He could have, but he didn't.

I agree. Who do you think?

In Neon Chaos's game, he had an Alpha Wolf who picked the other wolves and we went through a similar discussion that was very profitable...

Vote Mrs. Schmidty

I think Hoops would have drafted her. She showed she gets the game and played well last time for a first timer. She is also likely to get the benefit of the "She's new, I won't vote for her early in the game" (although obviously not from me).

And I think Hoops will be thinking outside of the box with his picks and go with the unexpected.

I think Sndvls or GoldenEagle are very good players who have been away for a while and would both be good choices for hoops to pick

I'm thinking two very good wolf players and two "nobody would think of them" players.

Another vanilla villager checking in (good way to get back into the game, I suppose)

I think it's highly likely that he picked Mrs. Schmidty or PackFanatic.

I also lumped these two together and I believe SnDvls and hoops have been wolves together and, having also been a wolf with SnDvls, I think it's likely hoops would have gone in that direction. Hence my vote.

I think it's unlikely that hoops picked either Alan, Lathum, or myself with the #1 pick. The question then becomes would Poli pick the three of us in his first grouping? I feel like the answer is yes.

Slight correction. Poli could pick two villagers. I think, therefore, that either Lathum or Alan is a villager for sure (as I know I am).

I don't know about that. I think it's a definite possibility that one of you guys was picked as the cunning wolf. Hoops knows that you guys could be scanned and "cleared" early in the game and would be a huge asset to the wolf side in a CoT.

I feel like that's a pretty rushed attempt to get all three of you cleared (perhaps yourself and another wolf, or yourself+two villagers).

Villager checking in. I agree that thinking about who hoops would have selected is a good idea. Seems like most first days are a crap shoot, so at least it gives us something to go on for our votes today

Somehow I knew that was coming BK.

From my previous discussions with cronin about the game, roles were indeed assigned to certain picks. So it wasn't pick the wolves and then give them roles it was Pick 1 would be role X. So the question is would that be a cunning wolf? If the answer is YES then I think you're right there and would suggest Lathum over Alan as Lathum always seems to be scanned early. If Pick 1 wasn't a cunning wolf, however, then I think my analysis stands.

I am a goody two shoes who is looking for a special friend. I enjoy long walks by the drainage slough, and candle lit dinners at the Lighthouse Mission. Fashion sense is very important to me, and I love to shop at the Salvation Army outlet store. I hope to someday own my own aluminum lean-to complete with a extra thick blue tarp.

If you feel like we could be a good fit, please place your name and number on the wall in stall number 6 at the Smokey Point Arco Station bathroom. I look forward to hearing from you.

Yeah there's not much you can do about that, but do notice that I went in a different direction with my vote.

Yes, please.

done

Schmidty lol, I see now why you were voted as the most fun person to play a game with

Thanks.

This was actually changed by request of the drafters.

Ahh. OK. I wasn't a fan of that anyway. I think then that Lathum and Alan are considerably less cleared then I'd hoped.

Please note that there is a HUGE advantage to us if we limit who we vote for as we essentially make it so that the cunning wolf would be the one doing the kill.

So were they then given random roles or did the drafters hand out roles after drafting?

Poli and I completed our picks first, assigned roles second.

And that is a very good point, BK.

10/4 :)

The latter - the players were drafted, then the GMs assigned roles.

Yep.

BK - that's a very good point that I think will go unnoticed largely in the rules.

But if we engage in 2nd level analysis, might hoops not go "oh well everyone will expect me to draft cunning wolf=lathum first, so maybe i should petition for it to be brutal wolf=lathum first, or else avoid lathum so the villagers off one of their own?"

oh - well given what was just posted as i was typing that - i guess the 2nd piece of it doesn't apply as much

I don't think Hoops would pick someone like myself, BK, Alan, etc... as the cunning, it just seems like such an obvious move.

but Hoops copuld have picked one of us just for that reason.

Haha is this a Qwikshot in-character special? Doesn't seem to relate directly to any of the roles...

Hoops said in another thread that Path12 was his 1st round pick...I'm leaning toward voting based on that comment...

Yes, and if I were poli, I would purposely NOT draft Lathum and make Hoops take him as a wolf with the last pick.

So for reasons I have stated, I think the two best choices for votes today are Lathum and Mrs. Schmidty.

I'm pretty sure that was just a joke. Or do you think Hoops would be that risky in a cover up move?

Lathum seems like too obvious of a choice for a wolf, but I didn't think about Poli forcing Hoops into it like this.

This post I feel is either intentionally or un-intentionally misleading. I ended up getting the role that I "campaigned" for via PM prior to the game and I have to guess that I wasn't purposely picked in a certain slot just to get that role. It seems obvious to me based on what I know is that the draft picks were made and then Poli/Hoops provided the list to Cronin of which players should be which roles as an independant action.

As far as setting myself up to be a night kill target for the wolves, whomever is the bodyguard doesn't really need to worry about it. I plan on fully revealing at deadline time and if the wolves choose to target me, then they pretty much just wasted a chance at getting someone they actively are looking for.

As for why I'm revealing on day 1.. well you'll just have to trust me that I felt this to be the best way to play my role. If you disagree, then lecture me after the game I guess. :) And no.. I'm not going to fake reveal on day 1 before hardly any votes are cast if I was a wolf.. I'm not that brave/dumb even.

As for whom do I think Hoops would have picked? I am pretty sure that Hoops knows this type of discussion would occur in this game. He ran a game as a GM before with this similar mechanic in it and this conversation happened there as well. I have to guess Hoops would have prepared himself the best as possible to not get caught with all of his eggs in one basket...

Thus with a 21 person game, I'll assume 4 or 5 wolves... I would assume he'd probably pick one veteran for a cunning wolf as has been discussed.. I would assume one newer player that Hoops was pretty excited about their play.. I would assume one under the radar type that would slide deep into the game while still being a solid player and I would assume one other veteran type that doesnt get scanned often and is not often considered as someone Hoops would pick.. (This type of veteran player pick I would consider players like Schmidty, DaddyTorgo, etc)

psst. Olie. path isn't playing.

It very well could be, but knowing hoops, it could be a switcheroo type play...I'll say this and then everyone will say "he wouldn't be that obvious"...that type of thing. I don't know. There isn't anything else to go on at this point, so why not go off of that?

Oh.. and in the time it took me to type that up while on my conference call, Cronin answered the Barkeep message for me..

sheesh.

Haha...

It was a joke because Path isnt playing in this game.

Alan - you can jump off the DT bandwagon - hoops didn't pick me. whether that's b/c poli picked me first or what i dunno, but i'm squarely on the village side.

as for your reveal - well you can't be the seer/fake seer i don't think -- you can't be a mason (penalty of death), could you be bodyguard maybe. could you be hunter...strong possibility

the whole fake-seer thing always bugs me, so i'm wondering if there's not more of a way to...control that and mitigate that

this is a pretty awesome thought.

you're poli. you know that lathum always draws scrutiny. rather than risk having him on your team, you essentially "force" the other team to draft him and hope that you have someone like kwhit on your team that makes this point and then your team gets an easy +1 advantage.

subject to change...yada yada...

VOTE LATHUM

Well, I didn't mention anything to the seers as I didn't want to tell them how to play the game.. But I assume if one wanted to know if they were the seer or fake seer, their best option would be to try to get an early scan in on someone they knew would be dead. They probably should ask Cronin what the action order is for this game since there is a 24 hour clock.. if they attempt to scan a lynch victim, does their scan get off before the lynch? (ie: would they get their results back before the guy dies or not?)

I don't mind if they both want to scan me.. I plan on revealing though at deadline and will either be dead or have no one contend my reveal though.. so if they want to both scan me and see if they can use that to figure out if they are the fake seer or not, they are more than welcome to as well.

I don't really have an argument for this except that considering my reputation I would be a solid Villager pick for a few reasons.

1. I'm usualy an early scan so it would get a villager cleared early

2. I am usualy on the hot seat ( most times by my own doing) so the wolves very rarely night kill me. look back at all the games, I am very rarely killed by the wolves because they know I will usualy talk myself into a lynch

3. Someone has to be lynced, odds are it will be a villager so make me a vanilla villager in case I am lynched day 1.

lol, you jumped on that pretty fast...

dola- you are also hinting you are the seer, maybe setting up for a fake reveal?

Looking through the roles, I think the Duke (with a slight possibility of a hunter) is the only thing Alan could reveal with on day 1 and not be a bad play for the village. The bodyguard is the only way to keep the Seer, Spy, or Philosopher alive and the wolves would be gunning for any of those roles as it is.

He wouldn't know if he was successfully roled as the fool and I just can't believe he'd reveal as the seer so I ruled both of those out.

me hinting that i'm the seer? not at all. i simply think that kwhit's thought bears some serious considering. i don't really see how what i said hints that i'm the seer at all. i wouldn't have had a shot to scan anybody yet. and i'm just concerned about the seer/fake-seer dynamic and wondering out loud if anyone has any thoughts (out loud) to help the seer/fake-seer through that. just means that i'm a concerned villager. and i'm just bored at work - fired off a bunch of emails to the west coast and have to wait for people there to wake up and get to work before i can call on them.

I know speculating is fun, and you are more than welcome to do so.. but I promise I'll reveal at deadline either through death revealing my role or me saying so. :)

Currently trying to decide who to vote for today though. I was leaning towards Barkeep initially for what I felt was trying to mislead everyone a bit on a very critical way we look at how people might have been drafted which I knew to be false (thus the main reason I went ahead and decided to reveal). Now based on Cronin's comments I can assume barkeep's forcing my hand there was perhaps unintentional and he was trying to be as helpful as possible.

I agree with Lathum that DT's response so far to a few things seems to be a bit off to me.

hence the FAKE REVEAL!!!

remember DT's fake reveal in BK's small game? He thinks ahead, no reason to think he isn't dropping hints early to claim seer down the road.

off in what way?

I already gave my thoughts on some possible ways for the seer/fake seer to figure out which they are.

dude that was MASTERFUL. and then we got jobbed out of the win of a game we ought to have had locked-up.

how could i claim seer? i couldn't use a D1 vote or anything to claim seer - the seers haven't scanned yet (to my knowledge). simply because i'm discussing optimal seer-strategy for a seer/fake-seer game? that's pretty nebulous for you guys to jump all over me.

Your responses just feel forced.. to the point where if I speculate further I'm afraid that I won't know if either I am helping encourage people to either kill a good guy with a role or encouraging people to lynch a wolf here..

i know. and i'm sure that whoever they are, they appreciate it. was just trying to explain to Mr. Lathum my train-of-thought as far as bringing that subject up.

it could be the fact that you jumped all over me 11 minutes after KWhit first mentioned his thoughts and voted 28 hours before the first deadline.

I'm debating this idea. It could work, but with the villagers outnumbering the wolves by a lot, I'm assuming anyone the fake seer scans will be much more likely to come up villager.

you could easily on day 4 fake reveal as seer and say "look, I way making all these references to the seer on day 1 to leave hints!"

oh the first deadline isn't until tomorrow afternoon?

*shrug*

whatever...not like I can't unvote, and it's always to the village's benefit to get discussion moving and votes flowing around early.

and i think kwhit's idea has merit. i'm willing to come out and say that, particularly in a game where i'm allowed to unvote, there's no reason not to vote early and try to get discussion and defense going. maybe make D1 more useful.

if i was dropping hints i'd try to be a bit more subtle and obtuse than just discussing optimal seer-strategy in the game.

Here's my take: I started off thinking there was no point trying to get into hoops's head. He's going to be aware of all these angles everyone has mentioned, and will just draft whoever he feels like. So of course, I go to my fallback, and look at olie. Has she ever been a wolf? I'm thinking hoops might draft her just to see what she would be like as a wolf.

VOTE OLIEGIRL

why are you thinking about your defense so early?

It depends on how the fake seer works in this game.. Cronin said it was left unknown (only he , poli and hoops to know) how it works. If for instance they both scanned me, if one turned up good and one turned up bad, the one who scanned me as bad would then know that they are the fake seer.

The fake seer could always scan everyone reverse of what they really are (usually unlikely as after a few wolves, they would figure it out and then be just as good as a real seer).. a fake seer could always scan everyone as good (which would then leave it tough to determine if they are a fake seer for most of the game, but it also would prevent them from ever finding a wolf and revealing as seer though)... or a fake seer might just randomly give results (but cronin said there is no random in this game)..

So if I had to guess a fake seer likely is going to just scan everyone as good or everyone as bad .. if the former it probably wouldn't ever matter as only the real seer will ever find a wolf. If the latter, then they could find out pretty quickly from scanning me if they really wanted to.

Cronin, when you say wolves other than the cunning wolf can only night kill someone who has voted for them during the game, do you mean ever voted for at all, or just in the final vote talley?

ie: If I vote for playerA, then unvote and vote for PlayerB later and keep that as my final vote.. Does then either playerA or playerB have the ability to night kill me (assuming they both are wolves and neither are the cunning wolf)? Or only playerB?

Thanks!

not my defense lathum - the defenses of people who are put up for elimination (to use the Hell's Kitchen phrasing)

Only votes counted in the final tally will be significant. In your example, only player B or the cunning wolf would be able to kill you.

haha - duck and cover! Here comes the OlieRage!

Shades of PurdueBrad - "See I said 'see' 5 times in the past 3 days!!" :cool:

Here's the voting order:

wolf
2 villagers
wolf
4 villagers
wolf
8 villagers
wolf
2 villagers
wolf

There is a HUGE advantage for the villagers here. The fact that Hoops' pick is last, means that essentially, Poli got to pick Hoops' final wolf for him. Now, if I had the ability to do that, who would I choose? Someone who stands out for his wolfishness. Someone who maybe has "world's greatest wolf" listed under his name.

Guys, this is a no-brainer, strategically. I still think my thoughts on
MRs. Schmidty being a good pick for Hoops to make stand, but I think that the obvious choice for a day one vote is Lathum.

Unvote Mrs. Schmidty
Vote Lathum

Yeah, scanning everyone as good would make the most sense. Scanning everyone as a wolf would probably leave little point in having a fake seer in the first place.

Wouldn't the wolves need a night phase, then?

In my opinion, we have more information on a normal Day 1. I think that hoops picked 3 under the radar type players and one strong player to organize them and prevent mistakes. It is anyone's guess as to who the strong player is. It is going to be easier to take a guess at the three other players.

I doubt he picked complete and total noobs, but people who just fly under the radar. Do we even have any noobs in this game? I know I was not picked, so if you look at my player prototype, can you rule that out? I am a player who has played some in the past but this is my first game after a long layoff. Who else fits that bill?

I don't know several of the people playing. This is where I will start my research as to who could be a wolf. Who has that spreadsheet handy and updated?

villager checking in

This movement towards Lathum is very interesting. I think the idea that he would be picked and then made cunning wolf or Poli forcing hoops to pick him are both good ideas. I still think SnDvls is a likely pick, but...

Unvote Sndvls

Vote Lathum

:banghead:

I really have no argument except the one I made allready but at least your vote was based on an original thought.

3 votes 27 hours before the deadline.


nice

I am not at all surprised by this...still not sure why Pass always jumps to me though. :rant: :banghead: :rant: :banghead:

I was a wolf in ONE game - ONE! And I sucked at it!!!! I would love to be a wolf again, but I'm not one in this game. I'm not the seer either, I'm just a villager.

LOL...didn't even see this until after I responded to Pass.

OlieRage...I like that, might have to use that on my son and husband sometime! :D

We need avatars so you can put a little hulk icon next to your name.

Indeed - it seems a bit forced. It also seems a bit obvious for Lathum to be a wolf unless Poli really did try to stick it to Hoops. It just feels like that's a low percentage chance. I know with 27 hours to go I'd rather see everyone check in and make a few comments first...

I am not sure if the jumping on the Lathum bandwagon is justified. Would AE/Poli be smart enough to do that? The draft went pretty quick from our understanding. Did he really have that much time to ponder the situation? The draft information is beneficial, but I don't think we can assume that it was done under optimal strategic conditions.

im gonna go a different way with my analysis. and then go back to silence!

who woudl be the least likely to get picked? me or Schmidty or PB (based on recent games) so one of us was around at 21 and got stuck on the wolf team! (which could have been thought of, at which point my analysis is usless).

now Im a vilegar, PB (if hes playing) is usualy good, just in a rut. so that leaves us with

vote schmidty!

I just thought it was really funny because you were complaining last game about Pass going after you all the time. ;)

Barkeep -- I know from past games that SunnyD is a very strong wolf, and I can't remember how hoops factored into those (GM? villager? fellow wolf?) but I'm sure he's quite aware of that as well (obviously). I don't think SunnyD is a bad choice at all.

While I am perfectly happy with my vote, I don't want to see a huge bandwagon onto lathum at this point --- i want to see multiple options from across the spectrum so that we, in essence, force people to pick and put out votes that are meaningful and can be used later in the game maybe.

Make it 4 votes, I can see you badgering people already and I'd rather eliminate that before it degenerates into constant bickering for days on end.

Oh and you're a damn good wolf and I love the "force poli to take someone obvious" idea.


VOTE LATHUM

:devil:

PB is hangin' in the graveyard with Path12

Always jumps to you? Come on. I can't even remember the last time I voted for you!

And if you've only been a wolf in one game, that proves my point. You've played a lot, and only been a wolf once. I don't know what game that was, but if I were hoops, I'd be curious to see how you play as one.

Oh and I'm a vanilla villager this time. guess my masterful work as a BG last game didn't earn me any respect =)

I agree with this. We need to limit our votes to only a few people for the reason stated earlier, but early round voting analysis comes in really handy later.

My guess is that they'll have to have the cunning wolf attack tonight, and then be able to have their other wolves attack people based on who voted for whom and when. They could try to risk it and hope their target doesnt move their vote last second though... but my guess is they pick their cunning wolf to target the player that they want to go after tonight (in attempts to get the seer)

what the hell is THAT supposed to mean?

DT voted me, I argued against him, how is that badgering anyone?