Sorry to introduce doubt into that. I certainly think path gets a a good deal of leeway before we would come back to him. Just saying we shouldn't forget about that role. I should know. I was that role before the re-roll.

Better to have all our bases covered but that would be a gutsy play to take down another wolf. Especially with a real duke still out there.

Just got back (my roommate wants to watch Nip/Tuck so she makes sur eto get back in time) and what do my eyes see before me? Is that a dead DAY ONE wolf?

Pat, I love you. Do you love me?

That last part is the most ringing endorsement for path. I figure, if we go to a lynch tomorrow and the real duke (if not path) does not duke to path, we're pretty set that he is our duke.

As for your first part, I didn't know who the wolves were when I was in the role. So a baddie duke path could potentially kill a wolf on accident.

Still, your second sentence is compelling.

Just want to point out that this was the First Day One in my four games back that I didn;t get a Day One vote on me. It was also the first game where we took out a wolf Day One. I'm just saying.

True. I wouldn't clear myself in everyone else's shoes. I am the good duke for the record though. I wonder if the wolf lover would know the wolves? I doubt it.

Yes Abe, I do love you.

OK, that answers that question.

Technically, the bad duke could duke to me also. Though it would be a poor move and I'd think they'd rather find the seer. I'm sure I'm an early night kill.

Look, as this became discussion today, I'll be out tomorrow night (date night with the wife, going to see American Gangster). Anyway, my voting record is bad this game and I'm tired of defending me so if you lynch me here, I understand. Well played guys, I'm out for the night.

Just got caught up. Losing the bodyguard and the duke (if he's the good one) power on day 1 is a pretty bad blow for us soldiers even though Path took out a wolf-good job there Path! On the plus side all that action gave us a lot of good choices to vote for tomorrow.

And hey I survived day one for a change! :)

I think you mean AC.

I think we have to wonder if he was trying to save PB, though.

I thought about it. But I figured BK felt legitimately bad about it, so no reason to pile on.

Maybe, but Iwould not be surprised at all to see you still around in a couple of days.

Naw, don't think you have to fear that, unless he makes a rather rash move. On death, you would be revealed as the duke. Since there is only one other player who can do a duke move and that is the wolf lover, he would essentially be outing himself and likely assuring his lynch the next day. So I am pretty sure you're safe from that, short of a wolf lover death wish.

Nice job, path!!! It sucks to lose the duke power day 1, but I think that getting a wolf makes up for that.

Not sure where we go now since there are a few good targets now, including me. But don't vote for me or I will cry, kick my dog, and use the name of Peregrine in vain.

Oh, and seeing my name every two seconds is making me feel vulnerable, Chief.

Double dola. I wanted to comment on the whole lying about rl stuff a few pages back. I would never do that, and if anyone ever wants to call me at work to wake me up from my boredom, PM me for the number. We can exchange greenbean casserole recipes and stuff.

Good morning survivors. Just a heads up that I will be preoccupied with birthday party stuff most of the day/night, so probably shouldn't expect a lot of activity from me today. After today I should be back to normal and able to post more frequently.

Wow nice Day One in that we got us a Wolf. When reading Alan's reveal I was praying that cronin changed the part where the BG couldn't protect himself at all (I was that role last game). No such luck.

Sorry about kick-starting the voting on ya there path, it really was just a barb over last game when I was so close to winning. Looks like it turned out well in the end though.

Anyhow, odd Day yesterday, with 10 players left and likely only one wolf, we'll have to pull a rabbit out of our hat. Right now I'm trusting myself (of course), Chief and Path. While I know I'd fit in the same logic, Pass voted with BK for Path. So that's something to note. Or BK could've been trying to save PB, another thing to note.

Barring the day's events, I'm leaning one of those two as they seem as good of a guess as any right now.

Just want to clarify that my Day 1 vote was an attempt to cut down the number of options by putting 2 guys out ahead of all the others. I got busy at work and couldn't get back to change it before deadline.

Morning all.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I'm not convinced yet. But I'm worried that BK was trying to save him. And it seems like he's trying to play the pity card, being so willing to understand why we'd vote for him. I already pity him enough for having gone to Purdue, so I've got no more pity to give.

Actually, I think there's two wolves left since the original lineup had three listed. Plus the wolf lover.

Oh duh, good call. Man, the deck isn't exactly stacked in our favor then is it?

Vote Passacaglia

He voted with BK for path on Day One. I know I did too, but I voted first and it was purely because path killed me last game (I had nothing to go on). They actually added votes to path.

My hunch is also then that PB is the wolf lover. It'd make sense he'd be ok with getting votes since he likely has the evil-duke power and if something flukish happened it's still better that he gets killed over a wolf as far as his role.

FTR, I voted before BK.

This is exactly my thought, but I have one other. No seer goes anywhere except to scan PB last night - it's the obvious place to look. He was acting oddly, BK may have saved him, and he was the next top vote getter - he makes perfect sense as a scan.

If a seer nails a second wolf on a scan, I'd reveal, because then we would be down to one. If I don't hear from a seer today, I'm going to be less likely to vote PB.

Although, to be fair, we have that one good and one bad seer thing going on, which means if both scanned PB, one will turn up wolf and the other dog.

That's funky, and I'm not sure how it changes the dynamic, but it may.

Actually, the good seer spots PB as a wolf, and the fake seer gets a random response.

True, but within one minute of each other and then BK says that he hadn't seen yours (which seemed fishy to me upon first read to begin with).

Could've been two wolves trying to decide where to put their votes via PM and voting.

Why would two wolves vote for the same guy at the same time?

Miscommunication. It's possible.

Yeah, it's possible. But LESS likely than the idea that I'm a villager.

Possibly true. Realistically I like the thought process Anxiety mentioned. I'd agree that if a seer gets a confirmed wolf on PB, he should just come out with it. If it's the real seer, then we're down to 1 wolf anyhow. If it's the fake one, then no loss for us really.

Aside from that there isn't much to go on, I don't see a point of voting for PB just yet, and heading down my list of candidates, you'd be next on the premise I pointed out.

Fair enough. I still don't see what is behind your premise other than "it's possible" -- but I'm not going to sweat it yet.

My premise is "This person voted with a known wolf". That fits only two people, me and you, and I know I"m just a dog. :)

But yeah, unless someone agrees with me I wouldn't worry about it either!

And PB.

Hey guys, I'm in and out more than I thought I would be today which isn't so bad given yesterday. Pass, I still stand by the fact that I'm a villager. I don't think I have anything else to defend other than the fact that my voting was horrid yesterday (but both were self-defense votes if that matters). I'm going to go a different route and see what shakes loose:

no lynch until we get possible word from the seer. Although I'm still not sure we want a reveal here but I guess with only two wolves, if they've hit on one, that does leave just one for us to ferret out.

PB, my beef with you isn't so much your voting -- it's that Barkeep seemed interested in saving you. He said he suspected that we were villager/villager -- and he may have been telling the truth about that, but it does seem like he went out of his way not to vote for you yesterday.

As for the seer, I think there's too many variables for someone to come out and say what they've got on PB, considering it would make them a target, and they don't even know if what they have is true. If we really think the seers scanned PB, why not kill him to give them a chance to figure out which seer they are?

I figured your problem wasn't my voting but I wanted to lay out there that frankly my voting was awful.

I guess I was hoping a seer could clear me or at least finger (minds out of the gutter) someone else.

Yeah, as soon as BK came up wolf, I knew that it would only further cast doubt on me because of his late vote. This isn't a surprise and I feel lucky to have avoided the lynch last night. I have little more of a read today than I did yesterday hence my no lynch but I don't want to get into a third situation where I've got a vote on a villager for no particular reason. If I need to again go self-defense, I will but will follow Chief and Path's leads today.

I tend to agree with Abe on the likelihood of Brad being scanned yesterday and without a call-out am leaning in other directions. JE, for what it's worth I want to take a closer look at Pass' postings, because I had a vague feeling that there was some triangulation between them yesterday but want to make sure that it wasn't just that they both voted for me. They were the two I was deciding between yesterday to duke.

Please, take a look. I've posted a lot, if I recall, so there should be a lot to look at.

Well it's good to know that while I still may be wrong, I'm not completely out of nowhere. ;)

In for a quick visit. Nothing really to add at this point. I think its pretty clear we either vote for PurdueBrad to see if Barkeep was trying to save him, or one of those that voted with Barkeep on Path for the same reason. I haven't made up my mind yet which one of those people to vote for, but I could go for any of them.

Barkeep wasn't the only one. I just went back through yesterday.

Right. Do you really think two wolves voted for the same guy to save PB within minutes of each other?

(after voting ntn)








Which makes me wonder why you were so concerned about it. Now today, you've put a vote for Purdue out there right away after arguing about not voting for him yesterday.

My problem with this analysis is that I would have expected Purdue to be scanned yesterday, and thus either cleared or not. The fact that nobody has come forward means one of three things:

1) Purdue is not a wolf. In which Pass' position of being against a vote for him yesterday and for a vote for him today is inconsistent.

2) Purdue is a wolf, and was saved by Barkeep, Pass or jeheinz in some combination. In which case Pass' early vote for him today makes sense in a distancing sort of way, with plenty of time to change it if Brad is actually in danger.

3) The seer scanned somebody else. This makes sense if you realize that the final vote count originally showed Purdue and I tied -- since I had a later first vote on me, the seer might have thought I would have gotten through the tiebreaker and scanned me. (the fact PB's vote wasn't showing on me wasn't pointed out until after deadline). Or the seer might have been unsure of how the tiebreaker worked and went in another direction. I don't know.

Either way, there is a link of sorts between Passacaglia and PurdueBrad based on Pass' defense of Brad yesterday. I think a vote for one of them will tell us something about the other and is the best thing I have to go on today.

By the way, there was one other person who was taking issue with Alan's vote for PB and that is Chief. However, on rereading that strikes me as more of an issue with Alan's reaction to his votes (which I was curious about at the time also), so I'm giving that less weight for right now.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

I always find that a Catch-22 argument. Pointing out how unlikely something is can just as easily be done on purpose in order to be able to point out how unlikely it is that it would be done. Or something like that. :)

I'll respond to this first. The point is that it's a gutsy move for the three wolves to get all associated with each other like that. Generally, when a theory leads to all the wolves being spotted easily, it's probably wrong. For example, when you came out and said that Anxiety was good when he was Lucifer, cronin and I knew you were lying, but figured that something else was going on, rather than assuming you were evil.

I work with statistics a lot. And ntn is a math professor. So his statement struck a chord with me. I defended PB because a bandwagon started based on ntn's admittdely faulty logic, and that just didn't seem right to me. Despite that, I still said I was content to let the tiebreaker handle it, but then Alan came out spouting his mouth.

I think I've explained that. The best I have to go on is that BK was trying to save PB. I don't have much reason to go after anyone else.

Actually, I wouldn't have expected PB to be scanned yesterday. I think that it's somewhat irrelevant who got scanned yesterday - if I were a seer, I'd think of all the data as not very useful until I have a good idea if I'm real or fake. So even if I did scan PB, I wouldn't come out with it, because I'd be putting a target on my head, and the info wouldn't necessarily mean anything.

1. I fully take blame for being inconsistent -- if I know who all the wolves were on Day 1, this would be a pretty boring game!
2. If PB is a wolf, you should vote for him, rather than chasing this theory.
3. I do believe the seer scanned someone else.

Well, that was fun! I'm heading home -- maybe there will be more to hash out when I get back.

In a large game? Nope. In a smaller game where one or two lynches going right change everything, I don;t know. I've never been a wolf in a smaller game, only in larger ones. There, I try to lay low, which is easier to do in a large game. Here, maybe you do the opposite. Make yourself as visible as possible so that people go elsewhere.

Remember, BK was only exposed because of the good luck of path being the duke and choosing the right target, otherwise, if it was a plan, it would have worked.

Now, I'm not saying that's what actually happened, but you have to admit, it isn;t as crazy as you make it sound.

How did you know he was lying if cronin couldn't tell you I was Lucifer?

For now, several people mark me as a bit snaky, with PB and Pass at the top, so I am following the lead of the person who is mostly cleared to my thinking - path.

Vote Pass

Sucks that I just missed him though, but it sounds like he's coming back later.

You would certainly come out with it if he turned up wolf. At worst you find out that you're not the real seer, and in doing so let's the other seer know which they are.

If you come up bad, I think PB becomes tomorrow's vote. If you come up good, then that is up in the air and I would definitely think we'd get a scan on him tonight.

I'm as wrong at times with my analysis as everyone else who plays this game, but I think that in this case we have the best chance to learn something whether you come up good or bad (which is unusual for me day 2).

Well, I have no reason to doubt path. Lead the way Moses!!!


Vote Pass

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

Who was your view yesterday?

Ditto this. I split in 25 minutes, unlikely to come back, so for me to move my vote, it's kinda important.

This is why I've been fingering PB -- I feel like BK felt safe trying to save PB because he wasn't under attack. It seems that a lot of the argument for voting for me rests on the premise that BK was trying to save PB -- possibly along with me. Why not go with the simpler part of the premise, instead of the more convoluted part?

I chose jeheinz, since new players scare me. He came up human.

Boo!

Haha, seriously though, since I know I'm human, I'll take my chances and do this while I brainstorm...

Unvote Passacaglia

I don't think I would -- if jeheinz turned up a wolf, I wouldn't have come out with it.

Remember, though, I could be the fake seer. So you're not necessarily cleared in my book.

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

Oh I know, but your scan was correct. The fact it was correct at least makes me not want to see you immediately lynched. I may not be cleared, but you've at least got a 50/50 shot at being someone very important. There's really only a few scenarios

- You're lying and you're a wolf. I'd entertain this if you live through the night somehow and then don't scan a wolf. That's the only case to revisit you

- You're the fake seer. Then let's at least make them night kill you

- You're the real seer. Then we're a touch screwed here.

In none of those though does it make sense to lynch you today.

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

I'd agree with this logic. I think of the two people scanning, the first one to get a positive should reveal. Then it's only these cases

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY

Fake Seer, Fake Result - BOO. But we lost someone of no real value and the Real Seer knows they are for real

Fake Seer, Real Result - YAY. The ruleset says "random" answer. Not necessarily always incorrect. I'd imagine there is a sliver of hope that a Wolf could get scanned and a Wolf answer could be returned.

Dola, I'm not sure if I buy the reveal or not. Cons:

1) Seer is the obvious role to fake in this game, because nobody is going to come out to challenge you, unless by some freak coincidence the real seer found the fake one last turn.

2) jeheinz wasn't in the conversation much at all yesterday, so it seems a strange choice to me when there were much better candidates to scan IMO.

Pro:

1, 1A and 2) I don't want to lynch a seer.

Hmmm.

That's a good point. Especially since if I were the fake seer, it's not very likely that I would mistakenly scan someone as a wolf.

I think the logic on this was that there were 3 last game, so the hunch is there are 3 this game.

We know that there is one that gets an accurate view and one that gets a randomly right or wrong view. In addition, the wolf lover can also view.

Actually, at this point, since the wolves will probably kill me tonight, I hope I'm the fake seer. At this point, it's just about making the wolves kill me, instead of you guys.

I can think of one more result: Fake Seer, Fake Result, Real Role gets lynched. Followed closely no doubt by the fake seer.

I think he's talking about seers, not wolves. I *think* we're sure.

Ah gotcha. Yeah, I think I'm about 99% positive that there are only 2 good-sided Seer's

Exactly. Frankly, real or not, there is zero point in us lynching you today. If we want to rehash a lie/truth/fake seer/real seer we might as well do that tomorrow. We'll have an excellent read on your wolfiness after the night kill. If you're alive and don't hit a wolf, I'll be more than suspicious. But for today, there is no point in doing that.

This is interesting to me. Hold on

Unvote Pass

Okay, let's chat. I've moved my vote off for now.

In this game, would a wolf false reveal as a seer? I'm just wondering. It'd be a brillant move. Peg a wolf as a "seer", have us vote for him, and then each of the two seers think they are the bad one, and neither reveals.

You didn;t do that though. You only "cleared" someone, not pegged someone. That makes me more inclined to beleive you.

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

True, but isn't that really in play at all times? I mean there is one good role left (that isn't used, the Seer). Crossing you off as the duke, there are 9 people we could lynch.

It's 1 in 9 we lynch the seer on accident. 11.1%. If we take Pass out and clear him as a lynch candidate for today at least, it's 1 in 8 now, or 12.5%. So we've only really increased our chances of lynching the Seer today by 1.4%.

It's not worth the risk. I'll go the other direction.

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I'd guess both "Seer's" got the exact same PM, but that one of them hasn't seen his test scores from Medic training. ;)

It's my understanding that each will just be told they are a seer. I'll try to find a clarification in the rules.

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

Ok, I appreciate it. I'm off to the store for a while and will check in before dinner.

There we go.

Well, I'm likely out until morning. I can't see anyone else worth putting a vote on so I might as well...
Vote PurdueBrad

My hunch is he's the Wolf Lover, so I fully expect someone else to die.

Then doesn't that make the role useless virtually?

I forgot to mention that when it came down to it, all that stuff was probably for flavor, anyway, and he wasn't trying to drop any hints.

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

Ok, I'll trust you today.

Unvote Pass

Do we know though if upon death the Fake is revealed as the Fake? I think the only way the Seer's really will know who is who is when we lynch incorrectly one of their "recommendations".

I don't really know where to go now. I'll think more about it when I get back.

The only other vote that comes to mind would be voting je in order to see whether Pass is accurate or not. But since he's likely dead after tonight I don't know if that's 100% enough for the other seer to determine which he is.

This is correct.