Anybody care to follow? If you prefer mau, I can switch.

Hey coffee.. you gonna move or what?!

I was going to go mau since he had 0 posts but it's kind of a dart throw either way

unvote

vote brit

Clock is ticking!

I can ... ordinarily moving a vote to an inactive is a get out of jail free card for voting records.

unvote

vote britrock

This game is far from ordinary though.

Damnit, now is not the time for valid points that lead to me dying! :)

If brit turns out to be a villager we just put telle back on the block tomorrow.

Inactives do us no good.. i said that early. No issue for me.

I also don't love CF's vote that didn't count followed up by nothing

HOw are we gonna know? That's the problem.

Good point....

BOOM

Well if the priest reveals Day 2 then we'll know. Otherwise, yeah...

priest would have to reveal I guess, which a couple people have suggested, assuming they're still alive and agree with that idea

I count 4 on brit, Jag.

Jackal switched to brit as well.

Darn autumn.. we hardly knew ye. Need to reread D1.

:popcorn:

So after staying up way later than I should have trying to figure this out, my system now produces this lovely report for Day 1:

4 britrock88 - Telle (101),The Jackal (105),RendeR (108),timmae (109)
2 Telle - Coffee Warlord (25),CrimsonFox (37)
1 The Jackal - Autumn (41)

And here's all of the votes (including unvotes) for Day 1:

Coffee Warlord voted for Telle in post 25
Telle voted for Coffee Warlord in post 29
timmae voted for Telle in post 35
CrimsonFox voted for Telle in post 37
Autumn voted for The Jackal in post 41
The Jackal voted for RendeR in post 48
timmae UNVOTED in post 59
timmae voted for RendeR in post 59
Telle UNVOTED in post 87
Telle voted for RendeR in post 87
RendeR voted for Telle in post 88
Telle UNVOTED in post 101
Telle voted for britrock88 in post 101
The Jackal UNVOTED in post 105
The Jackal voted for britrock88 in post 105
RendeR UNVOTED in post 108
RendeR voted for britrock88 in post 108
timmae UNVOTED in post 109
timmae voted for britrock88 in post 109

Sweet day 1 review

Obviously the werewolf world, and just the world in general, needs more data geeks! Nice work!

Ok, read back through Autumn to see if the wolves may have picked up on anything he said to think he may be our seer. He only had 3 posts D1 and this one jumps out. I could absolutely have been his N0 peek. Or they could have just decided to roll the dice and take out an experienced player.

The wolves certainly reread Autumn's posts since he was the NK. This would have stuck out in their minds so I don't think they'd be bold enough to pull that play again. More than likely the wolves stayed away from direct votes on each other as it would have been discounted by the previous play. I think a pile on would be more indicative of wolves. There may be a wolf or 2 in this batch;

4 britrock88 - Telle (101). The Jackal (105), RendeR (108), timmae (109)

ok, last post for a bit. Why did Autumn place an initial throw away vote on Jackal and then leave it there all day? To fly under the radar as a special villager?? Seems kinda weird.

Okay ... Telle. Again.

On one hand, I get it. Complete survival move, and got a last second push to vote someone else.

On the other hand, I hate that it was such a simple, easy target.

On the other other hand, she herself points out a few hours prior that she believes the wolves are highly unlikely to be either of the inactives. (I personally don't buy into that all that much - I've played many games where a wolf was an idle one, but it's a reasonable theory.) So she's saving herself as a vanilla villager by moving to the vote to someone else she believes it a villager ... and thusly upping the odds of hitting a role.

On the other other other hand, idle players are a pain in the ass.

On the other other other OTHER hand, it was a day 1 vote. Shit happens.

This bugs me, though.

:popcorn:

:waves at EF:

Well, nice knowing you all ;)

Well that analysis is rather convenient for you since it paints you as being a villager.

And you weren't even in the recent game when I was so against voting out an inactive as a default vote because of how easy that makes it for wolves to hide their votes. I was definitely a hypocrite yesterday. I didn't even think about the fact that moving the vote off me to an inactive ups the odds of hitting a roled villager. I had been hoping that there would be more conversation in that last hour before deadline and votes would move around and maybe I could talk you all into not killing me.. and when that didn't happen I kind of panicked.

Note I haven't voted yet. :) See hands ... 1, 4, and 5.

Hi all. I'm here.

I'll be checking the thread through the day though this evening will be questionable around deadline; just tonight. I'll definitely check in as soon as I can afterwards (if I do indeed miss the deadline; but last week took beyond 10).

I don't want to jump in being skeptical of Telle but CW's post is what I was thinking last night (as an outsider at that point) as I saw what happened.

Maybe we need to pressure that a bit to see what shakes out.

Hi timmae

I know this may seem like it is becoming a standard vote but...

vote Telle[

Not exactly unexpected, even if you didn't have some weird obsession with voting for me :)

I gave what explanation I could above, but please feel free to ask me any questions you have.

No questions. At this point it is a gut play to see what happens this time.

With no role reveals it would make that jump to inactive more of a wolf play that a villager play as it means no one but the wolves know if it was a good move or not. A vanilla villager would rather take one for the team than jump to an unknown in a small game. A roled villager would want to jump the vote off themselves but the wolves would take notice of that and likely want to eliminate that person. With them not going after you it opens up more questions.

so, looking at things from last night, it seems to me more likely that Telle is telling the truth and made a risky (i.e. could be nailing an inactive seer unintentionally) VV decision, and I can't fault self preservation even if you may want to genuinely make the sacrifice as a VV in this small a game. Plus, it's nice having people alive that participate!

that said it's not out of the realm of possibility that she was slow playing it -- render had less to be concerned about because of the oldest vote being on telle, but I likely would have expected an earlier fake reveal from a wolf on the chopping block, rather than waiting until the last 5-10 minutes to plea for pushing onto someone inactive. I see both sides of things, but at the moment I lean towards VV naivety.

Jackal!!!! Let's Go Flyers!!!!

HELL YES

I'm not totally against Telle being a candidate today, but who else are we looking at? Render because he may not have felt threatened enough to be pushed over the edge? Someone like CF for the vote that didn't count and no other contribution? I know I was the other person in the voting because of Autumn's early vote and then disappearance. At the moment, as I said last night, I would really like to hear more from CF, an explanation of his faulty vote and just his take on things in general thus far

vote CrimsonFox

I'm ok discussing these 2 for a while today...

Coffee Warlord - I do not like his game so far. He is around but in a jokey and friendly way. Even his pushing is done with a jokey attitude. Seems like he doesn't want to make too many enemies. He's on my bad guy list.
CrimsonFox - 2 total posts... one a meta vote and then a vote that was wrongly formatted. Way too obvious for a sorc callout to his wolves but could be a wolfy.

Let's see what a two horse race gets us..

vote crimson fox

Ha. Right as I was about to bring you up for last night.

Here's my concern with Timmae. He goes from an attitude of "Better we kill Telle than possibly kill a special villager", to jumping on the inactive train in a matter of moments. Bit weird for my taste.

Ok, let's try this then. To my trusted allies... Tell me why it isn't a coffee/crimson wolfy duo. Seems plausible to me but game theory is not my strong suit.

I would be curious about CW as well. Seemed like a somewhat in depth attempt to bring Telle to the forefront and then a more casual oh well at the end. Almost non-committal commitment.

I barely noticed CF, hard to call there as he was quiet for a while last game too.

Without knowing the true result of yesterday's vote who really knows if it was good or not.

We know Autumn was good. We have no idea about brit, even if he was a wolf the other wolf submits a kill so no clue for us.

Sorry, just thinking out loud.

Even if brit was a wolf it doesn't clear Telle because she wouldn't want to be lynched and leave an inactive lone remaining wolf.

Sorry, more out loud thinking.

Intentionally so. It's non-committal because it's based on someone doing what they can to avoid a Day 1 lynch. It was very much worth discussion and still is, and I think the activity right at the end there is still very much interesting to look into. BUT, there's plenty of human nature/logic holes in the entire argument.

I'm aiming for discussion, not a hard accusation at this point.

Between Render and Telle I'd be more suspicious of render. Telle's been engaged with the vote counts and I agree was resigned to take the lynch until the last 5 minutes. Render knew the situation suited him ok. However, render did push autumn's read of my D1 so I give him credit for that. If he was a wolf then he wouldn't have drawn attention to that read as much as he'd want to keep the villager-villager info to himself and his partner. Unless they didn't know autumn was our non-confirmed seer at that point.

This one piqued my interest. Keep this in mind in case either CF or EF flip wolf.

It's really hard to say anything about CF at this point. Is it a wolf hiding in inactivity or are we picking off inactive villagers? Being this was my first game in awhile, I definitely forgot about it for a few hours yesterday while I was working, but it's been a long time since CF's last post

Honestly not sure what to make of CW, I see what you're saying about the jokey vibe, but it also feels like what I recall of CW's playstyle.

Also, not sure anyone is worthy of being a "trusted ally" at this point with 0 trusted reveals/trusted information :D

On that note, I'm curious about the posited priest reveal today. But something we didn't discuss yesterday / that I need to think through -- does the priest revealing brit's role help the village or wolves more? I guess it could depend on what the role is. In any event, it's good that they (if they are still alive) didn't reveal early, so we get more posts from people for consideration as we move to the next couple days

What does that mean? Am I missing a reveal somewhere?

Originally I thought they should come out D2 but that was if our seer was still around. Now I am thinking D3 may be the better play if autumn was in fact the seer. Worst case for us in that scenario is that it is a 1 in 3 chance they hit the priest with the NK. That is if they know their sorc and we mislynch tonight. Worst case overall is that we could have off'd our inactive priest and then the wolfies NK'd our seer.

I am guessing there was a reason they went after Autumn with the NK. His hint at a N0 peek would have been me in his post. Is autumn one to leave hints in that scenario?

I must be missing something. I don't see a hint at an N0 peek. Maybe I am completely blind here.

This worries me that Autumn was the seer and you are the sorcerer (think that is the role's name). I am hoping that is not the case. If it is, we're probably screwed (unless britt was a wolf than we still have a puncher's chance).

More thinking out loud.

Your day one actions don't show that, so that was just me thinking out loud.

Here is what I am thinking was a peek. At least until the sorc false claims and draws out our true seer. Anything is possible in a game with no reveals.

I can't for the life of me see any hint of it either.

Per the rules, N0 Sorc and Seer scans are guaranteed "Not Seer/Not Wolf". So highly doubt it's Seer/Sorc, with that in mind.

That is good, the eliminates my bad theory. I misread that the sorcerer N0 would just be not seer, so that wouldn't be the case. Maybe a signal to the wolves that he is the sorcerer though, so they don't come after him?

Sorry, more thinking out loud. Just want to get some conversation going.

We may want to look at RendeR; after all, he has been pretty inactive... :D

j/k, couldn't resist

Jackal, what time is that Penguins game.... oh yeah... :)

Though I thought they were going to end up lucking into the top pick after that.

again I am wishing for a fireball reaction FOFC

starting to lose hope that CF is going to show up

Look who's in the thread now.

what's to hear? I sign up for games and forget about them :(

sorry

We have a CF sighting!!!

the CF bat signal worked perfectly

I am going to get something to eat. Will be on for a little while after that but I will be off from around 7:15 through close to the deadline (potentially after). Tonight is the only night that will happen. I may try to keep another window open so I can check in during down time.

Here's where I'm at right now on Timmae.






I believe he went Telle -> Render -> Brit yesterday, for reference.

So we go from "Kill inactives" ... To being okay with voting Telle ... To back to jumping on the inactive train ... To today, deciding that Autumn is the seer (who was "Neutral" to him yesterday) and RNG selected him as the N0 scan.

That's just kinda all over the place, with some analysis thrown in that I just
mostly don't get.

Be nice to see some more people offer some views, but for now, I'm going here.

Vote timmae

Now we are getting discussion! Keep at it coffee. Who would be my partner?!!

what's this crap about my vote not counting?

I <3 you jackal

vote crimsonfox

hoopsguy, obviously!

Not a clue, we've have a whole day and a half to look at people. If I could figure out 2 wolves in a single day, in a game where roles aren't revealed at death, I'd be night 1 killed in every game I played. :)

I think you've been see-sawing a lot (as much as "a lot" applies to what, 24 hours), I think your analyses have been bizarre, and for me right now, it's you, Telle, or CF, who's just apparently lost his mind. And it was time to throw a vote down.

haha very helpful CF thank you

you are welcome

i can't argue with anything you have to say to me

i suck at this game and it depresses me

or maybe it's just life

You didn't unvote i think. But I am all over the place so whatevs.

yes you did not unvote before voting for the 2nd time

i forgot that was a thing. literally no other site uses that
sorry telle

i didn't want to screw her again with a vote like that and it seems i did anyway

well read over the thread and give us your genuine thoughts then, assuming they are villager thoughts and not wolf or sorcerer thoughts ;)

not being able to be active doesnt = sucking at this game, and we've mostly all been in a place where we forgot about it or got distracted by life commitments, but you can still contribute here!

render, you awake yet?

2 CrimsonFox - The Jackal (152), timmae (155)
1 Telle - EagleFan (146)
1 timmae - Coffee Warlord (186)