If they could, they'd just make it illegal for some people to vote.

Wtf, why does Trump always gotta be a stooge. Do the Saudis have piss tapes on him too?

Free Ubers to the polls

Looks as if Mexico is taking Trump's threats seriously. The new policy seems to be reasonable vs before of just com'on through.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/19/ameri...der/index.html

Here's the place where I disagree; even with all of that, his approval ratings are still quite bad. With the economy doing as well as it is they should be in the 60s. The fact that they are where they are indicates something is dragging them down. Fundraising for the midterms is literally going harder for the Democrats than it ever has in modern American political history. There's almost always a bump to party that's out of power but every projection I see, the polling data, the special elections results all point to this being a historically big wave that way as well.

In other words, there just isn't any evidence that the plusses are enough. Trump has some things on his side with the incumbency and the economy, but what the data really supports is that as good as those things are his negatives are far outweighing them. It'll help him some when(assuming it happens) the Democrats take over the House again because then they'll need to govern in a disciplined manner(no sign of that happening that I can see) or take some blame for not doing it. Based on the data out there so far, the '20 Dem candidate doesn't need to be inspirational or transcendent. They just need to be the slightest bit better than Hillary and not do anything colossally stupid. That really should be an exceptionally low bar that most potential candidates can clear.

Obviously anecdotal here... but I am a Libertarian voter for the past 10+ years that will be voting McCaskill for Missouri Senate just because of Trump's handling of his presidency. Not sure what I will do for president in 2020 I guess it depends who they go with...

Decent candidate: Democrat
No better than Trump: Libertarian
Sanders: Trump :)

Oh and here is probably an example of how not to campaign for Senate. So a guy comes door to door last weekend stumping for the local Democrat for State Senate and McCaskill for US Senate. Instead of just sending him on his way I give my "panerd 2 cents" on the 2016 election and how I will probably vote McCaskill in this election because of how bad Trump sucks. Fast forward to a few days ago and I get a text from "The guy you talked to on your porch asking if I have been keeping up with the latest in Saudi Arabia etc"

1) I didn't give him my phone number and I thought since I don't have a home phone that my cell number was in no way linked to my street address. Power of the machine I guess?

2) Who in the world (even most ardent Dem or Repub supporter) wants text messages from some stranger?

3) Very tinfoil hatish but almost seems like it would be a good Republican strategy to bug people via text posing as Democrats to piss them off. Again who wants texts from a stranger about anything?

My own fault for talking I guess but don't know who would greenlight texting people who didn't ask to be texted.

It's so bizarre to me that door to door campaigning and phone banking are things in 2018, but I guess they must work if people do them.

Personal contact is supposed to be the best way to get people to vote.

That's pretty much me as well. I've voted for Coffman, the Republican in Colorado's 6th every time before this year. I like him, think he's a good rep. Still voting for the Democrat this year though as Trump needs some kind of check.

Same. I have always voted across party lines as I look for moderate candidates and overall I am probably in the neighborhood of 55/45 republican. Straight Dem this mid term, which will be first time ever I have voted one party across the board in an election.

I just really want to see some checks and balances amidst the chaos and in all honesty, with the Dems in control of at least one branch, I can envision some more republicans finally standing up to Trump when he crosses the line or spews one of his lies or baseless rants.

I'll always vote the Idaho Republican AG, I know what he's all about and he backs it up, and I'll vote for incumbent competent unoffensive Republicans who only have a token non-qualified Dem challenger (which happens sometimes in Idaho statewide races). So that means I'm about a 90% Dem voter now. And Idaho is definitely becoming a little more liberal every year, at least in the Boise metro area and pockets like Sun Valley and and Moscow - which together make up about half the state's population. I won't vote for the Trump party anymore unless there's a specific compelling reason too.

My only fear is the Democrats (and Republicans I guess also) misunderstand a lot of the no Trump votes and try to initiate some "mandate" and lead to Trump being reelected for 4 more years in 2020.

As Brian Swartz touched on, Trump has a lot going for him right now with the economy. Usually a president in an economy like this would be incredibly popular. Instead Trump is sitting with an approval rating around 40. He's a recession away from seeing a complete collapse in support and the likelihood of a recession before the 2020 election is probably somewhere in the ballpark of 60%.

I just don't see him being reelected outside of some major unforeseen event that swings his approval ratings up into the mid 50s. I think turnout in 2020 is going to be like nothing we've ever seen and Trump's most lasting impact will be as a boogeyman to scare people into voting.

Re: 1) Both parties have voter lists for things like door knocks and phone banks. He was probably working off a list when he came to your door and then followed up with you.

Re: 2) He shouldn't have done that outside of a formal text campaign by the candidate, but most campaigns and non-profits are finding texting to be 4-5x more effective than door knocking, e-mailing or phone calling.

Re: 3) see above.

My wife and I both got postcards from volunteers for a state assembly race. I knew campaigns were doing this, but I didn't realize they were targeting state races as well as national.

Beats me if Russia has really violated the treaty but suspect the main target is China and continuing to keep up/maintain/extend lead vs China.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/polit...sia/index.html

I'm always worried we might not have enough nukes.

I was browsing SEA news and read about the US Build Act. Don't know all the details but its a good start to counter/duplicate what China is doing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1MD2HJ

Happening more and more with GOP folks.

I appreciate the instant gratification doing something like this but am against it. Not because I don't think they deserve it (some do, not sure about McConnell tbh) but because of the precedence.

I can easily see how many Dems will be harassed over a meal when they eventually come to power, and it can easily expand past dinner shaming to other personal-in-public activities. Things can easily get escalated and really get ugly.

If I was McConnell and like, without bodyguards or secret service protection, I would be carrying.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/polit...ors/index.html

It's fucking stupid, but when the president is up there talking about how assault is the cool thing to do and how you get respect is there any other message that says that it's not the right thing to do?

Yeah, in an ideal world people would rise above, and it is definitely something that shouldn't happen.

But at same time it's not surprising - Trump has set the tone, what did he expect? Hopefully things settle down, but unfortunately I have my doubts tbh

Based off the Republican political add I just saw during the early football game it's only going to get worse, that was seriously the most ludicrous thing I have ever seen.

I'm guessing celebrity politicians were more protected in decades past. Maybe we had an odd era of political civility in the 70s, 80s and 90s, but I'm sure there were plenty of famous politicians who would have been harassed if they ventured to unfriendly places.

Wagner in PA did a Facebook live stream where he told our Gov to put on a catcher's mask cause he was going to step on his face with golf spikes on

The number of wanna-be Trumps over the next few election cycles is going to painful to watch.

So the murder of the Saudi journalist just gets worse and worse. Cut off his hands, injected him with something, put him on a meeting table, and dismembered him. :(


Meanwhile the attempts of the Saudis to cover up what happened gets worse and worse-video out showing a member of the security team who participated in the murder arriving at the consulate and then coming out after it was over, dressed in the journalist clothes and fake beard. He then wandered through a park and a restaurant until the video showed he changed clothes, and then threw something in a dumpster afterwards.

The fat geriatrics acting like tough guys is pure cringe.

Do we really think that this is going to be the thing that changes the overwhelming trend of "nothing matters" here? A non-American, who has neither white skin nor an American-sounding name, murdered by another country, happening somewhere else, and the worry is that our POTUS isn't reacting with the right amount of outrage?

Really... this is going to be the thing that tips people? Makes them wake up from the spell they've been under, or gets them to come out and actually vote? Really?

Just doesn't pass the smell test, and he knows it. People don't care, at least not for long. He'll whimper about a mirage tax cut, or talk about gays, or some other half dozen things on the days leading up to the midterms, and this will be gone for all intents and purposes.

Yeah, I just recently read about a study that said just that. Personal contact and texting gets much better results. They did say, though, it takes a more long term approach, with canvassers working the same area over a longer period of time than the average campaign can do/afford. It was very interesting study, and my guess will lead to more money spent on community organizers and professional canvassers that will be hired out to candidates.

I dunno, this one has legs. Familial tax fraud schemes died in about 3 days. This is going on 16 days or something

This is familiar to people - it's basically the weekly subject of a 48 Hours/Dateline NBC/20-20 episode, or 98% of Investigation Discovery or Oxygen channel programming.

Quoting to be able to repost for the next this.

Hey, you know who else was a nationalist?


For context:


https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...-a-nationalist

Tax fraud is hard stuff. I mean he's probably smart for doing it because it's so hard, so that's good, right? Good for them for beating the system. It's always trying to keep the man down. And yeah, who really cares about a guy who doesn't look like a real american. Clearly, he wasn't smart enough.

I guess Mexico wasn't able to stop the caravan. It'll keep on happening so the US better get a coherent, coordinated policy in place.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/over...chterm=caravan

Is this really a big threat to the US right now? I get that it's dominating the R stump speeches, but is this as big of a threat as, oh, not vaccinating your kids? Flu shots?

Heard snippets of Trump talking about a middle class tax cut. Not enough details to really discuss the pros & cons but something to watch out for to see if it develops.

Trump is like Santa Claus right now, promising/handing out free candy.

Trump's mystery tax cut puzzles Washington - POLITICO

Deficit wasn't ridiculous enough already, let's completely blow it up.

It sounds like he just made it up on the fly. I wouldn't read much into it. He's been lying pretty hard lately and is maybe nervous about how the midterms will go.

Assuming there are no terrorists in the bunch (hah!), taken in isolation, probably not a "big threat".

But long term, if the US welcomes this group of 3,000-7,000 economic refugees, you don't think there will be many more that will come encouraged with the success of this group? And then the question is how many is too many.

IMO, its a valid question on how the US wants to deal with these caravans e.g. holistic immigration reform (all for expanding the guest worker program), the wall, unauthorized/illegal immigration etc.

Probably, but its nice to dream.

The US has always "dealt" with it. trump is acting like there's never been any policy in place for them. Like every president before just opened the gates and said welcome home. That's not an accurate representation at all.

Why would a terrorist march for 1200 miles when they could just as easily start much closer to the border?

Only 10-15%, at most, will reach the border and they will all get turned away. It's a bullshit story, but for some reason the media runs after whatever frisbee Trump throws out there.

I'm genuinely surprised at how the Right has gone full post-modern.

And they continue coming haphazardly so whatever plans we have may have tactically dealt with a particular caravan/event but does it address the broader picture?

It would be good if we came up with a holistic immigration reform plan. I had hopes but Trump's immigration reform plan seems to be just keep the undesirables (his definition) out and threaten to kick out the unauthorized.

It would be good to come up with a plan to address the southern brown people and also the yellow, black, other brown people, and definitely the highly educated all-color people.

This. The last "dangerous" caravan ended up being a couple hundred people who applied for asylum and were rejected or accepted accordingly. This is just appealing to the baser instincts of, well, his base.

All they have to do is come in on a student visa like the 9/11 hijackers.

If only Trump and the Republicans had enough people in place to outvote the Dems for all the brilliant plans they no doubt have for every pressing and non-pressing issue. Things will change after this elections! Down with Mexicans!!!!

I can think of two Scottish "terrorists" who would walk 500 miles. And then 500 more. Just to fall down at the Border Control Point door.