So I really don't think that his support among R's matters that much.

People in that group are being sampled from the places where his supporters already are. It's sort of like the this:

At first a pool is full of water. Over time, water evaporates and the water becomes more nasty.

trump's group is still in the pool, they are still supportive of him, and they are a very homogeneous and reliable sample.

What those samples and polls are missing is that a great amount of water has evaporated and the volume of that population is substantially smaller than it used to be.

So basically, trump's supporters are now just mired in a cesspool of political dysfunction. Literally.

Looks like I misunderstood what they would be releasing today-it was cases they are going to hear/not hear-one that they will hear has to do with the Mueller Report. Likely won't be decided until next year though.

Monday should be the next time decisions are announced.

Four months. Plenty of time for momentum to swing - several times.

This is not an out-on-a-limb prediction at all: The polls will tighten. It always happens, and even as weird as this situation is, it will happen this time as well. I can already see what is going to happen. The polls will start to tighten, and all the news media will jump on the "what is Biden doing wrong?" "Why is Biden failing?" etc.With that coming from everywhere, the numbers will start getting even closer. It is so predictable.

I love that there is a school of conservative conspiracists out there conspiring that this Ghislaine Maxwell arrest is somehow the result of Barr's unquenchable thirst for justice & getting rid of the NYSD prosecutor was a part of that, while entirely ignoring that Barr did not get to pick the replacement prosecutor as he had hoped & Barr's father literally got Epstein his teaching gig. Whatever the particulars are, I do hope Maxwell's arrest ends up with a little more clarity & closure rather than just expanding into a bigger Scooby Doo mystery (probably wishful thinking).

I saw something from an ex-SDNY prosecutor that the fact this was assigned to the Public Corruption unit is significant because these types of cases would usually be assigned to Sex Crimes unit unless something involves a public official.

Just read the Politico article about Tucker Carlson as GOP frontrunner in 2024 and am about ready to blow my brains out.

I mean...

I can see the "Sucker for Tucker" T-Shirts being printed right now...

Isn't this symbol on the dollar bill?

I know what the campaign stands for but maybe that was their inspiration?

There were some Mueller interviews released the other day and someone talked about how the campaign folks loved the Turner Diaries.

I see Rubio making subtle moves to distance himself and gain position for 2024. Personally, my hope for either party is that it's a candidate that has to actually live with the world they leave behind for a while after leaving office. I'm ready for some younger candidates in the Whitehouse.

The Presidential Eagle seal I think is in your dollar bill. With the eagle holding an olive branch and arrows.

This one is eerily posed like like the Nazi Eagle from WW2.

Back of the dollar bill, for reference (needing an image search to see what the back of a dollar bill looks like instead of everyone just already having one on them to check is a very 21st century problem I guess)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...2C_reverse.jpg

I'm gonna go with "no, not really the same"

dola,

And again, for comparison, the Nazi Eagle Crest

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...%931945%29.svg

The fundraising numbers must be getting to the Trump campaign. I've received at least 10 emails over the past 24 hours letting me know they're extending my donation deadline by an hour for the last time.

I was reading through Twitter comments on various Redskins/Indians things and came across the quintessential Trump supporter comment. I mean, this pretty much sums up the whole movement:

If the Indians dont like it let them go back to where they came from!!! TRUMP 2020!!!

— TRUMPMAN (@TRUMPMA46923250) July 3, 2020

I read through some of his posts and it's not a parody account.

I'm still not convinced he's not just funneling campaign money somewhere besides the campaign.

According to FEC filings Trump's campaign has already burned through 700 million. So, yeah, where did that money go?

Just a guess

So is the idea that campaign contributions are going to produce hats, shirts, etc. and then those proceeds go to private entities? (I don't know if that's the case, but I sure wouldn't doubt it.)

WH seemingly giving up and running with new "we have to live with it" COVID messaging.

American exceptionalism means we can't solve any problems.

We know payments are going to Donald and Eric along with their girlfriend/wife and Parscale took in $100 million for the 2016 campaign so you can only imagine what he's taking now. We also know Trump is charging the campaign for use of his properties and he's paying attorney's large amounts of money to fight his legal battles.

Campaign money is flying around everywhere and they've made it impossible to track because they created an "independent production company" called American Made Media Consultants that they funnel money through.

Trump still has a huge cash on hand lead, but it's difficult to even guess what that means considering how they seem to spend their money. What will be interesting is how willing the campaign is to help with Congressional races if Trump is still way down in the polls as we get closer to November. That money was used to keep people in line during the mid-terms.

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/...847095809?s=21

I like using Trump's words against him (They could do a fantastic job if they used his tweets)

Is there any doubt Trumps fireworks are going to cause a wildfire that will be blamed on the indigenous people lighting them to try and make him look bad?

If he loses he’ll just keep fundraising for 2024 cause it’s free money anyways.

Kimberly Guilfoyle tests positive for coronavirus | TheHill

Still all a hoax.

Trump steps back, done with being 'daily voice' of coronavirus response


That's a shame

Scary and believable possibility.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-c...pinion-1513975

I'm trying to figure out why all of my conservative friends who swore off watching the NFL in 2019 are so pissed off about the NFL playing the black national anthem before Week 1 games.

Do people normally get pissed off about things happening at sporting events they don't watch?

Or is this just another case of everything is a con?

ETA: In all fairness, most of these folks I know seem to be in the same demographic that has been unsuccessfully swearing off the evils of television since the mid-1980s because of the corrupt/sinful/gay Hollywood agenda. I realize that I lean pretty left compared to most of my religious Midwestern compatriots, but they seem to watch a ton more television than I do, and I haven't even tried to swear it off.

Many people (including me) don't like woke politics barging in on their entertainement.

Unintentionally spot on.

SI

explains yourself, sir!

Quote:

Many people (including me) don't like woke politics barging in on their entertainment.

The "woke" part is the silent part when most people say "I don't like politics in my sports" or "stick to basketball/football/whatever".

Everything in life has some inherent politics to it like, say, a sporting event with honor the troops or military flyovers. It's not that someone minds politics at an event, just ones they disagree with, "woke" ones.

SI

So it looks like i was saying the truth without hiding anything.

This. They never stopped watching.

God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch is still okay though, right?

I'll admit, the primary teams in my area are the Browns and the Lions, so saying I'll not be watching professional football doesn't mean anything :p .

The NFL has been swimming in militaristic politics for decades.

I have so many Lions/Brows fans on my FB that I want to share this with. :D :lol:

Most people don't say the quiet part loud

SI

Probably same reason why so many people saying they were going to emigrate to Canada and elsewhere never did after the Trump victory.

Emotions getting ahead of their brains.

They bought up all his failsons books too.

I still think he would make way more out of office than in.

If he was smart, he would turn his cult following into a religion. No taxes and a 10% tithe.

FYI: It's also very hard to emigrate to another country and become a citizen

SI

Yes. People on the left and the right claim that they will "Move to [X] if [Y] happens."

It is nice to see that, whatever our differences, we are united in our unquestioned belief that, as Americans, we can move wherever we want and any country would jump for joy at taking us in.

Sure, most countries have X years requirement to be citizen but being a permanent resident (or equivalent) is easier.

Canada is merit based immigration. It actually is one of the easier countries to emigrate to. Admittedly it may have changed but I looked into it back in the 00's, answered the questions, and scored enough points.

FWIW, most countries would not accept illegals and making them legal en masse. They rather have the skills or $.

Has @BubbaWallace apologized to all of those great NASCAR drivers & officials who came to his aid, stood by his side, & were willing to sacrifice everything for him, only to find out that the whole thing was just another HOAX? That & Flag decision has caused lowest ratings EVER!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 6, 2020

At this point, I think it's even money that he complains that blacks can say the n word while whites can't.

More like "Don't like politics we don't agree with", neh?

At this point he has to be trying to lose? I mean, he is pandering to his shrinking base and doubling down. Not even trying to appeal to a bigger group.

Or you're secure in the knowledge that the only way you're going to win is fixing the ballot boxes so do whatever you want because it doesn't matter anyway

SI

Let's be fair. It is politics that we don't agree with. But it is also "politics that I am not used to seeing here."

I watch a lot of sports. And American sports have always had a cozy relationship with conservative politics--so much so that you don't even really notice it. So it is a bit jarring to start seeing politics from the left get into sports.

I used to attend a decent amount of live theater. And theater has had a cozy relationship with left-wing politics, so much so that you don't even really notice it. And I am pretty sure that if a theater got a huge sponsorship from the NRA, you would see a lot of theatergoers threaten boycotts, etc. and generally be against "politics getting into theater"--even as they had sat through various programs for "HIV Awareness" and the like over the years without even realizing that they were political (because when you agree with something, it does not feel political).

So even though I agree with the direction the NFL is moving, I have sympathy for people for whom it feel very jarring and wrong and "political" in a way that sports has not seemed in the past.

it's all he knows. I think that's one of the things that made COVID-19 the thing that is dragging Trump down when so many other things could have.

All the other things, he could make about other people.

"Those women are lying"
"The Democrats are persecuting me"
"The Fake News Media is twisting things"

He could create a bubble that people who wanted to believe (that women were lying, that the democrats were just playing politics as usual, that the "Fake news media" just was making up shit to get ratings.) It was comforting to folks to believe the alternative reality Trump made, so they decided to do it

COVID? As the old presidential sign said, "The buck stops here" (and here is the president's desk). As much as he wants to make it about other people, COVID-19 doesn't give a fuck about President Trump. It just wants to spread. So this becomes the moment that people can no longer believe the fantasy.

(It doesn't help that he doesn't have sports or other things to try to distract people with)

Outside his 40% base, all he had was the economy being in good shape and he always was trying to repeat his inside straight in the Electoral College. If the economy is down and out for the rest of 2020, he has no backup plan aside from trying to kick off a race war that would draw the suburbs back.

NASDAQ HITS ALL TIME HIGH!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 6, 2020

Would love to see demographics on what percentage of his core base has significant savings, investments, etc that would be benefitting off the stock market in a truly meaningful way.

Honestly, probably a decent amount.

People describe Trump's base as "working class," but that does not really mean "poor."

For all of the image of Trump's voters as out-of-work coal miners, it is really more car salesmen and the like--people who do likely have a personal stake in the market.

He is angry that the Trump 2020 car got wrecked on pit row in yesterday’s race and finished 39th out of 40. And the Fox did not give the car barely a mention.

#SCOTUS's last *two* opinions for the day, handed down simultaneously, are in the "faithless elector" cases:

Short version: "A State may enforce an elector’s pledge to support his party’s nominee—and the state voters’ choice—for President."

Well, the race was on NBC, so... ;)

That does make a lot of sense as to why he was weighing in on something that happened 2 weeks ago.

9-0 decision as well.

I wouldn't call them his base, but wealthier Americans tend to be Republican.

This exit poll data shows Trump winning with voters who make over $50K / year and in all buckets from 50-100, 100-200, 200-250 and 250+. For many of these people stock market returns might be an important issue.

• Election 2016 exit polls: votes by income | Statista

Oops, that’s right! No wonder they didn’t mention the car because NBC is the media wing of the DNC.

I will admit, I had a smile when the nose of that car got crumpled up. Karma paid me back later when Newman hit the wall and screwed me in my pool.

The only thing I can figure is that he's trying to rile up his fan base to revolt against NASCAR and force them to pull back on what they've done. I think he's sensing some shrugged shoulders and apathy from the NASCAR crowd as this "controversy" has faded away. I wonder if this is telling sign that he's concerned about keeping his biggest supporters engaged (through outrage), nevermind trying to pull new supporters.

I still think the best chance the GOP in general has to get some momentum back (outside of Biden screwing up) is the monuments/American heroes thing. McConnell has gone all-in on that, running ads here in KY that don't even talk about McGrath or the Senate race, just the movement to wipe out history of Jefferson, Washington, etc. If anything could possibly play in the suburbs, that's the issue. But I don't know how or why that would offset the rest of the dumpster fire.

The problem is the term "working class" is vague and broad to the point of being unhelpful.

Is a guy who started his own landscaping business from scratch, and now makes $250,000 a year and has multiple employees and owns a lot of equipment and spends most of his time managing and marketing, but will still get out there and shovel dirt a "working class" guy?

Is the paralegal at a corporate law firm who makes $35,000 a year "working class"?

How high to you have to rise up at Burger King to no longer be working class? Assistant manager? Manager? Regional manager?

It's this kind of economic/cultural thing that we all sort of understand what it is. But when you think about it, it is also pretty hard to pin down just what it is--even as we all agree that the "working class" vote is important.

Admittedly this is dated as its from 2016, but the gist is

The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support | FiveThirtyEight

My guess is many (not sure about majority) have benefited from the stock market rise.

Oh, and here is Tyler Reddick's (odds on favorite for Rookie of the Year) response:

https://twitter.com/tylerreddick/sta...40451652272128

::: sighs at the Supreme Court::: I know that the decisions are important to some people, but people on both sides want the Trump Tax Returns verdicts already, stop making us wait

They'll likely issue that on the last day of the term and then skedaddle, as they sometimes tend to with hot button issues.

That's stellar, I am still not a huge racing fan, but I am watching NASCAR now just to support it and I am finding myself enjoying it more than I thought.

Canada already takes in more immigrants than the US per year, and has about 8% of the population. So it is likely far easier to immigrate to Canada.
I think they are planning another increase from about 330,000 immigrants per year to 400,000 per year. The largest portion is the merit based immigration, but there also is a small family reunification program and a refugee program which have different rules.

Good couple of days for environmentalists:

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/enviro...rcing-shutdown

Dunno, I care about SCOTUS far more than the average person and I couldn't care less what the say about Trump's tax returns. I also don't know a single person off these forums, including the politically-minded ones, who does. I just don't see the relevance at this point.

That page doesn't exist (Tweet deleted?)

My sarcasm meter is malfunctioning this morning, so I'm not sure if you meant this or were being sarcastic :)

Huh, I guess so (maybe Childress talked to him), though he retweeted the following:

https://twitter.com/bobpockrass/stat...32782421925891

I think Canada does it better than the US and have the luxury of geography. Merit based is the way to go with some allocations to family/refugee. I suspect if Canada had a porous border with an illegal immigration challenge, there would be a backlash also.

Douglas Todd: Canada vs U.S. on immigration: Five differences, five similarities | Vancouver Sun

Gotta generate that new outrage when they discover that gasp, people with money hire an army of tax people to minimize their tax bills. Amazing!

Yet there will be a subset of people who think this is somehow new.

I often wonder how many of the ultra-rich actually pay more to tax accountants than they'd actually owe in taxes.

I do because I want to find out if he’s a bigger fucking fraud than I already know he is.

Not being sarcastic at all. I can't imagine anything being found in there that convinces someone to vote or not vote from Trump, or even that should arguably do so, compared to what we already know.

The tax returns could have done two things

(1) Convince some Trump voters to move from Trump.
(2) Give GOP politicians cover to break from Trump based on "new information."

It is pretty clear now that both Trump's voters and GOP politicians are with him for the long haul.

It reminds me of the Dennis Leary bit about making the warnings on the cigarette packages bigger. What smoker is going to pick up a pack with a bigger warning and say "Wait, these things are bad for you?" What voter is going to see the tax returns and say, "Wait, you mean Trump is shady and in lots of debt?" We all know already.

At this point, people have decided that Trump is corrupt or that he is not corrupt or that they don't care whether he is corrupt.

Finding out that he took out a bunch of loans from Russian mobsters (or whatever will be in there) isn't going to change anyone's mind or vote.

Must have been, probably at NASCAR's request. I looked at right before I posted on it.

I don't think the tax findings are about the vote at all, but purely from a standpoint of finding any illegal activity. People made up their minds about his tax stuff long ago (myself included). At this stage, though, it's more for authorities than any voters.

Not just that, but solidifying that Congress has the right to investigate and subpoena these things. That's a bigger principle at play here.

I never believed Trump would include evidence of his crimes on his tax returns.

I think he's probably just embarrassed not to be as rich as he claims.

Isn't he done being audited yet? Wasn't that his reason for not releasing his tax returns?

In regards to crimes, wouldn't the IRS have caught any illegal activity?

Knowing his fragile ego I agree this is likely his biggest reason for pushback.

My parents are a perfect example. Older, retired, and scared to death their 401K will plummet with a Dem in power and thrilled (up until Covid) with the performance of the stock market under Trump. That's all I hear is how great he is for the stock market. If the market tanks and stays down, I could be forced to bail my parents out in 5 years because that's their retirement.

I'm sure they are not alone.

Not that the President has much to do with it but I wonder where the perception comes from that a Dem will crash the market. Both Clinton and Obama presided over a recovering economy. The market tanked under Bush and now Trump.

Fox News

This and what others said. By now everyone's mind pretty much made up on who they are going to vote for in 2020. He's held his tax returns, Mueller Grand Jury reports, etc hostage for four years now. He needs to be shown no is above the law. And then if Biden is elected, a federal law created so no one can do this again.

His sister resigned her judge position so that she wouldn't have to explain possible tax fraud and Trump has been shown to overvalue his. assets for loans and undervalue them for tax assessments. He's almost certainly guilty of tax fraud, though I would be shocked if he's ever charged.

His tax documents might also show how much of his money is connected to organized crime figures.

Yeah, there has long been speculation that he isn't close to being a billionaire. He's been trying to blunt that for a while.

This. A IRS audit wouldn't pull up fraud, because they would not look at loan applications. It would be up to a local or federal prosecutor to make that connection. Which is why they want his tax returns.

No shocker, but his hard right turn down the alley of deep south/culture war/full on kkk, probably isn't going to get him where he needs to be come November. I still can't believe that Republicans of all people are the ones that are carrying the litter for this fucking asshole. I think it's plainly obvious that circumstantial evidence available to the public shows that he's not only committed blatant tax fraud, but also used NY real estate to launder money. In fact, I'd bet that the Kushners are also heavily involved in that. He's the king of accusing people of the very things that he does regularly. He's a horrible human being, a useless sack of shit, and deserves to spend the rest of his life in misery.

It's still nuts that Trump is doubling down on this. Not even trying to expand his base in the slightest. Even in the face of terrible polling for him.

But other than that, what do you really think of him?

Imagine the President of the United States personally attacking and trying to bully a private citizen of his country. That alone should be enough to be utterly despicable, never mind the fucking loaded circumstances he is utterly ignoring to make a play for personal gain.
Future historians will argue if those were genuine or if there was a mixup a couple hundred years ago when transferring the Internet data to whatever else came next.

(Never mind that even the lowest Ratings (EVER!!!) bit is ridiculous, considering all sports i looked at that have restarted are struggling with that, german cup final f.e. had 30% less than any in recent years despite pretty shitty weather even and no public viewing)