Landfall is expected to be early tomorrow morning. The current forward speed is estimated at 13 mph.

Thanks.

FWIW, the map above *is* self-updating.

What is bugging about the news coverage (esp. CNN) is that they keep talking about New Orleans and its 485,000 people are ordered to evacuate. The New Orleans Metro Area has a population of over 1,300,000 people. Don't they count?

.
Saw it as well and with the number of fools watching Fox news these days.... :(

Even worse, more and more people seem to be gathering at the bars to party. It's aggrevating to see. Direct quote. Shep Smith to people just walking their dogs: Why are you guys still here? Person: None of your fucking business.

Another guy what are you going to do tonight? I'm going out for dinner and I'm going to watch a movie.

5pm Eastern Advisory:

902 MB
165 MPH Winds
NW at 13 MPH
150 Miles South of the Mississippi

Still on track for New Orleans.

Wind speeds dropped, but the same pressure?

Scary thought: New Orleans evacuation plan is a 72 hour plan.

The mayor went to be Friday night thinking it was a "Florida storm".
Woke up Saturday to a whole new issue....

Mandatory order was issued this morning.

I thought the update with the 175 winds was 906 mb?

5pm EST, 165 MPH and 902 MB.

Needless to say there will be alot of uneccessary deaths due to stupidity.

No, what Scottvib posted is what they just said on CNN. 902mb and 165 mph.

So they dropped 10 MPH? Does this mean it will continue to weaken?

The pressure is still the same though, and the waters are mighty warm.

Dola: Arent there alot of Offshore Oil Rigs and Refineries in and around the projected path of destruction?

Oh, I meant the 2pm update that it replaced- ie, the winds dropped but pressure dropped as well.

This isn't unusual, it typically takes a little while for the wind speed to respond to a stronger circulation center. (Additionally the wind speed is a function of the pressure gradient, so if the gradient is not as tight, even if the pressure is lower the winds won't pick up)

Looking at the radar there was a brief warming of the cloud tops (typically would signify a slight weakening of the system) earlier this afternoon, but that trend seems to have reversed itself.

It would actually be very unusual for a hurricane to maintain such strength for a long time, there will be some fluxuations in the wind speed prior to landfall and it is very possible (the earlier forecasts called for it) to have some minor weakening prior to landfall. But it still is expected for the landfall to occur with Katrina still a Category 5 or best case, a very strong Cat. 4 storm. Either way the impact would/will be devastating.

That's the good thing about civil liberties. The govt can adequately warn, prepare and supply aid but they cannot force, unless a law is broken. Personal responsibilities - until the lawyers get involved.

Now who is going to force the weather channel numbnuts, esp. that bitch standing in Gulf Shores, to leave or are they going to keep showing these "reporters" telling us how windy it is?

Please remember that the only thing between New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico is low-lying, eroding swampland. Expecting that land to break up Katrina is like asking a toddler to tackle Jamal Lewis.

For Buccaneer: I'm adjusting to the Northeast just fine so far, but I haven't been here long yet. I was here in February for my wife's job interview, and I got to experience sustained sub-freezing temperatures. It wasn't so bad. Now, I don't really know how the hell to shovel snow, but I'll learn it pretty quickly!

Don't be surprised to see a spike to $4/gallon.

BTW the forecast track shifted so that the eye would be forecasted to go right over New Orleans and would have landfall occur a bit earlier (4-5 am).

In New Orleans the media was exempted from the evacuation order so that they could continue to disseminate information to the public.

With respect to the Weather Channel, they are pulling their reporters back a bit. Jim Cantore's group have been moved to Gulf Shore Civic Center in Mississippi, where they will end up putting all their equipment. The staff will all be on the second floor inclosed in concrete.

FOX NEWS: It's too late to leave N.O. Bridges closed.

BTW they are closing the bridges to New Orleans now. More or less if you haven't gotten out yet, it's too late.

Good luck to everyone left/who is staying in New Orleans.

Some, how deep in my heart, I believe that what generally happens in this kind of mass hysteria will prove to be true: it will end up being much less than expected. I know that is very wishfull thinking, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next few hours the whole storm starts falling apart, or that it stops and suddenly turns even further west, or something else happens that weakens the damage significantly.

Should I combine this thread with the "Katrina hits Category 5" thread?

Why close the bridges now?

I hope you are right, but right now every indication is that this is not the case.

Don't know but that's what was reported.

Edit - My guess, and purely my guess, is that they closed them with the first rain band coming in (which just hit New Orleans).

Apparently te winds are getting too gusty. Are there estimates of how many ae trapped in N.O., AND is The Superdome in a higher elevation as compared to the French Quarters?

Didn't that happen last year (or earlier this year) with one of the hurricanes?

I know, I'm just hoping/praying past experience will bear out.

Charlie.

Two comments from me:

1. We New Orleanians generally consider our city to have only half a million people. We just don't count the additional areas that are included in the metro area (Metairie, Kenner, Harahan, St. Bernard Parish). I'm new to Greensburg, but there don't really seem to be any major cultural differences between people in Greensburg and people in Jeannette (5 miles away) and the people in Irwin (8 miles away). New Orleans is completely different. Adjacent cities and areas have completely different personalities and practically different cultures. To me, New Orleans has x number of people, Kenner has y number of people, Harahan has z number of people, etc. I don't really know if the media understand that, but when they say that New Orleans only has 485,000 people, it makes sense to me.

2. Also, regarding the "contra-flow" system, the cameras I've seen have shown the interstate between Causeway Blvd. and Clearview Blvd. This is a 4- or 5-mile stretch of interstate with no entrances or exits in between. You really can't get people onto the other lanes right there. You have to do it at the points that actually lead out of the city, and that's what contra-flow is designed to do. The point is pretty much moot now, though, because they have to get the police officers who are monitoring the interstate out of the area. At any minute now, New Orleans will be completely shut down.

What part of Louisiana is Dutch in?

Works for me.

I don't know for sure, but I think he's in northwestern Louisiana. I hope I'm right, because that's expected to be a safe spot.

If I remember correctly I think he is in Shreveport...

Also- we are starting to get some bad weather here in Lafayette already.

My GOD! That's alot of people in line to get in the Superdome.

Want to know how serious this is? I haven't heard one reference to "Katrina and the Waves".

Good luck to everybody involved - I'm pulling for you.

Good bless all you FOFC board members, your families and all the people in the path of this beast. Having been an Air Force meteorologist for 6 years and done my undergrad in the field I can say I haven't seen an eye that defined and or a wall cloud that huge.

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/vid...props=livenoad


a live news feed from WWLTV out of new orleans, a good source of local news.

BTW for those interested Tropical Depression 13 formed today in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 14 may not be far behind.

Wow this is crazy. The other night my area got a direct hit from Katrina although it was not as strong as what is coming toward N.O. and M.S. direction.

:(

Thanks for the link.

Curfew coming at 6pm in New Orleans, also is the last pickup for the Rescue Centers.

Is this the mayor speaking on the WWL link now?

Yep. Riveting stuff.

Yes.

Yep.

It really is. He's really being straightforward and honest.

A few questions:

1) What causes the hurricane predictions to make it curve back east, and not follow the path of Rizon's blue arrow here?



2) On the AL12 map on page 2, what is the XTRP path and why is it so different from the other ones?

3) Do they duplicate names for hurricanes/storms/depressions/puffs of wind? (It looks like they do).

4) I can't find a good site that has previous hurricane paths, I keep finding different paths for the same (old) hurricane (which makes me think they use old names for these things)

Can you give us any sort of commentary on what he's saying?

5) Wasn't this a movie a few months ago?

Dear lord,, you see the kids in the Gulfport shot?

The mayor is doing a good job right now, from what I can tell. It's a shame that I don't like the man. He cost New Orleans its hockey team 3 years ago, and I still haven't forgiven him. :D

There is anpther one forming off the coast of W. Africa too. Looks like its gonna be a long month. :(

He finished a few moments ago. I'll see if I can recap. Others , please feel free to help me out here. Here are the things that stood out to me, as best as I remember them...

• He's estimating 6 weeks to get power back on.
• He expects to see a lot of boats in the streets of New Orleans.
• He told people who are staying in their homes that, if they go to the attic to escape rising water, to make sure to take an axe or some other device to break through the ceiling in order to get on the roof.
• He had one slip-up, I think. He said something along the lines of, "after a certain point this evening, if you've decided to stay you must understand that the winds will be so bad that there will be no services whatsoever. No fire. No police. Uh, no, excuse, there will be police out patrolling...." Methinks he realized right then that it probably wasn't a good idea to tell everyone that there would be no police.
• The President got his cell phone number and he also has satellite phone contact with the White House now.

All in all, he was very blunt and straightforward about what New Orleans is probably facing.

Prevailing winds/jet stream?

He's being honest though and thank goodness not sugar coating things.

The general air flow in the middle latitudes is from West to East, so weather tends to go that way once you get away from the southern US coast. (The Jet Stream would start to steer the system)


This is the current motion and an extrapolation of where it would go if it continued to follow that motion.


Hurricane names in the Atlantic an Pacific Basins are rotated on a 6 year cycle. However very strong hurricanes (like Andrew and looking like Katrina) have their names retired and never used again.


You can get these from the National Hurricane Center Here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml Look in the second heading from the bottom of the page for yearly track maps.

Hope this helps

Sadly, there is likely a small percentage (less than 1 percent, hopefully) of the people staying behind because either consciously or subconsciously they think they will be able to score some free goodies during the aftermath ...

Yes, there is a six year loop of names, but sometimes names are retired.

According to the NHC, "The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate"

Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne were retired after 2004.

A few things:

1) The water temperature here I think is critical. If it is warm it will continue strengthen. I think it lost a little organization but the water is warm enough it will it will get back organized.
2) The winds have to stay below 200 MPH. At this time, it does not look like it will do that. The Superdome, which will have nearly 100,000 people in it, can take winds up to 200 MPH. Anything more than that could cause a huge number of casualties.
3) In my brief experience watching these storms, one they get to a certain point, they pretty much bare down and do not change direction. I think the land probably prevents it from changing but I am no expert. It is getting very close to that point.
4) Camille went straight up the Mississippi River and did not change directions. It also sent the water in the Mississippi the other direction (it moved north). This has so many of the same characteristics of Camille and I think it will be very similar. IF it goes up the river, it will maintain some its strengthen and be a hurricane all the way to Memphis.

There is still no word from sister’s fiancée. The unit in his town got called up but is with a different unit in a neighboring town. I am sure they will be in shelters but you still do not want to get in the way of this sucker.

There was a cold front crossing Texas, not that it made things cold. I would say this has an effect in pushing it back east.

The water temperatures are near or above 90 degrees F. There is little in the upper levels available to disturb the hurricane. In actuallity this is one of the best organized storms I can remember. It's just rare for a storm to maintain such a high wind speed. In actuality even though the storm's wind speeds are lower, the circulation itself is more potent as evidenced by the extremely low pressure.


This is highly likely IMO. The system is so large it's unlikely that it will have sustained winds above 200 MPH. However, it would not be surprising for there to be a few gusts over 200, particularly several stories above street level.


The upper level steering is likely to have the storm bear down. But there is nothing inherent to hurricanes or the land that prevents it from turning. There have been storms that make sudden 90 degree turns (think Charley last year). Hurricanes more or less are stuck going in whatever direction the prevailing upper winds blow.



Following the river would not in and of itself extend the lenght of time that the storm maintains hurricane strength. The friction of the land tends to tear the circulation apart. The bigger determinant is a) the strength the hurricane hits with (the stronger it is the longer to weaken) and b) the speed it is moving (the faster it is, the further inland it can maintain hurricane strength).

Current forecasts take it through Jackson, Mississippi, as a tropical storm before weakening to a depression in Tennessee and the Ohio Valley.

Why is Shepard Smith still reporting from the French Quarter? He sure sounds pretty pissed off that he's still there...

Are these wind patterns enough to push it (mostly) away from NO?

No they aren't (in fact the winds on that map are mostly caused by the hurricane). The upper level winds are more critical, not the surface winds. The upper level winds are coming from the south.

Maybe now would be a good time for me to go the gas station instead of waiting until tomorrow.

Ah, I finally found a good map. Everything does look like it's pushing east.

This animated map takes a few minutes to load:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

Darwin at work - idiots surfing the Alabama coast right now.

I don't think you can sugar coat a CAT 5 hitting the low-lands of Louisiana. This one is gonna be ugly. I hope everybody who can leave will.

The mayor also said they were going to flush the entire sewer system out to sea this evening to allow for additional water build-up.

Which prompted the newscaster to ask, "So, will we be able to flush our toilets only once then?"

I thought that was kind of funny. Of course, he responds, "No, you should be able to flush your toilets multiple times."

lol. Way to get the heart of the situation, lady. :) I know, I'm being critical of newscasters who are asked to report live for hours on end. I know that's not easy.

BTW for what it's worth the satellite does show the cloud tops warming (typically an indication of a weakening) recently. However, fluxuations in hurricanes are not uncommon, and the warming hasn't continued long enough to call it a trend. (And even then the "weakening" isn't likely to drop the storm below Category 4.)

Here is a satellite image focused on the hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA...-ir4-loop.html

Scott:

The clouds seem to be following my drawn in red pattern (using my awesome artistic skills). Is this caused by the hurricane or is it normal for them to travel across the Trailer States up to/swirling around in Canada?

Been watching this for the last hour and a half and it is excellent coverage.

I was fascinated by the meteorologist talking about the "stadium effect" of the eye.

These are two seperate and unrelated systems. But the atmosphere is very fluid so air flow and airmasses are constantly circulated throughout the globe. In actuallity the air is flowing towards both swirls. (Think of them as whirlpools. Air flows from high pressure to low pressure, both swirls are low pressure systems)

This is completely unrelated to the hurricane, but I've seen the female news anchor, Karen Swensen, in person. She has a really big head.

there's a guy (I have no idea of his bonafides) named Dr. Jeff Masters who's blogging at Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html). Here's a portion of his last post.

Not good at all.

I like it when they talk on the phone to parish sheriffs and levee supervisors because they provide a true local flavor instead of anchors that talk and act like they could be in Boston or Seattle.

Dr. Jeff Masters is the co-founder and director of Meteorology at Weather Underground.

And now is a perfectly horrible time to bring this up.

Anyone seen the Air Force? storm chaser woman. I think she was on FOX or TWC. Blonde woman. She's hot.

Fox News reported that oil tankers have been abandoned off gulf of mexico, looks like there's also potential for environmental problems.
Oh and OIL FUTURES Prices are now up to $ 4.00 as per MSNBC

Latest advisory is out and they've knocked the speed down just a touch more, to 160 MPH, but still 160 is nothing to sneeze at. It was never expected to stay at 175, and I do expect it'll fluctuate more. At worst, however, we're still talking about 145-150 at the bottom end at landfall. 155-165 is more likely at this point.

Hurricane KATRINA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Chrts Archive

US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
904 MB...26.69 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.2 N... 89.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

LOL. Nicole Mitchell is an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter, and a Weather Channel meteorologist. She's usually on in the morning with Marshall Seese (sp?) and Heather Tesch.

On a serious note, I hope everyone in the area has heeded the warnings and gotten the hell out of the way. Let Jim Cantore and his pals show you what it's like from a couple hundred miles away.

Loren just pointed out he hasn't been on for a while that we have seen, and maybe he is taking a nap so he is well rested for later tonight.

Dola...should also note pressure has crept up to 904 from 902. However, this storm will not just fall apart before landfall. Just too little water left. Admittedly, storms like Opal and a couple of others have come undone just hours before landfall, but there's nothing here to indicate Katrina will do so in such a short amount of time.

I didn't catch exactly where he was, but my wife mentioned earlier that he was taking shelter at a retirement home or some such place. (no that's not a punch line, I'm serious).

I believe Jim is in or near Biloxi. Whatever place he was was going to hole up in was not a public shelter, but could be made available if necessary at the last minute.

That reminds me of something I thought of earlier, and I wish they would cover at some point during one of these hurricanes.

What do places like retirement homes do, and hospitals, that are vulnerable to large amounts of damage and have I high number of people who are difficult to move. I hope they have some kind of way to help these people, or protect them in a decent area......

Jim is in Biloxi.

Oil futures are trading at over $70 a barrel. Get ready for a roller coaster week on Wall Street.

Yep. Went out and tanked up both cars today. I'm assuming the 2.65 it's going for now up here in MI will be closer to 3.00 later this week as the extent of the damage in Louisiana becomes better known.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Wave height of 30 ft 64 miles south of Dolphin Island, AL

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml

a page with some more info

Yeah, I'm in nw la. Shreveport area, near Texas and Arkansas border. Probably will miss the entire thing as it gets pulled east.

We could use the rain, however.