ranked 18th, but because I don't match up with them athletically at all. They have to be one of the most athletic teams in the country and they are hoping to ride that wave all the way to the tourney.

We are currently ranked 13 and our RPI is 2nd best in the country. I like that a lot. We are 7-1 vs the top 50 at the moment and 3-2 vs 51-100.

Bracketology: Pre-Conference Edition

Much is still in flux. Most teams stayed where they were for the most part, but those who had a particularly strong or weak couple of weeks showed it with some considerable swings in their standing. At the top, the twin power in Kansas still rule the nation's basketball scene. At the moment though, the Jayhawks have lost the top overall spot in our rundown to their in-state rivals. It's close though. Behind them there are 3-4 teams in a tight battle for the rest of the #1 seeds.

NCAA

1 -- Kansas State(Big 7), Kansas, Bradley(MVC), Indiana(Big Ten)
2 -- West Virginia(Southern), Oregon(PCC), Kentucky(SEC), North Carolina State(ACC)
3 -- Seattle, San Francisco(WCC), Washington, Michigan
4 -- Virginia, California, Dayton, Duke
5 -- Mississippi State, Holy Cross, Duquesne, Southern California
6 -- UCLA, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Southern Methodist(SWC)
7 -- St. John's(Metro NY), Utah(MSAC), Dartmouth(Ivy Group), Texas Western(BIAA)
8 -- Toledo(MAC), Niagara(WYN3), Connecticut(Yankee), Murray State(Ohio Valley)


NIT

1 -- Saint Mary's, Ohio State, San Jose State, North Carolina
2 -- Syracuse, Georgetown, Michigan State, Idaho State
3 -- Maryland, Saint Joseph's, Oklahoma A&M, Villanova
4 -- Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, La Salle
5 -- Santa Clara, Iowa State, Colorado A&M, Citadel
6 -- Denver, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Stanford
7 -- Northwestern, Brigham Young, Illinois, Utah State Agricultural C
8 -- Oregon State, Butler, Arizona State, Washington State

One of our readers noted that last time around we had 7 of the 9 PCC schools in the post-season. Well, now that's up to 8, though Oregon State and Washington State are only narrowly in. It certainly speaks to the conference's strength as well. The ACC has 6 of 8 in as well.

Conference Ratings

Using the same metric as our bracketology, which we've named Adjusted Net Rating -- mostly just because it makes us sound somewhat smarter than we really are -- we present now our outlook on the nation's conferences as league play is set to begin. The teams are listed with their current rating and the projected order of finish. At the end of the year, we'll be able to see how much we really know. Hopefully, without eating too much crow, but only time will tell and this is an unpredictable sport. Just ask a Hoosier fan.


ACC(11.71)

North Carolina State(+23.8)
Virginia(+19)
Duke(+17.2)
Clemson(+15.6)
North Carolina(+12.6)
Maryland(+10.9)
South Carolina(-1.6)
Wake Forest(-3.8)

With a full half-dozen legitimate quality teams, particularly with the Cavaliers and Tigers doing surprisingly well, there's little doubt about it: the ACC is the premier conference in America this year. They don't really have a peer right now.


PCC(+10.5)

Oregon(+26.1)
Washington(+19.8)
California(+18.2)
Southern California(+16)
UCLA(+15.8)
Stanford(+3.9)
Oregon State(+2.3)
Washington State(+1.5)
Idaho(-9.1)

We doubt the selection committee will have the good sense to do it, but the PCC should have five teams in the NCAA field. It's that strong this year, and the only conference even close to rivaling the ACC.


Big 7(8.77)

Kansas State(+32.7)
Kansas(+31.5)
Colorado(+7.5)
Iowa State(+6.0)
Oklahoma(-1.6)
Missouri(-5.8)
Nebraska(-8.9)

The road to the national title still goes through Kansas. Don't forget about Colorado and Iowa State though; both programs are doing a solid job and should not be overlooked.


Big Ten(8.49)

Indiana(+27.4)
Michigan(+19.3)
Ohio State(+13.1)
Michigan State(+11.7)
Iowa(+7.5)
Minnesota(+4.0)
Northwestern(+3.8)
Illinois(+2.9)
Purdue(-1.2)
Wisconsin(-3.6)

The Big Ten started a bit slow this year but has picked up steam recently. Big question marks are whether Michigan is as good as they have appeared against the ninth-toughest schedule in the nation, and whether Illinois has just been bored or whether they are as disappointing as they have looked against an inferior schedule. The last few games were better for the Illini. We'll find out soon.


WCC(+4.4)

San Francisco(+21.7)
Saint Mary's(+13.3)
San Jose State(+13.1)
Santa Clara(+7.2)
Pacific(-5.4)
Pepperdine(-8.3)
Loyola U of Los Angeles(-10.8)

The Dons have more competition than usual, but should reverse last year's surprise by Saint Mary's and take their second crown in three years. The WCC is good, but not nearly among the elite. There's too much drek at the bottom for that.


MSAC(2.15)

Utah(+8.7)
Colorado A&M(+4.8)
Denver(+4.6)
Brigham Young(+3.1)
Utah State Agricultural C(+2.9)
Montana(+0.9)
Wyoming(-3.5)
New Mexico(-4.3)

It hasn't been a good last couple of weeks for the MSAC, but for the season they are doing surprisingly well. Most of the conference elected for a challenging schedule, it may be catching up to them a bit but they've held their own and then some for the most part. This could well prove to be one of the more competitive leagues around this season. It will definitely be worth watching.


SEC(+1.83)

Kentucky(+25)
Mississippi State(+16.8)
Georgia Tech(+13.5)
Vanderbilt(+3.4)
Alabama(+1.4)
Tulane(-1.4)
Georgia(-2)
Alabama Polytechnic Insti(-3.0)
Tennessee(-3.5)
Florida(-5.2)
Louisiana State(-7.4)
Mississippi(-15.7)

It's definitely looking like a down year for the Southeast. Kentucky is outstanding as always, Miss. St. and Georgia Tech should go dancing, but it's a long fall after that. For a team in such a well-regarded league, the Rebels in particular are an absolute dumpster fire, and LSU expected much better things from this season as well.


MVC(-0.35)

Bradley(+27.9)
Oklahoma A&M(+9.4)
Municipal U of W(-1.2)
Saint Louis(-3.6)
Tulsa(-3.7)
Drake(-5.9)
Mercy Col of Detroit(-12.7)
Houston(-13.0)

The gap between Bradley and the rest of the MVC is hilariously immense. Oklahoma A&M should find itself somewhere in the post-season as well though. After a strong year last season, we find ourselves wondering what happened to Houston ...


Southern(-1.78)

West Virginia(+27.1)
Citadel(+4.8)
VMI(-1.3)
Virginia Tech(-1.9)
George Washington(-4.9)
Davidson(-5.3)
Furman(-8.5)
Richmond(-11.7)
William & Mary(-14.3)

Like Bradley in the MVC, this is a one-team conference with West Virginia in control.


Independents(-1.79)

Seattle(+22.6)
Dayton(+18.1)
Holy Cross(+16.5)
Duquesne(+16.4)
Syracuse(+12.5)
Georgetown(+12.2)
Idaho State(+11.2)
Saint Joseph's(+10.5)
Villanova(+8.3)
La Salle(+7.5)
Notre Dame(+4.3)
Butler(+1.7)
Penn State(+0.8)
Oklahoma City(+0.6)
Temple(+0.3)
Miami(-0.8)
Seton Hall(-0.8)
Colgate(-1.4)
Pittsburgh(-1.9)
Louisville(-2.0)
TX Techological Colle(-2.2)
Rutgers(-3.3)
Boston College(-3.9)
Iona(-4.3)
DePaul(-4.6)
Cincinatti(-4.7)
Bucknell(-6.4)
Siena(-7.2)
Marquette(-8.0)
Portland(-8.1)
Loyola-IL(-8.6)
Gonzaga(-9.4)
Memphis State(-9.5)
Muhlenburg(-9.8)
Florida State(-10.8)
Loyola-LA(-10.9)
Lafayette(-11.4)
Saint Francis-PA(-12.7)
Army(-13.3)
Creighton(-13.8)
Xavier(-14.1)
Lehigh(-16.4)
Navy(-20)

As usual, more bad than good but there are a number of quite solid teams here. Seattle has really distinguished themselves as a team that nobody wants a piece of, Syracuse had a great start but has fallen off a bit lately, and Idaho State is quite a surprise, continually improving so far. On the other end of the scale, there's Navy -- our clear choice for the most inept team in the nation.


Metro NY(-4.23)

St. John's(+11.6)
City Col of New York(-3.0)
Manhattan(-3.5)
St. Francis-NY(-4.0)
Brooklyn(-6.4)
Fordham(-10.2)
New York University(-14.1)

St. John's and everyone else -- another predictable year in the Metro.


SWC(-5.13)

Southern Methodist(+11.7)
Arkansas(+7.6)
Baylor(-0.7)
Texas Christian(-9.9)
Agricultural and Mechanic(-13.3)
Texas(-14.0)
Rice(-18.7)

It's looking like an annual tradition to have SMU and Arkansas at the head of the Southwest. We've got the Mustangs to repeat this year.


BIAA(-5.5)

Texas Western(+4.7)
Arizona State(+1.5)
West Texas State(-8.4)
Arizona(-8.8)
Hardin-Simmons(-9.1)
New Mexico A&M(-13.2)

Not a whole lot to say here really. Looks like a two-horse race for the NCAA bid, otherwhise this is a conference best avoided.


WYN3(-5.5)

Niagara(+3.9)
St. Bonaventure(-5.1)
Canisius(-15.3)

Niagara's ok, but the rest said about the other two, the better.


Ivy Group(-6.16)

Dartmouth(+8.2)
Cornell(-4.2)
Pennsylvania(-5.1)
Columbia(-5.7)
Harvard(-9.3)
Brown(-10.7)
Yale(-10.8)
Princeton(-11.7)

We respectfully disagree with our colleagues who wrote last week that the Ivy is 'incredibly underrated'. At least for this year. Dartmouth is a decent team, but the rest have been very disappointing as a whole. It's cant-watch-TV right now . In some cases it's youth that simply need seasoning; in others, a hodge-podge of talents that just haven't meshed for various reasons despite good coaching in most cases. The depth isn't there to survive injuries either. But whatever the whys may be, our perspective is that the conference has never been weaker than it is this year.


Yankee(-6.63)

Connecticut(+1.3)
New Hampshire(-5.6)
Vermont(-7.4)
Rhode Island(-7.5)
Masschusets(-9.6)
U of Maine at Or(-11.0)

UConn and the Misfits. Almost sounds like the name of a musical band. In all fairness, most of the rest of the conference is merely bad, not terrible as you would see at a few places around the country. The problem here is mostly that the Huskies are merely decent, and there's just nobody to challenge them.


MAC(-6.91)

Toledo(+3.9)
Bowling Green State(+1.4)
Ohio(-7.7)
Miami-Ohio(-10.5)
Western Michigan(-11.1)
Kent State(-11.2)
Marshall(-13.2)

Even Toledo isn't that great this year, but they still should have enough take the conference. The bottom half of the MAC is truly putrid right now.


Ohio Valley(-10.97)

Murray State(-2.5)
Eastern Kentucky State(-7.5)
Morehead State(-11.2)
Tennessee Tech(-14.4)
Middle Tennessee(-14.5)
Western Kentucky(-15.7)

Please do yourself a favor and avoid the Ohio Valley this year. If you're bored, go watch the Ocho, sharpen your ginsu knives, or spend some quality time outdoors watching the grass grow. It will be a much better use of your time. It's truly a traveshamockery that somebody from this conference, almost certainly Murray State again, will darken the doors of the NCAA tournament.

As I was looking at this I started noticing a theme for USC- we played a tough ass OOC schedule.

In this picture we have beaten/lost

Beaten Seattle and Washington on the 3 line
Lost to UCLA and Southern Methodist on the 6 line
Beat Niagara on the 8 line

On the NIT Predictions

Beat St. Mary's, and San Jose State on the 1 line
Beat Georgetown and Idaho State on the 2 line
Beat Northwestern and BYU on the 7 line
Lost to Arizona State on the 8 line.


No wonder our RPI is 2nd in the country

I suspect you'll be fine, we might tank your RPI a little though, sorry about that :D

USC ends up going 3-1 this sim with wins over Stanford, Idaho, and Oregon. However, we fall to Oregon State on the road.

The good- We stayed healthy, and there is a lot to say for that. I figured we would beat Stanford and Idaho, but Oregon was the game that worried me. Honestly, Oregon State would have worried me as well, but I thought we were only playing 3 games this sim and not 4 which is why I never said anything about Oregon State.

Beating Oregon was huge as we showed we would play in a track meet winning 88-85. Scoring 88 points was a season high for us. We also showed we will still shoot at a high % in a track meet as we shot 53% in that game. However, the concern is that one of Oregon's best players Center and first team all PCC Kenneth Foster only played 5 mins of the game before going down with an injury. If Foster plays his usual mins, would that have changed the outcomes. My guess is yes, so while I would love to sit here and say we have arrived, I am still not all that confident. Getting this win at their place was huge though, and I'd rather have him play us at home (where we are undefeated on the year) healthy for the next game.

Oregon State- It was only a matter of time before they crashed our party. We have been a major thorn to their side of the past few years, when they should have beaten us, so its not a surprise they got up for this and kicked us in the teeth for this one. They shut down our post players as our starting posts only scored a total of 6 points. Dante Douglas didn't score in the darn game at all. They came out firing at the top of their game and it was hard for us to play catch up. They were beating us 50-32 at the half. We needed to do a better job on the defensive side as they shot 49% for the game. That's not getting it done at all. Even with Freshman sensation Edmund Nelson dropping 28 and grabbing 13 boards on them we couldn't hang. Congrats to Mike on his teams win here, they earned that W.


Next up is a huge sim for us. California, Washington State, and then UCLA again.

Your post got me thinking about my schedule - here's who we've played from that projection:

NCAA projected teams:

Beat Oregon, lost to N.C. State (2 seeds)
Beat San Francisco and Michigan (3 seeds)
Beat Cal (4 seed)
Lost to USC (5 seed)
Beat Utah (7 seed)
Beat Toledo (8 seed)

NIT projected teams:

Beat Idaho State (2 seed)
Beat Colorado (4 seed)
Beat Iowa State (5 seed)
Beat Stanford (6 seed)
Beat Northwestern (7 seed)
Beat Washington State (8 seed)

I may want to slightly tone down my scheduling next year. NC State opponents:

NCAA:

(1) Kansas - loss
(1) Bradley - loss
(3) Washington - win
(4) Virginia - win
(4) Duke - loss
(5) Holy Cross - win
(6) Clemson - loss
(6) Georgia Tech - win
(8) Toledo - win


NIT:

(1) North Carolina - loss
(2) Idaho State - win
(3) Maryland - win
(4) Iowa - win
(5) Citadel - win
(6) Stanford - win
(7) BYU - win
(7) Illinois - win


Remaining on the schedule

NCAA

(1) Kansas State
(4) Duke
(4) Virginia
(6) Clemson

NIT:

(1) North Carolina
(3) Maryland



5-4 vs NCAA teams, hopefully we can take down the remaining NCAA 1 seed on our schedule.

Since everyone's doing it, Stanford:

NCAA:
(2) NC State (L)
(3) Washington (L)
(5) Duquesne (W), USC (L)
(6) Georgia Tech (L), UCLA (L)

NIT:
(1) Saint Mary's (L), San Jose State (L)
(5) Santa Clara (W)
(6) Denver (L)
(7) Illinois (W)
(8) Oregon State (L), Washington State (L)

Yet to come:

NCAA:
(2) Oregon (twice)
(3) Washington
(4) California (twice)
(5) USC
(6) UCLA

NIT:
(8) Oregon State, Washington State

Way too many L's up there for my taste, and unfortunately none of them was particularly close.

The thing is, not much point in trying to tone down your schedule IMO if you are in the ACC or PCC. It's murderous no matter how you slice it.

I tend to not go crazy with my OOC scheduling since I know I'm going to get a good RPI boost from the PCC slate, but I do try to mix in a number of decent teams that have a chance to be pretty good as well (Colorado, Utah, ASU, Idaho State) as at least one top-20 type of team. Looks like my annual game with Seattle U will provide a nice RPI boost too.

But I also like to mix in a few creampuffs early as I work out the kinks and build up the competency of my team's defensive style, and give the schedule a regional feel to it.

I make my schedule based on opponent prestige, just to have some kind of system to it. This year I made a couple schedule offers to top human opponents, but other than those I made sure to play a few of the top teams and then just pick through a prestige range to get a good mix of mid to top tier competition, with a few cupcakes mixed in (but only a few). This year it just turned out that most of the mid-tier teams I scheduled appear to be at least NIT caliber.

I was surprised at how many opponents were on that list, but I actually probably won't change anything. I do want to play some top teams every year, and I'm 6-1 against "NIT" projcted teams (really 6-0 or maybe even 7-0, given the fact that UNC will be an NCAA team and Virginia may well fall to the NIT still) and don't really expect that to change much anytime soon given the advantages I had at the start with NC State. I just need a better record vs NCAA competition is all. I continue to worry about how much of that is luck vs sabotaging myself with shitty gameplanning.

Typically when I'm scheduling, I like to arrange a pair of games early that are against super weak competition, at least prestige-wise. Hardin-Simmons, etc. Then I go for a couple against decent mid-major type schools. I try to make the majority of my non-conference games against tough schools at that point, but I usually like to schedule one or two 'easy' games right before conference play starts.

I also subscribe to the Radii theory of scheduling. I didn't mean to schedule as hard as I did. I tried to revamp my scheduling this year, but didn't want to pick as many good teams as I eventually did. That just occurred by accident. I thought I had picked middle of the road teams that would give us a decent game, but that we would ultimately win. I was more than surprised (which is why I looked at our schedule) at how many teams seemed to be in the upper tier this year.

Next year, I will do the same thing, but hope that it gets turned down a notch. I question, if I would have lost some of those OOC games where USC would be sitting now.

I cant wrap my head around this team. All the talent in the world, but they turn it on and off when they feel like it and lose games they shouldn't be losing.

First up was the battle with California. We get serious in the 2nd half and score 42 to their 26 and we win 73-60. That puts us beating the top 2 teams in the conf and has us looking up, one would think right?

Well we decided that we were too good for our own good and lose then next game to Washington State 58-57..... Really guys??? Cant blame this on fouls or any other crap, we just decided that we could throw our shoes out on the court and would win... Not so fast and Washington State earns the victory.

Next up is UCLA. You know the UCLA that beat us in the first game of the season..... and we play the same way. UCLA dusts us 76-60...

Now the scramble is on. We have lost 3 of our last 4 and the conference title is just slipping right down the tubes.....

With just over a month to go now in the regular season, most schools have their teeth pretty well sunk into conference play and at this point it's just a matter of executing and hoping to stay healthy. Those who still have work left to reach their goals are either going to hit their stride now, or savor disappointments that will be bitter in some cases. Time is beginning to run short, and the expected hierarchy has established itself in most places.

Before we get to the projected field itself though, a correction and an apology must be made. It seems an error made it into our last issue. It stuck in our craw that Bradley was ranked so highly after a bad loss to Indiana, and a frankly much worse loss to Detroit Mercy. The Braves are a fine team but don't belong in the same category as Indiana and the two Kansas schools. The mistake has been corrected, and we think their current standing much more closely reflects the achievements of their season to date. We will endeavor to earn the confidence of our valued readers by being more vigilant in future editions.

NCAA

1 -- Kansas State(Big 7), Indiana(Big Ten), Kansas, West Virginia(Southern)
2 -- North Carolina State, Bradley(MVC), Kentucky(SEC), Washington(PCC)
3 -- Oregon, California, San Francisco(WCC), Duke
4 -- Seattle, North Carolina(ACC), UCLA, Duquesne
5 -- Virginia, Michigan State, Southern California, Michigan
6 -- Iowa, Georgia Tech, La Salle, Arkansas(SWC)
7 -- St. John's(Metro NY), Dartmouth(Ivy Group), Connecticut(Yankee), Niagara(WYN3)
8 -- Utah State Agricultural Col(MSAC), Texas Western(BIAA), Murray State(Ohio Valley), Marshall(MAC)

West Virginia is far from a sure thing as a deserving #1, merely the best of many possible options for the fourth spot there right now. The other three however, are basically locks at this point with the Hoosiers looking better and better with each passing week. One of that power trio is highly likely to cut down the nets at the end of the year in our view. Kansas is a bit behind the other two, but not by far. The PCC has a number of teams good enough to play spoiler as well if things fall their way(and they don't beat each other up too much)

NIT

1 -- Clemson, Southern Methodist, Ohio State, Oklahoma A&M
2 -- Holy Cross, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, Villanova
3 -- Maryland, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Idaho State
4 -- Syracuse, Saint Mary's, San Jose State, Santa Clara
5 -- Stanford, Temple, Georgetown, Vanderbilt
6 -- Oregon State, Utah, Illinois, Oklahoma City
7 -- Colorado, Toledo, Washington State, Baylor
8 -- Tulane, Iowa State, Citadel, Brigham Young

The National Basketball Report: February 14, 1957

NBR Top Twenty
1. Kansas State (19-1, LW 1)
2. Indiana (20-1, 2)
3. Kentucky (18-2, 3)
4. Washington (20-3, 4)
5. Kansas (18-4, 5)
6. NC State (17-6, 6)
7. North Carolina (19-4, 8)
8. Seattle (26-3, 7)
9. Duke (17-5, 10)
10. San Francisco (21-3, 14)
11. Bradley (16-4, 13)
12. Southern California (16-5, 9)
13. Duquesne (22-5, 15)
14. Arkansas (18-5, 14)
15. West Virginia (20-4, 15)
16. Dayton (20-5, 18)
17. OKlahoma A&M (17-3, 16)
18. La Salle (22-5, NR)
19. California (15-6, 20)
20. UCLA (16-5, NR)
Dropped Out: Oregon State (17), Oregon (19)




The Season Inside
Taking the road least traveled to find rivalry and revelry


Throughout the season, conference races get heated. Except in this season. The ACC, Big 7, Big Ten, PCC, and SEC races have all but fizzled out. You already know who is getting in, who is vying for a top seed...there is incredibly little drama in those conferences.


What about a conference where there is only one postseason bid? What about a conference where the foes are so heated, police are often on standby in case the fans get rowdy? What about a conference involving a bunch of players few outside its jurisdiction have ever heard of, but within that perimeter, they are heroes?


This is life in the Mountan State Athletic Conference...the conference nobody wants to concede.


The conference which gives no quarter.


The conference, which resides in the Rocky Mountain range, includes teams from Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. The conference has some notable players, primarily Utah's sterling guard, Robert Peeler, and the Utah State duo, Benjamin Doolittle and Fran Upshaw. Outside of that, little is known by the common fan. What should be known is this: As UNC, Duke, and the like travel on luxurious buses in fine weather, these schools are traveling around on rented buses in snowy conditions through treacherous trails.


"We had an accident heading to Provo, about a year back," said Peeler, discussing a trip to BYU last year. "A car spun out of control, and hit us. We ended up in a ditch alongside the road. They didn't have another bus for four hours, and it was snowing. The officers brought a paddy wagon for us.


"Unfortunately, that slipped on an ice patch, and ended up about a quarter-mile down the road in another ditch."


The life of the Mountain Stater is not glamorous. Your story, outside of local papers and this publication, will most likely go untold. The time zone is not conducive to East Coast reporters, and the West Coast already has the PCC to worry about. Only four players over three seasons have been in the national recruiting top 150, which is considered the upper echelon of recruit. Those are:


1953: C Hal Myers, Utah State (110th)
1954: PF Dave Baptist, Utah (104th)
1955: C David Long, BYU (103rd) and PG Rudy Grimmett, Colorado A&M (106th)


The most highly-ranked class is the 1954 Utah team, which ranked 48th. Last year's overall haul, in which half the conference ranked from 52nd to 89th, is considered the best yet.


"Our kids see opportunity here," said Utah coach Lacy Hutchens. "We see the true value of the player's hard work and dedication. We aren't always going to land Captain Hotshot, but we will land Hustle Russell."


This year has seen a culmination of years of Hustle Russells. The conference race is heated, more heated than any race in the country.


And nobody knows about it...until now.


Conference play began on January 21st. Going into conference play, Utah had the conference's best record, at 8-5. What has happened since has been nothing short of chaos.


January 21st
New Mexico 69, Utah 67 (OT): A wonderful primer for Mountain State play; the two teams combine for 46 fouls, and the Lobos' Dean Burroughs hit a fading shot from the corner at the buzzer to send it to overtime. With 1:33 left, he found Michael Weiland for a score, giving New Mexico a 69-67 lead. New Mexico forced a Utah miss, but Weiland traveled with :35 left. Gene Theisen had an open look, but missed. Fritz Owens got the rebound, and threw up a wild shot, hoping to get a foul. He missed. Robert Peeler fouled Hobert Chastain, fouling out of the game with :05 left. Chastain missed both free throws, giving Utah one more shot. Theisen got the rebound, took two dribbles, and launched a ball 75 feet. It hit the rim, but did not fall. The Lobos welcomed Utah to the season inside with a loss.


"We call it the season inside because it is simply more important to us than the season out there," said New Mexico head coach Tony Fuller. "We know this conference isn't getting more than one bid yet. We get our games outside of here, we take a few licks, and we get ready. Then we get inside our real season, the one inside our conference. The season inside, that's our goal. Anything out of it is gravy."


Denver beat Wyoming, 63-55, getting the Pioneers to 8-7. The aptly-named Marco Winner scores 19. They are one of two teams over .500 at this stage. They also own the league's best outside wins this year, beating Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Stanford, and Colorado on the road. They may be the best-tested for the season inside.


"Oh, that's a bunch of malarkey," said Pioneer coach, James Dao about Fuller's talk of the season inside. "That's the talk of a man who does not have a complete program. Look, you want to be the best? Go play somebody. Get better. You get better by learning from other teams, by finding what works for your team. These schools that want to play half the season, fine. Games are games. Play your best, be your best, and your best gets better as you become more experienced."


Make no mistake, however: the Mountain State is not like the ACC. When a school from a "big" conference gets taken down, the coaching staff usually gets congratulatory phone calls or telegrams about it the next day. Of course, that is after a call is placed to the advance men who were at the game, taking notes about who did what, and what was run. Despite the weather, these men conduct their thankless jobs with incredible detail.


January 26: The first full day of conference games. Denver takes out Utah, 79-70, sending a message across the conference. The Utes are 0-2, and Denver 2-0. Utah State, the preseason favorite, opens things up with a handy win over BYU. The Cougars, the program many thought would become kings of the conference, are an afterthought after three directionless seasons.


January 28: Utah gets in the win column with a 30-point win over Colorado A&M. That was not a surprise. What was a major surprise was BYU's 55-39 win over Denver. Denver was held to 29% shooting. Though, to hear Dao say it, BYU had little to do with it.


"Sometimes you don't shoot well," said Dao. "Sure, defense has something to do with it. But we missed twelve layups. We were not ready to play today. Sometimes, you tip your cap to the other team. And sometimes, you look in the mirror. Today was a day to look in the mirror."


February 2: Montana shocked Utah, 90-81, while Denver rebounded with a big, 66-55 win over Utah State. Their lead in the conference is conditional, though; BYU beat New Mexico, 66-59, has played one less game, and would hold a tiebreaker over Denver if the two were to tie (at least, for now). BYU is 6-13 on the year, but 2-1 on the season inside.


"We talked to our kids before the conference season started," BYU coach Maxwell Scudder said. "We had an honest talk with them. We played an amibitious schedule before the season started. We took some hard falls, but we made some progress, too. I told them I thought we were a better team than we were at the beginning of the season, and if they stayed mentally tough, and saw through it all, we were really 0-0. And we liked our chances. Our kids never lost focus."


BYU played NC State, Arkansas, Temple, Cal, Syracuse, Southern Cal, Illinois, Duke, Washington State, Saint Mary's, and Oregon before their conference slate took hold. During one stretch, they lost ten of eleven games. Since then, they are 6-3.


February 4: Denver and New Mexico took a break from the conference, registering non-conference wins. But BYU took the conference lead, blasting Colorado A&M, 73-57. Utah State beat up on Jekyll-and-Hyde Montana, 78-48, while Utah took out Wyoming, 64-59. The Cowboys are the one program that has had difficulty finding their footing in the conference. They are 0-5.


"We are a young team," said Wyoming head man Israel Schneider. "We're going to take our lumps. We play two seniors, and start three juniors. I think we're showing progress. This league is tight, from top to bottom. All we can do is ask our kids to learn and get better every day. If we do that, the chips will fall where they may."


Montana, meanwhile, seems to be the wild card in this whole mix. They beat Utah, in Salt Lake City no less, then turn around and lose by thirty at home to a similarly up-and-down Utah State team. They're 7-13, and in searching for answers, have found more questions.


"It's like a leaky ship," said Ellsworth Rainbolt, who is in his first year as the head coach at Montana after spending the last three years as the assistant coach at Kansas State. "You find one hole, plug it up, and another hole springs up. You're slowly going under, but you're going to prolong it as much as possible. We had that one five-game losing streak to start, then got a win...then had Syracuse and Seattle. Fine. We beat Idaho, but then had another losing streak. After the Utah win, I thought we may have turned a corner. I think we walked into one."


Montana, for the moment, is 2-2 in the conference.


February 9: Montana would fall again, this time 60-58 to Brigham Young. The loss came despite forcing 21 turnovers out of the Cougars. A 36-26 rebounding edge got BYU to 4-1 in the conference. Perhaps the turnaround is complete. At least, in these circles, they are an afterthought no more.


"We are eight and thirteen," said Scudder. "It is not time to sit back and rest on our laurels. Our laurels are thorns. Sit back, get pricked. This team should not feel comfortable and headstrong at this point."


The Cougars had let a nine-point halftime lead slip, and fell behind 52-51 with 3:35 left. They stretched it back to 59-54 with :14 left. Many who were at the game, though, say that if the Grizzlies had one more possession, that game may have gone into overtime.


"BYU was tired," said one scout afterwards. "Montana closed on them hard. They just ran out of time. Give them two more minutes of gametime, and Montana wins that."


Denver stayed with BYU, getting a key 63-61 win over New Mexico. Hubert Steffens led the Pioneers with 17. In many ways, Steffens embodies the Mountain State player.


"He's a heads up player," said Dao of Steffens. "He isn't flashy. Good jump shot. Hits his free throws, especially big ones. He rebounds well for his size (5.8 rebounds, 6'1 guard). He has gotten better every year he's been in the program. He's a kid who came in, knew his job, and does his job. He's just gotten better at doing it. He has his abilities. I wouldn't say he's outplayed them, like Winner. But he knows his strengths, and plays to them."


Marco Winner, meanwhile, started out of necessity on last year's 10-19 team. In many ways, he is the face of the program.


"He struggled early on," said Dao. "He's a guy who worked hard, and got into games, but he pushed too hard. He rushed his game. He had to learn. Now, he's near a thousand points. I don't know that anyone could have predicted that when he was a freshman. He didn't start until last year. He is not the fastest player, nor the biggest, nor the strongest. But you will have a hard time finding anyone who plays harder."


Utah State, meanwhile, cannot find their rhythm. They lose, handedly, to Colorado A&M. The 6'10, 245-pound behemoth for A&M, Josh Bernal, led the way with 20, adding to his conference record of career points (as of this writing, he is at 1,402). His nickname in the conference is "Sasquatch." This, despite the fact that hal Myers, Bernal's direct opponent in this game, is twenty pounds bigger.


"We call him the Yeti," said Bernal.


February 11: Utah gains some revenge, beating Brigham Young, 85-73. Robert Peeler, the star of the conference, scored 12 and dished 16 assists.


"I look at the things he does, and wonder why he chose Utah," said one scout.


Peeler is the conference's second-all-time scorer, behind Bernal. He is the Mountain State's all-time assist man, with 658 going into publication. He has 315 more than second place. And he's humble about it.


"I get to pass to guys who score," said Peeler. "It isn't rocket science. Do you see what those guys are doing? They're putting spaceships up there. All I do is throw a ball. The other guy has to score it."


If Utah (11-8, 3-3) is to pull this conference out, it will be because Peeler has willed them to it. On this day, he willed Jack Gallagaher to a career-high 22 in a must-win game against a conference leader. He has nutured forward Ernest Pedro into a consistent scorer. He makes the plays in front of him, and doesn't leave any plays on the floor.


BYU, meanwhile, never felt in sync. The old doubt returns, at least for a night. Players were hesitant. The Cougars commited 22 turnovers.


"We weren't us," said Scudder. "We were what we've been."


Colorado A&M, meanwhile, pulled even with the tops of the conference, beating Denver on the road, 80-69. Sasquatch scored just 11, but he had help. Pedro Duran had 15 with eight boards. John Waldman scored 12, Joe Bethune put up 11 off the bench.


"We have, perhaps, more experience than anyone here," said Aggie coach Ralph Musselman. "Seven guys have started many games for us. It seems like everyone on our roster has at least ten games in. Seven of our guys have been in the program for three years, at least. When you're around each other that long, you're bound to gain chemistry. They know where they are. It starts with 'Quatch, but everyone knows who is going to be where.


"With this outfit, it's a matter of hitting shots. That is not something we're particularly good at."


The Aggies are 122nd in field goal percentage. They've relied on the defense, which is among the worst in points allowed, but fourth in the conference in field goal percentage against. A lot of that comes from the thirty-point loss to Utah. Aside from that, they've been stingy.


Meanwhile, Utah State, for all of their stutters and failures to sustain success, find themselves tied atop the conference, after holding on in the final minute to beat Wyoming, 50-49. The loss kept the Cowboys winless, at 0-6. The win makes this a whole new conference.


Going into publication, this is the outlook:


On Saturday (2.16), Utah travels to Utah State in the key game. On Monday, Denver travels to Utah. It is possible that the fate of the Utes will be determined in these two games. Or, it will be determined that nothing will be determined. Look at how the first go-round of games went.


There is a lot of basketball to be played in the season inside. With just one place at the table, these teams will do what it takes to get in the chair. On the final day of the season, when Utah State travels to Utah, BYU plays Wyoming, Denver goes to Montana, and New Mexico heads to Coloraod A&M, chances are that nothing will be settled.


We'll have to wait for the snow to melt, and the dust to clear.


---


The List
Finalizing the list for major awards


There is a month to go before the tournaments get announced, and plenty of action between now and mid-March. However, the major awards should begin to be investigated.


Let's take a look.


National Player of the Year


Elijah Davis, SG, Clemson. Davis is the frontrunner for the award, in part for his play, and in part for leading a Clemson team expected to go nowhere towards a NCAA berth, while generally finding defenses geared towards stopping him every single night. He is averaging a nation-high 23.3 points a game, a full two points higher than Harvard's Matthew Cordoba. He's also averaging 7.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He's shooting 52% from the field, 81% from the line, despite facing those defense that are geared to stop him. He has scored 2145 points in his career, heading into publication. This is not just purely a Player of the Year award, but a Career Achievement Award. Davis is one of the finest collegiate players ever, and will be fifty years from now.


John Hildebrand, PG, West Virginia. The senior star is averaging 14.2 points, 8.2 assists, and 4.7 rebounds a game. He is the top point man in the nation, and has taken on more of an offensive burden as the Mountaineers require his shoulders to carry them. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.28 is the third-best mark for anyone averaging over an assist a game; out of those two, Chet Terrazas has a bit of a poor man's Hildebrand going on. Normand Herbert of Kansas State doesn't have the numbers. Hildebrand should find himself a spot on the All-American team. And he could win this award yet, especially if Clemson collapses yet.


Sonny Freeman, SF, Dartmouth. You know about Freeman if you read an earlier issue of the Review. He is averaging 18.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists a game. He is also leading a young Dartmouth team to the top of the Ivy League. He has a solid counterpart in Charles Smith (16.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists), but it is Freeman who makes the Indians go. He deserves the acclaim that goes with this list.


Dennis Sawicki, SF, North Carolina. One of the nation's most talented players, Sawicki is averaging 19.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists a game. Sawicki has a talented roster around him, but he is still the leader of a Tar Heels team that has championship aspirations.


JC Quiles, PF, Southern California. Quiles is averaging a double-double, 11.0 points and 11.7 rebounds a game, helping Southern Cal take the next step to the national stage. Quiles is shooting 55% from the field.


National Freshman of the Year


Charles Witten, SG, Idaho. Witten is averaging a frosh-best 17.5 points a game, along with 3.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Witten is the only Vandal averaging over 8.5 points a game.


Mario Poe, C, Columbia. Poe, who was considered the favorite early on, is averaging 13.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks a game. Columbia has struggled, but Poe has gotten better as the season goes on.


Joshua Azure, PG, Oregon. Azure is putting up 11.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists a game. He leads all freshman in the latter, and is the only player averaging at least ten points, three rebounds, and three assists a game.


Brent Burchell, PG, Michigan State. Burchell is putting up numbers somewhat similar to Azure. He's scoring more (13.1 ppg), but not quite as productive with rebounds (2.4) or assists (3.0). He is, however, averaging 1.4 steals per a gams, which is tied for third among freshman.


Kelley Kuehl, SG, San Francisco. Kuehl is putting up 12.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists a game, along with a freshman-leading 1.8 steals for the Dons. He can fill up a stat sheet, and is doing so for a team that has the largest profile on this list.


Coach of the Year


Saul Bray, Seattle. The Chieftains are 26-3 under Bray, who is in his first year after being Washington's top assistant. His defensive approach has paid dividends, as the Chieftains, who start four juniors and one sophomore, are second in the nation in defense.


Shawn Rankins, Syracuse. No matter what you think of Syracuse and their flaky schedule (2-1 vs the top 50), you cannot deny Rankins' ability to motivate and to teach. Syracuse has the seventh-best defense, is first in the nation in field goal percentage against, and has a top-thirty offense.


Romeo Woods, Oklahoma A&M. Woods has led a resurgence in Stillwater, getting the Cowboys off to their best start ever. He has had to juggle many things, including a mostly offensive roster. While his specialty is in defense, he has put together a great offense, one that ranks near the top twenty in many categories.


Duane Lear, Georgia Tech. It isn't quite how you succeed, but what you do once you do so. The Yellow Jackets are 15-6 after a 25-win season with a veteran group. Not many thought they would be terribly good, but here they are.


Dave Johnson, Clemson. The Tigers are 17-6, when many thought they'd be .500, at best. He's doing it with one of the nation's best players, but what else? Johnson's ability to keep Clemson focused, and away from media criticisms, is one of the more outstanding jobs done this season.

NBR NCAA Tournament Projection



1 Indiana Kentucky 1
8 Dartmouth Murray State 8

5 California UCLA 5
4 Duquesne Arkansas 4
East South
3 Duke West Virginia 3
6 Michigan State Georgia Tech 6

7 Connecticut Niagara 7
2 Kansas NC State 2

1 Kansas State Washington 1
8 Toledo Texas Western 8

5 Dayton La Salle 5
4 Southern Cal Oklahoma A&M 4
Midwest West
3 Bradley San Francisco 3
6 Clemson Oregon State 6

7 St. John's Utah State 7
2 North Carolina Seattle 2

Next up is Washington, Stanford, and Idaho.

I expect Washington to get us back, and then we take out Idaho and Stanford.....

So what do you think happens???

It's a big game so we decide to play basketball and take down Washington for the 2nd time this year 89-56.

It is beyond irritating that we can destroy a top 5 team in Washington, and then fail to show up for the little sisters of the poor here. I don't even know how we did it. Washington is too good to let us shoot 64% on them, and we are too good to only shoot 30% at Washington State... Edmund Nelson who should now be entering the picture for Freshman of the year goes 15-22 and scores 34 points that game.

Next up is Stanford.... and if you haven't been following the theme we lose 86-77. If you would have told me we would have had 17 offensive rebounds and shot 47% before the game, I would have told you we would have blown them out.... However, we forgot to hold onto the ball and turn the ball over 25 times.... Tip of the cap to Vince as his squad picked our pockets 13 times to earn that victory.

Thankfully in the 3rd game we do beat Idaho, however, we were down 34-29 at half so we didn't exactly play well there either.

All of this has me worried as we are 18-7 on the year and 7-5 in the conf. The game has us on the bubble list and listed as in. I am not worried about that, as I still expect to make the NCAA tourney, but we somehow need to figure out how to put 2 halves of basketball together when we aren't playing Washington and California.

It certainly doesn't get any easier for us, as we have Oregon, Oregon State, California and Washington State left. We could easily go 3-1 or 0-4 with this group. Hoping the trend does not continue to happen as I would like a few more wins under our belt for tourney time and playing 2 halves would be nice to see for a few games.

Bracketology

This our second-to-last pre-tournament projection, with the regular season now measured in just weeks remaining. There are still dozens of teams with their postseason futures uncertain, and a number of conference races are too close to call. Particularly interesting is the upcoming Georgia Tech visit to Kentucky; both are still undefeated in SEC play. And as brilliantly noted by others at NBR, the balance of power in the MSAC changes daily, sometimes even more often than that. Pressure is high in many places this time of year; few can afford an off game now.


NCAA

1 -- Indiana(Big Ten), Kansas State(Big 7), Kansas, West Virginia(Southern)
2 -- Bradley(MVC), North Carolina State, Kentucky(SEC), Callifornia(PCC)
3 -- Washington, UCLA, San Francisco(WCC), Seattle
4 -- Duke, Oregon, North Carolina(ACC), Southern California
5 -- Michigan State, Southern Methodist, Virginia, Duquesne
6 -- Clemson, Georgia Tech, Holy Cross, Arkansas(SWC)
7 -- St. John's(Metro NY), Dartmouth(Ivy), Niagara(WYN3), Toledo(MAC)
8 -- Connecticut(Yankee), Texas Western(BIAA), Brigham Young(MSAC) , Murray State(Ohio Valley)

The biggest change we have to report is at the very top. For the first time this season, we do not list a Kansas program as the #1 overall seed, with Indiana nipping Kansas State by the slightest of margins. Both have put a modest distance between themselves and Kansas, but the defending champions still cannot be overlooked. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers continue to head a group of four competing for that final #1 spot.

At the bottom of the heap it's a yo-yo for some teams, notably those such as Clemson, Holy Cross, and Southern Methodist who did well enough to move back into the field. Going the other direction there is movement as well, particularly in the case of Michigan who was considered a solid bet to not just get in but win a game until about three weeks ago; now, they are nowhere to be found.


NIT

1 -- Saint Joseph's, Oklahoma A&M, La Salle, Iowa
2 -- Michigan, Dayton, Mississippi State, Notre Dame
3 -- Maryland, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, Stanford
4 -- Syracuse, Villanova, Idaho State, Illinois
5 -- Temple, Georgetown, Utah, San Jose State
6 -- Oklahoma City, Colorado, Oregon State, Utah State Agricultural Col
7 -- Santa Clara, Washington State, Vanderbilt, Baylor
8 -- Minnesota, Citadel, Iowa State, Virginia Tech

The National Basketball Report: February 26, 1957

The season is winding down, legacies are coming to an end, and the landscape is changing. We're looking forward to all of it. In this issue, we try to answer a few questions, and get you ready for what is to come.

NBR Top Twenty
1. Kansas State (22-1, LW 1)
2. Indiana (23-1, 2)
3. Kentucky (22-2, 3)
4. Kansas (21-4, 5)
5. North Carolina (22-4, 7)
6. Washington (22-4, 4)
7. Seattle (28-3, 8)
8. North Carolina State (19-7, 6)
9. San Francisco (23-3, 10)
10. Duke (19-6, 9)
11. Bradley (18-4, 11)
12. Duquesne (25-5, 13)
13. Arkansas (20-5, 14)
14. West Virginia (23-4, 15)
15. Dayton (22-5, 16)
16. Southern California (18-7, 12)
17. Clemson (19-7, NR)
18. Oklahoma A&M (19-4, 17)
19. La Salle (23-6, 19)
20. UCLA (18-5, 20)
Dropped Out: California (19)


A Little Q&A
A couple of questions were posed to us recently


Q: In the AP poll, NC State is ranked higher than North Carolina...this despite the Tar Heels being three games ahead of the Wolfpack in the ACC standings. How much disrespect should North Carolina feel?


Not too much disrespect. NC State is 13-7 against the top fifty. North Carolina is 7-3. The Wolfpack's losses are to Bradley, at Kansas (by six), Duke (13), at Clemson, North Carolina, to Kansas State (by one), and at home to Clemson (by two). North Carolina has losses to Oklahoma City, Oregon, Boston College, and Duke. The BC loss was an ugly one, and frankly, Oklahoma City was not much better. UNC is all but assured of a top-two seed in the NCAA, so I wouldn't worry too much if we were them. Besides, in our poll, North Carolina is ranked higher than NC State. The question is about the Absolutely Preposterous Poll.


Q: Who is the kid from Harvard that is among the scoring leaders?


That would be Matthew Cordoba, a 6'2 scoring machine out of New Haven. This year, he is averaging 22.1 points a game, along with 4.3 rebounds. He has 1,008 points for his career, and will likely set several scoring records in the Ivy, and perhaps nationally, by the time he's done. The single-season scoring record in-conference is 542, set by Columbia's Chris Telles in 1954-55. Cordoba has five games to go, and 508 points on the season. In all likelihood, that record will be his by season's end.


The scouting report on him says he is an expert scorer inside, which is interesting for someone who is "just" six-foot-two. He also has a reliable jump shot (43% shooting) and a capable free throw shot (72%). His shooting is up from 38% a year ago, and if he gets to 50% or so, he'll be at nearly 28 points a game. His turnovers are down from a year ago, though they're still higher than his coaches would like.


That said, he is definitely one to watch for the record books. With that on our mind...


Q: What are the most likely records to fall this year?


Scoring Records: Nationally, none, now. Elijah Davis has 2209 points for his career, nearly five hundred more than the previous holder, Maryland's George Dawkins. He likely won't get to his single-season mark of 759, set last year.


Rebounding: Brady Poe of Siena is now the record-holder, with 1172 in his career. Alvin McKissick of Syracuse is second, at 1126. The single-season record of 397, set by Kentucky's Jerry Young back in 1953-54, is not threatened this year.


Assists: John Hildebrand, the wonderful magician of West Virginia, recently took the career record from former Indiana great Marcos Godfrey. Hildebrand is up to 755 dishes for his career. Godfrey, though, delievered 734 scores to others in just three years. Stephen Ferrari, of San Francisco, is at 719. He likely will not pass Hildebrand. Andrew Cosme of St. Joe's (715) and Utah great Robert Peeler (690) may get past Godfrey this year, too. The single-season record, set by Godfrey back in 1954-55, is 258. Hildebrand has a chance to break that, but WVU has to get far in the tournament. He's at 219 so far. USC's Freddie Nation, the nation's leader in assists (9.3 ppg), also has an opportunity. He has 233 so far this year, and the Trojans are expected to get into the postseason.


Steals: Duquesne's Chauncey Hinkley is the career leader, with 275. He leads Lane McClary of Duke by 28. McClary probably will not catch him. Hinkley will probably also bust his single-season total, set last year. He has 88 this season, ten off his seasonal mark.


Blocks: Wisconsin's Freddie Yan has 320 after upping his block rate to 5.4/game this year. He leads McKissick by 22. The former leader, Jason McKnight of Navy, had 293. McKissick probably will not catch Yan, but he could see postseason action. If Syracuse makes a good run in the NIT, he could become the leader. Yan is six blocks off the single-season record, held by former NC State big man Angelo Parham, back in 1954-55. That record, barring some catastophe, will fall this year.


The Stretch Run
Your guide to the rest of the regular season


As we gear up for the very end of the regular season, the question begs...what is there to watch? What races are the best for the casual fan? Are there any players we should be specifically interested in? What are the toughest tickets over the next month? Will the questions ever end?


Well, we're here to answer all of that. So, without further ado, this is the End-of-Season Primer.


ACC


Games To Watch


2.27: Duke (19-6) at North Carolina (22-4). Duke is two games behind North Carolina. They probably won't jump seed on NC State, who looks to be assured a 1 or 2 seed, depending on the ACC Tournament. But they *can* jump the Heels. And keep themselves from falling into the bubble conversation (something Duke is closer to than anyone realizes). This will also be Lane McClary and Jonathan Fleenor's last trip to Chapel Hill. The two have had storied careers for the Blue Devils. They should be applauded by their chief rival.


3.2: NC State (19-7) at North Carolina (22.4). Anyone who needs to know why this is here is dense.


3.2: Clemson (19-7) at Maryland (16-10). The Tigers are the feel-good story of the nation, and are incredibly close to an NCAA berth nobody thought was possible back in November. Maryland, however, has NCAA plans of their own. A win over the Tigers alone won't help them achieve it, but it will help.


3.6: North Carolina at Maryland. This, combined with a Clemson win, could give Maryland a much better resume. North Carolina could be wrapping up a league title with a win here. Or it could be exposing itself to chaos if they lose.


3.9: North Carolina at Clemson. We know, all of these games are centered around a small subset of ACC teams. But North Carolina has a very difficult closing schedule. This will be Elijah Davis' last home game. And Clemson could be fighting for their tournament lives in this one. This has all the makings of one heck of a story. You know we'll have a reporter or two there.


Big 7


3.2: Kansas (21-4) at Kansas State (22-1). The Powers of Oz meet in Manhattan. This is the last high-profile home game for the 53 Boys, the superclass of Billy Jacob, David Gunter, Tommy Fritts and Erich Walton. For Luis Horne, Alphonse Howard, and Loren Brown, this is the last of these games...unless they meet in the NCAA Tournament, of course. We've been waiting for that for years.


Big Ten


3.2: Ohio State (16-7) at Illinois (17-6). This may be a play-in game, especially for Illinois. Ohio State is considered to be in the NCAA by the Absolutely Preposterous board...we have our doubts. But if the Fighting Illini lose, their chances will be slim to none.


3.6: Michigan State (16-6) at Michigan (12-11). The Wolverines are disappointed in their year (honestly, we told you this, in the beginning of the season). But they have a chance to spoil Michigan State's season with an upset. The Spartans will be in the NCAA if they win out. This is the one we think they can, and will, lose. Consider Sparty spoiled by the Wolverine.


3.16: Indiana (23-1) at Illinois. The Hoosiers are 50-0 in Big Ten games going into publication...14-0 the last three years, and 8-0 this year. This, most likely, is the biggest hurdle between four straight undefeated conference seasons. Can you imagine what Champaign would look like if the Illini got the first Hoosier loss in Big Ten play, especially on the eve of the tournament bracket announcement? The committee may have to wait on this result.


3.16: Ohio State at Michigan State. If they survive all other tests...this is a play-in game. Winner gets a NCAA bid. The loser is shuffled off to the NIT. Guaranteed.


Border Conference


3.2: Arizona (12-12) at Arizona State (10-13). With this conference so tight and up for grabs, Arizona plays their first of two against the Sun Devils. They also get a trip to Texas Western, before getting the Devils again at home. They could put a major tiebreaker together by beating the Sun Devils here. And put the pressure on Texas Western. The Miners have lost to the Sun Devils.


3.9: Arizona at Texas Western (12-11). If Arizona dispatches Arizona State, this might be for the conference. And this could be the moment for junior star guards Silvio Flores and Robert Williams to shine. This is a classic backcourt vs frontcourt strength battle, and we're looking forward to see who comes through.


3.16: Arizona State at Texas Western: Of course, if things shake out differently...say, Arizona State beats Arizona twice, and Arizona knocks off the Miners...this would be for the league crown.


Ivy Group


3.2: Columbia (15-10) at Dartmouth (14-9). The Indians have a three-game lead on Penn, and a three-and-a-half game cushion on the Lions. If Columbia is to drag themselves back into this, they MUST win this game.


3.2: Pennsylvania (11-13) at Princeton (12-13). Of course, the Quakers, a surprise entrant into this race after a ten-game losing streak early this year, need to win this to close any gap between them and Dartmouth. Princeton, who has fallen on hard times in conference play, can spoil the Quakers' year here.


3.4: Dartmouth at Pennsylvania. If Columbia and Penn win the aforementioned games, this could get the Quakers to within a game of the conference lead. Think Philadelphia wouldn't be ready for this game, if that were the case? This team will definitely be fun to watch next season...they're already pretty fun to watch now.


3.9: Dartmouth at Harvard (13-10). Matthew Cordoba, the nation's second-leading scorer, is only a sophomore. And he already has a thousand points, gained as part of a thirty-point output in the Crimson's 69-53 win over Harvard. The first he faced off with Sonny Freeman, he won the scoring battle, 22-18...but Freeman, and Charles Smith (18 apiece) won the game. Now, the game shifts to Cambridge. Can Cordoba even the score? Can Harvard continue a NIT run?


Metro


3.2: St. John's (18-7) at NYU (12-16). This is where the Johnnies clinch their fourth-straight Metro title. Then, they can start trying to move up in seed. Note...if NYU manages to beat St. John's, and Fordham (12-16) beats Brooklyn (7-19), there would be a three-way tie for first, where each of the three teams--St. John's, NYU, and Fordham--would hold a tie-breaker over the other. This has, very much, a trainwreck feel to the ending of the Metro.


Mid-American


3.2: Marshall (13-11) at Bowling Green State (9-14). Toledo clinches the conference if they win out and Marshall loses a game. Marshall has four conference games left; Toledo has just two. The play-in games start now for the Thundering Herd, with this trip to Bowling Green. They beat BGS 77-50 at home a month ago; however, the Falcons have won two in a row, both on the road, and may have a third if they beat Kent State before the Marshall game.


3.9: Toledo (14-12) at Western Michigan (3-21): If Marshall drops a game, expect Toledo to clinch here. If not, it'll especially be 3.16 against Bowling Green State.


Missouri Valley


3.9: Bradley (18-4) at Oklahoma A&M (19-4). Assuming these two continue their current trends, this will be for the conference title. Barring any unforseen collapses, both will make the NCAA Tournament. But seed, and region, are important. The winner of the conference can, and most likely will, receive a 3-seed. That will keep them away from a top seed until the Elite Eight. The winner will also play in the Midwest, while the loser could be sent to the West, in a tradeoff with the PCC.


Mountain State


3.2: Brigham Young (11-14) at Denver (15-10). It starts here, with the two conference kingpins facing off for, at least in BYU's case, sole possession of first place in the conference. This is something nobody has been able to grab a hold of this year, controlling your own destiny. The Cougars can do that with a win in Denver. If they fail, though, it likely creates a three-way standoff with Colorado A&M being added to the mix. That's good, because...


3.4: Colorado A&M (13-11) at Utah State (12-12). The Aggies need help. They can find it here, by knocking off one of the teams that stands in their way of a championship many thought they'd run away with in November.


3.9: Colorado A&M at Brigham Young. The dance continues, just with different partners.


3.11: Denver at Colorado A&M: Do-se-do...


3.11: Brigham Young at Utah (14-9). Not many have discussed the Utes. However, if chaos breaks this conference down, the Utes, and Utah State, all have shots, even with four losses. If the Cougars fall to either Denver or A&M, this would, in all likelihood, pull Utah even, and create complete havoc that even the finest of statistician would have trouble deciphering.


3.16: Utah State at Utah. If that chaos happens, this will serve to knock out at least one team. Think an in-state rivalry isn't heated enough? Stick them in Utah, in the still of winter (the season runs until mid-May), and tell them one playoff bid is on the line. That'll angry up the blood that didn't need to be angered up any more as it is.


3.16: BYU at Wyoming (7-17). Watch BYU get to this point a game up on everyone, and fall to Wyoming. That is the most fitting way to end this Mountain State season.


OVC: While there is intrigue atop the table, where Murray State (20-8, 8-1) holds a half-game edge on Tennessee Tech (10-16, 7-1), this won't be decided until the conference tournament.


Pacific Coast


2.28: UCLA (18-5) at Oregon (18-6): All of these will have a familiar theme. All seem like knockout games, Instead of the conference being viewed as strong because they are tough, top-to-bottom, they are eating themselves alive. As they accumulate victories and losses against one another, teams like Michigan State and Clemson, while being of inferior quality, are getting higher profiles because, well, gee, they keep winning. UCLA, in beating Oregon, can stay with Cal for the Southern Division ead.


3:2: California (17-7) at Washington (22-4): This is the rare game that will not involve teams trying to get into the postseason. Rather, it will involve two national heavyweights (regular season heavyweights, anyway) who are jockeying for NCAA position. In Washington's case, that means a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. For Cal, they are likely playing for a #2, probably a #3 seed. Regardless, whoever wins the PCC title will be viewed very strongly going into the vetting process. This one looms large for both teams.


3.2: Oregon(18-6) at Southern Cal (18-7). There are whispers in some circles that Southern Cal is no longer a lock for the NCAA Tournament. We agree that they have been on the back end of a downward trend; however, we still have them firmly into the big show in a month. That said...it's a month away. Much can happen to this team between now and then. Oregon is scuffling a little bit, despite winning three of four. They ave 4-4 since they last played the Trojans, back on the 31st of January. That was in Eugene. Now they have to come to Glendale and face one of the top post players in the country in JC Quiles. They'll have to do it without their own top postman, Kenny Foster, who is out for the next two and a half weeks with an injury. Good luck, Quackers.


3.5: Oregon State (16-9) at Southern Cal (18-7). The Beavers really are fighting for their NCAA lives. They are currently on the outside looking in. Beating the Trojans on the road could give them a temporary spot at the table...perhaps at the expense of the team hosting them.


3.5: Washington at Oregon: Things don't get easy in this conference, do they?


3.9: Washington at UCLA. Washington could very well go from penthouse to outhouse in this conference. There are three very possible losses sitting right there for the Huskies. UCLA is tough at home, and they're a team that could be jockeying for position, or jockeying to sit at the NCAA table, rather than with the NIT.


3.9: Oregon at Oregon State. Civil War on the hardwood, potentially for an at-large bid. Does this get any better?


3.9: Southern Cal at Cal. This may be the single greatest day NCAA basketball has had since it resumed play four years ago. Cal, especially if they fall to Washington, will be hearing critics left and right. The Trojans are already hearing them. We get the feeling that this is a game where both teams will assert themselves, and dish out a classic for all who are fortunate enough to view it.


3.12: UCLA at Idaho (9-14). Upset alert.


3.14: Oregon State at Washington. This is Washington's final attempt to show the NCAA Committee they are worthy of a top seed. It may be Oregon State's do-or-die attempt at a bid. Desperation brings about grace. We'll see a lot of grace in Seattle on this night.


3.16: UCLA at Oregon State. This could settle anything from seeding to inclusion. All we know is, this game will mean something.


Southeastern


3.5: Georgia Tech (19-6) at Kentucky (22-2). Both are 9-0 in the conference at publication. Both will presumably be 10-0 when they face off in Lexington. The Yellow Jackets are a surprise much in the way Clemson is; not much was expected from them, and here they are. Chalk that up to an unorthodox style (we've talked about it in the past) that forces teams to play in a manner of which they are unfamiliar. Kentucky simply has ballplayers, and good ones at that. Georgia Tech will not be knocked from a bid here; however, they can definitely make a name for themselves with an upset on the road.


3.12: Mississippi State (15-9) at Tulane (14-11). This has more NIT implications than NCAA, but it does pit two good teams who have disappointed some this year. That said, it does have two of the more electric players in the nation, Eusebio Williams of Tulane and Mississippi State's Douglas Lapierre, going against one another at the point guard spot. The best part? They're juniors.


Southern: West Virginia has clinched the top seed in the conference tournament. Virginia Tech is capable of making a NCAA run, but it'll have to come from winning the bid outright.


Southwestern


3.2: Arkansas (20-5) at Baylor (17-6). The conference is no sure thing for the Razorbacks, who have sat in our ranking all season. Even the Absolutely Preposterous has recognized their talent, and have kept them in the top twenty all season long. But this trip to Baylor is a major hurdle. Southern Methodist is breathing down their neck, sitting one game behind at publication time. Baylor is two back, at 5-3 in the conference. The Bears are playing for a NIT bid, but the NCAA bid is not cinched here yet. They are not in control of their destiny, but the Bears, behind a solid defense and admittedly ugly basketball, will have a say in matters within the conference.


West Coast: San Francisco (23-3, 8-0) has this conference sewn up. San Jose State is playing for NIT inclusion.


2.28: San Francisco (23-3) at San Jose State (16-8). What better way to get on the NIT's radar than by upsetting the conference kingpin? SJSU is three and a half games behind the Dons, but no matter. They're playing for the postseason. Whether or not they can handle the overwhelming talent of San Francisco is another story.


3.14: Santa Clara (9-14) at San Francisco. This is meaningful because it is Stephen Ferrari's final home game as a Don. Anyone who has had a chance to see him will tell you how fortunate they were to do so. If you're able, get a ticket and witness his farewell.


Western New York Three


3.2: Niagara (13-12) at St. Bonaventure (10-15). This figures to be a one-horse race, but if the Bonnies want to make this interesting, they'll score the win here. It is the only chance they have at denying Curt To a fourth NCAA trip in his four years.


Yankee


3.2: Maine (8-17) at New Hampshire (14-12). This is a knockout game; the winner will be the primary contender to Connecticut, while the loser will sit two back without a tiebreaker. That is, unless...


3.2: Connecticut (13-10) at Rhode Island (5-19). ....there's an upset of the Huskies. Connecticut has always finished strong, but this team has been bumpier than most Husky groups. The Rams could be prime to spring one here.


3.6: New Hampshire at Connecticut. This will, in all likelihood, be for the conference championship. If Connecticut wins, they will have a substantial edge heading into their home-and-home with Vermont. If New Hampshire wins, they would force a tie (assuming both teams win out).

NBR NCAA Tournament Projection



1 Indiana Kentucky 1
8 Connecticut Murray State 8

5 La Salle Clemson 5
4 West Virginia Arkansas 4
East South
3 Duquesne Bradley 3
6 California Georgia Tech 6

7 Dartmouth Niagara 7
2 NC State North Carolina 2

1 Kansas State Kansas 1
8 Toledo Texas Western 8

5 UCLA Oklahoma A&M 5
4 Dayton Southern Cal 4
Midwest West
3 Duke San Francisco 3
6 Oegon 6

7 BYU St. John's 7
2 Seattle Washington 2

Our current rank is 20th in the nation.
Our RPI is 5th

We have gone 10-5 vs the top 50
We have gone 3-1 vs 51-100
We have gone 5-1 vs 100-200

We are ranked 24th in the country in Rebounds
18th in the country in Assists
and 9th in the country in FG%

However, we suck at turnovers ranked 149th and points allowed at 109th.

So basically, in games that we shoot at high%, rebound and hold onto the ball just averagly we will win.

In games that we turn the ball over and shoot poorly we are gonna lose.

Not exactly a great combo but that's what we have.

In all honesty, that's my fault for recruiting the way that I have, however, in my defense I couldn't recruit kids that I wanted right away due to everybody in this conf having a leg up on me. I just needed to take the best that I could get and mush em together.

Hopefully with a tourney appearance this year, and a follow up one next, ill be able to be a bit more selective in terms of who I am recruiting. At the moment its kids that can score which is evident in our FG%, but we are paying for that with turnovers as these kids have no handles.

Gonna be a wild finish to the season. So many really good teams in the PCC this season - in this sim Washington gets three ranked teams in Cal, Oregon & UCLA plus a dangerous Washington State team. Some very good teams in this conference are going to get forced into the NIT.

Back to the scheduling thing, I use prestige as well for the same reason(to have a system). I try to schedule teams a bit higher than mine for a somewhat tough, but not unmanageable schedule. Well, this year that made Michigan's road very tough -- which was ok, I wanted it to be -- Tulane had a decent schedule, and a lot of Harvard's opponents ended up sucking even more than expected so they had an easier path than I wanted.

It ends up getting what I want, in general, more often than not, but there are still some outliers. I like that overall.

I'll offer an alternative approach to scheduling. My thinking is this: making the NCAAs is the goal. FBCB has demonstrated over many simulated seasons that your chances of qualifying fall off a cliff if you sport a record worse than about 19-11. The RPI--a win-loss and SOS-based metric--has a lot of influence over your standing in the eyes of the fictional bracket-makers. Finally, it appears that Top 50 wins receive additional consideration.

Balancing those 3 threads isn't perfectly done, but I've found that scheduling teams based on last season's W-L record is a workable approach. Assuming there are no huge drop-offs in your opponents' fortunes, you get some out-and-out great teams that may give you chances at Top 50 wins, some teams who will boost your RPI by virtue of a good record, and perhaps some filler for your own W-L record.

Other than that, for flavor's sake, I like scheduling teams that aren't too distant or schools where former assistants have take HC jobs. And I make sure to get home-and-homes whenever I go on the road (that makes it harder to schedule opponents more than ~20 points higher in prestige, but alas).

To finish up the regular season we have Oregon, Oregon State, Cal (Huge game there) and then Washington State.

Oregon worries me, We owe Oregon State one back from earlier on in the year, If we want to finish as conf Champs we need the Cal game and then some major help and then not to lose to Washington State again.

Basically we need to go 4-0, not an easy Task by any stretch of imagination, especially with these cast of characters we have in the PCC. Ive seen crazier though, and we do have Mr. Nelson running our show so I can be optomistic

The National Basketball Report: March 10, 1957

NBR Top Twenty
1. Kansas State (26-1, LW 1)
2. Indiana (27-1, 2)
3. Kentucky (25-2, 3)
4. Kansas (22-5, 4)
5. Seattle (28-3, 7)
6. North Carolina State (22-8, 8)
7. San Francisco (25-4, 9)
8. Washington (24-6, 6)
9. Bradley (22-4, 11)
10. Duquesne (26-5, 12)
11. North Carolina (23-7, 5)
12. Arkansas (24-5, 13)
13. Dayton (24-5, 15)
14. Duke (21-8, 10)
15. West Virginia (27-5, 14)
16. Southern Cal (20-8, 16)
17. Clemson (20-9, 17)
18. Oklahoma A&M (21-6, 18)
19. La Salle (23-6, 19)
20. UCLA (21-6, 20)
Dropped Out: Nobody


Well, we got what we wished for, didn't we?


We asked for the basketball heavens to open, and to deliver upon us intrigue until the final day of the season. We asked for the basketball gods to bring us a beautiul chaos. They most certainly delivered.


Look at the poll above. After the top four, only the bottom five stayed the same. There was tremendous fluctuation in the middle ten. It is amazing to see that this late in the season.


What we have before us may not happen again for years upon years. There are so many teams that still have a chance. There are many teams, those who have lost more than they have won, who are staring the postseason in the eye, and not blinking. There are conferences with more teams worthy of the NCAA than who will make it.


And then, there's the Big 7. No drama.


Party poopers.


Without further delay, we'll take you around the country once more, conference by conference, and see if we can sort out this beautiful chaos.


Atlantic Coast - We don't know anyone outside of South Carolina and Wake Forest rooting for South Carolina or Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament.


Many coaches are against the conference tournament concept, saying it reduces the impact of the regular season, and that it leads to teams getting a "cheapened shot" at a NCAA bid, costing worthy teams a selection. Athletic directors, who see the dollar signs, are not as easily persuaded. And George Washington, who shocked the Southern Conference by upsetting West Virginia from it's sixth-seed position, would easily disagree with the general sentiment.


The ACC, who has kept the conference tournament since the NCAA resumed play four years ago, has bucked the trend of regular season and done. It would not be a surprise if, after seeing how the conference does with its tournament, other conferences end up giving in to its fans, and its coffers, and adopts a tournament.


We digress back to the present. Top-seed North Carolina is stumbling, having lost three straight after knocking off heated rival Duke. Of course, losses to NC State, at Maryland, and at Clemson do not decree that the sky is falling. However, it does create some concern for the Tar Heels, who were fighting for a top seed in the NCAA before this losing streak started. Now, nothing but a tournament win will give them any chance. In all likelihood, the ACC champ, unless dominant, is in line for a #2 seed in a Kentucky-led South Region.


Clemson, in defeating the Heels, may have punched their ticket, regardless of what happened in the Southern. They had put themselves on the edge after their own three-game losing streak, which came at Duke, at Maryland, and against the Cavaliers, before rebounding against UNC. Of course, a win against Maryland in the first round of the conference tournament should complete that goal. Not only would it give them one more win over a quality opponent, it would prevent Maryland from potentially winning the tournament. Experts believe, and we agree, that if Virginia or Maryland win the ACC Tournament, it will take another spot from a team believed to be in. That could be Clemson, especially in the case of Maryland.


North Carolina, NC State, Duke and Clemson are ticketed for the NCAA, while Maryland and Virginia are likely NIT-bound. Maryland has the best case to get into the NCAA, but it will likely take an appearance in the final, meaning wins over Clemson and North Carolina. They are in the lump of teams, with La Salle, St. Joe's, Holy Cross, Georgetown, and Villanova, that are considered on the inner edge of the outside of the tournament bubble.


The tournament kicks off on Thursday.


Big 7 - The only issue here is if Kansas acquires the top seed in the West. Right now, we believe Kansas State has the Midwest #1, and Kentucky has the top seed in the South. These won't change, in our view. That leaves Indiana and Kansas, and potentially Seattle. NC State, currently ranked fifth in the Absolutely Preposterous poll, has to demolish the ACC Tournament to gain a top line. They are probably the second seed in the South.


As of now, we have Indiana heading to the East, which should be the easier of the two regions. Kansas would have to deal with Seattle, likely San Francisco, UCLA, Cal, or Southern Cal...or maybe even Washington, if UCLA wins the PCC and gains what would have been Washington's seed as a result.


Outside of that, the only question is whether or not Colorado receives a NIT bid. Losing to Villanova by 21 at home, then to SMU by 11, at home, and to 13-14 Nebraska, at home, doesn't gain our confidence. The Buffaloes wrap up with Kansas State at home on Saturday. How will that go?


Big Ten - Indiana has a top seed, likely in the East. If they are the #2 in the Midwest, in a flip of last year, we'd consider legislation against the tournament committee. Putting the top two teams in the nation against one another in the same region twice in a row was ludicrous enough. The committee is brazen (re: stupid) enough to do it. We're hoping history does not repeat itself thrice.


So now, the question is, can the Big Ten get three bids? Illinois and Michigan State are firmly on a bubble that may have burst when George Washington claimed the Southern. Michigan State was considered to be the final team in the field. Their SOS may have held them back. The same can be said about Oklahoma A&M, so you can debate the merits of either being included. Sparty has absolutely zero quality wins out of conference. The best you can say about Michigan State's schedule is they lost at Dayton...by thirty-two, and had the good fortune of Denver being better than advertised. They also lost to St. John's. The best team they've beaten in their OOC slate is Marquette, who is 16-13. Not getting a home game against Illinois is helpful. Honestly, in review, the case for Sparty being in the NIT is much stronger than being in the NCAA. They are a team that preyed on weaker teams, and could not beat teams considered even with them, or stronger...or even slightly weaker.


That leaves Illinois. They are in the same boat, really. They beat BYU, who while winning their conference, are still under .500. They have an admirable loss against NC State, but lost at Stanford. They almost won in Lawrence against Kansas, and own a win over Holy Cross when the Crusaders were struggling. This now looks worse for Holy Cross than it looks better for Illinois. In conference play, they were swept by a pretending Ohio State team. They did beat Michigan State.


You know what? Leave them both out. We don't know that we'd keep them in and yank a team like Oregon, Clemson, or Georgetown.


Border - Texas Western holds their own destiny. So does Arizona State. If the Sun Devils win out, that will include a sweep of the Miners. They face each other in the season finale on Saturday. So, if the Sun Devils get past Arizona in Tuscon (no easy task, given their rivaly), then go win at Western, they're in. If Texas Western beats Arizona State, they're in. It is that simple.


[b]Ivy{/b] - At publication, amazingly, Dartmouth sat tied atop the conference. The Indians started 9-0, but have lost three games in the last week, and have not looked good in any of them. It is not strange, of course, that they are tied. The Ivy is a tight league, and no team is truly that far and away better than anyone else.


However, it is who they are tied with that is the surprise. The Penn Quakers were 1-10 on Christmas day, after a 64-61 loss to St. Joe. Since then, they are 11-3, including an identical 9-3 record in the conference. They have split with Dartmouth, but, frankly, they feel like they are the ever-so-slight favorite at this point. They have won four in a row, have played excellent, including an 86-67 win over the Indians last week.


The path to travel is difficult for the Quakers, and puts them at a disadvantage. They have to go to Columbia (17-11), and then to Cornell (12-15) to close the year. The Indians have Brown (9-19) and Princeton (13-14), both at home.


That said, this is the Ivy, and anything can happen. Columbia has Penn and Harvard (16-10) at home. If Columbia wins both, and Dartmouth and Penn lose both, Columbia would get the bid, via having the best overall record. Cornell and Harvard are also tied in the conference, at 7-5...but Cornell cannot end up with the best record overall, and is thus eliminated from any chance at winning the conference. Harvard can, by the same scenario Columbia has: winning out, and Dartmouth and Penn losing out.


March 11 is a huge day across the national landscape...more on that in a bit. Here is the Ivy schedule.


Brown (9-19) at Dartmouth (14-12)
Princeton (13-14) at Yale (6-22)
Pennsylvania (14-13) at Columbia (17-11)
Harvard (16-10) at Cornell (12-15)

A lot will be decided on the 11th...specifically, whether anything needs to be decided on the 16th. Here is that schedule:


Princeton (13-14) at Dartmouth (14-12)
Brown (9-19) at Yale (6-22)
Harvard (16-10) at Columbia (17-11)
Pennsylvania (14-13) at Cornell (12-15)


Metro - St. John's is the pick, despite tying Fordham and NYU. They get the nod based on their overall record. This saves a major headache for the administration in the conference, as those three teams all went 1-1 against one another. The Johnnies are the only ones with a winning record, and thus, are the only ones to see postseason play.


Mid-American - Marshall controls their own destiny. They sit a half-game behind Toledo, and have two to play: at Western Michigan (3-24), and at Miami-Ohio (8-19). Both teams are 15-12 heading into the final week, though Marshall will get one more game.


If Marshall wins both games, they are in. They will have tied Toledo in the conference, at 10-2, but, and this is the confusing part...they went 2-0 against fourth-place Ohio, while Toledo went 1-1. When there are only two teams in a tiebreaker, it begins with head to head. They are 1-1 against one another. So then it goes to their records against the third-place team. In this case, that would be Bowling Green State; both are undefeated (Toledo's remaining game is against BGS, at home).


That brings us to fourth-place Ohio, in which Marshall gets the tiebreaker.


As long as either Marshall wins out, or wins one of two and Toledo loses their final game, which would tie the two once again, and set things in motion, this time BGS being the opponent that settles the score.


Missouri Valley - Bradley holds a two-game lead on Oklahoma A&M, and have swept the Aggies this season. The Braves are the MVC champions. Oklahoma A&M holds one of the final spots towards getting in. They have played some tough teams, including Texas Western, Colorado A&M, Dartmouth, Clemson (loss), St. Mary's (win on the road), Arkansas (win), SMU (win)...basically, we don't see how they aren't in. But this is the NCAA Tournament Committee, after all.


Mountain State - Oh, here we go.


Brigham Young (13-15, 9-3) controls its own fate. They win out, they're in. Denver, Utah State, and Utah are all chasing. from a game behind Colorado A&M, at 14-13, 7-5, needs a prayer...but they are not totally dead.


We mentioned that March 11th schedule, and how much it would shape the national landscape. Here is the second half of that schedule:


New Mexico (8-19) at Montana (8-19)
Denver (16-12) at Colorado A&M (14-13)
Brigham Young (13-15) at Utah (16-10)
Utah State Agricultural C (15-12) at Wyoming (8-19)


Three of those games are massive for the conference makeup. Denver and Colorado A&M could be in a playoff game, depending on what happens with BYU and Utah. Utah State has no cakewalk over Wyoming. The Aggies beat them, 50-49, at home earlier this season.


So, let's say BYU loses to Utah, and Utah State and Denver hold serve. That would make a four-way tie atop the conference, at 9-4. Here is the March 16th schedule:


Denver (16-12) at Montana (8-19)
New Mexico (8-19) at Colorado A&M (14-13)
Utah State Agricultural C (15-12) at Utah (16-10)
Brigham Young (13-15) at Wyoming (8-19)


Utah would only control their fate to a point. If they win, BYU is eliminated. But Denver remains. If they win, and all three teams go to 10-4 (let's say BYU wins, just for this sake, Utah would get the nod, at 18-10, over Denver's 18-12. This is based on a three-way tie for record.


Let's say BYU loses, and falls in a tie for third with Utah State. Then it would be a case as to who, actually, comes in third:


If third is BYU, then Utah wins the conference (Denver is 0-2 vs BYU, Utah would be 2-0).
If third is USU, then Denver wins the conference (Denver is 2-0, Utah would be 1-1).


Let's say Utah State beats Utah, and Denver wins. Denver would get the nod, based on their 2-0 record over State. At least, that's how we see the information.


Phew.


Ohio Valley - Season complete. Murray State wins the bid.


Pacific Coast


Currently, UCLA (21-6, 10-4) and Cal (10-4, 19-8) have a half-game lead on Washington (24-6, 10-5). Southern Cal (20-8, 9-6) has an outside shot, but would need a Hail Mary to come through twice.


UCLA kicks things off with a trip to Idaho. The Vandals, who were 9-3 heading into conference play, are 0-14 in the conference. The chance they pull the upset is extremely nil. So, let's say UCLA gets that win, and goes to 11-4 heading into the final day.


UCLA: 11-4
Cal: 10-4
Washington: 10-5


March 14, Oregon State travels to Washington, while Cal goes to Washington State. The Cougars have swept UCLA this year, and have home wins over Southern Cal, Stanford, and Oregon State. So this is no easy trip for the Bears. UCLA has to win, though, because they went 0-2 against a presumptive third-place team in Washington, while UCLA went 2-0.


Okay, let's say they win, as does Washington at home.


UCLA: 11-4
Cal: 11-4
Washington: 11-5


UCLA would win the conference by winning at Oregon State. Cal would win only if UCLA loses and they beat Stanford at home. Washington would be eliminated in this scenario. In fact, the only way the Huskies can win is if UCLA loses out, and Cal drops into a tie, at least, with the Huskies. Then Washington would win the conference via their head-to-head record with Cal.


So, to sum up...


UCLA: Wins if they win out, or wins one of two, and Cal loses one of two
Cal: Wins only if they win out, and UCLA loses at least one
Washington: Wins only they win out, UCLA loses out, and Cal loses at least one of two


We're pretty sure we've got all of that.


As far as NCAA bids are concerned, we agree with the notion of Washington, UCLA, USC, Cal, and Oregon having bids. Oregon State played their way into the NIT with a 2-7 mark in their last nine, including getting crushed at home by the Ducks, and losing poorly to Washington State on the road.


Southeastern - Simply put, if Kentucky (25-2, 12-0) wins a game in their final two, they win the conference. If they lose out somehow, after a 12-0 start, and Georgia Tech (21-7, 11-1) wins out against Vandy and LSU, then the Yellow Jackets would get the nod. GA Tech cannot win the conference by tying Kentucky, due to the Wildcats' victory over the Jackets earlier this season.


Southern - George Washington (14-18, 6-8) shocked everyone when they upset West Virginia, 79-71, to win their way into the NCAA Tournament. The sixth-seeded Colonials were ranked earlier in the season after a 4-0 start, but lost six in a row, and could not string anything together. In fact, they had not won consecutive games since January 12.


Southwestern - If Arkansas (24-5, 10-1) beats TCU (12-15, 5-5) at home, they win the conference. Should they lose, they'll have to watch Southern Methodist play TCU two days later for the conference title. If Arkansas loses and SMU wins, the Mustangs, by virtue of a 2-0 record against TCU (and a 1-1 record vs TCU for the Razorbacks), would gain the conference. Arkansas may be hard-pressed to get in without the title; we have ranked them all year, but a loss to TCU would hurt considerably. And it is doubtful the committee will take two teams, especially when they have to take two from the Southern. This is a one-bid conference; Baylor and whoever loses out between these two are NIT-bound.


West Coast - San Francisco (25-4, 10-1) won the conference easily. Saint Mary's (17-11, 6-5) and San Jose State (16-11, 4-6) are destined for the NIT.


WNY3 - Niagara (16-12, 3-0) is in. Even if they lose to St. Bonaventure, the Purple Eagles have the better record. This one is done.


Yankee - The Connecticut Huskies (16-11, 7-2) made things interesting by losing at Vermont (13-15, 5-4) yesterday. They'll have a week to stew on that, before getting the Catamounts again. If they win that, they win the conference.


The only caveat: they are 5-7 at home.


If Maine (10-17, 6-2) wins out, beating New Hampshire (14-15, 4-4) and Rhode Island (7-21, 2-7), and ties the Huskies at 8-2 in the conference, the Huskies would still win the conference, on the basis of the vote of their conference.


You read that right.


Connecticut and Maine would have lost to each other. Both would also have lost to Vermont, and to nobody else in the conference. So, all tiebreakers are out the window. This would then go to a vote of the league administration. Word is already out that they would vote for Connecticut, based on the prestige of the Huskies, over that of remote Maine. It is in the league by-laws, so Maine cannot argue or litigate.


So, Maine needs Vermont to sweep UConn, and then win out. It's the only way for the Black Bears. Talk about having the entire world against you...


Independents - Because there are so many, we saved them for last.


Seattle (28-3), Duquesne (26-5), and Dayton (24-5) are the only independents considered firmly in the tournament. In our view, La Salle (23-6) should only have a little worry. George Washington likely took Holy Cross' (20-9) spot. The Crusaders would be in over Georgetown due to their RPI, which is 14th. They played to a 14-9 schedule against the top 100, including a 6-8 mark against the top fifty. Georgetown is 10-3, but only 4-2 against the top fifty. They can get one more score if they beat Notre Dame, but that won't help them, either.


Gonzaga (19-9) has played nobody. Do not expect them.


St. Joe's RPI of 44 is too low. Same goes for Seton Hall (20-9, 62), Oklahoma City (19-10, 40) and so on. Syracuse, at 25-4 but a RPI of 80, is this year's Pitt...a team with a gaudy record but a bad schedule. Villanova is 21-7, which is too many losses for too crowded a field.


Especially, expect Seattle, Duquesne, Dayton, and maybe La Salle. After that, all of the teams mentioned here, you'll probably find in the NIT Media Guide.

NBR NCAA Tournament Projection




1 Indiana Kentucky 1
8 Niagara George Washington 8

5 Clemson Georgia Tech 5
4 Duquesne Duke 4
East South
3 Bradley West Virginia 3
6 St. John's Arkansas 6

7 Connecticut Murray State 7
2 Washington North Carolina 2

1 Kansas State Kansas 1
8 Toledo Texas Western 8

5 Southern Cal Oklahoma A&M 5
4 Dayton California 4
Midwest West
3 San Francisco UCLA 3
6 Oregon Illinois 6

7 Dartmouth Brigham Young 7
2 NC State Seattle 2

First game up is Oregon and we just pounce on a top 25 team here. Nelson is huge once again with 28 points as we win this one 80-55.

Second up is Oregon State- A much better game as we get revenge for the earlier loss, as we end up winning the game 72-64

Next up is the game we need to have with Cal, but it just wasn't meant to be this year, as we lose a heartbreaker 74-78. I can with confidence say that if we don't have 4 out of our 5 starters foul out of the game (with Nelson only playing 20 mins of it) we with that game just like we won the first one. We need to get a handle on that as we aren't going to go very far if that continues to happen. We certainly have had our fair share of foul troubles this year and going forward that is a concern for the NCAA tourney.

Last up is Washington State- and thankfully they don't play spoiler here. We beat them 85-57 as Nelson had 24 in that game.


So we don't win the conference. Freaking Cal does, and as a matter of fact we finish up 3rd in the South of the PCC (just tells you how strong the PCC is), but we are going dancing this year for the first time in the programs history, and ill take it.

Time to see who we get matched up with in the tourney