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-   -   Israeli-Hamas & Iran war (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=99006)

GrantDawg 06-23-2025 08:28 PM

Iran is saying they have ceased military operation versus Israel. Israel is completely silent so far. Meanwhile bases all across Iraq have been attacked.

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Edward64 06-23-2025 08:44 PM

Hopefully, it holds.

After this 12 Day war, back to Gaza

JPhillips 06-23-2025 10:39 PM

I'm seeing that Iran has launched four barrages against Israel after Trump's announcement.

Edward64 06-23-2025 11:10 PM

Interesting question … if Iran launches missiles before the ceasefire and the missiles impact after the ceasefire, does that break the ceasefire?

GrantDawg 06-23-2025 11:51 PM

Iran keeps launching missiles, and then announcing "and NOW there is a ceasefire." Weird.

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Danny 06-24-2025 12:01 AM

Like siblings saying truce but then hitting again, no for real truce this time

Danny 06-24-2025 12:08 AM

I will however actually give Trump credit if there truly is a ceasefire and end to the war this quickly. (And its a for real end)

GrantDawg 06-24-2025 04:34 AM

The truce lasted two hours.

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Edward64 06-24-2025 05:18 AM

Who broke it?

GrantDawg 06-24-2025 05:22 AM

Israel claims Iran. They said Iran fired missiles that killed four after the ceasefire, and say they are resuming bombing Tehran.

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Edward64 06-24-2025 05:24 AM

Weirdly fascinating ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/airs...uae-qatar.html
Quote:

Airspace over the Middle East on Monday afternoon EDT, according to FlightRadar24.

Edward64 06-24-2025 05:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465245)
Israel claims Iran. They said Iran fired missiles that killed four after the ceasefire, and say they are resuming bombing Tehran.


Israel should just take the win.

The post 12-Day war in Iran (and Gaza) will be interesting. I'm sure there'll be unintended consequences out of this.

GrantDawg 06-24-2025 05:53 AM

Trump just spoke to the press on his way to board Air Force One to the NATO summit.
"US President Trump said both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire, adding, “I don’t think so,” when asked if the truce had collapsed.

He stated, “Iran’s nuclear capacities are gone. They will never rebuild their nuclear program.”

Trump added, “I’m not happy with Israel, not happy with Iran, but I’m really unhappy with Israel.”"

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Edward64 06-24-2025 05:56 AM

I'll one up you, supposedly right now (but can't verify) ...

Quote:

Trump@Truth:

ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

Lathum 06-24-2025 06:02 AM

He is such a weak and ineffective leader.

Israel behaving like a spoiled child used to getting whatever they want from their parents and now he is saying he has to reel them in.

Lathum 06-24-2025 06:04 AM

dola- Trump of course turns this in to bashing CNN and some network called MSCNC

Lathum 06-24-2025 06:05 AM

Whoa- Trump dropping an F-Bomb!

Lathum 06-24-2025 06:07 AM

quad dola- could you imagine if Biden, or God forbid Obama, dropped an F bomb while bashing FOX News? They would be clutching their pearls for weeks..

Edward64 06-24-2025 06:38 AM

Looks like Daddy spanked Bibi ... hope he's learn his lesson. Love it (if it holds).

Quote:

ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES - Truth Social


FWIW, from what I've read so far, the 4 deaths were cause pre-ceasefire (arguably). But there was an Iranian launch after the ceasefire began that did not injure anyone. Iran denies this but there should be evidence if true & MSM was so inclined to dig into it.


EDIT: from redditors, supposedly Israel jets destroyed a radar but turned back from doing more. I guess that's proportionate for the 1 missile after the ceasefire.

kingfc22 06-24-2025 08:11 AM

Trump getting played like a fiddle. Such a weak pawn

Danny 06-24-2025 05:08 PM

Iran will be back to where they were by the start of the NFL season. Good use of 500 million.

RainMaker 06-24-2025 07:58 PM

Gaza health authorities say Israel kills 44 waiting for aid | AP News

flere-imsaho 06-24-2025 08:45 PM

US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites only set back program by months, Pentagon report says | Iran | The Guardian

Could have fed starving kids with that money, but oh well....

RainMaker 06-24-2025 08:51 PM

They only do that when Israel can shoot them.

Edward64 06-25-2025 05:11 AM

I'll wait for more analysis (and humint) about Fordow, but if true that it wasn't hurt that badly and can be up and running in several months, then not good news.

If Israelis really believe this assessment, they need to come up with a Plan B soon because if I was Khamenei, I'd pour all resources into a nuke.

Lathum 06-25-2025 06:41 AM

Analysis from whom? This administration will continue to lie and say Iran has been defeated.

Atocep 06-25-2025 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3465296)
I'll wait for more analysis (and humint) about Fordow, but if true that it wasn't hurt that badly and can be up and running in several months, then not good news.

If Israelis really believe this assessment, they need to come up with a Plan B soon because if I was Khamenei, I'd pour all resources into a nuke.



We just need more good guys with nukes.

PilotMan 06-25-2025 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3465299)
Analysis from whom? This administration will continue to lie and say Iran has been defeated.



WH response is below.


RainMaker 06-25-2025 01:18 PM

Iran should have built a nuke years ago. It was a huge mistake on their part. But people thinking that they will start now just don't understand Khamenei or how the country is run.

Ali Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons - Wikipedia

GrantDawg 06-25-2025 04:35 PM

DOD presser at 8am in the morning (again, because Pete is too drunk by noon to do one later) is going to give damage assessment from the attack. The orange man is big mad that people don't believe they destroyed everything.

GrantDawg 06-25-2025 05:37 PM

"It was the United States that saved Israel, and it will be the United States that will save Bibi Netanyahu", Trump just said in an unhinged post. What is he talking about? Invading Israel?

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Edward64 06-25-2025 06:08 PM

Anyone know what Trump is meeting with Iran about next week?

flere-imsaho 06-25-2025 07:32 PM

Bro, I'm pretty sure Trump doesn't know what he's meeting about with Iran next week.

Edward64 06-26-2025 04:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3465299)
Analysis from whom? This administration will continue to lie and say Iran has been defeated.


The report was preliminary and "low-confidence". That in itself should make us pause and wait for additional info.

nytimes.com
Quote:

The report assessed that overall the nuclear program had been delayed by months, according to two people briefed on its contents. But the report’s conclusion said there was “low confidence” in that finding, reflecting the preliminary nature of the assessment and the variables and uncertainty that intelligence agencies have always wrestled with in predicting Iranian nuclear advances.


Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465335)
"It was the United States that saved Israel, and it will be the United States that will save Bibi Netanyahu", Trump just said in an unhinged post. What is he talking about? Invading Israel?

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I think something about Bibi's graft trial

GrantDawg 06-26-2025 09:42 AM

I know that was the subject matter. My question is what authority does the United States or POTUS have over the Israeli Supreme Court? How is he going to "save" Bibi? Invasion? Take him out of the country by special forces? Some kind of sanctions? What?
And I agree with you on the assessment. It is an early assessment that may or not be factual. It was obviously leaked to hurt the President, and I don't mind hurting the President, but that is far from making it gospel.

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Edward64 06-26-2025 04:03 PM

There is speculation that Syria will be joining the Abraham accords.

Campaign to expand Abraham Accords sparks backlash after al-Sharaa appears with Netan
Quote:

After nearly 21 months of multi-front warfare, calls—primarily from the United States—to expand the Abraham Accords are reemerging. President Donald Trump has publicly urged Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa to join, and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said Wednesday that he expects “major announcements” soon.


Redditors are disagreeing on what concessions Israel has to make (e.g. Golan Heights?). Don't really know, but can see Trump providing the carrot of some sort.

RainMaker 06-26-2025 04:56 PM

I'm guessing Israel gets the Golan Heights because al-Sharaa is likely a CIA asset at this point and has done everything Israel has wanted to this point. Like the whole point of installing him into power was so Israel could expand.

Passacaglia 06-26-2025 05:12 PM

Does Syria even want the Golan Heights at this point? It feels like that's something no one has cared about for over 20 years.

RainMaker 06-26-2025 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 3465386)
Does Syria even want the Golan Heights at this point? It feels like that's something no one has cared about for over 20 years.


They did but this is likely the concession the Al-Qaeda guy had to make to not get drone striked by us.

Edward64 06-27-2025 05:14 AM

re: Trump meeting with Iran, think it's related to below ...

US-Iran talks: Details emerge of secret diplomatic efforts | CNN Politics
Quote:

The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds – all part of an intensifying attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, four sources familiar with the matter said.
:
They are preliminary and evolving with one consistent non-negotiable: zero Iranian enrichment of uranium, which Iran has consistently said it needs.

I think it's way too soon to resume negotiations and Iran should just decline meeting with US.

Iran is still butt hurt from the attack (and rightly so). I mean, what else can Israel & US do that they haven't already? They also need to stabilize domestically from the post-attack repercussions. I'd say frak you and continue to increase building relationship with Russia & China.

Edward64 06-28-2025 05:42 AM

There's going to be repercussions on below. Article has quotes from numerous IDF soldiers so I'd think it can be verified/corroborated.

I read the article through r/israel but that thread has been closed. AlJazeera has an article with their take. The article below is behind a paywall so can't provide any quotes.

'It's a Killing Field': IDF Soldiers Ordered to Shoot Deliberately at Unarmed Gazans Waiting for Humanitarian Aid - Israel News - Haaretz.com


I am paraphrasing and may not be providing full context, but here's my take ...
  1. Multiple IDF soldiers said they witnessed IDF shooting "at" Gazans near GHF waiting/lining up for food aid
  2. They did say this was to stop them from coming too close before the food stations were ready. Essentially, crowd control
  3. None said there were shots fired at them or thought they were in danger
  4. There is an allied paramilitary also helping out. Some of the shootings can be attributed to them but not all

I looked for it in the article but did not read it. There were quotes where IDF soldiers said IDF shot "at" Gazans. I was looking for "we shot in front of them to warn them", but I did not read that.

I get crowd control but you'd think they would use rubber bullets, tear gas, water cannons etc. and only lethal weapons if they were going to be overrun. Heck, I would even mine a buffer area and have clear warning signs.

I get there are some trigger happy and/or extremist IDF. And if corroborated, they should be punished severely.

I can accept that early in the GHF aid process, there would be confusion and processes/security not well in place. It's been about a month now (?) and wonder if things are better now vs early on.

I think western countries should insist on MSM allowed inside GHF where they can provide video/drone evidence.

Edward64 06-29-2025 05:52 AM

A rebuttal to the Haaretz article above ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3465459)
I looked for it in the article but did not read it. There were quotes where IDF soldiers said IDF shot "at" Gazans. I was looking for "we shot in front of them to warn them", but I did not read that.

I don't speak Hebrew but seems plausible to address my above concern with the wording "shot at"

Quote:

As flagged by @YairElsner and posted on X by the relentlessly excellent Eitan Fischberger, Haaretz’s English edition claims that IDF soldiers were ordered to fire at unarmed Palestinians waiting for food in Gaza, but the original Hebrew version? It states they were told to fire towards crowds to keep them away from the aid sites. This represents a significant difference in intent, legality, and moral implications.
:
I interviewed an IDF soldier who has taken part in crowd-control situations in Gaza. Let me explain what “firing toward” means: warning shots. That might mean rounds hitting 100 meters short, up in the air, or well off to the side—anything to disperse a potentially dangerous crowd without causing casualties.

RainMaker 07-01-2025 05:04 PM

Do you know how fucking stupid you'd have to be to believe that?

flere-imsaho 07-02-2025 09:28 AM

Quote:

This represents a significant difference in intent, legality, and moral implications.

A phrase only a lawyer could love. (No offense to FOFC lawyers)

RainMaker 07-02-2025 03:17 PM

This would be pretty insane considering it's one of the areas militarily that we have a massive advantage on the rest of the world. And there just aren't many out there.

Lawmakers propose B2s and bunker busters to Israel if Iran resumes nuclear program | Fox News

RainMaker 07-02-2025 04:28 PM

Two US contractors describe chaos and gunfire as Palestinians seek food in Gaza | AP News

GrantDawg 07-02-2025 04:42 PM

On the B2, yes that is crazy. We only have 19. They would have to build more, and they haven't built any since 2000. The next bomber that is set to replace them won't be produced until 2032.

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Lathum 07-02-2025 04:54 PM


Fuckin Joe Biden...

RainMaker 07-02-2025 05:05 PM

Maybe things have changed, but back in the day when I was a contractor, anything involving the B-2 was super super sensitive. Like no one had access to that shit at all and you could get in serious trouble for even having a camera around one. The test article they gave to the Air Force Museum required an armed guard 24/7. It was like one of the greatest military technological accomplishments we've had and a massive advantage over other countries. To just hand that tech over to a country with a history of giving it to China seems insane.

All I can think of is the B-21 is way ahead of schedule or they think China has all the information they could possibly need on it already.

GrantDawg 07-02-2025 05:10 PM

I would put money on China having all the information on it, for sure. Of course they are still upgrading, and I guess they could sell like 3 or 4 to Israel that are a generation or two behind like we do with the equipment we are sending to Ukraine. But so few active, I just dont see it.

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