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BYU 14 02-01-2020 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263522)
I know this is to keep/appease his political base and applaud his creativeness in straddling the fence.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/polit...ial/index.html


Cowards have no creativity, they are weak and do what they need to do to survive over what is right.

PilotMan 02-01-2020 07:23 PM

I guess Lincoln was wrong this whole time. I mean, that's what Rubio was saying. That the damage to the country wasn't worthy of doing what is right. So much for the legacy of that Lincoln guy.

Brian Swartz 02-01-2020 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack
Cowardly sniveling little weasel who's more concerned about pissing off his base than about the damage he's inflicting on the rule of law in the name of getting re-elected.


That's an ironic statement by somebody who was against the House impeaching Trump because it could help the president in this next election.

Regarding what Rubio said: yeah, it's not possible for me to disagree more stringently with anything. Congratulations Marco, it's because of people like you that I'm leaning more and more strongly towards voting Democrat for the first time in my adult life.

SackAttack 02-02-2020 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3263549)
That's an ironic statement by somebody who was against the House impeaching Trump because it could help the president in this next election.


No, I saw no point in impeaching Trump because what we just witnessed is always what was going to happen. What was the upside? A bunch of moderate Republicans would clutch their pearls and vote for Democrats after seeing the gymnastics Senate Republicans went to to excuse Dear Leader?

That's like ROUS. At this point, I don't believe they exist.

As I've said elsewhere, I'm supposed to believe there exists a subset of Republicans who were okay with the last eleven years of Moscow Mitch's behavior in the Senate; who were okay with Merrick Garland not even getting a hearing while Brett Kavanaugh got jammed through after credible rape accusations were dismissed with a dog-and-pony investigation that didn't investigate SHIT; and who were okay with a trillion dollar giveaway to corporations at the same time as the GOP has been trying to burn out every last vestige of the social safety net, but this, THIS was the bridge too far?

Horseshit.

Even the "This Is Fine" dog would have bailed on that tire fire by now.

Brian Swartz 02-02-2020 04:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack
I'm yelling at him for insisting that Democrats HAVE to impeach Trump despite the fact that the only reason to do it is public masturbation.


This is what you said. The damage inflicted on the rule of law wasn't enough for you to support Trump being impeached, in fact it wasn't even a factor at all, but now you're taking Rubio to task because he's unwilling to inflict said damage. If the rule of law matters enough to impeach Trump, it matters whether it's a Republican, Democrat, or a canary we are criticizing at the moment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack
The Democrats' ability to put any kind of leash on Trump in the event of his re-election is dependent on their keeping control of the House, or flipping the Senate.


You later said impeaching Trump was potentially poisonous to this ability. I'm perfectly willing to disregard that argument if you no longer believe it - but it is what you said (wrote).

By the way, I'm one of those people you don't believe exist. I wouldn't have voted Democrat if they didn't impeach Trump; now I probably will. Polls indicate that most independents wanted witnesses and didn't get them. Half of the public wanted Trump impeached. The number of persuadable people based on these facts is non-zero. It's probably not a huge number, but it doesn't need to be in these polarized days. If it boosts or suppresses turnout on either side by a fraction of a percent, that can make a difference.

SackAttack 02-02-2020 04:56 AM

1) The rule of law matters. But performative obeisance doesn't actually protect the rule of law. And this is always what was going to happen.

Thus, the only reason to impeach Trump was, and is, public masturbation. "WE DID THE THING NOW PAT US ON THE BACK."

That doesn't mean I didn't support his impeachment, or that I didn't believe he should be removed from office. But absent a mass revolt against the GOP - and make no mistake, when the GOP says "meh, it's okay if the President solicits foreign interference in our elections as long as it's OUR guy," then "mass" is what you need to overcome that interference - what's the outcome? Trump has been "exonerated" (no he hasn't, but that's what he and his sycophants will scream) and he's now, essentially, unleashed. What can he do, going forward, that will both prompt the House to impeach him a second time AND get Senate Republicans to say "okay, fuck this shit"?

To the extent that impeachment ever had a hope of a positive outcome in this environment, it was the threat of impeachment. As long as that was on the table, there were at least some lines Trump might not cross.

What are they now? What behavior do you see coming from Trump in the next seven months - or beyond, if he loses re-election - that will be supportive to the rule of law?

The rule of law matters, but if the Senate ignores it and the Chief Fucking Justice can't be bothered to act in its defense because doing so might seem overly political, then what good has the House's performative obeisance to it done? How has the rule of law been served?

2) Unless there's a more explicit bit that you left out, what I wrote in your second snippet is not that impeaching Trump was poisonous to their ability to keep the House or flip the Senate.

What I said was that their ability to leash him was dependent on that ability. That doesn't mean "impeachment = they lose." It DOES mean that performative impeachment distracts from whatever messaging they might have brought to the public. This is, for better or worse, going to dominate the discourse for the next nine months. Additional shoes are going to fall and the media is going to keep coming back to the impeachment trial as things like Bolton's book come out to support those original charges, and trying to talk about Democratic priorities is going to be like shouting into a hurricane.

Trump loves the SHIT out of this. It makes him the center of attention for the next nine months, and makes it much harder for Democrats to seize the narrative, whether it's the eventual Democratic Presidential nominee, or Congressional Democratic leadership making the case for a Democratic Congress.

And, I mean, maybe public anger really IS festering here and all the Twitterpeeps declaring "I'm a Republican but never again" is going to destroy the GOP this fall. I'd love to see it!

But from where I'm sitting right now, we just went through some kabuki theater where the outcome was telegraphed for months, despite a couple wishy-washy Republicans angsting publicly over whether they should vote to hear from witnesses before saying "well, you know, his conduct warranted removal but that doesn't mean we should have REMOVED him."

This is always what was going to happen, and the outcome has been to make the next nine months about Trump, and not about who might replace him. The rule of law lost this week, and the rule of law will take a red-hot poker up the ass if he wins re-election. And allowing him to have the spotlight to himself for the next nine months is playing right into his hands on that front.

Edward64 02-02-2020 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack (Post 3263612)
No, I saw no point in impeaching Trump because what we just witnessed is always what was going to happen. What was the upside? A bunch of moderate Republicans would clutch their pearls and vote for Democrats after seeing the gymnastics Senate Republicans went to to excuse Dear Leader?


I'm going to guess this is what Rubio was thinking about impeachment. What is the upside if it wasn't going to happen anyway.

And always wanting to weigh both sides, would you also be as accusatory for the Dems that voted against impeachment during Clinton's trial?

Edward64 02-02-2020 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack (Post 3263614)
To the extent that impeachment ever had a hope of a positive outcome in this environment, it was the threat of impeachment. As long as that was on the table, there were at least some lines Trump might not cross.

What are they now? What behavior do you see coming from Trump in the next seven months - or beyond, if he loses re-election - that will be supportive to the rule of law?


Your assumption that a threat of impeachment would have somewhat constrained Trump is questionable. Arguably, for the House to not impeach Trump would have emboldened him even more. I think the threat of a 2-time impeachment club is just as persuasive.

I supported the impeachment process because it was the right thing to do. It also puts our politicians on record which is good.

Its all out there now (calling on Bolton as additional witness for Ukraine is really pointless) and if Trump gets re-elected even with this impeachment, the Dems/Libs will need to take a good hard look in the mirror and assess whether they really are in tuned with the priorities and sentiments of the country as a whole (e.g. not just liberal enclaves in the NE and West).

Edward64 02-02-2020 09:56 AM

I think Alexander's answer is better than Rubio's, it gives him more wiggle room to play with. House proved their case but in his opinion it does not rise to level of impeachment.

Why 4 key Republicans split — and the witness vote tanked - POLITICO
Quote:

When Lamar Alexander and Lisa Murkowski met privately in his third-floor Capitol hideaway on Thursday night, Alexander broke the news: He was going to vote against bringing in new witnesses in President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.

The Tennessee Republican explained the rationale to his Alaska colleague: That the House managers had proven their case against the president but that it still wasn’t impeachable conduct and therefore more information was unnecessary, according to a person familiar with the exchange. But Alexander did not lobby Murkowski to join him.

Lathum 02-02-2020 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263617)
I'm going to guess this is what Rubio was thinking about impeachment. What is the upside if it wasn't going to happen anyway.

And always wanting to weigh both sides, would you also be as accusatory for the Dems that voted against impeachment during Clinton's trial?


Comparing Clinton’s impeachment to trumps is like comparing me smashing someone’s mailbox to murdering everyone in the house.

Edward64 02-02-2020 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3263622)
Comparing Clinton’s impeachment to trumps is like comparing me smashing someone’s mailbox to murdering everyone in the house.


Using the Presidency to go after a political rival is pretty serious. So is lying under oath.

JPhillips 02-02-2020 03:40 PM

Sen Ernst said today that if Biden wins they will immediately start impeachment hearings.

So much for will of the voters, too partisan, blah blah blah.

Thomkal 02-02-2020 04:02 PM

Good thing Sen Ernst is going to lose then

larrymcg421 02-02-2020 04:11 PM

Don't forget. We will be required to have the same opinion on this theoretical Biden impeachment that we did on the Trump and Clinton impeachments. If not, we are hypocrites.

All impeachments are the same. Everything both sides do is the same.

JPhillips 02-02-2020 04:25 PM

It won't happen, as there's almost no chance of Biden winning and the GOP flipping the House, but it's another in a long line of examples that the GOP makes almost no arguments in good faith.

Edward64 02-02-2020 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3263656)
Don't forget. We will be required to have the same opinion on this theoretical Biden impeachment that we did on the Trump and Clinton impeachments. If not, we are hypocrites.

All impeachments are the same. Everything both sides do is the same.


Eh, the acknowledgement doesn't need to be as frequent but a once-a-while acknowledgement that some Dems/Libs failed in doing what's right when it was their time to rise up would be nice. Otherwise this forum would turn into an echo chamber of circle jerking ... oh, wait ...

PilotMan 02-02-2020 05:02 PM

Rubio's defense, and franky the entire new GOP stance of "Let the people decide" has made the single greatest argument to get rid of congress, the EC and go to a direct vote, democracy. That is what they are selling isn't it? Oh wait, it's what they are selling as long as it's what the GOP are willing to give. Otherwise, we can't do anything that might be out of the best interest of the 41% that support, back and that they now represent.

JPhillips 02-02-2020 09:30 PM

lol

Trump congratulates the Chiefs and the state of Kansas.

spleen1015 02-02-2020 09:32 PM


Atocep 02-02-2020 09:40 PM

I imagine someone just logged into his twitter account and fixed it rather than tell him he's wrong.

Flasch186 02-03-2020 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263662)
Eh, the acknowledgement doesn't need to be as frequent but a once-a-while acknowledgement that some Dems/Libs failed in doing what's right when it was their time to rise up would be nice. Otherwise this forum would turn into an echo chamber of circle jerking ... oh, wait ...


Fast and Furious was an unmitigated disaster. The Syrian Red line was a horrible play of the cards. Inability to work better trade dealings was pretty terrible.

So yeah, there's that. Now can someone please tell the GOP that their moral fucking high ground is over.

larrymcg421 02-03-2020 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263662)
Eh, the acknowledgement doesn't need to be as frequent but a once-a-while acknowledgement that some Dems/Libs failed in doing what's right when it was their time to rise up would be nice. Otherwise this forum would turn into an echo chamber of circle jerking ... oh, wait ...


An argument that Dems on this board should criticize Dem policies is a different argument than that the same exact opinion is required on both the Clinton and Trump impeachments. The latter is a ridiculously stupid argument with no merit whatsoever.

I get tired of these both sides arguments because they don't have anything to do with the issues at play. Even if you thought Sack was completely disengenuous with his criticism of Rubio, that's not a defense of Rubio. You've done nothing to prove Sack's statement wrong. You've accomplished nothing at all except attack the personal motives of the person making the argument, which is a classic fallacious argument.

Edward64 02-03-2020 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flasch186 (Post 3263750)
Fast and Furious was an unmitigated disaster. The Syrian Red line was a horrible play of the cards. Inability to work better trade dealings was pretty terrible.

So yeah, there's that. Now can someone please tell the GOP that their moral fucking high ground is over.


Thanks. How about lack of significant immigration reform when the Dems had an opportunity to put it front and center; deficit also increased considerably when Dems had Presidency, House and/or Senate; and aligning with frenemies occurred under their watch too; failure to vote to impeach Clinton by some Dems to do what was right? (those come to mind, I'm sure there are additional)

With that all said, I can easily concede more "blame" should go to GOP on these issues (but not all as it is often portrayed in this forum). Let's say 70-30 or 60-40.

Yes, there is no doubt the GOP moral high-ground sucks quite a bit with their support of Trump.

JPhillips 02-03-2020 09:14 AM

Deficit really ain't the field you should play on.

Edward64 02-03-2020 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3263752)
An argument that Dems on this board should criticize Dem policies is a different argument than that the same exact opinion is required on both the Clinton and Trump impeachments. The latter is a ridiculously stupid argument with no merit whatsoever.


Exact is a strong statement and I am not asking for that (see post above on my concession that GOP has to shoulder significant amount of the "blame" but not all).

Quote:

I get tired of these both sides arguments because they don't have anything to do with the issues at play. Even if you thought Sack was completely disengenuous with his criticism of Rubio, that's not a defense of Rubio. You've done nothing to prove Sack's statement wrong. You've accomplished nothing at all except attack the personal motives of the person making the argument, which is a classic fallacious argument.

My intent was not to "prove" Sack's statement wrong and don't think Sack was disingenuous. I just think there is too much GOP is to be blamed for all/most things and I want to "accomplish something" by bringing awareness & some balance to these discussions.

Edward64 02-03-2020 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263755)
Deficit really ain't the field you should play on.


Really?

cartman 02-03-2020 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263758)
Really?


yes, really

PolitiFact | A service of the Tampa Bay Times

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263754)
deficit also increased considerably when Dems had Presidency, House and/or Senate;


This is simply quite false.

albionmoonlight 02-03-2020 09:38 AM

One can argue that one prefers the things that the GOP politicians prefer and therefore prefers what the GOP spends money on compared to the Dems. And that is a defensible position. I don't agree with it, but it makes sense.

But if one is sincerely and honestly concerned about the deficit as the deficit, then one should never ever ever ever ever vote for a GOP politician.

That the question is even debatable at this point is proof of how good the GOP is at politics and messaging and how piss poor the Dems are at it.

Edward64 02-03-2020 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3263759)


I see. Let me correct and say the "accumulated budget deficits" = increased debt by Presidency.

US Debt by President: By Dollar and Percentage

A wiki link comparing "accumulated budget deficits" (e.g. debt) by Presidency and % of GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...es_public_debt

cartman 02-03-2020 09:53 AM

The rate of the accumulated debt is directly driven by the size of a deficit, no? Meaning it accumulates at a slower rate with lower deficit vs. higher deficit, unless there is some new math algorithm I'm missing.

What you seem to be saying is this:

Group A creates $100k in debt
Group B then creates $400k more in debt
Group A comes in and creates $50k more in debt

Geez, group A sure are irresponsible spenders. They made the debt $550k

Edward64 02-03-2020 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3263763)
The rate of the accumulated debt is directly driven by the size of a deficit, no? Meaning it accumulates at a slower rate with lower deficit vs. higher deficit, unless there is some new math algorithm I'm missing


I'm not sure I understand. The articles are by Presidential term? Are we talking about rate of increase or about total accumulated deficits = total debt by Presidency?

JPhillips 02-03-2020 09:59 AM

The national debt is a function of an annual budget deficit, but they aren't the same thing.

Since Reagan, the pattern has been clear, the GOP increases the yearly budget deficit and then the Dem lowers it. That works for Reagan to Clinton, Bush2 to Obama, and almost certainly for Trump to whoever comes next.

But wait, there's more! This isn't accidental. The GOP has embraced a theory that the welfare state can only be dismantled through a budget crisis. The goal is a government that can be drowned in a bathtub, and the way to do that is tax cut driven budget deficits that cause "crises" for Democratic presidents.

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263765)
The national debt is a function of an annual budget deficit, but they aren't the same thing.

Since Reagan, the pattern has been clear, the GOP increases the yearly budget deficit and then the Dem lowers it. That works for Reagan to Clinton, Bush2 to Obama, and almost certainly for Trump to whoever comes next.

But wait, there's more! This isn't accidental. The GOP has embraced a theory that the welfare state can only be dismantled through a budget crisis. The goal is a government that can be drowned in a bathtub, and the way to do that is tax cut driven budget deficits that cause "crises" for Democratic presidents.


Or there's always the "TAXCUTS WILL PAY FOR THEMSELVES" line that the GOP keeps trying to sell us.

Edward64 02-03-2020 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263765)
The national debt is a function of an annual budget deficit, but they aren't the same thing.


Pretty much the same in this context. Your link was by end of Presidential term, annual deficit had increased/decreased. My links are by end of Presidential term, here is the accumulated deficit = total accumulated debt.

Is annual deficit at a point-in-time what we want to talk about or is it total accumulated deficit by Presidential term? I contend the latter is a better analysis for this discussion.

Quote:

Since Reagan, the pattern has been clear, the GOP increases the yearly budget deficit and then the Dem lowers it. That works for Reagan to Clinton, Bush2 to Obama, and almost certainly for Trump to whoever comes next.


Can't paste the table but look at the wiki link, midway down "Gross Federal Debt" section. There is a table that tells you in raw $ and % of GDP how the "total accumulated deficits" have grown by Presidential term.

Obama comes out ahead on raw $ and second to GWB on % of GDP in total accumulated deficits. The chart only goes to Obama's first term and does not have Trump's stats so the $ & % are not entirely accurate but its significant enough ... so let's not say the Dems didn't increase the total accumulated deficits significantly.

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263771)
Is annual deficit at a point-in-time what we want to talk about or is it total accumulated deficit by Presidential term? I contend the latter is a better analysis for this discussion.


I disagree whole-heartedly. With the former it's easier to determine whether or not the president left the deficit better or worse than when he founded it. With the latter you add in a factor beyond the incumbent's control.

Take Obama for instance. Is it his fault that Bush left him a 1.2 trillion dollar deficit? I don't think so but with your preferred metric Obama takes the blame. I applaud the fact that the deficit under Obama was cut in half even though I wish he had gone further.

Edward64 02-03-2020 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263773)
I disagree whole-heartedly. With the former it's easier to determine whether or not the president left the deficit better or worse than when he founded it. With the latter you add in a factor beyond the incumbent's control.

Take Obama for instance. Is it his fault that Bush left him a 1.2 trillion dollar deficit? I don't think so but with your preferred metric Obama takes the blame. I applaud the fact that the deficit under Obama was cut in half even though I wish he had gone further.


Maybe the confusion is my wording. My links are not talking about total accumulated deficit life-to-date, it is talking about total accumulated deficit by Presidential term. Hence, it does not factor in what GWB left Obama to start of with. Here's the raw nos from my wiki link.

During GWB term 1

The change in accumulated deficit (or total debt) during his presidency - $2,135B or 7.1% of GDP

During GWB term 2

The change in accumulated deficit (or total debt) during his presidency -
$3,971 or 20.7% of GDP

During Obama term 1

The change in accumulated deficit (or total debt) during his presidency term 1 $6,061 or 18.5% of GDP


So if you add up all the GOP and Dem presidents, did the GOP presidents increase the accumulated deficit the most? Yes. Did the Dem presidents also increase the accumulated deficit significantly? Yes.

Edward64 02-03-2020 11:17 AM

The other thebalance link breaks it down each year by President.

Donald Trump: Trump plans to add $5.088 trillion to the debt in his first term.8 That's a 25% increase from the $20.245 trillion debt at the end of Obama's last budget for FY 2017. If he remains in office for a second term, he plans to add $9.1 trillion for both terms. Trump had promised to eliminate the debt during his campaign.

FY 2021 - $1.276 trillion
FY 2020 - $1.281 trillion
FY 2019 - $1.260 trillion
FY 2018 - $1.271 trillion

Barack Obama: Added $8.588 trillion, a 74% increase from the $11.657 trillion debt at the end of Bush’s last budget, FY 2009.

FY 2017 - $671 billion
FY 2016 - $1.423 trillion
FY 2015 - $327 billion
FY 2014 - $1.086 trillion
FY 2013 - $672 billion
FY 2012 - $1.276 trillion
FY 2011 - $1.229 trillion
FY 2010 - $1.652 trillion
FY 2009 - $253 billion. Congress passed the Economic Stimulus Act, which spent $253 billion in FY 2009.9 This rare occurrence should be added to President Obama's contribution to the debt.

George W. Bush: Added $5.849 trillion, a 101% increase from the $5.8 trillion debt at the end of Clinton's last budget, FY 2001.

FY 2009 - $1.632 trillion. This was Bush's deficit without the impact of the Economic Stimulus Act.
FY 2008 - $1.017 trillion
FY 2007 - $501 billion
FY 2006 - $574 billion
FY 2005 - $554 billion
FY 2004 - $596 billion
FY 2003 - $555 billion
FY 2002 - $421 billion

PilotMan 02-03-2020 11:28 AM

I really think you guys are missing a big part of the entire debt/deficit argument, and that is current economic situation and which parties are in control of the Exec v. Legislative.


Those are very big pieces of this puzzle that complicate the simple argument that D's are better. A complicit legislative or exec is the biggest driver of debt and deficit, at least, the biggest impact on whether or not it explodes. Then you have to layer the quality of the economy behind it.



In the Clinton years, you had opposition legislative that somewhat forced the president to reign in certain elements of spending in a boom economy.



Compare that with trump, and his ass kissing legislature who allowed him to create a plan that runs 1 trillion in the red every year.



I imagine if Clinton could have gotten the same thing, he'd have run with it like crazy.



Bush 2 doesn't nearly get the credit he deserves for bankrupting the economy by the end of his term. He was forced to pass the budget that Obama had to take credit for in '09 that resulted in a trillion plus deficit as the economy tanked, yet Obama get's called a big spender. He needed to spend that anyway, or the economy would have tanked to a 2 trillion deficit.



Obama gets credit for closing that gap, but a lot of that was due to the R's shoving everything up his ass and keeping anything from getting done. So yes, his numbers look good, but he still didn't do what he wanted to do either.


This is a much more nuanced argument than the simple numbers game would show.

PilotMan 02-03-2020 11:43 AM

And Edward's argument that the D's didn't do anything about immigration is half bs. Since the 80's it's been the R's that didn't do anything. They knew that businesses needed that labor. Those big corps are their supporters. They easily could have worked to stem the tide by hammering punishments on businesses (like they should) for employing them illegally (and outside the system), but they had no stomach for that. Both sides could have changed the approach, but money talks. Both sides get money. Blame those outside forces as much as anything else.

Edward64 02-03-2020 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3263777)
I really think you guys are missing a big part of the entire debt/deficit argument, and that is current economic situation and which parties are in control of the Exec v. Legislative.

Those are very big pieces of this puzzle that complicate the simple argument that D's are better. A complicit legislative or exec is the biggest driver of debt and deficit, at least, the biggest impact on whether or not it explodes. Then you have to layer the quality of the economy behind it.
:
:
This is a much more nuanced argument than the simple numbers game would show.


I agree. The President doesn't get all the credit or blame but does get some. We do have to level set and agree on some factors and it doesn't seem that we even agree on the baseline accumulated deficit nos.

JPhillips 02-03-2020 12:07 PM

Quote:

FY 2016 - $1.423 trillion
FY 2015 - $327 billion
FY 2014 - $1.086 trillion
FY 2013 - $672 billion
FY 2012 - $1.276 trillion

I don't understand what was going on here. The yearly deficit was:

2012 1087
2013 679
2014 485
2015 438
2016 585

What drives the great discrepancy between these two sets of numbers?

Edward64 02-03-2020 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3263778)
And Edward's argument that the D's didn't do anything about immigration is half bs. Since the 80's it's been the R's that didn't do anything. They knew that businesses needed that labor. Those big corps are their supporters. They easily could have worked to stem the tide by hammering punishments on businesses (like they should) for employing them illegally (and outside the system), but they had no stomach for that. Both sides could have changed the approach, but money talks. Both sides get money. Blame those outside forces as much as anything else.


I can see why you think what you think about my position. However, my position is not that the Dems didn't do anything about immigration. My point is its not all the GOP fault like many posts here seem to say. What did the Dems do during Obama's first 2 years when they had the Presidency and both houses?

If we want to allocate blame since 2000's, yeah I'll concede the GOP is more at fault.

PilotMan 02-03-2020 12:14 PM

What about blame since the 80's? I'd give the GOP credit for that one more than anything.

Edward64 02-03-2020 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3263784)
What about blame since the 80's? I'd give the GOP credit for that one more than anything.


From Reagan to Clinton -- arguably, I think the GOP party did more than the Dems.

Reagan gets a lot of credit for his reforms. His amesty would seem to trump (!) all the other reform packages.

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 - Wikipedia
Quote:

The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA or the Simpson–Mazzoli Act) was passed by the 99th United States Congress and signed into law by President Ronald Reagan on November 6, 1986.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act altered U.S. immigration law, making it illegal to knowingly hire illegal immigrants and establishing financial and other penalties for companies that employed illegal immigrants. The act also legalized most illegal immigrants who had arrived in the country prior to January 1, 1982. Despite the passage of the act, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States rose from 5 million in 1986 to an estimated 15 million or more in 2020.[citation needed]


Clinton also had a reform package. But IMO it wasn't near as extensive or favorable to illegals south of the border.

Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 - Wikipedia

spleen1015 02-03-2020 12:24 PM

Too much blaming going on.

Your guy is the president now. He needs to fix shit.

They all do.

JPhillips 02-03-2020 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263783)
I can see why you think what you think about my position. However, my position is not that the Dems didn't do anything about immigration. My point is its not all the GOP fault like many posts here seem to say. What did the Dems do during Obama's first 2 years when they had the Presidency and both houses?

If we want to allocate blame since 2000's, yeah I'll concede the GOP is more at fault.


Obama's biggest mistake was trying to work with the GOP to make things bipartisan. They planned from the beginning to resist everything he proposed, so the limited time they had, look at how long it took to seat Franken, was taken up with other priorities.

And that still doesn't change the fact the impediment to immigration reform since Bush2 has been the desire by too many GOPers to restrict legal as well as illegal immigration, especially when it concerns non-Europeans. There have always been plenty of votes, probably enough to pass a bill, but the hardliners in the GOP won't even let it be debated.

Edward64 02-03-2020 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 3263786)
Too much blaming going on.

Your guy is the president now. He needs to fix shit.

They all do.


Not my President.

I agree, Presidents and Congress needs to fix shit.

Unfortunately, when it comes to annual accumulated deficit, they all fall short.

Edward64 02-03-2020 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263782)
I don't understand what was going on here. The yearly deficit was:

2012 1087
2013 679
2014 485
2015 438
2016 585

What drives the great discrepancy between these two sets of numbers?


You are right. thebalance nos look off and will concede the Obama's total accumulated deficit was not as much as what was document in thebalance (but think the wiki is correct).

See below for a graphical representation from Rachel Maddow site. I hope this is sufficient to show there is plenty of blame to spread around (PM caveats nothwithstanding however they are valid).

Despite his promises, Trump pushes deficit past $1 trillion mark | MSNBC


NobodyHere 02-03-2020 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263793)
You are right. thebalance nos look off and will concede the Obama's total accumulated deficit was not as much as what was document in thebalance (but think the wiki is correct).

See below for a graphical representation from Rachel Maddow site. I hope this is sufficient to show there is plenty of blame to spread around (PM caveats nothwithstanding however they are valid).

Despite his promises, Trump pushes deficit past $1 trillion mark | MSNBC



I still see deficits decreasing under Democratic presidents and increasing under Republican ones. Given that I think the blame should be thrown at mostly one party.

Edward64 02-03-2020 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263795)
I still see deficits decreasing under Democratic presidents and increasing under Republican ones. Given that I think the blame should be thrown at mostly one party.


Yes, I agree and conceded this in the above post. It would be nice to see this represented as a % of GDP, I think it is a more fair comparison vs raw $.
Quote:

So if you add up all the GOP and Dem presidents, did the GOP presidents increase the accumulated deficit the most? Yes. Did the Dem presidents also increase the accumulated deficit significantly? Yes.

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263796)
Yes, I agree and conceded this in the above post. It would be nice to see this represented as a % of GDP, I think it is a more fair comparison vs raw $.


https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

It doesn't really change the discussion

ETA: By which I mean the percentages go up under GOP presidents and down during Democratic presidents.

Edward64 02-03-2020 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263799)
https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

It doesn't really change the discussion


Let me make sure I understand you.

You think rate of change in the annual deficit is a better measure than total deficits for a President?

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263800)
Let me make sure I understand you.

You think rate of change in the annual deficit is a better measure than total deficits for a President?


Yup, it shows direction. If the president left the yearly deficit lower than when he entered office I consider that positive change and vice versa.

A president can't control where he starts from which is why I don't like the total deficits metric.

JPhillips 02-03-2020 02:36 PM

And external factors matter. The Great Recession demanded increased federal spending.

In that sense, Trump has been the worst, by far. He's run up trillion dollar plus deficits with a good economy for all four years.

JediKooter 02-03-2020 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263807)
And external factors matter. The Great Recession demanded increased federal spending.

In that sense, Trump has been the worst, by far. He's run up trillion dollar plus deficits with a good economy for all four years.


Exactly! He has pretty much done exactly the opposite of what you are supposed to do when the economy is good. It's nothing short of us getting fleeced by him and the rich.

SackAttack 02-03-2020 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263617)
And always wanting to weigh both sides


You can fuck right off to Fuckyourselfville with that bullshit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263618)
Your assumption that a threat of impeachment would have somewhat constrained Trump is questionable.


Once acquitted, what incentive for good behavior does he have? He now demonstrably has a Senate with neither the balls nor the spine to tell him no.

SackAttack 02-03-2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263652)
Sen Ernst said today that if Biden wins they will immediately start impeachment hearings.

So much for will of the voters, too partisan, blah blah blah.


In '2016 they were yammering about having enough material for years of hearings to slam Clinton with and ohbytheway we're gonna impeach her for Benghazi.

Nothing new.

ISiddiqui 02-03-2020 03:09 PM

If Biden wins, the House is likely going to stay Democratic... so... no, they won't.

Atocep 02-03-2020 03:56 PM

Very McConnell-esque

Virginia GOP delegate tries to kill own bill to remove Democratic segregationist statue | TheHill


Quote:

Del. Wendell Walker (R) introduced a bill to remove the tribute to former governor and U.S. senator in Richmond, after a Democratic push to remove Confederate statues in the state, reported The News & Advance, a Lynchburg, Va., newspaper.

“The reason I put that in was more of a political reason,” Walker said of the reasoning behind wanting to kill the proposal, according to the newspaper.

Walker offered his bill in response to Democratic efforts to remove Confederate statues across the state, including the statue of Gen. Robert E. Lee in the U.S. Capitol building. These controversial efforts have sparked protests, including in Charlottesville in 2017 after the town decided to take down its statue of Lee.

After Democratic delegates expressed their support for Walker's bill, he requested the bill no longer be considered, as he did not want the statue to actually be taken down.

“I think history is very important, whether it’s good, bad or ugly,” Walker said, according to the paper. “I was not willing to allow the governor to have the opportunity to remove statues.”

Edward64 02-03-2020 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack (Post 3263809)
You can fuck right off to Fuckyourselfville with that bullshit.


Guess not interested in fair & balanced?

Quote:

Once acquitted, what incentive for good behavior does he have? He now demonstrably has a Senate with neither the balls nor the spine to tell him no.

I thought I answered it.
Quote:

Your assumption that a threat of impeachment would have somewhat constrained Trump is questionable. Arguably, for the House to not impeach Trump would have emboldened him even more. I think the threat of a 2-time impeachment club is just as persuasive.

I supported the impeachment process because it was the right thing to do. It also puts our politicians on record which is good.

Its all out there now (calling on Bolton as additional witness for Ukraine is really pointless) and if Trump gets re-elected even with this impeachment, the Dems/Libs will need to take a good hard look in the mirror and assess whether they really are in tuned with the priorities and sentiments of the country as a whole (e.g. not just liberal enclaves in the NE and West).

Edward64 02-03-2020 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263804)
Yup, it shows direction. If the president left the yearly deficit lower than when he entered office I consider that positive change and vice versa.

A president can't control where he starts from which is why I don't like the total deficits metric.


Per the Maddow chart, the first year of a Presidency is multi-colored. Take out all first year deficits because it came from the previous year/administration. So for Obama, remove 2009 from the discussion.

In 2010, 2011 & 2012, the deficit is > $1T each year. Far greater than any other Presidents before him in raw $ (not sure where to get $ adjusted for inflation but that would be a better measure). In 2013 it drops to $650B.

That would be a dramatic drop but I don't think the "rate of decrease" is as relevant because 2010-2012 were such dramatically bad years. The damage was front loaded and already done. I don't care as much the decrease was 40-50% from 2012 to 2013 when we were already $3-4T up in 2010-2012.

Hence, my position that the total accumulated deficit is more important than rate of increase/decrease.

Let's agree to disagree.

Ben E Lou 02-03-2020 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack (Post 3263809)
You can fuck right off to Fuckyourselfville with that bullshit.

Let's take a break, Sack.

Edward64 02-03-2020 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3263807)
And external factors matter. The Great Recession demanded increased federal spending.

In that sense, Trump has been the worst, by far. He's run up trillion dollar plus deficits with a good economy for all four years.


This is fair. Much of Obama's deficits were because of the GR. Just like we can say much of GWB deficits were because of 9/11 wars.

Look at Obama's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. Those deficits were just as great as GWB who had a war to deal with.

For Trump, according to Maddow's chart, its not all 3 years but your point is taken. He is headed in the wrong direction in a record way for sure.

One caveat for future conversations -- I think we have to look at raw deficit/debt $ but it needs to be complemented by "as a % of GDP" and normalized for today's $. The wiki article had % of GDP but only went through Obama's first term and (obviously) nothing on Trump.

stevew 02-03-2020 06:04 PM

Why do you guys keep engaging the Russian bot troll

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263830)
This is fair. Much of Obama's deficits were because of the GR. Just like we can say much of GWB deficits were because of 9/11 wars.

Look at Obama's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. Those deficits were just as great as GWB who had a war to deal with.

For Trump, according to Maddow's chart, its not all 3 years but your point is taken. He is headed in the wrong direction in a record way for sure.

One caveat for future conversations -- I think we have to look at raw deficit/debt $ but it needs to be complemented by "as a % of GDP" and normalized for today's $. The wiki article had % of GDP but only went through Obama's first term and (obviously) nothing on Trump.


Define "9/11 wars"

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 3263832)
Why do you guys keep engaging the Russian bot troll


I was made in Singapore thank you very much!

RainMaker 02-03-2020 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263830)
This is fair. Much of Obama's deficits were because of the GR. Just like we can say much of GWB deficits were because of 9/11 wars.


No, much of the deficit under GWB was from his tax cuts for the rich.

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3263836)
No, much of the deficit under GWB was from his tax cuts for the rich.


And Iraq War

RainMaker 02-03-2020 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263837)
And Iraq War


Yes the wars were considerable costs, but it doesn't touch what we lost from the tax cuts. For that, Bush deserves some blame for the deficit under Obama. Although Obama later extended portions of it so he gets some blame too.

Edward64 02-03-2020 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263834)
Define "9/11 wars"


It seems self evident to me -- Afghanistan and Iraq.

Did I miss a nuance, why did you ask?

The other low intensity conflicts probably did not add much to the deficit.

larrymcg421 02-03-2020 08:29 PM

Using the Iraq War as a mitigating factor in Bush's management of the deficit is a really weird argument considering many of the arguments against the war centered around how much it would cost, especially because it would take much longer than the administration was touting. No shit the war was a major factor in the deficit increase. That's kinda the point.

Edward64 02-03-2020 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263835)
I was made in Singapore thank you very much!


There's plenty of troll bots on this forum.

Are you the Dem/Lib troll bot or the Independent troll bot or the GOP/Trumpers troll bot?

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263848)
It seems self evident to me -- Afghanistan and Iraq.

Did I miss a nuance, why did you ask?

The other low intensity conflicts probably did not add much to the deficit.


I was just making sure you lumped the Iraq War (because Saddam caused 9/11) in the "9/11 wars" before I put words in your mouth

It was first time I've heard that phrase.

NobodyHere 02-03-2020 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263851)
There's plenty of troll bots on this forum.

Are you the Dem/Lib troll bot or the Independent troll bot or the GOP/Trumpers troll bot?


You'll have to ask my maker.

Edward64 02-03-2020 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3263853)
I was just making sure you lumped the Iraq War (because Saddam caused 9/11) in the "9/11 wars" before I put words in your mouth

It was first time I've heard that phrase.


Okay, I understand. Yes, agree my wording could be better but I was thinking Afghanistan and Iraq part deaux.

Atocep 02-03-2020 09:55 PM

It's like watching a toddler that can't sit still. There seriously has to be something medically wrong with the man.

Trump is caught on camera waving his hands during national anthem - Business Insider

AlexB 02-04-2020 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3263851)
There's plenty of troll bots on this forum.

Are you the Dem/Lib troll bot or the Independent troll bot or the GOP/Trumpers troll bot?


Have you ever seen Bladerunner?

JPhillips 02-04-2020 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3263865)
It's like watching a toddler that can't sit still. There seriously has to be something medically wrong with the man.

Trump is caught on camera waving his hands during national anthem - Business Insider


That looks like a guy suffering from dementia.

BYU 14 02-04-2020 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3263865)
It's like watching a toddler that can't sit still. There seriously has to be something medically wrong with the man.

Trump is caught on camera waving his hands during national anthem - Business Insider


So kneeling and remaining silent is disrespectful, but talking, waving your arms, gesturing and being otherwise disruptive is perfectly respectful? Okay.

cartman 02-04-2020 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3263912)
So kneeling and remaining silent is disrespectful, but talking, waving your arms, gesturing and being otherwise disruptive is perfectly respectful? Okay.


Remember, he has Article II of the Constitution, which allows him to do what ever he wants

Edward64 02-04-2020 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3263902)
Have you ever seen Bladerunner?


Yes but it's been a while. Why?

kingfc22 02-04-2020 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3263912)
So kneeling and remaining silent is disrespectful, but talking, waving your arms, gesturing and being otherwise disruptive is perfectly respectful? Okay.


The “I am rubber and you are glue” approach.

Edward64 02-04-2020 01:56 PM

I think Trump's odds of a second term just went up a some. Lot's of time left for something to happen but he's likely to go into November with a good/strong economy/market (e.g. too late for us to get into an official recession now but market could still crash).

https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/...onal-best.aspx
Quote:

President Donald Trump's job approval rating has risen to 49%, his highest in Gallup polling since he took office in 2017.
:
:
Trump's approval rating has risen because of higher ratings among both Republicans and independents. His 94% approval rating among Republicans is up six percentage points from early January and is three points higher than his previous best among his fellow partisans. The 42% approval rating among independents is up five points, and ties three other polls as his best among that group. Democratic approval is 7%, down slightly from 10%
And the rationale ...

Quote:

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

In addition to possibly reflecting sentiment regarding his impeachment, Trump's increased approval rating may also result from other issues, including:

The recent military action in Iran. More Americans in the new poll approve (53%) than disapprove (45%) of the U.S. military action that resulted in the death of a leading Iranian military general. Iran retaliated but, despite fears of escalation, no further military action has been taken by either side.

Foreign trade. During the poll's field period, Trump also signed the United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The economy. Americans' confidence in the economy is higher than at any point in the past two decades. Similarly, national satisfaction is the highest in nearly 15 years.

PilotMan 02-04-2020 01:59 PM

Sure, he's got as good a chance as a sitting president, who has gotten the green light to manipulate the system for his benefit, as any other previous president has.

PilotMan 02-04-2020 02:02 PM

Sure, he's got as good a chance as a sitting president, with special needs, as any other previous president has.

PilotMan 02-04-2020 02:07 PM

Sure, he's got as good a chance as a sitting president, who is defended by rape, murder, and child porn lawyers, as any other previous president has.

JPhillips 02-04-2020 03:22 PM

He's an incumbent with a good economy, he should be the favorite.

Also, don't put too much stock in one poll.

Atocep 02-04-2020 04:25 PM

I'm sure I missed this at some point, but we're pro landmine now?

JediKooter 02-04-2020 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3263981)
I'm sure I missed this at some point, but we're pro landmine now?


Yes. And if by 'we', you mean trump and his ilk...yes.

PilotMan 02-04-2020 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3263981)
I'm sure I missed this at some point, but we're pro landmine now?



Bone Spurs for all! Real ones this time too!

Edward64 02-04-2020 08:13 PM

That breathing again.

And Nancy busy doing work in the background. It would be hilarious if she took out her iPhone and started texting!

Edward64 02-04-2020 08:25 PM

Forgot about the clapping after every sentence.

GOP clapping and cheers seem almost ... giddy?

MSM will analyze the inaccuracies and provide more context but Trump is giving a pretty good speech right now.

Coffee Warlord 02-04-2020 09:27 PM

The Pelosi paper rip becomes a massive meme within 24 hours.

kingfc22 02-04-2020 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3264004)
Forgot about the clapping after every sentence.

GOP clapping and cheers seem almost ... giddy?

MSM will analyze the inaccuracies and provide more context but Trump is giving a pretty good speech right now.


A pretty good speech if you’re living in an alternative universe where the only thing that matters is what The Great Leader tells us should matter. Facts be damned.

Edward64 02-04-2020 10:05 PM

Didn't watch all of it so catching up some.

Inviting Juan Guaido was a good move. I hope this means we will be doing more in Venezuela.

Pelosi supposedly tearing up the SOTU speech at the end is fun. Both are trying to show each other up and it's entertaining.

lungs 02-04-2020 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3264019)
Inviting Juan Guaido was a good move. I hope this means we will be doing more in Venezuela.


Yes! Let’s meddle some more, because it’s been so successful in the past! As if Chavez/Maduro wasn’t a direct result of our propping up other corrupt governments....

Edward64 02-04-2020 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 3264021)
Yes! Let’s meddle some more, because it’s been so successful in the past! As if Chavez/Maduro wasn’t a direct result of our propping up other corrupt governments....


So has there been any US support of an existing foreign government or opposition leader that you would support?

Trying to understand what would be "good/justifiable" vs "bad"

lungs 02-04-2020 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3264022)
So has there been any US support of an existing foreign government or opposition leader that you would support?


I’m not sure I get the question.

I am opposed to meddling in the internal politics of other countries because quite frankly, we do not have a very good history in that regard and it has a direct correlation to troubled spots we deal with today.

We supported the overthrow of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953, which gave us the Shah. Which in turn gave us the Revolution in 1979 and our current enmity with Iran.

Our support of corrupt Cuban military governments gave us Castro. And the pattern repeats over and over in Latin America.

Supporting the overthrow of Ghadaffi in Libya and Assad in Syria has done nothing but give more power to Islamists.

We needed a do over in Egypt after we realized we didn’t really like the results of their free elections.

Point being, I can’t think of any meddling we have been a part of in other country’s internal politics that has been a long term positive for us.

And if we are going to bitch about Russia meddling with our elections, we really ought to have a leg to stand on. And we don’t. Not even close.

JonInMiddleGA 02-04-2020 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 3264025)
And if we are going to bitch about Russia meddling with our elections, we really ought to have a leg to stand on. And we don’t. Not even close.


Which is why you haven't heard me bitch about that stuff.

Every nation acts in their own best interest, not particularly more or less than we do historically.


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