That's one of the hopes I have, as well - I think people are going to be voting early precisely because of these scares. There might not be a time when Trump actually leads in the states he needs to. There's no perfect time to call for a win if you're never ahead. That said, I wouldn't bank on it.

SI

That's what Barr's working on. Shit like the Luzerne County stunt are done to call all the voting into question.

Yep. That's a real shut down, but a lot of places didn't do that, did it haphazardly and at various strange times. Georgia, for one, never had a mask mandate (and the Governor tried to block cities from implementing their own. A lot of areas in suburban and rural GA openly defied limits on restaurants with no repercussions. And then the shutdown was lifted in 3 weeks while cases were rising (which also led to some people from other states flowing in).

If we all did the shutdowns as you note Boise did with a mask mandate for a month or month and a half things would have ended up much better. Even better outcomes would be if we started the shutdowns a week or two earlier than most areas did.

Agreed. To really have the kind of results most here are looking for, we would have needed to have a unified national plan - which isn't how our system works really, but consistent and responsible messaging would have gotten us closer to that - and much better competence & willingness when it comes to tracing and testing.

When I see shit like this, I start to think that the only thing that might keep me from voting on election day is because I get arrested for punching some dumb motherfucker in the mouth on the way in because he decided to get in my way.

My county typically goes 90% Republican, just FYI. And yet I can completely see stupid fuckers taking this seriously to keep the one Asian family, the 5 Latinos and the 2 black guys from voting blue twice.

This article seems to be a decent summary of the points being discussed here

China has almost eliminated Covid-19. What can the world learn? | WIRED UK

Definitely going to be some people shot on Election Day.

BiDeN IS iN MEntAlly dEcLIne:

Bill Maher created one of the best ads for the Democrats, ever. �� pic.twitter.com/30hc0nHcf6

— Mystery Solvent (@MysterySolvent) September 26, 2020

I honestly hope that is not the case, no matter how it goes, but when you have leadership that stokes the flames the way he does, it is sadly a strong possibility.

Right. That is where we are headed, and when he 100% declares victory "on election night" as he looks to be ahead in a variety of swing states based on in-person voting counted so far (not not all the mailed-in ballots having been counted yet), that will be the specific point in time that the moths remember. Suddenly the Americans who voted by other fully legal means will be criminals, illegals, fraudsters, and the like, and the Trumpster moths will argue with clear throats that those voters should all be ignored, if not prosecuted.

I am mortified at the prospect of "who has the guns in the right place" becoming what matters. But if you're not afraid of that as a potential outcome here, you're whistling past the graveyard.

Saw a good one on Twitter this football Saturday morning from the MediasTouch guys. Opens with full football stadiums full of cheering fans and then shows two together with the number 100,000 on each, the capacity of the stadiums...and how many have died from COVID-19 so far

A federal judge has ruled, in a case that might give precedent to other Trump appointees, that the the commisioner of the Bureau of Land Management, served unlawfully for 400+ days by not being confirmed by the Senate and that all actions he undertook may not be legal either. Very happy to see this because the guy's done some pretty horrible things as Commisioner and is as racist and conspiracy-filled as Trump it looks like:

Judge removes Trump’s public lands boss, William Perry Pendley, after governor sued – The Colorado Sun

That's really promising if it stands. We need to be fix the damage done by Trump's cadre of "so-and-so serving with the duties of a (position that's supposed to be confirmed)" that is such a naked end around of Congress.

SI

Turns out Dems could do more than tweet if they really wanted to.

Somehow the NYTimes got Trump's tax returns. A lot is going to come out, but here's the first morsel.

Just Posted: The NYT has obtained the president’s tax return information for thousands of personal and corporate returns going back decades. Here’s our first story. Watch this space for additional articles in the coming weeks. @russbuettner & @mmcintire https://t.co/0FJt4VkqWt

— Susanne Craig (@susannecraig) September 27, 2020

Sigh.

"You mean he's corrupt and sketchy? We had no idea."

Well that will certainly change the vote of literally anyone.

(It won't actually change the vote of literally anyone)

The only thing Trump could do to lose votes at this point would be to back down on the SCOTUS nominee and/or nominate a moderate.

Of course, there's not much he can do to gain votes either, which is why it's still a bit of a problem for him.

The tax returns might steal some news cycles, which is something, I guess. But Lord knows that October is going to be crazy season this year - there's going to be some weird crap thrown at the wall to see what sticks and I have no idea what that is going to be.

SI

Nothing is a safe bet. I think at this point the election simply comes down to what percentage of votes are counted.

I just had a preview of Thanksgiving on a call with my parents. I don't live in Louisville but I work downtown. They asked how long it would be until it was safe to go back and I told them that aside from a few isolated incidents, not much has happened. They reacted like I told them WWII was a small skirmish on an island in the Pacific, informing me that there was a ton of violence and that I need to stop watching "the alphabet channel." When I explained that I don't watch infotainment news and that this is a local news story for me that dropped off as the headline story about 2-3 days after the announcement, they told me I was crazy and should not go to work any time soon.

Meanwhile, my employer - who owns several buildings in downtown - is opening our offices as usual tomorrow morning. But of course, Fox News knows better...

Welcome to Portland.

My wife's younger brother came to visit this weekend and my wife's step-dad called last weekend to make sure it was safe for him to fly up with Antifa and BLM running up and down the coast starting fires so I get it.

As tax fraud comes out this is going to be very bad news for Trump. NY prosecutors don't give a shit about persuadable voters.

But his bigger problem is going to be the hundreds of millions in loans coming due with seemingly little way to pay them other than selling his properties.

The grifter will come up with some way to have his base build a go fund me to pay off these

Dude, he will just get another loan. This has been his m.o. for decades. Borrow to pay for other loans, file bankruptcy if you can't borrow more. This is how the rich stay rich.

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That's pretty easy if he's still the President, but if he's not...

That was the best political ad I have ever seen.

I like Doug Jones but he doesn't have much of a shot. Hopefully, if Biden wins, he has room for someone like him in the administration.

Literally the best political ad Doug Jones possibly could have run.

It has been about 25 years since the campaign for the 2016 election but didn't POTUS say he was going to fix the tax laws because he knew all of the loopholes and had been using them to avoid paying taxes? Did I dream that?

JPhillips, I hate to break this you, but he was doing this before he was president. He has filed bankruptcy several times, and yet banks still give him billions in loans. People like him never end up holding the bag, and he won't this time either.

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He's lost all of his domestic creditors and now has to rely on pretty shady foreign sources. They won't just refinance for a guy on trial for tax fraud. He's uniquely fucked because he's always been a shit businessman and he actually has lost the ability to get money from most banks.

(I realize I have several posts from last week that I should reply to. Busy times. Will try to get to it tomorrow.)

Meanwhile...Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale barricaded himself while armed in his Ft. Lauderdale home and threatened to harm himself.

He's been taken to the hospital and held under the Baker Act which is the Florida equivalent of a 5150 psychiatric hold

https://t.co/bEvAYLeAqv

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I found a looter.

Gee, I wonder if he did anything illegal.

A handful of months ago I would've insisted that Parscale was the person most entrenched in the Trump carnival.

so far I’ve seen two pretty liberal attorneys (one a friend from HS, the other on Twitter,) who are saying that this isn’t illegal, but is a commonly-used-by-the-wealthy legal loophole that only the super rich can afford to employ, and it points to how broken the system is.L, but probably not to a xrime

I'm sure FOX News will shortly be beating the drum about this isn't illegal and it actually shows how smart a businessman he really is .

Cocaine is a helluva drug

Man, that's pretty horrible-I'm glad he didn't hurt himself or his wife and is getting the help he needs now.

And a big FU to the all the people on Twitter cheering this news

Nono, I meant Parscale. This sounds like a flip-out after a realization of "oh crap, I'm screwed."

ahhhhh. Got it.

yes, and yes

Nothing to celebrate. Does suggest a guilty conscience, though.

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I think his real legal problems will come from using different valuations depending on what benefitted him the most. All of that in writing is a nightmare for the whole family.

I've just assumed that there are so many loopholes for this sort of crap if you're rich. I'm not sure how much they'll find that is illegal /illegal/. Not in a tax return, anyways. Though that might give some state attorneys general some juicy spots to go looking if they want to dig deeper into his finances. I mean, we should sure as hell be mad that a supposedly billionaire hasn't paid any taxes in a couple of decades but we'll get distracted by some jangly keys and/or "well, he's just smart".

SI

Agree, it's just sad that people would celebrate something like this. As contentious as these times are and as much as I despise so many associated with the Trump circus, I don't wish anything bad on any of them. It is the most basic of human tenets, that should be foremost in any decent humans mind.

Since we all know the official stance on Trump's taxes will eventually switch to "he never said he didn't pay taxes.", then to "he didn't pay taxes, but it doesn't matter." and eventually settling on "he didn't pay taxes, but that's smart!".....how much of a dipshit do you have to be to still openly buy in at "fake news"?? Asking for a half-dozen Facebook friends.

Also, there is a non-zero chance Trump just shuts down & walks out in the middle of a debate, right?

Someone tell me if I am wrong here. According to the article, Trump owes 400+ million in personal loans. There is a mortgage on Trump Tower that is of 100 million dollars. Even if that is on top of that intial loan money (which I think it is), isn't Trump Tower worth somewhere in the neighbor hood of 600-700 million dollars? Heck, it was worth $300 million when he originally bought it a couple of decades ago.

Is this story either ignoring the increasing value of his properties? I am not saying it is right he didn't pay taxes (it is shady as crap), but isn't his actual wealth in the real estate he owns? Some of those he might lose money in a sale, but not many.

In case you are wondering how this is playing on GOP facebook, I am seeing lots of memes about how if protesters choose to stand in the road, then they must actually think that their lives don't really matter that much.

Sorry, I know it's inappropriate but that made me laugh. "If BLM, why you standing in the street?" :D

This isn't Trump related directly, but I remember reading kind of a fun article where the writer tried to figure out who the "poorest" person in the world was. Acknowledging that real poverty means living on the street without food, the article instead just went with the definition of "lowest amount of money."

The writer decided that the "poorest" person in the world was this French businessman who had lost a ton of money and then kept going into debt to keep a pyramid-like scheme going and by the end of it, he was $5 billion in debt. He, of course, was living like a high-wealth European businessman the whole time.

The point being, you have to actually be pretty rich to be one of the poorest people in the world.

If he has a mortgage on those properties, he doesn't necessarily own them outright.

I expect he could sell enough property to pay his debts, but if he does it opens up new problems. First, what are the properties worth? He says the golf courses are long-term money losers, so if that's true, what can he get for them? If they are really money makers, does he open himself up to tax fraud? Second, the easiest properties to sell are going to be the best earners, so every thing sold makes it harder to keep a positive cash flow going.

This is where I think Ivanka was initially smart. Her brand was built to provide her own source of income because I expect she was smart enough to see that the Trump empire may not be around in ten or twenty years. She's in trouble now, because her brand was built for the suburban woman that has moved from the GOP to hating all things Trump, but it was a good idea.

Don Jr. can maybe ride the outrage machine forever, but Eric better figure out something or he's going to end up managing a chain of Motel 6 in the Sun Belt.

It’s not entirely incorrect to say that he ran for President, in part, to escape his creditors.

Grudging respect for the hustle.

The talking point rolling out is business like Apple and Amazon pay no taxes.

Gaslight in overdrive

LOL Nothing Matters.

But I can't imagine that the GOP-leaning captains of industry are psyched that the talking points to save Trump are all going to be some variations of "rich people and big corporations never pay taxes, so no big deal."

They have spent a lot of time over the last 5 decades trying to convince us that rich people actually pay their fair share (or even more than their fair share). Indeed, you could argue that the one consistent GOP message has been trying to convince us all that "rich people already pay a lot in taxes."

Kind of amazing that they will give that up in a heartbeat to make a story that wasn't going to move the needle anyway slightly less embarrassing for Trump.

It is a party beholden to one man.

Which, whatever. But if you are going to do that, why pick such a shitty man?

Every day the conversation is about Trump is a bad day for Trump.

You think the Times was like "hell, let's get this out there now because in a month, it's not going to matter because we'll already be 4 ever escalating crises down the road and this won't even make the front page"?

SI

Since when?

The conversation has been all about Trump politically since say late 2014?

Seems to have worked out well so far.

Didn't work out in the midterms. Also, the conversation was not about the Trump at the end of the 2016 campaign. It was all about Hillary.

Yes. Look at his approval number and the time where he has gone up a bit correspond to the times when he's been relatively quiet.

Which is why the Trump campaign is trying to make such a big deal about Biden "going dark" time and time again because they know he's taking the smart tack of "when you're opponent is doing more harm to himself than you could do to him, you just sit back and let him hang himself."

And Biden is actually preparing for the debate while Trump says he doesn't have any idea what he'l do tomorrow night.

I'm guessing a non-zero amount of Biden debate prep time has gone into things you'd never have thought of in the past: "what do you do if walks off the stage (i.e what do you do/talk about/one-liner)?" "what if he takes a swing at you/tries to gnaw your ear?" The type of stuff, say, George W Bush, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, John McCain, or Mitt Romney never had to. I mean, there was the weird Trump stalking Hillary on stage thing.

SI

I saw someone actually break down what he owes versus wealth. He is actually in total (including mortgages on properties owned and partially owned) $1.1 billion in debt. His actual yearly income from the properties is somewhere in the neighborhood of $215 million dollars annually. Most of the debts he has not even touched the principle on, so it looks unlikely he would be able to pay off the debt when they come due. Except...
The total value on the properties is roughly 2.2 billion dollars. So, he is still technically a billionaire. Further, most of these loans are very low interest rate loans that are easily going to be rolled into new loans when needed and long as property values don't plummet (and of course if they do, he will just file bankruptcy and start over like he has done many times before). The idea he is broke is laughable.
It is just another prime example of the rich not being like the rest of us.

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HA!

Ivanka talking to Jared about the New York Times story. pic.twitter.com/tpfzdWm1Nk

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) September 28, 2020

Ron Klain, one of his preppers, said debating Trump is like playing at Carnegie Hall while someone in the front row blows an air horn.

Trump did not lose during the midterms. He was not on the ballot. Yes Republicans lost the house, but they ended up strengthening their hold on the Senate. I guess we can say that Clinton lost as opposed to Trump won. Six of one, half a dozen of the other as far as I am concerned. The reality is Trump became the president so he won that and has won the spoils that come with that. His approval numbers have stayed the same for his entire presidency good or bad. We have said that over and over again. He was not removed from office after being impeached. Is that a loss or a win. The most recent example, he has talked openly about putting another Justice on the Supreme Court and despite the disapproval of the majority of Americans, he won that too IMO

My point is he has made it to this point by making sure everyone talked about him no matter what. I have heard enough people tell me that the talk about him is a main reason for their support for him, that I have decided to listen. He has been rewarded for that talk. He may lose the election in November but that has not happened to him yet.

Even the Trump cmpaign as been cleat that they don't want the election to be about Trump. That's why they hope the SCOTUS fight could be a positive electorally. Trump can't win, al leat in an honest election, if the voters are casting ballots on a Trump referendum.

The GOP literally has no platform and Trump has been asked multiple times what he wants to do in term 2 and has no answer, so it's hard for him or the GOP to turn this into a policy fight. Tey've tried Biden's health, socialism, Hunter Biden, all to little effect so far. In 2016 people weren't voting on Trump or someone else, but now we are, and given his approval ratings, that doesn't favor Trump.

The president is always symbolically on the ballot during midterms. Not literally of course, but practically speaking that doesn't matter. The Senate issue was a case of what seats came up and which ones didn't; Republicans did significantly worse than the historical average for midterms, and during a good economy.

I still see no reason not to look at the reality of how people have voted since '16. Every vote has been bad for Trump in comparison to that election. Midterms, special elections, etc. Biden is polling better than Clinton was without as many negatives. There aren't nearly as many undecideds to swing one way or the other at the end. It's possible Trump could win, but virtually all the evidence points the other way.

Well it is true. The takeaway should be how this is a system where the wealthiest people don't really have to pay taxes.

He's a drunk wife-beater who will hide behind fake suicide threats to get out of trouble.

Totally true, just not really comparable under the title of the current expose, issue. It deserves a topic all it's own.

A teacher is only allowed deduct $250 a year in school supplies when they average spending ten times that. Trump wrote off $70,000 for hair cuts. That should be the take away. His tax returns highlights how the system is rigged against everyone but the Uber rich.

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Got this out before the ink on the tax return story was even dry
https://twitter.com/TeamJoe/status/1...132157928.html

I have received a half dozen or so applications for absentee ballots--all, I think, from the same source. My wife has received....zero. We both registered to vote in NC on the same day back in 2014, a few weeks after we moved here. She registered as an R; I registered as an I. (She has since changed hers to I because Trump.) We're not sure if it's because she's a former R or if it's because she's white and I'm black, but today I googled the group that sent the latest one (yesterday...but again, I think they've all come from this same place,) and here's what I found:

Some NC voters are receiving unsolicited absentee ballot requests | wcnc.com

Maybe they just know how awesome you are, Ben.

I have gotten multiple absentee ballot requests atom both sides. I will say it is as mostly democratic groups, but at least two were Republican.

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USA Today wrote a long article fact-checking a known satirical website's (Babylon Bee) article that the 9th Circuit overturned RBG's death. Their conclusion? It's satire.

WTF life are we living right now?

The perfect example of if you say something enough it becomes true.



Two rural towns, population 30K and 23K respectively in Pima county situated just about halfway between Tucson and the border with Mexico. Two people right in Trumps wheelhouse, rural, elderly whites whose main source of information is likely Fox news and who live in places where fear mongering "border militia" are active.

Arizona is the literal definition of a purple state and after this election we will likely have 2 democratic senators and a legit chance to flip the vote for president blue. But this state is full of people just like this, in their little bubbles who believe the words of the most prolific prevaricator to ever occupy the Whitehouse, over any facts you can present to them.

Biden and Harris get their tax returns out so that should be a fun topic tonight.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/joe-...al-debate.html

Good gravy. NBC just had a segment with Ohio voters, including some old, fat farmers who are happy for their subsidies and are convinced COVID was sent from China to aid in taking us over.

Four years from now I doubt news organizations will be running stories on Biden voters that are still Biden voters.

@BYU

That's my grandfather. He felt that way back in 1992 when Clinton won. He moved back to WV, where he grew up, from MD because he was tired of living in a state that supported Democrats. Democrats always cheat and rob the good Republicans.

I had a conversation on Saturday with a retired schoolteacher from rural PA who now lives in NC. She is 100% convinced that the virus “will just go away after the election. We will never hear about it again. It’s just about the election. That’s all it is.” Fox has really done a number on these folks. Brainwashed,

Just a remarkably dumb country

Sadly yes and one that allows for that dumb minority to actually pick who gets to be president even if they don't win the majority of votes. Don't get me wrong here, trump is a HUGE outlier, the proverbial exception to the rule, that's why this election is so damn important. At least Bush seemed to care about America.

I read this article also. The quotes from the people interviewed are straight out of Fox News. I hear it all from my mother in law. It is nothing short of brainwashing.

Those folks have failed to account for every other country & person on the planet but will still insist that they've got everything figured out.

Trump gets eyeballs, so I get it. Gotta get dem clicks.

But it is still strange how we've gotten so many "news" stories that are just "here are people telling you why they like Trump."

I mean, can you see how weird that would be with any other politician? If there were just "These people are voting for Bush; let them tell you why" stories?

It gives Trump tons of free advertising. And it feeds into the myth that this person who has 95% GOP approval is still somehow an outsider. That it is newsworthy to find people who support him.

Appreciate Trump reminding everyone 3 seconds in elections have consequences.

Jesus. Out of the gate trump sounds like a moron.

Trump talked in a circle for 2 minutes. He did zero prep.

I know Biden is a stutterer, but, he seems a bit nervous.

Chris Wallace needs to get control of this or Biden will never be able to make a point

Good lord, trump is just god awful.

Man, Trump is bullying and Joe doesn't seem to be able to handle it.

:(