With these Federalist Society judges, you aren't paying for the social issues. It's fine if they get them, but they're buying them for the business stuff which Roberts has been 100% in line with.

Kagan's dissent on the CFPB case hits them on that a bit and hilariously references Schoolhouse Rock in doing so:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion.../19-7_n6io.pdf


SI

Since Iran took a warrant out on President Trump, is there anyway we could give him to them?

So right now, Trump has just under 88% of the Republican closed primary vote against Uncommitted in Kentucky. Anyone have any historical perspective on an unopposed president's primary vote? 12% seems like a big number in a state like KY - particularly since local office primaries were really the only reason to come out to vote (Trump, McConnell and Barr were going to cruise).

Seems pretty common. Obama only got about 60% in West Virginia and Kentucky in 2012. In more comparable to incumbent blue states for him, Obama got 87% in Massachusetts and 84% in Rhode Island.

2012 Democratic Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

Hmm. Most of those states, Obama was running against someone though. Uncommitted got only 6% of the total vote in all primaries. It is interesting that in a few states, Romney won the Republican side by a larger margin than Obama won the Democrat side. I don't remember those primaries - but 2012 feels like 1912 in Covid-19/Trump Years.

Here, Trump is the only person on the ballot, so it feels like 13.5% (as of now) voting NOT TRUMP within his own party has some significance. That's over 50K Republicans. It's not going to swing KY in November, but even though Trump is up easily here, he's down a good bit compared to 2016 (last I saw, he's up 18 right now and won KY by 30 in 2016).

It may have some significance.

But it may also just be blowing off some steam. A "protest vote" by some Republicans that will be there for McConnell & Trump in November.

You can tell things are getting bad for Trump when McConnell and Fox News personalities start to cave on pushing people to wear masks. I mean, where were you a-holes 3 months ago? Oh that's right, the pandemic was going to magically disappear by Easter, so who needs a mask that makes you look you a weak sissy?

McConnell and Fox News know that the pandemic is bad and that controliing it will help the GOP get re-elected.

Trump might know that, too. But he cares more about not wearing a mask than getting re-elected.

Holy hell, Rick...

Former U.S Navy Seal Dr. Dan Barkhuff wants to know if @realDonaldTrump is a coward who can't stand up to Putin or if he's complicit.

Well, Donald, which is it? pic.twitter.com/rZUsgSpDv2

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) June 30, 2020

My fingertips are singed just typing this out... wow

Holy fuck!

Remind me to never piss off the Lincoln Project guys.

Wow.

They're doing good work now. But it would have been nice if they had done something sooner like when we were caging kids or sided with white supremacists in Charlottesville or when his kid was Tweeting to the world about how he colluded with Russia or... Still, better late than never.

SI

That was stiff! Love it

Yowsa. The coward ain't gonna like that. Now tie in Moscow Mitch.

Well, it wasn't formed until late last year (12.17.19), so....

I don't understand why the Democrats can't make ads like that on a regular basis (besides being worthless as always).

From what I've read, the Democrats have let the Lincoln Project handle the negative aspects while generating content for Biden that is positive.

Doesn't really matter, Republicans are going to steal the election anyway.


Senate GOP blocks bill to require campaigns report foreign election assistance

Like the administration going after the ACA and gutting the pre-existing condition provision should have been a real easy ad to make last week. There is overwhelming support for that, especially in a pandemic. Not a bad idea to let people know.

James Carville is a dumb dope most of the time but he was right that the Lincoln Project just throws punches while the Democrats sit around having meetings and doing internal polls about what may or may not work.

I know it's almost impossible, but could we potentially see a sitting president not run for re-election for only the second time in modern history?

Highly doubt it. His ego won't allow it. If he loses, he'll blame it on cheating somehow.

I saw a report on it but is there any truth to it? Sounded like just the musings of some Republican analyst or whatever. Seems way too late in the game to pull out now.

I don't know if his ego will allow a blowout though and it will be hard to claim cheating if that happens.

I think if he could, he would happily walk away. He doesn't seem to like most aspects of the job. But once he is no longer president, he is wide open to a lot of legal action so that likely keeps him in.

I think he wants out. Lets face it, he likes to do the media stuff. Likes watching TV, tweeting, giving speeches and interviews to people who will coax his ego. He hates having to deal with a virus, or unemployment, or protests going on throughout the country.

So ultimately if he loses, I think he'd be happy to set up his own TV network or media company and let that roll. Gets to do all the stuff he likes and avoid the responsibility of being President.

There are a lot of theories out there right now. One is that the report about the polls are meant to spur GOP support. Another is that the guy in Washington plans to drop out of the race at the last moment, but is deciding to take everything with him.

Another has him resigning the day of the election, if it appears he's going to lose, and flee the country.

It's all way, way too early for any of that. The odd thing is that the guy in Washington seems resigned to losing; twice, on camera, he's said that Biden will be the next president. Whether he is trying to drum up sympathy or what, who knows.

I'd imagine the guy is at a fever pitch right now, but he wouldn't suddenly just leave. The GOP may want him to at this point (I guess even McConnell is beginning to turn on him somewhat?), but they made their bed together.

Oh gawd, not the Trump Network, though on the bright side it would fail within a year

I know things can change a lot but just looking at these polls coming out every day, it seems like it would take a massive blunder from Biden or health emergency to make this competitive. I mean Biden is up double digits in battleground states that Trump needs to win. Just don't see how he can make up that kind of ground with such high disapprovals.

Question, if a President dies between the nomination and election, what happens? Does the VP just get the slot? I know it's happened before but the dead person never won I don't think.

Both are old and campaigning. There's a chance one or both get the virus.

Thought I saw stuff about them just buying OANN and re-branding it. I actually think it would do well. Boomers are one of the few people watching cable TV these days and he does well with a portion of that demographic.

I just read about this and timing matters: ElectoralVote

OK don't get my hopes up for Ivanka/Biden debates.


I can't even believe we're talking about this. Trump has truly made the impossible possible.

I suppose if there's anyone who could fuck this up, it's Joe Biden. His operatives need to make sure he takes his naps and keeps his speeches to a minimum.

At pretty much any other point I would've celebrated the idea of Trump leaving office under any circumstances, but now I would hate to be denied the prospect of watching him suffer through a historic loss.

I bet we see a historic amount of people vote this election. Both sides are pretty fired up.

That's kindof my point. It wasn't until now that it was time to go take a bat to him rather than after all the other awful stuff he has done.

SI

Maximum naps, minimum speeches: Vote Biden 2020!

SI

Yet another Qanon believer wins a GOP House primary. This time in CO.

And knocking out a Trump-back incumbent while doing so.

Every election cycle over the last decade, the Republicans seem to find another batshit group to be their new extremists. They're going to end up with a dozen Qanoners that make the old Freedom Caucus look reasonable.

What a difference a few months make, eh?

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politi...rump-joe-biden

Wasn't that the exact same percentage chance he had to win over Hillary on election night 2016?

And the GOP yawns over the bounty's put on US troops by Russia. Unbelievable how the frog has been boiled, cremated, and spread of ashes...

The presidency will never be the same in my lifetime. It has been eviscerated of all that was meant to make it esteemed.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds
RCP said betting odds were 13%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
538 was 29%

Everyone else was like 1%, which is why most aren't doing projections this year.

If you convince yourself it didn't happen, there's nothing to be outraged over.

Even guilty people can pass a lie detector test if they convince themselves of an alternate "truth."

If the D's were even in the slightest way like the R's in this instance, they would already have gotten the names of soldiers who even remotely 'could' have been the victims in this, and trotted out the parents, children, and spouses and already been running ads about their blood being on the presidents hands.

Now if Hillary was still Secretary of State, you bet your ass there would be a dozen investigations.

No, there have been groups doing it all along. NowThis has been absolutely consistent and effective in posting videos showing his hypocrisy and times he's been out of line or unlawful. There are several other groups too. It's highlighted moreso with The Lincoln Project because it's geared towards the election, and also that there's more high-profile people delivering the message (and, thus, getting more support of the Democratic Party).

But make no mistake...these kind of videos have been circulating for the last four years.

I've seen at least two parents make statements about this, but none tied to a group.Yet.

I'm guessing the Dems will continue to sit back and let the other groups run the negative ads. I'm sure there is some sort of loose alliance/strategy to that effect.

Traditionally, this is how the Republicans have run things. Their side groups run the utterly horrific ads so the candidates can 'keep their hands clean' to an extent. Now, this doesn't apply with Trump of course.

Glad Dems are finally embracing this playbook

There have been plenty of groups running ads for Democrats as well. Moveon.org comes to mind and well as the Dem candidate's superpac. Living in an Ohio TV market I get subject to plenty of them every 4 years.

They just weren't very effective ads.

Well, they have no choice - it's not them, it's a bunch of anti-Trump Republicans. They are just content to sit back and let them do the dirty work.

Yes, but in the past they would have still found a way to botch the opportunity to run a positive, unifying campaign and let the outside players shovel the dirt

If the somehow actually coordinated, they'd also be dumb enough to get caught doing it.

SI

Trump Blames Losing Campaign on Listening to ‘Woke Jared’

This article kind of makes fun of Trump's doubling down strategy.

But it kind of sort of makes sense, right? What does Trump have to gain by moderating on racial issues at this point? Isn't the only play he has left to keep his base ultra motivated?

Or, to use an analogy near and dear to FOFC, once you've doubled your bet 9 times in a row at the blackjack table and lost, isn't the only play left to double it one more time?

Looks like the GOP is going to keep several hundred thousand potential voters off the rolls in WI and FL.

dola

Trump, today:

If this were a business, Trump would have declared bankruptcy by now. We’re in uncharted territory right now. We’ve never seen him have to ride something all the way to the bottom.

Hopefully he can take the biggest L in the electoral college ever. Go in the history books as the best loss ever.

That's unlikely. All 50 states going for Biden is nearly unthinkable. It's be nice to have that sort of national unity but I don't see it happening.

You know the old joke, when it's your time to go, it's your time to go - well what if it's the pilot's time to go? We're all flying on Trump Airlines and he's the captain without a single hour in the cockpit. He's gonna die on his terms and unfortunately take us all with him. At this point, it's just a matter of whether he rides it out another 4 years or nosedives in November.

You don't have to run a mean attack ad. Just say "hey, they are trying to get rid of your health care and strip the pre-existing conditions clause, just thought you should know".

Like how many people actually know this is happening right now in the courts? There is nothing wrong about being aggressive in letting people know what is happening to them.

Off the top of my head I'm not sure what the biggest defeat was but I know Nixon won like 49 states in 72.

It was Reagan over Mondale in '84. Only Minnesota and DC went to Mondale.

edit: that was most number of electoral votes. If you go by percentage of electoral votes, Washington got 100% each time, James Monroe won 231-1 and in '36 FDR won 523-8

Without looking it up, I think Reagan-Mondale was the biggest electoral college defeat, with Mondale only carrying his home state (Minnesota?).

Edit: Alright, I was close. :)

Potential biggest for an incumbent though

I still think that may be difficult. Carter won 6 states and DC in 1980. That's 49 Electoral votes.

Trump could piss on the American flag, and I think he wins still wins South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Oklahoma (and Wyoming, North Dakota, etc).

He could probably piss on the confederate flag and still get Alabama.

This is interesting, and something that I hadn't really considered. I thought the top issue in the 2020 presidential campaign might be race relations, healthcare, the economy or taxes.

Apparently, the number one issue in this election may turn out to be which candidate is more senile.

Trump vs. Biden: Senility becomes 2020 flashpoint

I need to learn to read before I post.

You can add Kentucky to the guaranteed win column.

Going back to something I posted a few days ago, I still think the GOP is going to get a bit of a bounce from possible defectors staying home over the "rewriting history" thing. And I'm not talking about the confederate statues, I'm talking Washington/Jefferson/Mt. Rushmore, etc. I just saw a new McConnell ad with an ominous vibe on this subject. I didn't watch the entire thing carefully, but I'm pretty he stuck with the non-controversial American hero-types. It's got the possibility to be a big issue.

C'mon this is Trump's America - we'll have 15 more scandals by this time next week

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Dilbert guy says that if Biden is elected Republicans will be hunted and killed within a year.

Big if true.

I was never a Dilbert fan and never heard of that guy, but sheesh. I suppose if you're a fan, this is one of those "wish I didn't meet my idol" moments.

Scott Adams been going off the deep end for a while, I think I stopped reading sometime after Trump was elected because it didn't feel right supporting some of the more insane and hateful stuff he was spouting...

Vanilla Ice throwing a July 4th concert in Texas to (potentially) thousands.

"The 90s were the best. We didn’t have coronavirus, or cell phones, or computers."

I'm not sure where to start with that statement.

Trump has a new shirt design.

OH COME ON pic.twitter.com/6divzAkVkK

— LuxuryAvenueHat (@Popehat) July 2, 2020

And we might have one tomorrow. Trump tax return cases may finally be ruled on by the Supreme Court

That cant be real

And I saw an article about the shirt and then there is the $88 baseball that is black and has Trump in red letters on it. 88 is defined as the numeric equivalent to "Heil Hitler" by the White Supremacists.

I didn't think so either, but it's on the official Trump store.

My uneducated prediction: 5-4 "narrowly scoped" case that only applies now but does not require him to turn over his tax returns at all. It's the Roberts special.

SI

That’s unreal.

I was talking to a friend about how, with other leaders or presidents that I disagreed with or disliked, I still probably approved of or could at least understand the justification for it like 75% of the time. With Trump, I can barely pick out anything he says or does that seems like a good idea (even in a concrete thinking sense).

It really does seem like he has been starring in a Sacha Baron Cohen-type performance since the 2016 GOP primary, waiting on people to call him on it and here we are 4+ years in with almost all of the elected Republicans just cool with whatever he does.

This is why I hate our system. These people are too worried about losing their sweetheart jobs do do anything of substance.

So, is there someone on the inside that is intentionally trolling Trump here? Or is the only hope of re-election to go all-out, pedal to the metal extreme-right fascism and hope it ends in a Republic of Gilead? I mean, I would not be surprised at all if Trump saw this and didn't put two and two together, but anybody else with even a basic level of intelligence surely would.

And it's looking like they're going to lose anyway. Senators McSally, Tillis, Gardner, Collins, Daines, Ernst all in danger of losing, plus the two Georgia seats. All that cozying up to Trump did them no good.

They would have been assured of being primaried out though if they went against him, and they were doing what their constituents wanted. That's not a fault of the system, it's a fault of the electorate itself.

If it’s what their constituents wanted why are they being voted out?

Fox News in full spin/backtrack mode, wondering how over the past couple of weeks masks became a political thing.

It's good for them that their audience is so old that they probably don't remember what they heard on Fox News even a few days ago, so they can just re-format their viewers' hard drives with the latest talking points.

The fact that Trump's numbers have not completely tanked and the GOP hasn't forced him to resign tells me that we might be a failed state. America is an incredibly tribal and scary place right now.

Ever since I can remember, the play in American politics has been to move to the edge to win the primary, then move back toward the center to win the general.

But as the base of the GOP has continued to shift rightward, it is getting harder and harder to be as conservative as you need to win a GOP Primary while remaining palatable enough to the general electorate to win a general.

But for gerrymandering, the electoral college, and the unrepresentative nature of the Senate, you'd see this reflected in who is in power.

(Of course, if you didn't have gerrymandering, the electoral college, and an unrepresentative Senate, the GOP would have never pulled so far to the right because they would have known it was impossible to keep power that way. So there is a bit of a chicken/egg things going on).

I think you know the answer to that. Public opinion is not a static thing; the situation when they were elected is not the same as the situation now. It's not as if these people were put in office by mostly Democrats. Trump's approval among Republicans, which is where most of their voters come from, has been around 85%.

They're not going to win the Democrat vote, and their supporters wanted them to stay with the president. So their only chance rises and falls with him.

Some chose another route and just quit Congress or left the party (i.e. Amash). But there's no path for Republican success by opposing Trump, that's been proved repeatedly. Before the pandemic, Trump's approval rating didn't go down for an extended period no matter what he did. That's what happens when the public - and repeated statements by regular posters on this forum shows that in general we're no different - rewards party loyalty & ideology above integrity and principled leadership.

honestly, I'm sure that the Democrats will try to gerrymander as hard to the left as Republicans have done to the right. I really wish they wouldn't. I wish it was possible to get a truly non-partisan group together to set voting regions in a logical way.

Unfortunately these days nothing is non-partisan :(

So it looks like someone is finally going on the attack against Lincoln Project - Club for Growth? Honestly, the first thought that comes to mind is Hair Club for Men. What a terrible name.

Personally, I'd be in favor of non-partisan redistricting in all 50 states, but given that won't happen, the only way to combat the GOP is to fight fire with fire. If they get locked out of enough seats for a decade perhaps they will moderate some. One side following norms while the other side violates them, like what we have now, is the worst possible scenario.

Here's my elegant-in-its-simplicity-but-probably-pretty-stupid solution:

You can draw districts however you want, but you are allowed a maximum of 4 lines in which to do it. So every district will be a quadrilateral or triangle or bump up against a state border.

It would be a lot prettier to look at on a map, that's for sure.

Sure. I just hate that Trump has brought us to the extreme of only governing for those who support him as opposed to all Americans. Obama passed ACA for all, not just democrats. I don't recall a POTUS who openly attacked those who didn't vote for him. Politicians are supposed to represent all their constituents. Drives me crazy that they don't at least make a token effort to even hide the fact they don't.

FWIW:

Fair Districts Pledge | National Democratic Redistricting Committee

(obviously not all Democrats have signed onto this, but at least there’s an effort)