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I have lived in states where registered independents could vote in party primaries. You just, obviously, couldn't vote in more than one primary. |
I am a registered Independent. We're allowed to vote in the South Carolina primaries.
I voted for the forces of good. |
I understand that. I mean why do it in states that don't have open primaries?
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I registered as an Independent in Arizona because at the time I didn't realize that it wasn't an open primary state.
That was five years ago and I'm going to get around to changing that one of these days. But seriously, I have never changed it because I work for state government and am not interested in being identified as a member or a supporter of any political party. Bad for the career. |
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I was registered Republican my whole life until last election cycle, when I changed my registration to Libertarian. I did it solely as a protest, though. Since leaving there at 19, I've never lived in a state that was a 'swing' state in an election year and as a result, it makes it easier for me to vote my conscious except in close races or situations where I have a strong preference one way or another. I don't think it's worthwhile to vote for the "major" party candidates solely to "have a say" because in the end, if you're willing to sacrifice your ideas because of a flawed system and to have token participation, then really, you're agreeing with the idea that the system ought to be the way it is and the people with the most money and influence ought to get to dominate the landscape. If fewer people with convictions thought "screw this, I'm going to vote the way I want to vote rather than believing I can't impact anything," especially in local races, more 'change' would happen organically as a result. But as it stands now, people are either willing to stand pat, participate nominally or not at all and it's in part responsible for why we're in a lot of the situations we are from top to bottom politically. Now that I'm moving from here, I'll change my registration again before this November when I re-register to vote, but...it'll probably be to Republican again, rather than independent. Mostly because I used to be and depending on where I am, I figure it's more useful to be involved locally in a party even if you disagree with the federal issues than to just sit out if you're close on things. But where I live now, I had little use for the partisan yokels who ran things and so, I just wanted no parts of working with any of them. |
These shouldn't be taken too seriously, but Drudge has exit polls for 14 states on their website- Obama ahead in 9 of them, Clinton in 5. They have him with 75% in Georgia so we'll see how accurate it is now that Georgia poll numbers start coming in.
Obama is now the projected winner of Georgia. Republicans too close to call. |
Ummmm if race is playing no part in the Dems race, why is everyone so concerned about whether white male voters would vote for him?
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I don't think anyone cares except the media.
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There has just been a huge shift in the Intrade share prices for the Democratic nomination. Obama shares are now trading at 58.8 and Clinton shares are trading at 42.0.
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As a registered independent since the 1980 election, it is a matter of principle and continued distaste for big-machine, party politics. I have not and will not register as a R or D to vote in the primaries, no matter how much the machines want me to do so. |
I'm trying to remember what the GA polls had shown. Early results has Obama up by +37%. (I know, probably just one precinct in downtown Atlanta)
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McCain wins Illinois and New Jersey. Romney wins Massachussetts. John McCain wins Connecticut.
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Huckabee won Alabama. Georgia too close to call between Huckabee and McCain.
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Barack Obama has won Illinois. Hillary Clinton has won Oklahoma.
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So I just saw the only 1 minute of Super Tuesday coverage I have seen all day. CBS taught me (because their own words came out sounding like this) that Obama won Georgia because he is black and lots of black people voted today, and the it's pretty shocking that white men would vote for Obama over Clinton.
I think I have seen CBS national news once or twice in the last couple years, and now I know why. Is the rest of the coverage so brilliant and racist sounding? |
The Exit Polls have Romney winning Mass -- surprised that they're so convincing he'd be projected to win!
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Hillary Clinton has won Tennessee.
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CNN has it "too close to call." |
I saw it on MSNBC.
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I have also learned that Clinton is winning because women are voting for her. |
Tennessee has been bouncing all over the place. Saw at one point it was 76-16 Clinton over Edwards, then 45-40 Obama over Clinton, then 49-40 Clinton over Obama...
Yay small sample size. |
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I saw this also. My question is how do they have enough information to declare her the winner when she is only up by 4% with less then one percent of the vote in? |
I wouldn't trust exit polls today.
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Exit polls... |
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Exit polling I guess. Maybe it showed her with a big lead. I'm not sure how they called it so early when it's so close, but they did. The obvious ones like Obama in Georgia make sense, but Tennesee didn't when it was still fairly close. But MSNBC reported it so it must be true. |
Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee have won Arkansas.
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Georgia got a lot more interesting! Went from 38-33-25 (Huckabee-McCain-Romney) to 34-31-31!!
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It's now 52-47 Obama over Hillary on intrade. John McCain has won Delaware. |
Mass is going to be too close to call, I think. Obama has steadily held on to a small (but notable) lead in CT...
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CNN is now calling Tennessee for Clinton.
Have there been any surprises yet? |
I find Clinton projecting to win OK telling on a couple of fronts. Sort of like winning Utah.
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No surprises yet. Hillary has a 10% lead in Missouri.
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Huckabee winning a Southern state other than Arkansas. |
Huckabee winning Georgia and sweeping the south would be a surprise. Obama pulling off upsets in Mass. or N.J. would be as well, but Clinton is leading both at the moment.
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Obama is opening up the lead in CT... what were the polls going into today, there?
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So, what does that mean, Huckabee winning some southern states? Does that mean McCain wins this thing easily, or does it make it a race?
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Race with whom? Huckabee? Hardly. |
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McCain is prone to gaffes, so who knows. If Romney is able to take a good chunk of the California delegates and keep McCain far from the magic number, Huckabee might have time to organize. The most likely result of a Huckabee Southern sweep would be for him to pledge support to McCain in exchange for VP consideration. Huckabee will never have the money to flat-out beat McCain. |
The rcp average had it 42-38 Hillary in connecticut polls.
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New Jersey, Massachussets, and Missouri aren't even close. Hillary is leading them all by double digits.
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Then it would depend upon CA. :( |
The delegate splits will make this interesting for the Democrats. Apparently in a couple of states (Mass. at least) it's possible that the winner of the popular vote could actually end up with less delegates. In other states, big wins in popular votes won't necessarily mean big wins in delegates. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Hillary Clinton declared projected winner in Massachussetts.
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I think Huckabee would be more likely than Romney to get the VP nod. McCain needs somebody to inspire the conservative wing of the GOP to vote in November unless Hillary gets the nod. |
Hillary Clinton has won New York.
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In looking at the early Kansas results, it probably says that all of the Dems are concentrated in Lawrence.
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Barack Obama has won Delaware.
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Hillary Clinton has taken back the lead on intrade.
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Fox News projects Hillary Clinton the winner of New Jersey.
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One thing to keep in mind is that big cities tend to report late. I would expect some of these large Clinton margins (like in Mass, NJ, MO) to come down a bit as the night wears on. Whether it will be enough for Obama to take the lead, we'll see.
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John McCain wins New York and all of its delegates.
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Even though Obama has lost Mass and N.J and maybe Missouri, there's still Minnesota and Kansas where he's leading the very early results, the whole southwest, Utah, Montana, and California.
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Romney's "Debacle in the South" appears to be real. How much did he campaign there? Yankee Northeasterner just don't play well there.
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Barack Obama wins Alabama.
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The almost landslide in Missouri is really the only thing that has kind of surprised me so far. And I am an Obama supporter. Going into these primaries he was close in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, and Missouri. He is leading in Connecticut and Alabama. And like I said, Missouri has kind of surprsied me. We got the whole western half of the nation though. Let's go California.
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If Cali is a 50/50 split and everything else stays as it is right now (with the exception of the big city effect making Obama closer but not winning some states), I think we know absolutely no more than we did going into tonight. Which favors Obama, because as time goes on he has had a steady upward trend with not many blips.
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I can't help but think the Huckabee upsets in both wins and number 2 positions puts him in the power seat. Would he be willing to be a number 2 to either canidate? I really wonder. I have a feeling it would be hard for him to run with McCain, but he would have to throw a lot of support on Romney for the rest of the way (and very quicly) for it to make any difference for Mitt.
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I'm surprised that Clinton appears to have won Mass. so easily. I thought the Kerry and Kennedy clan endorsements would make that a very tight one.
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Not surprised since if only because I've seen Obama ads here and no Clinton ads. |
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Mass. Dems can talk about peace, love and brotherhood with the best of them but when it comes down to it, there are still some old-school issues. |
So far Hillary has 160 total delegates to Obama's 109, not counting super delegates.
So far John McCain has 291 delegates to Romney's 91 and Huckabee's 58. |
John McCain wins Oklahoma.
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Mitt Romney wins Utah.
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Barack Obama wins North Dakota.
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Barack Obama wins Utah.
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I agree. I see it everyday here. |
Romney had been trying to position himself as "A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain".. but from what I've seen.. Huckabee's done well, but any delegates he's taking would be from ROmney.
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Sounds like Huckabee is going to keep marching on.
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Love this note from Real Clear Politics:
9:13PM - A note to the media: Mike Huckabee is not dead. He's ahead narrowly in Missouri, has already won Arkansas, Alabama and West Virginia and looks competitive in Arizona. If today is a bad day for Mitt Romney, it's a great day for Huckabee. Of course, if the Republican race comes down to a McCain-Huckabee battle, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter will be hurling themselves from windows later this evening. - REID WILSON |
Barack Obama wins Kansas.
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Fox News projects Barack Obama wins Connecticut.
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Looks like it's been mostly the South and West for Obama versus mostly the Northeast for Hillary.
Sounds familiar somehow. |
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There is no data to suggest that Huckabee voters would have voted for Romney if Huckabee wasn't in the race. Exit polling in Florida indicated that McCain was the second choice of the majority of Huckabee's voters. In light of what has happened tonight, you could make a strong case that Romney is taking votes away from Huckabee. |
Of the states that haven't been called yet, Mike Huckabee is leading Georgia and Missouri over McCain, Barack Obama is leading Minnesota by a considerable margin, Mitt Romney is leading Minnesota over McCain. Hillary still up big in Missouri. Obama up big in Colorado and Idaho.
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What states are still voting.
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I believe that's a case of people seriously trying to fuck with the exit pollers (which was an interesting topic of conversation on the Atlanta radio coverage tonight, by some of the more serious local analysts/straight news people, not the talkshow types). I can't begin to imagine any Huckabee voter going with McCain over Romney for any reason other than the distrust of Mormon issue. |
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I didn't say he was. I was discussing him as using his position as a running mate, if he was interested. I would guess if pushed he would rather run with Romney than McCain, but he could not possibily chose Romney unless he could somehow pull his support for Romney pretty quickly. Of course, you put up another interesting thought. What if Romney decides he would rather be a running mate for Huckabee? Neither option is very likely, just wondering aloud. |
So, anybody care to make a guess at where we are in the Democratic race heading into tomorrow?
As far as I can see, Obama is still in touch, but unless he wins CA by a couple of points at least, it's not a great night for him (or at least not as good as it looked like it was going to be when GA came in). Does that pretty much sum it up? |
Delegate Scorecard
Democratic (Needed to win: 2,025) Delegates Clinton 443 Obama 376 Republican (Needed to win: 1,191) Delegates McCain 337 Romney 133 Huckabee 85 Paul 4 |
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I think the Mormon issue is very big for a lot of Huckabee's voters. I know several southern conservative Christians that thought Mormonism is a cult and I can't imagine any of them voting for Romney. |
Mike Huckabee has won Georgia. He's also leading in Missouri and Tennessee.
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I think that's right. I think Obama would have been happy with this result a week ago, and he's definitely still in it, but the Obama camp probably had their hopes up for a little more given the feeling of momentum over the past couple of days. NJ is into single digits now. Missouri is as well, but it's probably too little too late there. Obama will have won more overall states at the end of the night, but not most of the the big ones. Doesn't sound like California is going to happen from a percentage standpoint, although the delegate difference probably won't be too wide. I think Hillary will end up eke-ing out the nomination, as I have from the beginning. |
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Actually, I think that McCain and Huckabee actually like each other personally. They seem to have a cordial relationship, and I haven't heard any negative comments between them. On the other hand, both of these guys genuinely dislike Romney. |
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I've battled with that for several days, had finally found a way to convince myself that it was an issue that could be handled ... and was then unexpectedly out of state for a funeral today and ended up not voting after all. {shrug} |
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Here's hoping it rains pundits. |
Barack Obama wins Minnesota. West coast polls including California close in 5 minutes.
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More than "both of these guys", you know? |
Has Ron Paul given any indication as to whether or not he will continue on after tonight?
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I am really surprised at how Obama is kicking Clinton in the midwest/west states. I think if evrything goes it appears now and Obama can hang close in Cali it will really come down to Ohio and Texas which from tonight might favor Obama. Certainly Clinton will have figure out how to incorpoarte Obama into here team if she does take the Nomination.
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Barack Obama wins Idaho. Mitt Romney wins North Dakota.
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John McCain wins Arizona.
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I can't help but chuckle at the graphic at foxnews.com which shows Romney as the projected winner in Utah with 0% of precincts reporting and 0 votes counted.
I understand it of course, I just got a giggle out of seeing it that way. |
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Until such time as he decides to run as a Libertarian, he's got no reason not to continue in the Republican race. He's not hurting for funding, and the more delegates he can amass, the more clout he'll have if Huckabee or Romney can stay close to McCain. |
Obama has made up over 20,000 votes in Missouri over the last half hour or so. Still 20,000+ behind. Sounds like St. Louis County is coming in. Depends on how much is left.
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With the crap that has gone back and forth between them behind the scenes, I can't see how he takes a spot on her team. |
Clinton off to a hot start in Cali.
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Hillary Clinton wins Arizona. Obama within 5% in Missouri.
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He's gaining really fast in Missouri. Wow.
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