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hoopsguy 05-20-2009 11:20 AM

Days 3 and 4 will take a little longer. I was not around at the vote deadlines so my logs were incomplete based on comparing them to the final vote numbers.

To be continued ...

Lathum 05-20-2009 11:36 AM

Yeah DT, put your mouth where our balls are.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 11:36 AM

Wow, Day 3 was potentially really, really interesting. But hard to fully evaluate without knowing about Saldana.

1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1735 - Lerriuqs votes Saldana 5-3-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB/Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1740 - BK unvotes Telle 4-3-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB/Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1753 - Hoops unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Lerri
1766 - PB votes Jackal 4-4-3-1-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1773 - MartinD unvotes Lerri 4-4-3-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Jackal
1777 - MartinD votes Telle 5-4-3-1-1 Telle over Saldana over PB over PF/Jackal
1782 - MT votes PB 5-4-4-1-1 Telle over Saldana/PB over PF/Jackal
1789 - Pass unvotes Saldana, vote PurdueBrad 5-5-3-1-1 Telle/PB over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1791 - Chief votes Saldana 5-5-4-1-1 Telle/PB over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1797 - Telle votes PurdueBrad 6-5-4-1-1 PB over Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1798 - Chief unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 6-6-3-1-1 PB/Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1817 - Chief unvotes Telle, votes Saldana 6-5-4-1-1 PB over Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1823 - PB unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana 6-5-5-1 PB over Telle/Saldana over PF
1824 - Jackal unvotes PF, votess PB 7-5-5 PB over Telle/Saldana

saldana 05-20-2009 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028389)
I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"



funny you should say that...i was thinking this morning about how annoyed i am going to be that both of you are wolves, and that you both played us all for the entire game

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 11:59 AM

Day 3 vote commentary:


Day 3 setup - there were a lot of people around near the deadline with the brutal wolf on the line. I was not, but based on posts in the thread the following people were: Chief, Autumn (no change), Jackal, MT (no change)

Day 3
#1535 Autumn with early vote on Telle (2-0), never moves it. Was around at the deadline to do so if he wanted.

#1554 Lathum votes PB, stays there (same as D2), tying him with Telle at 2-2.

#1616 Saldana votes Telle to make it 4-2 Telle and stays there for duration. This is not a self defense vote at this point as he has no heat on him yet.

#1633 Poli votes Telle and stays there. 5-2 Telle now. I like this Poli vote more than any on first two days, even though it is the same person he has voted each time.

#1637 Jackal throws vote on PF, his first vote of day. Vote stays until the very end.

#1661 PF votes PB, closing gap to two votes. Vote stays there for duration.

#1684 Dubb votes Saldana, his first vote of day. Vote stays for duration.

#1702 Abe votes PB, closing gap to one vote. Vote stays there for duration.

#1723 I vote Jackal, his first vote of day.

#1753 I change vote to Saldana, which now ties him for the lead with Telle

#1782 MT votes PB, making score 5-4-4 with Telle ahead of PB and Saldana. Very bad vote here given that he avoided a known wolf and went with a known villager. Not sure how bad on relative scale without knowing Saldana's faction

#1791 Chief votes Saldana, putting him one back of PB/Telle.

#1798 Chief unvotes Saldana, votes Telle to create a 6-6 tie with PB

#1817 Chief unvotes Telle, votes Saldana one minute before deadline (fear of tie)

#1823 PB unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana on deadline (too late?)

#1824 Jackal unvotes PF, votes PB (could have created tie with vote for either Saldana or Telle). He had also said earlier he was not going to change his PF vote to break the PB/Telle tie but did so right at the end. His post indicates that he had seen Chief's move, but not as sure if he saw PB's move.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 12:03 PM

If we are to believe that The Jackal is a village, then we had a wolf on the line down the stretch without any wolves moving to save her.

I'm vouching for Chief, so that was a villager who ended up making a bad play.

There were people on Saldana who could have acted to save someone, but none that I know were around at deadline other than Chief Rum.

MT had his vote on PB, so he could only save PB and not Telle.

Autumn had his vote on Telle, so he could have "saved" her with a vote change.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:05 PM

Hoops, to clarify, I did not say I would not move my PF vote to break the tie, I said I wouldn't be moving it when I thought there wasn't a tie.

I moved it because of the tie possibility, I didn't want a tie, I just shouldn't have been voting for PB. I had it in my head that Lathum was on to something with him and by the time I realized he was probably good it was too late.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:06 PM

If PF is a wolf I'm gonna be pissed after this game that I suspected him all along and he got away with playing UTR. ;)

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 12:06 PM

Quote:

#1782 MT votes PB, making score 5-4-4 with Telle ahead of PB and Saldana. Very bad vote here given that he avoided a known wolf and went with a known villager. Not sure how bad on relative scale without knowing Saldana's faction

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

saldana 05-20-2009 12:10 PM

question to lathum, if you are so confident that we are being led around by hoops, why arent you voting for him? or even trying to suggest we vote for him?

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2028487)
Hoops, to clarify, I did not say I would not move my PF vote to break the tie, I said I wouldn't be moving it when I thought there wasn't a tie.

I moved it because of the tie possibility, I didn't want a tie, I just shouldn't have been voting for PB. I had it in my head that Lathum was on to something with him and by the time I realized he was probably good it was too late.


Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2023831)
I'm not going to move my vote, I don't feel strongly about either of those choices.


The second quote is when it was a 6-6 tie between Telle and PB with two minutes to deadline. Post #1807.

Again, if I'm missing some nuance then let me know. There were quite a few posts that were fast and furious there, but the tie was set up at 6-6 in post #1798, three minutes earlier. So it sure read like you weren't going to break that tie because you did not feel strongly about the candidates. But you then did move the vote at the last second in post #1824.

Quote:

unvote PF

vote PB


Just in case of shenanigans.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2023821)
Okay, not leaving it in a tie. If others jump on to vote, I will switch back to saldana, my intended target. But it's 5-5, 5 mins to deadline and no one's saying anything.

UNVOTE SALDANA

VOTE TELLE


He's being a whiny biatch, but I buy the logic tolet PB go another day on the assumption the seer will have scanned him (and that seer better have by now).


Hoops, I based that post on this one from CR saying he put Telle into the lead. And when I posted that, the updated vote count showing a tie came right after it, and I did not want a tie.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:18 PM

I made a split-second decision because I was still trying to catch up, having just arrived in the thread. I didn't want to move my vote to give one person a stranglehold or make it a tie - but I definitely didnt want it to end in a tie, and it looked like no one was going to do anything (of course then CR did)

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028490)
Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.


do you mean DT?

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:19 PM

I asked for a vote count, said I wasn't gonna move (because I thought it wasn't a tie), the vote count was posted, then I moved. Make sense?

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:19 PM

I mean, that was my thought process. I ended up moving my vote onto the wrong damn person, anyways.

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2028496)
question to lathum, if you are so confident that we are being led around by hoops, why arent you voting for him? or even trying to suggest we vote for him?


I can't

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:23 PM

That post from saldana kind of makes me feel better about him. I'm not sure a wolf would ask that question, knowing that they criticized Lathum.

saldana 05-20-2009 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028509)
I can't


you cant vote for hoops? or you cant suggest to anyone else who to vote for.

let me guess...another function of you still as of yet unmanifested special ability

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:27 PM

sal, they criticized him again last night, he can't vote today

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:27 PM

of course he could be criticizing himself, but either way he cant vote

saldana 05-20-2009 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2028510)
That post from saldana kind of makes me feel better about him. I'm not sure a wolf would ask that question, knowing that they criticized Lathum.


Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2028511)
you cant vote for hoops? or you cant suggest to anyone else who to vote for.

let me guess...another function of you still as of yet unmanifested special ability

never mind...i had forgotten you wer criticized again...reading the night action before coffee is not a good plan.

saldana 05-20-2009 12:29 PM

although the criticizing doesnt stop you from making the suggestion

nor does it answer for the still as of yet unmanifested special ability that is going to benefit us all.

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:29 PM

I actually kind of like being criticized, it's liberating in a way.

saldana 05-20-2009 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028519)
I actually kind of like being criticized, it's liberating in a way.


you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

saldana 05-20-2009 12:31 PM

forgot the smiley :D

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028005)
I think I would vote Hoops if I could, but I can get behind a Jackal vote also


Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2028518)
although the criticizing doesnt stop you from making the suggestion

nor does it answer for the still as of yet unmanifested special ability that is going to benefit us all.


not good enough for you I guess.

as for my ability I can't choose when to use it, but you will al know when it happens.

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2028521)
you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.


I know I feel better.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:33 PM

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:33 PM

which i'm interested in hearing because i have to decide if i want to vote for him

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2028525)
I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.


I don't think he meant that at all, had he meant that he would have said argument and not suggestion.

And it isn't like him to miss details like the ones he is missing.

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028371)
I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.


Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2028525)
I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.


...

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028504)
do you mean DT?


Yes, thanks.

Autumn 05-20-2009 12:37 PM

Lathum, I can imagine what your role would be, and that it wouldn't show up unless certain circumstances occur. But I don't see any sign of it being activated on that day. can you point me to any indicator of it being activated?

The Jackal 05-20-2009 12:37 PM

Alright, thanks for re-posting.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2028505)
I asked for a vote count, said I wasn't gonna move (because I thought it wasn't a tie), the vote count was posted, then I moved. Make sense?


Yep, I know that the posts can come fast and furious near the deadline. That version you posted makes sense.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 12:41 PM

Day 4 voting log:

1981 - Poli votes Telle 1-0
2021 - Autumn votes Lerriuqs 1-1 Telle/Lerri
2036 - MT votes Hoops 1-1-1 Telle/Lerri/Hoops
2051 - MT unvotes Hoops 1-1 Telle/Lerri
2057 - Hoops votes Lerri 2-1 Lerri over Telle
2087 - Clap votes Pass 2-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass
2160 - Saldana votes Lerri 3-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass
2184 - Dubb votes Hoops 3-1-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass/Hoops
2189 - Abe votes Lerri 4-1-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass/Hoops
2190 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2228 - Lerri votes Hoops 4-3-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2229 - Jackal votes Lerri 5-3-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2238 - MartinD votes Hoops 6-3-1-1- Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2248 - Lerri unvotes Hoops, votes Lerri 7-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2275 - Autumn unvotes Lerri, votes Telle 6-2-2-1 Lerri over Hoops/Telle over Pass
2276 - Chief votes Clap 6-2-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops/Telle over Pass/Clap
2280 - MT votes Telle 6-3-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops over Pass/Clap
2286 - PF votes Telle 6-4-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops over Pass/Clap
2291 - Hoops unvotes Lerri, votes Clap 5-4-2-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops/Clap over Pass
2294 - Dubb unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 5-5-2-1-1 Lerri/Telle over Clap over Pass/Hoops
2298 - Telle votes Lerri 6-5-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass/Hoops
2303 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes Lerri 7-5-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass
2320 - Lerri unvotes Lerri, votes Telle 6-6-2-1 Lerri/Telle over Clap over Pass
2324 - Dubb unvotes Telle, votes Lerri 7-5-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass
2325 - MT unvotes Telle, votes Lerri 8-4-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass

Lathum 05-20-2009 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2028534)
Lathum, I can imagine what your role would be, and that it wouldn't show up unless certain circumstances occur. But I don't see any sign of it being activated on that day. can you point me to any indicator of it being activated?


I have a PM in to Danny to see if I can address this

Autumn 05-20-2009 12:46 PM

2238, it lists Martin as voting Hoops yet Lerri goes up by one?

Autumn 05-20-2009 12:48 PM

Okay, I checked my log, I think that's meant to say he voted Lerriuqs

Danny 05-20-2009 12:57 PM

I'll address this here, for the most part I'd prefer discussion to be on the voting analysis, etc... and less on exploring roles, I really don't want any potential reveals to go any further.

saldana 05-20-2009 12:59 PM

ok, not that i havent had the feeling myself, but just to see where this goes
unvote DT
vote hoops

Autumn 05-20-2009 01:04 PM

I'm going to stick with Abe for now then. His votes are pretty bad and I don't have any indication that he has anything but a wolf role.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:04 PM

D4 setup - the early voting was really a departure from D3, with both Telle and Saldana drawing a ton less heat than they did the previous day. I'm absolutely responsible for part of this, as I'll note in the posts below. But this was a real missed opportunity to learn about Telle/Saldana.

Also, unlike D5 I do not see a scenario where they want to burn Telle if they can avoid it. They have to realize it is a possibility as the seer is still out there and unknown, but I think they want to ride the early wave on another candidate that they think is a villager.

D4 deadline participants - Lathum (could not vote), MT, Autumn, Dubb, me (sort of, flaky connection), Abe (post at 7:01)

D4 analysis:
#1981 - Poli is locked in on Telle at this point

#2021 - I'm not sure why Autumn changed horses from Telle yesterday to Lerri this morning. When I thought he was the seer I worked with idea that he had scanned her this AM

#2057 - I follow Autumn on his vote. I've obviously been pretty keen on his takes, since I think he is the seer at this point

#2160 - Saldana votes Lerri. He had a good Telle vote the previous day but now is falling in line on Lerri. What changed for him on Telle? This vote never moves.

#2189 - Abe keeps the Lerri train going. Vote never moves and he was around near the deadline.

#2229 - Jackal votes Lerri over me, Telle still way back. While I appreciate not picking up a vote here, from a wolf perspective both players are villagers so I can't give much credit here.

#2248 - here is where Lerri pulls the unvote, making it 7-2 margin over me and Telle is still at one vote (Poli's opener)

#2275 - Autumn starts run to Telle, suggesting that vote feels too easy. Yep, first time in awhile a wolf hasn't been in danger.

#2276 - Chief votes Clap. Oops.

#2280 - MT votes Telle. Good vote here as it opens up the possibility of bringing a wolf into the mix.

#2286 - PF votes Telle. Even better vote, PF is staying strong near the top of my trust list.

#2291 - I unvote Lerri, but move to Clap. Best move would have been a vote on Telle, but the move to Clap at least creates some pressure by shrinking Lerri's lead over Telle to 5-4

#2294 - Dubb unvotes me, votes Telle. Very good vote, I'm pretty much prepared to cede the game if Dubb has been making these kinds of plays as a wolf.

#2320 - Lerri make a move off himself to Telle one minute before the deadline, tying him with Telle.

#2324 - Dubb swings his vote from Telle to Lerri, 7-5 Lerri.

#2325 - MT swings his vote from Telle to Lerri, 8-4 Lerri.

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028490)
Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.


Because I wasn't trying to save Telle. Because I am a villager and she was a wolf.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MartinD (Post 2026062)
VOTE LERRIUQS

I may well be voting for a villager, but his lack of activity doesn't feel right to me.


This is Post #2238, so error was in my log. But the vote count is correct there.

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2028521)
you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.


omg :D

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:09 PM

Day 5 votes (did these yesterday, so no additional research time required):

2452 Poli votes Telle 1-0
2467 Clap votes Telle 2-0
2472 Lathum votes Hoops 2-1 Telle over Hoops
2476 Hoops votes Clap 2-1-1 Telle over Hoops/Clap
2481 Lathum unvotes Hoops, votes Saldana 2-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana
2494 Saldana votes Lathum 2-1-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana/Lathum
2501 Chief votes Clap 2-2-1-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana/Lathum
2509 Dubb votes Saldana 2-2-2-1 Telle/Clap/Saldana over Lathum
2513 Autumn votes Clap 3-2-2-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum
2521 Abe votes Hoops 3-2-2-1-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2558 MartinD votes Telle 3-3-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2587 Telle votes Clap 4-3-2-1-1 Clap over Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2590 PF votes Telle 4-4-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2593 Jackal votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2595 Abe unvotes Hoops, votes telle 5-4-3-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2598 MT votes Clap 5-5-3-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2604 Saldana unvotes Lathum, votes Telle 6-5-3 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2614 Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 7-5-2 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2622 Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 8-5-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2627 Jackal unvotes Saldana, votes Clap 8-6 Telle over Clap
2635 MT unvotes Clap, votes Telle 9-5 Telle over Clap

dubb93 05-20-2009 01:13 PM

If we assume that the wolves knew Martin was the seer I think it is possible that they gave up the vote yesterday when Martin voted Telle out of fear of him revealing and creating a massive COT if they pushed too hard against her.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:15 PM

Dubb, I've posted some long thoughts on why I think they did exactly that.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028093)
Lathum, assuming you are making that move as a villager - do you see that the wolves were willing to make that move today?

Telle was going to get nailed to a wall sometime soon by virtue of the heat she was getting in every direction and the fact that the person they knew was the seer was voting for her. They had a shot at both the seer and a roled Clap in the same day by allowing Telle to fail. And the late movers can pick up some trust in the process as an added bonus.

If you think that the wolves could think this way, then you look at that late movement a little bit differently.

Sure, if they thought they could get Clap lynched today then they keep their brutal for tomorrow. But what if the alternate target ended up being Saldana and Clap is still around at night to potentially block them (remember, they knew seer already, so what role is Clap going to have when they know he is a villager and not seer?) when they go for the seer? Was Saldana a wolf or a villager? If he was a wolf, then it was obviously easier to just give up Telle here.

Anyway, that is why I'm noting who had votes on the wolf but not calling out early/late movement on that particular vote.


Dubb, here was my post on that very topic from last night post-deadline.

dubb93 05-20-2009 01:17 PM

If you look at the vote after the Martin vote for Telle there was a huge run on her. I think we may find some wolves in the voters after Martin placed his vote on her. I will include myself in the list since I was one of those voters even though I know I am a villager:

Abe
Saldana
Dubb
Lathum
MT

PF

All of these were unvotes EXCEPT for PF. I would look at the ones who unvoted and switched after the Martin vote and I have bolded those names. I have to think there are a couple of wolves in that list.

The Jackal 05-20-2009 01:19 PM

I'm going skating for a few hours, I'll be back but I'm going to put this out there for now.

VOTE ABE

dubb93 05-20-2009 01:20 PM

I'm going with Abe for reasons I have stated above and on the last page.

Vote Abe

Abe Sargent 05-20-2009 01:21 PM

you think I would vote to go 5-4 on a wolf and break a tie, when I'm not going to be around later?

You think I'd jump way out in front on Day One as a wolf, knowing I would get major heat, just because I like to live dangerously as a wolf.

If you honestly think my play in this game has been anything wolfish, then you are either a wolf yourself, trying to throw suspicion on a villager, or you are absolutely rubbish at reading people in WW>

Abe Sargent 05-20-2009 01:22 PM

Now that Bk is dead, you will learn nothing from the revelation of my role if I die.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:27 PM

Day 5 setup - assumption is that the wolves know that MartinD is the seer going into the day. Telle has been on block every day and has already drawn heat from the seer. It is clearly in their best interests to keep him quiet for one more day so they can night kill him.

#2452 - Poli continues his crusade against Telle, was started the night before when he called out for others to join him on the vote. At some point I would love to know how he was so sure when he wasn't the seer.

#2472 - Lathum puts a vote on me

#2476 - I put a vote on Clap, vote stays there for duration.

#2481 - Lathum moves to Saldana

#2494 - Saldana moves it to Lathum

#2501 - Chief votes Clap. At this point, do the wolves want to see Telle lynched? I'm not sure. Chief's vote stays for duration.

#2509 - Dubb votes Saldana

#2513 - Autumn votes Clap, says later he was following me and Chief (little nervous about this as the wolves know who is the seer right now, but still have Autumn pretty high on personal trust list)

#2521 - Abe votes for me

#2558 - MartinD votes Telle, which he has done pretty consistently for a couple of days now. But he has not revealed as the seer. I think by this point they are more or less ready to see Telle die just to keep MartinD from revealing and publishing his list.

#2587 - Telle votes for Clap, puts him in lead.

#2590 - PF votes Telle, tying it up again. PF did vote for Telle the previous day as well.

#2593 - Jackal votes for Saldana, introducing a new candidate to the vote

#2595 - Abe unvotes me, votes Telle into lead by one. I do not think there is a history of voting for Telle here.

#2598 - MT votes Clap, tying the vote one more time

#2604 - Saldana unvotes Lathum, votes Telle into lead 6-5. He has voted for Telle on D3, but I think that is only time.

#2614 - Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes Telle to push lead to 2. I don't think he has voted Telle previously but will double-check.

#2622 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes Telle, lead now 3. Again, will check previous votes but I'm really not suspecting Dubb right now.

#2635 - MT unvotes Clap, votes Telle. Once again, voting records to check.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028160)
OK, new idea that I'll explore this morning when I finish my work commitments - who were the people who voted for Telle yesterday that did not vote for her when she had been in danger on earlier days?

I've got pretty good vote/unvote logs from each of the days so I'll look at those.

If anyone wants to chime in on this before I get the data up, I would love feedback on if this idea makes sense as a way to find a wolf. Obviously it is somewhat self-serving, since I never voted Telle (that I can recall) so I won't appear on this list. But I think that it makes for an interesting data point, at the very least.


Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93 (Post 2028596)
If you look at the vote after the Martin vote for Telle there was a huge run on her. I think we may find some wolves in the voters after Martin placed his vote on her. I will include myself in the list since I was one of those voters even though I know I am a villager:

Abe
Saldana
Dubb
Lathum
MT

PF

All of these were unvotes EXCEPT for PF. I would look at the ones who unvoted and switched after the Martin vote and I have bolded those names. I have to think there are a couple of wolves in that list.


Once again, looks like our thinking today dovetails pretty nicely.

Abe Sargent 05-20-2009 01:30 PM

I pushed for Telle or hoops right after lynch revealed the Sympathizer seemingly protect either one or the other who were in the running at various times.

That gave me hard info, and I pushed for one or the other the entire day. When I voted for Telle, it was because the other one, hoops, was not getting votes, and I wanted to vote for one or the other based on Lerri's play.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2028356)
This is quite ugly but here is the voting list that I have, Hoops.


The Jackal 1 PurdueBrad 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Claphamsa

Abe 1 ntndeacon 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

PackerFanatic 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Telle 5 Telle

Hoopsguy 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

Lathum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Criticized 5 Telle Criticized

Poli 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Telle

Dubb93 1 Eaglefan 2 Eaglefan 3 Saldana 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Autumn 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Claphamsa

Chief Rum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

DaddyTorgo 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Saldana 1 dubb 2 Hoopsguy 3 Telle 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle


Going to be referencing this in a second ...

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93 (Post 2028596)
If you look at the vote after the Martin vote for Telle there was a huge run on her. I think we may find some wolves in the voters after Martin placed his vote on her. I will include myself in the list since I was one of those voters even though I know I am a villager:

Abe
Saldana
Dubb
Lathum
MT

PF

All of these were unvotes EXCEPT for PF. I would look at the ones who unvoted and switched after the Martin vote and I have bolded those names. I have to think there are a couple of wolves in that list.


Abe - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game.
Saldana - had what seems to me to have been a significant vote on Telle on D3.
Dubb - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game. But based on re-read I'm not terribly suspicious of him.
Lathum - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game. In fairness, was criticized one day but I don't recall him putting much pressure on her on D4 (again, correct if I'm wrong)
MT - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game.
PF - also voted for Telle on D4, vote yesterday was not an unvote.

saldana 05-20-2009 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028567)
#2160 - Saldana votes Lerri. He had a good Telle vote the previous day but now is falling in line on Lerri. What changed for him on Telle? This vote never moves.


my vote for telle the day before was based on a post by Barkeep that made me think he was the seer....he said he felt good about voting for her before, but was more excited about it today....he then came up dead and not the seer, so i at that point shifted my thoughts off of her.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:40 PM

Day 5 voters (non-Telle):
Jackal
Hoops (I'm clearing myself, for whatever that is worth)
Autumn
Chief (I'm vouching for him)
Telle (wolf)

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:45 PM

I'm pretty sure my vote today will be between Lathum, Abe, and MT.

Saldana and Jackal are a little further back on my distrust list right now.

I cannot see a situation where I vote for Chief, Poli, Dubb, PF, or Autumn this afternoon.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028543)
I have a PM in to Danny to see if I can address this


How is this working out for you, Lathum?

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 01:57 PM

I'm going to go with Lathum today. I think his role is BS, he has never put any real pressure on Telle, and the "No Vote" thing is actually working out to his advantage to some extent because he isn't having to justify votes.

I recognize that this is a stretch compared to some of the other candidates that have been floated but I think there is a pretty good likelihood that there is a veteran wolf who is letting some of the veteran villagers stick around to help with creating a smokescreen. I trust Chief, Dubb, and Poli so that starts to thin the herd a little bit on who would be the "vet wolf".

The Day 1 vote on EF is about the only thing that I can't quite rationalize with his play right now.

VOTE LATHUM

Autumn 05-20-2009 02:04 PM

Abe, PackerFanatic, Lathum, Poli and Dubb are the only players I don't think I have figured out at this point. I think three of them are wolves, two villagers. Voting history doesn't peg all three of them, but I'll keep looking.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2028649)
Abe, PackerFanatic, Lathum, Poli and Dubb are the only players I don't think I have figured out at this point. I think three of them are wolves, two villagers. Voting history doesn't peg all three of them, but I'll keep looking.


So are you willing to share some of your conclusions on the other players, other than that you think they are villagers?

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028636)
How is this working out for you, Lathum?


Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2028554)
I'll address this here, for the most part I'd prefer discussion to be on the voting analysis, etc... and less on exploring roles, I really don't want any potential reveals to go any further.


--

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:14 PM

Lathum, maybe my vote on you will trigger your condition. One can only hope. But I'm excited about the prospect of seeing your way-cool role out in the open to the benefit of all villagers.

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028658)
Lathum, maybe my vote on you will trigger your condition. One can only hope. But I'm excited about the prospect of seeing your way-cool role out in the open to the benefit of all villagers.


seriously, fucking stop putting words in my mouth.

I never said it was way cool. I said it is helpful to the village.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:19 PM

OK, then I hope that I'm helping the village by voting for you.

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:19 PM

Clever set up by hoops btw. I highly recommend you guys not following him, amazing he waited until there's a day I can't vote to come after me.

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028668)
OK, then I hope that I'm helping the village by voting for you.


you wanna go down that road then that's fine. But there is zero chance it will be me getting lynched tonight.

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:21 PM

and FWIW the guy leading the charge against me has maybe the worst voting record this game, while I have had a hand in 2 key votes damning wolves, but Hoops has found a clever way to circumvent that point.

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 02:22 PM

solid analysis hoops - and i can't fault your thinking i might be wolfish - hasn't been my strongest game. i can honestly admit i've been a bit...distracted by life.

fact is though that i'm just a villager, albeit one without any particular use to the village at this time. so voting me out would just cost a villager, nothing more, nothing less.

Abe, Telle, and PF seem to be the commonalities between hoops' list and autumn's list.

I have to add to that that I am somewhat suspicious of Poli as well - his strong push for Telle could easily be a wolfish tactic designed to draw trust after they decided to cut her loose.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:22 PM

Lathum, if you are in fact a villager that cannot be lynched then that sounds really, really beneficial to the village.

There is no listed wolf role with that power, so we would see that you are a villager.

BTW, I was stunned that Pass did not duke you the last time that you said that you would not be getting lynched when you picked up a vote. I'm hoping he will answer why he did not go after you immediately after reading that back on Day 3 or 4 (whenever it was).

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 02:24 PM

like i said - i really think we need to get this hoops vs. lathum thing figured out. the way they're going at each other, one/both are likely wolves.

so in the hopes of that getting going - subject to change later of course

VOTE HOOPSGUY

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2028677)
Abe, Telle, and PF seem to be the commonalities between hoops' list and autumn's list.


I would hope that Telle is on everyone's wolf list by now :)

So, what name did you mean to have listed there?

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028679)
Lathum, if you are in fact a villager that cannot be lynched then that sounds really, really beneficial to the village.
.


do you think thats the case?

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:28 PM

This game has just moved into 10th for all-time posts. Assuming we have a couple of days left, this one might find its way up to 4,000 posts.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028690)
do you think thats the case?


I'm going to be very surprised if you have a role that allows you to circumvent a lynch, either by negating it or redirecting it. We already had a public duke role in the game.

Danny 05-20-2009 02:30 PM

As of 2879

2 Hoopsguy - Saldana (2842), DaddyTorgo (2879)
3 Abe - Autumn (2782), The Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854)
1 Lathum - Hoopsguy (2866)

Yet to vote Poli, Chief Rum, PackerFanatic

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028692)
I'm going to be very surprised if you have a role that allows you to circumvent a lynch, either by negating it or redirecting it. We already had a public duke role in the game.


so when you said you think you are helping the village by voting me you think I am a wolf?

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:32 PM

Danny, Jackal unvoted me and voted Abe. It should be 3-2-1.

Hoops - Saldana (2842), MT (2878)
Abe - Autumn (2782), Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854)
Lathum - Hoops (2866)

2713 Autumn votes Jackal 1-0
2726 Hoops votes Jackal 2-0
2731 Jackal votes Hoops 2-1
2758 Hoops unvotes Jackal 1-1
2759 Saldana votes MT 1-1-1
2766 Dubb votes Chief 1-1-1-1
2767 Autumn unvotes Jackal, votes Chief 2-1-1 Chief over Hoops/MT
2782 Autumn unvotes Chief, votes Abe 1-1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Chief/Abe
2784 Dubb unvotes Chief 1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Abe
2792 Jackal unvotes Hoops 1-1 MT/Abe
2842 Saldana unvotes MT, votes Hoops 1-1 Abe/Hoops
2853 Jackal votes Abe 2-1 Abe over Hoops
2854 Dubb votes Abe 3-1 Abe over Hoops
2866 Hoops votes Lathum 3-1-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2878 MT votes Hoops 3-2-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028697)
so when you said you think you are helping the village by voting me you think I am a wolf?


Correct.

Danny 05-20-2009 02:33 PM

Ok, fixed

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028685)
I would hope that Telle is on everyone's wolf list by now :)

So, what name did you mean to have listed there?


Whoops

Abe, Lathum, PF is what I guess I meant to say.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2028703)
Whoops

Abe, Lathum, PF is what I guess I meant to say.


PF is not on my list.

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 02:34 PM

oh wow - i didn't realize there were 3 on abe - must have missed that

DaddyTorgo 05-20-2009 02:34 PM

then idk what i meant - i had a third name that seemed suspect to you both, but i forget hoops

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028701)
Correct.


well you made it sound like by voting me you were helping the village by triggering my ability, 2 very different things

Danny 05-20-2009 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028691)
This game has just moved into 10th for all-time posts. Assuming we have a couple of days left, this one might find its way up to 4,000 posts.


Wow, hopefully everyone has had fun, though 4,000 seems a bit out of reach :)

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:39 PM

Assuming that Chief is willing to back me up in the same way that I have him, I think the wolves are going to be in a tough spot tonight. We both have pretty lousy voting records, so you would want to leave one or both of us around to be patsies later in the game. But if people actually believe us then they have a 2-man COT that has emerged even after they got the seer out of the way. Which is significant both for today with 10 people and tomorrow with 8 people.

Of course, their best course of action is to convince the remaining villagers that I'm full of crap and that I'm a spinning wolf. If the villagers lynch me or Chief, that saves the wolves having to do the dirty work themselves.

Anyway, should be interesting to watch the rest of the way however it unfolds.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2028708)
well you made it sound like by voting me you were helping the village by triggering my ability, 2 very different things


I was being flippant; I do not think that you have an ability to trigger that is going to help the village after 5 1/2 days of it lying dormant.

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:42 PM

so Hoops, you think my day 2 exploits were just a ruse as a wolf to try and build trust with 19 people left and the seer still alive to scan me since I was acting so strangely?

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:46 PM

Yes, if you are a wolf then I'm guessing you are the cunning wolf. I had minimized this possibility earlier in the game but I've come back around to it after the last few days of votes and posts by you.

hoopsguy 05-20-2009 02:48 PM

But honestly, I'm not all that worried about what wolf role you hold as long as you are a wolf. If you are a villager then I'll guess it just goes onto the list of times I've been wrong this game. Which are well documented already.

Poli 05-20-2009 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2027997)
I'll start here - Poli, you obviously are not seer, BG, or duke so you can't role reveal. But was your determination to get Telle yesterday purely gut-driven or was there something more that led you in that direction?


A little bit of both. I wish I could go into more detail.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028609)
#2452 - Poli continues his crusade against Telle, was started the night before when he called out for others to join him on the vote. At some point I would love to know how he was so sure when he wasn't the seer.

See above comment.

With that, I'm struggling with where to put my vote. I'll make a decision soon. I'll be working out and heading off to church later tonight.

Lathum 05-20-2009 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2028724)
Yes, if you are a wolf then I'm guessing you are the cunning wolf. I had minimized this possibility earlier in the game but I've come back around to it after the last few days of votes and posts by you.


thats such a standard response and c'mon, on day 2 i'm not making a crazy play as a wolf.

I think it more likely you want us to waste a day today so you guys can get an extra kill tonight.


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