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MrBug708 10-20-2011 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2553057)
Yeah, maybe Tyrith was on the right track with his suggestion to vote out people who are not really contributing anything.


I don't think that's the best idea, but it would be pretty easy for two-face to hide out in that list.

I want to vote out Packerfanatic, but I would hazard a guess (and it's probably metagaming) that he isn't two-face, despite not placing a vote. Unless he also didn't place a night kill, which would explain the lack of a night kill, if it wasn't a conversion, but I don't think anyone would agree on that being it

ntndeacon 10-20-2011 03:02 PM

One of the things that has struck me are the outlier votes. I am much more interested in them than I normally am. They seem to have more implications this game than most.

A disturbed nudging two face with a vote that wont end in a vote off.
Arkham getting lucky on night 1 and not wanting to reveal, but show who could be disturbed.

There are probably other reasons to hint besides those, but those are a couple that I can think of.

Danny 10-20-2011 03:04 PM

Unvote Chief Rum

ntndeacon 10-20-2011 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon (Post 2553067)
One of the things that has struck me are the outlier votes. I am much more interested in them than I normally am. They seem to have more implications this game than most.

A disturbed nudging two face with a vote that wont end in a vote off.
Arkham getting lucky on night 1 and not wanting to reveal, but show who could be disturbed.

There are probably other reasons to hint besides those, but those are a couple that I can think of.


Clearly SnDvls vote is not in this idea, Since we know at least a little about Zinto.But it is something to keep track of I think.

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo (Post 2553024)
It wasn't solely Commo-CF at the time of your vote. Mau was there as well. But I can see your point but you know, you would say all that if you're a wolf.


At the time of my vote, mau had votes but was not a significant part of the vote. He was well behind Commo and CF. mau received a lot of votes after I voted.

Abe Sargent 10-20-2011 03:24 PM

Was Listening to: Claudia Leitte, Trilhos Fortes

Now Listening to: Depeche Mode, Shake the Disease

Next in Queue: Chicago, Vote for Me

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls (Post 2553058)
I still have no information as a vanilla villager so I'm just gonna throw something a the wall and see if it sticks.

vote PackerFan

again no reason 'cept I don't want to vote Commo at this point


I don't like this vote. PF has not been around. It's metagamey, but we can't help what we know. We know Two Face is active, and PF is not. Ergo, PF is not Two Face.

So this is a throwaway vote with little chance of being a hit, IMO.

We're grasping for a second candidate besides Commo, and this strikes me as a suspicious vote. So I am going to go here for now.

VOTE SNDVLS

MrBug708 10-20-2011 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2551970)
Danny unvotes Hoops (1) 319
CrimsonFox unvotes ChiefRum (0) 359
Jackal unvotes CrimsonFox (1) 389
McKerney unvotes DaddyTorgo (0) 403
MrBug unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 423
Tyrith unvotes AbeSargent (2) 429
Tyrith unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 430

Here our unvotes above, up to 6:30 p.m. (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff time).

Our potential Disturbed Citizen-Two Face pairs are:

Danny-Hoops
CF-Chief
Jackal-CF
Mckerney-DT
Bug-CF
Tyrith-CF

I removed the ntn-Autumn pair, of course, and the Tyrith-Abe pair, since Abe is not Two Face. I am pretty comfortable saying I am not Two Face, so you can take out the CF-Chief pairing too.

I find it pretty interesting that CF was voted and unvoted three times during this period, by three different players (Jackal, Bug, Tyrith).


Looking back at this post, there is one combo that hasn't had one member of the "duo" cleared yet, Mckerney and DaddyTorgo and DaddyTorgo missed a vote yesterday.

ntndeacon 10-20-2011 04:13 PM

Looking at all of those possible folks to vote on, not many have raised any questions in my mind yet...At least not enough. But I don't want to spread out the discussion more. I am kinda speculating between Tyrith and MrBug of those choices. Since I know the least about them.

Vote Tyrith

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon (Post 2553102)
Looking at all of those possible folks to vote on, not many have raised any questions in my mind yet...At least not enough. But I don't want to spread out the discussion more. I am kinda speculating between Tyrith and MrBug of those choices. Since I know the least about them.

Vote Tyrith


Hmm...while we have acknowledged that the conversion can have happened after the scan, isn't it a likely low percentage play to vote the guy that was scanned by Dawes as a non-supervillain?

Unless you're thinking he's done enough prior to that to be a possible Disturbed Citizen. Regardless, just curious as to your thinking on that.

Danny 10-20-2011 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 2553101)
Looking back at this post, there is one combo that hasn't had one member of the "duo" cleared yet, Mckerney and DaddyTorgo and DaddyTorgo missed a vote yesterday.


Pretty sure that whole idea of Chief's is a dead end.

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2553100)
I don't like this vote. PF has not been around. It's metagamey, but we can't help what we know. We know Two Face is active, and PF is not. Ergo, PF is not Two Face.

So this is a throwaway vote with little chance of being a hit, IMO.

We're grasping for a second candidate besides Commo, and this strikes me as a suspicious vote. So I am going to go here for now.

VOTE SNDVLS


How do we know two face has been active?

Tyrith 10-20-2011 04:22 PM

Well, when I say we can't know anything, it's not as much about roles as the nature of our voting data. We can't learn much from the votes because there aren't any connections between the wolves, except for one way between the disturbed citizens and Two Face. Most of the first two days are just chaff. We're still waiting for our starting point to start unraveling the wolves.

SnDvls 10-20-2011 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2553100)
I don't like this vote. PF has not been around. It's metagamey, but we can't help what we know. We know Two Face is active, and PF is not. Ergo, PF is not Two Face.

So this is a throwaway vote with little chance of being a hit, IMO.

We're grasping for a second candidate besides Commo, and this strikes me as a suspicious vote. So I am going to go here for now.

VOTE SNDVLS


cool works for me, but being all metagamey and all....remember I wasn't on night 1 and didn't vote day 1.....just metagamey and all :p

ntndeacon 10-20-2011 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2553104)
Hmm...while we have acknowledged that the conversion can have happened after the scan, isn't it a likely low percentage play to vote the guy that was scanned by Dawes as a non-supervillain?

Unless you're thinking he's done enough prior to that to be a possible Disturbed Citizen. Regardless, just curious as to your thinking on that.


Yes it is a low play. I really just forgot Tyrith was scanned. Regardless there is more chance that anyone is a disturbed citizen than a supervillian still. (I am assuming 2 supervillians and 3 disturbed citizens)

Unvote Tyrith

MrBug708 10-20-2011 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2553105)
Pretty sure that whole idea of Chief's is a dead end.


We don't have a lot of options at this point.

Time to make a move before class.

Vote Lathum

He's been just posting and running. His vote for Narc is rather curious as there hasnt been much discussion on him. I would have at least liked to have seen "I get a wolf vibe" from him as at least it's something.

The Jackal 10-20-2011 04:55 PM

All we know is that Tyrith isn't two-face, he could have been converted last night after mau's scan.

The Jackal 10-20-2011 04:55 PM

I'm hosting a dinner party so I'm going to be pretty much out of here until the deadline, if the people leave by then.

The Jackal 10-20-2011 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2553125)
All we know is that Tyrith isn't two-face, he could have been converted last night after mau's scan.


Okay CR did say that in response to NTN's vote, I was more looking at NTN's post.

I'm getting a better vibe from Tyrith today than the previous two days but that could be him playing well, not sure. I'll check later to see if there's any steam in this direction or if I need to change my vote.

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2553107)
How do we know two face has been active?


I see dead people (hoops). And I'm not willing to assume last night's non-kill is due to supervillains asleep at the wheel. Are you?

SnDvls 10-20-2011 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2553130)
I see dead people (hoops). And I'm not willing to assume last night's non-kill is due to supervillains asleep at the wheel. Are you?


yet you keep a vote on me? you were grasping at straws to try and put on a quick throwaway vote.

unvote packerfan

vote chief rum

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2553130)
I see dead people (hoops). And I'm not willing to assume last night's non-kill is due to supervillains asleep at the wheel. Are you?


I'm just saying it isn't certain he is active. On phone so can't check but packerfanatic was on day one so he could have just put in a kill on a typically strong player, was not on yesterday and no kill. just because we have had nk on an extended day 1 and no kk day two does not imply we have an active two face, later tonight will give us more, hopefully, but I can't say it is known twoface is active because of what we have seen thus far.

Zinto 10-20-2011 05:16 PM

I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls (Post 2553132)
yet you keep a vote on me? you were grasping at straws to try and put on a quick throwaway vote.

unvote packerfan

vote chief rum


Yes, I keep my vote on you because you chose to throw away your vote on a player who is quite unlikely to be Two Face, given his participation level. And because a runaway on Commo does us no good, and there isn't much to go on with the other candidates that are getting votes. IMO, your PF vote was the worst move among the candidates.

Doing some sort of vendetta vote on me doesn't really make you look better, either.

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2553133)
I'm just saying it isn't certain he is active. On phone so can't check but packerfanatic was on day one so he could have just put in a kill on a typically strong player, was not on yesterday and no kill. just because we have had nk on an extended day 1 and no kk day two does not imply we have an active two face, later tonight will give us more, hopefully, but I can't say it is known twoface is active because of what we have seen thus far.


No, PF came on after Day One (either Night One or early Day Two), and apologized for not getting a vote in and not being active. And then he missed the Day Two vote as well.

Sorry, I don't see how it's good gameplay to go against the logic here and presume Two Face has not been active. We have a dead villager and to assume last night was because of non-action is just plain foolish.

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto (Post 2553135)
I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.


Exactly.

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto (Post 2553135)
I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.


if this was directed at me I never voted packerfanatic, just laid out that we can't tell how active two face has been until he is dead.

saldana 10-20-2011 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2553107)
How do we know two face has been active?


cuz there was a night kill on night one?

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 05:44 PM

Dola, getting bad feelings towards chief, zinto and packerfanatic. Will look up more of their posts when I get home.

Chief Rum 10-20-2011 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2553153)
Dola, getting bad feelings towards chief, zinto and packerfanatic. Will look up more of their posts when I get home.


lol

saldana 10-20-2011 05:47 PM

so to summarize, we really dont know alot about alot of people at this point, me included according to one list, which is fair,as i had no time to post today from work.

for myself, i am always wary of people that have a theory about everyone...it always feels like throwing every player against a wall and hoping something sticks, and i see quite a bit of that today...just random accusations against various people, looking to see who they can get other people to follow on

i want to reread the day after i give my kids dinner before i figure out my vote

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2553150)
cuz there was a night kill on night one?


That does not imply activity in thread or game. the n1 kill order could have been put in monday for all we know. It is ludacris to try and gleen activity level of two face based on a night one kill and nothing happening day two. even then we can't tell how active in thread two face is. I'm starting to think two face is quiet and people that know that are trying to help take heat off.

CrimsonFox 10-20-2011 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 2553085)

Next in Queue: Chicago, Vote for Me


WINNING!

Tyrith 10-20-2011 06:25 PM

My vote is staying put unless someone gives me a compelling reason to move it.

saldana 10-20-2011 06:32 PM

while i am not a big fan of hit and run votes, i kind of like Lathum's vote on Narcizo...the easiest way to keep attention off yourself is by directing it on others, which is what narc is doing..

for now at least

vote narcizo

Danny 10-20-2011 06:59 PM

I really don't know where I am going with my vote. I was on Commo obviously, but not so sure now.

SnDvls 10-20-2011 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2553143)
Yes, I keep my vote on you because you chose to throw away your vote on a player who is quite unlikely to be Two Face, given his participation level. And because a runaway on Commo does us no good, and there isn't much to go on with the other candidates that are getting votes. IMO, your PF vote was the worst move among the candidates.

Doing some sort of vendetta vote on me doesn't really make you look better, either.


That logic fits me to a T

mauchow 10-20-2011 07:34 PM

I am still on the road. I will be back at deadline unfortunately. I will try to put a vote in before then. But it will be without reading up on what has happened today.

hoopsguy 10-20-2011 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 2552952)
And it really sucks that if Mau is the Seer, he can't be night killed, can't be converted, and can't be corrupted, while when I'm the Seer I get lynched because I could be lying, could be corrupt, or could be converted.

Not. Bitter. At. All.


This post is full of awesome.

Autumn 10-20-2011 07:43 PM

Tonight, on News at Ten, the hunt for the Two Faced Killer continues.

Tyrith - The Jackal
Commo_soldier - zinto, dzilla77, packerfanatic, mckerney, Narcizo
MrBug708 - Tyrith
Danny - commo
Narcizo - lathum, saldana
Sndvls - Chief Rum
Lathum - Mrbug708
Chief Rum - sndvls

ntndeacon 10-20-2011 07:53 PM

well I don't really like Narc as that second candidate. Unless I see a better option....

Vote Commo

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 08:03 PM

Back from work, got out a little later than I anticipated/hoped.

dzilla77 10-20-2011 08:03 PM

Well, today's vote isn't going to tell us much, even if Commo is a disturbed villager or 2-face.

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 08:04 PM

Glad to see so much conversation and so many people flying UTR / doing hit and run votes.

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 08:07 PM

Mine as well come out now since I don't think I'll be convincing anyone otherwise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2551561)
And I actually got confused, I AM BATMAN!!!


This.

Also, night one I had put in to do my first check on hoops, but switched a little before deadline because CF asked me if he would have my vote. I thought that meant he was the wannabe since that role knew who I was. That is part of the reason I voted CF yesterday.

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 08:08 PM

Unvote Danny

Not sure who I'd like to vote, but earlier today I was thinking Chief, Zinto, Narc, and Packers.

Commo_Soldier 10-20-2011 08:09 PM

Triple dola, Also I don't think it is wise for the BG to protect me tonight. I'm done now that I've revealed and can't do any more good staying alive.

DaddyTorgo 10-20-2011 08:13 PM

Okay...Football Manager is going...what's up with WW?

Danny 10-20-2011 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2553263)
Mine as well come out now since I don't think I'll be convincing anyone otherwise.



This.

Also, night one I had put in to do my first check on hoops, but switched a little before deadline because CF asked me if he would have my vote. I thought that meant he was the wannabe since that role knew who I was. That is part of the reason I voted CF yesterday.


Well we're doing a heck of a job so far this game. Your reactions toward me had me leaning the other way of what I felt yesterday, so I think you are telling the truth. I still don't know where I am going with my vote though.

MrBug708 10-20-2011 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2553263)
Mine as well come out now since I don't think I'll be convincing anyone otherwise.



This.

Also, night one I had put in to do my first check on hoops, but switched a little before deadline because CF asked me if he would have my vote. I thought that meant he was the wannabe since that role knew who I was. That is part of the reason I voted CF yesterday.


On ny phone but didn't the wanabee die before that?


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