There's speculation because Theo mentioned Wake's contract extension "freeing up 1.5m for luxury tax purposes", and that kicks in at 170m while our payroll is at 120m or so, but I don't really see any way we get near there. I'm sure they'll push hard to get one of Bay/Holliday for ~15-17m/y, and maybe go after Lackey/Figgins, but I think they do really like Buchholz as a 3/4 and Lowrie at SS for next year and will push harder to make a trade for a true superstar (Felix and Adrian Gonzalez are the two pipe dreams, Halladay and Justin Morneau two others mentioned) than overpaying a mediocre free-agent class to counter what the Yankees did last year with Tex/CC/Burnett.

There's also Chapman, and speculation he could get 20-25m, but I'm not sure if he really counts in the same class as major league free agents.

There's rumors that the Tigers are in a situation where they need to make some major cuts to payroll and Granderson along with just about everyone outside of Verlander, Cabrera, and Porcello are on the block.

DetTox, you heard anything?

It doesn't sound like it's a mandate, but the rumor is Dombrowski will trade Granderson if the right deal presents itself. I'd shudder to think what would happen to Dombrowski if he made that deal because Grandy might be the most beloved Detroit sports figure since Yzerman retired: he's just a great person.

Now personally, if a team like the Giants came to Dombrowski and offered a package that was highlighted by Madison Bumgarner, I think you have to do it.

Likely though, I give it a 10% chance of happening. If it did though, I think it'll be the Yankees to take him because they could also take on a guy like Nate Robertson and his terrible contract, and still give up a decent package in return.

We'll see what happens though. I certainly would not put it past Dombrowski because he's done a lot of big wheeling and dealing, but Grandy as a 3 or 5 hitter is a 30 HR/100 RBI type guy with speed and great D who is on an absurdly affordable contract for I believe 3 more years.

So to summarize, unless we either get an elite pitching or middle infield prospect who is about MLB ready, or a ton of salary relief via a team taking on Nate, Willis or Ordonez, I don't see it.

Also, personally, I think Porcello might be our only untouchable player. I doubt we'd deal Miggy or Verlander, but I could certainly see it.

I believe the Cy Young awards for both leagues are announced this week. Hoping that Zack picks up the American League award.

If he doesn't, its a travesty.

Is it Cy Young? I thought it was Manager of the Year and Rookie of the Year this week. But maybe it's all of them and the MVPs alone are next week.

I know the AL Cy Young is announce tomorrow. Not sure about the NL Cy Young date.

2009 MLB Awards | MLB.com: News

Today, ROY. Tomorrow AL CY. Wed, MOY. Thursday NL CY. MVPs next week.

Interesting:

Andrew Bailey (OAK) wins the AL ROY:

Bailey takes AL rookie award | MLB.com: News

Chris Coglan (FLA) wins the NY ROY:

Coghlan is named NL's top rookie | MLB.com: News

Not the highest profile names.

Boo.....was hoping Happ would take the NL ROY.

And I wanted McCutchen to win. I would've been fine with Happ winning, too, but Coghlan?

And I'll flip out tomorrow if Greinke doesn't win the Cy Young.

To be fair, Coghlan has the same OPS+ as McCutchen and more games. But Happ or Hanson should have won it.

Should have gone to Happ. Coghlan's defense was terrible killed some of his value as a hitter. I would have gone Happ, Hanson, Wells, McCutchen, Coghlan.

It's all perception. After all, terrible defense didn't stop Jeter from getting the Gold Glove. :D

Zack Greinke won the AL Cy Young Award!!!! SWEET!!!!!!!!!!!!! Congrats, Zack!

Very nice! Glad to see the voters made the right choice, even with the relatively low win total!

Any truth to the Adriann Gonzales(1b-SD) to the White Sox rumors that are all over Chicago sports radio today?

I think they got the order right too, which is surprising. Expected more support for CC.

Only thing I've seen is this from MLBTradeRumors saying there's nothing to it.

http://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/5797895977

Happy for Greinke. He dominated baseball this year despite playing for a bad team and an anemic offense. He had six no-decisions in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer.

Garrett Jones only got like 2 votes. I know it was half a season but he OPS'd like .920ish and hit 20 homers.

You have to forgive some voters who think the Pirates are an AAA team.

Heyman tweets that Lincecum won.

Jon Heyman rant anyone?

Fucking fuck Jon Heyman and his fuckin twitter fucking account. It's for jackoffs and/or 12 year old facebook fuckers.

Too bad Wainwright had such a good year. I think he cost Chris Carpenter the Cy Young he should have won. Congrats to Lincecum, though!

BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers Assn. of America.

Wainwright actually got the most first place votes.

Of course, he had 19 wins. He was 2 wins better than the next best pitcher in the NL.

It is so sad that even having 2 more wins than the next most pitcher is still that powerful in Cy Young voting.

Tim Lincecum was head and shoulders above other pitchers; glad people got it correct, though its depressing how many old farts look at wins and nothing else.

Head and shoulders? I'm not sure you can necessarily say it that extreme vis a vis Chris Carpenter.

As much as I think Lincecum was the best pitcher this year (and I may be biased, but I think this is true), it's not "head and shoulders" better. Perhaps "clearly" better, but even that is pushing it.

By WAR, Lincecum was significantly ahead of Wainwright and Carpenter. I think it was pretty clear that Lincecum was the most dominating pitcher in the NL and the most effective - his edge in K's, IP and xFIP more than make up for the edge Carpenter had in ERA. Wainwright's only edge on Lincecum was IP, and only by 7 2/3.

Good on the BBWA for getting over their past bias towards W's.

Free agency has begun, do something good Braves.

I thought this was an interesting article on MLB revenue sharing.

Joe Mauer wins the AL MVP, and the BBWAA is impressing me this year by being a bit smarter than usual:

Mauer catches AL MVP Award | MLB.com: News

I'm rather amazed Jeter didn't pull in a couple first place votes.

So does anybody here want to burn Keith Law and Will Carroll at the stake for leaving Chris Carpenter of their Cy Young ballots? Or was that what that angry white man rant thread was about?

This is a great article a few days ago in the NYT about sabermetrics and Brian Bannister:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/sp...er=rss&emc=rss

No. It was a totally valid decision.

Agreed. Just trying to fan some flames. Obviously, nobody wants to take the bait :)

The only award the BBWAA got wrong this year was the NL rookie of the year. I can live with that, although Adam Wainwright getting the most 1st place Cy Young Votes and Miguel Cabrera getting a 1st place vote bugs me.

I'm not entirely sure putting Wainwright at 3rd and Carpenter at 4th is "totally valid".

Sure it is. By WAR, Wainwright was ahead of Carpenter 5.7 to 5.6; by xFIP, Wainwright was ahead 3.45 to 3.46, and with 37 1/3 more IP than Carpenter.

It really depends on what measures you most value in your Cy Young voting. I have no problem with someone putting Wainwright just ahead of Carpenter, as I think there are valid arguments both ways. The most important thing is this - Lincecum won, and he deserved to do so.

Do you really think the old farts that vote for the award look at those sort of stats?

Seriously, Wainwright was ahead by miniscule margins in both measures. 0.1 in WAR and 0.01 in xFIP. They are basically equal in those measurements. Therefore you should look deeper and thus, looking at WPA and ERA+, Carpenter easily outclasses Wainwright. If you are going to use those season long stats as reasons why Wainwright should be above Carpenter, then there is NO REASON not to have Haren above both.

Well, I'm pretty sure Law and Carroll do.

Fair enough, but outside a handful of writers, scouting personnel, and geeks like us no one else does.

My old man has been a baseball fan for 75 years, I guarantee you he has no clue what any stats beyond ERA, wins, K's and a few other basics mean.

I would venture to say most writers are in the same category as my dad.

Sure, but I think the conversation is whether Law was justified in putting Wainwright ahead of Carpenter.

Not gonna lie, I have no freakin clue what the hell those stats are. Guess it's a good thing I'm not really a "stats" kind of guy.

Regarding WAR, if you value that stat, you value the fact that it attempts to quantify the impact of the player over an entire season. It's an all-encompassing stat. I'm not going to get into a debate over how accurate it is, or whether it's a better stat to use than WPA - that's a personal value judgment.

When you look at xFIP, you have to keep in mind that it's only part of the equation, as it doesn't factor in IP. I simply pointed out that not only did Wainwright best Carpenter slightly in that stat, he did so while also pitching quite a few more innings.

Those two things combined, to me, present a valid reason to rank Wainwright ahead of Carpenter, even if the margin is tiny.

As far as Haren goes, I would agree that he should've gotten more love from the voters, especially ones like Law who shouldn't care so much about win totals.

But I will stand by my contention that it's perfectly valid to place Wainwright ahead of Carpenter. I don't think it's a slam-dunk either way, so I'm not going to quibble with one being ranked ahead of the other. As I stated, I think the right guy won the award, and that's the more important thing.

We can always cherry-pick and complain about the random lower votes for MVP :)

3 voters thought Cano was 7th? Victor Martinez? Ian Kinsler?? Jason Kubel 7th??? Todd Helton 2nd in the NL? Carpenter and Wainwright with more votes than Lincecum? Yunel Escober 5th? Miguel Tejada, Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Hawpe???

It looks like the Braves have a new closer.


Wagner is a type-A free agent so the Red Sox will get Atlanta's first round pick but Atlanta will be losing type-A relievers Soriano and Gonzalez and will be getting picks back in return. After coming back from injury Wagner only pitched 15.2 innings last year but his stats were impressive in those innings and he should be at least a slight upgrade from Soriano/Gonzalez.

cool - i'll take the type-a pick for wagner, k thnx?

Yeah, the 20th overall pick and a sandwich pick for Chris Carter and a couple million bucks? That's one hell of a deal.

Yeah the Mets came out the worst in the whole thing. They should have just kept Wagner.

If only any of us thought of this when the deal was announced!

I love that the Braves signed Wagner to be the closer. It can only mean great things for the Phillies.

Does Wagner really have much left after his injury? Sure, he had a pretty ERA but it was in 15 IP. How were his velocity and movement?


Yeah, for them, it looks like "lose a 1st rounder, gain a 1st rounder" but they could have had both. Or how about the scenario with the Blue Jays last year where they only got a 3rd for Burnett because the Yankees went shopping for so much stuff in the high rent district? Was that worth it? Heck, if a bottom 15 team grabs him, don't they only get a 2nd rounder?

SI

Yes, but still would get the sandwich pick.

refresh my memory-

Sandwich picks have to be signed, or you don't get another pick. That's correct?

What about if you get a pick from someone else for them signing your type A? Does that one also have to be used or lost?

Given how retarded Elias' ranking system is (Mike Gonzalez more valuable than John Lackey? Thanks!) that's why the PTBNL should have been dependent on his performance or eventual Type A/B/none status.

That would of course assume the Mets/Minaya would have offered arbitration, and indications were they weren't due to the financial downside if he accepted. If you assume that, the Mets did well enough getting something in return, and the Red Sox continue to use their financial muscle and willingness to spend to pick up potentially valuable pieces (see also Jeremy Hermida).His velocity and movement appeared to be all the way back. No idea if he'll hold up over a whole season, but he was blowing the ball past hitters, not getting lucky out there in his minimal time with Boston.No commentary, I just love that people on a text sim message board in 2009 still post in a stats discussion to point out their ignorance.When you get a Type A from another team it is treated as a regular pick and you will receive the one after next year it if you fail to sign the player. It's only when you're on that second year pick (pick 20a instead of 20) that you have to sign the player.

I don't think sandwich picks are any different, but I'll try to get confirmation.

Polanco signed with the Phillies today @ $6mil/year.

Philadelphia Phillies, Placido Polanco agree to 3-year, $18 million deal - ESPN

Good get for the Phils. He'll benefit from going back to the NL and being able to play in a variety of positions (I am assuming 3B there?)

He was very good down the stretch but seemed to lose a bit of what he had.

In Amaro We Trust

I think its 1 year more than they should have given him - IMO, the Phillies with Beltre would go in as favorites to make the WS next year. Still, he will be better offensively than Pedro Feliz (but not by much), but may be a downgrade defensively.

Yes, he'll play third base. I get the feeling the Phillies went this route because:

(1). He's cheaper than what DeRosa and Beltre will go for.
(2). Phillies keep their first round pick.
(3). He's a righty who doesn't strike out that much.

I don't think he's that much of an upgrade over Feliz, but he should break up our heavy lefty lineup a little bit and get on base without changing J-Roll's free-swinging ways.

dola

Also, it gives us payroll flexibility to add a big ticket guy via trade (i.e. Halladay) if we still want to go down that route.

He can also play 2nd if something were to happen to Chase, and could give Chase a rest when needed.

Plus he takes pitches. :)

He's the prototype #2 hitter. His patience was not very good at times this year, but usually he makes pitchers work, mainly because he fouls so many pitches off. Very tough to K. Has some pop, especially in your guys park, he should be good for 10-12 HR with 50-60 RBI.

His D isn't going to be awful. The range is an issue but he is reliable and has a strong arm. Not the ideal 3B but there are worse for sure.

Not sure how proving Lathum's point of "outside of a handful of writers, scouting personnel and geeks like us, no one else does (know what these stats are)" is considered ignorant, but hey, maybe in 2010 it will be less so.

Nice signing by the Phils with Polanco. As much as I hate to admit it, they really are becoming a model franchise. They remind me of the Yanks of the mid to late 90's, building the team from within (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels) and adding hardworking, team oriented impact type guys.

I get the feeling it's a move I'll like more as time passes (much like the Ibanez signing).

DeRosa and Beltre are both type B free agents though, so they wouldn't lose a 1st round pick.

You must be new here....;)

New concepts are scary, for sure, but that doesn't mean they're not worth understanding.

I was under the impression the Phils were after Figgins. This must mean they went a different direction. I thought Figgins would have been the perfect leadoff hitter for that lineup.

Figgins is supposedly looking for about $12 mil per year. He's coming off of a career year and even if he drops back down to something between what he was last year and what he had been before that, Polanco is a much better deal.

I really don't like the Polanco move for the Phillies.

I'll let you translate that.

Hes a good signing. Now Rollins will still bat leadoff though. Maybe Charlie will smarten up and put Victorino #1 followed by Polanco. Doubtful!

Did you morph into a woman?

Ha.

General apathy about how your franchise is being run while seeing the competition make the right moves rips a lot out of you.

Is there some sort of countdown calendar to when Minaya will resign/be fired? I am not a big fan of Cashman, but I feel bad for Mets fans having the management you have had lately.

Sources: Mets GM gets vote of confidence, 4-year extension - MLB - ESPN

2012? With all the talk about the Mets cash issues, I would be surprised if they flushed a lot of cash down the drain by firing him.

Sounds like the Mets cash issues are behind them. Wilpon lost a fuckload of money, but he's apparently given the ok to go after a big-name free agent this offseason. The Mets are expected to target either Holiday or Lackey.

Great way to screw the franchise more (unless they come cheap, which I doubt). Save the money for next year's FA class.

As surmised after receiving a pick for Wagner, the Red Sox sign Type A Marco Scutaro. 2 years 12.5m, 3rd year option (not sure what type). Not exciting, but not bad. Don't get too excited about that 1st Blue Jay fans - it probably means we're going after another Type A (Holliday swapped with Bay, Lackey, or possibly even one of the relievers.)

Option is $6 team, $3 player, $1.5 buyout.

Ambivalent, moving to pleased if this means they go after more Type-As.

The Minayan's predict the end of the Mets playoff chances until 2012.

Hmm, methinks you guys are overthinking the Type A stuff. I don't think the Red Sox care that much about that when it comes to the big time free agents. If a Lackey or a Holliday want to come, no draft pick is going to stop the Sox from offering them a deal. Signing Scutaro doesn't really change that.

If anything, Scutaro isn't the precursor to anything; it's the aftermath. Scutaro, being a Type A, is the result of the Wagner signing. Knowing they were receiving an even better pick from the Braves, the Red Sox cared less that they dealt away their top pick with the Scutaro signing (which they probably are going to give up anyway because of an actual major Type A signing).

I do think the Scutaro signing indicates the Red Sox aren't going to go after Gonzalez or Halladay. You could sign a guy who does at least in the ballpark of what Scutaro does but not a Type A, so signing Scutaro shows a lack of concern about farm depth. Which tells me the Red Sox don't think they're going to pull off a Gonzalez or Halladay deal, because that would impact their farm depth. If they thought a deal was remotely likely, they would be more picky with their picks.

I agree that if a Lackey or a Holliday want to come then draft pick compensation is irrelevant.

If a Scutaro wants to come, however, I do think it is relevant. He doesn't offer so much that his value dwarfs the value lost from the pick. If you tried to monetize the value of such a first round pick (I've seen studies that have put such picks at $5m to $7m) then it is certainly relevant in this case. Not only are the Sox outlaying the $12.5m+ for Scutaro, but they have also lost the value of the pick.

Oh, I certainly get that. I'm just not following the logic of "Sign Scutaro" == "Going after more Type A's".

Unless people mean more Type A's that shouldn't really be Type A's (not top end guys), but why get excited about that?

It doesn't equal going after more Type As, but as a Sox fan it makes signing a non-impact Type A (Scutaro) more tolerable.

Rosenthal tweets:

If this is true, bummer to lose such a key clubhouse guy, and Figgy's skills aren't reproduced as often in the league now as bombers like Bay.

That said, I'm happier seeing him go to the M's than one of the big, big clubs. I would have been happiest to see him go to a non-AL West, non-big club, though.

The Angels have been more or less headed down the road to putting Wood at 3B in 2010 for a while now, and Aybar can at least be a passable leadoff hitter, even if he doesn't draw nearly as many walks as he should (but then, Figgy didn't used to either until this past season).

Figgins makes a lot of sense for the M's due to his defensive versatility, being a switch-hitter and adding more on-base skills to the lineup. I'm bummed to see Beltre go, but Figgins is a good replacement option and makes the roster more flexible.

Wow. $9M per year for Figgins? That seems like a lot at first blush, but Z seems like one of the sharpest GMs out there so maybe I'll have to re-examine my thoughts.

SI

You'll really like him on a personal level, dawgfan. He's always been a good guy, a guy you root for. And he has really improved, a plus defender at 3B and 2B, and he could play SS or any OF spot as well and not embarass himself. Plus, the speed, of course, and his growth as a more patient hitter now. He turned himself from a slap hitter with speed to an elite level leadoff guy.

Him and Ichiro would be a fantastic 1-2 punch for the M's.

Twins better get their activity level up a bit or they will force Mauer right out of town. From everything I have heard Mauers biggest concern in staying in Minnesota is whether or not they will be able to put him in a situation to win. Standing by and watching other teams makes moves the offseason before moving into a new stadium isnt exactly confincing.

Actually, that's slightly under projections for him. The comparable deal has been Pierre, who got $10-11 M for four years. Furcal also got a similar deal. If you want to go players who aren't Dodgers and go back a few years, you have Damon's deal with the Yanks. It's pushed a little higher, of course, because the Yanks commonly over-spent to get a guy off of the market, plus Damon has more power than those others, but he also had less speed or defensive ability.

$9 M is probably about market value, taking into consideration a slight drop due to the economic downturn.