The West went in and drew lines on a map. That was stupid. This is religious tribalism as it has been for thousands of years. Why would anyone think this region would suddenly fall into a nationalistic type of thinking.

Dumb. Erase the lines, let the religions sort themselves out like they have forever.

So what makes Trump’s twitter tirade and threats any different than one of any number of terrorist leaders videos threatening to do harm to America?

Trump will draw new lines with a sharpie and all will be well.

I guess we were both wrong. It isn't primarily about oil, or about defense contractors & weapons sales. It's about skin color.

Colin Kaepernick Blasts U.S. Drone Strike On Iranian General As “American Imperialism�


It could also be about ... WTF?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rose-mc...sem-soleimani/

I have a dear long time friend who I've been exchanging messages with in a group chat all day. He had a few points I wanted to share that I think are pretty pertinent and I thought the group would appreciate.

He is active duty uniformed officer home based in NC. He loyally follows the oath to follow the instruction of our currentvexecutive branch...but he is not a fan. I'll say it that way.
I did get his permission to share these comments without attributing to him.

(Some of these comments are in response to statements questions in the group chat. But I am leaving these unedited for completenesss.

Thanks, By the time I post here at all I'm overly passionate and get a little crazy at times. I should have stopped at the first concise point :D I think the general idea that we should not feel as safe as we once did on home soil during any conflict is part of the consideration now, but past that yeah, I get your point completely.

Thanks for sharing this.

My reason for not voting for Trump, even though I hated the idea of Hillary was "Trump would be more likely to start world war 3"... I hope that doesn't end up being true...

Huh? He's many things and some of them aren't complimentary, but I don't see how anyone can take even a cursory view of his accomplishments/life story and think he's a moron.

Trump threatens to target 52 Iranian sites 'VERY FAST AND VERY HARD' if it retaliates against any American assets

One problem is striking cultural sites is against the rules of engagement for war that the US and other nations have signed up for. Also, that is what other countries do like the Taliban did in Afghanistan not the US.

It's really hard to claim we're the good guys at this point.

Yes agreed.

b'cause Amurka...

I don't think he's a moron, but at this point I'm pretty sure he's a con-man.

The BEST deal maker.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...120_story.html

“ISTANBUL — Iran said Sunday that it is suspending all commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal it had struck with world powers and will abandon restrictions on uranium enrichment and other activities unless U.S. sanctions are lifted.“

Indeed.

CBP Detaining Iranians, Iranian-Americans: CAIR | Law & Crime

Roundabout way of ending the pointless time spent in Iraq

Runs out of steam a little in the 2nd half, but up to and including the reference to killing people it seems very relevant!

I guess if we are to be happy about anything to come out of this Trump has at least enlightened half the county how pointless war in the middle east is.

can Bruce Willis come save us from the republicans?

Story time

I joined the Army in April of '98 as a 19 year old. I was in language school and various follow-on training opportunities until January of 2000 when I finally arrived at my unit in Germany. By then we were 9 years past Desert Storm and it was rare to run into enlisted soldiers that had served during that campaign, but I did live in the barracks with two such soldiers, one of which became a close friend.

On the odd occasions where he'd talk about what it was like, it actually made you proud to be part of our Army. The Iraqi army was severely over-matched, unprepared, and disorganized. Once word started getting out to their units that our PoWs were well fed, received medical attention, and were given generous freedoms it wasn't uncommon for us to roll up on bunkers where the soldiers had already laid down their weapons and lined up trying to be as organized as possible for their surrender. For them, it was either that or get blown away from a mile out by a M1 Abrams.

It got to the point where he told me the only English they would speak when surrendering was "no chicken". I guess these guys were put in bunkers with nothing but live chickens in cages which they were to kill for food. So when MREs were passed around they were desperate to get anything but chicken. Outside of that, the Iraqi prisoners were given basic medical aid they were lacking and were playing soccer to the pass the time. It was a resort vacation to these guys.

Those that talked about their experience made it clear we were able to roll through Iraq so quickly not just because of sheer military might, but because we had a reputation as being the good guys and treated our enemies better than their own government treated them.

Fast forward a few years and it's late 2006 and I'm in my final month in the Army just waiting to clear everything and start life as a civilian. One of the last official military functions I attended was a briefing by a Major that was an expert on the Middle East. He spoke rather candidly to us and the one thing that stuck out to me at the time was he was incredibly critical of the Abu Gharib scandal that broke a couple of years prior. He explained the importance of our reputation, not just to our allies and those we protect, but to our enemies as well. To this day I remember him stating during that briefing that the Abu Gharib scandal very well could extend our stay in the Middle East by as much as a decade. I honestly thought that was absurd at the time. I understood what happened was bad and made us look bad, but I knew how our soldiers were trained to handle PoWs and enemy combatants so one bad thing wasn't going to outweigh all the good we do.

Now, I look back on that briefing and his words were somewhat prophetic and every time discussion comes about the Middle East I think of what he said. I get that it's an oversimplification and there isn't a direct line from then to where we are now, but I do wonder how much of an impact that had in changing the perception of our troops and how many died as a result. Then I look at the things that have happened since then with the water boarding scandals, the Bush administration not exactly being truthful about why we were invading Iraq, indefinite detention without charges, and we now have the President of the United States threatening the cultural sites of a country we're not at war with which is also an indirect threat on civilian life in that country. These things make everything we do afterwards that much more difficult.

Trump reignited the General Pershing myth on the campaign trail, which his supporters cheered at the time, but it turns out that treating your enemies poorly isn't the quickest way to end a conflict. On the contrary, Pershing himself was a big supporter of what we now call nation building and changing culture through education and infrastructure support.

We went into the 2nd Iraq campaign with the benefit of the doubt from the world coming off of 9/11 along with our reputation as a strong and just global presence. In roughly 15 years we've pissed away that goodwill and simply voting out Trump isn't going to be enough to fix this. We move on quickly but foreign perception takes a hell of a lot longer to change.

TBF this post was updated with a response from CBP with what happened as well as saying that those reports were false. Take everything with a grain of salt.

Pretty unlikely as he supports Trump!



P.S. Snopes says he really doesn't support Trump but thought it was a nice pic

I'm not going to pretend I know who's telling the truth here.

Likely some of it happened, some of it exaggeration, some of it miscommunication & confusion (but not because of ... racism!). I'm sure this was rushed and not all the processes were in place.

If, in a week or so, there is systemic pattern of American citizens (regardless of national origin but in this case of Iranian origin) being refused re-entry into the US, then its a big deal.

The rise of Ricky Gervais as a neocon idol is hilarious.

This is false, conjured by CAIR, apparently.

Got any links handy?

I'm kind of wary to believe to believe anyone at this point. I know Trump would love to put part of his muslim ban in place. However I'm kind of wary of a disinformation campaign orchestrated by Iran or Russia.

It's like they have never, ever paid any attention to anything he's ever said before. Up until now.

Yeah I'm in the same boat here. When I first posted that link there had not yet been a response from Border Patrol at all. Currently I just feel up in the air about it, something I could see either side doing.

Listen to him talk, he doesn't come across as intelligent. As for his accomplishments, he built his first company off his Daddy's money.

Tesla has been around for 20 years and doesn't make money and only exists thanks to massive taxpayer subsidies. His broad proclamations either show lack of knowledge in technology or straight up fraud (see Hyperloop, self-driving, etc).

SpaceX also relies almost entirely on government handouts.

I'll give him credit for bilking the taxpayers out of money. But before we label him some savior, maybe he should run a self-sufficient company first.

I saw this on CNN TV when it first broke and was thinking WTF that's a pretty bold move by Trump. Wasn't sure what to think with all the possible repercussions.

Glad to know it was unsigned and a mistake. Would like to know how the draft got leaked.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/06/polit...raq/index.html

The letter came from a General in Iraq who sent it to their government apparently. Esper also came out today and contradicted Trump on hitting cultural sites.

Just seems like people are doing their own thing and there isn't really any plan.

A pretty good summary of Impeached President* Cadet Bone Spurs' entire time in office.

Actually this time I think the apparent discord in the White House works in Trump's favor here. Iran may be more cautious to act if they don't know where Trump's limits are. If they think Trump means to actually hit their cultural sites then they may decide to spread out their defenses to protect those sites.

Sometimes I think the chaos in the WH is manufactured.

I definitely see what you are saying. He's got an 'X' factor that Iran has probably never had to deal with, when we here know it's just him being the same dumb ass he has been for decades. If this is actually coordinated, I wouldn't be surprised if he's just paying back a favor to someone and really doesn't give two cents about Iran to begin with. It's like that strange dog, you don't know what it's going to do. You know what other dogs in the past have done, but, you don't know this one and so far, it isn't acting normally. If Iran was smart, they would hurt him where it would hurt the most, fuck with his money or his means to get it.

I don't remember what the previous incident he did something similar, but he did it with a previous incident, you do not take anything off the table. You don't say we'll hit back if you do anything to us, but we won't hit you here, here, or here. You say we're going to hit you back where its going to hurt.

That said, I do disagree with going public with it. He could have said we're going to hit you if you hit us, etc.

Geez, it looks like the Iranians are doing Trump's work for him.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-s...erman-mourners

It would be interesting if Iran opted to do a cyber attack on Trump's personal financial interests. Or found a way to release his tax returns.

I feel like war crimes as defined by the Geneva Convention should be off the table.

This is a dude who has never been held accountable for anything in his life. He has always been in charge, answered to no one, and used his team of lawyers to protect himself from all of the wrong he has done.

I don't think he gives a shit about war crimes. He's going to do whatever he wants.

Oh I agree, I'm referring to Warhammer saying "you do not take anything off the table" - I have no doubt nothing is off the table in the mind of Trump, but I had hoped that being appalled at the idea of openly threatening actions that are against international law (and US Law) would not be a partisan issue at this point, at the very least amongst members of this forum.

I have no idea why Iran or any other country would not trust him...


Anatomy of a Trump rally: 67 percent of claims are false or lacking evidence

Or the alleged pee tapes.

Iranian Americans describe ordeal of detention at U.S.-Canada border - Los Angeles Times

An individual account of the situation at the Canadian Border. The thing that strikes me here is that everyone seems to be speaking calmly and reasonably here. There is frustration and maybe even outrage, but the description of events here isn't blinded by rage, and even points out specifically "that there was no mistreatment" - but rather an observation that US Citizens were being singled out based on their descent and were being questioned on loyalty before being allowed back in the country.


At this point I just have a very hard time believing the Border Patrol's statement that they were simply short staffed and busy, combined with heightened security without regard for race or country of origin. I'd like to think I'm open to new information, we'll see if any comes out or if its only going to be further statements from individuals who were held up at the border.

Not doing the war crimes has been implied in our responses to threats for decades. Now we can't be sure that Americans won't sink to the level of terrorists.

He just pardoned a war criminal and plans to campaign with him. Pretty sure he is pro-war crime.

Trump knows every Greek person in the U.S.

Trump and Zeus, who is a very fine God, are often found golfing together at the Trump mount Olympus Gold Club. Apollo and Hermes often join them.

Iran is currently bombing us in Iraq. Al Asad base is being hit the most it seems.

Great

Just a little bit of noise

If these are ballistic and not just rockets, that's bad news.

It's a good thing I've already failed miserably in the military. I won't be drafted.

hey so how’s he doing?

Welcome back!

And 7 is looking good I guess

What's the fucking clown going to do now

Some reports that we have plans in the air already. Iran is telling countries that any attacks that originate from their boarders will make them a target for retaliation as well.

Iran seems to be trying to isolate our forces as much as possible and fracture our support in the middle east.

Thanks, bud.

And hey, it’s something.

Our military is a mess but if this is true, there are going to be a lot of dead Irani pilots. This is one area that the US does not fuck around.

BREAKING: Iranian fighter jets have taken off from air bases in Iran

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) January 8, 2020

Curious, but in what ways are you determining that the military is a mess?

Bunch of unfilled positions at the top of the military. Decades of strategic folly. A mush brained moron in charge of the whole thing.

What can anyone have seen from our military in the past 50-60 years to give them confidence going forward?

Lol... that's what your basing this off of? I mean actual military stuff, not political.

So far it sounds like the Iraqis have the casualties at the two bases hit. Who the hell would want to be put ally going forward.

Yeah, I don't get this either. You can almost always trace the root of military blunders to politicians. When you stay the fuck out of the way and let competent military leaders do what they get paid to do and get out we are pretty effective. See Desert Storm 1.

Well we have cool military stuff and well-trained soldiers. We also haven't won a war in like 70 years.

Political leaders are the one's who command the military. And results matter.

What would make anyone think that the current administration would do that?

Well, therein lies the problem doesn't it. Sadly, I have no faith in this administration to do anything but fuck this up at epic levels.

What competent military leadership? Tommy Franks was found to be a buffoon way in over his head. I think he spends his time now bilking charities set up for wounded vets he sent into battle.

It wasn't politicians who botched Tora Bora. It was Petraeus who came up with the failed COIN plan in Afghanistan (I believe this war around the time he was passing classified info to his fuck buddy).

Sanchez was just a disaster which is well-documented. Casey was clueless and let the mess exacerbate itself because he had no idea how to handle the insurgency.

With no performance departures or accountability of any kind as you climb the ranks, you just end up with a bunch of mediocre generals handling conflicts they are not equipped to deal with.

Sanchez moved with 1st AD onto the post I was stationed at in Germany during the Summer of '01 and was post commander there during 9/11 until I left roughly a year later. My limited interaction with him was on 9/11 and was a complete shitshow that nearly resulted in a soldier getting run over, shots nearly being fired at his caravan by gate guards, and a lot of screaming and yelling.

No one I spoke to that knew him really cared much for him or respected him. Our Brigade Commander could not stand him. I did have some interactions with his Sergeant Major who was as big of a jackass as you could find.

Between the incident on 9/11 and the decisions he made about how things operated on post after his arrival I'm not the least bit surprised of what happened later in his career.

We win the battles part, I won't say we lose but we also don't win the war parts, largely because we've been fighting against well funded proxies instead of the actual opponent, and that just saps morale in both the military & the domestic population long term.

I didn't want Trump to be the one to do it, don't trust him at all in his response (can we please go after their nuclear sites or Hormuz instead of "cultural" sites), but if this truly does get Iran to outwardly attack us under their name instead of proxies like the Ayatollah allegedly said and they apparently did tonight that's a win long term. Unfortunately you'll still have Saudi Arabia & Russia funding some enemies, but if they're smart they'll STFU & at least wait until Trump finds a different shiny new toy to focus on to start sowing discord.

"we don't want a war with iran but we're prepared to finish one"

put your dick away, dicks

I've never heard good things about Sanchez. Petraeus was very smart, perhaps not as smart as he thought he was, but I don't think the larger structural issues were on him. Regardless, I think even Rainmaker is acknowledging that we'll dominate in any air battle or conventional military fight, due to better technology alone (though I also think we have better training at those elite levels). You start trying to invade Iran or whatever? Yikes. But tit for tat air strikes? Sure, LFG you idiots.

My assessment

(1) Don’t start a nuclear war

TBD

(2) Secure the borders and reform immigration (somehow)

Pretty good in securing borders. Holistic immigration reform not being done, its just very targeted and not as effective IMO. 6 or 7/10

(3) Greatly reduce ISIL, resolve the Syrian war

He doesn't get all the credit but pretty good on ISIL. Syria is still TBD but its getting there. 8/10

(4) Strengthen our relationships with friends

Poor other than Israel and maybe frenemy Saudi Arabia. Russia doesn't count. 3/10

(5) Reduce our dependence on global oil, encourage alternate fuels

He doesn't get all the credit because a lot was already in place before 2016 but he hasn't done much to screw it up. So I'd give him a 7/10

(6) Balance the budget and reduce the deficit

Total failure. 0/10

(7) Grow the economy & stock market

Economy is not growing as much as he said but I'll take the 2-3% anyday. Stock market is doing wonders so far. 9/10 (but will reduce if the stock market crashes)

Probably should also add

(8) North Korea

I had high hopes that Trump could do a breakthrough with the crazy kid. All is not lost but probably not going to happen. I'll give him some credit for trying. 3/10

(9) China

This one is still up in the air. He gets a lot of credit in trying and I'm still not sure what's in the suppose Phase 1 deal. So I'll say TBD



What is your assessment?

Timely and foreshadowing (?) if not photoshopped.

Incredible 'red devil horns' sunrise photos captured during rare solar eclipse mirage over the ocean

Yeah, land invasion of Iran won't work nor can I forsee a necessity with all the nice toys we have. Closest is another buildup in Iraq but that brings a host of other issues.

Not good. BBC is reporting just with headlines that a Ukrainian plane crashed in Iran.

I doubt it has anything to do with the latest escalation but not a good week for the region.

Ukrainian passenger plane crashes in Iran - BBC News

Iran seems to be sending signals that they'll stop if the U.S. stops. With no Americans killed, that's the obvious choice, but who knows which Fox host Trump will listen to, Hannity or Carlson?

Got to wait until tomorrow to address the people because he starts sundowning with the sunset and speaking from the Oval Office is different from frothing at the mouth at a MAGA rally.

Stop what, openly attacking us incompetently & go back to kinda successfully fighting us via proxy? I agree that the lack of US casualties gives Trump the out if he wants it, but what part of anything he's ever done gives you the impression Trump will agree to a ceasefire if someone else threw the last punch, even if it was a miss? I will say I'm pretty surprised we haven't responded yet if it's been easily identifiable rockets shot from the Iranian military in Iranian territory vs US bases. (EDIT - but yes, maybe he's just asleep right now & we'll get the response when he wakes up.)

Except you didn't say the politicians are a mess, you said the military is a mess. Which makes me question your sanity (or blind devotion to some Interwebz warz point you're too proud to back down from).

The military is not a mess. It's pretty much the most powerful fighting force ever constructed. Not only the best equipped and trained but also with a frightening ability to project its power over thousands of miles.

As for wars won, I think it's rather daft way to measure military might, but if you want to go that route, the war portions of Desert Storm, the Iraq War and Afghanistan were all smashing successes, militarily. It was the afterwards occupational part which failed-- largely again because of politicians.

You know, if roles were reversed, I think the US would be doing almost everything that Iran currently is. The similarities and predictability of behavior in all this seems obvious to me.

Look no further than the response to the Patriots loss this weekend. We (as in if the US was Iran) would be very ready to cheer against the big bully and every slight they make against us. We're proud enough to defend and demand respect on the global stage, whatever form that takes.

Shurg, I guess I'm just looking at all this through a completely different lens and it all seems incredibly overblown.

I will say that an entire generation has been damaged by 20 years of armed conflict. The human body just isn't designed to handle a constant stream of adrenaline. You don't need to look far domestically to see that result.

welp Trump chickening out of giving a TV address...
guess his advisers found him in a corner writing "I am Jesus" 100 times on the walls.

Operation Desert Storm led to the emergence of Al-Qaeda which ended up killing over 3,000 people on US soil. Not to mention the spark that launched us into two failed military campaigns that have cost countless lives and money.

We're 18 years into Afghanistan and practically nothing has changed. It's still a war torn region that the Taliban largely controls.

Iraq was an utter disaster that has destabilized the region and put the country in-between Iran and ISIS. We've been there almost 2 decades and it's got us on the cusp of another big war.

And if we're defining "military success" by body count or whatever, might as well congratulate Germany on their overwhelming victory in World War 2. The occupation part is a huge element of war. Arguably the most important part. There's more to war than killing people and blowing up buildings in countries that can't fight back.

Yes


Yes


Trump is unpredictable, who knows what he'll do. I hope he will ease off until the next Iranian or Iranian sponsored "strike". I'm afraid he'll play this situation through Nov 2020 to keep his base and maybe gain some.

Iran's Air Force is a joke. I think it's just some old F-14 Tomcats. If they were dumb enough to challenge us in the air, it'd be target practice for our pilots. The training and technological advantage is overwhelming.

But I think Iran knows this. They don't invest in that area. They've put most of their resources toward missile technology. And that technology is pretty good. Variations of the KH-55 I think. They have the capability to do some serious damage in the region if they want.

This is why I think their "response" was more about keeping things good domestically. It doesn't appear that they were looking to rack up American casualties or destroy too much of the base. And their response after seems to be "we had to do this so we don't look like pussies at home, let's call it even". If they wanted to escalate, there are far better targets.

In full disclosure, I used to work for Raytheon and spent time in the Middle East for them. Not my finest hour.

Edit: I didn't do anything exciting for them.

Again, you refuse to acknowledge how any of that applies to what you ACTUALLY said. You described the military as a mess. When the military was mobilized to do what it needs to do (go defeat the standing military forces of other countries), it has done quite well.

I'm okay if you want to amend your statement to saying that the combination of U.S. policy, incompetent politicans, poor intellirence, and poor decision-making regarding the occupations of defeated territories have led to the overall failure of American efforts in the region. That's an entirely defensible position-- one I would agree with. But that's not really on the military at all.

Care to try again?

Except for a little thing called AQ (and OBL).


This I would generally agree with. A lot has changed there but not, arguably, for the better of Iraqis nor US interests.

Does he have a cold. He sounds like he is gonna die.

I know his words and actions often do not match, but if he stays true to his speech, I will be impressed.

Iran is saying the retaliation is over. If true, then I can only imagine this is a big victory for Trump and we'll be hearing about it over and over again for the next few weeks.

I think this will be a net-win for Trump if there is no further escalation.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

If the Iraqi Parliament is pissed off enough at us that they want us to leave, is it really a win? Maybe in the short-short term.

Yeah, net win for Trump if no other direct/military attacks. Big bad guy dead. Iran has 22 less missiles. No US personnel hurt. Arguably as important as OBL (probably a notch down IMO) and a story to tell over and over this year. I'll take a "slap" for our kick in their balls.

However, I'm sure there will be other proxy attacks, probably more now and more brazen.

Step 1: Talk a bunch of shit about the International Nuclear Treaty.
Step 2: Pull out of International Nuclear Treaty

Step 3: Impose Sanctions
Step 4: Opposition says "We're done complying"

Step 5: Talk more shit.
Step 6: Lose International Support
Step 7: Watch Protesters storm the Embassy, light fires and burn things.
Step 8: Kill a major military leader operating in a foreign country.
Step 9: Watch opposition say, "Now we're REALLY done complying"

Step 10: Wait for opposition to tell you where and when they will 'retaliate'.
Step 11: Watch "retaliation"
Step 12: Make a big show of saying "We're good, but we will impose more sanctions"
Step 13: Declare "Win"?



Or


Step 1: Maintain International Treaty


Quite the path to victory I guess?

Yeah, this scans as a mutual off-ramping that's concealing the *real* heavy retaliation via proxy actors. This isn't over yet.

Sign of the times: Being labeled a domestic terrorist may be making Rep. Matt Shea more popular | The Seattle Times