thomkal left again??? really this is starting to get ridiculous guys. i can understand once, and i understand the value of leaving him for the bad guys to waste a kill on (assuming he is on one evil faction) but how heavily do we weigh that against getting a baddy ourselves and cutting their #'s down?

Yep, he read and ran again. Just does not make sense at all. He really should have been able to make the post right now. At this point, why would a good guy have to wait to post his seer results?

at this point with him providing information of questionable veracity and in a non-timely manner at that (and yes i understand the info can be reverse-used against him, but still)

I won't be voting for Thomkal today.

I want to hear what Lonestargirl and Thomkal found last night though.

I wish I could provide more information on my attacker last night, but needless to say sometimes when its in your nature to put your nose in other people's business they'll try to smack it off for you. My character is a fairly nosy sort so not an entire suprise that I was attacked.

Vote Ntndeacon

I guess I'll wait until tomorrow to see what LSG, Izulde, and Thomkal have to say. I am leaning towards Ntndeacon tomorrow, as well, but if someone I trust can provide a positive ID, I will be listening.

i anticipate having plenty of online time this afternoon to discuss and vote so i will hold off on a placeholder vote right now. i would think ntn or sublime would be people to focus in on though, as those were both on LSG's list, and ntn has been on everyone's radar for a couple days now.

There's a shock.


My hunch is that the wolves are going to make a big push to lynch thomkal today. Just a hunch which I have absolutely 0 knowledge pointing me to that belief.

I wouldn't be suprised though if that move is the focus of their day today.

I have a feeling the wolves will be quite happy to have those of us villiagers do there dirty work and off another on the side of light.

ntn just seems like he's parroting what other people have said earlier in the game, something I seem to recall from before somewhere in here. Right now, he's the only person left who I have any genuine suspicion on. The others are more wait and see for now.

VOTE NTNDEACON

No I did not run away. I was pissed that after that long weekend, the person I chose to view was killed. :( Yes I chose Dodgerchick. I mentioned her in the bunch of people Alan asked me about who I was thinking to view. I thought she was likely to survive the night of those I was suspicious of. So even if I had revealed right away you wouldn't have learned anything new. And since the people I trust are voting for him already and he's voting for me, I will.

vote ntndeacon

Aww dang :(

Good luck villagers.

Okay guys, I think the reason I wasn't killed last night is because the bad guys think I was guarded. So tonight will probably be my last night. As for who i viewed last night, it was BrianD. And needless to say he is an Agent of Saruman and one of those in darkness.

vote briand


And you researchers, when you look through brian's posts, you will find that he has voted for ntn at least 3 times....

Unvote ntndeacon
Vote BrianD

ok, I'll switch to Brian if he is a force of Saruman. However your comment about him voting for ntn at least 3 times, remember it was him who made sure to make a point to vote for ntn when everyone else was voting for spleen. He threw a vote on ntn for a few hours then moved it off as "proof" which I called him out for.

He definitly didn't vote for ntn the days when ntn's neck was on the line. So I don't really agree with his being good or bad means anything about ntn. In fact his "vote" for ntn the other day when it didn't matter at all did nothing but increase suspicion for me about ntn.

Also how do you know you were bodyguarded last night? I assumed since I didn't die when attacked that I was protected somehow by the bodyguard.

I am not saying ntn is good by any means, all i am saying is that there might be people who dont beleive im the real seer and stick with ntn... but they shouldn't.

And how convienent is it that thomkal scanned somebody that died? Dodgerchick wasn't no where near my suspicious list, in fact, she was in the top three of my COT

Alant, I said the reason i think i wasn't killed is because the bad guys THOUGHT i would be bodyguarded

I actually suggested yesterday that Thomkal scan Dodgerchick. I don't have a huge problem with the scan. I pushed Thomkal to either scan Dodgerchick or Tyrith and he did.


I don't understand how you know the bad guys thought you were bodyguarded though. How would you know this? I can think of many reasons why you are still alive today, none of which are for that reason.

Based on the reveal by LSG,

VOTE BRIAND

VOTE BRIAND

It's time we end this seer nonsense one way or another, and since I always trusted LSG more I'll take her word.

I would like to note that there is someone out there that can vouch for me now. It is much better for the team if it doesn't get laid out fully right now, but I'm no longer completely without support (finally!)

I would be interested in hearing more about this. Right now you are one of only 5 people left not being vouched for. I've found you fairly suspicious alot of the game, but obviously have my targets more fixed on ntndeacon than you. Perhaps today isn't the day for this, I'm not sure.. but having someone who can back you could probably keep you away from the lynch at least another day or three if credible.

LSG, why was DC third on your trust list and actually in your CoT? I do not believe that you scanned her and you listed her in the group with the two living people that you said you scanned? Also, you put that list out prior to DC being killed.

I would think you would have put her at the top of your reasonable trust list. Instead you posted it as if you KNEW she was could or was confirmed.

Just because Dodgerchick was in your COT does not mean she was in mine. She voted for me, and has been calling for my lynching for a long time. I think she was a perfectly acceptable person to view, especially since people like Alan thought she was suspicious too.

Since everybody is grilling me on who I viewed, how about you LSG? Why Brian? Why not me since you distrust me so much?

Fair warning: I will be in and out all day running errands and such forth. I'm getting a bit tired of people accusing me of hiding if I'm not here and such. I do have a life outside this game believe it or not, and can not be here at your beck and call 24/7.

No reason to get touchy Thomkal. People have been upset because you've been in the thread at times without giving the information that you know. It isn't that people expect you to be here 24/7, but when you are here people would like to know information that you are bringing to the table.

When you don't post specific information at times it makes people feel you are hiding something, or waiting for teammates to build or develop a story. I fully understand not wanting to be here every passing minute of the day, but when you are here you have to realize the #1 important thing people want to know from you every day is:

Who did you scan, what were the results of the scan, why did you choose that person.

They might have responses back to you depending on what you respond, but its just part of the game. Getting touchy or defensive about it isn't going to help anything unfortunatly.

I think the primary problem people have been having is that they've been seeing you viewing the thread and you haven't been immediately posting your scan results, which could come off as suspicious. Personally I don't have an opinion on it.

LSG is lying, she is the one that Attacked Alan.

I wasn't part of the little campfire last night, but I did hear the attack. As I rounded the corner to look at it, I saw LSG poised for another strike. Her eyes caught mine and she dropped the branch and ran off.

Are you sure of this story? Whether or not I believe LSG is the real seer, from what I do know of her behavior after hours I have a problem believing that she would resort to beating me over the head with a stick. My ex-wife might do that, but not LSG. I have a hunch she would be a bit more cereberal with her attacks if she was indeed bad.

I don't know. We have seen three types of attacks. One is the knife attack we have gotten most nights. Another was what seemed to be a more cereberal attack a few nights ago. The night before last, I think someone got smacked with a log from the fire. This last one matches pretty well will the branch from the tree attack. Maybe the cereberal attack can't be done every night, and these "attacks of opportunity" are the in-between attacks? All I can tell you is what I saw. The fact that she saw me see her means that she had to call me out to protect herself.

Okay, BrianD give us the full deal. What were you doing out at night to be able to see the attack?

Sorry Alan,

I just had to vent a little there. I realize people need to know information from me, but its not like I wait until five minutes before the lynch before giving it. If it wasn't for the migraine the other day, you would have had the reveal in the morning, just like you had it in the morning today. It can be of benefit to us if I wait to reveal the view, because it might get an evil caught in a lie.

I never did give my full name before because I thought it would unfairly prejudice the other players. My name is Bill Ferny. I am a farmer and worker of husbandry. In the books, Bill gave some information to Saruman's(?) men and sold the Fellowship a pony for way more than it was worth.

I worried that if I told my name, people would either think I was bad, or the dark teams might figure that I was convertable (which is still possible). As it is, I'm not a terribly friendly or social individual. I had no reason to be out any more meaningful that Alan's "taking a leak" reason. I think I was out just so I could witness the failed attack. To be clear, I don't have any abilities which require me to be outside (I don't have any abilities at all). Apparently this is just how to attack was to be discovered.

Sounds like you aren't a horrible person to take a gamble on losing then to see if LSG is telling the truth about you. Since we won't lose any important roles or anything.

Hrm. As I see it, we can't keep going with this stupid two seer game if we're going to ignore what they say. If we aren't going to listen to them, we might as well consider them as normal lynch targets. So I'm going to go with LSG, assume that Brian is playing desperate defense, and if he's good then we kill LSG tomorrow. The only viable alternative is to switch the order of the lynches, but that doesn't make any sense.

Well, I can understand AlanT's situation there as he was the target of the attack. That means he has to be involved. But you are saying that you have no special role, the GM just out of the grace of his heart let you witness an attack and identify the attacker. That is just too far out for a WW game. What are you not telling us?

Quite true. All I really am in a number in the number's game. If you have sufficient numbers without me, then go ahead and kill me. When I show up good, you'll know I wasn't lying about LSG.

Are you afraid one of them is going to say you are bad next? I have no problem keeping them both alive for a while.

Well lucky for us if you do turn up good, we can definitly lynch LSG tommorrow.

The great thing about this game though is even if you do turn up bad it doesn't confirm anyone's sides since one bad guy team can easily sell out the other to gain trust.

At some point, I would highly recomment Saruman or Sauron's forces to do just that. Tell us what you know about the other side to try to gain trust :)

As I am working the numbers...we are down to 14 players, right?

No, but if we're not going to listen to them why aren't we considering them as lynch targets? We need to either consider them as seers and use their information or we need to ignore the whole thing and actually start considering lynching them again. But we can't just let them sit around and babble and ignore it, or not do anything because we're paralyzed in fear of doing something wrong.

Wow Brian, that sounds like a pretty shaky defense to me. Before I switch my vote over, I'd still like to hear from LSG about why she chose Brian over me. But with that, I'm offline for a bit.

Vote Brian D
I do not think the first wolf that either seer has seen will turn out to be fake.

I thought thats what we are doing by voting BrianD today... where am I wrong on that?

It could be like RE where they need to attack with more than one person to guarantee success.

Not really, the GM puts us where we need to be. I wish there was more to me so I could give you an exciting story, but it just isn't the case. However the mechanics work, I was chosen to witness the failed attack. Apparently that is the danger to their non-cereberal attack.

I thought about that.. but then you mean to tell me they waited till night 5 to try to do a solo attack?

Question for the vets:

I know the bodyguard role allows you to prevent a player from being killed, but does the bodyguard see who was trying to make the kill?

Well if you are die and end up being good, I will take this opportunity to be the first to thank you for helping us get our first wolf tommorrow :)

I can understand that position Thom, I have been wondering why no one has viewed me either even with me telling folks that better searches are done elsewhere.

It differs from game to game. Some games they can, other games they don't get any information from it and other games they kill the attacker...

No way to know this game without someone coming out to say how it works.

Thanks, Alan.

We might need to also start thinking about the numbers and whether or not this is the beginning of the dark side end-game plan. If we've got 3 people on each dark team, and 3 Rangers, they will cancel each other out in terms of the overrun. There would be 5 villagers left. After I am killed, there will be 4 villagers. If the bad guys kill a Ranger tonight, that makes 4 bad guys to even out the 2 remaining Rangers, and 2 bad guys to equal the 4 villagers. That could be game. If the bad guys take out a Ranger and a villager, that should definitely be game. By killing me tonight, you will learn who is bad, but the game may already be over.

I'm going to cast a provisional vote for BrianD, not least because I was already a little worried about him, witness my vote "yesterday".

VOTE BrianD

I am willing to take that chance.

Fair enough. I'm sure whichever dark team gets the win will thank you for this move.

I've never been MVP before :)

I find it strange that you seem to be defending ntn quite a bit. You knew he was going to be the main lynch target today, but you scan Brian instead? Perhaps I'm reading too much into this, but it strikes me as odd.

I think she already knows what ntn is.

I think so too.

Has LSG posted the people she's scanned? I've looked for it, but I can't find it.

She scanned:

night 1: blade (dead)
night 2: me (good)
night 3: lathum (dead)
night 4: izulde (good)
night 5: briand (bad)

Thomkal scanned:

night 1: Jonathan Ezarik (good)
night 2: Mr.Wednesday (good)
night 3: Schmidty (good)
night 4: Grammaticus (good)
night 5: Dodgerchick (dead)

I'm still catching up, but do we know exactly what ability Izulde has?

I HAVE!!! MULTIPLE TIMES!!! :D :D :D

Though granted, my failures are just as spectacular

Not much discussion taking place right now, unfortunately. It looks like the momentum is heading towards Brian, so I'm going to go that way, since it will give us either him or LSG. I don't see why LSG would throw things, unless she really wants the heat of ntndeacon, but I haven't seen those two tied in this game yet.

I'm going to go ahead and vote because I'm not sure I'll be back in time tomorrow.

Vote Brian D.

From what I understand (and please someone correct me if I'm wrong), but Izulde can see what profession someone plays. Like you being the innkeeper. I don't think he gets info on what side, though.

The only thing I can think is this must be an end-game play. She/They must think that they will be able to kill a Ranger tonight and end the game. I don't know what else the play can be, but I've got a feeling that this game may be wrapped up by morning.

Why didn't you scan Thomkal? If this is answered somewhere, I missed it and apologize.

Maybe she did, but she can't let me live now that I've witnessed her crime.

Hmmm. So we haven't learned anything from LSG's scans. Especially since we found out about you and Izulde being good before she revealed and Blade and Lathum were already dead.

Here's how I see it: Brian is evil, but he's not in LSG's faction. This way she gets rid of an opponent and looks like she's the good seer, thus throwing more doubt on Thomkal.

Possible, but that would mean she *thinks* I'm evil and will be taking out an opponent.

In reality, I think she is only naming me because I saw her attack last night...and she saw me see her. If I'd been around here before she was this morning, we would be using my knowledge to lynch her. Since she got here first, she is controlling the story.

Well, I guess we'll find out tonight.

Vote BrianD

Disappointing, I thought I had played a pretty good game up until now. Who would have thought viewing a botched night-kill would do me in. Oh well, only an hour before class so I won't be able to attempt much more convincing.

Vote LoneStarGirl

You have played a pretty good game I think regardless of your affiliations. And if things are as you suggest, you have solved our two seer problem. Makng it an even better played game.

BrianD.... good story about me hitting alant. Too bad its a lie. I am of the light. Swaggs, you can test your skills on that sentence. I didn't scan Thomkal because I am afraid Anxiety put two seers on the light side and i didn't want to waste a night on him. Plus, if i came back saying thomkal is bad, how many of y'all would believe me? I know some people would say of course she says thomkal is bad so we can kill him and they will win, blah blah blah. I have had a feeling about BrianD for awhile, so i wanted to check my theory. and I was right. And I am not vouching for ntn by any means, if briand would have turned out good last night, i would have voted for ntn.

interesting development. still need to catch up, but i need to take the dog for a walk before reading this last page and voting.

Are you serious? You think Thomkal is good? Since when?

Ugh. You have been saying for the past few days that I'm evil LSG, trying to discredit everything I say, and now you think I'm on the light side? What changed? I've thought all along there was two of us on the light side which is why I never voted for you or scanned you. But now though...

Well I guess there's one way to find out for sure.

unvote ntndeacon
vote BrianD

2 seeers on the side of light? that'd be interesting, but it would make more sense than having an evil-seer, since evil already knows who is good (even if they don't know who is on the other evil faction).

See, I don't buy that. There have been so many people pushing for a lynch of NTN and you decide to ignore all of that and view me? No, you just decided to get rid of me because I saw your little secret. If you had done a better job killing Alan such that I couldn't see your failure, would you still be pointing at me or would you have "viewed" someone else?

A total of 25 players to start the game. Conventional wisdom or discussion from all, generally places 3 bad guys in each faction and 3 rangers. I realize those numbers are not hard and fast but they are basically the consensus of discussion to this point. How many neutral aligned players? We have already seen one in SnDvl. For the sake of argument, lets say none left.

9 villagers have been lost – side of light
1 non affiliated person has been lost - side of darkness
1 non affiliated and non aligned person lost – no side

That leaves 14 people left.

3 Sauron baddies
3 Saluman baddies
3 rangers
5 vanilla villagers

It takes two baddies to overcome a ranger so right now you potentially have all six baddies causing a draw against the rangers or even odds that would cause a bad guy win. That leaves an overage of 5 villagers. It takes 2 villagers to overcome a baddie. So it would take 3 more baddies to offset those villagers.

If we lynch BrianD and he is a vanilla villager as he says and a ranger is night killed, we still have odds of

6 baddies
2 rangers
4 villagers

It takes 4 baddies to offset the rangers and the 4 villager take the 2 remaining baddies. So no end game.

Of course there could be more or less baddies and rangers. Also the rules say if you are not a regular townie, it is not certain how many it takes to overwhelm. Since we have not uncovered anyone that was on the side of light and more than a townie, that leads me to believe someone else exists that might have a 1:1 overwhelm ratio to the bad guys. And of course there could be another non aligned role.

Basically, I don’t think this is end game just yet. May be a small chance, but likely not. If we lynch a villager and lose a ranger, then maybe the next lynch and night kill could generate an endgame. But, we are sure to get a baddie in either BrianD or LSG. If they are both good, then one of them screwed things up by lying.

I'm off to class and won't be back until after the lynch. For everyone on the side of Light, do you really think we can survive with our numbers after a villager lynch and possibly two more good-guy deaths tonight? We need a dark death now, and I have handed you one.

Gramm, your analysis is good, but remember that both bad groups appear to be able to make night kills. Add one more villager (or one more Ranger) kill to you analysis above and you've got a finished game with the Dark winning.

Also, in your analysis above, I think that is game over. The Rangers are overrun by the 4 baddies and the villagers are overrun by the other 2 baddies. You don't need a majority in that situation, just an even ratio.

VOTE BRIAND

trusting LSG here. interesting that LSG is told what faction the force of darkness is on too. the fact that she has come out ahead of time and identified him as an agent of saruman is additional information that she didn't need to give that lends credibility to her story, presumably it will be checkable when he is revealed upon death (although i don't remember for sure based on the rules and i'm not about to leave this post to check).

Should this be true it also gives me pause about ntndeacon as well, unless that's a tactic for trying to hide him...which i suppose we should consider.

I'll follow LSG's reveal, too. Other than that I have nothing to add. I had an ungodly busy weekend and I'm still exhausted from it.

UNVOTE NTNDEACON

VOTE BRIAND

How in the world do you say LSG outing BrianD says anything at all about ntndeacon?

no...i mean about briand voting for ntndeacon 3 times

Ok, so you blindly follow LSG's dropping that little info as a way to distance ntn once BrianD is bad and completely ignore my post about the setting when BrianD did vote for ntn making the votes completely not matter other than vote placement.

Got it, just as long as I understand whats being sold here before people try to buy it. :)

Can you show me the three places where BrianD placed a meaningful vote for ntndeacon in a situation it could likely get him lynched?

nope. i must have missed that post of yours. i didn't realize all brian's votes for ntn were meaningless. and i just said it would raise questions, and i did say in my post "unless it was just a way of trying to hide ntndeacon down the road"

sides, i wasn't saying this clears ntndeacon. just saying it kinda...brought him back into relevence or whatever you want to call it. shined the light back in his direction

dola

assuming brian is evil and lsg is cleared more by virtue of that i think the light definately swings back in that direction. although all bets are off if lsg has been playing us all for fools (which i don't believe)

Well I'll make it easy for you. LSG lied about BrianD voting for ntn at least 3 times. He only voted for him 1 time, on a day when no one else was going to vote for him, and only had his vote on him for 40 min before he moved it off. He only mentioned ntn one other time on the day when it was ntn vs Izulde and pretty much everyone on the untrusted list voted for izulde and none of them voted for ntn.

This is his response on a day where a vote for ntn could have lynched him before the end switch to Thomkal and all of the chaos that ensued.


Then the next day, I came back out going for ntndeacon, when swaggs pushed everyone to spleen. At the point BrianD voted for ntndeacon here, it was very clear no one else would be voting for ntndeacon, as all of those voters were on Spleen. ntndeacon was not in danger of being lynched this day and in fact there might not have been any other votes on him here. Basically a throw away vote.


Then 40 minutes later he moves his vote off of ntndeacon, thus "proving" his point of how willing he is to lynch ntndeacon


And this is his response when I called him out on it.


For you and LSG to blindly say that BrianD being bad makes ntndeacon good, or even to suggest it is downright incorrect.

I still want to know how any of today's events shed any light or push the lynch away from ntndeacon in any sort of way.

Once again tommorrow, my sights will be to lynch ntndeacon unless I am convinced otherwise.

ok. thanks alan. you're much better at the whole "digging back into past posts" thing than i am. my patience for it wears thin pretty quickly.

aside (TOTALLY NOT GAME RELATED): have you checked out that "Encyclopedia of Arda" that i mentioned to you?

that's what i was saying. it shines the light back on him. i'm down with putting him up for a vote tomorrow, although i don't know why sublime or mr. weds aren't drawing anymore attention?