Early vote on a known villager day 1, check. Putting EF in the lead when the wolves knew PB hadn't even switched to EF yet, check. And then it was merely those two things combined with the tone of some of his few posts that struck me oddly.

I had my vote on him all day because I felt he was a better option than PB or Telle, but obviously no one agreed.

Well, here's my morning check-in, and I see nothing much going on. I'll probably be back after night deadline or perhaps briefly on Sunday.

I think I've made clear who my suspects are, in case something happens to me. My trust list in order of trust is

Barkeep
Abe
Dubb
Poli
PackerFan
MartinD

how I am upset?

I mearly said I don't belong on your list. It's not like I was PBing you.

Good stuff, Lathum :lol:

OK, so how do you significantly differentiate between PF and MartinD?

Early vote on a known villager Day 1 - check
Putting EF in the lead when the wolves knew PB hadn't even switch to EF yet - check
Tone of posts - not sure, but neither of those guys have many posts

Yet you are after PF and not MartinD. I see these guys as nearly equal on my trust/distrust lists but you seem to have a big gap between them. Why? Can you clarify on the "tone of posts" which seems like it must be the difference?

Can you build your case for Poli as trusted?

and why I'm not?

I thik my day 1 vote on EF was pretty telling.

I need to go back and look at Martin's voting then if it's that similar - I don't even recall him posting, whereas I got bad feelings about some of PF's posts. I'll go back and find them sometime this weekend. So I imagine they're about equal on my distrust scale.

Can you highlight posts by PF that concerned you?

My trust at this point is very heavily regulated by voting records, since we've had meaningful votes on the first two days and at this point can do pretty complete analysis on them.

Yes, like I said I'll go back and find em when I have a bit of time to spare. No rush, right?

Dola (think I can slip that in over weekend),

I'll definitely listen to people's "vibe" if/when they link the posts that created the vibe so I can try to interpret it as well. But it is going to be a fairly tough sell to convince me to vote for someone with a "good" voting record versus a "bad" voting record. I understand the whole "wolves know who the wolves/villagers are" and manage accordingly, but they had one of their own on the chopping block each of the first two days and that person was probably salvageable both times around if they dug in.

Damn, not even on weekends (dola)!

No rush - I'm out most of the afternoon to help run my kid's birthday party.

What is our next deadline?

Sunday at 10 eastern.

I speak for everyone: Run it.

Alright, assuming there are no protests I will run everything in the next few hours.

I would love to see it processed earlier. Unless I'm dying; then let me know so I can blurt out every random thought over the next hour or two.

Alright, I will process it in about 30 minutes, maybe sooner.

What he said.

They took barkeep? That's odd.

Although barkeep apparently was one cool guy, I don't know how his role was helpful to us.

Yeah, his role was a risk/reward vanilla villager basically. If he was able to nullify people who hated him by getting them to vote and then even unvote him, it would of been helpful to avoid a lynch, but for the most part, it was fancy vanilla villager type role.

Plus if he was the leading vote getter and this ability saved him, he would have ended up being cleared. So, this could have served as a self scan of sorts too.

About the only case I could have made for BK being a lynch was that he was the most trusted person by Autumn. I have no idea why that would have been the case but I did not want to press that until today.

Abe - I do not see anything within BK's role description that would have suggested any association with you. Can you say now why in the world you would have felt so confident about BK, to the point where you suggested "lynch me instead of him"?

My guess is I was silenced because the wolves were a little freaked out by the way I voted the other day.

I am wondering right now about Autumn, one because I'm not on his list and two because the person he trusted most is dead now, it's almost like some kind of move on his part. Put out a trust list then kill someone on it to make it look like he is a villager with a good read,

The lynch me instead of him definitely concerned/confused me.

No, the GM Told me I was already on the line with my first comment, I cannot expand on it.

Hmm.

Anyway, I don't understand "silencing" Lathum, either.

The problem is that I don't see a role that would dovetail with this role that you would suggest. Nor do I see where it would have been a problem where you read BK's initial post and said "hmm, that sounds at least in the same realm as my role - I can believe that". So the fact that you are now clamming up, and that your voting hasn't exactly been good, makes it pretty hard for me to trust you no matter what Autumn may be suggesting with his list. Especially since BK did not vouch you back.

Okay, it has been clarified by the GM that I can say it is due to my role, and that's as far as I can go.

OK, so let me see if I can push the boundaries a little bit here - why do you think that BK was not willing to cross-vouch you back on Day 1 or at any other point in the first three days?

Ask yourself this question, "Why SHOULD he be able to?"

I can think of a lot more ways that I would know and BK wouldn't, than we both know.

Quick thought on this - I was overlooking something really obvious when I typed this. Abe's vouch for BK, as well as asking for us to vote him out before BK, suggested that they might somehow be lovers so the wolves were probably hunting for a 2:1 here. That probably makes the most sense for the kill. Any kind of trust was probably just a bonus for them, right up until the point that they only killed one person.

That said, this theory only works if Abe is a villager. If Abe = wolf then it almost has to be a "trust/no BG likely to block" play.

BTW, if I were a wolf trying to get way out in front, and I mean WAY out with my comments, I would be a better voter. I'd want to have some value to the village so that they would not want to vote me out.

Besides, have you ever known me, even one time, to go out in front like this as a wolf? Nope. I am not comfortable in the spotlight as a wolf, never have been. Especially not in a game with 21 players, and it would be easy to hide in the shadows. That's bad strategy, as can be seen with all of the attention to come my way.

I tried to create a Circle of Trust, and now that one is dead. I can do no more, I can say no more.

So, taking another direction - was your trust predicated by his first post describing his role or was the trust already there before that point? I can quote the post in question if you need me to do so.

Also, why did you think it would be better to have you die before BK, given that his death did not have any negative impact on you?

I'm asking the questions because you are in the thread on a Saturday night (what, no date?) and because I'm hoping that you can widen the boundaries of communication that seem to be in place by responding to direct questions.

I already told you, it had to do with my role. I cannot tell more.

Lerriuqs, don't be afraid to chime in at any point.

Abe, does post #1940 answer post #1938, #1939, or both?

Both, Mr Specific

Sorry guys, I'm having enough trouble keeping up with the many, many posts...

I've been having trouble really figuring out what's going on. I'm not used to games this big. Hence, I watch...I'll try to get more in here soon.

The one thing I really don't get is how any of my votes is all that suspicious - Day 1, I voted for Pass early and didn't come back till after the deadline, I couldn't switch if I had wanted to. Day 2, I voted PB as much to keep the race close to allow for vote changes. I didn't see any reason to switch at the end. Some said it looked bad for those of us who didn't, but if those that did switch hadn't, it wouldn't have. So I don't really get that logic. There was no real reason to vote for one over the other until the fact that he was a wolf came out. Day 3, I tried to bring a third choice close cause I didn't like the first two and then wasn't back for the deadline to consider any changes.

I don't think there's much of anything to go that would raise any suspicion. I'm a villager. I have no idea who the wolves are and haven't had enough time to really delve into any of my suspicions. As such I don't really want to voice them quite yet.

Don;t worrry, I'm having trouble too

Apparently not as much as the rest of us.

I think there needs to be discussion on the wolves choice to criticize Lathum today. Would they criticize one of their own again after what happened to EF? I would lean towards no, but I have to wonder what type of villager role would have required Lathum to vote for PB on day 2 to activate(I believe this is the gist of what he was trying to say. I'm still highly confused by Lathum's actions on day 2.)

I think they are worried my role has some sort of added bonus when it comes to the vote.

Lathum, why would they think that? What could have emerged over the first three days to suggest a bonus on vote, given that we have not seen it reflected in the voting totals and did not see BK's role writeup until the end of Night 3?

I dunno, just trying to figure out why they would vote me.

I think they may be freaked out about the way I voted the other day and have claimed because of that I triggered a mechanic for my role.

Maybe they are worried about that mechanic?

I was trying to see how that conclusion could have been drawn as well and going through Lathum's post I don't even see how it is plausable.

first 3 days votes

you asked why I was targeted, I'm trying to come up with reasons.

What's your theory?

I'd like Danny to correct my day 1 vote officially at some point.

Wait a second, I'm on both Abe and Telle. That's kind of cool.

yeah, Saldana is also listed as votinf himself day 3 which I am pretty sure is incorrect.

I'm just taking from Dannys counts, I don't have time to comb through the thread and correct mistakes.

I don't have one.

It was corrected on day one, the vote count right before the results has you on Telle only. Lathum just took an earlier post to quote.

I fixed Saldana voting himself, it was supposed to read Chief Rum

Lathum, you're up in historical draft :)

QFH

OK, based on the voting from the first 3 days these are the people who don't look great IMO.

1. Claphamsa- Pretty much has steered clear, 1 vote on PF 2 on Telle

4. The Jackal-Voted PB every day, including a late vote Day 3

5. Abe- has voted a villager each day, plus made a cryptic comment about BK and their roles.

13. Lerriuqs- voted 1 villager and 2 unknowns. Voted Pass day 1 who I believe to be good based on his late vote for EF Day 2.

18. Telle- Voted PB all 3 days

21. Saldana- 2 throw away votes and a Telle vote day 3, has also steered clear.

can I edit my post to indicate that?

I would actually take out Abe at this point (for today, at the very least) as I suspect the wolves were going for a 2:1 play on BK hoping that Abe would die as well.

I do not think the kill on BK was predicated by what he had done in the thread over the first three days.

fair enough.

I think of all of these The Jackal looks worst and would probably get my vote today if I had one.

Yes, feel free to edit the posts to correct the errors I made.

I think if you go by intent Pass should added to this list as he intended to unvote EF on day three. He actually voted Telle and forgot to unvote EF. He voted NTN, attempted to late switch off EF onto Telle and then voted PB. Not the best record there either.

Should be day 2.

didn't realize that.

That's true.

FYI - i'm copying 16gb of stuff off my HD and then completely wiping them both and reinstalling windows tonight in preparation for shipping my computer in for service, so that's where I've been today.

running linux off a bootable CD right now while stuff copies, but just about ready to start the wiping process

FYI, tomorrow's mah birthday. I may be single but I don't plan on spending my afternoon and evening at home. I'll try to get a vote in at some point. I could probably just vote now, but I'm hoping someone comes forth with something before I do so.

Oh wow, you really shouldn't have said that though, isn't it some sort of tradition to lynch the birthday boy?

You can die in a fire. FYI.

Just buzzed in and caught up on results. I'll try to read and respond tomorrow. Quick answer, someone asked why I had Barkeep and Abe so high on my trust list and I can now say that I was almost certain that they had a lovers-type role. I'll have to reevaluate Abe now that I see that that's not the case.

I don't know if I would call it a tradition, but we could certainly start one here and now. :p

Jackal, did you ever come up with those posts on PF that weirded you out? Or get a chance to look at MartinD, who had a similar profile to PF?

OK, I've seen two other people (Lathum and Autumn) publish lists to look at for today. I'll add mine as well.

Lathum's list - Clap, Jackal, Abe, Lerriuqs, Telle, Saldana
Autumn's list - Telle, Jackal, Lerriuqs
Hoop's list - Clap, Jackal, Saldana, Telle, Lerriuqs, Poli, Pass, DT

I'll note that if someone is not on my rather large list (about 50% of the people in the game) then I'm not really going to consider a vote for them.

Autumn's list of three is a subset of both my list and Lathum's list and is probably a good place to start.

Of those three, I already tried to vote for Jackal on Day 3 but saw he wasn't going to get there so moved to another candidate to try and "save" PB, who I strongly felt had been scanned by the seer. He is probably my first choice.

Lerriuqs is probably second and Telle third, but there isn't a ton of difference between those candidates for me based on voting record. At this point I think Telle is certainly making herself available and posting thoughts much more than Lerriuqs, which should count for something.

I also think the idea that Telle was trying to get a 3rd candidate into the D1 vote to "save" EF doesn't hold up all that well, based on past games that we have played. I believe that her NTN stance represented her true thoughts on the matter and it was not a smokescreen to help a wolf. So that also has diminished her as a candidate for me over the past couple of days, although her voting record is one of the worst in the game.

[shakes head at hoops]I still think a vote for Telle is the right move. I could get behind a jackal vote now, though, after the "stunt" (or whatever you call it) he pulled.

Honestly, I don't know what I have to do to please you, hoops. Your argument for me is I didn't vote Eaglefan out early enough? Seriously, is that it? I'm about to readd you to my rolls eyes list. As a matter of fact, if Eagle hadn't dropped a fake reveal on us at then end my vote would have stayed on Telle (it was on Telle, right?). Since we were told we couldn't reveal if we didn't have a listed role, I felt he was acting out of desperation and wanted to help keep that coffin shut. After the last game, all know how well the coffin stays shut, don't we DANNY?

It's my pet theory, after seeing BK's role, that we have someone here who's vote counts as two votes...behind the scenes, of course. Clearly I can't prove that as of yet, but I imagine with us all having roles, and most of them unlisted, that Danny broke out every conceivable idea he had for a role...including Barkeep's.

The lover's/brothers/whatever roles were definitely an option for abe/barkeep. My thought on that is abe may have been able to maybe find someone to attach to...and that he chose barkeep and found out his role. I don't know...it's got to be something.
[/shakes head]

If we don't hear anything concrete by lunchtime, I plan on placing my vote on Telle or Jackal.

In fact, I'll go ahead and

VOTE TELLE

Vote subject to move based on information.

Poli waves at Telle.

All right, I think people were asking me A) why Poli was on my trust list, and B) why Lathum was not. First let me make clear that I don't have anyone on a "definitely trust" list, just a "looks better than average".

A) I have Poli on my trust list I believe simply because of his vote on EF day two which put the nail ni the coffin. Looking at his other votes, he's also voted Telle twice, who I strongly suspect.

B) Lathum, while you did have a good vote on EF Day 1, which I noted in my suspect list, your activity on Day 2 particularly, followed by a strong vote on PB day three is enough to counter that in my mind. I don't have you on a suspect list, but it seems very possible that you're an independent faction, at least, given your strange day 2 activity.

TheJackal claimed an independent status of sorts at the beginning of the game. While that certainly could be faked that makes me lean away from him out of my three slightly. Independents could be trouble, but if they count as a villager I don't want to lynch them. I'm likely to therefore go Lerriuqs or Telle.

I'm not sure I have a trust list at this point. I was suspicious of Abe until Barkeep's death, so I suppose that garners some trust from me. I haven't been keeping track of voting records, I guess I should be. Maybe that would help me in developing some trust.

I do have a nontrust list, starting with Telle, moving to Jackal, and honestly, maybe a little hoopsguy in there. I worry that he's trying to throw mud at a bunch of us and hope that something sticks.

Not that I'm angry, hoops, it's just the way I feel.

FWIW with the lovers brothers role, its usualy lynch one lynch them both!

Yeah, usually being the key word. A few games back Danny and I were in that position. His death did not bring upon mine.

well ok :)

We have 16 players still in the game, right? I think the breakdown is 12/4 and more like 11/5 with the sympathizer out there still. If the needlings can convert someone, God help us.

I think it's vitally important for us to get another one of these right.

i've thought that about hoops for a couple days now - that he's just flinging a lot of stuff out there trying to sow confusion and put out as many candidates as possible.

It worries me that he seems to be defending Telle. I just don't trust Telle at all at this point and yet he seems certain that Telle is good. One of us has to be wrong.

Okay, I have to get some work done. I'll be back.

She works hard for the money!

Wait -- EF made a fake reveal? When was that?

Post 1306

Poli, DT - do you guys think that there was a wolf who voted for EF on the day that he and PB were in the run-off?

Both of you guys seem to take umbrage to the suggestion that your votes for EF don't automatically clear you.

However, if you believe "yes, at least one wolf voted with EF" then who would you speculate might be that wolf? There should, at the very least, be some separation of trust levels that you place on those people who had good votes on Day 2.

As far as having me on your radar, by all means go ahead. But if you think that I'm "flinging stuff out there" then please come with your analysis so the rest of us can benefit from it.

I don't think I'm taking umbrage at it. I just think that I contributed good analysis to that situation that is being glossed-over.

DT - so can you contribute good analysis on the current state of affairs?

i can try. i haven't been paying much attention since i started fussing with my laptop on saturday morning.

over the course of the weekend i purchased one external HD (seagate 1tb - DON'T BUY), tried to use it and kept having errors with it and with my backup program, returned it yesterday and got a western digital mybook (great drive so far), swapped out a working HD for a dead drive and booted off a linux cd to copy 16gb of data yesterday onto the external drive, and then reformatted the partition on the dead drive and found it was still working (i think), and reinstalled windows last night as i was sleeping. now all i have to do is go home and check to see that the data still exists on the external HD and then delete the partition and reformat the 2nd HD and pack my laptop up to ship it back to HP to fix the defect in the plastic case that has caused a split all the way down the side of the screen.

will try to take a look at the day 2 votes and give my thoughts here this afternoon