Agreed.

They are still voting in ohio, almost 2 hours after the polls officially closed. Bush needs to be showing strong support in "White-hio" to counteract the fact that "Black-hio" is strongly for Kerry.

It is shaping up to be 4 years of gridlock and indecisions and a whole shitload of punditry.

Far out!

Is that legal?

Courts are keeping them open because problems with polls kept them from finishing on time. They must allow everyone to vote that showed up on time to vote.

when they've been waiting in line for 5 hours, yes.

I smell the scent of 10000 democrat lawyers closing into the Ohio area.

Don't tell me, computer glitches, right? Anything wrong with a ballot card and a marker? Bet they would have been home right now.

Shoot, the Republican and Democratic lawyers are already there. They have been filing crap all day.

I agree with you completely. We did the scan-tron type sheets in Alabama. People would still goof them, but not as much as the computer screen (not to mention it is easy to have a recount if the machines goof).

Some of the problem seems to stem from the fact that they wanted to allow paper ballots as well, but they disallowed that.

.

I don't think it has to do with computer clitches. Computers or no, if you're in line when the polls close you get to vote no matter how long it takes to get through everyone.

Well, now I can say that my picture has been on the fridge in the home of a US Senator.

Not looking good for Kerry. Even though it's fairly early in msot states he's trailing in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Is there a reasonable scenario for Kerry winning if he loses both Ohio and Florida?

I think that its way too early to be making judgements about Mich, Wis, or Minnesota, but loses in any of the gore states are bad news.

Now they're talking about not counting the absentee ballots in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade until Thursday.

How do you have what happened in 2000, and then not be prepared to count these ballots as quickly as possible? This is like 200K+ votes!

Yes, he simply has to win almost every other state. Remember California is Kerry's, so that makes things as they stand right now almost dead even, all these middle ground stats are going to make things very interesting.....

Its really really early to say anything about michigan..


Detroit reports late, and trust me, there is not much love for Bush in the metro detroit area....

I work in detroit myself, since our shift started a 11 today, most of voted in the morning and we had our own lil mini-election at work.

Kerry-57
Bush-4
Nader-3

go figure eh?

P.S. the demographics break down something like 70 percent of the employess are african american, 20 percetn white, and i'd say ten percent hispanic.

That blows my mind too. I also was hearing some provisional ballots in Ohio wouldn't be counted until Friday.

CNN just gave Dubya Missouri and Arkansas (no surprise in AK). They're currently at 193-112.

"My baby dady...Barack Obama!"

Why does that blow your mind? That has always been the case (counting those ballots in the days and weeks following election day). In that case of one state in 2000, it made those critical but you still have to allow time to count them right. No need to rush or to do a half-ass job like what some FL counties did.

In 2000, even with all of the issues, they counted the absentee ballots the night of the election in South Florida. It was the chad issue, among others, that caused the problems.

It's mind blowing because if there was ever a time for Florida to go above and beyond the call of duty, now was that time. I assume they have some explanation, but it comes off as if they've learned nothing.

From the yahoo article about youth voting


I'm sure there are some here that would be highly offended at this statement. Something about this statement that doesn't sound right.

Bush up 52-47 Ohio.

It's further mind-blowing considering who the Governor is. Jeb ain't getting invited to Thanksgiving dinner with the family if he lets his brother lose his state.

I don't think you are recalling correctly. There was the issue of the overseas military ballots as well.

keep in mind that there are STILL people waiting in line to vote too :(

The last time I checked, a governor still only has one vote.

The Supervisor of Elections in Palm Beach, the lady who invented the butterfly ballot and was a Democrat until after the 2000 fiasco, is handling her final election. She was forced to turn Independent after the Democratic Party did everything in their power to defeat her this year. She is so hated in Palm Beach County that the Dems put up a guy whose name is identical to the accounting firm linked to Enron, and he beat her handily. That's right - she lost to Arthur Andersen!

While that is true, were talking about two different types of ballots. Florida is simply not counting standard absentee ballots tonight.

I think it has to be considered ridiculous given the events of 2000.

Those always come in late. Someone on either Fox or CNN just discussed this issue, and said all of the absentee ballots were counted that night - as opposed to the 4,000 or so military overseas ballots that came in within the next few days.

You think he wasn't doing everything he possibly could down there to keep Dubya in office?

Shit, if I was governor of a state, and my brother was in the presidential election, I'd be plastering Vote For My Bro signs onto everything I could.

The amazing thing about tonight is that, despite how close everything looks, we haven't had one thing actually change from last year yet - just the timing of calling certain states is the only difference. This could still end up being a 300 EV night for one of the candidates (more than likely Kerry is either one was to reaach that number).

Given the 2000 election fiasco, Jeb has taken a secondary role in the Florida campaign. They brought in a co-chair, and he didn't do too much campaigning. He was in just one commercial that I saw and really wasn't on TV too much, either. In fact, I'd say he's been close to invisible. I think the thought is that he can help Dubya by concentrating on getting people back on their feet from the hurricane, rather than taking a partisan role in trying to get his brother elected.

Hearing from my in-laws, everyone had signs plastered everywhere. Remember in this era of central power, national political machines trump state political machines.

Bucc, computers are not the enemy. Many states use electronic polling and have flawless procedures (New Jersey is one example).

BTW, these numbers don't tell enough of the story to me. For example, just a second ago I looked at the list of counties and their percent having reported. While a number of rural counties with 15-20k people have been 100% reported (and mostly in favor of Bush predictably), Cleveland's county, where Kerry is leading Bush 60-40 percent, only had 17% reported.

NJ is not a battleground state so we don't hear of any problems because it wouldn't matter. Just like usual practice (pre-2000) of not even counting overseas and absentee ballots in various counties because they would not affect the outcome at all.

cnn says kerry has PA

PA finally given to Kerry

This wasn't my main point though. You just seem to think that anything beyond marker and a paper ballot is silly.

Fox still has not called PA - but looks good for Kerry. If Bush takes Florida and Ohio, this thing is over. Kerry would have to pull of Colorado and New Mexico as well get some help elsewhere. Bush could get as many as 316 votes.

And right as I post that Fox calls PA for Kerry.

One place in Lucas county(toledo area) said that they were out of ballots, only to later find that they were just misplaced. They found them an hour or 2 before the 7:30 deadline.

I should add that these are not the punch ballots, we use scantron like sheets that you just fill out with a pencil.

Florida looks to be Bush. Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach (Dem counties) are at least 70-90% counted and Bush is up by more than 300,000 in the state.

I don't think Florida or Ohio is going to be called tonight.

I'd be surprised at this point if Florida doesn't go to Bush. That leaves Ohio as the key battleground right now and it looks like it could go either way (Bush is leading right now, but some of the heavy democratic urban areas with lots of votes haven't reported). With all the challenges and everything we've seen in Ohio, this could be even uglier than 2000.

agreed.

Hell, if everything falls the same as 2000 (with Ohio and Florida going Bush) EXCEPT New Hampshire then Kerry would still win...

Here's the thing with Florida, though. Right now, Bush leads by 300K. The remaining precincts, I believe, are South Florida, so you have to expect that 300K lead to dwindle a bit. And I've heard on TV (and these numbers are from the TV so I don't know how accurate they are) that there are upwards of 250K absentee ballots that may not be counted until Thursday. This likely won't be down to a 537 vote difference, but I think it may sufficiently call the result in question and keep it from being called tonight.

Oh god, ACLU filed a lawsuit in Broward and Palm Beach counties based on absentee ballots.

Also, Bush is up ~300,000 with roughly 1 million votes left by my off-hand calculations.

I think re-districting gave the red states from 2000 a couple more and enough to negate NH switching sides changing the outcome alone.

CNN gives Bush the all important Idaho vote. :)

Dont forget Montana now

Arent Absentee ballots generally more republican votes than dems?

nevada is leaning Kerry now... basically it's all going to come down to Ohio (I think Fla is safely Bush's)

Well, I was wrong about a couple of states.

Seems safe to call Florida. Bush is doing better than he did in 2000 in nearly every county.

Ohio is neck and neck, but Bush does hold an edge. Kerry's doing a tad better than Gore did, but not enough to make up the 2% Bush won in 2000. Of course, there's much less data to work with there than in Florida.

Not looking like the rout I expected at all. It's all about Ohio.

I'll start looking into Wisconsin later. I'm going to take another pass through Ohio.

It wasn't really re-districting but a reallocation of the # of house seats for each state. Great chart by Tim Russert, if the states go exactly the same way as 2000, Bush would get 278 to 260 for Kerry.

It is all about Ohio.

Todd

Is that how you predicted a Kerry rout?

I heard through the grapevine (guy I know who lives up there) Wisconsin has Kerry up.

and yahoo frontpage craps out...

I've got a baaad feeling about this...

Did you pick the wrong week to stop sniffing glue like me?

yahoo/ap just flipped wisconsin to leaning kerry...

just not looking good for Kerry. He's doomed without ohio.

CBS just gave Florida away to Bush

Bucc, I had the big 4 - Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa - all for Kerry (and New Mexico, which isn't looking like a good bet, either).

Ohio is difficult. The early returns in Cincinnati show the kind of dramatic shift Kerry needed. But he isn't getting that everywhere - just getting enough in Canton, Columbus, Toledo, somewhat in Cleveland. The rest of the state is staying near where it was in 2000.

The networks are being awfully wimpy not calling Florida. But they're hinting as much.

I'm hoping to work on Wisconsin in the next hour.

Now why would they do that? Is Rather/CBS getting that desperate?

Apparently Cleveland's precincts have all reported, so Kerry's got all the bounce he's going to get from that part. I have to admit, I'm surprised. I voted for Bush,but really thought he'd lose, maybe not by the margin some thought, though. you just never know.

giving Fla, Ohio, Arizona, Montana and Colorado to Bush give W 266 (by my math). Nevada's 5 would push him over the top.

assuming Kerry pulls out Wisonsin, he's still got to win either Ohio, Nevada, or Colorado, and none of them seem very likely right now.

Kerry is +3 in nevada right now

yahoo gives fla to bush

FoxNews was reporting that Cleveland hadn't reported at all yet and that they expect Kerry to make up the 130k votes quite easily.

So I still have Bush on the outside looking for a miracle.

C'mon Cincy, boost that kerry count.

Its pathetic that I have to root for such a putz, but a democratic putz is safer than a republican religious state.

Cleveland is Cuyahoga county - according to CNN - 52% of the precinct has reported with Kerry ahead by almost 100k - I guess you can double that, so Kerry stands to make up another 100k in votes.

ok, i think Badnarik is gonna lose....maybe the winner between him and Nader could be VP. Since they are kind of like the Division 1-AA of national politics and have nochance of beating the big boys.....

I find it somewhat amusing that Nader is getting so very few votes. The Party Machines really did a number on him, huh?

I agree. I'm looking forward to 2008.

Looking real good for Bush.

According to my non-scientific calcs - Bush wins Florida, Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico and therefore wins the election. Then again...I'm a mere voter in Delaware, what do I know?

He was kept off the ballot in several states because the Democrats fought in the courts to keep him off, like in Texas. My wife had to write him in, and that was a pain because no one who was running the polling location we go to knew how to do a write in vote, guess she was the first of the day....
:rolleyes:

Also, like some guy on CNN said earlier, 3rd party guys (even though he is Independent this time) usually drop the next time around after having any kind of push in an election, like Perot....

If Kerry wins, I admit I am looking forward to being scratched from my next rotation in the desert in favor of French, German, and Russian troop support. :D

Regardless of whether Bush wins, I'm looking forward to 2008. :)

On a personal note, winning Florida by such a (relatively) comfortable margin is good for my firm.

Look at Ohio more closely, Cuyhoga(sp) county has only reported half and kerry is slaughtering bush there....

also, paying attention to michigan, wayne county(detroit really) has half precints and kerry is really hammering bush there, 75% to 23%. and thats with still more to come.

I think we'll end up again with the W losing the popular vote.

but as for that blasted electoral...grrrr

according to ap county by county precint counts in ohio...in ten minutes since i last checked.. kerry just gained on bush by 50,000 votes. down by 20 now.

I still think Ohio will go blue.

Dems said to be "increasingly pessimistic" about Ohio, according to a reporter in Boston on Fox.

I have to agree. (EDIT: With Jeff Night)

Begala and Carville basically conceded the election 25 minutes ago on CNN.

The scary part to me was what else the reporter said. Something along the lines of the dems were getting increasingly pessimistic about Ohio and that they feel the election will be settled on the court house steps tomorrow morning.

Good lord. . . If you lose, you freakin lose.

Tonight doesn't surprise me in the least. I felt all along that Bush had more momentum than people thought and that Kerry's horrific campaign strategy was keeping things too close.

He may eek out Ohio and still get this election, but it's looking pretty grim for him.

With Bush up in Ohio and New Mexico. . . Kerry is looking like he's in trouble.

Let me preface this by saying that I don't believe by any stretch that it is over already, but I would have loved to see the look on Carville's face when he talked about this.

My thoughts exactly, no matter which side you are on.

Sometime, many many years in the future, we will break this god damned 2 party system.

And then I will be happy.

There are about 5,000 laywers in Florida scrambling to get on flights to Cleveland that disagree with that philosophy. :)

Couldn't agree more with this. Don't get me wrong, those of you who support Kerry. I know Bush would do the same thing and I would be just as pissed when he did it.

Bush holds on in Ohio, this thing is over.

Wisconsin is still early, but what I see is a tiny shift for Kerry over 2000 - on the order of 0.1% - 0.2%. So I'm expecting that to stay in the Kerry column.

Bush gets Montana.

word to your mother!