In you situation I would just cancel depending on the contract in place. If April and May don't happen, and you don't need the spots next year whats the point. Maybe a couple weeks in June? Doesn't seem worth it.

The idea that the Federal Govt isn't the ONLY buyer and then distributing the PPE and such is criminal. They've literally created a desperate buyer pool for limited supplies and the American People are going to die because of it. There are so many things occurring that are just baffling and scream of incompetence that I might have to take it to the other thread. I used to think that no American would die based on the incompetence of ouur politicians yet I was proven wrong again similarly to when I thought we'd hit a bottom of our morality...wrong again.

We are struggling with how to handle refunds for Little League. It looks like we won't have a season (we are still holding onto a 1% chance we can have the playoffs in May/June). We charged $150 a kid, but already gave our full personalized uniforms (around $45 a kid) and played about 5 weeks of practices/games (had to pay for fields, etc). In the event we have to cancel the season, we are trying to figure out how to handle this. One board member thinks we shouldn't do anything (no refunds since they played for 1 month+). Another wants to move the season to the fall (that's a no from me as I am off this summer and don't want to be roped in another year - plus a big chunk of kids play club/other sports which makes allowances in the spring, but not the fall).

My thinking is we figure expenses (probably $45 a kid for unis, prorate the field and other expenses to this point - prob $30-35 a kid) and then give back as much as we can as a refund. My guess would be around $70-75. What do you guys think? Giving that big of a refund would make things pretty tight going into next year, but I'm not sure it is fair to not refund a family if they paid $300 for two kids to play baseball from Feb-May and they only got 5 weeks.

Partial refund seems like the best option.

Have parents pay for what was consumed, and they get the rest back.

It's worse than incompetence. We know companies have lobbied the WH not to use it and we know that states and cities are bidding up the prices in order to get what's available.

It's all about companies making more profits.

+1

This seems to be the most sensible option. Probably still causes outrage, because people are going to people, but yeah.

I basically support this. I'd be willing to be transparent on what was spent and what needs to be in place for the coming year and then give back the rest.

Yeah, this is almost exactly what I said. We just break down how we came up with the refund calculation. As one guy said, we can't give $50,000 in refunds if we only have $30,000.

:withstupid:

Partial seems fair...and I'm guessing that might be what I can expect when our flag league is cancelled. Maybe with our family camp/vacation in June as well.

Our kids' soccer league played one game before the shutdown. They've closed until 4/1 and the last communication was that they'd try to condense the season (multiple games per weekend) into April and early May. I, uh, don't see that happening.

Lots of organizations struggling with the idea of refunds. See airlines but another one I've heard of is concert tickets. Shows are postponed, not cancelled, with people being told once dates are rescheduled they can either keep the ticket or get a refund. But very very few shows are actually being rescheduled so money is being held hostage.

Surgeon General still talking about containment. And also about other needed things like people not staying at home and taking the outbreak seriously, but I just don't see how someone can look at the current situation and still be thinking containment is a viable option. I thought it was a week and a half ago, and I was probably already wrong then, but now? New York alone proves that isn't a thing.

Klobuchars husband positive and in the hospital.

Most of the country isn't in the position of NYC. Containment in, for example, my hometown in rural Ohio is absolutely still possible.

Take this for what it is worth.

The CEO of my company is one of the CEOs that have been invited to the WH during all of this, travel & leisure industry.

It has been said that he has informed our leadership to expect a federal government stay at home order to come out before Wednesday. So, work on providing folks with the means to work from home as quickly as possible, as much as possible.

I heard this from someone outside of IT who says their VP has told them this.

So, who knows how much is true.

I doubt very much it's possible in most big cities. Containment in the broader picture is gone. In certain areas such as you describe? Sure. But we've never had enough testing available for long enough to get to the point of even knowing how big the problem actually is, which means it's far worse than the number of cases tell us. Not an issue for me as I live in a rural area, but that's not most of the people in the country.

Flag ball is trying something similar out here...and I mean, come on.

Yeah, urban areas are tough. We'll need different strategies for different areas. Unfortunately, the President and the GOP seem to be moving to a herd immunity idea that will get a lot of people killed.

NC schools closed through May 15th now. Many businesses closed through May 15th as well.

I can't imagine any schools are going to re-open for this semester. Fulton County is suggesting April 13, but that seems crazy now.

Per same presser: "don't use day care if you don't have to, but they can remain open."

When I was talking to my wife last night I realized that she was under the impression that the purpose of social distancing was to cause the virus to die out and then regular life would resume as normal. When I explained that what is happening now is just to slow the spread of the virus and make sure we don't overwhelm the healthcare system but that we are going to be dealing with this virus in some fashion for the foreseeable future she seemed devastated. And she is someone who has taken this very seriously.

It got me thinking - what percentage of Americans right now really understand the purpose of social distancing? Do people really understand that we are "flattening the curve" and just trying to space out or stagger the number of people who get sick or are they expecting to emerge from their homes in a month or two and have the virus completely gone?

I bet it's the latter. Most folks probably think after 4-8 weeks everything will be exactly the same. I think it's slowly dawning on folks that it's to keep the healthcare system from collapsing and we are going to be dealing with some restrictions for a while (like maybe in May or June we can go back to gatherings of 50 or less and gradually move up from there).

I do wonder if this will have a permanent change in how we greet one another. Some East Asian countries already are not that fond of 'touch' greetings - whether that's hugs or handshakes. I am curious to see if that's the direction we go into.

My impression is also that a lot of people don't get it. Some do, as well, but for example one guy at work was wanting us to host a pancake breakfast for people. Came from a good place, but when we explained you can't have more than five people in at a time, have to be six feet apart, he was like 'oh nobody really cares about that'.

And then you have the beach stuff and whatnot. So there's a significant number at least who really don't get it, and I think it's going to be a hard blow to them when they realize what's really happening. I increasingly feel guilty for how good I have it. Will probably be going to give blood this week as that's something that is coming under pressure and it looks like I won't be working, but I have a relative who is also my landlord and is suspending my limited rent payments indefinitely, some savings, supportive family structure, etc.

Can't stop thinking about the fact that so many don't have that, are oblivious, and aside from obviously praying I can't do a darned thing to help them.

I hope it was worth it, you fucking morons.

Florida college students test positive for coronavirus after going on spring break

The thing that really pisses me off if they won't grasp how their actions have now put other people in jeopardy.

Olympics postponed indefinitely, which was inevitable.

drip, drip, drip.

When parents send their kids to Spring Break, they're not sending their best. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. Some of them, I suppose, are good people.

I think a lot of it is also that people think they will just get mild symptoms and they'll tough through it like any disease. Only, it's pretty clear that healthy adults can get hit hard enough by this to have to go to the ER. And I think people are really in denial about that.

SI

lol

:bowdown::bowdown::bowdown:

Every thought I have about spring break goes back to MTV in the 90s. I've never made a spring break trip and I feel like the only people that do are fucking idiots.

I've never been much of a partier though.

I still wonder if some people had COVID-19 back in February. I know a few people close to us (including my wife) had pretty brutal cases of the flu that took them out of commission for 4-5 days in late Feb. It would be nice if we could eventually come up with a way to see if we had it or currently carry it.

I think partial refunds is fair. But I say be honest and explain everything you just said to us to them. Be clear with how you got the number.

Also maybe make a note that this is a non-profit (assuming you are) and that money will be extremely tight going into next season. That if there are any parents who don't wish to receive a refund, the money will be put toward the league moving forward. I think a lot of parents would be OK with that.

We went to Dave and Busters on Christmas Eve for a birthday party.

Of the 8 people that went, 6 of us got sick as hell with what we thought was the flu. All of the Covid symptoms. The 2 grandparents, over 65 both had it worse than the rest of us. The 21 year old and 16 year old are the 2 who didn't get sick.

I was down for 6 days, my wife down for 10.

The other 2 adults that were there swear we all got it then. I doubt it but you never know I guess.

My 4th graders weekly writing assignment is

Do you prefer to stay home on the weekends or go out and do things around town. Write an essay to convince your parents to do whatever you prefer this weekend

solid troll job Ms. J. Well played.

Honestly, that would piss me off. I would write an email to her and cc the vice/principal and let your/my displeasure known.

Congrats, you are immune now. Go party !!

I imagine there will be a time where you can get tested for antibodies (maybe even now if they're using serum). If you find out you have them, that's probably a huge relief.

Utah Dem Ben McAdams hospitalized and on oxygen.

I saw McAdams on one of the news shows a couple days ago. He's only 45 and seemed in good health. One of the myths is that it only affects old people so that's one reason the Spring Breakers think they're immune.

I imagine there would actually be tremendous benefit. Volunteering, being able to work if you couldnt before, etc...

That's assuming catching it once means you can't catch it again. Not sure if that is established.

Agree though most of the scientests seem to think that is the case. Viral load would be a concern though I suppose like the healthy doctors who die from it.

Hahahahaha!!!

My guess is it was already part of whatever they would have been doing in class and no one thought to change it. I’m sure they were under tremendous pressure to get the packets out. My son and I actually had a nice moment of levity over it, which was good because this morning he had a full on melt down.

Wondering out loud as a hypochondriac myself... I wonder what the hospitalization numbers would look like if this were an unknown disease. For example 3 months ago I get a bad cold and what I think is bronchitis and unknowingly lug it out at home vs now if I get diagnosed with COVID19. Negliable number or significant?

I know we’re working on an antibodies test that apparently only takes 10 minutes for a result, which will do exactly that.

Will really expand our knowledge of the number and severity of cases: if lots of people have had it and didn’t realise, that’s good news...

Will it really do that though? Without enough PPE to go around, how do you safely administer such a test at the volume required?

Definitely. And it's hard to imagine that it was here in January at the latest, and didn't spread widely before we finally noticed a few weeks ago.

Though it's also been a bad regular flu season (23k dead in the U.S. thus far), which has probably complicated things. Maybe some of those deaths were COVID, I don't know how often flu is tested for in normal times, or if doctors just rely on symptoms.

{Can't believe I left off: "they're rapists."}

Just test all the health personnel and let the ones who've had it do the tests :p

In all seriousness, I would guess some of these could be self-administered.

Welp I don't have the flu. I went in because of fever and sore and swollen glands. Basically have throat infection and red swollen infected tonsils

Was neat how they have stations set up. I was shooed out of the main waiting room and told to go into a side door straight into the office where they had a hallway of 4 chairs spread out 6 feet apart each. I sat there until they came and asked questions. THen took me in a room and did all the stuff. They DID test me for flu but sticking the long swab up my nose on both sides (yeeeeeeeeesh)

Didn't have flu., Just inflamed infected tonsils and throat

I did ask if they were even able to test for coronavirus and she said no.

So how are there all these articles of people getting tested?

Oh yeah she said that the WHO offered a bunch of testing supplies back in January and trump turned them down

We are hoping we had it also. a couple weeks ago took the kids and a friends kid to the movies. A few days later friends kid gets sent home with 103 fever. Around the same time we all felt very lethargic and I had a nagging headache for about 10 days, which never happens. Really hoping we had it and it just didn't hit us hard, however unlikely.

my flu test took 10 minutes as well

Btw, the way you administer the Covid 19 test is basically the same as the flu test - a big long swab that goes in your nose and down your throat.

Seems like they are only testing the worst cases. Or if you have a lot of money you can get them too.

On our Disney cruise EO Feb my 6 yr old got sick, my dad got sick and my mom got sick the day we got off the cruise. No idea what they had but they had fevers and a mild cough each.

I think if people had it in February, we would have seen a surge in hospital much sooner.

I agree with this.

I really want to buy the whole "We've all had it for months, but we just thought it was flu/generic winter virus" thing. That would be so great. But it just does not accord with the increase in hospitalizations happening now and not then.

Yeah this, plus how our fatality/hospitalization numbers are following other countries models pretty closely. As little faith as I have in our health care system I find it hard to believe we have been missing double digit deaths per day. Seems like a lot of wishful thinking going around here.

BBC saying Rand Paul went to the government gym, had a bunch of meetings, etc while waiting for his test results.

If that’s true... :banghead:

for a week.

Influential hospitalaztion rates were up this flu season, well over double some years.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC

Plus in a vacuum, 100 deaths a day in the U.S. wouldn't be particularly noticeable except maybe in local areas that were hit hard. If we believe the reported numbers are it - this has a LONG way to go to be as close to as bad as a bad flu season (which had 61,000 dead in 2017-2018, for example v. 400 so far with Covid.). But the medical community seems to be on the same page that one of the devastating things about this particular virus is it's ability to spread from people with no or little symptoms unchecked.

And people did test positive for it January and February, though testing was very limited. It would be an amazing coincidence if the curve of the infection rate exactly followed the U.S's ability to test, which I thought we all agreed the country was way behind on. But if that was really it, then we need to do whatever we were doing in February to keep the count so low for 6 weeks following the arrival of the virus to the U.S.

Not necessarily. Needs 'critical mass' to really spread or happen to a bunch of people who are especially prone to close contact with lots of people. Plus it needs to spread in the older population specifically to be noticeable as those are displaying severs symptoms more regularly.

Anybody thinking they had it based on symptoms should really hold their horses, there is way too much overlap. They differ in profile if you look at % of patients having Symptom A, B or C., but still lots of overlap and different patients display different symptoms.

The one thing that is close to unique is shortness of breath (while resting), once you notice that you should get help ASAP.

@lathum : Headaches (and muscle aching etc) were actually much rarer so far in Corona Cases than the flu, same for fatigue. Maybe you usually have more a common cold rather than Influenza, which is why it was unusual to you.

The CDC data is at least encouraging. Seems to start downward trend on 3/11, which was before a lot of the more critical forced closing happened. If this trend will continue, and people will follow distancing we may avoid worst case scenarios.

Cases in U.S. | CDC

I don't think that graph has any worth. The footnote says this:


If you just take the number of cases and divide by the days they show case onset it should average almost 650, but their highest number is 331.

Every time Rand does something it makes me a little more sympathetic for his neighbor.

Which is btw half the number of deaths per capita than the Lombardy region has had already in about 3 weeks. 2/3 of those in the past week. Whereas a flu season is like 5 months with a 'peak' of 2 - 2.5 depending on circumstances.

US has 33 times as many inhabitants, 3500 deaths for lombardy x 33 = 115k

And without massive interference this would likely not have even been the 'peak' but merely the 'low season' to start things off. And they went from 50 deats to 250 to 600+ very suddenly.

Well it looks like my business is exempt from the shutdown so far.

I was kind of looking forward to a two week vacation.

Also interesting that the first reported U.S. case came 11 days before the first Italy case, and 1 day before the first South Korea case. If we weren't substantially impacted until March, than we inadvertently contained it amazingly well for a time. And maybe there are inherent advantages in the U.S. that slows the spread (more rural, fewer smokers, etc.)

I don't think thats how the math on this works.
The total number of all of the data here - the area under the curve - will total up to all of the cases in the country to date (minus the ones mentioned) - 4,038.
Why would it average 650? it would be 4038 / number of day data point, about 70. Which is around 58.

We’re on near lockdown - we should only leave home for essential work reasons (not entirely sure what that means, but I’m guessing visiting cricket clubs to assess sites for plastic pitches doesn’t qualify!), food/medicine shopping, caring for vulnerable people, and solo exercise only

Italy is thought to have had it much earlier as well ;) (based on lab analysis etc)

It seems that with a virus like that needs critical mass before being noticeable and then a while before tested cases go up (because you have more to go on to find them or simply because more and more show up). Which is likely why Lombardy is so hard hit, because it had the most early cases and then managed to spread there wildly before the measures got in place. Whereas the rest of italy had the protective measures in place just in time before there were too many infected.
The scary thing about Italy is they had only 7000 cases march 8th and a week later they started having 400 dead a day and going up from there.

I'm looking at the total number of US cases. That chart is missing so many cases that I don't trust that there's really a downslope to new cases over the past few days.

I guess the thing that would immediately make me not trust it is that the incubation period is said to be up to 14 days before symptoms are seen but they are only using a 1 week lag in "Illnesses that began during this time may not yet be reported" period. Seems like it should be longer.

The 14 days is a "possible" range, but most seem to be from 4-6 days. At which point the 1 week lag probably hits a vast majority of cases.

That's my wife's and my theory, and think it goes back before February.

I was down with something a few months ago. Sickest I've been in a long time. Felt like the flu. I didn't get tested or see a doctor, but I was considering urgent care at one point.

Also, the same thing went through my office. People out 3-10 days with a bug that everyone assumed was a bad strain of the flu. Heard other people were out with some bug that tests came back negative for the flu. Was that COVID-19? Who knows....

UK joins germany in pretty much forbidding all gatherings and shutting down all non-essential industries:

Coronavirus: Strict new curbs on life in UK announced by PM - BBC News

And Kemp continues to do nothing for Georgia. Shelter in place for "medically fragile". Its not like those people probably haven't already been doing that. Its going to be up to individual cities to do the it on their own. I'm sure Atlanta will be doing a shelter in place, but it needs to be all of Georgia.

Over the weekend people largely ignored the social distancing, which lead to stricter distancing restrictions, close to what you described, except that it's considered okay to walk outside with people from the same household, or with 1 other person. 3 or more will be considered a group and prohibited. Additionally, the large gatherings restrictions have been extended until June 1st. We'll have to see what changes will be made on April 6th about the grey area between small groups and large groups. It's a pity, but so be it.

Sample size and all, I fully expect the numbers (positive test, deaths, hospitalizations) to rise for at least another 2 weeks, purely based on the 14 days + 14 days math I've been using. I'm not buying the "results will be visible after 1 1/2 weeks of semi-lockdown" talk.

France now has people not going to work or a doctor timestamp a seperate permission slip and are then only allowed to leave the house once a day for an hour and within 1 Kilometer of their home.

What seems questionable is they did it based on high numbers today but those are partly leftover from the weekend (and tests take 1-2 days to process anyway) and since the original lockdown was put in place on the 17th it seems safe to assume a decent portion of those new cases got infected before the initial lockdown.

Tis true

Welp, it's fait accompli. He's going to release the hounds come April 1 and then 30 days later at most we'll have an overwhelming wave of death and destruction throughout the country. I hope I'm wrong but it isn't going to be manageable by the hospitals and doctors and nurses.

Why the rise in Infections goes up so fast: and why it can get out of hand if unchecked in an easily digestible 2 minute explanation:


Randi Mayem Singer on Twitter: "Don't spread the virus. Spread this video.
https://t.co/WYQcC2RiaN"


And in Spain soldiers today found multiple dead in a retirement home when disenfecting it. The same home has had 75 cases. Since the discussion came to prisons: This is the real threat as far as deaths goes.

I live just north of Toronto and an ambulance just took someone away 3 houses away from me. They put on the masks and plastic wraps before going in there, so it could have been COVID-19 related.

Scary as heck.

Why does it take a week to get a result? Especially for a sitting US Senator. In China and South Korea they get these results back in a couple hours (and have for months).

The tone of this conference is really sad and, yea, Fauci isn't there to contradict.

I can't watch them anymore

Had to get rid of the truther

I'm really curious, and more afraid now, of what happens next with the big shutdown orders having come from states, not from the federal government. That disconnect could be fatal - I don't believe words until they are backed up with action, but the signaling here is starting to push the panic buttons in my mind.

Yeah, when I don't see Fauci there I change the channel. BS or half-truths without Fauci.

#BREAKING Arizona man dies after self-medicating trying to prevent COVID-19. He and a woman ingested chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used to clean fish tanks. The woman is in critical condition. #12News https://t.co/y29rGmhjJY

— Bianca Buono (@BiancaBuono) March 23, 2020

You think states will enact more than close all businesses except essentials, pseduo stay-at-home/PAUSE (but you can still go out and exercise just as long as you stay 6ft away)?

The next step is no going outdoor unless its for groceries, medicine?

More insider trading!

New: House members and aides were also trading stock in the early days of coronavirus.

Rep. Susan Davis sold stock in Alaska Air and Royal Caribbean in mid-Feburary.

Aides invested in a leading vaccine manufacturer, Clorox, and more: https://t.co/iaeAQDPZyW w/@KatyODonnell_

— Maggie Severns (@MaggieSeverns) March 21, 2020

A little good news for Italy. Hope the trend continues.

New coronavirus cases drop in Italy for second day | TheHill

I think there's not much more they can do other than try to enforce the existing orders stronger than 'please do this'. I also think the mixed messages on this, the people starting to say just open everything and let the chips fall where they may is really dangerous, because by the time it is obvious to them it was the wrong move, it'll be way too late.

It's more the lack of national unity (and I'm not just saying politically here, but at every level) that is really a huge threat to our response. The fact that after four days we can't get together on the stimulus package is emblematic. Whose fault it is/who is wrong is kind of besides the point here. As this goes forward and the pain regardless of what we do or don't do increases, continuing to fraction, blame the wrong thing, etc. seems likely to continue.