The world comes at you fast.....

Dear MAGA, and Kyle Rittenhouse, I hate messy breakups. I’m sorry to see you go through this.

Even Trump is upset. pic.twitter.com/kuvxriy5sW

— Agent Self (@AgentSelf99B) August 2, 2024

Congratulations to Kamala Harris, who just officially clinched the Democratic nomination. I was a bit nervous about an open convention, but it was the fair thing to do, and I'm glad the Dems did it the right way.

Is that Trump tweet real? So much to unpack. He says Rittenhouse murdered more people than him?

The frame of reference that I always come back to was one of the most vocal and publicized family of defectors from Jonestown. Buried in their story was the fact that what drove them away had nothing to do with the delusional beliefs or actions/murders being carried out, it was seeing Jim Jones personally beat their daughter for 20 minutes...otherwise they probably would've happily stuck around and drank the flavoraid.

No, it's a parody.

If you ever get into cult-survivor stories, there is a lot of that. It will take something traumatic and major generally to get someone to leave, and it is amazing how often even after that they still sympathize with the cult/cult leader.

VP Harris is starting to pack her team with former Obama strategist.

Yeah, and most importantly I think it has to be personal. Watching someone else's kid get beat, or someone else's trauma, won't suffice, it has to effect them directly.

...all of which is to say I don't know if that's possible with this kind of political cult. They are too far removed from the leader to be directly and individually effected with that kind of trauma, and even if they were there's still enough distance and noise in the signal for the cult to spin at as someone else's fault.

lol you mean after they fucked it up in 2016? yeah

This could be interesting. Big hitters in Congress pulling for Walz to be the pick.

House Democrats home in on Tim Walz as Kamala Harris VP choice

Walz is the best option. Keeps the party united and he's down-to-earth. Thought it would be Shapiro but a lot of the stuff coming out on him could bring trouble.

The other difference here is that unlike cultists, who are typically cut off from family/friends and even the outside world, Trumpers are actually just the opposite - many of the most extreme are on social media and otherwise make their love of Trump well known. So there's the necessity of reforming an identity that's complicated by the fact that it's often a public persona, and it's hard for people to give that up because everyone knows what you were before.

I often think that's part of the reason we see people double down on stupidity over and over, because it's much easier psychologically to defend the indefensible than to admit you are wrong.

If you want to read some depressing stuff, check out this subreddit. Filled with people who's family members went down the QAnon road.


Blocked

Suddenly, once Biden dropped out, all these VP hopefuls are out there campaigning. Feels like the longer the choice can be delayed, the better. Does that kill some of the momentum once a lot of these guys know they're not going to be VP?

Agreed. I was for Kelly earlier, but I don't think he is bulldog enough for what you want in VP candidate. He has a great pedigree, but not much bark. Shapiro's popularity in a must win state is nice, but I think he is going to be a huge negative distraction nationally. Walz has the ability to get mean, but he also has a disarming charm. I think he will play well in the Midwest and beyond.




I really do think you will see all of them on the campaign trail with whoever gets the VP nod next week. Most of them are probably looking at cabinet positions in a Harris White House.

I still think we see state level politicians active on the trail because they know what a danger Trump is and they will be thinking about the down ballot races.

Walz has a really good story too. Grew up in a small rural town, went to smaller state schools, and was a high school teacher. He won a red House seat to get started, had opposed the Iraq War, and voted against bank bailouts. I think that will play incredibly well in the Midwest and lure some rural, working class voters. He's a pretty tough guy to attack and seems like someone both liberals and progressives like.

Shapiro is really good off the cuff and would be tough too. He's about as good as it gets for a politician in interviews and debates. But his past is going to be scrutinized much more and used against him. Just seems like a risk when the momentum is shifting in your favor and the vibes are good with the whole party. Democrats love fucking things up so I think he'll be chosen.

Walz was also a Command Sergeant Major in the National Guard.

Have to vote for the guy who got degrees from the same school as Danny Woodhead and Adam Thielen.

Holy crap! If this is true, people are getting fired.

LEAK: Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker accidentally published this video ahead of schedule. She leaked Kamala Harris’ pick for Vice President as Josh Shapiro. pic.twitter.com/zRggINoFHB

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) August 2, 2024

That sucks but Dems gonna Dem.

It looks like it wasn't a leak, but a video made last week openly campaigning for Shapiro to get the job.


Edit: It is totally possible that the VP and her close staff might know who they are going to pick, but there is zero chance it has been told to anyone else including the eventual pick.

Huh? Them freaking out has nothing to do with the points I made.

Kyle Rittenhouse was given proper reeducation. He now supports Dear Leader.

The Shapiro leak being a head fake would inspire a lot of confidence in Kamala's team.

It wasn't a leak. It was made a week ago by the Philly mayor to campaign for Shapiro to be the pick. It had nothing to do with the Harris campaign. Someone put it out today as a "leak", but it had already been out for a week.

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https://x.com/yashar/status/18195018...5_SElWTfw&s=19

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The new attack angle seems to be comparing Kamala to ... Milli Vanilli.

WTF is up with RFK Jr? He picked up a road kill bear and dumped it in Central Park ten years ago.

How much brain can a worm eat before it dies?

My lord that sounds like bad comedy. "Cheryl! Cheryl! I got a dead bear in the car, I'm gonna skin it." but who hasn't done the same while engaged in some falconry?


The more I read about this the funnier it gets.

My understanding is bear meat has a lot of parasites, would explain the brain worms.

What on earth made him think it was a good idea to share this story???

Nothing on earth makes him think. The brain worm is from outer space. Duh.

It sounds like the New Yorker was going to run a story on it and he is trying to get ahead of it.

At this point would Trump even want his endorsement? Would fit right in with the weird narrative.

Nice summary of Kamala’s positions

What Kamala Harris has said so far on key issues in her campaign

https://x.com/106th/status/182023388...3ACgQHlXA&s=19

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Apparently I'm among the unwashed who is unable to view the post from whoever you quoted here.

I can't view it. Whats the jist?

Sounds like VP announcement tomorrow.

I know this is a joke, but it's also a more believable story. He knew his schedule before he picked up the bear and even if things didn't run long he wouldn't have had time to skin and butcher and freeze the bear prior to his flight. I expect the plan all along was to do something crazy with the dead bear. It's very on-brand for the guy that still behaves as if he's the untouchable prince at boarding school.

edit: I guess we should all be thankful that he or someone else didn't just fuck the bear for giggles.

To my knowledge JD Vance has not denied fucking that bear.

I would expect either or both of them to deny it thusly:

I did not fuck that particular bear.

Maga dopes downright gleeful the market is tanking. Really thinking about the middle class.

Rawdogging a dead bear is a great way to naturally build up your immune system

This needs a like button.

Wasn’t he approximately 62 years old at this moment?

PredictIt seems to think that it is either Shapiro or Walz. Everyone else's odds have gone way down.

I don't get the sense that that's based on anything real though. There's just a lot of people speculating about those two, and it seems like when that happens enough, people start to think that it's actual facts.

As always, those who are talking don't know, and those who know aren't talking.

I think there's way too much risk with Shaprio. Walz seems like the safe choice and a great pick to put opposite Vance.

At least it won't be an unknown governor from Alaska...

Walz and Beshear strike me as the two safest picks.

All the reporting yesterday was that she was meeting with "at least 3" candidates, and every news outlet I saw had Kelly, Shapiro and Walz as those 3. So, it's likely 1 of them. If they are going double-stealth mode, I'd say that actually favors Beshear.

Obvious choice to me is Shapiro, despite the risks. He's still extraordinarily well-liked in an important state.

There are good arguments for any of them...

Shapiro - Lock PA and reduce number of states to focus on.
Kelly - Biggest name and zero people dislike him. Arizona might end up more important than PA.
Walz - Folksy and relatable with few enemies.
Beshear - Knows how to make liberal arguments to purple state voters.

Crushes the gains they made with young voters and minorities. Also his coverup of that murder is going to be used by the GOP.

If the guy wants to run for President one day and go through, that's fine. Just not sure why you'd take any risk in this election when Walz or Bashear can do the same thing.

Walz would be the best pick. Shapiro would be the worst so I'm expecting Shapiro.

Yep. Young voters don't want him and unions don't want Kelly.

Beshear and Walz are good picks. I think someone from Minnesota has the potential to help in an area that you need in a close election.

If I'm thinking about this you move with the person that makes the strongest dissimilarity to Vance that you can. Vance is trying to curb the 'everyman' vote towards the party, but you can upend that by pointing to his college, VC and total flip flop in his opinion of trump and how that coincided with power and money. To do that you need a candidate that actually has some of those traits that he's espousing (without having). That would seem to take Kelly out. Beshear sounds good, he's from a state that is now reliably blue, and it neighbors OH (Vance). However, he's got name limitations, he's a cheer leader, but he doesn't strike that everyman vote at all imo.


Shapiro is definitely a politician and plays the political game well. Also from a neighboring state, but he doesn't strike that everyman vibe very well.

Walz does, but he doesn't really bring a state directly into play, but you have to think being from Minnesota that he helps with Wisconsin and Michigan more than Penn or AZ. He actually has the chops to back up his story, and he draws the most distinct line that Vance is trying to claim. He's also a man who looks like someone you could trust in the oval office. He also is good on the mic. His tagline has been very effective and you have to believe that his attitude might be able to come up with even more of those.



Walz is my bet. Or the bet that they probably should be making.

I agree with rainmaker. I think Shapiro hurts the party. Let him run in a primary and the voters can choose. I think Walz or Kelly.

Seems like everybody is considering the VP choice entirely in relation to this election cycle, but this person also gets put in the on-deck circle for the Presidency. With Kamala ostensibly resetting that clock it's not an immediate concern, but does that effect anybody's choice, one way or the other?

I don't think Walz has his sites set on the presidency so it would be a clean field for 2028 or 2032. That would let the younger group battle it out in the primary.

Whoever it is, it seems the decision is officially made.

He literally posted a picture of himself saluting a North Korean general. That is what is meant by "weird."

I have to say I’m torn about this post.

I can’t decide whether it’s more weird, stupid, or psycho. pic.twitter.com/8vyROBfehv

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) August 5, 2024

One of the most embarrassing things a US president has done on the national stage. Not tan suits, not ice-cream, not riding a bicycle. Saluting a North Korean general. Not even returning a salute. Our commander in chief saluted this general.

Look at the look on Mr. Flat-top's head, too. Like, WTF, really?

The problem with Shapiro is instead of spending his time hammering Republicans on abortion and other issues, he'll be playing defense. And if you're trying to hit Trump for being a criminal, it's not helpful to have someone on the ticket who likely covered up a murder.

I think it'll be Shapiro because of donors, but I think it's just a huge unforced error.

I agree with you that I don't see the positives over the negatives. The main thing you don't want your VP to be is a distraction (see Quayle, Dan; Palin, Sarah; Vance, JD).

It doesn't matter and no pick will make a difference in a month.

This story will not be going away. It's actually going to get bigger. PA Supreme Court agreed to hear the case.

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia...cide-manayunk/

Ellen Greenberg’s parents spent $500K and counting to prove their daughter didn’t die by suicide - pennlive.com

That's a nonsense statement because of the reasons I gave here:






How much time and attention will the campaign have to spend dealing with Shapiro's negatives? How will that pick color the view of undecided or wishy-washy voters to other campaign messaging? No poll is ever going to be able to messure that. With razor thin margins, the color jacket Harris wears at a campaign event could make a difference.

I had never even heard about this until it was mentioned today in this thread.

Me either, guess that wouldn't be a good look for her given who she is running against.

I think it's more important for Shapiro than it is for Walz if being President is the goal. Shapiro is going to fade over time as Governor and become more unpopular with Democrats as views shift within the party. Him and friendly donors likely realize that this is a pretty important guy to have on the ticket before that takes place.

LOL. Trump in 2028 is a delusion. Nobody has that kind of attention span. This is the last go-round for that.

Separately, it's mildly impressive that whoever the pick for VP is they haven't managed to get it leaked yet or if it's just not clear that they've signaled who the guy is. The reveal taking place in Philly would seem to make it clear it's Shapiro only because it's the one place where he can attract a crowd that's not likely to go rogue and boo him.

Shapiro wants to be President and this is his quickest pathway. Walz would gleefully be a two-term VP and go back to the State Fair.

Philly just makes sense for whoever the pick is because it is the closest major city in a battleground state to both DC and the campaign headquarters in Delaware.

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Agree. I just don't think Shapiro will ever have a chance to be President if he isn't the VP now. The party is going to look at him much differently in 8 years if he hasn't completely changed the narrative around him by being VP.

If Shapiro isn't the guy, what do you do with them during the reveal? I like the unity pic, but it'll be confusing with everyone knowing he's either the guy or the runner up.

I think it'll be Shapiro. The Philly opening makes sense and Dems always choose donors over voters.

Walz started the day at .28 on PredictIt

He has now taken the lead at .52

Walz already up to .59.

Feels like something is happening.

triple dola

Maybe not. He has reverted back to .53

Wild ride here.

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1...I0e92IIzg&s=19

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That seems more like people buying and selling to bank a small profit.

Serious question: how is what PredictIt thinks relevant on this kind of thing? I don't think it's in my Top 50 of sources in terms of what's actually likely to happen. What don't I know?

Maybe, but it's notable that the consensus has settled around Walz as the favorite. Still lots of movement, but he hasn't gone below .53 since I posted that and is now at .64

I'm not posting it to be an accurate source, but it is interesting to track what people who are putting actual money on the line say. When there's a large PredictIt movement, it can often signal something is going on. Or it could be people pumping and dumping.

I think it is Walz and he should actually be really good in the biggest role for a VP, dealing with Congress. He was pretty popular while in the house and chaired Veterans Affairs. Pretty much the only people who don't like him are the far right who would never vote for a Dem anyway.

It also amuses me that he graduated from the same school as my sisters, just a couple years earlier.

So the original Central Park bear story in the NYT was written by RFKs grand-niece.

Do we need yet ANOTHER Keenedy cover-up/conspiracy story?

Walz making a move on PredictIt

Either rumors out of control or there's fire behind the smoke

dola: I agree that PredictIt isn't the best source of what's going to happen. But it is a good source of what people think is going to happen

Just got breaking news update from CNN saying it's Walz.

Tell me more about Pikachu!

Why is he so creepy with children?

Elon Musk... probably.

Maybe time to move them up in your sources.

There are people in the know that use that site to make money. Eventually, someone big is going to get caught.

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Why? It's no different than the various stock moves they make where nothing bad ever happens to them

Can't believe they did it. Great pick and quite the Vance contrast.

lol

Mike Lee posted an attack video on Walz showing him saying that he went to Menard's alone and bought a filter for his furnace.

They'll need more than that.