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Edward64 12-27-2014 07:29 AM

Good old North Korean insults. Hasn't gone on as long as Cuba but NK has been an albatross for a while now, wish Obama would do something about them.

I do find it hard to believe that NK has the sophistication and ability to hack into Sony (but was it really a hack or they paid someone off?).

2 of the 3 axis of evil are still around. I think this one really deserves to go and find it incredible that this guy has not been offed yet by someone in his military, inner circle etc.

North Korea Insults Obama, Blames U.S. For Internet Outages - NBC News
Quote:

North Korea on Saturday accused the U.S. of shutting down internet service to the country in retaliation for its alleged hacking attack on Sony, and referred to President Barack Obama as "a monkey" in blaming him for the release of "The Interview."

An unnamed spokesman for the Policy Department of the National Defense Commission denied that North Korea was involved in the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, as the FBI has claimed. North Korea also accused the U.S. of orchestrating the internet outages that occurred in the isolated country this week.

"In actuality, the U.S., a big country, started disturbing the internet operation of major media of the DPRK (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea) not knowing shame like children playing a tag," the statement distributed by state-run media said. Two U.S. officials have told NBC News that the United States had no role in the internet outages.

North Korea also blamed Obama for the release of "The Interview," a Seth Rogen comedy that depicts the fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Obama had criticized Sony after the company said it would not release the film after major theaters refused to show it amid threats from hackers; it was eventually released to smaller theaters and online.

"Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds like a monkey in a tropical forest," the statement said. It also accused the U.S. of "gangster-like arbitrary practices" and warned "the U.S. should bear in mind that its failed political affairs will face inescapable deadly blows."

Edward64 12-28-2014 01:43 PM

Jeb v Hillary (but article didn't mention Romney) should be fun. Political dynasties in the making.

Poll: Bush surges to 2016 GOP frontrunner - CNN.com
Quote:

Washington (CNN) -- Jeb Bush is the clear Republican presidential frontrunner, surging to the front of the potential GOP pack following his announcement that he's "actively exploring" a bid, a new CNN/ORC poll found.

He takes nearly one-quarter — 23% — of Republicans surveyed in the new nationwide poll, putting him 10 points ahead of his closest competitor, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who tallied 13%.

Physician Ben Carson comes in third, with 7% support, and Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are both tied for fourth with 6%.

That marks a drop in support for all but Christie and Bush from the last CNN/ORC survey of the field, conducted in November. That poll showed Bush in the lead, but only taking 14% of the vote, while Carson came in second with 11% and Christie tied Rep. Paul Ryan for fourth with 9% support.

Bush's 10-point lead is a milestone for the potential GOP field — it marks the first time any prospective candidate has reached a lead beyond a poll's margin of error in the past two years.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still far and away the favorite to take the Democratic nomination for president if she runs, with the support of two-thirds of Democrats polled. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a liberal favorite, comes in a distant second place with just 9%.

DaddyTorgo 12-28-2014 01:49 PM

Political dynasties aren't "fun" - they're the LAST thing that we as "ordinary people" should be looking forward to.

Solecismic 12-28-2014 01:56 PM

Around this time four years ago all the way until he announced he wasn't a candidate, Mike Huckabee often led Romney in Republican polls. I don't put a lot of stock in anything at this stage. T-minus 18 months is mostly about getting a campaign structure and funding in place.

My gut says America really doesn't want another Bush. I know I don't.

JonInMiddleGA 12-28-2014 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solecismic (Post 2987597)
My gut says America really doesn't want another Bush. I know I don't.


Eh, at least in the primary stage, I think we just want a candidate we can actually get behind. If the last name is Bush, Reagan, or Rumplestiltskin, fine by me.

For that matter the name could be Hank Clinton, Kwame Roosevelt or Monica Biden ... just be a candidate that doesn't inspire eye rolls, nausea or deep dark depression.

Edward64 12-28-2014 02:03 PM

Took the quiz and found that overall, I closest match with Christie at 50%, Obama, Hillary & Jeb at 38%, Rand Paul at 30% and lowest with Ted Cruz at 28%. Romney wasn't listed.

I had the strongest social affinity with Christie (by far) and strongest economic with Ben Carson. Have to start paying attention to Christie.

VoteMatch Quiz

JonInMiddleGA 12-28-2014 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2987600)
Took the quiz and found that overall, I closest match with Christie at 50%, Obama, Hillary & Jeb at 38%, Rand Paul at 30% and lowest with Ted Cruz at 28%. Romney wasn't listed.

I had the strongest social affinity with Christie (by far) and strongest economic with Ben Carson. Have to start paying attention to Christie.

VoteMatch Quiz


Just for kicks I did the same quiz (hadn't done one in a while, I figured why not)

Highest overall score?
68% total with ... Jeb (70% social, 65% economic)
Ted Cruz got a 58%, no other GOP candidate gets more than a 55%.

Now if I refigure and leave several questions (like abortion) as no opinion (based on eliminating issues that really aren't a factor in my voting) ...

Cruz gets a 58%, Jeb gets a 50% ... and no other candidate even does that well.

See why I don't care what the last name is?

Solecismic 12-28-2014 02:33 PM

For me, Bernie Sanders is up there, even though I match 0% with him on the economy. Ted Cruz is #1, though around 40%. I don't think Ted Cruz is all that interesting.

In other words, whatever winds up as president, I'm probably unhappy.

I would like better candidates in general. We're recycling names because the process itself eliminates anyone with any integrity.

I was sad Jon Huntsman flamed out so early last time. He was someone I think I could have voted for. In the end, I might well vote for Hillary just because if I'm going to be unhappy policy-wise no matter what, I think it would be cool to have a woman president.

Edward64 12-28-2014 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 2987606)
Now if I refigure and leave several questions (like abortion) as no opinion (based on eliminating issues that really aren't a factor in my voting) ...


I retook it and left questions that weren't that important to me as no opinion. Christie and Carson came up as my top 2 and Cruz was second from the bottom. I see a pattern here.

JonInMiddleGA 12-28-2014 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2987623)
I retook it and left questions that weren't that important to me as no opinion. Christie and Carson came up as my top 2 and Cruz was second from the bottom. I see a pattern here.


The surprise to me on this one was how poorly Carson fared with me, a quick look at the positions they attribute to him suggested that perhaps he may have fallen in the scoring (for me) due to a lack of positions on several issues.

NobodyHere 12-28-2014 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2987600)
Took the quiz and found that overall, I closest match with Christie at 50%, Obama, Hillary & Jeb at 38%, Rand Paul at 30% and lowest with Ted Cruz at 28%. Romney wasn't listed.

I had the strongest social affinity with Christie (by far) and strongest economic with Ben Carson. Have to start paying attention to Christie.

VoteMatch Quiz

My top matches:
48% Scott Keller (whoever that is)
40% for Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul

Edward64 12-28-2014 07:02 PM

Formal "end", not sure if he should used the word "responsibly", it will come back to haunt him if bad things happen.

Given with where things are and with what happened in Iraq, keeping US "support" troops in Afghanistan is the right thing to do.

Not a 100% pullout but still pretty good (at least I would consider this a pledge mostly fulfilled).

Obama marks end of combat in Afghanistan - CNN.com
Quote:

Honolulu (CNN) -- Thirteen years and more than 2,000 American casualties after it began, the war in Afghanistan will conclude responsibly, President Barack Obama said on Sunday.

In a written statement marking the formal end of U.S. combat there, Obama said the remaining 10,000 or so American troops in Afghanistan would still face danger but that the longest U.S. war ever was now history.

"Our personnel will continue to face risks, but this reflects the enduring commitment of the United States to the Afghan people and to a united, secure and sovereign Afghanistan that is never again used as a source of attacks against our nation," Obama said.

American troops went to fight in Afghanistan following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and the U.S. spent more than $1 trillion dollars there and lost upwards of 2,200 servicemen and women.

Obama vowed to wind the Afghan war down when he took office, eventually announcing this year he would reduce the number of troops stationed there to about 10,000 — a massive reduction from the nearly 150,000 who once served.

Izulde 12-28-2014 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2987600)
Took the quiz and found that overall, I closest match with Christie at 50%, Obama, Hillary & Jeb at 38%, Rand Paul at 30% and lowest with Ted Cruz at 28%. Romney wasn't listed.

I had the strongest social affinity with Christie (by far) and strongest economic with Ben Carson. Have to start paying attention to Christie.

VoteMatch Quiz


My top was 58% with Bernie

ISiddiqui 12-28-2014 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2987600)
Took the quiz and found that overall, I closest match with Christie at 50%, Obama, Hillary & Jeb at 38%, Rand Paul at 30% and lowest with Ted Cruz at 28%. Romney wasn't listed.

I had the strongest social affinity with Christie (by far) and strongest economic with Ben Carson. Have to start paying attention to Christie.

VoteMatch Quiz


Obama 78%
(Social 75%, Economic 80%)

Hillary 58%
(Social 65%, Economic 50%)

Biden 55%
(Social 60%, Economic 50%)


Good thing I was already voting Hillary ;). Though Obama wins out big in Social and Economic, surprisingly.

Galaxy 12-28-2014 08:01 PM

Putin's economic strategy involves:

Putin orders vodka price cap as Russia’s economic crisis escalates - The Globe and Mail

flere-imsaho 12-29-2014 07:28 AM

Wonder if Ted Cruz still thinks Putin is a great leader.

flere-imsaho 12-29-2014 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2987790)
Good thing I was already voting Hillary ;). Though Obama wins out big in Social and Economic, surprisingly.


Obama 63%
(Social 65%, Economic 60%)

Sanders 53%
(Social 60%, Economic 45%)

Biden 50%
(Social 55%, Economic 45%)

Clinton 48%
(Social 50%, Economic 45%)


Cruz brings up the rear with 5%/5%/5%

In a Biden/Clinton race I'd still probably vote Clinton.

flere-imsaho 12-29-2014 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2987427)
Good old North Korean insults. Hasn't gone on as long as Cuba but NK has been an albatross for a while now, wish Obama would do something about them.


The best thing the U.S. can do about NK is make it China's problem. NK is, after all, basically a client state of China (in that it's dependent on China for everything up to and including its continuing existence).

What I hope is happening is that the Obama Administration is using NK to troll the Chinese (diplomatically, of course). As in "I dunno, guys, now Kim is saying XXXX. We may have no choice but to do $thingchinadoesn'twant."

Remember, NK represents an existential threat to no one, not even South Korea, although SK would be heavily overrun in an initial invasion before NK was pushed back. And in such a worst-case scenario, China comes out far, far worse on the world stage than the U.S. for a) not keeping its client in line, b) from suffering the inevitable economic impact from the disruption in the area and c) having to rebuild/support NK once the hostilities died down.

Quote:

2 of the 3 axis of evil are still around. I think this one really deserves to go and find it incredible that this guy has not been offed yet by someone in his military, inner circle etc.

As I recall from the news over the years since he took over, he actually proactively got rid of his likely challengers. And the ruling regime has always taken care of its top brass. Anyone still left with the werewithal to take out Kim is probably 110% loyal at this point.

JPhillips 01-07-2015 05:58 PM


NobodyHere 01-07-2015 06:05 PM

I wonder how many of the newly insured can afford their deductibles.

flere-imsaho 01-08-2015 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 2990256)
I wonder how many of the newly insured can afford their deductibles.


Probably more than could afford the cost of medical services while uninsured. Just guessing.

Warhammer 01-08-2015 08:31 AM

I wonder how much of that is due to the improving economy. That graph starts after the economy was in the tank.

flere-imsaho 01-08-2015 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warhammer (Post 2990376)
I wonder how much of that is due to the improving economy. That graph starts after the economy was in the tank.


I'm sure the economy is part of it, but the significant drop just as the Exchange Plans (and Medicaid Expansion) roll out seems a bit causal, too.

Edit: Here's the unemployment rate, for comparison:



As you can see, unemployment was steadily improving through the same period, while uninsured rates continued to rise. They only started to drop as the above mentioned ACA provisions took affect.

flere-imsaho 01-08-2015 08:42 AM

In other news: Boehner maintains House Speaker post despite biggest revolt in a century | US news | The Guardian


There's a lot of talk about how the GOP's going to have a pitched battle with Obama over the next 2 years, but with a thin majority in the Senate and robust dissident groups in both chambers it seems likely that there'll be more fireworks in their own caucus than with the President.

Thomkal 01-08-2015 02:51 PM

Will Republicans bar Obama from State of the Union address? - MarketWatch

I'm sure the President is not going to be thrilled to walk into a Republican controlled House and give a speech that will fall on mostly deaf ears anyway...

ISiddiqui 01-08-2015 03:02 PM

It would literally be one of the the stupidest things the Republicans could possibly do. It would make the shutdown look like genius.

Though thankfully it's just moronic talking heads and not actual Congresspeople saying so.

albionmoonlight 01-08-2015 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2990492)
It would literally be one of the the stupidest things the Republicans could possibly do. It would make the shutdown look like genius.

Though thankfully it's just moronic talking heads and not actual Congresspeople saying so.


Yeah, it would be a 100% political win for the President and have no impact whatsoever on anything policywise.

The discussion is some nice free red meat for the base, but the GOP leadership is way too smart to actually do it.

albionmoonlight 01-08-2015 03:22 PM

dola:

Though if I were the President, I might not pass up the opportunity to tweak Boehner a bit with the Tea Party. Before he starts his speech, he can specifically thank Speaker Boehner for the invitation to come present the speech. "It means a lot to me, John, that you invited me here and provided me with this platform to discuss the state of our union with Congress and the American people."

Edward64 01-08-2015 09:16 PM

I like it as an investment if the costs are not prohibitive. Not sure if community is same as vocational but would support vocational as well. Let's see the nos.

Obama To Propose Free Community College Program
Quote:

The White House on Thursday announced a proposal that President Barack Obama said would make community college "free for everybody who is willing to work for it." But administration officials provided no details about the program's costs or where the money would come to pay for it.

Obama planned to formally announce the plan Friday at Pellissippi State Community College in Knoxville, Tennessee. He gave a preview in a videotaped message shot aboard Air Force One and posted on Facebook.

"It's not just for kids," Obama said. "We also have to make sure that everybody has the opportunity to constantly train themselves for better jobs, better wages, better benefits."

Obama provided few specifics, and White House and Education Department officials on a conference call with reporters Thursday evening said the funding details would come out later with the president's budget.

The White House did say that if all states participated, that nine million students could benefit — saving on average $3,800 in tuition per year for a full-time student. That means the program could cost in the billions of dollars. In a Republican-led Congress, the proposal likely faces a tough legislative fight to be passed.

"With no details or information on the cost, this seems more like a talking point than a plan," said Cory Fritz, press secretary for House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Under the proposal, participating students would be expected to maintain a modest grade point average and participating schools would have to meet certain academic requirements. States would opt in to the program and put up a fraction of the funding.

"Put simply, what I'd like to do is to see the first two years of community college free for everybody who is willing to work for it," the president said.

David Baime, vice president for government relations at the American Association of Community Colleges, called the plan an "extraordinary" investment. He said the essence of the proposal is to reduce the cost of attending community college and "that is a concept that we heartily endorse."

Last year, Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam signed into law a scholarship program using lottery funding that provides free community and technical college tuition for two years to the state's high school graduates.

The scholarship program faced opposition in Tennessee from some of the state's private colleges and legislators concerned that the program could potentially divert students and scholarship dollars from four-year schools. Haslam has said the program will increase the pool of students going to college.

The White House said its proposal was inspired by the Tennessee plan and another similar program in Chicago.

JPhillips 01-08-2015 09:30 PM

It's pretty clearly a preview for the State of the Union. Because it's Obama's idea, it won't get through Congress.

flere-imsaho 01-09-2015 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 2990497)
Though if I were the President, I might not pass up the opportunity to tweak Boehner a bit with the Tea Party. Before he starts his speech, he can specifically thank Speaker Boehner for the invitation to come present the speech. "It means a lot to me, John, that you invited me here and provided me with this platform to discuss the state of our union with Congress and the American people."


This is essentially the kind of thing for which I'm hoping over the next two years (plus a SCOTUS replacement or two). The GOP aren't going to let him do anything anyway, and indications are they're going to fight amongst themselves almost as much, so why not just spend two years trolling them and making them even angrier at each other? :D

stevew 01-09-2015 07:14 PM

Romney 2016 is apparently a thing.

Kodos 01-09-2015 08:29 PM

It was so fun the last time!

molson 01-09-2015 08:36 PM

Like Hillary, he'd be the 2nd oldest president ever at inauguration. Still pretty damn handsome though!

Edward64 01-10-2015 11:44 AM

Romney was someone I could have supported other than his backing away from his own/similar healthcare reform legacy. So I'll look forward to any updated positions as Obamacare is reality now.

The Romney vs Bush battle will be entertaining. I guess this puts everyone else as a distant third or worse.

Romney to GOP donors: ‘I want to be president.’ - The Washington Post
Quote:

Mitt Romney forcefully declared his interest in a third presidential run to a room full of powerful Republican donors Friday, disrupting the fluid 2016 GOP field as would-be rival Jeb Bush was moving swiftly to consolidate establishment support.

Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee, has been mulling another campaign for several months, but his comments Friday marked a clear step forward in his thinking and come amid mounting tensions between the Romney and Bush camps.

“I want to be president,” Romney told about 30 donors in New York. He said that his wife, Ann — who last fall said she was emphatically against a run — had changed her mind and was now “very encouraging,” although their five sons remain split, according to multiple attendees.

JPhillips 01-10-2015 07:23 PM

I'm obviously anti-Mitt, but I think the legacy of being the first Mormon president is very important to him.

stevew 01-10-2015 07:49 PM

Romney wants it to be one way. But it's the other way

JonInMiddleGA 01-10-2015 09:30 PM

Useless malleable git on the first go-round, usless malleable git now.

If he's the nominee, what's the fucking point?

Edward64 01-11-2015 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 2991230)
Useless malleable git on the first go-round, usless malleable git now.


I think everyone is a malleable git one way or another. Don't think that should exclude him. I don't think his record is bad as governor and his record as businessman is great. His view on the "little people" may be questionable.

Was Mitt Romney a Good Governor? - The Atlantic
Quote:

Was Romney actually a terrible governor of Massachusetts, or was this all politics? Naturally, the reality is not as simple as either side would like to claim.

Romney can't be accused of leaving the state in a shambles, local experts say, and his tenure was by no means a disaster. He left the state with one towering accomplishment -- universal health care, an achievement neither Romney nor Obama likes to mention now. But Romney fell short of his campaign pledge to change the state's political culture, stymied by a combination of entrenched interests and his own failure to cultivate relationships. And his naked positioning for national office in the latter part of his one term left a bad taste in many mouths.

DaddyTorgo 01-12-2015 12:52 PM

CENTCOM Twitter account hacked, suspended - CNN.com

This inspires a lot of confidence in our cyber-defense.

cartman 01-12-2015 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2991791)
CENTCOM Twitter account hacked, suspended - CNN.com

This inspires a lot of confidence in our cyber-defense.


Unless the Pentagon is hosting the Twitter and YouTube servers, which I doubt.

DaddyTorgo 01-12-2015 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 2991796)
Unless the Pentagon is hosting the Twitter and YouTube servers, which I doubt.


Of course not - but it does sort of make our whole cyber-security setup (private and public) look like amateur hour IMO.

Like...Twitter and YouTube don't spend enough on cyber-security to defeat a bunch of ____________ (insert whatever term you want to use here).

Edward64 01-12-2015 08:37 PM

Not good. When I first read about AG representing the US, I was thinking that can't be right, too low level. Kerry or Biden would have been the minimum. What a mess.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/12/politi...sis/index.html
Quote:

Washington (CNN)—The Obama administration doesn't often admit it messed up.

But the White House is cutting its losses as stateside critics accuse President Barack Obama of snubbing America's oldest ally by not joining -- or at least sending a high ranking official -- to a huge anti-terror march that produced some of the most evocative scenes on the streets of Paris since World War II.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest acknowledged "we should have sent someone with a higher profile," not even trying to justify the fact that largely unknown U.S. ambassador Jane Hartley was the top American official at Sunday's events.

Galaxy 01-13-2015 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2990969)
Romney was someone I could have supported other than his backing away from his own/similar healthcare reform legacy. So I'll look forward to any updated positions as Obamacare is reality now.

The Romney vs Bush battle will be entertaining. I guess this puts everyone else as a distant third or worse.

Romney to GOP donors: ‘I want to be president.’ - The Washington Post


Did Romney really create the healthcare reform legacy, or was it passed by a Democratic-controlled Massachusetts Legislature?

Galaxy 01-13-2015 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2990603)
I like it as an investment if the costs are not prohibitive. Not sure if community is same as vocational but would support vocational as well. Let's see the nos.

Obama To Propose Free Community College Program


Would need more details on what Obama is thinking here, but at face value, would this focus on skills/trades training, or just a path to college?

If it's the latter, it's a terrible proposal. We already have too many people in college as it. If it's the former, wouldn't it be better to adopt an intense apprentice program that is incorporated into high school-similar to something along the lines of what Germany does?

molson 01-13-2015 10:48 AM

Government-run community colleges could work, but this half-and-half stuff just leads to more cost inflation, doesn't it? The government so generously made cheap education loans available for everyone, so guess what, tuition costs just shot up and created the student loan debt generation, where even the middle and upper middle class kids start out life in a huge hole, which I think contributes to wealth disparity so much more than other things that are blamed like tax rates. Even with "free money", schools will just go after all that money that was saved some other way - more expensive textbooks, charging more for people who don't qualify for the program for whatever reason.

Izulde 01-13-2015 10:50 AM

Or continue to add more and more administrators while enslaving the academic faculty in part-time poverty.

Izulde 01-13-2015 10:50 AM

That said, I think the free community college program is worth looking at, and is an interesting idea.

Galaxy 01-13-2015 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izulde (Post 2992169)
That said, I think the free community college program is worth looking at, and is an interesting idea.


What would be the objective though? I mean, if everyone goes to at least community college (and beyond), you still have the same problems.

AENeuman 01-13-2015 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2992130)
Would need more details on what Obama is thinking here, but at face value, would this focus on skills/trades training, or just a path to college?

If it's the later, it's a terrible proposal. We already have too many people in college as it. If it's the former, wouldn't it be better to adopt an intense apprentice program that is incorporated into high school-similar to something along the lines of what Germany does?


Very much agree. Working at San Jose city college for last 9 years I have seen this in action. Most students do not make it, about 80% won't have a degree in 6 years. A large reason is they have to take college level math and English, when they are most likely at a 10th grade level (called English 92 here, by far most impacted course). Not tuition costs.

The big problems I see is textbooks still costs about 5 times tuition. California has cheap tuition, but still this is where the real expense is. So much so, I wouldn't be surprised if it is the textbook lobby that is pushing this bill.

IMHO. I think tuition and materials should be a tax deduction. Once a year, only completed units qualify.

I have hope in the growing vocational movement. My school has a great cosmetology, emt, hac, dental and (amazingly) butcher programs, all without much prerequisites.

Galaxy 01-13-2015 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AENeuman (Post 2992184)


I have hope in the growing vocational movement. My school has a great cosmetology, emt, hac, dental and (amazingly) butcher programs, all without much prerequisites.


And you can't outsource these jobs! We need electricians, plumbers, carpenters--all jobs that pay very well. I think teaching kids to be more entrepreneurial would go a long way as well, because we are moving towards an economy that is going to depend on that mindset.

Buccaneer 01-13-2015 11:56 AM

As much as I have advocated vocational training, the downfall is in the placements. I am leaning more towards companies (public and private) sponsoring courses/degrees at colleges, vocational training and school partnerships, as well as internships. For example, there is an acute shortage of trained electric linemen. So my company set up a vocational school to do just that. Employers know what they need, they can't depend upon educational entities to meet their needs. Now if we can solve the single biggest problem in healthcare : the shortage of physicians...

Edward64 01-17-2015 08:10 PM

Some news on what Obama will say on his address.

Obama to call for tax increases on wealthy in State of the Union address | Fox News
Quote:

The centerpiece of the president's tax proposal is an increase in the capital gains rate on couples making more than $500,000 per year to 28 percent, the same level as under President Ronald Reagan. The top capital gains rate has already been raised from 15 percent to 23.8 percent during Obama's presidency.

Obama also wants to close what the administration is calling the "Trust Fund Loophole," a change that would require estates to pay capital gains taxes on securities at the time they're inherited. Officials said the overwhelming impact of the change would be on the top 1 percent of income earners.
:
:
Administration officials pointed to a third proposal from the president as one they hope Republicans would support: a fee on the roughly 100 U.S. financial firms with assets of more than $50 billion. Officials said the fee is similar to a proposal from former Republican Rep. Dave Camp of Michigan, who led the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee. Camp's plan, however, was part of a larger proposal to lower the overall corporate income tax rate.

Raising the capital gains rate, ending the inheritance loophole and tacking a fee on financial firms would generate $320 billion in revenue over a decade, according to administration estimates. Obama wants to put the bulk of that money into a series of measures aimed at helping middle-class Americans. Among them:

--A credit of up to $500 for families in which both spouses work. The administration says 24 million couples would benefit from the proposal, which would apply to families with annual income up to $210,000.

--Expanding the child care tax credit to up to $3,000 per child under age 5. The administration says the proposal would help more than 5 million families with the cost of child care.

--Overhauling the education tax system by consolidating six provisions into two, a move that could cut taxes for 8.5 million families. Republicans have been open to the idea of consolidating education tax breaks.

Galaxy 01-17-2015 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izulde (Post 2992168)
Or continue to add more and more administrators while enslaving the academic faculty in part-time poverty.


Enslaving?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2993220)


Why?

By this question, I mean this has no chance of happening from just a political standpoint. Is it just to push the rhetoric?

larrymcg421 01-17-2015 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2993223)
By this question, I mean this has no chance of happening from just a political standpoint. Is it just to push the rhetoric?


Starting point for negotiations.

larrymcg421 01-17-2015 09:24 PM

Any thoughts on the SCOTUS gay marriage cases? It looks like we'll finally get a direct resolution. The questions presented are:

1) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to license a marriage between two people of the same sex?

2) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-state?

JPhillips 01-17-2015 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 2993225)
Starting point for negotiations.


This, plus trying to change Dem messaging going forward.

Honestly, I'm no fan of the cuts as they are too gimmicky for me. I love the financial transaction tax. Something needs to be done so that skimming isn't the country's biggest industry.

Galaxy 01-17-2015 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2993232)
This, plus trying to change Dem messaging going forward.

Honestly, I'm no fan of the cuts as they are too gimmicky for me. I love the financial transaction tax. Something needs to be done so that skimming isn't the country's biggest industry.


The speech will also call for higher taxes on the wealthy.

I don't mind tax cuts (I'm a Fair Tax/consumption-tax guy, but that's another debate), but they won't mean anything unless you have spending reforms/cuts to go along with them. The financial transacition tax...I'm all for it. The thing I like about it is that it's gets the public markets back to it's original purpose, and not a scheme based on high-frequency trading and algorithms, and it's almost like a consumption tax--not forced.

What is the change in the message going forward with this? Hasn't this been the message all along?

Dutch 01-18-2015 09:20 AM

Obama's message. Why earn it when you can just take it?

JPhillips 01-18-2015 09:55 AM

That's an interesting way for a conservative to frame tax cuts.

PilotMan 01-18-2015 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutch (Post 2993280)
Obama's message. Why earn it when you can just take it?


Always the argument. Always. It's always ok if money moves up from the bottom, never for it to move down in any fashion.

Money begets money. When you have it, you can make it easy to take from those who are trying. When you don't, you're pretty much fucked.

Dutch 01-18-2015 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 2993285)
Always the argument. Always. It's always ok if money moves up from the bottom, never for it to move down in any fashion.

Money begets money. When you have it, you can make it easy to take from those who are trying. When you don't, you're pretty much fucked.


Obama already moved that bracket from 15% to 24% under this same argument just a couple of years ago. Did that not have any positive effect? Because all I keep hearing about is how much the people in that tax bracket are bunch of selfish assholes. So if it didn't, what good will this do? We move it to 28% and then what? We like those rich people now? Of course not. It's an easy steal, which is my point.

JPhillips 01-18-2015 10:22 AM

The cap gains rate will still be lower than the top rates on earned income and this will return the rate to the level during the great socialist Reagan admin.

Ronald Reagan = theft from the wealthy!

Dutch 01-18-2015 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2993292)
The cap gains rate will still be lower than the top rates on earned income and this will return the rate to the level during the great socialist Reagan admin.

Ronald Reagan = theft from the wealthy!


Oh trust, me, I understand why that was placed in the article. But how is Hillary supposed to top this 28% tax that Obama just handed out? 33% in the first term. 38% in the second. Am I right? And the Democrat that takes her spot? 43% in the first term....48% in the second? Am I right again?

JPhillips 01-18-2015 10:29 AM

No. We liberals will only be happy with 110% tax rate!!!!

DEATH TO CAPITALISM!!!

Dutch 01-18-2015 10:31 AM

Exactly my point, nobody has an answer to this, but it's an easy steal.

JPhillips 01-18-2015 10:45 AM

There's no point in having a rational discussion when your argument is 28% will inevitably lead to 50% and the death of the American economy. If you want to discuss why 28% is clearly worse than 20% I'll listen. Personally I think capital gains should be at or close to the rates on earned income.

But none of this will happen, so neither of us should spend too much time on it.

Galaxy 01-18-2015 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutch (Post 2993297)
Exactly my point, nobody has an answer to this...and it's an easy steal.


What confuses me is there is no focus on real spending reforms and cut. Government can't, and shouldn't keep spending like a drunken sailor and trying to take care of every little need/

If half of Americans don't pay any federal income taxes, once credits kick in (which can pay back more than what people paid in), and the top 10% of income earners paid over 70% in federal taxes, with the to 20% paying 93% of all federal income taxes, how do you continue this argument?

"Buried inside a Congressional Budget Office report this week was this nugget: when it comes to individual income taxes, the top 40 percent of wage earners in America pay 106 percent of the taxes. The bottom 40 percent...pay negative 9 percent."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101264757#.

I guess the question is, and it's more philosophical, is should government--one that is about democracy-treat everyone the same in terms of "fairness"? With all of the credits available, should government be about playing favorites with all of these credits? Yes, we need to get lobbying and donations out of politics (and both sides aren't willing to do this), and introduce the financial transaction tax to reward investment and not gambling, but that's half of the battle.

Dutch 01-18-2015 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2993300)
There's no point in having a rational discussion when your argument is 28% will inevitably lead to 50% and the death of the American economy. If you want to discuss why 28% is clearly worse than 20% I'll listen. Personally I think capital gains should be at or close to the rates on earned income.

But none of this will happen, so neither of us should spend too much time on it.


Didn't we have the same argument and you have the same point when we went from 15% to 24%? The only real solution is a flat tax--and I understand the problems associated with that-but benefit is that it affects all voters each and every time. Not just Democrats picking on Republican voters and vice-versa...although, as you pointed out, looks like Reagan picked on his own voters too.

JPhillips 01-18-2015 10:57 AM

You can't ignore other taxes. The federal system is still progressive, but when you look at all taxes it isn't anything like what you point out for income taxes.

I'll agree that the difference between marginal and effective rates should be narrowed.

cartman 01-18-2015 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2993301)
If half of Americans don't pay any federal income taxes, once credits kick in (which can pay back more than what people paid in), and the top 10% of income earners paid over 70% in federal taxes, with the to 20% paying 93% of all federal income taxes, how do you continue this argument?


You can continue it by pointing out the growing gulf between the haves and the have nots. Fairness is more than just absolute numbers. Before the reductions in the top income tax rate in the early 1980s, the top 0.1% of wage earners received 8% of the total income. Now that figure is 18%. Meanwhile the bottom 20% of wage earners had their share of the total income drop by 1/3rd.

Money is like oxygen to the economy. You have to keep it circulating.

JPhillips 01-18-2015 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutch (Post 2993303)
Didn't we have the same argument and you have the same point when we went from 15% to 24%? The only real solution is a flat tax--and I understand the problems associated with that-but benefit is that it affects all voters each and every time. Not just Democrats picking on Republican voters and vice-versa...although, as you pointed out, looks like Reagan picked on his own voters too.


Would you apply this to all forms of income or just earned income?

The problem with a flat tax is that when you add state and local taxes you'd end up with a fairly significantly regressive tax system. The income tax is the one place where progressivity balances the system.

Dutch 01-18-2015 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2993305)
I'll agree that the difference between marginal and effective rates should be narrowed.


I've bolded the parts to help people better understand what you are talking about here. :)

Quote:

A MARGINAL tax rate refers to the tax rate an individual would pay on one additional dollar of income.[1][2][3] Thus, the marginal tax rate is the tax percentage on the highest dollar earned. In the United States in 2013, for example, the highest marginal tax rate was 39.6%, applying to earnings over $400,000. Earnings under $400,000 that year had a lower tax rate of 33% or less.[4]

The marginal tax rate on income can be expressed mathematically as follows:
\frac{\Delta t}{\Delta i}
where t is the total tax liability and i is total income, and ∆ refers to a numerical change. In accounting practice, the tax denominator in the above equation usually includes taxes at federal, state, provincial, and municipal levels. Marginal tax rates are applied to income in countries with progressive taxation schemes, with incremental increases in income taxed in progressively higher tax brackets.

In economics, marginal tax rates are important because they impact the incentive of increased income. With higher marginal tax rates, individuals have less incentive to earn more. This is the basis of the Laffer curve, which theorizes that population-wide taxable income decreases as a function of the marginal tax rate, making net governmental tax revenues decrease beyond a certain taxation point.

With a flat tax, by comparison, all income is taxed at the same percentage, regardless of amount. An example is a sales tax where all purchases are taxed equally. A poll tax is a flat tax of a set dollar amount per person. The marginal tax in these scenarios would be zero.

Implicit marginal tax rate

For individuals that receive means tested benefits, benefits are decreased as more income is earned. This is sometimes described as an implicit tax.[5] These implicit marginal tax rates can exceed 90%[6] or even greater than 100%.[7] Some economists argue that these issues create a disincentive for work or promotion and may result in a structural income inequality.

The term EFFECTIVE tax rate has different meanings in different contexts. Generally its calculation attempts to adjust a nominal tax rate to make it more meaningful. It may incorporate econometric, estimated, or assumed adjustments to actual data, or may be based entirely on assumptions or simulations.[8]

The term is used in financial reporting to measure the total tax paid as a percentage of the company's accounting income, instead of as a percentage of the taxable income. International Accounting Standard 12,[9] define it as income tax expense or benefit for accounting purposes divided by accounting profit. In Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (United States), the term is used in official guidance only with respect to determining income tax expense for interim (e.g., quarterly) periods by multiplying accounting income by an "estimated annual effective tax rate," the definition of which rate varies depending on the reporting entity's circumstances.[10]

In U.S. income tax law, the term is used in relation to determining whether a foreign income tax on specific types of income exceeds a certain percentage of U.S. tax that would apply on such income if U.S. tax had been applicable to the income.[11]

The popular press, Congressional Budget Office, and various think tanks have used the term to mean varying measures of tax divided by varying measures of income, with little consistency in definition.[12]

Investors usually modify a statutory marginal tax rate to create the effective tax rate appropriate for their decision.

For example: If capital gains are only taxed when realized by a sale, the effective tax rate is the yearly rate that would have applied to the average yearly gain so that the resulting after-tax profit is the same as when all taxed at statutory rates on sale. It will be lower than the statutory rate because unrealized profits are reinvested without tax.

For example: When dividends are both taxed as income, and also generate a tax credit in the UK and Canadian system, the effective tax rate is the net effect of both - the net tax divided by the actual dividend's value.

For example: When contributions are made to Tax Deferred Accounts the reduced tax base will result in reduced taxes calculated at the statutory marginal rate. But the reduction in the tax base may also affect qualification for other government benefits. The difference in those benefits is added to the numerator to increase the effective marginal rate due to the contribution.

Tax rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Dutch 01-18-2015 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2993307)
Would you apply this to all forms of income or just earned income?

The problem with a flat tax is that when you add state and local taxes you'd end up with a fairly significantly regressive tax system. The income tax is the one place where progressivity balances the system.


I'm not sure, what I would like is a vision for taxes needed and apply it fairly across all spectrums. And this may need an honest discussion of what services we can provide as a baseline. I'm okay with less taxes for the poor and more for the rich, but I'm not a fan of Democrats hiking Republican taxes and Republicans hiking Democrats taxes.

When it comes to taxes, philosophically, our political extremes are clearly not in the best interest of our nation.

albionmoonlight 01-19-2015 07:53 AM

Pres. Obama seems to finally be embracing his liberal side to some degree. He is proposing a series of tax breaks for the middle class, paid for by closing tax loopholes and increasing taxes on the very wealthy. Of course, he only proposes this after the Democrats lose any control in Congress and, therefore, his proposals will have no chance whatsoever of even being debated, let alone enacted.

If he were serious about this, he would have proposed it when the Dems had some power in Congress. As it is now, it is empty rhetoric and red meat for the Daily Kos crowd.

Both parties have abandoned the middle class in favor of their wealthy donor class. At least the Republicans admit that. The Dems still lie about who they are and what they represent.

flounder 01-19-2015 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2990603)
I like it as an investment if the costs are not prohibitive. Not sure if community is same as vocational but would support vocational as well. Let's see the nos.


Apparently part of the cost is going to be covered by taxing 529 college savings plans. What a load of crap.

bob 01-21-2015 06:33 PM

Nothing in here about Obama's state of the union address.

Is that a sign of FOFC's decline or the lame duck-ness of his presidency?

Thomkal 01-21-2015 08:25 PM

Best moment is when the President zinged the Republicans when he said he won't be running for office anymore and they cheered him. Then he told them he won them both :) R's stop cheering.

It really didn't matter too much what he said-Repblicans won't allow him to fulfill any of his promises or plans except through executive action, and they are looking to find a way to take even that away legally.

And then to rub it in, Boehner announced that the Israeli PM would be speaking to Congress next month...telling the President minutes before-not asking, telling. So that PM can tell Americans how wrong the President's plans for Iran are...which is exactly the way The R's see it.

So in other words, just another day in Washington.

albionmoonlight 01-22-2015 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 2994519)
Nothing in here about Obama's state of the union address.

Is that a sign of FOFC's decline or the lame duck-ness of his presidency?


A sign of the times. I streamed Transparent that night and checked blog reactions later that night.

Also, the Patriots played a football game with footballs that contained less air than normal. So that kind of [pun]took all of the air out of the room.[/pun]

JonInMiddleGA 01-22-2015 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 2994519)
Nothing in here about Obama's state of the union address. Is that a sign of FOFC's decline or the lame duck-ness of his presidency?


{shrug}

I haven't watched one in years, in part they seem to be made even more pointless by how much of their content is out there days ahead of time.

miked 01-22-2015 12:00 PM

Well, to kick off the new season the republicans canned a bill they were going to vote on because they could not agree amongst themselves. The vote was on an anti-abortion bill that they had previously passed last session that went nowhere because of the same reasons it did not advance today. So, in other words, business as usual no matter what Obama says. If he proposes a tax cut, they'll oppose it because they want the credit. The tone of his speech was actually not as fiery as Fox News suggested, but rather scrap the shit they can't agree on (i.e. Healthcare) and do something on the stuff where they may be common ground.

RainMaker 01-22-2015 12:57 PM

Yeah I don't see the point in watching them. They are all available online. Most of the speeches are filled with "feel-good" soundbites and overly rehearsed.

Blah blah middle class hurting...blah blah working two jobs. He doesn't give a shit about most of that stuff and certainly isn't going to change anything.

molson 01-22-2015 01:12 PM

I was reading something yesterday about the history of the state of union addresses. Amazingly, the state of the union always tends to be "strong" if you listen to these speeches. Has there every been a president who said that the state of union sucked? I know Jimmy Carter had a pretty negative one.

Edit: Ah, here's the list I was looking for:

Why is the State of the Union Always 'Strong'? | Acton PowerBlog

Reagan started the "strong" gimmick, everyone has followed it since then. And good 'ole Gerald Ford keeping it real, things were "not good" in 1975

Desnudo 01-23-2015 04:10 PM

Wants to tax withdrawals on 529 contributions which are already post-tax contributions. Good luck with that.

529 college plans: Just for the rich? - Yahoo Finance

ISiddiqui 01-23-2015 04:19 PM

It may already be post-tax contributions, but the 529s have special tax breaks to begin with. Before 2001, withdrawals from 529s were treated as ordinary income. It is literally a tax loophole (as are tax breaks for employer sponsored health care). You may think its a good loophole, but its a loophole, none the less.

bob 01-23-2015 04:42 PM

So I don't think this would pass, and even if it did, it would likely only be for new accounts and deposits made after the bill passed.

But let's say it passed against all accounts. Would you rethink retirement accounts like Roth IRAs? There's a lot more money to tax in those.

ISiddiqui 01-23-2015 04:47 PM

I'd think you'd want to keep Roth IRA's as incentives to investment for retirement - the income limits allow for taxing those who may have less need for incentivizing investment.

Galaxy 01-23-2015 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2995111)
It is literally a tax loophole (as are tax breaks for employer sponsored health care).


I suggested eliminating this to some liberal-leaning people a while back at a get together, and they were outraged at such a suggestion. It doesn't bother me that it's not taxed or taxed--just that it is a tax break that plays with the insurance/health care costs.

JPhillips 01-24-2015 12:08 PM

Quote:


In a big unexpected twist in the new Congress, Senate Republicans are reportedly crafting a plan to do away with the 60-vote filibuster for Supreme Court justice nominees.

Politico reported Friday evening that the plan, though in its early stages, was being led by Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Roy Blunt (R-MO).

“What we would like to do is adopt by rule the way the Senate has always operated,” Alexander told Politico. “The history of the Senate has been up-or-down votes, as I call them, at 51.”

I'm not necessarily opposed to eliminating the filibuster for SCOTUS, but the incredible hypocrisy of Alexander's quote is shameless.

Edward64 01-24-2015 01:00 PM

I get that Bibi needs to do what he thinks is best for his country but I don't understand the rationale for being so disrespectful to a sitting president. He could have told Obama that he was coming at the invitation of the GOP regardless of any Obama objections, why hide it?

There's probably been some earlier incident where he thought this was payback.

Netanyahu snub takes relations with White House to a new low - CNN.com
Quote:

President Barack Obama and U.S. officials were completely blindsided by the announcement that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will come to Washington to address a joint session of Congress this spring -- a move that's rattled the White House and diplomatic officials.

The announcement from House Speaker John Boehner's office this week came after several high-level interactions between U.S. and Israeli officials, including a phone call between Obama and Netanyahu and a multi-hour meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer, a senior administration official told CNN.
:
The Boehner announcement came just over a week after Obama spoke over the phone with Netanyahu and urged him not to lobby in favor of new Iran sanctions, "asking for some space," a senior administration official said. But the hawkish Israeli Prime Minister has a track record of supporting tougher sanctions against Iran and he's expected to make that case when he addresses Congress in March.
:
Obama's phone call with Netanyahu and Kerry's meeting with Dermer just before the announcement give the snub a more personal veneer.

Kerry had made more than 50 calls in the preceding month to world leaders on the hot topics of Israeli-Palestinian relations, such as Palestinian attempts to gain statehood through international organizations, the source said, adding that Kerry's "patience is not infinite."

The in-your-face move from Netanyahu's camp comes at a time when Israel needs American support on the international stage, with Palestinians making a full-court press to obtain statehood unilaterally through international institutions.

Another senior U.S. official said the Israeli breach of protocol and diplomatic courtesy takes a toll on U.S. officials working strenuously to support Israel on the international stage.

"They come to us with a lot of requests, but don't have the courtesy of telling us? That is what tipped it for us," the official said.


flere-imsaho 01-26-2015 09:28 AM

Netanyahu's been disrespectful of Obama since day one. This isn't out of character.

Mizzou B-ball fan 01-26-2015 04:47 PM

Boy, you'd think it would take more than four months for this statement to look bad. From the President last September.........

Quote:

"This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

Today, the U.S. Embassy in Yemen has basically told everyone they're on their own and to exit ASAP.

Obama Tonight: Yemen and Somalia Are Models of Success (!) | The Weekly Standard

ISiddiqui 01-26-2015 05:00 PM

Yemen's previous government is obvious not our partner on the front lines anymore... since, you know, they've been overthrown in a coup. Sooo... what's the big deal?

SackAttack 01-26-2015 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2995240)
I'm not necessarily opposed to eliminating the filibuster for SCOTUS, but the incredible hypocrisy of Alexander's quote is shameless.


Well, to be fair (lol) he was probably saying things like that in 2006 when the words "nuclear option" first entered the lexicon. It's just that after 2008, the filibuster was a useful tool to try to prevent President Obama from appointing "liberal" judges.

Now they're looking ahead to 2016 and going "we have the House and the Senate and everything's going to be Republican forever let's get rid of the SCOTUS filibuster."

It's a dangerous play. If you look at the 2016 Senate map, Republicans have 24 seats to defend, including one in Vermont, one in Wisconsin, one in Illinois, one in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania. None of those are certain to flip, of course, and Wisconsin in particular has been weird. They voted Johnson in over Feingold in 2010, then voted to re-elect Barack Obama and to elect Tammy Baldwin before voting to re-elect Scott Walker. Don't ask me to predict whether the Democratic Party in this state will be able to evict Johnson from office.

The point is, it's a Presidential election year. All five of those states voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008. Yes, Ohio and Pennsylvania are swing states, Vermont's kinda independent-minded, and Wisconsin, as I said above, has been fucking weird the last six years or so. But those states represent opportunities all the same.

The Republican nightmare? Nuking the SCOTUS filibuster and then waking up on November 9, 2016 to a Democratic President-elect who also has a 52- or 51-seat majority in the Senate. Yes, there'd be time to re-impose the filibuster because OH SHIT WE LOST but it's just as possible that the incoming Democratic Senate says 'nope. you made that bed, fuckers. We'll be removing the SCOTUS filibuster again.'

That's a move I'd expect to see from the Republicans if their candidate for President won the election in 2016, not just because in 2015.

lungs 01-26-2015 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack (Post 2995720)
Wisconsin in particular has been weird. They voted Johnson in over Feingold in 2010, then voted to re-elect Barack Obama and to elect Tammy Baldwin before voting to re-elect Scott Walker. Don't ask me to predict whether the Democratic Party in this state will be able to evict Johnson from office.


The pattern seems to be Democrats are strong in Presidential election years, making Johnson vulnerable in 16. Then again, WI Democrats have been putting up some weak candidates. Ron Kind is about the only name I can think of that would be a good bet to unseat Johnson. I'd say Kind was the only person that could've challenged Walker but he is smarter than I am and knew Walker was beating anybody that was put out there.

SackAttack 01-26-2015 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 2995726)
The pattern seems to be Democrats are strong in Presidential election years, making Johnson vulnerable in 16. Then again, WI Democrats have been putting up some weak candidates. Ron Kind is about the only name I can think of that would be a good bet to unseat Johnson. I'd say Kind was the only person that could've challenged Walker but he is smarter than I am and knew Walker was beating anybody that was put out there.


Kind would probably get some crap from the netroots in the primaries for having voted to weaken the Wall Street reforms, though.

Here's the thing with Johnson, though: does Wisconsin really have wood for Walker, or is he just benefiting from the timing of his three elections (two off-year, one in June of a Presidential year)? That matters, because if Walker's electoral success in Wisconsin is built on an actual base and not just the off-year malaise of the Democrats, he could have coattails for Johnson if he wins the Republican Presidential nomination.

If it's just that Walker got elected in 2010 when Democrats were pouting about Republican obstructionism, avoided recall in 2012 because the election was in June and not November, and got re-elected in 2014 because it was another down midterm for Democrats, then Johnson is probably in trouble next year.

Either way, Wisconsin is goofy and until/unless a Republican Presidential ticket emerges that doesn't have Scott Walker on it, I won't feel comfortable predicting what Wisconsin is going to do in 2016.

flere-imsaho 01-27-2015 08:21 AM

IIRC, Wisconsin's basically a red state except for Madison & Milwaukee. If key voting blocs (young people in Madison, poor people in Milwaukee) don't turn out for the Democrats, the state easily goes Republican. lungs - correct me if I'm wrong here.

When you have big concentrated pockets of votes you can easily handle elections if your GOTV is good (see: Obama 2008) or crater if they stay home en masse, which they are more likely to do as homogenous voting blocs (see: 2010 & 2014).

flere-imsaho 01-27-2015 08:27 AM

My perception is that the filibuster has become little more than a tool for parliamentary games, at this point. When was the last time it was used to stop legislation for actual ideological purposes? I don't think they even used it for the last actually unqualified SCOTUS nominee (Miers). I could be wrong, though, so correct me if I am.

Given that, the non-partisan part of me (yes, it's small), says just eliminate it (even if just for SCOTUS, on top of federal judgeships) and get on with business. This back-and-forth "will they, won't they" is just annoying and counter-productive.

I suppose the partisan part of me says keep it so Democrats can block truly unqualified candidates, but I think even the GOP (I'll probably regret this) won't let someone like Miers through in the future. And as much as I dislike Roberts and Alito, they're qualified, and you win the Oval Office you get to put those guys on the bench.

lungs 01-27-2015 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 2995771)
IIRC, Wisconsin's basically a red state except for Madison & Milwaukee. If key voting blocs (young people in Madison, poor people in Milwaukee) don't turn out for the Democrats, the state easily goes Republican. lungs - correct me if I'm wrong here.


Basically. Far north along Lake Superior tends to be blue but the population is pretty low. Western Wisconsin between Madison and the Mississippi River is the bellweather region. Obama took every county along this corridor while in the governor election only a few counties went blue. Racine and Kenosha also went for both Obama and Walker.

The Milwaukee suburbs up through Green Bay and the rural central parts of the state are pretty solidly red. That region just sent Glenn Grothman to the House for pete's sake. I think if JimGA gets to know Grothman, he'd probably rank among his more liked House Reps :)

edit: Forgot to say Sack is absolutely right about the Walker coattails in a Presidential year if he's on the ticket.

SackAttack 01-27-2015 03:37 PM

Madison and Milwaukee are also two of the three biggest cities in the state though, and the overall state population isn't terribly large. Saying that if you exclude those two cities (when cities tend to be Democratic strongholds), the state is pretty solidly Republican?

Shit, son, that's probably true of most states in the country. "If Democratic blocs don't turn out in Los Angeles and San Francisco..."


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