Oh, come on Axxon, be fair. There are African-Americans that will vote for McCain, but 90% would have voted for any Democrat and it's quite possible we'll see 94% or more vote Obama (with most likely record turn-out as well). Anytime your talk elections, you talk in blocks, and any block that a canidate has a sure 50%+ in, we say "we know this group will go for x." It is not sterotyping. It is demographics. I definitely vote against my demographic, but I'm not offended if someone groups me in with a voting block.

I think this is a pretty dimwitted view. People like people that they feel understand their experience and make them feel like they're not invisible.

Right, same for Catholics, Jews, 'white working class voters', etc.

It's just the way things are these days.

The quote I replied to specifically said that the latinos "generally aren't fans of other minority groups "getting ahead". Now, I'm no racial crusader but that quote is seriously fucked up.

It's one thing to talk about voting blocks; it's another thing all together to say racist things about them.

This is a pretty dimwitted statement.

It really isn't practical to analyze voting trends by considering each individual voter in the United States. Race, Gender, and Class are meaningful groupings that do tell us things.

Maybe it could have been put more diplomatically, but Hispanics may or may not for blacks on the whole, I really don't know the numbers. We don't seem to have a problem saying that poor southern whites won't vote for blacks.

Well, if you want to get technical latino is far too diverse a term to have meaning anyway. I'm Cuban and Cubans tend to vote republican, mainly because republicans make sure that when we can't possibly enter the country illegally like other latinos; a disparity that I'm all for changing BTW but I'll leave the hows as an exercise for the reader.

Dola, to add to my previous post saying poor southern whites is way different than saying whites won't vote for blacks the latter of which is equivalent to saying latinos won't vote for blacks.

Right. Hispanics/Latinos is an illegitimate moniker compared to the other groups, because California Latinos vote differently than ones in Texas than ones on the east coast.

Because we're talking about nationalities lumped into one overarching group that doesn't really account for anything other than the same language that they speak and even then...

Fair enough, I agree.

I think your response is far more productive than the "you're a racist!" stuff, which conditions people to hide from race as a factor in elections or everyday life.

Hey, every body has different issues and people tend to vote their issues.

As for the language, tell me about it. :lol:

Fair enough but I do consider the statement that latinos generally don't want to see other minorities get ahead incorrect, stupid and inflammatory.

Hey, we became the fastest growing minority through copious breeding and open borders, not by keeping other minorities down. ;)

It looks like Obama got roughly a 5-point bounce after Clinton's concession.

Edit: And there's a whole crapload of new polling data from NBC/WSJ (including breakdowns) here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25096620/

Post-concession, Obama's Latino support is strong, according to both Gallup & NBC/WSJ.

I'm looking forward to this, wish Obama was going to be there:

Obama wants a slightly different format, but in principle has agreed to a series of Lincoln-Douglas style debates. There's no way the negotiations for the debates could be ready by now and even if Obama had agreed I'm sure the caveats from the McCain camp would have stalled the effort. There's also the whole problem with single network coverage that Obama and McCain both borught up with ABCs debate proposal. Debates take quite a while to put together when both sides want to gain maximum advantage.

I find this somewhat interesting. Guess it could be interpreted different ways.

There's also this info from the 2004 election. The WSJ poll never showed a Kerry lead among registered voters.

March (Mar.6-8): Bush 46%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%
May (May 1-3): Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 5%
June (June 25-28): Bush 45%, Kerry 44%, Nader 4%
July (July 19-21): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
August (Aug.23-25): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 3%
September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%
Late October (Oct.29-31): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

I was reading Obama's speech today and he mentioned his two daughters. I actually did not know he had two daughters. They must have done a great job of keeping them out of the limelight.

They are really young, not even teenagers yet. They've been on stage at big election day events a few times, but they seem clearly opposed to carting them around for political gain and the girls don't seem to be really inclined to enjoy it at all. Not that I blame them...

Obama's campaign today hired Patty Solis Doyle, the former campaign manager for Clinton who got fired earlier in the year....they hired her to be the chief of staff for the VP nominee they pick.

One Clinton confidante said that the hire was a "big fuck you" to Hillary. So unless they want to fire her twice, Hillary isn't gonna be the VP for sure now.

Al Gore is endorsing Obama now, mostly to steal some cable news cycle time.

This is huge.

I can't understand why MSNBC was the only network to carry Gore's endorsement of the Democratic party nominee after he had already clinched the nomination.

Just about every cable news station I checked was carrying Gore's speech.

I actually think getting endorsements from more established politicians like Gore are fairly important for Obama, as there are a lot of people that are still unfamiliar and/or up-in-the-air with him.

Having "trusted" democrats like both Clintons (although I haven't seen a formal announcement from Bill yet, but I think it will come and be helpful), Gore, Carter, Kennedy and, to a lesser extent, Kerry and Edwards, will be important and give him a little more credibility.

McCain needs that less because he has been accounted for as a senator for 20+ years and well known as a national figure since he ran against Bush in 2000. Probably a good thing, as the Republicans don't really have much star power, at the national level, right now. I guess George H.W. Bush and maybe Schwartznegger (sp?) and Condi Rice would give McCain a little push.

Colin Powell would be huge, but from his latest quotes, he sounds like he may lean towards Obama as much as McCain.

CNN carried it, too.

Ok, but aside from almost every cable news station and CNN, I can't understand why MSNBC was the only network to carry Gore's endorsement of the Democratic party nominee after he had already clinched the nomination.

I saw CNN and Fox, and they had a split screen with Gore (no audio) while their talk show hosts continued to talk. MSNBC was the only network I saw that actually broadcast Gore's speech live.

Each side wants a debate format to maximize their advantages and their opponents weaknesses. McCain would seem to do better in the Town Hall format, while Obama would seem to do better in the Lincoln-Douglas style. Also, even though both politicians seem at least open to the idea of bringing Democracy to the people, the campaigns are run by "take no chances" career political operatives. So I imagine that for all of the talk of dozens of town halls and Lincoln-Douglas style debates, we will end up with the typical 3 debates moderated by the news media. Maybe they will add a little twist such as having some questions come from YouTube or something. But any hope that we had of an actual break from the sound-bite mode of debates seems dead in the water.

Not really news but Jay Paterno is a huge Obama supporter, which is kind of funny because his father is such a big time republican supporter.

Jay is even blogging for Obama. He should spend more time breaking down film than doing this stuff.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/commu...log/jaypaterno

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

The latest Quinnipac poll shows Obama up in the 3 big swing states. Obama is +12 in PA, +6 in Ohio, and +4 in Florida.

President Bush's approval ratings in these states are worse than the national average of 30%.

In the two biggest issues, the war and the economy, Obama has huge leads.

The Economy
Florida: Obama 55-36
Ohio: Obama 55-37
Pennsylvania: Obama 56-37

The War in Iraq
Florida: Obama 61-32
Ohio: Obama 48-40
Pennsylvania: Obama 59-30

Is Pennsylvania much of a swing state anymore or is it probably going blue? Is there anything McCain can do to sway the public in his favor on those two biggest issues?

Pennsylvania is pretty much a blue state at this point. If Hilary was the candidate, then McCain probably wouldn't ever go there. With Obama, I think the GOP is keeping an eye on it, but will probably abandon it to try and take FL and OH.

As an Obama supporter, I am cautiously optimistic, but there are also 4+ months to go.

Me too. I'm really wondering though when McCain is going to really kick up his campaign. Surely he hasn't really started yet because if he has, that doesn't bode well for him. It's like he's stuck in neutral like he was at the beginning of the primaries.

Are you kidding? McCain's campaign has to be delighted to only be down by 4 points right now, considering his party has an incumbent president with an approval rating of 20. Obama should be up by 15 or 20 points right now, and if he doesn't have at least a double digit lead at the Democratic convention, he's going to be in big trouble in the general election.

No, I'm not kidding. If he's planning to wait for the convention, the way the polls are trending, he's going to be down by double digits. That's what I'm saying. He's letting people move to Obama and I just don't see how he's planning to get them back once he's lost them. He needs to start staunching the bleeding.

I also disagree about Obama needing double digits at that point. It's the exact same arguments the losing side always uses in cases like these. Exact same argument at the midterms. How did that one turn out?

I don't quite follow you. The head to head polling between Obama and McCain has been remarkably flat for over a year now. Obama's biggest lead was in June 2007, when he was up by 7 points. He should have gotten a 6 or 7 point bump when Clinton withdrew from the race and endorsed him, but the bump was almost non-existant.

Obama vs. McCain Poll Trend

It is w-a-y too early to count anyone in or out based on current polls. That said, I'd rather be Obama than McCain at this immediate point in time.

Be aware, though, that the GOP's 527 organizations -- political advocacy organizations that essentially can accept unlimited donations from individuals without disclosure -- have not yet kicked in. John Kerry was brutalized by some of those (Swift Boat Veterans for Truth for one).

And based on some of the overtly racist ads that were sponsored by the TN Republican Party in the 06 Senate race (Corker v Ford), I suspect that you will see some incredibly offensive stuff out there before this election is done. That will be tough for Obama to get through

Certainly, the Dems have 527s and will aggressively go after McCain's record, participation in the Keating scandal, and I suspect that former staffers/Administration officials that he has thrown books at (literally) may bring up his crazy temper. But I think Obama will have a lot tougher time of it.

The racist buttons have already started this season.





hxxp://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/06/stick-a-pin-in-it.html

I read that the Obama team has hired Stephanie whatshername to be the Chief of Staff for Michelle. If you recalled the post-election writeup from Kerry's embeded reporter, Stephanie was widely criticized as the assistant Communications Director, esp. after the Grand Canyon debacle. One would hope that she has grown up since then in order to serve Michelle.

Is anybody else anxious to see the fireworks that will result from Michelle? She seems rather less polished than her husband and more willing to be racially controversial.

The weird thing about politics is that the same behind the scenes people keep working for the candidates, win or lose. It seems that once you get connected enough to rise to that level, you end up getting to do it every four years until you get tired of it, notwithstanding your results.

She really seems competitive. I get the impression from her that she's very strong-willed and could say something to ruin her husband's chances. They need to keep the focus on him.

Food for thought:

After Attacks, Michelle Obama Looks for a New Introduction

I think she'll be attacked just as much as Theresa Heinz Kerry was attacked in 2004. However, this time I think Cindy McCain will get plenty of attacks on her as well, after all she has plenty of skeletons in her closet.

I don't know if this is snark, but this has been debunked.

Some weak journalism in there...........


It's fine if they want to include that in the article, but cite the actual person making the comment and the context of the comment in the article/report. Fox News and National Review didn't make those statements, but rather someone on their staff made an editorial comment using those terms. It doesn't make the comments right or wrong, but incompletely quoting the comments is nearly as bad and gives further fuel to the NY Times political leanings.

Fantastic.

dola

When it comes out that Michelle stole drugs from her medical charity things will really hit the fan.

This thread is unplayable.

So I assume you believe them to be unbias in their reporting overall?

Look again. The secret is in the post.

Yes, but I'm not a paid journalist in a publication that at face value claims to be an unbias news source. BIG difference.

McCain struggling in several Bush states. Here are the recent state polls, with Bush's margins in parentheses.

GA: 44-43 (+17, +12)
NC: 45-43 (+12, +13)
VA: 44-45 (+9, +8)
CO: 41-43 (+5, +9)
MO: 42-43 (+7, +3)
SC: 50-44 (+20, +17)
ND: 44-38 (+27, +28)
AK: 45-41 (+27, +31)

Obama is struggling in a Kerry/Gore state

CT: 47-44 (+10, +18)

Also, the Senate races look really ugly for the GOP. The only Dem seat in trouble is Mary Landrieu's. Meanwhile, the Republicans are currently losing seats in Colorado, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. They also have to play big time defense in Alaska, Kentucky, and Minnesota.

You made the assumption that I believe that the staff at National Review and FoxNews are somehow anymore 'fair and balanced' than the staff at the NY Times. That couldn't be further from the truth.

Mind posting the source site? Thanks.

Actually, Fox News used it in a graphic flashed at the bottom of the screen during a "debate" in which neither of the participants used the phrase. The graphic read "Outraged Liberals: Stop picking on Obama's Baby Mama!"

It's easy to google it.

Edit: OMG! Beaten by Ronnie Dobbs! :(

Wow. When they say those 7 states are 'barely democrat', they aren't kidding. All of Obama's poll leads in those states are very slim. Should make for another fun election night. Per the usual, I'll be watching my home state to see who is President. Missouri still has the highest percentage of picking a winner of any state. Right now, Obama has a 43-42 lead.

Maine may also come into play. Democrat Tom Allen's been slowly making up ground on Collins. He's not there yet, though, but since everyone's been expecting this particular matchup for about 4 years, I think it'll be at least somewhat competitive before it's over.

Newsweek poll has Obama with a 15 point lead: 51-36

It's a pretty big outlier at the moment, so we'll see if any other polls verify this number.

Source: http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

There has never been such a election where I have so proudly voted 3rd party!!!

I hate popular vote polls. They are useless.

Much as I want to, I can't believe this poll. That's a "McCain killed a dog" type of change from their last poll. As you said, we'll have to see what the other polls say.

On another front, though, multiple polls now put NH officially out of play (in Obama's camp).

Also, Shaheen has a 14-point lead over Sununu in Rasmussen's NH poll.

In one of the most watched House races, Democrat Baron Hill is trying to hold on to his seat in a heavily Republican district. The latest poll has him up by a surprising 11 points.

While I can see a Hillary bump for Obama, I can't see it being 15 points. That's just crazy!

Ah, but is it a Terrorist Fist Bump?

talk about desperate fear mongering. FOX = Fear Over Anything

I'm watching Meet the Press and they have Lindsey Graham and Joe Biden are on.

A quick thought. It's amazing how much my opinion of Lindsey Graham has fallen over the years. He's just a mealy mouthpiece any more. His answers were so disingenuous that it was sickening. When I first moved to South Carolina I voted for him for the House but now I wouldn't vote for him for dogcatcher.

My second thought is, personal opinion aside, I may have been watching the two VP candidates here. That's what I am asking in this post. Anyone think this is possible?

Biden is too much of a loose trigger. Both are possible, but Lindsey doesn't really give John what he needs, which is balance to his ticket. I still think Tim Pawlenty is the odds-on choice for him.

Obama...is probably going to target someone with military experience it seems. That could be just smoke to mask their real choice, though. Their pick really intrigues me, because it'll be so interesting what they decide to do and why.

I guess Graham is a possibility, but I seriously doubt Biden. Obama has lots of choices like Nunn, Richardson, and Clark that offer so much more to the ticket than Biden could.

I think Biden is as good a possibility as anyone else, but I think I'd like to see Wesley Clark. I think he would help put Arkansas in play, was a 4-star general which will help shore up Obama's perceived inexperience in national security, he has been against the Iraq War and is not a Washington insider (which is consistent with Obama's message), he has been a Clinton surrogate which would help mend that fence, and he will not overshadow Obama.

It was interesting that when they asked, Joe said he wasn't interested in the VP job but personally, I think he is and is just Biden his time.

You were just waiting to pull that pun out.

True, true.

Graham won't be McCain's VP pick, because McCain wants to put him on the Supreme Court, God help us all.

I have read in various spots that Kerry, Biden, and Dodd are all interested in being Sec. of State.

Hell no, no, and maybe.

I think your acronym formation needs work. :D

Well if X = The Unknown; then technically he is right. Because the unknown could be anything or nothing.

We have a weener

Bah! You guys are reaching. :)

Not as far as Lindsey Graham for Supreme Court Justice but yeah.

Bob Barr, the former Republican congressmamn and current Libertarian presidential candidate, is polling around 6% in his home state of Georgia according to an Insider Advantage poll.

His presence on the ballot will likely turn Georgia into a swing state, as McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie (44-43) with Barr included, or at leat force McCain to play defense and spend resources there.

McCain's top advisor, Charlie Black, also known as the guy who worked as a lobbyist for Ahmed Chalabi (the Iraqi who urged the Bush Administration into war and gave them false intelligence) had this to say about terrorism and the McCain campaign:

I fixed it for you flere.

Three new state polls released today...

Indiana - Obama 48, McCain 47 (SurveyUSA)
New Mexico - Obama 49, McCain 46 (SurveyUSA)
Arizona - McCain 38, Obama 28 (Arizona State)

Indiana in play is huge for the Dems. Gore lost by 17 and Kerry lost by 21 there. If Obama made Bayh his VP, it would turn into a lock for them.

Still trying to find out if that AZ poll is a typo or if the ASU pollsters who did it are just smoking weed, because that's an insanely high number of undecideds.

That's just crazy. Only a week ago Indiana was a red as could be. It looks like a lot of state-by-state polling will see big revisions due to the end of the Democratic nomination race. Even so, being competitive in Indiana is pretty crazy.


Sample size was 350, with a MoE of around 5%, but still, McCain should be owning Arizona (like Obama owns Illinois).

Also, the L.A. Times has a national poll that matches Newsweek's showing a 12-point Obama lead. I still can't believe this, but... two outlying polls... ?

(note: I see flere beat me to this)

So the Newsweek poll that showed Obama up 51-35 seemed even fishier when Gallup had the tally at 50-44. However, a LA Times/Bloomberg poll has similar results:

Obama 49, McCain 37 (without Nader/Barr)
Obama 48, McCain 33 (with Nader/Barr)

The Nader/Barr results are interesting, as it looks like Barr is going to hurt McCain much more than Nader will hurt Obama.

If we look at realclearpolitics things are really, really wierd:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

They have Gallup Tracking listed at 46-43 Obama and Rasmussen Tracking at 49-45 Obama... sandwiched between 15 point lead in Newsweek and 12 point lead for LA Times. I don't think anyone knows what's going on.

People wanting to reach a self-fulfilling prophesy?

The same tired allegations of Sen. Graham's sexual preferences would probably get dredged up yet again if he were the VP choice for the GOP. I think McCain recognizes that could be problematic to the Christian conservatives he needs to turn out en masse. My money is still on someone with burnished conservative credentials. And not a Senator. Just about every member of the Senate from both parties hate his guts.

Kay Bailey Hutchinson would be a terrific pick for McCain. If I was running his campaign, I would suggest that over and over again until he said yes.

Both Kerry and Obama had very outspoken wives who were/are going to put themselves out in front. However, they seem to say and do things that make them look bad.

As for Cindy, I don't see her getting a lot of attacks. She's taking a behind-the-scenes approach.

Any idea of when the VP's will be known?

I don't remember TH Kerry being attacked much. I mean, I know she was extremely disliked in Limbaugh circles, but I don't recall that making any impact in the mainstream.

Of course, almost every GOP senator is also under investigation for something or other.... :D

I remember a fair amount of "elitism", "out of touch" and "Kerry married her for the money" BS. I imagine Cindy McCain will see these kinds of attacks while Michelle Obama will get the kind of attacks Hillary Clinton got in 1992 (basically, too opinionated & strong-willed).

I believe I read that she is interested in running for governor of Texas in 2010.

I think Cindy will only come under attack if/when things get ugly (which, if the polls showing Obama ahead by more than 7-10% prove to be a trend rather than outlier, they almost certainly will). Cindy has some pretty large areas to target, but since the McCains have been in the public eye for a number of years, they have already been out there.

Well if she runs with McCain, then I think she'll still have that chance.

I disagree that they've already been out there. Her drug addiction and stealing drugs never really surfaced in 2000 because the Bush campaign used the "illegitimate child" angle as the main sliming story during that campaign, and then the nomination was over.

And then McCain's use of Cindy's private jet to campaign (in contravention of campaign finance rules) is new to this cycle, so it may see the light of day, especially if the McCain camp keeps on harping on Obama's campaign finance "flip-flop".

Having said that, it'll probably be Democratic 527s that do these particular attacks, not the Obama campaign itself. Likewise for GOP attacks on Michelle Obama.

The substantive problem with Cindy McCain i that by her own admission she is highly involved in the day to day operations of a business that lobbies both Congress and regulatory agencies. If McCain wins this is a serious conflict of interest that will have to get sorted out. I'd like someone to ask McCain what the contingency is in the event he wins.