That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.

Definitely dodge the virus.

This is a little excerpt from the book I am reading atm (cover and scroll right for the excerpt)... clearly coincidence?

Monday the US hit 100 deaths. Today we hit 2,000. Stay safe out there frens.

In a week or so we're going to have twice as many cases as Italy.

I'm not sure what this guy is thinking. I get not wanting to put the cities/country under stay-at-home but to call it "a little flu" seems way too lackadaisical.

https://apnews.com/b21a296383694c6726d03e027134daf1

wow I sure hope Brazil's people vote him out quickly for that and what he is doing to the Amazon.

World Health Organization encourages playing video games during coronavirus pandemic

Well if WHO says it's okay, I better get going.

The first US death from the coronavirus was February 29. The 1000th death was Thursday. The 2000th death was today.

— Christopher J. Hale (@chrisjollyhale) March 28, 2020

A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.

I think the point was more about the exponential effects.

Fauci predicts 100K-200K US deaths; Spain, Italy demand help | PBS NewsHour Weekend

How about a planet of 8 billion? Once we start getting into the million people a day infected (if we actually get that far), the death numbers could be astounding.

Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.

When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.

True, but a million deaths a day, or 100 million all together...there's never been anything in our lifetime, or that of our parents or grandparents that even comes close to that sort of carnage is there?

Not in terms of numbers of people. That would be enough to actually cause world population to shrink. Proportionally, something like WW2 was worse (approximately 3% of the world's population at the time was wiped out).

This becomes the reason people go out and get others sick. We think of it as no big deal.

This is a highly contagious virus.

My issue is some people will get it and it won't be a big deal, and perhaps they'll be immune afterwards; or their body will be able to handle the effects better should they get sick again.

But for some, it'll be a one and dead. Worse, you could be admitted to the hospital only to be considered a non-survivable and not get treatment.

We are obsessing because it affects everyone in different ways and there is no ability to fight contamination unless you stay isolated.

eff Dumbya

Wasn't it Stalin who said one death is a tragedy but a million is a statistic.

I feel like this line of thinking is what got us here. We have heard so many variations of

"there are only X people infected"

"more people die from the flu"

"it isn't in my area"

statements like this make people not take it seriously until it is too late and here we are.

Those are two totally different things. I'm aware that it's a serious issue, I'm isolating as much as I can - only time I go anywhere is to get groceries every three days. I don't think having a sensible comparative perspective on the casualty numbers we've seen so far equals saying the virus isn't a big deal and people shouldn't take it seriously. I've been trying to get others to see that it is in fact that big of a deal, both in terms of those parts of my extended family who think the restrictions are an overreach and with those on this forum who have expressed that opinion.

In other words, I don't think taking proper precautions is any way in conflict with not going into panic territory. We need to do both.

Well that explains Trump's new conciliatory tone towards China.

Inside the start of the great virus airlift

Day 14 of Enhanced Community Quarantine here in the Island of Luzon in the Philippines. 1,418 confirmed cases, 71 deaths. April 14 is still quite some time away, and they are probably considering extending the quarantine to May.

Still surreal how they've managed to convince 14 million people in Metro Manila, and 50 million people in Luzon to generally stay at home. I think we're just looking at the numbers in China, Italy and the US, and are cooperating to hopefully stop this from spreading too fast. :/

Here's a nice website of weekly cases plotted to total cases, to show the trends of each country:
Covid Trends

I've only left the house two times in the last two weeks, both for grocery and medicine shopping.

Hope you guys are staying safe.

Remember that whatever number we end up at it is a) only the official count (even Italy has indications this is by far not the real total, France f.e. is not counting deaths in Retirement homes so far) and b) it will happen despite throwing the kitchen sink at the bastard.

Yes, 500 a day for the US is "not that bad" in the big scheme of things but, putting aside that this will be way more before long*, this will be the number taking into account all measures and highly increased equipment.

*Remember that Italy has only 60 mio inhabitants. 200 there is the same per Capita as 1k in the US.

But he did have mad dodging skillz.

Let this run through with business at usual like we do the seasonal flu and this could conceivably double the yearly mortality in a lot of places (it is currently still doubling the daily deaths in Lombardy and Madrid. Imagine what could happen in Mumbai or Nairobi. Remember that the only real medical treatment is ventilating people and 99% of the world has much less access to those than the countries hit first right now.
Not to mention even we struggle to get basic protection for Medical Personnel in hospitals and especially retirement homes. And we are buiying up the world supply at top dollar. You think anybody in Africa is able to get even 1% of what they could need ?

Lombardy is currently averaging more confirmed Covid19 deaths a day than they usually have dying from all causes. And there are undoubtedly connected deaths not recorded, some small towns have seen 300% increases for March even after accounting for the officially diagnosed Covid19 deaths.

If this is not largely kept out of Africa or India and they cant get supplies because the western world is still busy, i do not want to even think about numbers there. Yes, they have a younger populations but a lot higher percentage of cases for those will die without access to ventilators.

Even if medication is found, anybody think this will be available in large enough quantities there ?

What is your point.? That 100 million dead is not worth shutting down economies for a bit and sucking it up on the market?

I hear ya. I'm following the rules but I will look for the good news every day, and that includes putting things in context. 100k-200k U.S. deaths would be a LOT better than what we thought was possible a few weeks (when 2.2 million was the high-end projection). That's just how my brain is going to process that information. I need to have hope so I'm going to look for it wherever I can.

We're all just wired differently in that regard (overlapping here with the mental health thread). My father is an epic pessimist. That was so frustrating growing up. Every time I expressed something positive about an accomplishment, or a hope for the future, he'd explain why I was wrong to be happy or hopeful. That was his coping mechanism for shit he went through I'm sure, but it always stung for me, and it eventually kept us distant to a degree that still exists today. I don't want to share anything positive about my life with him because he might shoot it down, and I don't want to share anything negative about my life with him because I don't want him to feel validated about his pessimism.

I still feel that sting in other contexts, even now. You have to be careful expressing optimism in times like this, because it upsets people who are just wired differently. But, like you said, looking for hope doesn't mean I'm having house parties or not taking precautions. It doesn't mean I think 100k-200k dead is no big deal. I just want to get through today and feel good enough to do something positive and productive. It's a weird feeling to know that I have to be cautious about expressing hope and optimism. But I have to understand the different perspectives of those around me and that they have different coping mechanisms. And understand how isolating and divisive challenges like this can be, and to find other ways to be human and find and share that hope.

If we end up in this 100-200k range of fatalities in the US I will be extremely grateful that we took enough action to avoid worst case scenarios b/c we know it could have certainly been 1 million+ in the US alone. At the same time I will still feel devastated knowing that we allowed far more to die that was necessary and the only reason was sheer incompetence and willful ignorance.

It's definitely a complicated thing.

And it will also lull people into a false sense of security (ala Y2K). "We did too much and hurt ourselves in others ways just for this?!?"


SI

Sounds right, pretty sure FB tells me the approximate conversion rate is 1 blue life = 1 million civilians.

I'm a little moderate on that end of things. It's inevitable that the actions taken to limit coronavirus deaths will also have directly and indirectly caused other premature deaths. I'll be hard-pressed to say we ultimately waited way too long, didn't do enough, etc. unless we have an extended period of exceeding medical capacity and US deaths in the millions. This may well still happen, but I think the casualties on the economic side, while ultimately unmeasurable, are likely to reach six figures as well.

Acting too late and having hospitals overstretched would also carry a knock-on effect though. Those patients are not going to be treated in a vacuum. And the more there are at the same time and the longer that is the case, the less space and care available across the board. Doctors and Nurses getting sick and contagious, too.

So in reality it is more likely you chose between those 2 'side-effects' (economy vs lack of general medical care).

And i don't think acting early and decicively would hurt the economy more than waiting or simply being too late either. At the end, those that let the famous 'curve' get steepest (wittingly or unwittingly) will have the worst drop economically as they will then have to shut down longer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ion-its-worse/

Seems like a sound plan.

Good friend of mine had a friend of hers die from it today. Otherwise healthy guy in his mid 40s

Who knows if he'll stick with this new, new plan, but it's good that Trump is now looking at the end of April at least for relaxing recommendations.

we just got an emergency phone notification: "anyone entering RI after out-of-state travel for non-work purpose must quarantine 14 days"

edit: considering I live about a half mile from the state line.. Um...

Maybe Fauci finally got to him about how serious this is. Another 30 days is the right thing to do. And he was even talking about June 1 for the end of the curve so maybe it'll go one more month after that.

There seems to be an increasing penchant to link to stuff that is on subscription-only sites that I, and assumedly others, have no intention of subscribing to. It seems more productive to me to provide a summary or relevant snippet, unless you don't want some of the people in the thread to read it but in that case why post about it in the first place.

From the above wapo article.

From wapo re: Louisiana governor


So yea, good luck with that Alabama...

Just the picture from that Alabama press conference sucks confidence out of me.



It looks like they're in a back corner of a bank. And check out those two goons.

I'll concede that point

Sorry if this has been posted already, I don't always follow the thread:


Country music star Joe Diffie has died from the Coronavirus at age 63

So...the connection here is that he (let's call him "Brad") and his wife ("Brenda") co-lead the community group we're a part of through our church. (Community groups consist of 4-8 family units that meet weekly for bible study, prayer, sharing what's going on in our lives, etc.) Our CG hadn't met since 3/8; tonight was the first virtual/Zoom meeting. We've been in the group for 2+ years, and tonight was the first time I've seen "Brenda" cry. ("Brad" wasn't in attendance because he was at the hospital.)

He has worked 12-hour shifts for--I think she said--every day for the last 7 days. She said "he wears what looks like a space suit to work." They have three children--two school-aged, and a two-year-old. She is trying to home school the older two while managing a toddler and worrying that the entire family may already have the virus. She is used to seeing her mother almost daily, but hasn't seen her in 3ish weeks. She has no help dealing with the kids, as her husband is on the front lines every day. Brad hasn't interacted with the youngest child in over a week because he leaves before his son wakes, and doesn't get home until after he's asleep. According to Brenda, even Brad is commenting at how quickly this thing goes from "bad cold" to "life threatening" in a matter of hours. Everyone in the group wants to help Brenda, but we all felt so utterly powerless. She promised that she'd reach out to us if she needs any errand run. She shared how ANGRY she gets every time she sees or hears about someone not taking the quarantines/social distancing seriously. Everything she shared was so absolutely gut-wrenching that it's hard to even describe. I think everyone there would break social-distancing recommendation to help, but she's (rightly) insistent that her family adhere to a strict quarantine because of what Brad has been exposed to. :(

Horrific what our health care workers are going through.

Twas a better overall day for deaths, esp. in America. Interested to see if that holds or was just a blip.

I remember when this all first started one of the worst case estimates I read was 3,000,000 deaths in the US, and that figure always stuck like a lump in my throat, even though it was like an early, worst case estimate, based on us doing absolutely nothing, so in that regard today's estimate of 100-200,000 dead in the US was practically therapeutic to me, even though it's had the exact opposite result for lots of folks.

more like a booth in the exhibit hall at a gaming convention
those aren't goons they give demos but the company is forced to admit they forgot their games and must describe them to the crowd

I'm gonna guess the next set of unemployment nos. are going to be very bad also.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/inves...rus/index.html

If I'm reading the bill right, a lot of people in retail might stand to make more from unemployment, with the 600 dollar a week extra kicker. It's sad this virus is attacking us on so many fronts.

Drip, drip, drip

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241609941.html


That sound you hear is the traffic heading back up I-75 and I-95.

The other story in Florida is one I think people mentioned as a problem earlier in the thread.

Pastor of Tampa church that held two large Sunday services arrested, jailed


The last time I was out of the house, most of the churches that I passed were advertising drive thru services where the parishioners stayed in or near their cars while the service went on in front of them.

I really hope someone challenges this arrest on first amendment grounds.

Oh it is going to be challenged.

What has already become fascinating has been the bedfellows that are coming together on this.

Branch Covidians

You attend a service there, you all get to stay there for a couple weeks. How's that sound?

Crowds gather on Manhattan's west side to watch arrival of USNS Comfort

Looks like the ship will have no shortage of patients...

They would lose. Quite easily.

Coronavirus gathering bans raise religious freedom questions | National Catholic Reporter


Volokh is highly respected on First Amendment issues, FWIW.

I hope they throw the good book at him...I...wait....

I was thinking he might be a revelation guy, but this way better then where I was going.

There is some precedent here. Jacobson vs Massachusetts being the main one. I would be surprised if they overturned that.

Well this is good news.

Here is the blunting of the hospitalization rate- right on time.

NEED TO KEEP UP PRESSURE pic.twitter.com/i6CbBS4Hwc

— Farzad Mostashari (@Farzad_MD) March 30, 2020

Welp... that's not as far-reaching as I hoped, and not as long as I hoped (already a correction has been made)

I was talking to my Dad today who lives in Florida. He said all the New Yorkers are fleeing NY. Florida has put up a road block on I95 and are quarantining all people from NY, NJ, and CT for 14 days.

And our Governor has no intention of implementing a stay at home order and is relying on individual responsibility. Jeez, what world does this guy live in?

Uh ... so they get to stay in GA?

They are allowed and forced into a 14 day quarantine. Not sure how they enforce that, though.

BINGO! And that's why we're frustrated at another half-assed, half thought out response.

Is there a way outside of basically putting them in custody and taking them somewhere?

They're probably putting them on the beaches.

Second war of northern aggression :)

No, of course not. So other than the "threat" which may be a lukewarm deterrent, there really is no other true consequence to it.

Basically, if it's like what's happening here in RI. Checkpoints pull over people with out of state License plates (if you don't stop at checkpoint you get pulled over by cops). They ask if you're passing through, or going to work. If not, they ask you for where you're staying, and I think the Board of Health follows up with a quarantine notice.

Arizona is starting a shelter-in-place EO by the governor tomorrow. I'm not sure what really changes if there are a thousand reasons you can leave your house though.

Not that i want to be that guy but it does seem like a drop on saturday happened the 2 weeks prior as well. No idea if that would be due to reporting/data input lag or people simply trying to 'wait it out' on those days or not being able to get to their regular doctor who would send them on ... But it seems noteworthy.

Spain with over 900 deaths today ... France with their highest 1 day total as well with 418 and none of their numbers include those dying in Retirement homes etc and never getting admitted. Began moving patients by Highspeed train since Paris is past capacity. Almost 40% hospitalisation rate, so still lagging behind in testing.

Italy might slooooowly be taking a turn looking at the numbers in context. Lots more testing, yet still less new cases and soon a decent number should start to recover so that active cases can go down (serious cases already are going down as more of the new cases are mild ones they could not test a week or two ago)

Germany actually taking on a small number of patients now from France and Italy which is good to see, but moving them is a pain. Italy can only move 2 at a time, german Air Force has a converted Airbus A310 that can move 6 ICU patients and (in theory) 44 total, but that total normally not meant to be infectious illnesses where breathing can pretty much stop mid-flight ...
At about 500k tests a week now but until antibody tests are ready that is the max that can be done with the current lab capacity and ressources.

Drip Drip, drip drip


School ends locally on May 29th.

Schools were just cancelled for the year in AZ.

I almost with they would call it here in NJ. Just put us out of our misery already

We're out until April 15. There's no fucking way they'll go back in the middle of April, so I'm not sure why they aren't out until at least May at this point.

We are out through April 24th. Taking it 3 weeks at a time.

My daughter graduates this year I am seriously bummed. And she even more. My wife is in a group of Moms that are trying to plan something for them.

I hope our district lets them in July or August if need be.

Just lovely

Pritzker says the White House promised to send Illinois hundreds of thousands of N95 masks, but sent surgical masks instead https://t.co/4HaTl31KeN

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) March 31, 2020

On the schools thing, I figure most of the powers that be are just taking things one step at a time. As fast as this thing is changing, it doesn't seem imprudent to me to focus on what they need to do the next week or to only in most circumstances.

My daughter's school district started spring break today for the next 2 weeks. After that, they're schooling from home Tuesday - Thursday through the rest of April. Finals exams and the standardized testing have been cancelled as well.

I don't see how they go back to school this year. I'll be surprised if they go back to school on time for next year.

We were told they will reasses 4/17. I don't think we go back this year.

If your state said schools would go back in 2-3 weeks would you let your kids go? I can see some keeping their kids at home until fall.

Our kids were out until April 14th, but that was extended to May 4th. Since school is done the first week of June, we don't see them going back this year, but they haven't called it yet.

The district is loaning out devices for those that need them to start elearning on the 14th. Should be interesting....

We've talked about it and, with my father-in-law living with us, we won't with what we know now. That would change based on updated information, access to treatments, etc.

Ohio schools have been suspended until may 1st.

I don't know how they didn't extend the "stay at home" order at the same time.

And I think that's my first double dola. :) (Damn, almost....)

Had this conversation with a friend the other day as to how schools would handle this. They obviously have rules as to how many days can be missed, etc...Would they waive those? Would they send work home for kids to do who aren't attending? Maybe some kind of waiver for people who live with someone at higher risk? It is a complicated issue.

To answer your question it would be a game time decision based off how things are going.

Our governor continues with his ignorance of what is happening. He said Missouri would peak around mid April or withing the next 60-90 days which then it will be over.

What a dumbass. I really liked him as a governor until now. But maybe I liked him because he did not cowtow to the urban areas. Which he continues.

But this is a whole new game and he is still playing the old game.

When they cancelled for us it was initially for two weeks, no one really thought we would go back after though.

The sent all the kids home will well designed paper packets for 2 weeks of work. Once it became obvious we weren't going back they planned to do elearning. That started today and it was a bit of a shitshow.

The main app my daughter, first grade, uses crashed and no one could get on. the direction from the teachers was brutal. They made WAY too many assumptions that parents could intuitively use the different platforms.

My son, fourth grade, uses several platforms for math, science, etc...and can navigate them. The problem is all the passwords are remember in his chromebook at school and he doesn't know any of them. I had to email the teacher several times to get them. It was a big time suck.

all of this while trying to keep the 6 year old focused on her work and not chasing the cats every 3 seconds.

So far, it's been ok here. They have Chromebooks at school and, by total coincidence, we had gotten the kids Chromebooks a few weeks ago for home to do additional work and for our 6th grader to do research. They are able to log into their school accounts on the Chromebook at home and access everything they have at school. So, from that regard, it's worked well.

However, the school is using Zoom and they don't have the Zoom app loaded in the school accounts, so they have to use their home account to do the meetings with their teachers and classmates.

Overall, it's worked well, with me playing IT while trying to work from home. Hopefully, once they start elearning in earnest, it will continue to work well.

At least 400 long-term care facilities around the country have residents that have tested positive.

Not official yet but reports coming out that Michigan will be next on the closing schools for the rest of the year bandwagon.

Looks like it has been there for awhile now and is spreading rampantly. Facing mentioned Florida weeks ago as an up and coming hotspot. Not sure putting the resources into New Yorkers seems smart at this time.

Feels a bit like an excuse lined up by a state that didn't take the virus seriously and is about to get hammered.