Fascinating theory on Italy’s terrible outcomes here:

Moritz Kuhn on Twitter: "@christianbaye13 & me have been thinking about the big differences in mortality rates so far during the corona outbreak in Europe. The differences in case-fatality rates are humongous. Italy has one of 6% while countries like Norway, Denmark & Germany have rates still close to 0.… https://t.co/ikpTIaKXJ3"

My car wash sent me updated policies on how they are handling Covid so I def feel more at ease

36 now with 350 tests pending with at least one now in my county.

ETA:

I also want to say I find the Ohio Director of the Department of Health, Dr. Amy Acton, HOT.



She can wash my hands any day.

20 here in Fulton County with another 40 or so in surrounding counties.

I was out briefly this morning. Our small Tacoma suburb was dead except for some activity at Safeway. The south part of tacoma that I drove through was a ghost town.

I'm curious to see what the drive to work tomorrow morning looks like.

My county here In SC has had its first POS test for the virus today. Governor ready to cancel all schools in the state

Daniel Goldman, the lawyer who handled the Democratic side of the House Impeachment Trial has announced he has tested positive for the Virus, He's mostly through the worst of it he says, and his wife who is also showing symptoms, can't be tested in NYC unless she's admitted.

Just talked to one of my best friends. He is a firefighter in Cincinnati. For those familiar with the city his station handles mostly OTR, it is the ghetto. He said it is calm right now but they are expecting it to get really bad there and once it does it is going to rip through that community.

NCAA - No brackets for canceled tournaments


I am disproportionately annoyed this isn't happening.


SI

4 cases in Missouri.

2 in St louis county, which is next door to where I live.

Ohio closing all bars and restaurants as of 9 PM tonight. Carry out and delivery still allowed.

From WaPo:


The Trump voters are going to all kill themselves in order to own the libs.

I read this as a large amount of undetected cases in Italy skewing the stats. Just too overwhelmed at this point to test.

Not to say that there are not other factors too.

We're getting to the point where you have to question if "flattening the curve" is worth decimating entire industries and putting the capable people out of work and in danger to protect the elderly and infirm. That said, I certainly don't have the answer.

This virus isn't just hitting the elderly, about 50% of the patients that ended up on intensive care in the Netherlands are under 50 years of age.

Testing in South Korea showed a massive peak in the 20-29 age group in the groups of contaminated people.

Illinois doing the same. No news yet on Michigan but I wouldn't be surprised if we're not far behind. As of this moment, it's business as usual where I work. Scheduling hasn't changed, email this weekend from the parent company was of the 'circle the wagons' and encouragement variety.


As someone who's in such an industry, though not as bad as some others like the airlines, I'm leaning yes here. If you don't, you cause more damage probably through the various ripple effects. Definitely a darned if you do, darned if you don't scenario, but I'd rather lose little than lose big.

I would like to read more about demographics and critical/not critical/fatal statistics. Can you provide a link that has this by country?

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer







And detailed stats per country:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I dunno if you can get those demographics broken down by country tho.

I'm trying to stick with the position, right now, that we are amidst such uncertainty here, that we are all bound to say things that, in the fullness of time, will appear to be unwise or unfounded. And those things we have said or done will have been born of ignorance or misinformation, rather than deep defects in our humanity.

All ages, shapes, and sizes.. with Philadelphia casinos closed, Atlantic City seemed to be busy.. Saw a few people wearing gloves, but most were acting like everything normal..

Governor Murphy said yesterday, “no plans to close casinos”...

That seems prudent. Some industries & their workers are probably better prepared for this than others. I think of the folks that work for hourly wages in bars and restaurants as some of the most financially vulnerable folks in the country....in Ohio's case it sounds like they're putting together some kind of safety net to make sure those folks aren't suddenly unemployed and on the streets/shelters en masse.

Illinois closing bars and restaurants

"President Trump says he is unaware that his administration disbanded the pandemic response team established by the Obama administration."

This fucking guy.

That is most definitely the case. Also, the high average age of active cases (not just deaths) is 99% an indication that they had to pretty much abandon most of the proactive testing and a disproportional number of tests are done on people with at least (!) medium symptoms that actually seek out medical help. And the later you discover it, the worse the odds of recovery. Even with no specific medication, proper medical care from, say, day 2 of symptoms is much prefereable to proper care from day 4 or 5.

The System simply collapsed with not enough tests, emergency beds (with breathing aparatus) or qualified personel for the onslaught that hit them. And that was due to missing the first cases (bad luck more than anything else) and while they close traffic from China the virus spread to the point where 3 weeks later an avalanche of already very sick people started arriving in hospitals.

And as soon as you move past 'capacity' death rates go up by a lot. And remember patients im china on average stayed 3 weeks in intensive care before dying or being on the path to recovery, so once you are past capacity the system is breaking down for a long while. And remember that the majority of cases is concentrated in just parts of the country.

.y hope for here (Germany) is that there is no indication the first wave was missed (and even now a lot of cases can be connected and traced rather than coming out of the blue and in bad shape already) and the fact we have by far more intensive care spots per capita than both Italy and Spain. Basically it would have to be substantially worse numbers to crash the system like that and so far and with at least a few measures enacted we might end up ok ...

One more Factor not mentioned enough, largely because tougher to quantify/qualify: Smoking. Which is not exactly surprising for a respiratory infection and also is likely to contribute a lot to the sex disparity (which is consistent with other respiratory infections and diseases). China has an especially big difference in women smoking and men doing so.

Trump back to complete nonsense ranting.

Good point. I had wondered about the gender discrepancy & had heard about the smoking effect, but didn't put the two together..

As I read this, the first words to come to mind was death panels. Not saying that you meant it in a callous way or anything like that. Just the words that popped into my head. I don't have any answers either. It is an interesting social observation nonetheless.

Anecdotal for sure but back in early February (in St. Louis county) I had about two weeks where we were missing unusually large amounts of kids. I mean one class of 24 had 13 absent one day and all 6 of my classes were missing at least 15-20% of the kids. Lots of coughing, lots of negative flu tests. There are always certain bad periods in the winter but I haven't seen anything like this in years.


So I saw this research on twitter (and this is through Sam Harris not Donald Trump or Clay Travis something :) ) about the number of people who tested negative in Missouri, California, Massachusetts, and Washington state for the flu the past 10 winters (black being this year) with flu-like symptoms. Seems like COVID-19 may have arrived a lot earlier than we thought. (Being scientists they get into a lot of other possible explanations but say Missouri is the most unusual) Not sure if that is a bad thing meaning it will soon be out of control or a really good thing that the death rates etc may be way off due to untested and this has already hit a big chunk of the population. Interesting nonetheless...

Caitlin Rivers, PhD on Twitter: "Regions 7 and 10 and a number of states are showing some unusual activity, particularly CA and MO. But we have important caveats (click each picture to see more). 2/3… https://t.co/OaZus9eY9O"

Coronavirus Update (Live): 169,211 Cases and 6,492 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Everybody in my office was sick around the middle of February too, and it particularly stuck out to me at the time that several people were complaining of headaches, which is a common enough problem when sick but not usually the first thing people complain about. Of course now I have to wonder...

Yeah I don't claim to know more than the scientists or the people paid to do this but often they are in Atlanta/DC/whatever aggregating data from everywhere. I thought it was really unusual at the time and even joked with my principal we might get a flu day off. Again if true that it started earlier it could actually be a bad thing that a bunch of people are going to soon be really sick but it could also be the opposite that the death rate is not going to be as high as the 3% they are sometimes talking about.

Dola: Of course I live in what has now become a red state so while Illinois just 20 minutes away is cancelling schools, closing bars/restaurants, ours is one of the only states in the country still having their state basketball tournament and clinging to the asinine idea that there are under 10 cases in the entire state of Missouri. So I am certain we will react here in the dumbest way possible.

"Reckanizing."

!remindme 5 years :p

SI

One thing that I've been very impressed with. We've really upped our meme game with coronavirus. It's the protest songs of this era... (if protest songs only took 30 seconds on the crapper to come up with and would be seen by like 1/1000th of 1% of the population).


SI

Fed is definitely worried.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...?mod=home-page

Initial Futures reaction

Yeah, same thing in my office. There was some bug going around later last year/early this year that kept people out for a few days to a week. Thought it was a bad case of the flu. Don't know of anyone that went to the doctor from it.

Read recently that the same thing happened around the same time in other areas. Not sure if they're all connected to this, but that may be the reason why some are treating this as nothing more than another occurrence of that bug.

The Fed is largely out of weapons now and Dow futures are crashing.

Congress and the President have to do much more starting with fixing the testing problems for the virus. The economy is secondary to the health crisis. So long as it looks like we're losing the battle with the virus, we can't fix the economy.

It will be both most likely. If the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) hits 3% at the end of the main wave (be it May or August) it will mean the system was overloaded and even then the actual rate will be a lot lower since the US seems much more likely to have people with mild symptoms never get to a doctor, much less get tested. From what i gathered the CFR will be about 1ish for countries without overloaded systems, 3ish for those that are initially. Even Italy should hopefully come down a lot with time as social distancing effect kicks in. Plus most viruses tend to get less potent as time passes ...

It will be intereting what comes out of the first studies in China testing for antibodies in people not having been treated for the Virus.

Let them, and their mentality, die.

He ever did anything else?

We just got a call from the school system. The one case so far in our county was an employee of one of the schools.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/t...sultPosition=1

I am not endorsing any of the hate being directed at this guy and his family. Full Stop.

The frustration I have is this.


OWN YOUR SH*T!

Of course that was your intention. The article from the previous day clearly laid out all the things you intentionally did with the knowledge that you were keeping it out of the hands of people that needed it! If they needed it, they would pay top dollar for it. This is how the business worked. That was the game was played. To claim ignorance now? No, that is the person that you are. Own it!

Dude at the gas station just said Virginia shut their borders. No one in or out.

St. Louis County and St Charles county schools closing.

St Louis county banning gatherings over 50 starting March 18.

The world is ending.

Virginia did not close the border.

Then what is protecting the rest of us from Virginians! :eek:

No shit. What are they going to do next, secede from the Union?

I didnt think they did. Not sure where the gas station dude got his info.

I don't get it