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-   -   Israeli-Hamas & Iran war (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=99006)

GrantDawg 06-21-2025 07:19 PM

The President of the United States, with some of the best intelligence assests in the world at his fingertips, just reposted "open source intel" that "Fordow is gone."

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Mota 06-21-2025 07:26 PM

Trump will bring peace to the world, no matter how many people he needs to kill to achieve it.

GrantDawg 06-21-2025 07:30 PM

It will be interesting to see if they break down the attack. I'm sure we will get some unofficial record. I know we supposedly had 6 B-2's at Diego Garcia, and several more launched out of Missouri early this morning supposedly heading to Guam. My guess is all were used in this attack.

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Edward64 06-21-2025 07:40 PM

I’m sure it’ll come out in the next several days.

Ready for morning (?) and assessment of how successful the strikes were. And how Iran will respond.

RainMaker 06-21-2025 07:43 PM

If they used B-2s which is being reporter, it was to drop MOABs.

Passacaglia 06-21-2025 07:43 PM

Welcome to 2003

GrantDawg 06-21-2025 07:46 PM

Israeli-Hamas & Iran war
 
Let's try again. Reports are saying 420 tons of 30k bombs were dropped on Fordow. That's 15 B-2, which is questionable since we only have 19 in service.

Fidatelo 06-21-2025 07:47 PM

- YouTube

Ghost Econ 06-21-2025 07:48 PM

I heard it was Tom Cruise, Miles Teller and Glen Powell.

Edward64 06-21-2025 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465091)
Let's try again. Reports are saying 420 tons of 30k bombs were dropped on Fordow. That's 15 B-2, which is questionable since we only have 19 in service.


Possibly B-52s also?

GrantDawg 06-21-2025 08:06 PM

Possible they were used, but they aren't fitted for the biggest MOP bombs.

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GrantDawg 06-21-2025 08:25 PM

Dola: It is possible the US dropped thousands of copies of "Cosmic Thing" on them.

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GrantDawg 06-21-2025 09:07 PM

8am press conference from DOD. Probably have some show off videos then. I wonder if we are going to get anything earlier.

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Edward64 06-21-2025 09:14 PM

From AP.

6 bunker busters at Fordo.

Tomahawks for the other 2 sites. I'm sure there's a reason but this seems weird to me. You'd think Israel could have handled those (e.g. tomahawks aren't bunker busters).

US strikes 3 Iranian sites, joining Israeli air campaign | AP News
Quote:

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately elaborate on the operation. But Fox News host Sean Hannity said shortly after 9 p.m. Eastern that he had spoken with Trump and that six bunker buster bombs were used on the Fordo facility. Hannity said 30 Tomahawk missiles fired by U.S. submarines 400 miles away struck the Iranian nuclear sites of Natanz and Isfahan.

bronconick 06-21-2025 09:14 PM

Man, if we had a Congress, I bet they'd be pretty pissed right now.

GrantDawg 06-21-2025 09:30 PM

"Kind of impressed that the apocalypse is this stupid."

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kingfc22 06-21-2025 10:26 PM

R’s were pissed that Biden didn’t get us out of Afghanistan sooner or something like that, I can’t keep up with all their hypocrisy and pearl clutching.

RainMaker 06-21-2025 11:39 PM

Fordo is like deep in the mountain. Ibreally doubt they were able to do much damage but maybe those bombs are more powerful than we know.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 03:29 AM

Fordow is supposed to be 260 feet deep into the mountain, and the GBU-57 is supposed to be able to penetrate 60-100 of concrete or rock. Daisy chaining 6 into the mountain theoretically should have penetrated deep enough. Of course, it has never been done so it is all theoretical. Even if they didn't do a complete breach, destroying the entrances and ventilation system is going to do some permanent damage. My understanding is the centrifuges are very fragile. Even the shock of the bombs are likely enough to destroy them.

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GrantDawg 06-22-2025 03:43 AM

I think the big question now is "what exactly will Iran do to strike back"? I dont think it is a matter of "if", but when and where. They could do something symbolic but not heavy, along the lines of there attacks after Soleimani. Just heard an expert on Skynews making that very suggestion, that it is more likely that one of the Iranian militia might carry out attacks but not the Iranian military themselves. If Iran decides to do something larger, it would most likely be attacks on the US fleet in the gulf. Mining the straight of Hormuz would be an option, but that will pull in a more international reaction. The biggest attack that could directly affect Americans on the mainland would be some kind of massive cyber attack. Hitting the power grid or air traffic control systems would definitely cause widespread panic.

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Edward64 06-22-2025 05:12 AM

Quote:

US officials told the BBC’s US partner CBS News that Washington had contacted Tehran through diplomatic channels before the strikes, making clear that no further attacks were planned and that regime change was not the goal.

Israel says it was in full co-ordination with the US ahead of the assault.

Nice for us to have given them a heads up. Wonder who and when e.g. the delegation in Geneva and like 10 min before?


Supposedly Fordow after the attack.

I can't tell much. I would have expected larger "craters or cave-in"? If the site was truly destroyed, pretty darn surgical to me.

Edward64 06-22-2025 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465111)
I think the big question now is "what exactly will Iran do to strike back"? I dont think it is a matter of "if", but when and where. They could do something symbolic but not heavy, along the lines of there attacks after Soleimani. Just heard an expert on Skynews making that very suggestion, that it is more likely that one of the Iranian militia might carry out attacks but not the Iranian military themselves. If Iran decides to do something larger, it would most likely be attacks on the US fleet in the gulf. Mining the straight of Hormuz would be an option, but that will pull in a more international reaction. The biggest attack that could directly affect Americans on the mainland would be some kind of massive cyber attack. Hitting the power grid or air traffic control systems would definitely cause widespread panic.


They don't really have any great options, and their "friends" aren't doing much other than words.

If they strike back in any significant way, they must know that Trump will retaliate.

I assume the goal is regime survival so personally, I'd just sign whatever they want in Geneva. Get it over with, get the IRGC to reestablish domestic control, start rebuilding, and plan for revenge 10+ years later.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 07:02 AM

Looking at those satellite pictures and people breaking them down, it looks like they struck directly at the centrifuges. They have early pics from 2009 where they were working in those areas and then closed them in. It looks like they directly targeted those vulnerabilities to go straight for the area where those centrifuges where set up.

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GrantDawg 06-22-2025 07:09 AM

They had Pete do this at 8am because he is too drunk after lunch to speak.

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GrantDawg 06-22-2025 07:18 AM

14 of the massive bunker busters is likely close to half of that ordinance the US has. No one knows the exact number but the belief it is only about 30 or so.

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dubb93 06-22-2025 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465118)
14 of the massive bunker busters is likely close to half of that ordinance the US has. No one knows the exact number but the belief it is only about 30 or so.

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It’s also cost us about 50 million in ordinance alone.

Edward64 06-22-2025 10:52 AM

Quote:

Following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, the Iranian Parliament has voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, according to media reports.

Any final decision on retaliation, however, will rest with the country's Supreme National Security Council and leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The parliament vote merely advises him of the option to pursue.

Khamenei, you get the next move ...

I suspect he knows they won't be able to keep it closed for long.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 12:04 PM

That's not just an attack on the US, and does increase the chances of escalation.

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flere-imsaho 06-22-2025 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465117)
They had Pete do this at 8am because he is too drunk after lunch to speak.


I like how the Trump bootlickers on social media are congratulating Drunk Pete for not leaking the attack plans this time.

RainMaker 06-22-2025 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93 (Post 3465119)
It’s also cost us about 50 million in ordinance alone.


Are we still doing the DOGE thing?

Brian Swartz 06-22-2025 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64
I suspect he knows they won't be able to keep it closed for long.


Why can't they?

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg
That's not just an attack on the US, and does increase the chances of escalation.


True, but unfortunately that's the case with pretty much any response, esp. in this part of the world. The days of not having drastic ripple effects are long gone. That's a can of worms you accept being opened by attacking Iran in the first place.

Atocep 06-22-2025 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3465130)
True, but unfortunately that's the case with pretty much any response, esp. in this part of the world. The days of not having drastic ripple effects are long gone. That's a can of worms you accept being opened by attacking Iran in the first place.


There's a decent chance Iran leadership actually comes out of this stronger. I don't think Israel has the capability to force a regime change and other countries (Russia, China, etc) could very well strengthen ties with Iran for a number of reasons.

This was shortsighted in a multitude of ways. I don't think Trump has any interest in boots on the ground, but funneling weapons and support to Iran to prop them up as a threat in the region would be a big win for Putin, Xi, and others if it keeps us occupied.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3465130)
Why can't they?


The US can and will reopen it. And they will not be alone, as that is an action against the world economy, not just the US.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3465130)
True, but unfortunately that's the case with pretty much any response, esp. in this part of the world. The days of not having drastic ripple effects are long gone. That's a can of worms you accept being opened by attacking Iran in the first place.

They have lots of options that do not risk expanding the fight beyond the US and Israel. Closing the Strait is not just an attack on the US, but against all the Gulf States and India and China that gets the vast majority of their oil from that region. Iran can target US military instillations, use their various militias to strike US interest, and as I said earlier launch cyberattacks against the US. None of that would necessarily draw other nations into the fight like trying to shut down the Gulf.

Edward64 06-22-2025 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3465130)
Why can't they?.


Because the US won’t let them as 20% of worlds oil goes through it.

RainMaker 06-22-2025 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3465131)
There's a decent chance Iran leadership actually comes out of this stronger. I don't think Israel has the capability to force a regime change and other countries (Russia, China, etc) could very well strengthen ties with Iran for a number of reasons.

This was shortsighted in a multitude of ways. I don't think Trump has any interest in boots on the ground, but funneling weapons and support to Iran to prop them up as a threat in the region would be a big win for Putin, Xi, and others if it keeps us occupied.


Geography wise it is nearly impossible to put boots on the ground without immense losses. The country is surrounded by mountains.

Atocep 06-22-2025 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93 (Post 3465119)
It’s also cost us about 50 million in ordinance alone.


We clawed some of that money back by having the bombing sponsored by coinbase.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3465139)
Geography wise it is nearly impossible to put boots on the ground without immense losses. The country is surrounded by mountains.

It really isn't. Iran would be a much tougher nut to crack than Iraq, but it is far from impossible.

flere-imsaho 06-22-2025 02:50 PM

Actually, the country is mostly mountains. Geographically it's more akin to Afghanistan than Iraq, which is flat as a pancake except for the very far north. Of course Iran has a coastline while Afghanistan does not.

It's not impossible, sure, but any invasion, much less occupation, would be much, much more costly in U.S. lives than either Iraq or Afghanistan.

I can't believe we're even contemplating this.

RainMaker 06-22-2025 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465142)
It really isn't. Iran would be a much tougher nut to crack than Iraq, but it is far from impossible.


Where is your entry point? How in the world are you making it to Tehran?

NobodyHere 06-22-2025 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3465144)
Where is your entry point? How in the world are you making it to Tehran?


I'm more worried about what we do when we get there.

RainMaker 06-22-2025 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3465136)
Because the US won’t let them as 20% of worlds oil goes through it.


China is the one you want to talk to about that. We have no say or power in that regard.

Passacaglia 06-22-2025 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3465136)
Because the US won’t let them as 20% of worlds oil goes through it.


Damn globalists

Edward64 06-22-2025 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3465146)
China is the one you want to talk to about that. We have no say or power in that regard.


No say or power?

Mr. Smith & Mr. Wesson says differently. But then, we live in different worlds.
Quote:

The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is headed to the Middle East to join a second carrier in the region, USS Carl Vinson.


flere-imsaho 06-22-2025 04:32 PM

This is like watching two 19-year-olds battle it out in a first year political science class.

Edward64 06-22-2025 04:33 PM

Probably doesn't help ease the tension/situation any ...

Quote:

Donald J. Trump Truth Social 06.22.25 04:55 PM EST

It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!


RainMaker 06-22-2025 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3465149)
No say or power?

Mr. Smith & Mr. Wesson says differently. But then, we live in different worlds.



The guys who surrendered to the Taliban?

All they have to do is lob missiles in the strait or send out drones and commercials liners will avoid it for liability reasons. If the Houthis could shut down shipping on the Red Sea, Iran can cause havoc there.

It's really yp to China.

RainMaker 06-22-2025 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3465151)
Probably doesn't help ease the tension/situation any ...


Its so funny that they are claiming the goal is to not let Iran get nukes but also call for the removal of Khamenei, the one person who has prevented Iran from making nukes.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3465144)
Where is your entry point? How in the world are you making it to Tehran?

Water and air. Same way they did in Afghanistan. You think they drive in? March?

RainMaker 06-22-2025 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3465155)
Water and air. Same way they did in Afghanistan. You think they drive in? March?


Ignoring the fact that we lost that war, Iran actually has defenses and a much tougher terrain. Pakistan is also not letting us use their country as staging for this war.

Your only option is the Gulf and that's if Saudi Arabia allows us to send hundreds of thousands of troops through. And with only one way in, you're taking a ton of casualties to just enter Iran and still be a long ways from their most important cities.

People really need to look up Iran on a map. There's a reason why every military expert considers it suicide.

GrantDawg 06-22-2025 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3465153)
The guys who surrendered to the Taliban?

All they have to do is lob missiles in the strait or send out drones and commercials liners will avoid it for liability reasons. If the Houthis could shut down shipping on the Red Sea, Iran can cause havoc there.

It's really yp to China.

If we wanted to leave troops in Afghanistan forever, the Taliban wouldn't be in power and we would still have operational control there with just a few thousand troops. We can project power very well. The problem in Afghanistan was political, not military.
And Houthis inconvenienced shipping the Red Sea. They were still moving ships through. The Strait is much more straight forward to defend. It is not as much space to contain and control. They tried to do it one time before, and US task force stopped it. Their technology has gotten better, but so has ours. I'm not saying it would be a cake walk, but it is again far from impossible.
I still don't buy they will do it. Again, the countries most inconvenience by shutting down shipping out of the Gulf would be India and China who get over 50% of their oil from there. We get about 10%. This is the big threat, but the actual action will be something else.


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