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Edward64 12-06-2008 11:34 PM

Shinseki as VA secretary. I don't think we know the full accurate story but I do remember him as standing up to Rumsfelds optimistic projects for the occupation of Iraq. Glad Shinseki has landed somewhere.

Galaril 12-06-2008 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1894662)
I'm beginning to wonder how many of Obama's campaign promises will even come to pass at this point. His tax plan is reportedly going to be on hold indefinitely due to the downturn in the economy. Also, it appears that his advisors are considering holding off on many of the terrorism policy rollbacks after the massive attacks in India. Policy makers are concerned that a rollback of some pieces of the Patriot Act and Homeland Security changes may not be the correct move. They're worried that the terrorists are using these attacks to test how far they can go with Obama.


Though many Americans wouldlike to believe the whole revolves around us the plain truth is some things just happen regardless of us or how we think/feel about them. So I tend to disagree that these attacks had anything at all to do with us.

Subby 12-07-2008 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1894665)
Well, it's not really of his choice. He'd love to implement many of the policies that he promised during the campaign, but as I stated before the election, it wasn't likely at all that he'd be able to implement many of his policies as they simply don't make any sense related to real-world politics. As radical as many of Obama's suggested policies are, it appears that radicals from the other side of the world may hog-tie him for the most part. As a result, we're going to get a presidency for the next 4 years where not much 'change' actually occurs. I think the same would have been true of a McCain presidency.

The best part is that you are going to be cluelessly and harmlessly yammering away in cyberspace for the next eight years while President Obama actually gets shit done.

Your Internet addiction = good for America!

flere-imsaho 12-07-2008 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 1899788)
Shinseki as VA secretary. I don't think we know the full accurate story but I do remember him as standing up to Rumsfelds optimistic projects for the occupation of Iraq. Glad Shinseki has landed somewhere.


Well, basically he's the guy who put together a plan for Iraq that postulated force levels of up to 500,000 troops. After saying as much when testifying before Congress, he was chewed out publically by both Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz.

This was, however, only one in a series of disagreements he had with Rumsfeld.

flere-imsaho 12-07-2008 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 1899787)
Huh? Other than for the infrastructure section, the rest sounds weak to me. If that's his energy plan, I'm very disappointed.

Most Emailed News Stories


I wonder how much detail, though, one can put in a press release. ;)

Flasch186 12-07-2008 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1894665)
Well, it's not really of his choice. He'd love to implement many of the policies that he promised during the campaign, but as I stated before the election, it wasn't likely at all that he'd be able to implement many of his policies as they simply don't make any sense related to real-world politics. As radical as many of Obama's suggested policies are, it appears that radicals from the other side of the world may hog-tie him for the most part. As a result, we're going to get a presidency for the next 4 years where not much 'change' actually occurs. I think the same would have been true of a McCain presidency.


Forgive me for pointing out that almost ALL of the shit you spouted on about during the election and in the days since the election have turned out to be total bunk.

molson 12-07-2008 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Subby (Post 1899803)
The best part is that you are going to be cluelessly and harmlessly yammering away in cyberspace for the next eight years while President Obama actually gets shit done.



I really hope he "gets shit done" (as long as it's good shit). But I'm facinated by the optimism. Charisma is an amazing force.

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-08-2008 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 1899880)
I really hope he "gets shit done" (as long as it's good shit). But I'm facinated by the optimism. Charisma is an amazing force.


Agreed. These two articles profoundly demonstrate that the more things change, the more they stay the same.........

8 years ago:

Cheney Denies 'Talking Down' Economy for Political Gain : Talk of Recession Strains Transition - International Herald Tribune

Yesterday:

My Way News - Obama: Economy to get worse before it improves

The only real difference is the spin on what is basically the same situation. It's all the same in the end. There were people making posts just like Subby and Flasch 8 years ago on the other side. It's silly, but not unexpected. They're just caught up in the moment. It happens to the best of people.

Flasch186 12-08-2008 08:45 AM

i point to my post a few posts above. You have totally been discredited when it comes to anything political especially any sort of speculation or prognostication.

JPhillips 12-08-2008 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1900482)
Agreed. These two articles profoundly demonstrate that the more things change, the more they stay the same.........

8 years ago:

Cheney Denies 'Talking Down' Economy for Political Gain : Talk of Recession Strains Transition - International Herald Tribune

Yesterday:

My Way News - Obama: Economy to get worse before it improves

The only real difference is the spin on what is basically the same situation. It's all the same in the end. There were people making posts just like Subby and Flasch 8 years ago on the other side. It's silly, but not unexpected. They're just caught up in the moment. It happens to the best of people.


Where do you pull these from? It's not a big deal as we all borrow from other sites, but you have a habit of posting without citation. I have a hard time believing that you saw an AP article and said to yourself, "Hey that reminds me of an International Herald Tribune article from eight years ago."

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-08-2008 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1900531)
Where do you pull these from? It's not a big deal as we all borrow from other sites, but you have a habit of posting without citation. I have a hard time believing that you saw an AP article and said to yourself, "Hey that reminds me of an International Herald Tribune article from eight years ago."


These two articles were posted over at the Wizbang blog. I don't agree with all of their opinion in the blog, but the articles are a good reference.

Flasch186 12-08-2008 09:32 AM

reference for what?

Senator 12-08-2008 09:38 AM

I refer back to the title of this thread.

I hope I get my "President check" before Christmas.

I predict I won't.

flere-imsaho 12-12-2008 12:52 PM

The Obama Presidency - hopes and predictions

Personally, I'm hoping for a little bit less of this:

Quote:

“YOU know you have arrived when you get interviewed by the 29-year-old instead of the 22-year-old,” the 57-year-old foreign service officer said to me with a laugh. It was late 2005, and this three-time ambassador had just been interviewed for a top post at the Department of State.

Her interviewer was part of a large corps of 20-somethings — some were in their early 30s — who ran the Office of Presidential Personnel. Many of them were sons or daughters of supporters of President George W. Bush. Others had connections through congressmen. With few exceptions, they had one thing in common: very little experience and a very big attitude.

Another top foreign service officer called me after his interview to be ambassador to a volatile African country. “The problem was,” he told me, “the kid interviewing me could not pronounce the name of the country I was being interviewed for. It made for an awkward interview until he just started saying ‘the country we are considering you for.’”

President-elect Barack Obama has chosen an all-star cabinet with great promise. But the next level of appointments — assistant secretaries, deputy assistant secretaries and ambassadors — are just as important. These people will brief the cabinet officials as they confront harrowing domestic and foreign policy challenges. We need competent people in these positions. And to get those people, we need experienced screeners, interviewers and decision-makers in the Office of Presidential Personnel.

My own experience is typical. I had three jobs in the Bush administration: ambassador for counternarcotics and justice reform in Afghanistan, deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement affairs and chief of staff of the United States mission to the United Nations.

For two of these jobs, my appointment was preceded by an effort by a 20-something in personnel to place an unqualified friend in the job. (In the third instance, the State Department went out of its way to avoid the personnel office by appealing directly to a senior assistant to the president.) For one of the jobs, two State Department officials, John Bolton and Anne Patterson, had to intervene.

In the worst cases, the “kids” — as many of us called them — would search for a candidate and eventually conclude, like Dick Cheney when he was the head of George W. Bush’s vice presidential search team, that they were the best candidates for the jobs.

The problems that resulted occasionally made the news. There was small bit of outrage in 2005 when a 30-something personnel employee picked herself to head the new Immigration and Customs Enforcement division of the Department of Homeland Security. (Her tenure included the publication of a photograph online of her standing next to an employee, who was costumed in blackface and a prisoner’s uniform, during a Halloween party that she hosted.)

Similarly, the inexperience of Monica Goodling, the former liaison to the White House at the Justice Department, contributed to the politics-based hiring of career lawyers and helped create a demoralizing scandal from which the department still has not fully recovered. But there were many other such stories that stayed below the radar screen.

In fairness to the Bush administration, for which I retain a great deal of admiration, putting young campaign workers and connected college graduates into White House personnel positions is nothing new. And some of them, like Stuart Holliday and Dina Powell, who ran President Bush’s personnel office for a while, were true professionals.

But if our new president wants to make an important change to how government works, he should fill the personnel office — and the liaison offices to the White House at the various executive branch departments — with a combination of veteran government employees and human resources experts. That’s the way to ensure that the best people get the jobs that will shape our country for the next four years.

:jawdrop:

Dutch 12-13-2008 12:10 PM

My hope is that Obama is the exception and not the norm of Illinois Democrats.

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-17-2008 07:33 AM

Geez, my hope is beginning to be that Obama's cabinet doesn't have any more skeletons in the closet. Looks like Rahm may not be the only one who Obama failed to adequately check his background. Another one of Obama's cabinet is a main player in a new 'pay to play' investigation.......

"Pay To Play" Probe Hits New Mexico, Washington Post: Gov. Bill Richardson's Office Investigated Over Political Contributor's $1.4M State Contracts - CBS News

Quote:

"Pay To Play" Probe Hits New Mexico
Washington Post: Gov. Bill Richardson's Office Investigated Over Political Contributor's $1.4M State Contracts

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16, 2008

A federal grand jury is investigating whether a financial firm improperly won more than $1.4 million in work for the state of New Mexico shortly after making contributions to political action committees of Gov. Bill Richardson (D).

The probe focuses on whether the governor's office urged a state agency to hire CDR Financial Products. The probe is in a highly active stage at a time when President-elect Barack Obama has chosen Richardson as his nominee for secretary of commerce, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

The grand jury in Albuquerque is expected to hear testimony today from several key witnesses, including officials at Richard's political action committees and bankers at J.P. Morgan who worked with CDR on the state's investments.

The inquiry is part of a long-running nationwide investigation into "pay-to-play" practices in local government bond markets. In other cities, federal investigators are questioning whether financial firms have lavished politicians with money and gifts in exchange for fee-paying work advising municipal and local governments on investments. Authorities indicted the mayor of Birmingham, Ala., this month on charges of taking hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts and loans from a firm that led the city into toxic investments and massive bankruptcy.

In the New Mexico case, the FBI and federal prosecutors are investigating how CDR, based in Beverly Hills, Calif., won lucrative fees from the New Mexico Finance Authority in 2004 soon after donating $100,000 to two Richardson organizations.

From 2003 to 2004, CDR Financial gave $75,000 to Sí Se Puede, which paid for expenses at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. CDR's president and founder, David Rubin, also gave $25,000 to Moving America Forward, which funded Richardson's efforts to register Hispanic and American Indian voters.

Rubin was generous to Obama's campaign as well, giving $29,000 to help elect the senator to the White House. Yesterday, the Obama transition office declined to comment on the development.

Gilbert Gallegos, a spokesman for Richardson, said the governor was "aware of questions surrounding some financial transactions at the New Mexico Finance Authority" and expected state officials to cooperate fully. Gallegos declined further comment.

The U.S. attorney's office in New Mexico also declined to comment on the investigation, which began in the summer. Several Finance Authority board members have publicly confirmed being interviewed by the FBI. Paul Kennedy, an attorney for Richardson's former chief of staff, David Harris, confirmed that his client had been interviewed by the FBI in the summer but declined to comment further.

CDR's attorney, Richard Beckler, declined to answer questions about the probe's focus.

"CDR has always tried to abide by these byzantine campaign finance regulations and is cooperating fully with this investigation," Beckler said in a telephone interview yesterday.

CDR made $1.48 million advising the authority on interest-rate swaps and refinancing of funds related to $1.6 billion in transportation bonds issued by the agency, state officials confirmed. Interest-rate swaps are financial contracts based on the value of commodities, loans or other assets, and debtors sometimes use them to lower borrowing costs. But many swaps have recently proven unwise as the assets upon which they were based plummeted in value.

The state hired CDR after requesting proposals for a bond adviser on Dec. 30, 2003. Sources familiar with the investigation said CDR initially did not make the list of the top three bidders. But the authority committee considering the bids redid the selection process and split some work, eventually hiring CDR for a part.

Committee Chairman Rick Homans was Richardson's economic development secretary at the time. He is now Richardson's taxation and revenue secretary and has declined to comment.

astrosfan64 12-17-2008 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 1886800)
you obviously missed my rants on this in the election threads during the debates.

offshore domestic oil drilling would not provide a drop of oil that would find its way into american gas tanks within something like 10 years. the problem is that we don't have the rigs and drilling supplies to exploit offshore oil fields at the moment, and producing and deploying them then doing the drilling and refining would take that long.

now it IS true, and i do admit, that there is oil in ANWR that we could access sooner than that. I will also admit that I am not up to speed on exactly how much oil is up there and what type of effect it would have on gas prices in the short/intermediate term, but my impression has been that it's not massively significant (although let me state again, i don't know, so feel free to post objective scientific research proving me wrong). I believe i've heard scientists say it would be a drop-in-the-bucket compared to what we currently use, and certainly not a long-term answer.

the solution to energy independence is not drilling (either offshore or ANWR). It lies principally in the domestic (and later military) use of alternative energy sources.


Since you no nothing about this please stop talking. We have plenty rigs and drilling supplies for offshore. The problem is when oil drops to lower rates, it no longer worth the expense of drilling. The oil field is predicting a 50% drop in the amount of rigs this year from last in the north american drilling fields.

We just had our budget cut by about 1/3 for the next year.

JPhillips 12-17-2008 09:41 AM

Quote:

Geez, my hope is beginning to be that Obama's cabinet doesn't have any more skeletons in the closet.

Insincerity, thy name is MBBF.

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-17-2008 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1906036)
Insincerity, thy name is MBBF.


Actually, I was being sincere. I'd much rather we be able to discuss policies. Given the Obama attacks over the vetting of Palin, you would think that he would have done a better job on his end. It's obviously concerning.

sterlingice 12-17-2008 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1906036)
Insincerity, thy name is MBBF.


He's even sincere enough to place it in multiple threads:
Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Illinois governor arrested on corruption charges.......

SI

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-17-2008 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 1906043)


Obviously, that was in response to a question, not a post meant to double post.

sterlingice 12-17-2008 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1906044)
Obviously, that was in response to a question, not a post meant to double post.


Obviously, there's a great deal of sincerity going around this morning

SI

JPhillips 12-17-2008 10:03 AM

MBBF: You've been looking for any way to discredit Obama for months. That's fine, but at least drop the "wishing him the best" act.

astrosfan64 12-17-2008 10:35 AM

Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-17-2008 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by astrosfan64 (Post 1906062)
Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.


Agree with all of this. It's simply unheard of to think that people on this board or anyone in the general public would every root against a president. I can't remember the last time that's ever happened.

Flasch186 12-17-2008 10:52 AM

MBBF, did you ever admit to being completely wrong on the elections thread?

lemme see...

nope.

credit = zero

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-17-2008 11:30 AM

I'm sure that Flasch's Truth Watch(TM) is just finalizing data on the criminal investigations in Chicago and New Mexico. He's never ducked an issue before. I'm certain he'll get to the bottom of these current issues. He's always been a person that seeks the truth regardless of party affiliation, and I respect him for that.

Flasch186 12-17-2008 12:03 PM

lets see

the prosecutor has arrested the accused
the pres-elect team has investigated
the prosecutor asked that the report be delayed and confirmed that the president elect and his team aren't being implicated

not sure what else you want from that other than the same thing I said about Troopergate:

I hope EVERYONE cooperates fully and the TRUTH comes out.

I feel fairly confident though that the President isn't going to start a parallel investigation and refuse to cooperate with Fitzgerald, if he does Ill be sure to lump him in the same category as the other people who do so.

you do want the same right? In all things, right?

Is that what you wanted? Pretty clear huh? exactly the same as Troopergate? You, however, were VERY VERY wrong, completely biased, and never ever admitted it even when empirical un-partisan information blew up in your face. that's just crazy IMO

Buccaneer 12-17-2008 06:38 PM

You guys realize that this continuing partisan bickering make both sides look like fools? Flasch/JPhillip/etc., don't get too cocky. You never have and still don't sound any different than MBBF/etc..

JPhillips 12-17-2008 07:33 PM

Buc: This is going to sound a lot bitchier than I intend it to be, but here goes. For all of your concern about other folks' behavior there's almost no one here more set in their ways than you are. I gather you see yourself as beyond partisanship, but even if that's true, you're a rather inflexible ideologue at this point.

I don't have a problem with your inflexibility and I'm willing to stipulate that I'm just as inflexible(age and parenting does that to a guy). I honestly don't have a problem with an adversarial relationship when it comes to politics as I think the genuine disagreements should be aired out. If we're ever going to change our minds it will be because of passionate argument, not deferential silence.

I try to only call people out when I believe they aren't being honest, and that's what I did with MBBF. I don't have a problem with him being opposed to Obama, but concern trolling is just a way to obfuscate reality. I obviously don't agree with MBBF on substance, but that's something we can argue over if there is an attempt by both sides to show our cards.

As for looking like a fool, perhaps, but as long as I'm deemed honest about my intentions I can live with that. I'm happier letting the world see me for who I am, warts and all, than I would be pretending to bathe in the warm waters of ambivalent and apathetic centrism. At the end of the day I think you believe the same thing.

molson 12-17-2008 07:42 PM

It's interesting, both sides think that the other sides' approach to an argument is "wrong" - they feel that way, of course, because they're so sure they're "right".

Disagreeing is "trolling", agreeing is something else, because hey, you can't be trolling if you're right.

JPhillips 12-17-2008 07:49 PM

molson: I think you misunderstand the term "concern trolling". That's when you feign concern for someone or something that you in fact have no concern for. It seems pretty obvious based on his history that MBBF isn't really concerned for Obama.

Buccaneer 12-17-2008 08:11 PM

Quote:

As for looking like a fool, perhaps, but as long as I'm deemed honest about my intentions I can live with that. I'm happier letting the world see me for who I am, warts and all, than I would be pretending to bathe in the warm waters of ambivalent and apathetic centrism. At the end of the day I think you believe the same thing.

JPhillips, I do agree with that. I think I should not have lumped you with Flasch but instead, should put in Flere. :)

I actually don't think what I believe would be called bi-partisanship or centrism or beyond partisanship. It's probably an attitude that the current red/blue partisans are equally wrong. :) Since the summer, I have seen a constant stream attacking the opposition and being defensive about one side. You can call that passionate arguing but in the end, it is really about changing parties while we continue to accept federal government solutions and increasing powers. I cannot accept that and those that argue for it. Or something like that.

st.cronin 12-17-2008 09:10 PM

Bill Richardson is filthy.

SFL Cat 12-17-2008 09:32 PM

Politician = filthy

RedKingGold 12-17-2008 09:53 PM

Vote Ron Paul!

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-18-2008 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1906341)
I try to only call people out when I believe they aren't being honest, and that's what I did with MBBF. I don't have a problem with him being opposed to Obama, but concern trolling is just a way to obfuscate reality. I obviously don't agree with MBBF on substance, but that's something we can argue over if there is an attempt by both sides to show our cards.


I actually was be honest about Obama. I REALLY would prefer that we don't have any scandals in the White House at this point. Obviously, I might have a small dab of sarcasm involved in my comments, but I was being very truthful in my feeling that I hoped Obama didn't end up in any political scandals.

Thus far, from a policy standpoint, I've been very happy that most of the Obama policies are moderating before our very eyes.

TroyF 12-18-2008 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by astrosfan64 (Post 1906062)
Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.




Actually, I really don't think it matter what exactly the president does. A lot of the current mortgage crisis were due to policies put into place before GW took office. Nor were the .coms turning to crap something Bush could have prevented. The world economy is suffering and that isn't strictly a GW problem either. I think you could put a retarted monkey in office, and these issues will clear themselves up. I'm not all that concerned with the "program." I'm more concerned about what his policies are going to do for the long haul, not the short term.

sterlingice 12-20-2008 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TroyF (Post 1906809)
I think you could put a retarted monkey in office


Nah, we've already tried that and it badly didn't work

SI

RainMaker 12-20-2008 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by astrosfan64 (Post 1906062)
Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.


Some people treat politics as a sport. They have their team and they root against the other. The country is secondary to their competitive nature.

It's an ironic twist since they are the ones who would like you to believe that they care more about their country because of their involvement in politics while in fact they aren't.

Edward64 12-20-2008 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1906395)
Bill Richardson is filthy.

I agree.

Arles 12-22-2008 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TroyF (Post 1906809)
Actually, I really don't think it matter what exactly the president does. A lot of the current mortgage crisis were due to policies put into place before GW took office. Nor were the .coms turning to crap something Bush could have prevented. The world economy is suffering and that isn't strictly a GW problem either. I think you could put a retarted monkey in office, and these issues will clear themselves up. I'm not all that concerned with the "program." I'm more concerned about what his policies are going to do for the long haul, not the short term.

Agreed. My biggest fear in all this is we get so caught up in ensuring no one ever gets laid off or loses their retirement in the market that we remove many of the incentives that make the US what it is.

There's a tight line we are about to walk between showing some compassion to people in tough times and trying to remove all risk from American life. It seems like most of the fear has been associated with straying too far from the first direction, but little has been devoted to worrying about the second. In 8 years, we will all have made it through this either way, I just hope we don't do long term damage to our fiscal/economic system to stave off a few years of pain (that we probably won't avoid anyway).

EDIT - And for those in the republican/democrat horse race, I would be just as worried about the above if McCain had been elected.

Edward64 12-28-2008 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 1886733)
Just read that Obama is considering Hillary Clinton for Sec of State. Assuming there can be a good working relationship between the 2 and Hillary can wait her turn in 8 yrs, I think she would be great. This brought me to ask what has Condi Rice done lately and honestly, without doing some deep research, I don't think she has been in the news or produced much of anything.

This got me thinking about the Obama presidency as a whole. Going into the election and reading post-election comments, there are extremely high expecation of what Obama will accomplish ... from righting the economy, ending the war in Iraq, capturing OBL, having the world love us again etc.

Outside of the economy which seems to be on cruise control to somewhere, what are your hopes and predictions?

My hopes are
  1. Some massive overhaul for healthcare to fix the problem. Not sure if socialized 100% coverage is the right solution but something beyond $5K tax credits needs to be done.
  2. Serious Energy program. Encourage alternate fuels etc. Not sure what the solution is but with gas back down to < $2, I am concerned this will no longer be the focus.
  3. Stabilize Iraq. Militarily for sure, not sure about politically. Refocus on Afghanistan and get that SOB (preferably dead).
  4. Improve world opinion of the US. I think Hillary and Bill and accomplish this!


I guess I should have added a fifth ...

5. Stabilized and peacefull Middle East.

flere-imsaho 12-29-2008 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 1910430)
I guess I should have added a fifth ...

5. Stabilized and peacefull Middle East.


You might as well ask for world peace, an end to hunger and poverty and, heck, ponies for everyone. :p

ISiddiqui 12-29-2008 09:31 AM

Well he is an Obama supporter, I'm sure he already has ;)

flere-imsaho 12-29-2008 09:37 AM

I'll have you know I put in my order for a pony before the election. If I don't get one by January 21st, I'm going to be pissed.

Mizzou B-ball fan 12-29-2008 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 1911095)
I'll have you know I put in my order for a pony before the election. If I don't get one by January 21st, I'm going to be pissed.


No winged unicorns in stock?

Buccaneer 12-29-2008 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 1911095)
I'll have you know I put in my order for a pony before the election. If I don't get one by January 21st, I'm going to be pissed.


I remembered that. Problem is they gave away the ponies to the financial execs, auto execs, labor leaders and those that got bad mortgages. No pony for you.

flere-imsaho 12-29-2008 10:54 AM

ECONOMY

Hopes:
  • U.S. out of recession by early 2010.
  • DOW back over 10,000 by 2011.
  • The Obama team figures out how to get Wall Street to finally resolve all the bad debts out there (the weakness of the American economy isn't addressed in full until this is, in my opinion).
  • In 2009, an Obama "reconstruction" plan passes Congress that is designed to rebuild the U.S. for the 21st century. It includes:
    • Substantial investment in R&D efforts for "21st century" industries, such as technology, biotechnology, pharma, green technologies, etc....
    • Infrastructure upgrades (roads, rail, ATC, internet backbone)
  • Better regulatory powers, and a will to use them intelligently, at the SEC.

Predictions:
  • U.S. out of recession by late 2010.
  • DOW goes back over 10,000 during primary season for 2012 elections.
  • Wall Street never really figures out how much bad debt is out there, but by late 2010 there's enough faith that the "Big 3" (Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America) have cleared the bulk of the liabilities that the country starts to lift out of its 2-3 year malaise in the financial markets.
  • Chrysler fails and its parts are bought up by competitors (foreign & domestic). Ford ends up needing that line of credit, but turns out OK. GM is kept on life support by the government through 2010 and restructuring starts to pay off in 2011.
  • A short-term stimulus package of tax breaks and generalized pork is passed in early 2009.
  • A long-term "reconstruction" package is finally passed in mid/late-2009 and demonstrates the first serious test of Obama's influence over Congress. Relations are soured between the White House and the Democratic leadership in Congress over the latter's lack of willingness to pass legislation over the objections of vocal minorities amongst the GOP in Congress. This drives the liberal blogosphere absolutely ballistic. The "reconstruction" package contains some forward-looking initiatives, but is also at least half pork.

SUPREME COURT

Hopes: Stevens (age: 88, reason: age), Ginsburg (75, health), Scalia (72, age), Kennedy (72, age), Breyer (70, age), and Souter (69, age/desire to retire) all retire and are replaced by young (around 50), brilliant, accomplished and just-left-of-center progressive justices. Furthermore, Thomas experiences an epiphany and changes from a reliable but incomprehensible right-wing vote to a reliable but still incomprehensible left-wing vote. Roberts decides he doesn't want to be remembered as a Chief Justice who was always in the minority and so migrates to the center. Alito doesn't change, and becomes a bitter, disillusioned man.

Predictions: Early retirements for Stevens, Ginsburg and Souter. Easy confirmations for replacements who are young (50s), left-of-center but not radical, and possess very good credentials. Later retirements for Kennedy and Breyer. More difficult confirmation for replacements due to aforementioned ineptitude of Democratic leadership in Congress and increasing hostility between them and Obama White House. Eventual replacements are confirmed with good majorities (think Roberts) and are still young (50s), left-of-center but not radical, and possess very good credentials. In these later confirmations especially, the influence of "moderate" Republicans such as John McCain and Olympia Snowe are significant.

FOREIGN POLICY

Hopes:
  • Majority of U.S. troops out of Iraq by 2010 in advance of current plan due to unexpected improvement in security and political stability.
  • Resurgent Afghanistani government and invigorated Pakistani administration, with U.S. and NATO backing, rout Taliban in border regions. Afghanistan secure enough by early 2012 to start withdrawing U.S. troops.
  • During the above operations OBL is mortally wounded by shrapnel but lives for a few days before dying. His body is discovered by Pakistani troops who overrun his position. Later, a video of OBL during his last days taken by a lapsed militant surfaces and shows a mentally enfeebled, ranting, humiliated, and afraid OBL. Negative impact to AQ recruitment & fundraising is significant.
  • The Obama administration manages to engage again-Russian President Putin on a number of military and economic concords, with the result being a less-aggressive Russia and a more open state-influenced quasi-free market state.
  • The Obama administration convinces China to institute real regulatory oversight for its factories so they stop sending deadly toys, drugs and food to the U.S.
  • Obama & Clinton manage, in 2011, to broker a "Good Friday"-type in Israel/Palestine.
  • Responding to backchannel overtures by the U.S., the Iranian Supreme Council do not support Ahmadinejad in the 2009 Presidential Election, and instead allow a "reformer" (by Iranian standards) to win the Presidency. By 2012, in response to further backchannel overtures by the U.S., the Iranians wind up their nuclear program and begin to open up their society.

Predictions:
  • U.S. troops leave Iraq on schedule in 2011 but Iraqi state remains tenuous and violence/security comes and goes.
  • A renewed emphasis on Afghanistan pushes the Taliban back and the situation by 2012 is a three-way on-and-off conflict between U.S.-supported Afghanistanis, the Taliban, and Pakistan in the border regions.
  • OBL is found dead by U.S. special forces. The U.S. claims he died of renal failure. Most of the Islamic world feels it's likely the soldiers killed him. No one ever finds out the truth.
  • Obama's charisma on the world stage isolates again-Russian President Vladimir Putin, who continues to intimidate neighbors and run Russia as a quasi-authoritarian state. Despite this, the Obama administration, through backchannel diplomacy, is able to engage Russia more often at the U.N. Security Council on various issues and is able, more than once, to play Russia off against China.
  • Nothing significant happens in relations with China.
  • Obama gets Iran to re-commit to a serious weapons inspection program, but there continue to be problems.
  • Following what's essentially a pitched war between Israel and Hamas in 2009 and 2010, Obama & Clinton broker a "cessation" agreement between the two (who have, by this time, very war-weary populaces) in 2011. It doesn't solve anything permanently, but gets the violence to stop and sets the stage for long-term shuttle talks that are still underway in 2013.

POLITICS

Hopes: Obama and Biden (Biden especially) work deftly with Democratic leaders in Congress to develop cohesive democratic voting majorities that deliver lots of progressive legislation. A thoroughly demoralized GOP loses even more seats in Congress in 2010, as the Democrats gain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Predictions: Democratic leadership in Congress continues to be weak and division in Democratic ranks is exploited by activist Republicans in Congress (more noticeable in the House) who attack legislation relentlessly and mercilessly. An Obama White House becomes increasingly frustrated with Democratic leadership and tension increases greatly in 2009 and 2010. In 2010 the GOP gains seats in the House, and many seats are won by activist "social conservatives". Despite this the Democrats pick up just enough seats in the Senate to go over 60, but the outlook for preserving those gains in 2012 looks especially bleak.


I could probably go on, but those are probably my major thoughts. Oh, and we all get ponies (hope), er, a 0.001% tax rebate (prediction). :D

flere-imsaho 12-29-2008 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1911106)
No winged unicorns in stock?


Winged unicorns are a lot more work than you think. The upkeep on that horn, for instance, gets expensive. So no, just a pony for me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buccaneer
I remembered that. Problem is they gave away the ponies to the financial execs, auto execs, labor leaders and those that got bad mortgages. No pony for you.


Well, crap.

flere-imsaho 12-29-2008 11:00 AM

FWIW, my predictions related to the Senate are based on an analysis of the seats in play for 2010. In this year there's still very little defense for the Democrats to play, and a number of Republicans who can be targeted/could be vulnerable.

Regardless of what happens, though, things start to look difficult for Democrats in the Senate from 2012 onward, with a lot of defense to play. I think it's quite likely that the GOP could be back in a slim majority by 2014, especially if the country is still in a poor economic state.

sterlingice 12-29-2008 04:22 PM

Interesting read, flere. It may be end up being completely wrong ;), but it's as good a read as exists in the thread so far.

SI

Mizzou B-ball fan 01-05-2009 08:12 AM

I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned yet, but Bill Richardson has now taken his name out of consideration for a cabinet position. Obama's aides are saying that Richardson wasn't forthcoming about the grand jury investigation during his vetting promise.

Flasch186 01-05-2009 08:31 AM

Im glad he pulled out, while I like to wait for end of investigations (instead of parallel investigations if youre wondering) before the culmination of results, it is an unnecessary distraction.

JonInMiddleGA 01-05-2009 03:26 PM

Leon Panetta for the CIA spot? Umm ... WTF?

First pick I've seen that really had me bewildered, most of the rest I can at least find rhyme or reason for whether I approve of/agree with them or not, but this one? Bizarre.

Buccaneer 01-05-2009 06:33 PM

Agreed. The first choice that I think was bad. The intelligence community was nearly destroyed under Clinton (imo) and Panetta was part of that. It must have been a favor that Obama had to pay back.

While I can understand the pick for Labor (another favor he had to cash), I hate that one. The rest are fine.

RainMaker 01-05-2009 07:00 PM

It is a puzzling move. I guess some have been saying that Panetta will simply be the face of the CIA and that he'll let the real intelligence experts run it.

flere-imsaho 01-06-2009 08:36 AM

The guesses I've seen indicate that the Obama team thinks the CIA needs a management restructuring and that this is a strong point on Panetta's resume.

I'm not sure I agree with that (the latter, I am sure that the CIA needs a once-over from a management perspective), but at least it's somewhat logical.

RainMaker 01-07-2009 02:51 PM

The Sanjay Gupta pick is interesting. The guy would certainly make a good face for the country's health movements, but his beliefs on universal healthcare seem to go against Obama.

The trouble with Sanjay Gupta - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

Vegas Vic 01-07-2009 08:16 PM


Edward64 01-17-2009 10:11 PM

Watching some news clips on Obama and his train trip. I've obviously noticed this earlier but it seemed so much more evident now with the waning days of Bush's presidency (melancholy?) ... the difference between how Obama and Bush give speechs are like night and day.

EagleFan 01-18-2009 12:08 AM

Haven't read every single post in the thread but glancing it over and surprised there is no mentin of the "A" word in the thread. Am I the only one who feels that assasination is a valid prediction for what may happen during his term?

I know this is probably going to draw a lot of flack but I have to think it is a very valid prediction. There are enough whacko groups out there that would like to see this happen and some of them are just crazy enough to try it.

I personally hope this does not happen as it's about the last thing the country needs. It would only splinter the country at a time when the country can't afford that to happen. This fact alone increases the number of groups who would be willing to try it.


Now for my hopes:

- No assasination, or even known attempt. let's get to working on fixing the current state of the country and not have to worry about another problem.
- Get the economy back on it's feet. not really something that is directlytied to Obama but at least him being elected has given some people a positive feel so let's ride that feeling to getting the economy straight.
- Companies learn that paying the top exectives and insane salary is not the answer. these executives need to be held responsible for that they do and not be given buyouts in the event that they get "fired" ("if you fail you'll get 5 million" isn't exactly and incentive to produce).
- Health care costs do not continue to skyrocket. using common sense alone can help these costs (like the number of people who go the emergency room just because they have a stomach virus or flu).
- Fix the prisons. this has been something I have always wanted to see. granted there are some crimes for which people should never see the light of day again but for others we need to make sure that we are not just punishing but rehabilitating. it helps society more if the person coming out of prison is better prepared to be part of society instead of being trained to become a better criminal.
- Stop the flow of jobs out of our borders. eliminate any tax breaks given to companies who ship jobs out of the country. add tax breaks for companies who keep all their jobs in the country. add tax penalties for companies which ship jobs out of the country. to get the country on it's feet you need joe average to be employed and capable of supporting himself.
- Alternate fuel sources. something that is realistic and not going to just raise the cost of automobiles and will also be reliable. let's find a way to cut that cord so we can eliminate the need to pacify middle eastern countries because of their oil supply.
- NCAA football playoff system. the BCS is a sooner-like fraud.

RainMaker 01-18-2009 01:12 AM

My biggest hope for the Obama Presidency would be the return of competence to our government. We've seen over the last 8 years Bush appoint political lackeys who have no business running specific parts of government (hello Brownie!). The Justice Department has turned into a laughing stock. Whether I agree with the people in power or not, lets just get back to having the brightest minds in control. Not someones fucking roommate from college.

Buccaneer 01-24-2009 10:05 AM

Interesting week under the intense microscope that is going to be the Obama presidency.

The Executive Orders were no surprise and fully expected.

There were two quips from Obama in his meeting yesterday that sounded very immature and stupid to me:

Quote:

"You can't just listen to Rush Limbaugh and get things done," he told top GOP leaders


I don't listen to that arrogant blowhard but for a president to single him out is no better than a grade school taunt, "you can't my friend if you're friends with him". Limbaugh should not be that important enough for a president to single him out.

Instead, he should have said, "I do not want anyone to believe in the failure of the presidency, thus the country. We need to get things done, which was why I built a team of rivals and ended the calls to petty partisanship."

In other words, taking the high road instead of name-calling partisanship.

Quote:

While discussing the stimulus package with top lawmakers in the White House's Roosevelt Room, President Obama shot down a critic with a simple message.

"I won," he said, according to aides who were briefed on the meeting. "I will trump you on that."


He's right, but his words were very wrong and immature. Instead, he should have said, "As president, the decision to include such proposal is mine. The merits of which can be debated in Congress."

Instead, he essentially went, "Neener neener."

From Campbell Brown, CNN:

Quote:

You see, what happened is, there is this former lobbyist for a big defense contractor called Raytheon. His name is William Lynn.

President Obama wants him to be deputy defense secretary. So, the Obama administration wants a waiver to its own rule.

That basically means they are saying, we will mostly put tough new restrictions on lobbyists, except when we won't.

Really? Is this how it is going to be?

Please, please don't make us all any more cynical than we already are, Mr. President.


Haven't we had enough of the Exectuive Branch breaking rules to suit their needs?

bob 01-24-2009 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 1925095)
Stop the flow of jobs out of our borders. eliminate any tax breaks given to companies who ship jobs out of the country. add tax breaks for companies who keep all their jobs in the country. add tax penalties for companies which ship jobs out of the country. to get the country on it's feet you need joe average to be employed and capable of supporting himself.


So here's my problem with this kind of thinking given this era of globalization (btw, I certainly don't like the idea of offshoring jobs):

What's an American firm? A company with headquarters in the US? A company that makes products entirely in the US? How do you define that. Start taxing the hell out of firms and they will "move" entirely outside of the US.

People can't have it both ways - you can't bitch and moan about companies going overseas because of cost cutting ways and then buy stuff made overseas at Walmart b/c that's the cheapest price available. And if you are restricted from competing by moving jobs overseas b/c of punitive taxes, American firms will be at a huge cost disadvantage in the global marketplace and will all go belly up.

EagleFan 01-24-2009 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 1930246)
So here's my problem with this kind of thinking given this era of globalization (btw, I certainly don't like the idea of offshoring jobs):

What's an American firm? A company with headquarters in the US? A company that makes products entirely in the US? How do you define that. Start taxing the hell out of firms and they will "move" entirely outside of the US.

People can't have it both ways - you can't bitch and moan about companies going overseas because of cost cutting ways and then buy stuff made overseas at Walmart b/c that's the cheapest price available. And if you are restricted from competing by moving jobs overseas b/c of punitive taxes, American firms will be at a huge cost disadvantage in the global marketplace and will all go belly up.


There needs to be common sense logic built into this. Obviously if you are a store that is opening a branch in another country you are going to be employing people from that country.

I'll use my company as an example. Our "leadership" has funneled development jobs off to India though we are a US based company. We cannot sell our product in India as casino gaming is outlawed in the country and there is not anything close to being in the works to change that.

The excuse is that we can hire X number more developers per US resource but the turnover rate is so great that we are not gaining anything from this as the rate of development and quality of the product has dropped severely.

Any of the developers that are good enough to keep end up being brought to the US to work with visas (at US salaries which kind of ruins the whole "we are saving money in salaries" idea).

Over the past two years we have lost in the area of 1000 years of casino experience and that has been replaces with Indian resources with 0 casino experience, and worse yet most are fresh out of school and have no real world development experience. The IT field is seen as the "easy money" field in India and because of tht there are people graduating with degrees because they can memorize some terms but do not have the mindset to apply these terms in practice.


I guess the big picture problem still goes back to the people running the corporations not being held accountable for their decisions. They make decisions based on how they can sell the idea to the share holders even if the idea is not ultimately in the best interest of the company. Then when things go wrong and the company has to cut costs it's the people who need their jobs the most who get screwed while the CEO's sit back and collect their obscenely inflated checks. How does the CEO get "punished" for running the corporation poorly? Millions in stock options and a contract buyout. That'll teach 'em...


Sorry for the rant, just getting a little fed up with the business as usual crap going on and seeing good people lose their jobs because they are being replaced over seas.


I just hope those that are supporting the idea of change and improving the country also know they have to get off their butts to make this happen and don't think that Obama is just going to wave a magic wand and make it happen so they don't have to do anything.


Also, it's not our responsibility to make sure the other countries of the world are employed. We need to look after ourselves first before we look outside our borders. If your own family is starving THAT is your priority, not the family across the street.

Edward64 01-24-2009 09:35 PM

Pretty neat, an unanticipated Obama 'hope' that may rank pretty high up there as far as domestic, long-term impact. Some possible holes in the study but still interesting.

Lab Notes : An 'Obama Effect' on Blacks' Test Scores?
Quote:

The results varied according to when the students took the test. Before the convention and in early October, the performance gap was as wide as ever: white students got a median score of 12.1 compared to blacks’ 8.8 before the convention; the scores were 12.9 and 8.4, respectively, in early October. But just after Obama’s convention speech, and just after election day, “when Obama’s stereotype-defying accomplishments garnered national attention,” as the researchers put it, there was a remarkable effect. Among students who watched Obama’s speech, blacks’ and whites’ scores were statistically equal (10.3 vs. 12.1) after the acceptance speech and 9.8 vs. 11.1 after election day. The difference is considered statistically insignificant--that is, likely due to chance.

JonInMiddleGA 01-24-2009 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 1925095)
Haven't read every single post in the thread but glancing it over and surprised there is no mentin of the "A" word in the thread. Am I the only one who feels that assasination is a valid prediction for what may happen during his term?


Not at all, but I hope you get a better reaction than I got for mentioning that a few weeks (months?) ago.

FWIW, I believe the unprecedented level of security in DC this past week might be an indication that you & I aren't the only people who have this on the list of significant possibilities.

Edward64 01-24-2009 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 1930312)
The excuse is that we can hire X number more developers per US resource but the turnover rate is so great that we are not gaining anything from this as the rate of development and quality of the product has dropped severely.

Any of the developers that are good enough to keep end up being brought to the US to work with visas (at US salaries which kind of ruins the whole "we are saving money in salaries" idea)..

I'm in the IT consulting industry and have seen the technical jobs go offshore (good thing PM's and SME's are still needed onsite). It has been my experience that offshore does ultimately produce the necessary 'blended rate' to make us competitive and one-way-or-another, the job gets done even factoring the issues of turnover, language etc.

My issue with offshoring is that I believe we should keep some key intellectual capital within the US. I don't have a clean description of intellectual capital but think development of Oracle DB/SaaS Apps vs development of latest version of Quicken/compilers/games. As time goes by and as other countries catch up the definition changes.

sterlingice 01-25-2009 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 1930246)
So here's my problem with this kind of thinking given this era of globalization (btw, I certainly don't like the idea of offshoring jobs):

What's an American firm? A company with headquarters in the US? A company that makes products entirely in the US? How do you define that. Start taxing the hell out of firms and they will "move" entirely outside of the US.

People can't have it both ways - you can't bitch and moan about companies going overseas because of cost cutting ways and then buy stuff made overseas at Walmart b/c that's the cheapest price available. And if you are restricted from competing by moving jobs overseas b/c of punitive taxes, American firms will be at a huge cost disadvantage in the global marketplace and will all go belly up.


I don't understand this argument some of these arguments again US protectionism.

1) It's not as if those firms are being taxed horribly as it is. Yes, the percentage is high. However, with lots of corporate loopholes, the corporate taxes in this country aren't nearly as high as they are being made out to be. When you can deduct all levels of crap- I imagine that with a good tax lawyer, corporations are paying much less than they would in other countries. Or they are at least competitive because it's not as if these companies are staying here just for name's sake. If they could save a buck and move to, say, the Cayman Islands for a corporate account, they would have already.

2) A lot of companies could only exist in this country. It's not as if you could open up a Starbucks in China and charge $5 a cup of coffee when their middle class makes barely $10K per year.

3) I do strongly agree with the first part of the final sentiment- people love to complain about service or selection and then go for the cheapest price. Search my history and I'm sure I've used my Ultimate Electronics/Best Buy analogy a couple of times. However, I disagree with the second- see my second point. Look at what Microsoft or most major pharmaceutical companies do- they sell at one price here and then substantially less in other places.

SI

Klinglerware 01-25-2009 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 1930672)

2) A lot of companies could only exist in this country. It's not as if you could open up a Starbucks in China and charge $5 a cup of coffee when their middle class makes barely $10K per year.



Price-tiering is of course a little different, but they are all over the place...

Starbucks International Sites

Starbucks plans China expansion, 80 new stores to open in 2008 | China Briefing News

flere-imsaho 01-26-2009 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 1930476)
My issue with offshoring is that I believe we should keep some key intellectual capital within the US. I don't have a clean description of intellectual capital but think development of Oracle DB/SaaS Apps vs development of latest version of Quicken/compilers/games.


I agree with this. I'd like the government to get more involved in R&D grants for tech. Maybe have the government get a bit into the VC game, in some way.

Galaxy 01-26-2009 09:58 PM

Not liking this move by Obama on allowing states to set its own auto emission requirements.

Obama to let states set auto emission rules - CNN.com

JPhillips 01-26-2009 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 1931744)
Not liking this move by Obama on allowing states to set its own auto emission requirements.

Obama to let states set auto emission rules - CNN.com


Why? Isn't this a great example of state's rights?

JPhillips 01-26-2009 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klinglerware (Post 1930674)
Price-tiering is of course a little different, but they are all over the place...

Starbucks International Sites

Starbucks plans China expansion, 80 new stores to open in 2008 | China Briefing News


I'm a little ashamed to say that I bought a Starbucks tea at the Forbidden City. I think I read, though, that that store has been closed.

Galaxy 01-26-2009 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1931747)
Why? Isn't this a great example of state's rights?



It would be a huge blow to an auto industry that your trying to save.

Mizzou B-ball fan 01-28-2009 10:51 AM

Interesting reads about the Gitmo executive order. It appears the order was done to satisfy the liberal base while not actually changing much of anything. The executive order actually still allows for the same torture that was done in the Bush Administration when needed.

Jack Bauer Exception: Obama's Order Wants It Both Ways on Interrogations - WSJ.com

A walkthrough of the executive order section by section......

President Obama: Close Gitmo! | A Soldier's Perspective

Klinglerware 01-28-2009 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1931748)
I'm a little ashamed to say that I bought a Starbucks tea at the Forbidden City. I think I read, though, that that store has been closed.


Yeah, they are literally all over the place. Expressway rest stops in the Philippines? Yep they've got 'em. Lunch meeting with my clients in Chile? No problem, we can grab a quick sandwich and frappucino at Starbucks downstairs...

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 07:41 AM

Looks like Obama has taken even more behind the scenes shortcuts regarding torture and holding terrorists. The Bush administration was hammered for sending detained terrorists to other countries to be detained and tortured (also called renditions). Turns out that Obama is actually going to INCREASE that policy.

Hot Air » Blog Archive » Surprise! Obama expands renditions

So yeah, he's shutting down Gitmo, but he's also effectively increasing the amount of torture on the detainees. They'll be more poorly treated in other countries, but at least the blood's not on our hands, right? It'll be interesting to see if the same liberals that decried this tactic will blast Obama for increasing the use of this policy rather than reducing it.

Flasch186 02-02-2009 07:59 AM

I see Blog (also the appropriate Hot Air) in the link so Ill pass. Show me a legitimate link and we all can either get on board with you or leave you on your island.

flere-imsaho 02-02-2009 08:34 AM

The blog post references a L.A. Times article: Obama preserves renditions as counter-terrorism tool - Los Angeles Times

Edit: Having said that, the blog post makes a lot of assumptions that the L.A. Times article treats very differently.

Edit #2: For instance:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan
Looks like Obama has taken even more behind the scenes shortcuts regarding torture and holding terrorists.


The L.A. Times article's assessment is that Obama's executive order actually limits pretty much everything considerably more than Bush's policy, but keeps open an option for short-term, "transitory" rendition which is, admittedly, a big grey area.

To quote the article:

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. Times
Under executive orders issued by Obama recently, the CIA still has authority to carry out what are known as renditions, secret abductions and transfers of prisoners to countries that cooperate with the United States.

Current and former U.S. intelligence officials said that the rendition program might be poised to play an expanded role going forward because it was the main remaining mechanism -- aside from Predator missile strikes -- for taking suspected terrorists off the street.


Emphasis mine.

"Hot Air", however, takes this statement and transforms it into:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hot Air
Obama has had a sudden revelation as President that renditions are more necessary than ever, if the CIA can’t hold these subjects at Gitmo or its own secret sites


Next, a rationale from (supposedly) an Obama Administration source:

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. Times
"Obviously you need to preserve some tools -- you still have to go after the bad guys," said an Obama administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity when discussing the legal reasoning. "The legal advisors working on this looked at rendition. It is controversial in some circles and kicked up a big storm in Europe. But if done within certain parameters, it is an acceptable practice."

One provision in one of Obama’s orders appears to preserve the CIA's ability to detain and interrogate terrorism suspects as long as they are not held long-term. The little-noticed provision states that the instructions to close the CIA's secret prison sites "do not refer to facilities used only to hold people on a short-term, transitory basis."


And not everyone "on the left" is immediately against this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. Times
"Under limited circumstances, there is a legitimate place" for renditions, said Tom Malinowski, the Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch. "What I heard loud and clear from the president's order was that they want to design a system that doesn't result in people being sent to foreign dungeons to be tortured -- but that designing that system is going to take some time."

Malinowski said he had urged the Obama administration to stipulate that prisoners could be transferred only to countries where they would be guaranteed a public hearing in an official court. "Producing a prisoner before a real court is a key safeguard against torture, abuse and disappearance," Malinowski said.


Still, intelligence veterans doubt there's a significant place of value in America's policy for renditions going forward:

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. Times
CIA veterans involved in renditions characterized the program as important but of limited intelligence-gathering use. It is used mainly for terrorism suspects not considered valuable enough for the CIA to keep, they said.

"The reason we did interrogations [ourselves] is because renditions for the most part weren't very productive," said a former senior CIA official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject.

The most valuable intelligence on Al Qaeda came from prisoners who were in CIA custody and questioned by agency experts, the official said. Once prisoners were turned over to Egypt, Jordan or elsewhere, the agency had limited influence over how much intelligence was shared, how prisoners were treated and whether they were later released.

"In some ways, [rendition] is the worst option," the former official said. "If they are in U.S. hands, you have a lot of checks and balances, medics and lawyers. Once you turn them over to another service, you lose control."


Of course, "Hot Air" takes issue with these conclusions:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hot Air
Frankly, I think the US does a better job of treating its detainees than anywhere a rendition program would deliver them, but without a Gitmo or CIA holding site, that’s the only way to ensure that we can get any intelligence that will protect the US.


To summarize, here's "Hot Air's listing of interrogation venues in terms of effectiveness:

1. Torture by U.S. at Gitmo/secret CIA holding sites
2. Torture by foreign governments at U.S.'s behest
3. Legal interrogation by U.S. at U.S. sites

Here's CIA veterans' listing of interrogation venues in terms of effectiveness (note they don't mention Gitmo):

1. Legal interrogation by U.S. at U.S. sites
2. Torture by foreign governments at U.S.'s behest

And anyway, the policy is evolving and not final yet:

Quote:

Originally Posted by L.A. Times
In his executive order on lawful interrogations, Obama created a task force to reexamine renditions to make sure that they "do not result in the transfer of individuals to other nations to face torture," or otherwise circumvent human rights laws and treaties.


So anyway, read the L.A. Times article, not the blog.

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flasch186 (Post 1936239)
I see Blog (also the appropriate Hot Air) in the link so Ill pass. Show me a legitimate link and we all can either get on board with you or leave you on your island.


There's an article link to the LA Times. I'm assuming that paper is right up your alley given your previous stances in political threads.

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 1936249)
The blog post references a L.A. Times article: Obama preserves renditions as counter-terrorism tool - Los Angeles Times

Edit: Having said that, the blog post makes a lot of assumptions that the L.A. Times article treats very differently.


Agreed, but that's to be expected given that it's the LA Times. It's a conservative blog citing a liberal newspaper article. Both of them have an inherent bias.

sterlingice 02-02-2009 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1936254)
Agreed, but that's to be expected given that it's the LA Times. It's a conservative blog citing a liberal newspaper article. Both of them have an inherent bias.


How is it a liberal newspaper article? Is it because it's in newspaper print?

Never mind, I should know my audience here: "Paper bad. Fox News good."

SI

flere-imsaho 02-02-2009 08:55 AM

I've made edits to my post which expand on that.

I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine which source is reporting the news and which source is using misguided assumptions to make spurious conclusions based on a sliver of the news.

:D

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 1936257)
How is it a liberal newspaper article? Is it because it's in newspaper print?

SI


It's an article in a liberal newspaper. That suit your nitpicking better?

Listen, as a supporter of Bush's terrorism policies, I couldn't be happier about the decision. I'm just surprised that there's not more outrage by the liberal supporters that Obama is failing to follow through with most of his promises regarding torture. Perhaps their motives weren't as sincere as we previously thought.

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 1936258)
I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine which source is reporting the news and which source is using misguided assumptions to make spurious conclusions based on a sliver of the news.

:D


Agreed. It's a wonder the LA Times is even considered a valid news source at this point. ;)

Ronnie Dobbs2 02-02-2009 09:04 AM

Mizzou, you must go through life constantly surprised by things based on the number of times you post that you're surprised on this board.

flere-imsaho 02-02-2009 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1936260)
I'm just surprised that there's not more outrage by the liberal supporters that Obama is failing to follow through with most of his promises regarding torture.


That's probably because Obama has, in fact, followed through with most of his promises regarding torture.

Senator 02-02-2009 09:16 AM

When do I get my president's check?

JPhillips 02-02-2009 09:17 AM

This is a good summary of what's actually in the Presidential order. From Hilzoy:

Quote:

If the LA Times is right to claim that the Obama administration has left open the possibility of extraordinary renditions, that would be a huge problem. However, I don't think it is. Here it helps to have spent some time reading the actual orders. The order called "Ensuring Lawful Interrogations" contains the following passage:

"Sec. 6. Construction with Other Laws. Nothing in this order shall be construed to affect the obligations of officers, employees, and other agents of the United States Government to comply with all pertinent laws and treaties of the United States governing detention and interrogation, including but not limited to: the Fifth and Eighth Amendments to the United States Constitution; the Federal torture statute, 18 U.S.C. 2340 2340A; the War Crimes Act, 18 U.S.C. 2441; the Federal assault statute, 18 U.S.C. 113; the Federal maiming statute, 18 U.S.C. 114; the Federal "stalking" statute, 18 U.S.C. 2261A; articles 93, 124, 128, and 134 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, 10 U.S.C. 893, 924, 928, and 934; section 1003 of the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005, 42 U.S.C. 2000dd; section 6(c) of the Military Commissions Act of 2006, Public Law 109 366; the Geneva Conventions; and the Convention Against Torture. Nothing in this order shall be construed to diminish any rights that any individual may have under these or other laws and treaties."

Part 1, Article 3 of the Convention Against Torture states:

"1. No State Party shall expel, return ("refouler") or extradite a person to another State where there are substantial grounds for believing that he would be in danger of being subjected to torture.

2. For the purpose of determining whether there are such grounds, the competent authorities shall take into account all relevant considerations including, where applicable, the existence in the State concerned of a consistent pattern of gross, flagrant or mass violations of human rights."

Obama orders people to comply with the Convention Against Torture, and that Convention states that we cannot return people to states where there are substantial grounds to believe that they will be tortured. And nothing the Obama administration has done to date suggests to me that they would engage in the kinds of creative reading of legal documents that would allow them, say, to disregard Egypt's long record of torture in making this determination.

Moreover, Obama's Executive Order also establishes a commission one of whose goals is:

"to study and evaluate the practices of transferring individuals to other nations in order to ensure that such practices comply with the domestic laws, international obligations, and policies of the United States and do not result in the transfer of individuals to other nations to face torture or otherwise for the purpose, or with the effect, of undermining or circumventing the commitments or obligations of the United States to ensure the humane treatment of individuals in its custody or control."

So in addition to announcing that the administration will obey the Convention Against Torture, the administration will also study not whether to send detainees off to be tortured, but how to ensure that our policies are not intended to result in their torture, and will not result in their torture. This seems to me like a very clear renunciation of the policy of sending people to third countries to be tortured. His executive order also precludes any kind of secret detention of prisoners, and thus "secret abductions and transfers of prisoners":

"All departments and agencies of the Federal Government shall provide the International Committee of the Red Cross with notification of, and timely access to, any individual detained in any armed conflict in the custody or under the effective control of an officer, employee, or other agent of the United States Government or detained within a facility owned, operated, or controlled by a department or agency of the United States Government, consistent with Department of Defense regulations and policies."

Note that this has no exceptions for short-term detainees whom we quickly hand off to someone else.

DaddyTorgo 02-02-2009 09:29 AM

bawhaha


JPhillips wins.

Flasch186 02-02-2009 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 1936252)
There's an article link to the LA Times. I'm assuming that paper is right up your alley given your previous stances in political threads.


naw, but Flere sure lit it up didnt he :lol:

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1936271)
This is a good summary of what's actually in the Presidential order. From Hilzoy:


You're right. It's an excellent summary. It notes the following:

Quote:

"1. No State Party shall expel, return ("refouler") or extradite a person to another State where there are substantial grounds for believing that he would be in danger of being subjected to torture.

2. For the purpose of determining whether there are such grounds, the competent authorities shall take into account all relevant considerations including, where applicable, the existence in the State concerned of a consistent pattern of gross, flagrant or mass violations of human rights."

All of that is VERY subjective and assumes that the U.S. government has full disclosure of what occurs overseas in other countries. Even in cases where they do have a high level of disclosure, there still is no guarantee of a decrease of torture. The increase in exportation of these suspects takes the direct monitoring of independent groups that is done at Gitmo to places where direct monitoring likely will not be allowed.

Quote:

"to study and evaluate the practices of transferring individuals to other nations in order to ensure that such practices comply with the domestic laws, international obligations, and policies of the United States and do not result in the transfer of individuals to other nations to face torture or otherwise for the purpose, or with the effect, of undermining or circumventing the commitments or obligations of the United States to ensure the humane treatment of individuals in its custody or control."

In regards to any studies done by the government, count me as unimpressed. There's a laundry list of studies that were done by the government on various issues where they 'thoroughly' talked through an issue and totally failed to address the real problem. A glaring example is the sub-prime mortgage mess we're currently in.

JPhillips 02-02-2009 10:01 AM

I'd agree that the possibility exists of continuing the Bush extraordinary rendition practice. However, at this point we have ample text that says the opposite, no evidence that any loophole has been exploited, and a consistent tone about ending detention/interrogation policies that may be in violation of US or international law.

If there's a story here at all it's simply that the possibility exists of Obama doing the opposite of what he's said. If that comes to pass it will be a big deal, but until it does I don't see any smoke here.

JPhillips 02-02-2009 10:06 AM

dola

It's almost beyond my ability to understand how the same people that a few months ago spent all their time yelling that Obama was a radical, Marxist, terrorist lover now spend all their time yelling that Obama isn't anything like the radical, Marxist, terrorist lover that Democrats thought he was.

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1936294)
I'd agree that the possibility exists of continuing the Bush extraordinary rendition practice. However, at this point we have ample text that says the opposite, no evidence that any loophole has been exploited, and a consistent tone about ending detention/interrogation policies that may be in violation of US or international law.

If there's a story here at all it's simply that the possibility exists of Obama doing the opposite of what he's said. If that comes to pass it will be a big deal, but until it does I don't see any smoke here.


That's basically correct. We don't have any smoke or loophole exploits because he's just started his term. We'll obviously have to wait a couple of years to get a feel for how it's actually implemented by Obama's staff.

Here's the problem for Obama politically as I see it.

1. He has not unilaterally rolled back the torture policies of Bush. That may upset some who wanted a much broader brushstroke on this issue.

2. Although he did not fully rollback the torture policies, he has come out with the executive order and made sure to claim success with the order. As a result, any attack on the U.S. during his term will be immediately tied to the rollback of those policies, whether it's fair or not (or even relevant).

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-02-2009 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 1936295)
dola

It's almost beyond my ability to understand how the same people that a few months ago spent all their time yelling that Obama was a radical, Marxist, terrorist lover now spend all their time yelling that Obama isn't anything like the radical, Marxist, terrorist lover that Democrats thought he was.


Agreed. The radical left is probably wondering exactly what they elected while the radical right is counting their blessings that his policies aren't nearly as black and white as he claimed during the electoral process.

Buccaneer 02-09-2009 06:03 PM

One of my fears appears to be coming true.

Quote:

Utah's congressional delegation is calling President Obama's decision to move the U.S. census into the White House a purely partisan move and potentially dangerous to congressional redistricting around the country.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, told FOX News on Monday that he finds it hard to believe the Obama administration felt the need to place re-evaluation of the inner workings of the census so high on his to-do list, just three weeks into his presidency.

"This is nothing more than a political land grab," Chaffetz said.

Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, told the Salt Lake Tribune that the move "shouldn't happen." He and Chaffetz are trying to rally Republicans "before its too late."

"It takes something that is supposedly apolitical like the census, and gives it to a guy who is infamously political," Bishop said of Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who would be tasked with overseeing the census at the White House.

The U.S. census -- a counting of the U.S. population -- is conducted every 10 years by the Commerce Department. Its results determine the decennial redrawing of congressional districts

As a matter of impact, the census has tremendous political significance. Political parties are always eager to have a hand in redrawing districts so that they can maximize their own party's clout while minimizing the opposition, often through gerrymandering.

The census also determines the composition of the Electoral College, which chooses the president. If one party were to control the census, it could arguably try to perpetuate its hold on political power.

The results of the census are also enormously important in another way -- the allocation of federal funds. Theoretically, a political party could disproportionately steer federal funding to areas dominated by its own members through a skewing of census numbers.

At this point the White House doesn't seem willing to say what Emanuel's role will be in overseeing the census, and White House officials say census managers will work closely with top-level White House staffers, but will technically remain part of the Commerce Department.

But critics say the White House chief of staff can't be expected to handle the census in a neutral manner. Emanuel ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the 2006 election, and he was instrumental in getting Democrats elected into the majority.

"The last thing the census needs is for any hard-bitten partisan (either a Karl Rove or a Rahm Emanuel) to manipulate these critical numbers. Many federal funding formulas depend on them, as well as the whole fabric of federal and state representation. Partisans have a natural impulse to tilt the playing field in their favor, and this has to be resisted," Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told FOX News in an e-mail.

Critics note that the method of counting can skew the census. Democrats have long advocated using mathematical estimates, a practice known as "sampling," to count urban residents and immigrants. Republicans say the Constitution requires a physical head count, which entails going door-to-door.

In 2000, Utah, which has three congressmen, was extremely close to landing a fourth House seat based on U.S. Census numbers, but the nation's most conservative state fell short by a few hundred votes because the Census Bureau wouldn't count Mormon missionaries from Utah serving temporarily overseas.

The GOP took the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, but was ultimately unsuccessful. Utah leaders had hoped the 2010 census would rectify the problem, but now worry that they will lose again if the census is managed by partisans.

When Obama nominated New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to be commerce secretary -- he was later forced to withdraw -- he indicated that Richardson would be in charge of the census.

The decision to move the census into the White House was announced just days after Obama named New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg, a Republican, to be his commerce secretary. Gregg has long opposed "sampling" by the census and has voted against funding increases for the bureau.

Sabato said moving the census "in-house" will likely set up a situation where neither the Commerce Department nor the White House will know exactly what is going on in the Census Bureau. He said the process is "too critical to politics for both parties not to pay close attention."

"I've always remembered what Joseph Stalin said: 'Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.' The same principle applies to the census. Since one or the other party will always be in power at the time of the census, it is vital that the out-of-power party at least be able to observe the process to make sure it isn't being stacked in favor of the party in power. This will be difficult for the GOP since I suspect Democrats will control both houses of Congress for the entire Obama first term," Sabato said.

FOX News' Bill Sammon and Shannon Bream contributed to this report.



I have worked with Census data off and on for 30 years, as well as studied the methodologies for counting and their political ramifications. There have always been political crap going on with Census data but at least keeping it in Commerce, you can count some measure of neutrality (or balancing). But to have the White House (and esp. Rove2: Emanuel) controlling the output, that would be stupid. I guess we'll see if anything comes of this and if it does, will it be ignored with the WH not being held accountable?

JPhillips 02-09-2009 08:07 PM

Dr. President Obama,

Use fewer sentences.

Thanx. Bye.


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