Unwarranted vote switches without explanation strike me as being off. Why did you switch from Render to henry?

Chief, you know better... I have my reasons. Let's see how this unfolds. Lot's to learn yet. Let's just say my vote on RendeR was going nowhere for a bit and the other voter on him was just an initial throw in vote by his better half. Some movement after jumping off RendeR may be telling. Maybe not. We'll see.

I'll let it sit for now, but that's not really an explanation. It's also a second vote on someone whose first vote came from Autumn, who basically said he picked henry out of a hat.

In any case, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for the moment. But you should also know how terrible it looks to drop a vote switch with no explanation.

The only people that know anything right now are baddies.

I don't know either, but I do know it's that much scarier when you capitalize it into being a Killing Machine. :D

Some interesting roles in here. Everything's a little confusing because of the reversal of villager/wolf dynamics.

The wolf roles have either been explained or make sense enough. As for the baddies...

The Vengeful Villager (EF, not sure how you missed that opportunity ;) ) appears to be a brutal. The Vanilla Villager is ... vanilla. There is no hint as to what the Villagers' actions might include.

The Count has a conversion mechanic, like a cult leader. Any converted wolf (cultist) would appear to be super-powerful. No clues as to any ability a Vanilla Vampire might have.

So, reading through this, I'm not sure how powerful the bad-guy teams are...

So you're one of the ones who has voted for the no-show, which is almost a meaningless vote, and yet you're actively criticizing someone else's vote that doesn't have much of an explanation behind it. Being overly suspicious like that can be an attempt from a "bad guy" to steer the voting away from another "bad guy".

It provides us with information about a role we may not end up having (if he has one) and removes an inactive player from the game.

You know there is good reason for the vote. Plenty more sound than any other reason I have seen so far. Or no reason at all, like you and timmae.

Ok... getting a bit late as I am away from my phone for a few hours. Here are my thoughts in case I am not here to defend myself tomorrow (forgive my typing as I am on my phone);

Likes - autumn as his entrance and subsequent posts seemed truthful, henry joking about wolf but good guy, britrock seemed fine with being a contrarian, render sounding ok

Not a huge fan of; Chief not diggin into to much detail, telle exposing she is vanilla wolf so that baddies can hunt elsewhere

Neither good nor bad; goldeneagle hasnt provide much, lonestar hasnt said much. Bhlloy has nothing.

Baddies at this point... chief, telle, GE and lonestar. Please note that this could be way off and I could look like an idiot real soon.

Darnit... maybe swap chief and henry now. Arghh.. how I hate thee game!

I probably will leave my vote on henry. We do not want.to vote off a no show tonight. Tomorrow night is a different story.

VOTE bhlloy

I just can't vote for anyone else at this point. I think some of the movement and early votes can still provide us information down the road.

I am willing to change this vote if he checks in.

Plus, you never know, we may get really lucky and hit a villager.

A runaway vote on bhlloy doesn't give us much voting information to go on. And I would prefer to have that info over what we gain from killing off an inactive player.


UNVOTE BHLLOY


VOTE HENRY296

Unless my math is off, that creates a tie.

That's what I've been saying. And it's not unlikely that EF will figure out what to do with an inactive player so that we don't waste game time doing it ourselves.

And yes, Chief's vote switch to henry296 creates a tie. Three have not yet voted: LoneStarGirl, RendeR, and bhlloy (of course)

I'm going to agree with this thought process for the time being. Its the best we have to work with without losing someone whose at least here and active.


VOTE BHLLOY

Sorry just getting back on and catching up ...

I assume that though the bad guys are villagers in this game, they still will have a night kill. It would be quite a change if there is no regular bad guy kill in the game, or that the vampire has one but the villagers don't.

Killing machine ... no real idea. Two kills in a game this small seems like it would be too powerful. Maybe can get a kill even if the person is protected?

i don't have a vote count but sounds like bhlloy is in the lead by one vote. Has anyone not voted yet?

Lonestargirl and bhlloy

That would be an interesting twist that villagers couldn’t make night kills but had some other kill mechanisms.

actually rereading, sounds like LSG and bhlloy (of course, duh) are missing votes still.

I don't like to vote no-shows for the reason Telle and now Chief have said, that it limits our information and gives an easy vote to the bad guys if the no-show is not one of them. So I will stick on Henry for now. Henry didn't do himself any favors by showing up and voting bhlloy without explanation. Maybe just saving his neck, but you still need to put the work in.

Yes, bhlloy is in the lead by one vote with henry296 in second. LoneStarGirl and bhlloy have not yet voted, and I have the lone vote on RendeR.

I'm thinking of switching to henry296 since obviously nobody else is interested in voting for RendeR, but that puts us into a tie, at least temporarily.

It seems like LSG is waiting to vote which is note worthy.

Do you have an argument for voting RendeR?

I thought I voted earlier but I forgot the whole bold thing

Vote bhlloy

I made that vote for the same reason I stated earlier. Essentially right now we really have a game with 9 people and if we vote someone else off besides bhlloy it is down to 8. Since he can't post to provide information, I think we should kill him to get information.

I don't see an earlier vote post from you, just one with you saying you will vote him later if he doesn't show up.

She's married to me....nuff said LOL

Starting to question that decision. It's ruining werewolf for me :)

I'm really against voting for the inactive player, for reasons I've stated multiple times. In an effort to prevent him from being the lynch, I'm moving my vote to henry296. This still leaves bhlloy in the lead with one vote, though.

unvote RendeR

vote henry296

so its even again.....

err no bhlloy is ahead 5-4 right?

I don't think so. I think bhlloy has 5 votes and henry 4

Correct. And I really question the thinking of the five people with votes on bhlloy. I've already explained my thoughts on that extensively. If bhlloy comes back being a good guy, his voters are doubly suspect for not only voting for a good guy but also defying logic.

How is it logical go go after and lower the number of active players in such a small game when an inactive still gives us information but doesn't really hurt anything?

We at least learn what isn't in the game without damaging the active player base on, lets face it, a pretty shot in the dark day 1 vote.

lowering our available sources of input on day 1 is the illogical choice here.

bhlloy 2, henry 2, render 1


bhlloy 3, henry 2, render 1


bhlloy 4, henry 2, render 1


bhlloy 3, henry 3, render 1


bhlloy 4, henry 3, render 1


bhlloy 5, henry 3, render 1


bhlloy 5, henry 4

---

All this puts bhlloy in a position to vote to tie it up. Are we settling on henry as the only other option at this point?

I've already explained it multiple times. Maybe you should begin reading things thoroughly in this game.

1. If everyone just jumps on the inactive person then that tells us absolutely nothing. We've essentially lost a day of voting and the analysis it can provide.

2. We don't know if EF has a plan/mechanism for handling the inactive player. If he does, it's likely to be a much more balanced outcome than us blindly voting the player out.

Forgot to quote RendeR on that response. To be clear, my #137 is in direct response to his #135.

I don’t think that glvote is walking through the door.

I'm open to options but we're running out of time. I'm still good with voting for RendeR :)

We still have roughly a 10% chance of hitting a villager and that’s not nothing.

Let's make it funky!

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE RendeR

Its s day 1 vote, there is no voting analysis there. Day one we have nothing to go on, like ever.

You believe its likely to be a more balanced outcome, thats pure speculation on your part, there is no logic in that belief, no evidence to support it.

the Facts we have:

Day 1 vote, we know absolutely nothing about anyone specific.
We have 10 players, almost all with roles of some sort.
1 inactive player, with no input at all, so nothing is lost if we vote them off.
We gain the knowledge of their role so we know going forward what NOT to worry about.

Nothing speculative there. Flat facts.

For the whole group, the safest route is learning as much as we can without taking away from the group as a whole.

ugh, sorry folks, was responding to Telle's 2 point "logic"

It is NOT true that we don't know anything day 1. Yes the good guys don't know anything, but the bad guys DO. A retrospective analysis can be very useful. If everyone bandwagons on the inactive player we completely lose that.

unvote henry296
vote RendeR

As of #143:

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 4 (autumn, timmae, CR, telle)
render 1 (britrock)

Are we at a tie now? I see what Telle is saying but what are the odds of Bhlloy magically appearing tomorrow to play??

As of #145:

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

As of #146:

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

Wait, what’s the vote count?

Bro trick your vote is wasted don’t you think?

If he never shows up and EF doesn't do anything about it, we always have the option of taking him out later. Doing it now makes no sense.

:lol:

currently with Telle leading the bandwagon on me its bhlloy 4 and 2 for me.

Ok, sorry. I missed the fact that britrock switched his vote.

Not laughing at you GE; just laughing at that post sequence.

No I was just confused. Pretty rusty hand all.

TIme.......

Missed the last half hour due to kids. But I feel good about my vote on Henry. The push to make a move away from him was suspicious in my mind. If no one knows nothing, why not simply vote Henry and avoid a tie, rather than pushing Render?

And to answer this question, I would say odds are pretty good. Fairly common in my experience for someone to miss Day 1 and then show up saying they hadn't realized we'd started.

This is also a valid point.

I don't remember.. is it ok to discuss the vote between when voting ended and when the result is posted? And is the night kill posted at the same time as the vote result, or is that the next morning? Just can't remember if we're supposed to wait to see who's still alive to discuss such things :)

I say this as someone who also has his vote on henry. But there is value in a close vote, if not a tie. The voting information we gain is potentially invaluable.

I'm not even really against a tie on a Day 1 where we know nothing.

Well since everyone else is talking about the vote still, I guess it's ok.


Well once britrock moved there then was a tie. My moving back over to Render removed that possibility. I don't have any idea one way or the other on henry yet, but don't have a good feeling about Render.

You might have mentioned this 17 years ago....

The feeling just arose over the past day or so.

I always thought my randomness intrigued you?

If Bhlloy turns up bad, it makes telle look really bad.

Shoot, was hoping to see something by now. I have to go on my walk before the sun is completely gone. See you guys in an hour.

I'm doubting he will, only because the push for the illogical action of voting for him seemed a bit much for me.

You need to stop using the word logic, there is nothing logical in your choices, I've already shown that.

No, you've shown your ability to try to steer people away from logic.

This is a good point. I don't think EF specified in the rules, but it's probably good form not to either way.

I think he forgot us.....

Hmm... hope EF is okay.

I apologize. Was a weird night, my mother is back in the hospital with bad creatinine (sp?) levels. Was with my brother and sister much of the evening then it was late and this slipped my mind.

Can we push day one back to Wednesday evening?

Speaking for myself, absolutely my friend. Take care of you and yours. Hope she gets better quickly.

@Eaglefan: Not a problem at all... hope things improve on your side. I can't imagine. Thoughts are with you and your family. Take the time you need.

No worries. Hope your mom gets better soon.

Maybe that will give Bhlloy a chance to show up.

Yes, definitely. Real life is way more important than werewolf. Healing thoughts to your mom and much love to you and your family.

Of course, EF.

Just to be clear, we're interpreting this to mean that last night was not the deadline? (The alternative would be that we're waiting 24 hours for night processing.)

Good luck Eaglefan!

Good luck EagleFan!

Or are you stalling so our 10th player has a chance to arrive? :cool:

No worries, EF.

So this should be interesting to analyze. Everyone assumed that was a real deadline so we'll get two deadlines of data out of this day.

Now that we know how the vote ended up, what do we learn (granted we don't know anyone's allegiance yet). I felt there was some reluctance to go to Henry as an easy way to avoid a tie. I always feel like votes for inactives are good places for bad guys to bury a vote, though not necessarily lead that charge. It really depends a lot on the roles in game. If there's only 2 bad guys, or there are more than two but on separate teams, it's hard to find evidence in the vote.

The title of the game was updated to include "(Day 1 - 4/29 10 PM EST)", so that should mean that yes we have a new deadline for Day 1.

I second this thought... any push to lynch bhlloy is very suspect in my mind. Those pushing thoughts, feedback, conclusions, hypothesis, etc are many times those working in favor of the ?good" team. Obviously using implied thinking the "baddies" would use that to their advantage also but that can only be sussed out on later days.

There may be a connection between Telle and Henry but I need to dig into it more.. going off of my recollection it may have seemed too obvious in my first pass through.

This remains true as of #183.

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

I can't remember how to multiquote so i'm doing this manually. But this is what I find unusual. Here Telle points out that time is limited--her vote is on Henry at this point but she is reminding that RendeR is an option.

Keep in mind that Telle only voted RendeR in the beginning as what I took to be a joke Day 1 vote. There's no particular reason to go back to him, no one has noted anything suspicious about him. if Telle is a good guy she knows nothing more about RendeR than the rest of us, nor about Henry, so is suggesting moving off of one unknown to another unknown, to avoid a tie with an inactive unknown.


Britrock then quotes Telle's post above and moves off of bhlloy for RendeR, who at that point has 0 votes. If the goal is "making it funky" that certainly works in that it confuses the matter near deadline rather than consolidating. If the concern is not voting off an inactive player, this doesn't necessarily help as no one is voting RendeR. However, Brit knows Telle seems eager to switch, and she does.

All of this seems unusual for people who if good guys know nothing about any of these targets. Now, I will grant that A) there is no significant reason to vote Henry, as I started the vote on him only due to the slightest suspicion and B) there is probably 0 chance that Telle, Henry and Britrock are all on the same bad guy team given our numbers, so some percentage of this between 33 and 100% is coincidence. But it's what's interested me so far.

On for a few. Thanks for all the kind words.

We still have no idea what is going on. The nurse keeps giving us positive sounding messages but the test results aren't positive sounding so I don't know if we have an overly optimistic nurse that we are talking with or if they were told to be extra positive during this quarantine when talking to families.

The test results show what would be considered a 90% kidney failure and the options listed for that are dialysis or transplant but that isn't the way the nurse is making it sound. Also, the idea that they had someone stationed with her through the entire evening doesn't sound like something they would do if things were fine. She also wouldn't have been rushed to the hospital and pre-admitted if things were fine.

Sorry, just running through all the thoughts in my head. We have seen a major mental and physical decline in her over the past year so we are generally mentally preparing ourselves for worst case scenario so hearing positive news is good but we don't want it to be false positive news and then have the rug pulled out from under us.

Sorry, rambling a bit.

My gut tells me one of render/telle are on the "bad" side of the ledger. If one flips good the other is likely bad. It could be their assertive stance towards each other. Is something truly there? Or did one forget to take the wash out of the washer yesterday?! Or, maybe they are both on the evil side. Who knows.. it's early yet.

"if the associated roles exist"... darn you EF!

Sorry guys, I had no idea this was going on. Checking in and getting caught up now.

This strikes me as the best analysis so far. I'm not sure how it makes me feel about BR, because it's the kinda post that can have a nugget in that if it exposes something true about the baddies helps build trust and can be pointed , but I think I agree with it. Feels like the Vampires have to be in the game because otherwise I don't see a path to much happening in terms of NKs.

I'm around, feel free to ask me questions. I've got no incentive to tie it up, but would like to see the votes move around a bit more.

No reason for this, other than not tying it up and being the other option right now

vote RendeR

sorry, hit post too soon - meant to say "can be pointed to later"

"Ties - We never like ties... what will happen in the event of a tie? Try one to find out... " - I'm good with staying away from this given the wording, even if it was to save me from the vote. Doubly so given the unique setup and the presence of a Vampire team

My gut tells me similar, and I know I'm on the side of good.