Thank you!

I say we bring henry and one from his list up for lynch vote. As laid out above we learn exactly what we need to know either way. If he is telling the truth his power has been shot anyway and is of no use from here out.

The seer role should scan someone else from the list. Jackal seems to be vocal about his vote, maybe him? We either find another wolf with that scan or clear someone from the questionable list. At that point it is a slam dunk victory.

My concern is worst case scenario. Best case henry is telling the truch and we win no matter what at this point. Worst case he is the traitor and is leading us down a path to end game for the wolves.

Our goal should be learning as much as possible with every lynch. Making henry the second candidate achieves that.

you're overstating things - the first time i said i was "leaning towards a vote for you" and never even put one on you.

WTF is with everyone having their panties in a wad this game?

Henry's list matches up with mine though (with the exception of eliminating two additional suspects - one of whom i have as questionable and one who i hope to move off the list entirely). And we've arrived at them through entirely different sources...what do you have to say about that?

Either way, I am going to get some sleep.

Please think over what I have proposed. How is that a desperate move? If I was a wolf why would I offer up CR on day 2 when no wolves were lost as of yet, especially with his role?

I am simply trying to keep us from potentially being led the wrong way. We hedge our bets and win either way.

I'm off to bed for the evening and won't be able to respond until tomorrow evening by then I hope we have a lynch. I think Thomkal is the right place to start given his unwillingness to move towards CR.

Sure you can test to see if I'm the traiotr since we have already got the pool of wolves and one mis-step won't cost the game with about 12/13 villagers and 4 wolves left. However, you will be wrong. Also, does the traitor usually know the identies of the wolves?

I still believe that with EagleFan's power he is good, but the harder he keeps pushing, the more likely I will be to consider you as one of the wolves. Especially with four wolves left, I can't even see how this would be a end-game play.

I'll throw this out there now, but the only way my list could lead us astray is if there is a cunning wolf and it caused me to be told there were no conspirators and there is really one. As we get closer to the end, we should be able to figure it out.

that being said - we can at least give your idea a shot...sure.

See the results of the first two lynches. I can't exactly trust what you have on your list. None of us should blindly trust that.

hmmm


UNVOTE EAGLEFAN

I prefer to believe henry for selfish reasons.

ntn has proved himself fairly effectively. As I think I've mentioned nfg comes off to me as sensitive misguided villager. DT seems to feel all right about saldana. That leaves me, PB and henry if you want to go this route.

PB is being investigated (did I see that somewhere?) so he should become clear. I've given DT my info and see no need to reveal it in public.

I don't know. I think it's easier to believe henry's story than not.

It seems like a very risky play unless henry is cunning and made up his powers. But that seems doubtful.

LOL

i explicitly stated that i didn't have any degree of trust in either of those first two lynched people. :banghead::banghead:


i find it curious how you're so against trusting any of my information despite the fact that i am the only villager that you know is good and a huge asset to the village.

I'm with DT on that one, EF. He never suggested he felt strongly that KWhit or clap were bad. He never even really suggested he had any info, it was just suspicions. Now these lists are being based off of people's abilities.

your last sentence is incorrect. these lists now are based off of more than that (with the exception of ntn and purduebrad)

Bare with me here:

If there are 4 wolves left it is 12-4 now (if I counted right there are 16 people left)

If henry is the traitor and we lynch someone from his list that is a villager it is 10-4 after the night kill.

What do we do next? Do we lynch him or hope that we just picked the wrong person from his list?

If we take option A from above we drop to 8-4 and are back to square one. Not end game but it puts us close enough for them as we will have wasted several days on hunches and then trickery by the traitor.

If we chose option B we end up in a really bad position as we lynch a villager and go to 8-4 before turning on henry and that lynch makes it 6-4. We are then one bad lynch away from losing.

This is assuming the wolves can't make multiple kills. They had a kill and an attempt on Jack tonight based on the write up. If they can do multiple kills again it becomes that much more dangerous.

Maybe I am overthinking but at least we can learn the truth if we make him the second candidate. If he is what he says we are at 10-4 and have a very narrow list to chose from (in which the votes should probably be able to tell us who is bad). Especially if we can scan someone from the list tonight as we can potentially narrow that list down even more.


I see no way that we can lose by taking that approach.

I meant based on other people's abilities, such as scanning, interrogating, things that produce real evidence. Am I wrong about that?

I think, EF, that DT is suggesting he knows henry is good unless he is cunning, which means he has gotten a scan by some means, which means the only way your scenario works is if henry is the cunning. Is that right?

I don't argue with your math though, I don't want it to be 8-4 like that.

Especially since I've watched multiple seasons of 24, and most of them have threats of mass-killing, which can't bode well for us. I wouldn't put it past hoops and BK to have death girls and such running around in the form of nuclear weapons or airborne gases.

EF, are you suggesting not to vote for say Thomkal and instead take a shot on henry's list?

I think he's suggesting we vote for henry instead of thomkal

at this point the seer should continue to stay hidden btw - until there is either another wolf that they discover (if we are not on that person already that day), or until they can add say...3 more people to the CoT (the two people who are linked for instance, by scanning the one with the longer screenname, and then someone else who is on the list of suspected people)

you are correct about that

I am just trying to give us a way to cover all of our bases and guarantee a win even under the worst case scenario.

How can what I proposed become a bad thing? At worst it delays our victory by a day.

I still can't believe that no one has questioned henry's claimed ability. I think that sounds potentially too powerful to be true. Great for us if it is but I have always held the belief that no power should have the ability to produce potentially multiple hits and thus change the game in one moment to end game as it pretty much discounts what everyone else within the game has done.

It doesn't sound that powerful. He saved it for a good time when he seems to have gotten lucky by having no wolves vote with him.

Though now that I think about it, somewhat strange that no wolves would be on Telle with CR in the running?

We could just lynch Thomkal and deal with the henry situation tomorrow though, EF. It'd give people another day to gather evidence that potentially proved or disproved what henry said.

Suppose we lynch henry - what if the PM that we get doesn't fully spell out every inch of his powers? Are you going to believe him then, or not?

Cuz I can see if you're a wolf how you'd hope for that and then twist it to fit your ends

How powerful is it if it comes back saying there was one wolf in that group? Not very.

It's the fact that nobody in that group came back as a wolf that makes it powerful.......and it's also a pretty unlikely result. I think we caught a break.

Now, if we get nowhere in the next day or so, I'm more than willing to revisit the idea. But right now I think we've got more productive outlets (and yes, I realize that being on the list might affect how you read this post).

I say put someone from henry's list up against henry. I would rather we have a voting history instead of a slam dunk runaway. Personally, I would rather see henry lynched first to see if he is telling the truth. If he is then we go after his list for the win. If he is the traitor and was lying to us than we have only lost one day. From there we look at DT's list, most likely the ones that henry clears with his list.

Every snippet that we have gotten after death/lynch spells out the powers. It should be pretty obvious.

A bit tipsy, but I'm glad to see that we got one of the wolves in CR. I also am a little bit suspicious of henry's power (and not just because he seems to finger me) for the simple reason that I think ER is correct that it would be suspicious for none of the wolves to vote for Telle considering that she was the first person to start hammering on CR. You would think at least one would try to protect their own, right? The fact that none did appears to be very weird.

No power should be that potentially powerful. The games should be decided by the choices the players make and not one power that could potentially produce multiple hits and end the game. If it is his power than so be it. We learn, we lynch, we win. How simple can it be in that case?

If we get nowhere in the next day or so? :banghead: That is just what the wolves would want. If we get nowhere in the next day or so than we have almost handed them the game as we will have learned NOTHING. What possible problem could you have with this if you are not a wolf? At worst it potentially delays us one f*&#*ng day. At best it keeps us from wasting "a day or so" WITHOUT LEARNING ANYTHING. This IS the most productive outlet.

I am dumbfounded how anyone that is a villager can see this as a bad idea? Hell, with the lynch percentage rules it may not even be one full day that we lose as we can pretty much lynch away if we see he is telling the truth.

Well, personally I'm pretty dumbfounded that you would want to take the momentum we got from today's lynch and reveals and ignore them in favor of an angle that frankly doesn't seem very high percentage to me. And banging your head against the wall at comments that are trying to engage you doesn't compel me to pursue the conversation much further.

But hey, investigate away. I'm not convinced though and will be looking at other angles.

oh man - guys henry won't be on until like 8:30 tomorrow night.

so we might have to wait some time for a lynch. i was just thinking that we could certainly use the help of a particular individual with this one...

What other angles can you possibly investigate? You seem to believe henry and if he is telling the truth it is GAME OVER and nothing left to investigate.

If he is lying we learn nothing as we lynch a villager and then lynch him. and are just closer to losing.

If we lynch him and he is telling the truth all we do is WIN ONE DAY LATER.

If we lynch him and find out he is lying we learn a lot and don't waste time following a cold trail.

What is so difficult to understand here?

We hedge out bets and increase our odds. What can we possibly lose by doing this? Not one person can answer that.

You think that'll be positive for the village, eh?

That was a question for DT, btw.

Well I mean it's not game over, it's not like we'd have every single wolf nailed down. We'd have a pretty small group to choose from, but there seem to be a lot of things happening in this game.

We would have a list of what? 6 people with 3 or 4 of them being wolves?

If there are 4 we would be sitting at 10-4. Even if we pick the wrong two on the first two chances it's still 6-4 and we would pick them off one at a time after that.

If there are 3 then we are at 11-3. If we pick the first 3 wrong it's still 5-3 and we pick them off one at a time.


Worst case scenario is that he is a traitor who is lying. We lynch a villager and are at 10-4 but with no good list to go on. If we then lynch him to get rid of the potential confusion he could try to cause it's 8-4 and we still have no good list.


Weigh risk versus reward and it looks clear to me. We can basically run out the clock by kneeling. Why do we want to risk throwing the ball?

I wouldn't just assume there is going to be a normal lynch/kill timeline in this game, man.

But I definitely understand your argument. It does seem unlikely he's the cunning wolf, but it's possible.

I still find it likelier that Thomkal is a wolf, but I'll sleep on what you said.

no good list to go on? how about my list that matches his and was arrived at by completely different means? are you just throwing that out entirely??

I'll say it again. If henry is the traitor how much can we trust that list?

are you sitting there trying to build a case for throwing out my list EagleFan??
really??

Still no one person has offered any valid reason for why this is a bad idea. Anyone?

BK is out for the night and I'll be hit (and mostly miss) for the next couple of hours ... don't break anything for awhile, OK?

wow. really??

VOTE EAGLEFAN

I am trying to cover our bases. What is wrong with that? It guarantees us a win and keeps us from any potential shenanigans.

Tell me how much you can trust your list if henry turns up traitor? Then your arguement of "arrived at the same list" doesn't hold much water.

I am not saying that this is the case but why not take precautions to make sure it isn't.

Not worried about cunning. It wouldn't be a good play if he were cunning. Worried about traitor. This is 24 after all so why wouldn't there be a traitor?

100%

my list is based on my interrogations, soothsayer results, and seer scans. it has absolutely nothing to do with henry's list. the two are entirely unrelated - they just both happen to arrive at the same conclusions.

i'll put that up against your crazy theories 7 days of the week, and twice on sundays.

i think it's becoming increasingly clear to me minute by minute that you're most likely a wolf grasping at straws or else off-your-rocker.

notice how EagleFan is trying to build a case already to throw out my list everyone - just want to point that out very clearly to everyone.

How thick are you? It's simple logic. If henry ends up being the traitor and has presented the same list that you have (which is not correct as only 2 of the 4 you listed are the same so that throws that out the door) than how much can that list be trusted (unless you think the traitor is going to give us the actual list of wolves). Don't get your damn panties in a bunch because someone makes a valid point.

It's one freaking day to test the theory. Are you that fragile that you are afraid of the results? One day, one test. If he is telling the truth I tip my hat to him and say thank you for winning the game for us.

you're reading my list wrong.

our lists are identical except his list eliminates two people off mine.

oh so now you don't want to have an actual two-player race with henry and someone else? you'd rather have us pile on henry in a runaway?? i can't vote for you?

Actually, I've said it was a bad idea because it takes us away from the momentum we just got, and DT said it was a bad idea because it matches up pretty well with his list......

i'm actually okay with making it a two-person race tomorrow, but now EagleFan seems to be saying i can't vote for him (implying we should all pile on Henry in a runaway despite what he said earlier about wanting a 2-person race), and also trying to lay the framework for discarding the list of cleared/uncleared people that we have. And that to me screams desperate wolf (maybe just looking to get henry lynched in revenge as they feel the game is slipping away?)

What is your f$#*&ng problem with this list? I am getting tired of hearing your whining about someone "questioning your list".

I am offering potential scenario in which we could lose and lose badly and a way to cover up for it. Can you understand that if henry is the traitor and has the "same" list it means we need to rethink the list.

How many damn times do I have to say it? We make one vote to test henry's story. What are you afraid of?

If henry is valid than I will be happy to admit that I am wrong as we win the game. If henry turns up traitor are you going to be stubborn enough to insist we continue to lynch people who were on his list just because they were on yours?

I am asking that we be flexible enough to consider the possibility that he is lying to us. I can't buy that a power would have that much affect on the game and to be honest it would take away from the win in my eyes.

you're really starting to piss me off with your attitude. i'm not even going to respond to this tonight...i'm going to bed.

fuck that - yes i will respond.

No I cannot understand that if henry has the same list we have to rethink the list. Because the lists are INDEPENDENT! He arrived at his, that's great. Meantime, I was INDEPENDENTLY, WITHOUT ANY INPUT FROM HIM, arriving at the same list. My list does not depend on his for validity in any way, shape, or form.

And if henry turns up traitor yes i will continue to insist we lynch people who were on his list/my list BECAUSE ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE CANNOT BE CUNNING WOLVES AND THEREFORE THERE MUST BE ALL THE WOLVES EXCEPT A POTENTIAL CUNNING AMONG THEM!!!!

Momentum? This isn't college football. Momentum has nothing to do with WW.

Does it match up with everyone's list? Matching the list is not an arguement for why this is a bad idea, it's more of an arguement for just giong after the list (adding value to one side does not prove the other bad).

What is lost by making this a two person race with henry and someone on his list? If henry goes first we learn. If he doesn't we can still learn no matter what the results of the lynch are (who tried to save who).

Like I said. We can run the clock out by kneeling down, why do we want to throw a pass, even if it is a "safe" pass.

Where's Poli when he's really needed.

You are pretty thick stubborn. I am not saying that everyone on his list is cunning. I am not saying that the list is definitely bad. I am saying that ON THE CHANCE THAT HE IS A TRAITOR IT MOST CERTAINLY BRINGS THE LIST INTO QUESTION. It's a simple thing to grasp.


Chance of henry being the traitor 1 in 13 (figuring you already know the seer and you are out of the equation for him being the traitor and I know PB's role and have had it confirmed by another and it seems legit). List = questionable

Chance of henry not being the traitor 12 in 13. List = good


I am not saying your precious list is bad. I am saying it IS questionable if henry turns out to be the traitor. How hard is that to understand?

I am also saying that your lists are NOT the same. You list 4 people, he lists 4 primary people. Of those only 2 are the same. That does not sound like the "same list" to me.

Why would you insist that we lynch people on his list if he is a traitor? That makes no sense at all. Do you actually think that he would give us a list of actual woves if he were the traitor?

I'm out. Hopefully everyone else wil be able to see my reasoning. How can that list be good if henry is the traitor? It would be the dumbest move in WW history to give us the actual list of wolves as the traitor. Yet DT is too damn stubborn to admit this and thinks that by some strange event the list will still be wolves if henry is the traitor.

You can hire out The Jester for disciplinary action. And.. I'm going to sleep.

But Lathum's not here. I thought that void needed filled. :devil:

Beep, beep, beep, beep...

I had to check something else before leaving for work, so I thought I pop on for a second.

I had a similar thought, but remember CR was on Telle so there was a wolf on her. At the time of CR's death, he was not the leading vote getter, so I don't think the wolves necessarily felt it important to get another vote on her with a number of people who hadn't voted yet.

One final thought.

I'd argue that without my reveal the wolves are in a decent place with likely 4 remaining. Therefore, reducing the need for such a dramatic play. However, if the majority thinks that I need to be sacrificed to prove my list, go ahead b/c we are going to win anway. I'm willing to stand on my sword since I had nothing to the game after last night.

While EagleFan's is good to pose the questions about my loyalties, I don't think a play to make it 8-4 with still lots of other potential for being discovered is a good wolf/traitor move.

Let me pose on more thing for validation. i mentioned that I learned the name of the character who also voted for Telle. That person is Sherry Palmer and I think at least two people can vouch for that fact.

Damn, we can't PM? I'll catch up on the rest of this when I get to work. DT, let me know if you want me of service here.

Well, I can assume that since I have not revealed my identity to anyone, that the other person that can vouch for me being Sherry Palmer is a seer of some sort. So rather than make them do it, I am Sherry Palmer.

Oops - you're misreading my list. The 4 people that I listed on separate lines were the BOTTOM of my list (the "most trusted of the least trusted"). Everyone else I listed in paragraph form above that, and that is the list that matches up with henry's (except his actually removes two from the bottom of mine).

*shaking my head* guess I should go back and list that out more clearly

can BrianD talk again?

Reposted with bolding because people seem to be missing the top part of my list.

Bottom line (assuming no cunning, although i think that may end up being faulty - but we cross that bridge when we get to it): our wolves lie in the group of:

Untrusted:
Thomkal, Jackal, kingfc22, EagleFan, ISiddiqui, autumn, pass, path, saldana

That is based on MY list. Of that list, I hope to be able to move pass + saldana off of it entirely soon, and i would rank them as LOW chance of being wolves. Path is the next least likely, and then autumn in my mind, based on their roles and what they've demonstrated of their powers.

so the bottom of MY list looks like this:

7. autumn
8. path
9. pass/saldana

The other 5 people are in one big clump at the top.


Henry's list subtracts Path and Saldana from mine if we are to believe his powers (and i have no reason not to, and every reason to believe them, just saying). Of those, I think Path is the more relevant, as I am just waiting for corroboration before moving Saldana off of mine anyways

*waves to isiddiqui* - do you want to try to use your power on someone? just to see what it does?

Yeah, may not be a bad idea. Perhaps it'll be able to co-ordinate with someone else's powers in some fashion.

let me look over the list of people with roles and offer you some suggestions at some point today - have a feeling i'm about to get busy for a couple hours though

oh hoops - maybe you should post whatever the reminder on the first page is about weekend play, since it's Friday morning

Alright... I should be around at some point this afternoon. Well, at least right before coffee time ;).

We are planning on "stopping the clock" at some point on Friday evening and resuming the clock early Monday morning. People will still be able to post in the thread, but no actions will be processed during that period of time.

I'll defer to Barkeep on what he would like for the stop time to be this evening since he is going to be around much later in the day than me. If people have strong thoughts on this feel free to post on it in the thread.

One last post about my ideas. I will probably be tied up much of the day so I don't know how much I will be online until later.

Without the drama here is the idea.

We vote henry AND one from his list. If we keep it close we will be able to get an idea about voting history.

If henry's/DT's list is good the wolves are desperate and it will probably be obvious who moves to get henry lynched (if he is telling he truth).

At the same time it may make it clearer if the other person from his list gets lynched to see just who tried to swing the vote that way (if henry is not telling the truth).

I was not proposing a straight up lynch of henry as we learn nothing from that.

It's just a way to cover our bases and I personally cannot see how this can be a bad thing.

Hell, I seem to be on a list of not trusted even though I had CR nailed early. I would have no problem being the second candidate against henry. Unfortunately that scenario is one of the lower psercentage moves as I know I am good and I think there is a good chance that henry is. I have never said "HENRY IS NOT GOOD", just proposed a what is scenario for us to be concerned with.

The worst thing that we can do is get so rigidly stuck in a rut to think that the list someone else has developed HAS to bo correct. I am not saying the list is NOT correct, just that we need to be open for other avenues on the off chance that we get hit with a surprise.

Last night a statement was made that even if henry was a traitor the list would be insisted upon being used. Can everyone else please tell me how this makes sense? It doesn't. If henry is good, hell yeah we use the list. If henry is bad we need to re-examine everything.

I AM NOT SAYING HENRY IS BAD. I AM JUST SAYING WHAT IF. THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH BEING PREPARED FOR WHAT IF. I have a very hard time comprehending that being PREPARED for what if is a BAD thing.

One last time.

If henry is good, we win. If henry is not good, we can be prepared and will have played to be prepared instead of wasting another day, or worse two.

Forgot to add this:

This is a game based on 24. I think we should be prepared for the unexpected.

@soothsayer - there's a line in 1887 for you. i presume you can see it - 8th "paragraph"

interesting...seems to be no night kill?

I'm curious what the vote count is. How many people ended up on Thomkal last night?

!!

they tried to kill me - silly wolves :lol:

lol - poli fail!

So the night kill has been made?

Realistically, we know we can't stop the clock but only hope to contain it.

I actually thought Danny was the night kill. I'm still catching up on last night, but I want to be sure about this if that's cool.

oh that's right - so apparently they had 2 again through some mechanism.

i forgot about losing our buddy danny.

Did they make a second attempt on you DT? I think understanding the night kill schedule could be key here, especially if they can make multiple kills at a time.

I think EF has something of a point, Henry could be a cultist type character and buying the wolves time. With multiple kills they could winnow us down quick. I suppose he could be a cunning wolf too, as DT has pointed out, that's the one flaw in his trust list.

I tend to think the simpler explanation though is the better. EF figures he's got enough trust with DT by pushing CR early that he can muddy the waters safely.

I'll have something in a bit. Just want to get caught up first.

I think I should actually take a lot of the blame for clap -- after all I was the one who put the first vote on him, and kept pressing him to reveal all day. I think it will look (somewhat) understandable soon.

Ooh that's cold, sorry Danny.

So day 1 they made two kills, right? Day 2, one. Day 3 they made two kills again. Seems we can expect one today.

I'll await the results of this soothsayer test if you think it will give us an answer, DT.

Seems like they did. So the wolves have the ability to launch 2 kills at a time. So maybe the first night wasn't a villager kill like we thought, but a double wolf kill?

Yes they made a second attempt on me. It failed of course, cuz I am Jack Bauer!!!

Henry could be a cultist or a cunning wolf. Those are the only 2 flaws with my "high trust" list.

FWIW - EagleFan has no trust with me. He appears on my list of uncleared people and that's it. Also my list of people with powers we can't verify - and by verify I mean something like NTN's where we can all see it in action and see it nab us a wolf or result in a positive for the village. Yes he listed CR on his PM to me as "questionable"...I admit that. But that's not really enough to put him onto my "medium trust" list. At best it puts him as "least likely in the larger group of uncleared to be a wolf"

I'm not a big fan of trust lists in general, so you know mine is going to be pretty exclusive and the criteria are going to be high to get on.