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You bolded something that the writer more than likely just made up and threw in the article to add drama. Just so you know. |
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Any response to the rest of the article? |
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That's the line that should have been bolded. |
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What's the problem with the way things are now? Didn't Bush talk about decreasing reliance on Middle East oil in his State of the Union address? |
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Don't tell me you took that seriously. |
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I think it's all drama. Quote:
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In other news, An undisclosed informant close to Hillary Clinton camp has confirmed that people close to Hillary say she will nuke Texas if elected to office. Scary stuff, eh? |
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Literally tommorow? I doubt it. But this is a big topic. Don't try and dismiss it as some contingency plan akin to South America. Quote:
:rolleyes: |
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So I'll assume you have nothing to say about the article? |
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I think it's just noise - people trying to use the press to stir up public opinion one way or the other. I don't think this administration has a move in terms of Iran, unless things start blowing up. They're painted in a corner. The next administration will have a lot more room to move, whether it's a Dem or Republican one. |
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There is nothing there. No meat. Supposition, pretense, logical leaps. That article has it all. Well every thing except a shred of evidence or credibility. Dutch's piece on Hillary had nearly as much credibility as your article. This has the tone of some liberal's rampant rambling about how screwed up the administration is. |
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Yeah, you're right. It was silly of me to think that we would unilaterally invade a country without provocation. Quote:
So you think the Admin. has done a good job? I guess I know at least one person in the 36%, then. |
Everything said in that article might very well be true. But without evidence, it's not a good article or something to be taken seriously. If you want something with a little more meat with regards to whether we are planning an attack, skip the unnamed sources and start looking at things like http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2006341654.asp
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Just a list of clues to know if we are really preparing to invade Iran. To be fair, the article in question from the New York Post doesn't allude to whether there will be a full-scale build up in the coming months, any more diplomacy, or if Bush is planning to 'Pearl Harbor' their asses. If Bush was planning a surprise nuclear strike (just to piss off the voters of course), he wouldn't make a big fuss about it before hand. That's were articles like the one in the New York Post (EDIT: New Yorker?) is so valuable, you see. It can read the mind of the Bush Admin and piss off the voters without Bush ever having to implement globalthermonuclear war. |
What I find funny though is Glengoyne's complete disregard of the media. It's like he sucked up completely the GOP propaganda about the liberal media:
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Wasn't Seymour Hersh the guy who 'discovered' that it was actually the US, not Saddam Hussein, who nerve gassed the Kurds?
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Seymour Hersh
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh Quote:
WTF? Get that man another Pulitzer quick, he's starting to make shit up! |
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Good catch Dutch. :rolleyes: |
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Ummm.. .If you read that whole story, that's about much more than protecting his source if you read the Abu Gharib example. |
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Couple of things. I didn't realize that Seymour Hersh wrote this piece. Also I never once attacked the journalistic quality or integrity of the article. I simply pointed out that there was nothing there except "secret sources", "hearsay", "inuendo", and "characterizations of the President's state of mind made entirely by the author". When I read an article, I evaluate the contents. When I read statements that make what I would consider to be extraordinary claims, I look to see if they are backed up. In this article, there is nothing. I't's like the author makes this outlandish statements, and then says "Trust me". Knowing now that Seymour Hersh was the author, makes my characterization of the article as "some liberal's rampant rambling about just how screwed up the administration is." (I missed the just earlier.) seem actually more apt. Seymour Hersh is an outspoken critic of the administration, and has made unfounded outlandish claims in his articles previously. Mostly more of the same. Assumptions and conclusions, all his own. He draws conclusions from his research, and essentially attributes those "divined motives" to those he is writing about. The conclusions he draws, sometimes require great leaps between the evidence and the conclusion. In short Seymour Hersh has lost some credibility since his "Mai Lai" stories. He did break the Abu Gharaib story, but I'm starting to wonder if he hasn't gotten carried away with the outrage that story brought about in all of us. I say this because he has also reported that we're already attacking Iran, and didn't he also report something about an outlandish FBI crackdown on indecency? I'm not sure about the last bit, but I am sure that Hersh's credibility is headed the wrong way on the Journalistic flag-pole. I see Hersh as a guy who regularly steps outside the bounds of journalistic reporting, and strays into loosely crafted fiction. I think pieces like the one linked above are pretty good evidence that Seymour Hersh is a rambling liberal ranting about just how screwed up the administration is. EDIT: Oh yeah. You guys criticize me for drinking the GOP Kool-aid, yet you completely buy into the tripe in that article. My criticisms of the article are real and valid. Any unbiased evalutaion would draw the same conclusion. This isn't about protecting sources, it goes way beyond that. |
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Just because it is a speech doesn't mean he should feel free to spew out ridiculous non-truths, even if some rat told it to him. The fact that he did reflects on him as a journalist. |
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Seymour Hersh also wrote a bizarre article a few months ago accusing the US of 'fixing' the Iraqi elections.
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In other words: I disagree with this administration because I think they're going to do something I disagree with. |
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I dont understand the nuclear scare. If country A nukes country B, then country A gets nuked by the UN (figuratively speaking). Everyone knows this. Who cares if they get the bomb, i dont, let them. Let them Nuke Isael, killing them and their allies next door. That just seals Irans fate, end of story. No country will ever nuke another, it just wont happen.
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Yes. I was just trying to put it in a way that was clear. |
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Sure, why not? |
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I'm pretty sure that the economic sanctions the UN put on Iraq were the last bit of bite that dog had....they might still be able to bark, but until the UN is reformed, Iran isn't going to care less what it has to say. |
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And as I tried to explain in my first post of the thread, it's not that Iran/the Mullahs are going to nuke Israel as soon as they get nukes. It's the revolution at the gates scenario - as long as the mullahs were being overthrown by their own population anyway, why wouldn't they nuke Israel and give some missiles to terrorist groups like Hezbollah? They've already lost everything in that scenario, why not kill a few million along with them? |
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Ok i shouldnt have said UN, I didnt mean them literally. I meant, the retaliation on Country A would be sanctioned by the entire free world. What country would actually nuke another? I dont see any country no matter how freakish they are, would actually say, "Hey, lets nuke them so we all can die too" - it just doesnt seem plausible any country would ever destroy itself to destroy another. |
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As for an example I'm not anywhere near the first to criticize Hersh's Journalistic "bent" with regard to uncited sources and inuendo. I'm sure any number of of Google searches on his name would yield some fodder for you. I'm not going to hunt for a link I think you will find credible. As for your quotes. You have provided a better example of journalism than Hersh's article. I believe those guys actually said what they said, and you could editorialize about their comments to your heart's content. My response to what those guys said... Well I think it would be irresponsible to NOT plan on striking targets in Iran, even if the effort goes wasted. It is better to have a plan, or rather several plans, ready, just in case it is necessary. Also I don't think it is necessarilly the Millitary's job to assess the ramifications of a millitary intervention. So I'm hopeful, dare I say, confident that someone else somewhere in the Government is acting as the voice of reason against attacking Iran. Also my criticism of the Hersh piece isn't I disagree with it. It is that it doesn't live up to Journalistic standards. Quote:
This is tantamount to "My sister's cousin's friend says". It is quite a claim. Too bad it is so loosely cited that it can't really be given much weight in analysis. Quote:
This is the kind of thing I'm talking about. He is addressing Bush's state of mind. As if Seymour Hersh knows thing one about the President's private thoughts on this matter. This is what I'm referring to where he takes certain liberties that I don't believe are typical in journalism. He has an opinion as to how bad this administration is, and he declare's the President's mindset on a topic using that opinion. |
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so you just can just believe what you want, that is written, and then say everything that doesnt jive with you is just made up? |
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I don't think you can deny that everybody does this to at least some extent. Whatever doesn't match your perception of the world is rejected as untrue. That's simple human nature. |
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This is not at all analogous to the Iraq situation.
With Iraq, everybody knew the US was going to invade. Here, you have people worried that the US might be thinking about invading. There are many other critical differences between the two situations, not least the political situation in the US. |
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No actually I'm saying that Rexallsc was going overboard on this topic because he bought into the unsubstantianted rhetoric in the Hersh article. I believe what the article and the other sources are saying about the US preparing plans for millitary strikes in Iran. That much of the article I buy. Note: I don't think this should honestly be a surprise to anyone either..it would be a description of "business as usual". The extraneous garbage, that isn't being reported elsewhere, is that Bush is hungry for war in Iran, that he is actively wanting to deal with Iran millitarilly, that the diplomatic pursuits are essentially a sham. The part of the article that inflames partisans like Rex and you. That is what I had trouble with. |
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THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH IRAN. The groundwork is being laid now. |
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Exactly. |
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How long was there talk of 'inspectors' and 'diplomatic solutions' and 'war is the lost option' with regards Iraq? If that is the exact same thing is happening with Iran, wouldn't that put war as a last resort in about the year 2025? If you are suggesting that war with Iran is a foregone conclusion and that it will happen under the Bush administration, isn't it then you that is actually trying to re-write history for your own incendiary views of world politics? |
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I couldn't be more satisfied that my position on this specific topic is a sound one. Just knowing that the two of you agree with each other, and hold this opinion that is on the "fringe" of reality, is enough for me. |
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From August '02 - March '03. That's about 8 months. Quote:
Starting our tally from this month, try November of this year... |
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Ooh, personal attack! ![]() |
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February of 1991 through August of 2002 has already been stricken during the re-write. |
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What ever happened to the French/German diplomacy effort? Did they give up? They were taking the lead with regards to Iran, the last I heard. Also, I understand the UN sent Iran a strongly worded letter. Not sure if these efforts are winning the hearts and minds of the Iranian leadership.
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Nobody was talking about war as any sort of option until August of 2002. So the answer to your question is about 8 months. We've already skipped the 1991-2002 phase with respect to Iran... |
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That's not true. It was discussed, publicly, by people in charge, pretty much every year between 1991 and 2002. I should know, I was one of the soldiers who kept getting on a plane. It's not my fault that you all decided to forget that. |
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The timeline is where you guys jump the proverbial shark. We screwed around with Iraq for years before enough was enough. Remember the "no-fly zones"? Remember that little thing called the Gulf War? That was the genesis of the invasion in 2003. The parallels with Iraq break down because the President hasn't said "Boo" about millitary intervention in Iran(only going so far as to say it wasn't ruled out as an option), while he freaking campaigned on intevention in Iraq. Iraq was a long time coming. Any action we take in Iran will be on the same timeline. Attacking Iran right now, ISN'T in our best interests. That fact should be obvious to everyone. The only thing that could change that reality, is if Iran is somehow much closer to producing a nuclear weapon than the IAEA and other sources believe. |
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I disagree. The media has skipped it. Not the US goverment. |
I'm angry because they've co-opted the term "Freedom Day." I thought I had a copyright on that one. Well, I'm sure I didn't. But I hate it being associated with that mess in Iraq.
Nuking Iran would be a mistake, assuming a certain casualty rate. Bombing their nuclear plants, however, seems to be becoming closer and closer to a necessity. Their leadership has made it crystal clear that they would use nuclear weapons to eliminate Israel, whether it's directly or through their friends in the Palestinian region. If we don't do it, Israel will. And many more people will die in the long run if that happens. The trick here is to do this with the support of Europe. That's going to take a level of diplomacy that Bush lacks. Hence Iraq in the first place. |
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Could you be a little more specific here? I follow politics and foreign affairs as much as the next guy (more than most), and I'm quite certain there was never a serious public dialogue about invading Iraq during the Clinton administration (or the post-Gulf War George H.W. Bush administration). We dropped a few bombs on them once, and that was a pretty controversial move in itself. I think I might have noticed if there was a bunch of war talk going around. There was a little more Iraq buzz after George W. was elected, but again, nothing that anyone got excited over until August, 2002. The level of discussion in the government, press, and public about Iran right now is at about the same level it was at during late summer of 2002. I guess I'd like you to be a little bit more specific about when, during that 1991-2002 period the nation was seriously considering invading Iraq. ...because otherwise I might tend to think that you're full of mularkey, and I wouldn't want to do that. Ultimately I find it incredibly hard to believe that the administration is seriously contemplating military action against Iran, but it is somewhat worrisome all the same... |
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Agreed. Preemptive nuclear strikes really shouldn't be an option, and it would be nice to have a broad coalition to take military action in Iran. I also agree that Bush may not have the diplomatic moxie to make this happen, although it would be nice if the global community would see past that and recognize the unique threat that a nuclear Iran presents. |
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Bolded the key part of your post. Clinton seriously contemplated using the military to effect regime change in Iraq, many times. We had already gone to war with Iraq once, and the vast majority of our guns in that region were pointed at them during that entire period (end of GW1 to GW2). This isn't a secret. It's just that, pre-9/11, nobody was really paying attention. And we dropped a few bombs on them MORE than once. |
During the Bush - Kerry election, I hard a number of recordings of Kerry speaking to Congress about what steps should be taken before and leading up to going to war with Iraq if they didn't comply with UN resolutions. I don't remember hearing these speeches during the time of the Clinton administration, but they were all over the radio during the last election.
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dola,
Anyone expecting to see some kind of sabotage on the Iranian nuclear facilities to cause some kind of meltdown? Maybe not the psychological devistation of dropping a nuke, but less chance of political fallout. |
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Well of course. It isn't like they have the technology to build one of those safely. The barbarians are probably using pre-Chernobyl tech. A Yugo would be more reliable. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge. |
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Brian. You know, I've always wondered what 'dirty tricks' we might do. It wouldn't surprise me (1) bird-flu strain, after we've stocked up on Tami-flu of course :eek: (2) sabotage their stock market and cause an economic depression or (3) equiping dissidents and encouraging a car bomb during a parlimentary meeting. In all seriousness, Iran is a definite threat, the region is a mess. I would hate to be the next President. |
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So uhh...Israel, go for it. |
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Attacking Iraq in 2003 WASN'T in our best interests. That should have been obvious to everyone. Quote:
Check out the Cunning Realist's ongoing "Personal Intelligence Agency" series here. He is a conservative blogger, and his PIA series tracks "whenever a pundit, blogger, journalist or anyone intimates, implies or flat-out states that Iran will have the ability to build a nuclear weapon in X amount of time---usually weeks or months, if the current trend in unfounded speculation and unbridled hysteria continues". He has many examples. In other words, the groundwork is being laid to 'change that reality' as we speak. No, no similarities to Iraq at all... |
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And it wasn't 9/11 that made people pay attention, it was the bully pulpit. |
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I'd say you are years off on your timeline. You are skipping the last half of Clinton's presidency when regime change in Iraq became the objective. It isn't like the defense department back then was looking into planting daisies to demark the No-Fly zone. I'd debate with you for some time about the invasion of Iraq being in the best interests of this country. I think that at the time something needed to be done. This country took action. At the time I agreed with the decision, and I don't think it is reasonable to go back and play Monday morning Quarterback now. So No No similarities with Iraq...No. I will go check out your link though...mainly because I'm not sure I follow your logic in linking it. |
Dola,
Okay NOW I follow your logic. I honestly believe that we're going to need awfully damning intel to proceed against Iran. The biggest problem I have with Bush's preemption doctrine is the dependence on Intelligence, and the failings that the Iraq WMD fiasco brought to light. |
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Well, 'invasion' isn't being seriously suggested in the situation with Iran either. What is being suggested is exactly what we DID with Iraq: tactical air strikes. Now, I'm with you in respect to it being a bad idea, but I don't think it's remotely a possibility. |
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Regarding the original question posed in this thread, Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw doesn't seem to think attacking Iran is a good idea:
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Another great article talking about why attacking Iran is a bad move. They did a war game with Pentagon and intelligence people and found out that it was a bad move for the US to even attack Iran because:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200605/fallows-iran Quote:
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Shoot, even Bush has said attacking Iran would be a bad idea. The only people who think it's remotely possible are those trying to whip up anti-Bush sentiment.
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For people interested in military technology,
hxxp://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/dshtw.htm is probably what we'd be using if we went the airstrike route, not nuclear weapons. |
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And from the WH press conf today: Quote:
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"War is the extension of politics by other means"
It would seem the ideal diplomatic position for the US would be if Iran feared we would attack but everyone back in the US knew we wouldn't go in. In this case, it would seem the opposite view is closer to reality - Iran doesn't fear invasion and people back in the US are up in arms about the possibility. As for Quote:
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We can pretend the problem doesn't exist, and hope we're not the target at some point down the line. That seems to be the European stance.
This isn't a 2006 threat. It isn't a 2007 threat and it probably means nothing in 2008. But nuclear weapons in the hands of a government that has made the statement that all the people in a certain country deserve to die is a huge problem that will ultimately, if unchecked, lead to millions of deaths. It's a shame that the massive mishandling of the Hussein/Iraq situation means that any attempts on our government's part to lead this discussion is met with mistrust. I don't blame them. Bush has earned our mistrust. That does not mean it isn't of vital importance to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of Iran. And to do anything humanly possible, even if it means turning Alaska into a sea of oil derricks, to eliminate our foreign dependence on oil (obviously, finding alternative sources of energy would be a nicer solution). |
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On a relatively separate sidenote, why would a country want to screw up its own environment just to be completely self-dependent? Wouldn't that be akin to missing the forest for the trees? Taken a step further, isn't it selfish to even suggest that, considering the ramifications such a drastic step might cause to the global economy? I know you're not advocating it but I thought it raised an interesting point as to where the line should be drawn between self-sufficiency and the environment. |
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Do you have a quote or are you just making things up again? |
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Any solution must take into account that other nations should not be dependent on importing oil, either. We know, at some point, that OPEC is going to shut everyone off. It's a miracle that hasn't happened over shorter periods already. And when Iran does decide to use its nuclear weapons, the stability of the global economy is dependent on whether or not we can do without OPEC oil. I think the first step is to fully fund groups trying to create alternative energy sources. Maybe to the point where the entire country is encouraged to take part, on the scope of the Manhattan project. Ideally, all passenger cars should use fuels we can produce here within ten years. Next, we should convert home heating systems. This is by far the single greatest threat to world peace. If we are to avoid nuclear war in our lifetimes, we must evaporate funding for these crazy people and we must find a way to keep them from destroying the world while we're in the process of eliminating their financial power. |
According to the news today, Iran's announcement is that they've successfully enriched uranium.
Me, I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why it's OK for Pakistan to have nuclear weapons but not Iran. |
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Responding to audience questions after a speech, Bush said that "the doctrine of prevention" remains the key in preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. "It doesn't mean force, necessarily," said Bush, who has not ruled out military action. "In this case, it means diplomacy." |
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Your original statement was "Shoot, even Bush has said attacking Iran would be a bad idea." And you think what you just linked to supports your statement? |
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He specifically says diplomacy is the better option than attacking! How else am I supposed to read it? |
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I don't know, but your interpretation is totally different from the text. He says force isn't necessarily ruled out, but they are pursuing diplomacy at the present time. NOWHERE does he say anything resembling "attacking Iran would be a bad idea." |
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How about: "In this case, at this time, diplomacy is the better option." He doesn't say anything about military intervention being a bad idea. |
Well now you all are parsing my words just way too finely.
The president as said that regarding Iran diplomacy is the preferred strategy. Feel free to assume that means Iran is about to be nuked. |
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Note to self: do not take st. cronin at his word. He really means something else entirely. |
Note also your own willingness to put the reporter's spin in Bush's mouth. Perhaps it would have been easier to understand had I simply quoted the President?
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I don't know how else you can read that other than "we are not going to attack Iran. The world won't let us." |
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The full quote which the reporter abbreviated ... his meaning may be clearer here. |
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