I get all that, and I think the GOP realizes how close they are to a generation or two of minority rule, so there isn't much they won't do to make that happen. I just don't think there's much about the Biden campaign that merits criticism. He's leading in every poll. He up in almost all the swing states, and that includes GA. He's within the margin of error in TX. I'd love to see him up by twenty, but that isn't going to happen. He and his team have done a very good job so far.

You can add this kind of stuff to albion's list:

������Russian journalists have discovered data from Michigan voter data rolls—including the personal info of 7.6 million Michigan voters—on a Russian hackers’ platform. It also includes voter info from other swing states, including Florida and NC https://t.co/EIiWioTbkF

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) September 1, 2020

Yeah, voter suppression fuckery and voting hackery - those are the two giant wild cards more than anything else.

SI

My brain tells me that he has fucked this up so badly that the folks who elected him in 2016 aren't going to vote for him again. Fear tells me he's still going to win because he's going to cheat to do it.

At the very least, let's hope the Senate gets flipped. That way he can be impeached again and get convicted this time. No Senate to save his ass.

Have to be convicted by 2/3rds to be removed from office, though. And that's never going to happen.

SI

Then we're fucked. :(

Again, I think people take for granted that the electoral college will favor Trump. It might, but I don't think it's certain that will happen. The electoral college favored the Dem candidate in the three Presidential elections before 2016. The last two times it favored the GOP just happened to be when it was deciding for the election, so people remember that more.

Biden is certainly a better electoral college candidate than Hillary. His performance in the swing states during the primary is strong evidence of that. Now Trump could still have an advantage and win on an electoral/popular split if it gets really close. But I feel like it'd have to be a more narrow popular margin than Clinton had in 2016, since Biden will certainly outperform her in most of the swing states.

Talked to my parents last night and had to listen to the "big revelation" that only 6% of people who supposedly died from Covid actually died from Covid. I just can't engage with them, knowing the fights and eventual dissolution of our relationship that going down that rabbit hole (and broadly, Trump and all the lies, etc.) would cause. It's selfish, but I work hard to alleviate as much stress and drama from my life as I can, and this would be like pouring gas on the fire.

I missed Christopher Titus's Twitter rant yesterday. Damn. Not too surprising from him, but Jim Gaffigan's rant was unexpected.

I read something over the weekend about perspective, how the riots/protests aren't even as bad as 30 years ago, but it definitely feels like this country is unraveling.

Ugh, what makes me pound my head against the wall that these same people were the ones saying "well it really only kills folks with pre-existing conditions so most folks don't have to worry"... which is what this data says (ignore that a LOT more folks have pre-existing conditions than most people think).

Ya, not as bad as the L.A. Riots, and not close to as militant/violent as the far left activists of the late 60s who helped sweep Nixon into power.

Maybe it has the potential to go that way, but, I don't think so. It's kind of a longer-simmering thing where everybody has mostly found their roles, or are tweaking them. And there's so many more means of expression now.

I know. My wife and I get off calls with our parents and we just let crap like that go and then talk to each other and our kids about not engaging over stuff we disagree about. I honestly wrestle with wanting to confront them, but there would be no going back.

I've been saying it for months, but I am seriously dreading Thanksgiving. It's at our house every year and I just see the confluence of a prolonged fight over the election spilling over into everyone's living rooms in late November. It's kinda hard to tiptoe around it without stepping on a landmine.

I've always wondered what 1968 felt like. I don't think this is it but this is our version of it.

Then again, I stumbled across this Tweet last weekend, talking about what life was like under Nixon and this doesn't sound too dissimilar:
https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/stat...95947122184192

SI

Kerry was close to losing the popular vote and winning the EC.

If he had, then we would have had Bush over Gore while losing the popular vote followed right by Kerry over Bush while losing the popular vote.

That might have been enough for a bipartisan push to eliminate the EC.

Now, unfortunately, the fact that it "helps the GOP" is baked into the cake enough that I don't see Republicans every going along with eliminating it.

dola:

And who really knows who it helps. We have very different elections if the candidates from both parties are in Los Angeles, and NYC, and Dallas and Houston trying to get out the vote.

When we do a family thing like that we verbally tell everyone no politics.

This is fascinating given that nobody prominent has ever said, a series of mini-strokes.

It never ends! Now they are trying to say that your favorite President, me, went to Walter Reed Medical Center, having suffered a series of mini-strokes. Never happened to THIS candidate - FAKE NEWS. Perhaps they are referring to another candidate from another Party!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2020

Just tell them you're not doing Thanksgiving this year because of COVID and see what happens :p

SI

That's a fun confession by the President.

That would have the same effect as discussing politics. Things kinda changed about 5 years ago due to a particular incident I'm not going to publicly discuss, and it's been an unspoken silence between us over politics and certain related social issues every since. To come out and say "no politics" would essentially bring that divide out into the open and cause just as many issues.

Reminds me of the kid who murdered his father and told 911 he couldn't get into the room because the door was locked but that his father wasn't moving or breathing and was bleeding from the mouth. Um... you know that how?

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...950478849?s=21

Just another example of trump being willing to sacrifice others for his own political gain.

Interesting especially in that he is typically a very skillful communicator as a means of persuasion, specifically. It might not suit my temperament or priorities, but he is good at connecting with people, or at least certain kinds of people.

But based on what I think I know about proper messaging and persuasion, you never repeat the allegation as part of your denial. This seems like a blunder, to me. If you're going to reference what people are saying, or you want to insinuate that your rival has a health problem (much closer to the mark for him), then you make at most a veiled reference to bogus allegations, and then flip the script immediately. This puts too much emphasis on the specifics of the claim against you, poorly played.

Yeah Thanksgiving has become the "family holiday" for many of us here. It's now pretty much an uncomfortable holiday for me, as four of my six brothers (and 3 of 4 wives) are pretty staunchily in the Trump camp now. My mother who voted for Trump, now says she was wrong to do so, and is probably in the "Republicans against Trump" groups. The virus has one good thing with it-its kept us apart. Dread thinking what it will be like when we do get together for Thanksgiving in any capacity. Really going to insist on some ground rules before then-no political/current events/election talk, no putting down protesters from either side/no CNN/Fox/MSNBC on TV/phone, etc. I almost hope the virus keeps us apart then too.

For the last few years, when I have gone home to visit, we have a "no talking politics" and "no cable news on" rule.

It works really well.

I have one conservative relative, a brother, and everybody just ignores him when he says something and moves onto something else. It's kind of funny.

I work at a very politely apolitical office in terms of non-work conversation, but whenever someone says something remotely political I just channel the Sopranos and say, "ah well, what are you going to do?" That takes the steam out of that.

I do have friends that would say I'm utilizing my white privilege to avoid talking about politics at work and on social media, and supporting the oppression with my silence and whatnot, and I'm fine with that now. Bring on the privilege. I do my part my way.

If it's true, how many GOP insiders do you think were wishing really hard that the stroke would be bad enough that they would have no choice but to invoke the 25th Amendment. And to be able to do it in a way that did not come off as anti-Trump, but simply a reaction to an unfortunate incident.

I can picture Pence now: "Lord, as always, Thy will be done. But, seriously, how can this not be Your will, right?"

If Biden wins, I'm fucking coming to Thanksgiving with my car wrapped with the Biden logo.

r/oddlyspecific

SI

Who watched cable news on Thanksgiving? There's the parades, endless football, the dog show, movie marathons both Christmas and non-Christmas related. C'mon!

SI

You know the old saying, if you're explaning that your secret trip to the hospital wasn't really a stroke, you're losing.

I just got a routine roundup email from my LinkedIn account, and saw that a former county elected official I know has been re-posting the now viral articles saying that covid is overblown because its victims are technically dying of pneumonia, heart attacks, or other commingled symptoms obviously related to and accelerated by covid. Many are using this as a talking point that covid is "only 6%" of the totals.

Yes, he's a republican, so no shock that he's on Team Red. Why is it noteworthy? HE'S A FUCKING MEDICAL DOCTOR.

Good heavens.

There's a loooot of houses where it's just accepted that Grandpa gets his Fox News and no one ever changes that. You want to watch football, go into the other room commie.

I wish all I had to worry about was cable news. I'm afraid to put on the NBC Nightly News with my parents in the room without drawing at least some sort of under the breath comment or sharp look.

When they visited about a month ago, they asked what channel OANN was on DirecTV (for the TV in the basement where they were staying). I didn't even know DTV carried that channel. Unfortunately, it does.

Since I've been talking about my parents across a couple of threads, here's another - I wonder what the heck they think of Drudge Report? They love that site but it appears Drudge sees the writing on the wall.

Man, my parents can get bent if they want to complain about what I choose to watch for the news if they are in my home.

You're a better person than I am. That whole thing is a big part of the reason why I don't have long conversations, or really any interaction with my Dad and Step-mom. Were it not for blood relations there's only a small life for us to share now. We simply wouldn't be friends in any other situation.

My wife's parents are massive Trumpers (ironically in 2016 they were hold my nose and vote for Trump because they really preferred Rubio). Visiting for Thanksgiving 2 years ago I was told I could watch anything on the TV except for the NFL - this was because Kap kneeled. But they also didn't have cable, so no Fox News thankfully.

It really is like drug tolerance.

FoxNews isn't giving a strong enough hit anymore. So you switch to OANN.

My concern is that Democrats always seem far more concerned with winning over voters that don't exist instead of getting their base out to vote. I thought the convention was a terrible missed opportunity to build the party long term.

Yeah, no NFL because they didn't want politics in their... something?

SI

It's like they blamed the NFL for not firing Kap and Reed on the spot.

It helps that they've never been sports fans, so they could easily turn their ire onto something that didn't matter worth a damn to them.

I imagine that it is like fans when a favorite player decides to hold out or switch teams.

One day, you are naming your pets after him.

The next day, you are burning his jersey and going on social media to tell him you hope he blows out his knee.

I am sure Drudge is the same way. He has switched teams, so fuck that guy. Can you believe we ever used to take him seriously?

It's like that moment that hard core porn just isn't good enough and you need to really get freaky.

You're supposed to follow that up with "...or so I've heard" ;)

SI

That, and Trump has complained about Fox News a few times so it's time to get the purer stuff.

oh no someone is putting horse medecine fentanyl into the street drugs
the fentanyl is showing up in lots of supply chains
we're seeing fentanyl now in the bloodwork of most of our ODs
dealers are starting to tell people they've got fentanyl mixed in
people are demanding fentanyl in their stuff
people are asking for straight fentanyl
now there's carfentanyl thats much stronger than fentanyl
where do i get the super fentanyl

"Some people say....."

"They tell me...."

Susan Collins has become more Susan Collins than anyone thought possible.

dola

what if we just did all the corruption?

The eviction stuff is going over my head. What is the issue there?

The WH won't negotiate with Congress so they are directing the CDC to make up an excuse to stop evictions, but only for some income levels, because it will help stop the spread of a disease they don't think is a threat to begin with.

The WH and GOP are going all in on economic policies that cut off Dec. 31 so Biden and the country will be fucked if he wins.

Trump Compares Police Shooting Of Jacob Blake To Golfer Who ‘Chokes’ During Putt


I’m not sure that describing that when police make one bad decision out of thousands (which TBH is a narrative I agree with], people ‘choke’ is the right choice of words right now...

Gotcha. The eviction thing is good though.

It's just a profoundly short-sighted and corrupt way to go about it. We need legislation, but the GOP wants to cripple blue states and a Biden administration more than they want to safe the country from a massive recession.

Given the latest Trump viral video, I assume it's only a matter time before the Soup Nazi jokes fly.

Nobody has not had as many strokes as Trump. Did no one tell him that the first rule of not having mini-strokes club is you don't talk about mini-strokes?

It looks like he is going to use federal resources to help the B1G have a football season.

How much does that impact voters in the swing states involved in that conference?

He just clinched Ohio.

It really doesn't sound like things have changed much at this point according to Big 10 sources. They are saying November, or as late as January from what I see.

But beyond that, how does he justify using federal funds to help Football with so many Americans still suffering? It is beyond belief the shit he does that people try and justify or just ignore.

That said, with Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin in play, it is a brilliant political move.

I mean, maybe. We'll see if Higher Ed makes it until October (see other thread).

If we see it, hopefully the Dems see it too.

They should not agree to any deal that does not contain automatic stabilizers.

The money train keeps rolling until it is no longer needed. Or it does not roll at all.

But rolling it for the GOP but not the Dems should not be on the table.

#strokeahontas

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Because "Bricks are too heavy to throw" #Strokeahontas #TrumpStroke #SoupNazi pic.twitter.com/xj2CN6mvQE

— La̶s̶s̶u̶S (@ThaCyberBully) September 1, 2020

Biden is starting to run ads in Minnesota, which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee in 48 years.

538 had a good article about this. Minnesota is trending Red. In 2018 it actually was more Republican than the rest of the country for the first time in a super long time.

Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red | FiveThirtyEight

I am glad to see that Biden is not making the Hillary mistake of taking traditional Democratic states for granted.

dola:

And, yeah, I'm mad that this wasn't about New Hampshire so that I could make the taking states for granite pun.

So, is your emdedded implication that the Dems would be well advised to just ignore an upper midwest state where the current polling is close, based on the fact that its history suggests it's safe? Haven't we seen that movie before? Like, wasn't that literally the last movie? And the morning after literally everyone agreed it was dumb to start seeding and feeding the blue wave strategy and try to win GA and AZ and so forth without shoring up WI?

I mean, we get it, they voted for Mondale. But it's close now. City stuff. Wypipo stuff. Whatever. Spend some of the money rolling in to remind a few farmers who's fucking them on trade, seems reasonable to me, as an absolute non-expert.

...or, as usual for me, I encourage you to please just read what albionmoonlight wrote in this thread.

They just raised 300 million in a month. There's so much money on both sides they can run whatever ads they want wherever they want. Both campaigns can blanket any state -5 to +5.

No, it is actually a good thing that Democrats across the country should have been enacting. I don't see how this cripples blue states at all. Guy is trash but he outflanked Democrats here and this will help those out of work and struggling due to the pandemic.

Biden can do the same thing when he takes office too ya know?

That’s performance art. She’s amazing.

Trump wants us to know that the trip to Walter Reed was routine and just to complete his yearly physical.

Of course at the time they told us it was to begin his yearly physical.

We're to believe Trump gave up a tee time for his physical and that it was routine even though the Walter Reed staff weren't notified ahead of time the President was coming.

K

Nightmare scenario: Exclusive: Bloomberg group warns Trump will appear to win big on election night - Axios

Everything's a con.

dola

They're doing it again.

DHS withheld publication of intelligence bulletin warning of Russian scheme to push “allegations about the poor mental health” of Joe Biden, per emails and document draft obtained by @ABC. @jonkarl has the full story coming up on @GMA. https://t.co/SM8potR2Nx

— ABC News (@ABC) September 2, 2020

From what I was able to piece together last night, this was not an actual Susan Collins quote. It was a poster paraphrasing her position as if it was a statement and once he threw quotes around it, it took off as if a real quote.

But the fact that it could have been a real quote says as much about her as anything.

I'm thinking of voting in person because of this.

We know that Trump's approval has a hard floor at 39%

I wonder if it also had a hard ceiling.

If he hadn't been a really shitty President, could it have gotten into the 60s? Or do we think that 50 or so was the highest he would ever get?

Isn't that kindof like asking "If I were a genius, playboy multi-sport athlete and superstar actor, would I be named 'world's sexiest man'?" I'm not sure "being a good President" was ever in his toolbox. His best tools are celebrity, breaking rules, and divisiveness. His weaknesses are demanding unfailing loyalty instead of competence, anything detail oriented, and empathy. In what system of government does that actually help one do a good job.

SI

I actually had this same line of thought last week as I was responding to the how are you voting poll on here.

It made me think what would happen if on election night Trump was winning and how that would be handled with all the mail-in ballots which are expected. Nightmare scenario like you said.

Only one poll, but an indication that the riots issue may not work for Trump.

Well, that leaves out the comparison to Biden, right? People might expect an increase in protests and violence if Trump is reelected, but a bunch of people could also buy Trump's argument that if Biden is elected, protests/violence would be even worse than if Trump is reelected.

What is interesting about that is almost an identical number of republicans think it will stay the same or get worse that think it will get better.

Pelosi is an idiot. Why? I know it's "because she can," but why would you risk giving your opponents any ammo, anything to deflect from their incompetence and corruption? Such plain stupidity and entitlement all wrapped up in a convenient video clip.

And what the hell is a blowout anyway? I thought maybe she went to see a proctologist.

This is true, but Trump's message is, only I can stop this. It's always been a tricky message because it doesn't really work for an incumbent. If nothing else, polls like this suggest it's risky for Trump to make stopping riots his main campaign theme.

See, I take his message to be slightly different. He's clearly talking more about Biden/Dems lack of response at all to what's going on, so I think he's putting it more on what they would fail to do (and are failing to do, in Dem-controlled cities) than himself. At the same time, I think he's threatening to use military force, which is the "law and order" piece that Dems object to. I think his re-election would clearly embolden him to do that without the risk of an upcoming election. I think that's what he is telegraphing for the way he would handle this once he has won. He's not acting now because (a) he think it hurts Biden that Dems can't/won't control their own cities and (b) he's afraid it could backfire on him.

EDIT: to add, I think he's also telegraphing that he's fine with vigilantes helping cops right now, doing his dirty work without him having to get directly involved.

Then look at it from Biden's perspective. Biden's mesage is, that guy can't fix things, he'll just make them worse. That message is supported by this poll.

I do think that the major news networks (well maybe except Fox) will know this and won't call anything if the margin is under the absentee ballot numbers.

I do not feel confident about election night or beyond. I have no idea how Trump still has supporters.

The pathway for Trump and similar Republicans is always fear of the far left gaining influence. Just like in the late 60s/early 70s. When the world is crazy and hippie rabble-rousers are making a lot of noise and threatening full revolution, the old conservative morally bankrupt man starts to look more appealing to older people and people in the suburbs who don't want a revolution until at least after they safely retire.

The BLM movement though, has been very inclusive and suburban-mom friendly. I know 538 is saying that America is turning against BLM a bit, but, it's still a mainstream thing and whatever backlash there is isn't close to what it could be in different circumstances. Even my 76-year old mother is into it. And Biden and Harris aren't scary revolutionaries. And I know not everyone agrees with me on this, but I think the non-race-centered far-left progressive movement has been pretty quiet lately in their approach to Biden. It's not like Sanders/Clinton. Maybe because they're winning enough congressional primaries and elections to make them feel like they're making progress. But I just don't get the sense that as many of them are actively trying to ruin things like they were in 2016.

There's a tipping point where there's enough true revolutionaries to turn the tide, but, compared a lot of the last few decades, the economy is pretty good. 401ks have been so strong. Young people are disproportionately struggling, but, they don't vote as much and many of them will find their way in the economy eventually.

I think you also touched on something that is important. Most people know that the far left isn't fond of Biden. They probably also think Biden was the "moderate" in the Obama-Biden ticket. It's pretty hard to taint Biden with the far-left label. So some have tried to say Biden is a puppet for the far left because his mind is gone - but anyone who has seen him give a speech recently doesn't buy that either (Trump tried to say that it was an edited speech, not a live one, LOL). And even if that were the case, why would Biden be a puppet for the far left rather than the moderate left?

Sounds like she was maybe set up. Story I heard is she asked the salon staff and they gave her bad info, then the video/pic was taken the only time she had the mask off.

The thing that annoys me is Trump constantly gets caught in moments like this and the right screams it is just the media painting him in a bad light, yet when it is Pelosi they round up a posse. So hypocritical.

It looks like Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina will be probably be called on election night, as there is early voting, but no mail in (that I can see). I think if Biden wins 2 out of those 3 (or probably just Florida), it will be pretty hard for Trump to claim victory on November 3rd.

If they all go for Trump, I think it is going to be a mess and we are going to be spending weeks looking at voter signatures and listening to lawyers before we know how Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota shake out.

NC does have mail in.

It also, however, has pretty extensive no-excuse early voting.

I would suspect that enough people do early voting that the lack of ballots won't be an issue. The closeness of the race might be, though.

Arizona has mail in too

The head of the CDC sent all 50 governors a letter asking them to clear any hurdles so that vaccine distribution was ready to go by November 1.

I'm very pro-vaccine, but I want to see data before I take this. The Trump admin's word isn't enough.

This isn't just a mask thing, it's the "do as I say not as I do because I'm rich and powerful" thing that has most people riled up. My understanding is salons are shut down yet she got a private appointment.

And Trump gets away with it because he's not being hypocritical, for the most part. He's "telling it like it is" - he doesn't need a mask, he's the President, he has places to go, etc. He's not the one bitching about the other side refusing to follow Covid restrictions and then breaking his own rules. He doesn't want anyone to have any rules and that's exactly how he acts.