I don't have that luxury. But I barely reacted to the first two and seven hours after this latest one, I doubt I will this time. Probably means my immunity system just laughed and said, "you want us to build what, exactly? Do you think this is IKEA going on in here?" My wife was hit hard by #2, but #1 and #3 were fine.

Liability is easy. Just work with the NFLPA on a waiver and give players the same options they had last year.

Not sure what to say about perceptions without a long-winded political/media discussion, which I think we're all tired of these days.

This is an awesome line

SI

Re: Bronchial spread high: Yes, but all this means is what's on the tin. As the article said Delta also replicates slower in the lungs (and is more dangerous in direct comparison than earlier variants).

It is also simply a good indicator for there being a lot more virus generated overall, which inherently isn't a good thing ... (And some analysis have concluded it is significantly more contagious even without the ability to evade immunity via antibodies).


Because early comparative data simply doesn't bear it out (less and less so every day) and it happens very rarely best i can tell from people i listen to (largely in german for a while now in an attenpt to cut down my consumption of this shit ... One german science journalist writing in english and getting great sources collected is Kai Kupferschmidt, who writes for Science Magazine). Pathogenicity changes due to the host being better prepared, innate changes are largely slight at best (that goes in both directions in principle of course, but since better replication goes hand in hand with more virus to deal with this is less clear cut best i know).

Immunity protection, even if it were to hold steady, just aren't cutting it in many regions. Germany already has as many in ICU than at Peak last Winter (and crumbling HC workers ...) and 450 dead a day. With some regions above past peaks (guess where their vacc uptake ranks ...). Now you likely double or more infections over the Winter ...

And it'd need to be truly spectacularly less severe seeing graphs like this:



I mean, fuck. And that might not even reflect it acurately given Testing capacity is likely strained.

I got my Moderna booster on Wednesday, and had a slightly sore arm later in the day. Yesterday, I felt extremely tired and lethargic, but everything seems back to normal today.

I'm not a tin foil hat guy, but if you were trying to engineer this virus to keep us under its boot, you couldn't do a better job than what has happened.

First, OG COVID. We are able to reach an equilibrium with it with masks and distancing. Then we get vaccines, and we are going to crush it.

BUT Delta comes along. And with Delta, we are able to reach an equilibrium with vaccines. Then we are going to start boosters, and that is going to crush Delta.

BUT Omicron comes along, and it looks like boosters will let us have the equilibrium, but we won't be in a crush-it place anytime soon.

I'm getting my Pfizer booster on Monday evening. Doc said I was OK to get it post-surgery, so hopefully it goes as easy as shots 1 and 2 went.

Whoever's playing this Plague Inc. game definitely has particular strategy.

Dealing with virus evolution is a little like that classic computer game Lemmings. Each variant is a new level to conquer and the immunologists give us a new thingamabob to turn the lemmings into every now and then.

A level ends when you manage to get through and save enough lemmings.

Eventually, a level gets hard enough that you want to quit playing the game, but you persevere to the end.

What really sucks is that undoubtedly, someone will come up with a new package of levels.

So we keep playing the game, playing the game, until we no longer care about the consequences of not playing. And that's part politics, part what happens to people when you quit the game.

As an aside, I'm marveling at where I had my shot yesterday. So, here we have the state using the big waiting room in a major hematology/oncology center (lots of comfy recliners for infusion therapy) to handle a steady stream of people like me, who are likely vulnerable (especially to Omicron) because it's been more than six months since the last shots.

And there we are, masked (cloth masks, which apparently don't help much) and mixing with some very vulnerable elderly people who are undoubtedly among those most immunocompromised. And it's the state doing it. It's not like we haven't had time to figure out how to do this thing better. Moments like that, and it's hard to reject the foil people as easily. Still, it's something I don't understand and I basically try to do what I'm told and not think if I don't want to ruin my day. Ultimately, I am a lemming, addicted to comfort.

Insane. I was at my infusion center yesterday and they don't even allow you to bring anyone in with you.

I just think it's hard to get a virus under control when a large percent of the country wants the virus to thrive.

Even harder when the entire world has to comply. We were actually doing pretty well until Omicron snuck in with a vengeance.

I think they have the COVID protocol in place for the same reason they have the concussion protocol.

Tangent, and I didn't know this until I started my current job, but immunologists actually don't deal with viruses. That's virologists, and, differently, epidemiologists.

Immunologists deal with diseases where the body's own immune system is malfunctioning, resulting in conditions like exczema, atopic dermatitis, crohn's disease, psoriasis, etc....

I wouldn't say we were doing well when 2000 people a day were dying and we consistently led the world in new cases.

Scientists were also clear this was a global problem. Unless you completely wall off your country and do not let anyone in or out, you're going to have to help poorer countries get their populations vaccinated. We've been lax in donating vaccines and more or less gave up on the patent stuff because we didn't want to upset the pharmaceutical companies.

This was our decision.

That darn China flu, Indian Delta, and South African Omi. Still not near as bad as the worldwide flu epidemic of 1918 in terms of mortality.

The 1918 Flu Pandemic Was Brutal, Killing More Than 50 Million People Worldwide : NPR

Could it be lupus?

SI

Worth noting that despite the uptick in cases, deaths for vaccinated individuals still remain minuscule. The uptick in cases is mostly with those who are unvaccinated.

Tough to get accurate data due to political reasons, but NYC has a really nice platform that shows what's going on. Look at cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among unvaxxed and vaxxed.

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

It's never lupus.

...beat me to it

I don't often agree with RainMaker, but I second this and I'd third it if I could. This is a global problem.

Great news. Next step is the Supreme Court.

My company had the deadline by early Nov. I've read some big companies don't have the mandate for remote workers and/or only for those returning to the office. Other than for some some legit exemptions, allowing whole sale remote workers to avoid vaccination is a cop out to me.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/17/polit...ors/index.html

Funnily enough, I was working on a lupus R&D project last year and this year before transitioning it to someone else.

Why? The point of the mandate is to protect co-workers from the spread of the virus. Is there a variant that spreads through the internet? I think we should be encouraging more remote work, and the virus is only one reason why, but if people aren't constantly in close proximity, they aren't infecting each other.

The federal employee mandate applies to remote workers.

I think the main goal to extend the mandates as far as possible to increase the overall % of vaccinated people in the U.S. Actual workplace transmission is a secondary concern.

I guess for whatever reason, they feel that they can extend the mandate to federal remote workers but not private remote workers.

Ok, but if you just want to increase the vaccination rate then just mandate it for everyone. When you set it to only employers 100 and up you're saying workspace transmission is your goal.

Not a lawyer, but I've been pretty immersed in this lately...

Bottom line is this is coming from OSHA, who governs workplace safety. The court challenge is all centered on whether OSHA is overstepping its own authority. Most seem to agree that it is not, but that hinges on the order being about workplaces, rather than general society.

If the federal government wanted to try to enact a vaccination order for all residents, it would likely have to come from Congress, possibly the CDC, and still would be vulnerable to challenge. I think there's little doubt that the workplace safety agency has no real domain over what a work-from-home employee of any size employer is doing in this regard.

Apparently Biden is going to make a speech about Omicron on Tuesday. A good and important step, I'm curious if he'll say anything new about it.

It's starting to feel like last March again. Broadway shows closing, SNL going without an audience and using only a skeleton crew.

Grand.

Good point. I am unsure why the mandate is for employers 100+ but suspect some rationale there is they are able to bear the brunt of exits better, there's more Fed government leverage against bigger companies vs sole proprietorships etc. Regardless, I have no problem with doing the low hanging fruit first.


That certainly is one reason but overall it is to get as many people vaccinated as possible to reduce overall infection/mortality rate. Remote workers still interact with others not in the office place.

If there are remote workers that do not go out and interact with others (e.g. grocery shopping) or they live alone and have groceries delivered, then maybe. But these are few and far between.

Hopefully but my guess is no. Get your shots, get your booster, wear your mask, avoid unnecessary travel etc.

No one is really going to be swayed by him unless he says Omi is much deadlier than Delta (e.g. not just infection rate but serious hospitalization/mortality) which, based on current snippets, it is not.

I've watched enough Youtube TV and football games enough now to say Government "change management" approach is pretty sad. A proper campaign including reinforcement messages on TV and big events should have been launched. All we get now are the same tired refrain (which is okay) from the same tired people (that is a problem) with the same tired delivery approach (speeches and periodic briefings). It's time to evolve the communications strategy.

I'm in Belgium given its close proximity to the Netherlands you'd think they might be responding with similar policies. It's quite a different feel here. Much more along the lines of pre-Omicron. Stuff is open, dining is open, shops are open, people are masked up, but it's not the intense feeling that you're getting out of the Dutch right now. So weird to me given how close they are.

Welp. Our Hamilton show for Thursday just got cancelled. Saw it coming but still stings. My kids are gonna be pissed when I tell them they have to go to school.

Is there any data on how much a booster reduces hospitalization/death rates versus just standard vaccination available?

Our weekly numbers came out this morning for Houston (Texas Med Center dashboard) and they're shooting back up, faster than any previous wave:
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Updates - Texas Medical Center

I like to think of case positivity, cases, and hospitalizations as "past, present, and future". I also use the weekly average charts and not daily because daily has too much noise.

Leading indicator of case positivity had been bumping around mid-2s and went straight to 6.2 last week. In previous waves, that jump had taken a month or more and is typically more gradual.

Cases per day (weekly average) went from 200 -> 700 -> 2000(!) in 2 weeks. In the last 2 waves, it's taken about 4 weeks to get there. Our previous peaks have been around 4000-5000 cases per day, though, honestly, there's a ceiling to how many people will get tested and cases measured. I'm sure the actual numbers are a multiple of that, but it's kindof an immaterial number.

Hospitalizations were in the 60s and shot past 100 in one week. That's similar to Delta, which peaked at almost 400 per day. We'll see how high this gets - but we won't see peak hospitalizations for about 6 weeks.

Hopefully getting to infections much quicker but hospitalizations at the same speed continues this trend of Omicron being a bit of a "weaker" strain, relatively. But it's going to have such a huge reach that the overall numbers for deaths and hospitalizations will be similar or worse than Delta.

SI

We're supposed to see the touring show Christmas night. Hopefully they don't suspend that on a national level, they have done a few shows in town already this week. Certainly there won't be any local restrictions shutting it down, but, all it probably takes is a few positive tests among the cast.

Pre-Omicron the reffectiveness was about 90% still best i can tell.
Boosters essentially decreased the risk right down to zero , adding 90% decreased risk compared to 2 doses, all Biontech/Pfizer, at least short term. Long Term, for obvious reasons, and Omicron are less known of course. But early results from the laboratory indicate a similar increase of protection for antibodies/T Cells versus a baseline of 2 doses for BnT/Moderna or mixed.

Mathematically i"d actually think that evrybody having 2 doses would be more helpful than 25% having none and 75% having 3. (Plus we'd have extra to donate). Alas ...

DEFINE_ME

(Couldn't quickly find a good article, but the study is presented very straightforward and had it bookmarked)

Study from Israel, so top notch data collection. Again, this is exclusively Biontech but Moderna, while being a bit better and durable against Infection, seems to be similar. Plus, their Booster is actually half-dosage, at least in Germany, so that should eliminate some of the small innate advantage.

Maybe try Disney+ Hamilton and promise the kids a next time?

Preview of his speech

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/polit...sts/index.html

Pretty good vaccination rate. I'd think infections are inevitable and to be expected.

But I'd still avoid cruises for a while.

https://abc7.com/royal-caribbean-sym...irus/11362914/
Precaution measures and reaction seem pretty good.

You can stop with the first line. No measures are going to keep anything Covid-free. This is the false premise upon which we've been told that vaccinations are a failure. I suppose it's partly the messaging/setting expectations from the administration and partly the amplification of the anti-vaxx/mandate side that are both to blame, but eradication was never the goal (unless it just happened to die off on its own).

++ @ Ksyrup.

"You can get it even if you're vaccinated, so what's the point" is my least favorite part of 2021.

flere I missed you during your 5 year hiatus. It's nice to see you back.

caseloads are unreal here in the mid-atlantic right now... we're all hoping that this will be a low-impact wave (on a per case basis) but wow, it's unnerving

i was in a small meeting with our governor last week, and he has now tripped positive... and was very close with a county executive over the weekend who also has as of today... so I'm working from home this week and taking home quick tests, as the search for PCR tests is absurd right now

In the past 3 weeks ago I was in Amsterdam when this was all starting up. Was exposed to a crew member on that trip who came back and tested positive. I had no symptoms of anything after that. Last week I was in NYC with the wife for 3 days. This week I've been to Belgium, NYC and Chicago. I'm fully vaxxed as is my family, and we've all had boosters, but there's still a certain amount of trepidation about the amount of potential exposure I've had heading into the holiday with my Mom coming (she's also fully vaxxed with her booster). I know the overall risk is very low, but even still. It's there in the back of my mind for sure.

Wife and kids were scheduled to visit in-laws but we cancelled a couple weeks ago with the uncertainty with Omicron. Everyone's had their shots and boosters but everyone was uncomfortable with the risk being so close to the elderly folks.

So son and SIL are coming here for Christmas which is great.

******

We just came back from Costco to stock up for the extra visitors over the next 5 days. A little disappointed that Costco didn't seem to be enforcing masks.

FWIW - I like how Costco always has the OLED TVs by the entrance. May have to buy one next BF.

I didn't realize how accurate the at-home tests had gotten, and how many countries have already made them freely available, with the U.S. shortly doing so too.

That would really impact the reported numbers I would think. If people can just take a test at home, test positive, have some mild or so symptoms, test negative, get back to life without any official record of it all. If this thing is really burning through the population at a rate we can't even measure, it could really be a good thing if it leaves behind any immunity and it continues to leave the vaccinated only with mild or no symptoms.

Personally, I have no anxiousness or concern anymore. At some point that just disappeared, taking a back seat to anxiousness and concerns about the collateral impact of COVID on my life and mental health. I don't care about the risks one bit any more. That wasn't a choice, it just happened. I am respectful of all rules and others' concerns. But I'm feeling disconnected and anxious again about gatherings and plans and worrying about making sure everyone is comfortable. Because of that, I'm actually much more comfortable around people who I know are as unconcerned or even less so than me (as long as they're vaccinated.) I'm back to feeling awkward about trying to make plans with anyone.

I got the Pfizer booster yesterday, and just like with the first two shots I've had absolutely no issues aside from occasional mild soreness when I attempt to raise my arm above my head.

Thanks, it's nice to be back.

Just as a general post on the subject:

Do keep in mind there is a wide spread of accuracy, i bet there is some sort of ressource from the FDA that has a record of a bunch they tested or what they gathered from studies. Most (at least those approved by regulatory agencies) will be good at detecting it while being both symptomatic and having high viral load. That's the number they all then put on the box as accuracy.
It gets much murkier when it comes to those before symptoms and/or viral load not so high (but still not super low or anything), where even tests approved in Germany often drop to 50%. So just be aware of both the difference in quality, though one would hope the admin takes a good one, + the limitations if using them f.e. after a friend or colleague had it. In that case maybe don't take one once immediately after getting the news, but one a day for a couple days if you want to be sure. Same goes for symptoms, at least double check on day 2 if negative on day 1.
If used as a another safety tool before meeting, especially with people with decently hifh default risk (age, known health issues) and/or unvaccinated, it's sensible to really use them right before, not the day before or sth. ​

It's a good tool iindividually if used aappropriately. Collectively i fail to see any evidence of large scale effects, especially if they are obviously are meant to replace other precautions. (That's how many european countries viewed/used them, except less "at home" and more done at testing stations or buy organizers of Events). Too many people likely hide positive results and fail to inform contacts.
Also, many european countries extent immunity passports or similar to those recovered from infection. Due to this and notifying then of quarantine (which then also guarantees there are no problems with employers and getting sick leave and pay, of course) all positive Antigen Tests have to be confirmed via PCR. Just as an FYI and naming a few things people likely don't think of. Though i am not sure how stuff like staying home from work even is regulated in the US (except it not being very employee friendly compared to over here).

Also, such tests are quickly getting scarce in Europe. So i'd wait a bit in how available they end up being with high demand ...

I was wearing a face mask everywhere for a long time. I still do where it's required. But I think it's been shown that unless you're wearing a surgical-grade three-ply mask that's properly fitted, you're not doing much to help the situation.

So a proper mask requirement would also mean checking the mask itself. Given that it's hard enough to expect a business to enforce a mask requirement (many employees have been attacked), asking employees to understand and enforce a useful mask requirement would be impossible.

At least the disposable three-ply masks are reasonable in price. If Seinfeld were still in production, Elaine could ask if a particular shopping trip was "mask-worthy."

I guess we're transitioning into considering COVID endemic. Hindsight is impossible, but if that had been the goal from day one, I think we'd be in a much better place to handle it now - fewer deaths, too.