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Some good points. I should note that I'm speaking from a point of view where I'm honestly not affected that much by this recession and won't be affected outside of a total economic collapse. I'm not as panicked as most because my livelihood isn't in trouble due to the stupid moves both on Wall Street and in the Federal Government. I can certainly see how people who are more affected than I are willing to pull any panic rope available, regardless of whether it's a good idea or not. |
well said.
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Flasch: I hope you've never linked to Paul Krugman.
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nope.
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herd mentality. have more articles that suggest people are swarming to buy cars and other products because "lagging economy results in mega deals to be had!". if everyone thinks everyone else isn't concerned and this is one of those "this too shall pass" kind of things, then yeah, consumer confidence isn't eroded. like i said - we *need* a bigger car. not want. we don't want to wait for an accident to happen in our small car with a baby in the backseat. now, because of all the sky is falling i read and hear i've told myself "yeesh, this really isn't a good time to add $300+ to our monthly bills". we've now decided to wait for our tax refunds and my wife's bonus to put more money down on the car and replenish our emergency fund. the negative press i've encountered has made me scared to do any major purchase, only because i see other people are hunkering down and "learning to live within their means". even a hokey headline like "retail stores are doing their part to offset a stubborn economy with fantastic price cuts". or "Black Friday: In February???...Stores offer deep discounts to move inventory". these are more positive headlines that don't make me tremble in my bed cursing myself for considering buying a new car after we've paid our old one off. |
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this too. i'm in mutual funds and we got some nice bargains and i wish i had some spare loot to invest cuz i'd do it right now and buy while prices are ridiculously low. i only started my 401k in january cuz my company changed their policy to immediate vesting and matching contributions dollar for dollar. i'm essentially getting free money that's immediately mine, whatever i put in gets automatically doubled. all that plus investing while prices are low (and not having any retirement funds wiped out since i wasn't doing 401k during the "good years") means i'm coming out ahead. things are looking good for me, retirement-wise. but to get back to the point i'd be jumping in this market with my cock and nuggets in my hand saying "woo hoo muthafucka!" the whole time. great time to be buying if you got the spare cash, which people probably don't LOL. |
i do but Ive been getting buzz cuts the entire way down so Im certainly not looking to be the first one in. Im invested just not 100%.
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we don't invest, which means we don't get to get rich like dot com millionaires, but on the same hand we don't have to worry about our life savings disappearing. the ole "can't lose what you don't gamble" mantra.
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Ron Paul has some interesting insight on the stimulus bill. |
RE: Ron Paul
Sounds like the criticism of the Patriot Act. Nobody actually read it, they just voted for a vague idea. |
Here's a really good article from Reaganite economist Bruce Bartlett on the lessons of the New Deal and why massive spending and the resulting deficit is appropriate now.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/12/sti..._bartlett.html |
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cool JPhil. Interesting find. |
Pretty funny snippit here. Evidently, NY RINO Chuck Schumer doesn't like some of the fine print in the bill he supported, which he likely didn't even read before he voted to pass it.......
Schumer's Second Thoughts (Or: This Is Why Reading Legislation Before Voting Is a Good Idea) - Kathryn Jean Lopez - The Corner on National Review Online Quote:
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? |
Do you even check anything before you post it?
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My apologies. I meant to say a Republican conductor of the Unicorn Express. |
RNEINO?
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I think I'm going to need to pull out my Rosetta Stone Politics software to get a translation here. |
R not even INO
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We'll just agree to disagree. Schumer is a far cry from the senator he used to be from what I've seen. Some of his comments of late have left me scratching my head. |
For God's sake man, check Schumer's party affiliation.
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He's such a disgraceful Republican that he even calls himself a Democrat. |
Schumer is to Republican as MBBF is to _____.
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I was gonna say "when the hell did the Senior Senator from New York become a REPUBLICAN?" I know us Yankee Republicans are a bit to the center and all, but damn, that's a hell of a centrist shift.
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This last flurry of posts has been hilarious! :D
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LOL.....I crossed Specter for Schumer. I'll take the dunce cap for the day (or any other day). :D
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To the substance of the link, I find it hard to believe that anyone in Congress had really read the whole thing by the time they voted for it, which is indeed disconcerting. How long was the whole thing and how much time did they have?
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Arlen Specter :)
Great Senator. |
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FWIW.....the campaign promise from Obama was that any bill would be posted on the internet for 5 days before a vote. At face value, I think that's a fabulous idea since it allows many watchdogs groups and constituents on both sides to peruse the document and find the crap that has gone through in previous administrations before being noticed after it was enacted. The problem is that they didn't do that with this bill. If ANY bill needed 5 days to be reviewed with a fine tooth comb, it's a big bill like this. BTW......I'm sure there are a lot of Americans who didn't see it as an oversight and we're happy to see those people get cut out of jobs. I personally find that to be short-sighted, but I know that 'America First' thinking exists. |
I don't think the President has the authority to tell Congress how to handle it's business. I also don't care whether or not each member of Congress has read the entire bill, that's why they have staff members. Now it is a problem when they don't have a grasp of the substance, but I don't think it's reasonable or necessarily beneficial to have everyone read each bill word for word.
That said, I hope the five day or something similar happens as I would like bills to be made public in their final form before they're voted on. For me the problem isn't lack of knowledge during the House or Senate versions, it's the negotiated reconciliation bill that's often the problem. It's pretty easy to hide corruption in a bill that only has hours between printing and final passage. |
I don't believe that any amount of staffers could have been able to cohesively read and report on this bill in the amount of time they were given. Those who voted for it did so because they were told to, and those who voted against it did so because they were told to. It's not Obama's fault, but it certainly speaks to the naivete of those hoping for change from politics as usual.
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Pretty sure I agree with this. I think Reid and Pelosi have been the bullies thus far. Obama likely would love to keep his campaign promise, but the Congressional leaders are pushing back and he's backed down to keep in their good graces. The problem is that Obama is the one who's taking the hit when it happens. I really wish we would have had a similar waiting period in the Bush and Clinton administrations. There was a lot of crap that snuck through in the same way. |
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The Republicans are no better. Their "hold the line" and all-vote-no policy is pretty transparent. |
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Might want to include my entire quote next time. I said the exact same thing later in my quote. You were disagreeing with someone who agrees with you. :D |
Not disagreeing per se, actually, but elaborating my point about everyone just being "whipped" into shape on this.
And upon reading your quote I don't actually see anything stating that, but whatever. |
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I mentioned all the crap in the Clinton and Bush administrations. For the most part, that was Republicans passing that junk through. |
Nah, I'm talking about Cantor and their ilk and the united front they've thrown up. While I'm sure there's some actually ideological disagreement there, the manner they've gone about it is very transparent.
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Exactly. They're mirroring the minority Democrat stance from the first 6 years of the Bush Administration. They've just changed roles. |
Is all-vote-no the same as all-vote-yes-without-reading?
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I suppose that voting for something you haven't read is worse than voting against something you haven't read, but they're both symptomatic of the same thing.
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Close, except the latter is a good thing! |
Interesting news coming out of FoxNews. They had sued to get all of the documentation on the initial $350B bank bailout. Here's the info.......
FOX Business Sues Treasury for Failure to Respond to Freedom of Information Act Requests - FOXBusiness.com They are reporting this afternoon that they won the lawsuit. This means a lot of documents detailing where the first $350B went will now be available for public consumption. It'll be interesting to see what is found in the fine print. |
wow - that's actually awesome!
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Hopefully that includes documentation on those hired to manage the bailout funds and their compensation. |
agreed, probably the best thing Fox NEWS has ever done.
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I think this is great idea and shows Obama's steadfastness towards transparency: Recovery.gov
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Unfortunately, in the small print Tax Relief is actually $165 Billion out of the $787 Billion. When you take away the Infrastructure and Science, Protecting the Vulnerable, Education and Training, and Energy, you're left with $165 Billion in Tax Relief. Infrastructure and Science (how are those really related?) get 76% as much as Tax Relief. I've glanced through the 400-some pages and for so many words, there's little detail in where this is targeted. |
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More power to them. If they could actually report it with a semblance of fairness, they could be a valuable watchdog on this. (You'll have to forgive me if I think there's a 0% chance of that happening) SI |
Hoooo boy! Another spending bill!
House Democrats propose $410B spending bill - Yahoo! Finance I'm going to stop feeling bad about my credit card bill. |
youre right, MBBF, Ive given up. We should never spend, ever. Not on the war in Iraq/Afghanistan, not on anything really. Where were you over the last 8 years.
You mustve loved Clinton and his ability to balance the budget right? Anyways, Ill bet the bill has some stuff I agree with in it and some i dont but in case you havnt heard, were in a deflationary cycle....kind shoulda been up in arms when were inflating like crazy, right? |
Every time Flasch mentions the deflationary cycle we are supposedly in I laugh out loud. If the recession doesn't cost me my job, he just might.
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welp, if you look at the numbers that come out....we are. If the gov't had done nothing when this was seen at first I can't even imagine the carnage we would be seeing now.
Assets deflating prices deflating investments deflating shoot, Bernanke mentioned it today on the hill {shrug}. I guess we can just ignore it and eventually we will stabilize. At what standard of living, who knows. |
Ah for the halcyon days of 1999, when our biggest political issue was the aftermath of Clinton's acquittal in the Senate, our biggest economic issue was how to spend a $127 Billion budget surplus, and our biggest foreign policy issue was the completion of a NATO campaign against Yugoslavia in which NATO suffered zero combat deaths and successfully installed U.N. Peacekeepers.
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AND rescued a downed pilot behind enemy lines!
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Gene Hackman never did get enough credit for that.
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cuz Gossett Jr. hogs it all!
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We are creating inflation on a massive scale right now. This deflation is temporary (aka not a cycle). Prices on everything are going to go through the roof in the next 2-5 years. I'm betting salaries do not keep up. |
ok, im glad to see where we disagree on things. You think the money were printing will cause inflation while I think the money were printing is just plugging all the holes where the money that existed over the past 10 years has disappeared or vanished. This will IMO get us to level out where we can achieve some normalcy going forward. You see a massive see-saw (and could be right) while I see us trying to unfurl a parachute.
We disagree on where the baseline is where deflation or inflation occurs. My assumption is that baseline is much much lower than where yours is and while I think Im right, you could just as well be. |
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If you really have no clue, as do most of the rest of us, then don't cry deflation in every other post. You probably see it through the narrow view of the real estate market, some of us see it as a buyers market. We all know that the consequences are going to be really bad down the road but right now, I do not trust the federal govt (or its apologists like Bernanke) since they are basically throwing money at the problem without really fixing anything. |
I have a clue because ALL of the statistics, not just in real estate, add up to the conclusion I'm reaching. Apparently others see the same evidence and draw other conclusions, so be it, and they have their clue too. Me and Bernanke are in agreement on this.
Last time I checked this was a message board filled with posts and thoughts from a wide variety of people. If you dont want to see mine, put me on your ignore list or stop coming in these types of threads, cuz I like the debate and banter...im sorry if you dont. Doesnt mean Im wrong. |
I may disagree with Flasch on the whole deflation/inflation issue, but he is free to intepret what is going on how he sees it, and state his opinion. That is what I have done as well, put my interpretation out there, not guaranteed to be accurate.
I will say that I don't think I agree with Bernanke, who I feel is a stooge of the super rich banks (well the entire Fed is really). Also I don't know if I have shared my 'short categorization' of economics, but most of the people spreading the most wind out there these days fall amongst those I consider 'talking out their ass'. I'll admit I am closer to the Ron Paul side of the spectrum (if you could really interpret it as a linear relationship, although really there are many sub-categories and I'm sure Ron Paul would not lump himself in with me either :) ). In my opinion, the real statistics will show this is not going to be staving off deflation, its going to be the start of the biggest inflation jump in a few decades. But to follow my line of reasoning you need to completely distance yourself from the mish-mash of economists spouting random garbage for a long time now trying to support one pet agenda or another. By the commonly accepted (by the media) style of economics, you could very well accept the current state as a deflation crisis... especially with their emphasis on certain indicators while ignoring others (basically, they enjoy macroeconomic anomaly as the heart of their philosophy, while I'd be called a short-sighted microeconomist with unprovable theories). However, I find the Republicans suddenly growing a conscience on spending even more distasteful. True fiscal conservatives should have been screaming bloody murder during the entire Bush regime of economic terrorism (and obvious loot friendly policy). |
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True dat. :) |
I think we're in for some short term deflation, particularly where it's needed in the housing market, and then some crazy out of control inflation for a while. Well, out of control for us- not out of control for, say, the third world, but something unheard of here, like 10%.
That said, I'm no economist :D SI |
But you did stay in a Holiday Inn Express the other night, right?! :)
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Of course ;)
SI |
I'd agree on some of that. Deflation will happen in some sectors, where it probably needs to. Waaay too soon to say the entire economy as a whole will go into deflation (less inflation does NOT equal deflation).
And, yes, I do have an economics degree. A BA perhaps, but it's still something! :p |
I've got a BS in Computer Science so fat lot of economic good I am ;)
SI |
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No one seemed to have mind when the prices of oil and gasoline reduced substantially. |
I think we are confusing two things, too. There was this weird freakish inflation spike this past summer than can be almost solely traced to high gas prices. That's not a one time event, but it was an exceptional event. (I'd love for it to be a one time event but it's going to take some work on our energy policy)
SI |
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Could one also talk about the weird freakish inflation spike (albeit over a longer period) in the run-up of the housing markets (in some areas), in the stocks and market caps, as well as the oil speculation? |
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Asset deflation has as much of a psychological effect on people and investing as it does actual individual standards of living. What I mean, is that when people see this deflationary feedback loop they will horde their cash, cease investing in all kinds of things like home buying, car buying, etc etc. (which is not necessarily a bad thing if it can be plateaued or reversed somewhat) but what you'll get in an deflationary environment that leaps out of our hands is a massive problem and its much harder to reverse than inflation. Now if youre arguing that most people are trying to time the bottom than great I cant wait for the reversal however I'd say MOST people are getting wiped out of both their cash AND what cash they thought they had access too AND theyre losing faith in the system. This is creating an environment that dowsnt allow for a whole lot of inflation IMO on the other side of this. As I said earlier, no one is against Bucc's reduction in the inflation spikes however those bubbles popped as I called it (didnt make much $ on it though cuz I wussed out). A deflationary sucking is much harder to pop. |
Not that it'll do any good or you'll take him at his word or want to give him a shot but...
Bernanke confident can keep U.S. inflation at bay - Yahoo! Finance Quote:
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Umm, wouldn't that only be true if the house was purchased for the purpose of living in as a primary residence as opposed to an investment to be flipped sooner rather than later? In other words, living in a particular house is often irrelevant vs living in some other dwelling. I know relatively few people who looked at their current house as the former ("a house") rather than an asset and/or investment. Residences seem to be by & large considered temporary for most folks outside of those who are intentionally buying "their last house" as part of retirement or similar. |
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Yup. What many of those folks don't quite realize yet is that 'temporary' is going to be 20 years instead of the 5 they originally planned. I don't think that's a bad thing either. |
Could be if you're close to retirement and you want to cash out what is, for most people, their largest asset.
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I don't quite agree with Bernanke's faith in his fiscal policy tools. Not to mention the idea of raising interest rates stopping inflation is very naive in my opinion... much more likely to create a credit freeze or screw with growth (or set anyone still with a ticking time bomb ARM to explode). Granted having zero interest rates is dumb to the point of silliness, but ya, everything he said does not inspire one iota of confidence in me.
I'm just glad my spidey sense tingled on Monday and I offloaded a whole bunch of speculative plays before he gave off his little speech. Prices moving 10-25% in some sectors because of the latest hot air from the Fed, WTF? This market is not made for investors whatsoever, dumb luck speculation for the win! [edit]: yes I'm already calculating my next short, yay evil short monster. [/edit] |
Can someone please remind when President Obama's fiscal responsibility plans kick in or is perhaps the House just getting their licks in before that date?
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Bernanke didnt say raising rates was his only weapon to curb inflation. as a matter of fact he explicitly listed some of the other tools in their repertoire to combat such inflation if and when it comes on. I just hope that you're making your thesis on ALL the information. You may be right, Bernanke may be wrong, however, and Ill say it again, I AGREE with the others who say we avoided a major cataclysm in October WHICH (for the very first time) Bernanke actually stated such an opinion as well today. He said that inflation would curb at the end of last year. It did. Bernanke said oil prices would come down last year. they did. Now, he also said some shit that was off too so perhaps you can hang your hat on those BUT I'd argue that the precipice I saw, among other people in October, was dodged and now we deal with, hopefully a controlled deleveraging (which Im for) as opposed to an 'adverse feeback loop' or 'deflationary spiral' (which I am not for). |
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Obama seeks $634 billion for health care - White House- msnbc.com |
thats over 10 years though....
One thing in there I DO NOT like, at first blush is the raising of the tax rate on couples making over $250K....That means $125K/person and I am absolutely against that and cannot believe that that will fly at that rate or income level once the negotiations go through congress. At least I hope not. |
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Which is overwhelmingly what I've seen. |
I have seen otherwise...people scared stiff, paralyzed, and hording what's left.
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Reminds me of LBJ's Great Society and War on Poverty. We have thrown more money at the federal programs created to support these ideas than most nations on this planet will ever produce during their existance...and yet, damn it, nearly half a century later, we still have the same problems. |
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Let's just say I just don't see that at all. In fact, I'm not sure I've met anyone with this attitude. I see people saving more than they used to, but that's a good thing. |
Could be affected by geography, not so much line of work because I can discount that, but generally people of all lines of work, here in Jacksonville, Ive seen scared stiff and their idea of saving more, IMO, has crossed the line to hording.
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This was released on the 21st:
Inflation inches way into area economy in January | Jacksonville.com Quote:
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It seems y'all have stopped hording if you were doing so ;). |
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Or Nixon's War on Drugs or, more recently, Bush's War on Terror. Slap a "War on" to your pet cause, and it is almost a guarantee to get funded, since Americans can't stand the idea of losing a war, even if is against an indeterminate noun. |
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Yep. Yet they (the federal govt and the voters) don't learn from history. Flasch, you need to see different people. :) |
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Eep. Almost 5% inflation. I know it's only one month but that's bad SI |
it is only 1 month and much like Ive told other people (MBBF) you shouldnt look at only one facet to draw conclusions. Now should that continue for say a quarter I will agree with you and need to change my thoughts. That being said Jacksonville also has a higher unemployment rate than the state average, if Im not mistaken, gas prices definitely jumped up around here for January, etc. etc. etc.
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Average gas price up about 2.5 cents per gallon since one month ago. Still one of only three markets in Florida under $1.90/gal though. http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/FLmetro.asp And on the unemployment, Jax is actually under the state average not seasonally adjusted rate for Dec 08 (the latest available), 7.1 to 7.4 I didn't see the MSA seasonally adjusted figures in their release, only the state & national level on those that I could find. http://www.floridajobs.org/publicati...2001-23-09.pdf |
I noticed however no one else in this thread seems willing to be open minded. Not a single comment about Bernanke from anyone other than Sportsdino. Entrenchment anyone?
Perhaps it is my circle than....Ill have to do some anecdotal research wider than that in case it is just that that is skewing my vision. I dont think so however as Jobless claims hit their highest # since '82 (however not nearly as bad as '82) and no one thinks this is the top and continuing claims also hit a record while companies announce more impending layoffs. I still stand by my argument that impending inflation or a severe ratcheting up of it are not on the other side of this. So on the one hand Jon points out great stats to back his stance I show ones that back mine. Which will be right? Not sure. Fore example, I say Tarp 1 worked because we avoided what I thought was coming in the Fall of last year however, like MBBF would do, because we avoided the fall fall some are going to say, "see we didnt need Tarp." |
Maybe I'm just a novice, but how are we having major deflation when the prices of most things keep going up? In the last few months, my gas has gone up, my utility costs have gone up (despite actually keeping my thermostat at 63), and the price of groceries seems to go up with less food in the packages. I understand that house values are going down, but is do houses count as goods?
I'm obviously no economist, but I have yet to see falling prices in anything except houses and cars, 2 things with no immediate value. |
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Not much to say about him yet. I think it takes a lot longer time to judge a fed chairman than other positions. Saint Greenspan couldn't be touched for the longest time but now it turns out that maybe leaving the money supply open like an uncapped fire hydrant wasn't the greatest idea nor was relaxing every regulation and letting unfettered capitalism take its course as that only served those in power, not the greater good of the economy. SI |
And it isn't just Jacksonville, mind. The county showed a higher CPI than economists thought. In addition retail sales were higher than predicted for 2009 so far.
As for Bernanke, are we speaking of his thoughts on preventing inflation in the future? |
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And you bring up a very good point. If you subtract out housing, which is coming down from a massive bubble, the case for major deflation starts looking much less plausible. |
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that's just not true though, McD's is lowering prices on stuff, Subway is, Coke is, etc. Most places are running larger and more frequent sales. You see it all around outside of food and energy costs (which trickle into groceries, etc.). I just asked my roomie and she said, in her life, she would say overall prices are going down on 'stuff.' Totally a grain of salt but meaningful in that it isn't just my brain coming up with it. |
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Jacksonville is the county? Duval. If youre including St. Johns and such that's a wide net....not necessarily unimportant but a wider net than perhaps the stats are meant to show combined. |
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So because McDonalds is adding another tiny burger to their value meal, we are in deflation?? My coke costs the same in the stores, in fact, it's increased. All the vending machines have even increased about 25% in the past few months. I see "extras" with decreasing prices, like maybe some flat screens and other things that are superfluous, but in everything that counts, prices have gone up. Clothes (maybe the department stores are having more sales to boost revenues and business, but is that deflation?) are the same price. I just don't get the deflation talk. |
ok, I have to say, and it flies in the face of the inflation data above, that Im not seeing it (neither is my roomie). We are seeing prices dropping on most everything and yes, seeing companies unveil economized items at cheaper prices IS a DEFINITIVE commercial admittance to a deflationary environment, however temporary it may be or be expected to be.
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