Good catch, although that's the only close call between the 70's & Perdue (and the 70's is me being generous to Hal Suit's 60-40 loss to Carter).

Meanwhile, I hadn't thought about Buddy Darden in a while. For those who don't have the foggiest who we're talking about, he first went to Congress to fill the unexpired term of Larry McDonald who died in the KAL Flight 007 shootdown. He then served five more terms in the House before losing to Bob Barr.

And on the point about the conservative nature of that district (both before & after redistricting), consider that McDonald was a Democrat who was also the President of the John Birch Society while serving in Congress.

Pretty interesting trip down memory lane there (for me at least), and a real reminder of why I don't mind admitting that I used to be a (D) and am not one anyone.

You won't give the third parties a chance to build support and get regular ballot access unless we give them the votes to do so. We'll just have the same two party system unless we change. One should vote for the best candidate, not the "lesser than the two parties". Massachusetts is a becoming a pretty interesting state with the moderation of some of the economic policies (just think if the proposition gets passed to repeal state income and capital gain, which I don't think it will) and increasing wealth in Boston. I've read some place that Massachusetts has a growing 5-6% Libertarian base? However, Barr is not on the ballot at this point in the state. I guess they are suing for access.

So, what the fuck is wrong with the women in comfortable shoes in Hilaries posse that can't get over their girl losing? Now since they didn't get their way they are going to pout and vote fro McCain? This is why the damn Dem party is so screwed up. They just can get all their disparate parts to compromise in order to beat the Repubs. If Clintons pissed off disciples screw this up and McCain gets elcted because of it I will chnage my party status to the Republicans next election for good. Who the hell would want these bickering bozos runningthe government they can't even run a party. So disgusting.

I loved Biden calling McCain privileged. Pot, kettle. Like anybody involved in this race actually shops for their own groceries...

Well you should. Any conservative economic policy by definition dictates reducing government debt and spending. Unfortunately, Biden is one of the more hawkish Senators and has never seen an American intervention he didn't support. It's kind of hard to hold down spending while doling out military contracts to anyone who's ever donated to your campaign.

In terms of social issues, Biden's been one of the biggest proponents of the War on Drugs, a program I'll leave for others to analyze should they wish. he's also an unabashed racist, giving a public eulogy for Strom Thurmond earlier this year.

Other than that though, great choice.

But how many would actually vote for McCain vs how many just won't bother at all?

Oddly, it's a similar scenario that McCain faced right up until Obama got the nomination. I can't say I've heard anybody say "doesn't really matter" since then.

And I can't help but chuckle a little (at myself included) at how the worst possible imaginable scenario ("President Hillary") was suddenly dramatically less unthinkable with the lukewarm feeling McCain inspired ... until a far worse scenario popped up.

If the D's lose, it won't be because Hillary's supporters stayed home, it'll be because they managed to present a candidate the R's wanted to defeat far more. Clinton would have cakewalked past McCain if she had survived the battle with Obama, not a landslide mind you, but a relatively easy 55-45 type win. Instead, the D's opted to run a candidate that would have me willing to get off my deathbed to vote for McCain even though I don't think he's worth a bucket of warm spit.

Im sorry but that's doesn't make any sense to do.

Sure it does ... just so long as you consider the alternative far worse than the aforementioned bucket of warm spit.

And lest anybody think I'm trying to be all partisan & stuff in an otherwise relatively discussion oriented thread, it's easy enough to flip the script & create the same dynamic. An Obama supporter might not have given a flip whether Hillary or McCain won in November ... unless (just say) Huckaby or Romney had managed to get the nomination instead. At that point it's easy enough to see them having a whole different view of the importance in getting Hillary elected.

It's pretty easy to stay home if you're "meh" about both choices. But if one you consider one of the choices unspeakably bad then it puts the other in a completely different light.

In the past, candidates have averaged a 5-point bounce after naming their VP running mate, but Obama got no bounce whatsoever, and he is in a statistical dead heat with McCain on the first day of the Democratic Convention.

I'm not sure you'll be able to isolate any VP bounce this year as both picks will far closer to the convention than is normal. I think the real measure will be Friday or Saturday's numbers. If those are flat and if it isn't delayed a few days that could be a problem. Honestly I don't think we can look at the numbers and make any judgments until the at least a week after the Republican convention. The compression of major events is unprecedented and I don't think you can assume the same bounces in this case.

You make some good points; however, I've seen enough election cycles to know that given the horrible state of the economy and the public's weariness of the Iraq war, the generic democratic candidate should be well ahead of the generic republican candidate at this point.

Do you have any clue whatsoever as to the relative wealth of McCain and Biden? It does not appear so....

I assume that gstelmack's 'rich' line is lower than $5 million hence his stance.

That's a good point. I read it to mean that if Obama were to win, it would be a strong affirmation of the Democratic Party platform. Because, as you have pointed out, the personalities involved give McCain a 5-10 point edge.

I'll give you that.

I'll go out on the line and predict a 3-4 point bump by the weekend offset by enough of a bump at the end of next week to have McCain up a point or two. State polls will remain basically unchanged, but safe states will shift even safer. All in all we'll be in the same place in two and half weeks that we're in today. The deabtes are going to be the deciding factor.

Should I base my vote on who the poorest candidate is? Poorest average net worth across the ticket? That seems to be what the Dems are arguing but I can't say I'm convinced.

It's like McCain's people arguing that Obama is too popular, filling up stadiums an so forth.

Isn't being successful in life, or being popular good things?

Will Mary Jo Kopeckny also be making an appearance? Makes you wonder what kind of tribute she'd have for ol Teddy. :D

If you're right, then it's over & Obama wins going away (barring him suddenly being afflicted with some sort of ill-timed bizarre mental breakdown that turns him into Jim Carey). I'm not sure McCain could debate a mannequin & win decisively.

For McCain to have a chance in November, he has to make sure that he doesn't completely meltdown during the debates & then win on message in the media & in the ads.

I wouldn't willingly vote for either of them...but in my book, McCain is the lesser of two evils.

Actually, McCain seems to do better with unscripted stuff. When he delivers prepared speeches...OMG.

Obama does charismatic speeches but starts sputtering and stammering and saying really unintelligent sounding bites when things get off script.

We are in agreement, you shouldnt base your vote on one aspect only, say like, abortion rights...

Fuck me, we agree too. I just looked and it hasn't frozen over outside either, weird day.

...don't. I also throw in things like taxes, environmental wackism, income redistribution, etc., etc., etc.

Unfortunately for him "better" is relative. He has a knack for sounding briefly like he knows what he's talking about off the cuff but in reality ... sigh. That's a weakness that I felt strongly led to the whole how-many-house gaffe, I'd bet somebody has made him paranoid about getting something simple like that wrong & he froze because of it.


I have every anticipation of him being so rehearsed for these that it'll take a real unexpected moment for him to get too far out of sorts. If it happens, I think that would tell me a lot about the (lack of) quality of his handlers, even more than it would say about him.

I mentioned this up the thread many pages ago I think but I'll say it again: at this stage of the game, I'm impressed that either candidate can remember their own name much less be letter perfect during even a short burst.

Well that's good. I wish more Americans would look at ALL facets before voting instead of just hanging there hat on the easy targeted sound bites and spin, like Abortion rights, Gay marriage rights, Immigration reform, etc. etc.

Jon, we agree again to your point that at this point they must have so much shit in their heads and so many people pulling at them for 20 hours a day that it's a wonder that someone doesnt have a breakdown.

There's no question about that. McCain has actually done very well in his prior debates. He is absolutely horrible when he is trying to read a prepared speech from a teleprompter.

He's gotten better at prepared stuff since switching teams. That speech in front of the green background was one of the worst I've seen from a prominent politician.

Luke Russert doesn't do a bad job.

MSNBC coverage is just theatre. The interplay between Olbermann and Matthews is hilarious. Sooo awkward.

[quote=Dark Cloud;1815588 The interplay between Olbermann and Matthews is hilarious. [/QUOTE]

The state of Colorado is not big enough for both of their egos.

This speech is annoying and personally I find it tacky that they have a black speaker trying to sound like MLK and Co. did.

Michelle Obama's Monday night keynote is coming on now.

It's been a while since I've agreed with Carville, but this has been a truly craptacular waste of a first night. Maybe we can get another ten minute cover band remix before Michelle takes the stage.

MSNBC's coverage has been really strange too. Clearly they're working the kinks out. Well that and you can tell that none of them like Chris Matthews. It's hilarious. He does whatever he wants.

Wonder how well this will go for her. She seems really nervous and you can immediately tell that the teleprompter thing is awkward so far...should be interesting how it evolves.

I gotta say. Seeing Biden up there as the running mate, I take back the stuff I said. He looks like he's raring to kick some ass and that's really what Obama needed was like a super surrogate to put a foot in someone's ass where no one else could before.

So Cindy McCain is going to Georgia and meeting with the President? I can only imagine the outrage if Michelle Obama did the same thing.

Man...that's...just rich.

Is she gonna sell him drugs? I mean, really? What the hell are they gonna talk about it?

Ok, ok. I'm over it.

Juan Williams is crying on FOX News right now. Brit Hume has NO idea how to handle it, but he's asking Juan Williams to speak for all of black America.

It was good for what it was... but they had a chance to draw the line a lot clearer then they did between Obama and McCain, and in that at least, I don't think you can consider day 1 a success by any means.

The critics will say that they weren't mean enough, or at least that's what im gathering but Im glad they didnt go with the divisive tactics today on the day where Ted Kennedy gave it his all to get up there. Eh, I thought the speech by MO was good, I thought Pelosi struggled and missed, and I thought the Kennedy stuff was heart warming...

I caught the end of Michelle Obama's speech and thought it was pretty good. I heard she had some rough sailing at the beginning but became more comfortable as she went on, which I think is to expected given the fact that she's speaking in front of a very large crowd.

Well done by MO.

Oh yeah, forgot about Pelosi. She looked really awkward.

She's just pissed no one is buying her book.

Does anyone else think the whole presidential election process is a huge slap in the face to the voters? Regardless of your choice of Coke or Pepsi? Thank heavens the president is only a figurehead...

4 more years of Dick Cheney? Status Quo FTW! :)

Agreed. Her speaking skills are terrible.

Did anyone else stay awake to watch Larry King Live after the speeches? He had 4 Republicans on the show. I wasn't really crazy about most of them, but Ben Stein made a lot of good points during the show and was much more level-headed with his comments than the others on the panel.

He noted that while the Pelosi delivery style was terrible, that she had some great attacking points on McCain's economic policies. He mentioned that he was shocked that the Democrats are spending more time attacking the Bush/McCain angle when they have a much better case against McCain if they just keep attacking the economic policies.

Another good point made was that there was no further clarification on how 'change' would be initiated, only that there would be change. Pelosi had a great opportunity to clarify how Congress would assist Obama as president, but she chose a more attacking tone to her speech against McCain. He believes it was an opportunity missed.

He also talked about the arrangement of the speakers and how it really detracted from the overall flow of the first night. He noted that the Ted Kennedy appearance, while it was a great emotional moment, provided a premature high point to the evening. As a result, Michele Obama's speech felt anti-climatic because the previous emotional high couldn't be matched.

Meh. Biden isn't trying to be the dark overlord, just super Secretary of State.

What do you want? IRV? Proportional Representation? A prime minister?

As long as Pelosi didn't say we should all bow to Master Satan she's fine. Nobody was watching her and nobody will be talking about her today.

I thought the bigger problem with the Kennedy speech was that it was pre-network. It would have been much stronger to start with Kennedy instead of Leach. Of course I thought the theatrics and messaging were off all night long.

Oh yeah, Stein's still an asshole.

I doubt that Obama did himself any favors here in KC when he sat in a living room in KC and stated that he was in St. Louis. Nevermind the fact that there were no less than 3 prompting cards around the room with the words 'Kansas City' on them. That's the same as sitting in a house in Boston and stating you're in New York City.