He pretty much said so with post 1105. Here is your reply...

damn he left

You are right, Blade did pretty much say that he thought LSG was a seer. I'm not advocating that we lynch her or anything, I'm just checking our assumptions.

LSG, I'm not asking you to reveal more information than you are comfortable revealing. Again, just checking assumptions.

One more assumption to check, Alan, you did say that Izulde got role information but not light/dark affiliation. Do you have a way of knowing what the roles that he sees are? You mentioned the Inn Keeper and the Dwarven Storyteller. Are you assuming that the dark members won't have a normal-sounding job in town? Also, do you know Izulde is good or are you taking LSG's word for it?

Blade isn't allowed to answer that. its not really sporting since he is dead.

Today is veterans day though!

Spleen, he also said he talking to dodgerchick about 10 posts earlier... i thought at the time it might have been a slip of the fingers

LSG, thats why im avoiding it. Im dead, so we can talk after the game about whatever you would like

Alant, he can say yes or no.... plus Briand I know izulde is good

It's really not a good idea that he give thoughts on the game since he is dead.

I know Izulde is good, and the roles usually are pretty descriptive. its not the one liner that you get from the first page at death. I knew that Lathum was a dwarf who told story to children. I know Swaggs is a hospitable innkeeper for instance.

I mean sure the bad guys could have a role that tells stories to kids.. but I would think it more likely it would be passing out candy to kids :)

Sorry I digress...


Either way, one thing we have to keep in mind is that its very possible that the bad guys also get a seer role of some sort. Saruman and Sauron both had palantirs that they could use to scan people with and learn about their actions.

Having someone in this game at this point tell me information about me doesn't necessarily clear them in my mind. Thats why I don't want to take the risk of lynching the wrong seer. Lets let the bad guys do that for us.

I heard you say that he was good, I was just looking for outside confirmation from Alan if he has any info.

Yes, this list I trust:

1. AlanT
11. Swaggs
13. Jonathan Ezarik
19. Izulde
22. Grammaticus
24. DaddyTorgo - Ventrick


Swaggs has a list he trusts:

Mr.Wednesday
Schmidty
Jonathan Ezarik


Thomkal has a list he trusts:

Jonathan Ezarik
Schmidty
Mr.Wednesday

Lonestargirl has a list she trusts:

Alan T
Izulde


My thoughts is for today we avoid anyone on any of those lists. There are a handful of people not on any list that we can tackle.

Alant, how could you lynch the wrong seer? I am the only seer? I can reveal right now what you are and what you do to prove i am the seer.

Out of those remaining:

2. BrianD
6. ntndeacon
7. spleen1015
9. Tyrith
12. Dodgerchick
23. Sublime 2

I am feeling ok for now about Dodgerchick and Spleen. Don't trust them, but leaning more to the side they appear ok to me than not.

If I had to choose, I would do a run off today between ntndeacon and sublime

i also trust tyrnth because he vouched so hard to lynch thomkal yesterday

Another hobbit named Nob?

I think I am fine with the plan of leaving Thomkal and LSG alone for the day. We've just had so many reveals in the past few days that I'm trying to wrap my head around all of them. Since I'm not involved in any of them and I have no information, I have to figure out what can and should be believed. I also need to make sure that nobody is pushing things in a bad direction.

That is a typo. My name is Hob. it is an honest mistake.

Like I said, I think the chance the bad guys have a seer role is very possible in this game, one that can reveal information about others. I would assume if you are the good seer like i currently think, you will respect that I have no way to prove this about you otherwise. What I am asking for is to let the bad guys make that move for us.

I think a run off today between ntndeacon and Sublime, two unknowns who both managed to avoid heat yesterday from Blade and myself. I noticed alot of the people who were not voting for ntndeacon are those not on the cleared list.

I think those two is the best place to start today

Why would you trust Tyrith for this? What role could he have that would provide him the information to know Thomkal was lying here? I think Tyrith has to stay on the untrust list until "proven" otherwise

I would really like to see Tyrith lynched today. I have been suspecting him since Day 2 or 3. ntndeacon isn't a bad choice either with all of the suspicion swirling around him.

Sigh, well, in this land of ultra-convenient role reveals I am screwed on the island of vanilla people. My name is Canae Hightower, I'm the town miller. I have no idea who I am or where I came from beyond that -- my role PM didn't even give me a race. And I do precisely nothing for a night action.

Alan, how does keeping both seers alive force their hand?

Short of letting me live through today and seering me, and barring even more information gathering roles being revealed, you aren't going to get proof. It's sad but true, I'm not good enough to be scanned :(

For whatever its worth, I can see two scenerios right now in my head. One putting a dark cloud on LSG, one on Thomkal. I honestly don't know which to believe which is why I am pushing for neither right now.

1) Lonestargirl is actually a bad guy seer. She knows information about people she scanned because its her role, she just is on the bad guy's side. She was waiting till the real seer to reveal and then set it up to force the good guys to lynch the wrong seer by revealing what she knows making her sound more "real".

2) Thomkal is actually a bad guy, and he gave three names of people who were good guys to try to save himself from the lynch. If he ended up getting lynched anyways, suspicion would be on those three good guys and the villagers would waste time spinning their wheels trying to figure out which if any of those were bad. His move was to try to draw out the real seer to night kill.


Currently I am believing #2 is more likely the case and leaning to thinking LSG is most likely good, but because of reasonable doubt I won't sell my cow for either of these guys magic beans.

LSG right now good or bad probably feels she has the upper hand knowing one little part of my reveal that I enhanced a little bit which she could reveal, but it obviously isn't a huge deal since either way I am good. If she feels she needs to do it then so be it, but i have my reasons for doing what I do:)

The fact that your zeal has been so insane and consistent is the only thing that will keep you safe tomorrow, one way or another.

Because then the bad guys have to make the decision to either continue the ruse by keeping our real seer alive another day to keep their seer out of suspicion, or they kill the real seer and help tell us exactly who the next bad guy to lynch is.

vote ntndeacon

I know Dodgerchick has a vote out already, but I am hoping she will reconsider and move it. I think a run off between ntndeacon and sublime is best for today.

I'll go with ntndeacon for the third straight day. Please don't take my continuing to vote for him day after day as a sign I know more than I am letting on about him. I don't know anything about ntndeacon right now other than almost the entire untrust list did not vote for him yesterday which is very telling to me.

I agree that #2 sounds more likely, but I do have a nagging suspicion since Blade "outted" LSG and nobody took her out.

To be honest, I also have to consider the possibility that #1 is true and that you are on her team. You could easily feed her information to "see" through your "enhanced" reveal.

I'm not accusing anyone, but also being a vanilla villager means that I can't take anything on faith.

The only problem I have with this plan is that it's highly likely to get me killed today, but I suppose those are the woes of playing WW. But the way that the trust lists have all come together in the last few hours is just too cute. I wonder what the result on Swaggs action would have been if Jonathan, Schmidty, or W were on the opposite bad guy team from Thomkal? This is a possibility that can't be discounted, even if it shouldn't be chased down today.

And you're lucky that LSG cleared you, or your role reveal wouldn't have helped you out, Alan.

I want to see Schmidty finally reveal his role, that's been going on long enough.

Barring even more new information I will probably vote for Thomkal.

If you're willing to spare me, let's go. I still have quite a bit of trust for sublime. Screw running down Thomkal.

VOTE SUBLIME

I understand that, its possible, however I have a feeling that Izulde will vouch completely for me. And as far as I can tell Izulde and LSG either have been very good actors or really distrusted each other. I also have a feeling I'll get vouched for by many other people. I'm not entirely worried about my trust, but can understand in a game like this nothing is ever absolute.

I will say however that I am pretty sure all of our seers (fake or real) will likely confirm I'm good, regardless of what team they are on. I actually dare someone to come out and say I'm not. :)

One other thing I looked at.. the people on my "watch list" for today and their votes from yesterday:

2. BrianD - Izulde, Thomkal
6. ntndeacon - izulde, thomkal
7. spleen1015 - tyrith, izulde
9. Tyrith - sublime, mr.wednesday, izulde, thomkal
12. Dodgerchick - Schmidty, Mr.Wednesday
23. Sublime 2 - izulde

Not sure it tells us alot just yet.

Alan, it should tell you that I have no freaking idea what I'm doing ;)

Consider me your vote slave for today. I don't think I'm allowed to make another sudden move or I'll get ritualistically slaughtered, so I'll do whatever the village thinks is best.

I will grant you that having the entire untrust list not voting for me looks bad. I would still be surprised if none of the bad guys did not vote for me. And if I assume I get lynched today, we will all see another villager vs villager battle. (I am SURE everyone believes this now. lol But it will bear out nonetheless )

Here is my laundry list that I want from Thomkal. Posting it here so someone please remind me when he does show back up..

1) Who did you (Thomkal) scan last night?

2) What was the result of your scan last night?

3) What is your character name, race and role title?

If you choose to not answer these questions, I will choose to not believe your story any longer.

If you choose to lie about any of it, I'm sure I'll find out.

Well. This sure is getting interesting. I'm not sure what to make of LSG's claim of being a seer, although she has moved closer to me "good" column. I really wish Thomkal was around, and I find it fishy that he didn't tell us who he scanned last night. I don't care if he's not feeling well, at least give us that.

I know I was heavily behind Thomkal last night, but after sleeping on it I'm not so sure. Looking back, calling out Mr. W, Schmidty, and I to save himself does sound evil. At the time he was going to die. And if he dies and it turns out he's evil, then the three he named get clumped into the evil bin as well. It sounds like a good play by a wolf to bring down even more people. And of course, there's this bit of news from Swaggs:


Note it doesn't say that Thomkal knows that we are good, just that he believes it. I would think that a seer would know for a fact who's good and who isn't.

Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that Thomkal is evil. It is possible that LSG is an evil seer, or perhaps Thomkal is an evil seer (if he's even a seer at all). I agree with the opinion of keeping these two alive and seeing how they play out over the next couple of days.

I agree with Alan that we can't lynch either of the potential seers today. Pick the wrong one and it's game, set, match Dark. We need to get a bad guy today.

My CoT (first one I've ever made)

1. Alan T
11. Swaggs
13. Jonathan Ezarik
19. Izulde
22. Grammaticus
24. DaddyTorgo

Dodgerchick is real close to being in my CoT as well.

So a run-off between Sublime and ntn, huh? Since Alan is in my CoT and he voted ntn and Tyrith, who is high on my suspicious list after his weirdness in flipping out and changing votes last night, voted Sublime, the choice is clear.

VOTE NTNDEACON

Sigh, why is everyone after me for last night when Dodger, LSG, and blade, and perhaps more, agreed with the move? And did anyone else notice that Thomkal finished with _eight_ votes on him? There are more people in this game than me, I just happen to be one of the louder ones :P

I think it was more your tone of afterwards going way overboard about the impact of it :) You were probably the most noticable (well you and LSG).

The reason I chose to not target you today is if Thomkal ends up bad, then while you aren't cleared you look less fishy to me. If Thomkal ends up good then... well yeah sorry but you have to go. :)

Glad to see you trust yourself. :)

As a person who suffers from migraines, I'm willing to give this action a pass. Depending on the type of migraine, there are times when I have to lie in a dark room with pillows over my head to block out any bit of light or sound or else I'll be throwing up from the pain. This could be a ploy to give himself more time to think, but I'm not willing to demand anything from a guy with a migraine.

If Thomkal is good then you should kill LSG before me. If Thomkal is bad then my going overboard was mostly correct...I just hate that we could have resolved this one way or another last night in the manner that it's still mostly to be resolved.

Yeah, maybe I was being a bit harsh. But whatever happened to playing through pain? :)

Wow izulde, after i vouched for you you still dont trust me?

It could have been resolved one way or another last night true :) But I would rather resolve it later with the possibility of getting more seer data from the real seer before they are killed.

Once the fake seer is outed, there is very little reason to keep the real seer alive for them. They might be soon to that point anyways, but I'm willing to let them make that move for us.

I agree. For me personally lying about real life problems is kind of crossing the line. I'm going to trust him in that regard unless and until he gives me a reason to do otherwise.

Yeah, I can see that point. The way it wounded up going is a safer play, but I also wasn't expecting you to have such good data about people, or that Swaggs would be able to clear Thomkal's list even though Thomkal is probably a fake seer. Last night I seriously thought we had lost the game, but we had more safety valves than I anticipated.

We also need to discuss/think about what we're going to do if they let both Thomkal and LSG live through Night 5, leaving us in this limbo state again.

damn, i hate following alant's lead. Especially since there is a chance he got converted since i scanned him.....

I appreciate the vouch and I think it's safe to say that you're a seer of some sort, but whether for Light or Dark, it's not certain.

I will say that I lean more towards you being on the Light, but until I know without a doubt that you are, I can't be honest in including you in the CoT.

In any case, you'll notice I'm not clamoring for your head today like I did in the past days. :)

We wouldn't need to discuss that until Day 6, actually. Because frankly, the baddies are taking a gamble if they let the Light seer live another night. Each night that goes by where they don't kill the Light seer is another night where they risk getting themselves outed.

Its comments like this that make me not be able to fully trust you LSG.

You know that I know what you were hinting at earlier. I know that you know this.

You scanned Izulde last night as good. Izulde vouches for me fully. If you really are the good seer, I don't see why you would follow this line of thinking.

Either way, I honestly don't know which to believe more you or THomkal right now. Its very inconvienant that Thomkal is not here right now, as I would love to grill him.

And to Tyrith, if they let both of them live another night then great. One more day of seer reads from both of them for us to use :)

If we don't have a plan it is certainly something they could do in order to totally screw us. What is the real seer scans a wolf then fake one ALSO scans a wolf? Who do we go with? We can't just let this keep going without thinking about the possible consequences. Being a wolf is all about risks, and with us actually having a CoT now they're going to have to take some more.

I am willing to cross that bridge when we get there. I think today's vote will hopefully tell us more about who is on what side and if they both hand us a wolf, we can use some of that data to determine which is the safer choice (or do a run off between both of the wolfs possibly).

I think right now we have the upper hand, so no reason for us to do anything rash. Since this is FOFC, in football terms its the beginning of the 4th quarter and we have a 14 point lead. We don't need to throw any hail marys, we just need to get a good running game going and force them to try to make the huge play.

Please explain this. You have trust for Sublime, but you have voted for him the past two days. What am I missing?

I don't have trust for sublime. If I said otherwise it was a wording error, I apologize.

That's what I figured. It just seemed odd to me.

I am so ticked. Blade didn't have to die. :mad:

Schmidty, is you could please fill us in on your role now it would be much appreciated.

Catching up now... looks like there were a few pages worth of posts.

It is not certain, but I think that, if he Thomkal were evil, he would have thrown in a bad name so that the group would have a little bit of question. I doubt that he considered that someone with my ability would be in this game, but it is not impossible. For now, I think he is fine.

One thing I asked of you earlier, but after you left..

How sure are you that the message you scanned definitly says Mr.Wednesday and Schmidty are good?

I believe your story, but I don't want to let people into the vouched list unless we are absolutely sure. If you are ok vouching for them then thats fine. I just want to make sure we are sure about them.

I thought about what Brian mentioned: alant and LSG might be evil and for all we know, alan is coaching LSG on what to say. I mean who knows, once blade mentioned that he thought LSG was a seer, they could have used that and ran with it.

Dunno, just kinda thinking out loud.

Here is why Thomkal isn't as certain: He could have seer abilities and know the allegiance of the players he scanned, but could still be on the dark side.

Right now, I doubt that, because I believe he would have put a ringer into his group if he were evil.

I am not Tyrith, but let me say this. It also gives us another day of possibly a false seer read. Hiding one of thier kind among the clear.

I can't say for sure if LSG is bad or not. However I do have plenty of villagers that I do know are good that are backing me. :)

I can't say one way or another about you either right now, however I do think we'll learn alot from today's vote. My hope is that sublime and ntndeacon are on opposite bad guy sides and the bad guys are facing the delimna of what to do.

I think seeing us not finding a fast run away with a bunch of pileons makes me feel pretty good so far that people are in a delimna right now.

I feel pretty good about my vote with ntndeacon who yesterday had alot of people who currently are not vouched for not vote for.

Just for my notes.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am not letting anyone that either seer say is good in the fully trusted circle until we get secondary backing at least. You have seen me asking Swaggs if he feels he can be completely sure or not because that is going to be a big part of whether or not I feel Schmidty and Mr.W can be fully trusted.

Getting the names from THomkal and LSG are still good though, because it gives us a chance to catch them in a trap of lying about someone. Plus we can just disregard the names of the people who the fake seer stated were good when we get to that point.

If they let both seers live another 2-3 days, then we'll have to make that call then, however we'll have 2-3 days more worth of seer scans and in a way kept our seer alive that much longer.

This is correct.

He believes all three are good. That doesn't clear him, by any means, but I think he would have mixed it up a bit unless he was aware of my ability. I am hopeful that, by the PM stating that "he believes," it means all three of you are cleared. I would hope it would say something to the effect that he was not certain if that were the case.

If I understand Swaggs comments correctly, he can only judge the truth of one thing stated that day. So it is possible that a false read could slip through without being detected.

Then to be completely fair, I think at this point we have to keep schmidty and Mr.W out of the cleared circle, but just not put them on the possible lynch list. I would like to clear them fully, however I think its too much of a gamble to do so unless you are sure Swaggs.

I would currently say that Thomkal, Lonestargirl, Schmidty and Mr.Wednesday are all not cleared, but not people I want to see lynched.

Nope. I won't/can't give out more info, partly because of rules in my role, and partly for the sake of the preservation of the town and myself.

I've been throwing out as many hints as I can, but even if the hints are figured out, as far as a traditional role, that's still only half the story. Sorry I can't be more clear as of right now.

I will say that my name is Lafe Eriksdotter, and was just passing through when the Black Riders came. I have decided to stay and help defend the town.

Spleen screwed up badly. He is not Nob. Chief Rum was Nob, as we learned after his death.

Vote Spleen1015

Alan is saying that izulde will back him up about his role, but that doesn't make him for certain. This scenario is pretty much our nightmare case, and I'm not sure we'd be able to unscrew ourselves in time if it were true, so I'm just going to have to let it go for now.

I think the last part gives me enough information to finally figure things out. I've been pretty stupid about this so far. Alright, thanks for cooperating as much as you can schmidty :)

Didn't spleen correct this by saying he ment hob and it was an honest mistake?

It's times like this when I wish blade were still alive, he'd be all over this.

I don't remember if Swaggs said he can scan someone's words once a day or if he can't do it anymore, but I've said several times that I am a good guy and I havent been converted and I'm on the side of light and anything else though about 200 posts. So I fully welcome Swaggs if he still has the ability to check me out next time he gets a chance.

Either way, I am pretty sure stuff that I have said will ring true to enough people. I also think that I'm pushing us in a way that will be the least damaging to us even if we guess wrong at the lynch. I also enjoy seeing the bad guys squirm a bit here in having to decide when exactly to kill the seer. They know which one is which where we don't.

And Tyrnth, i can vouch for both alant and izulde, but for some reason all y'all are having a hard time vouching for me....

Considering that we can't divine motivation through game abilities, I'd be willing to say that "he believes" is the same as "he saw". How else would the game mechanics deal with it? The GM won't ask him what he believes, so there must have been a reason for him to "believe". The only thing that may throw a wrench into this is having someone with the ability to mask their own affiliation, or the affiliation of someone else. Of course this would be a problem for LSG as well as Thomkal.

Ok I can buy this, but I still say to be careful about false seer reads. Keeping our seer alive longer is good, but the false seers visions of good or bad should be taken with a tub of salt.

Yup, definitely a nightmare scenario, I was just thinking out loud, that is all. I tend to think things through without posting them.

Onward...

So just for the record, I want to hear you say that you trust lonestargirl enough that you feel thomkal should die, and if lonestargirl is in fact bad you would be bad also and to lynch you too?

I by no means want us to go that route, but this information will be useful for me to figure out what side you are on when we get to the point of figuring out which of them are lying in a day or three :)

I completely believe your story because of the way things went down last night. Right now I am about 90% certain Thomkal is bad. However, if you, Alan, and Izulde were playing with us, we'd be totally screwed.

Not absolute. In fact, I suppose if one or more in a different faction and he made a fake reveal, he could "believe" that they are good without knowing for certain.

The only problem with letting both seers live till tomorrow is that if they live through the night and both say they've found wolves tomorrow what do we do? For that matter what do we do if Thomkal says he's found a wolf tonight? And what if there is a fix in the works where Thomkal feeds us a bad guy so that we trust him, like Lathum the last game, and spend tomorrow killing LSG? These are legitimate problems we need to be thinking about now, lest we get something like Thomkal popping in 30 minutes to lynch and saying that I'm bad.

Dodgerchick, i would do what alant says..... i promise i am of the light.

For the love of Christ woman, it's T-Y-R-I-T-H, no N! :p

Guys, what is the point of me revealing today if i was bad? I wasn't on the chopping block...The only reason i revealed was because i knew Thomkal was full of crap and i wouldn't to explain why i got so heated last night. If i wasn't a seer i would have just let the game go the way it was heading....

Just to play along with the devil's advocate.. if LSG, Izulde and I were all on the same side and say we were all evil, it would mean we would have 2 seperate seer roles. Even if you cancel out the duplicates such as Lathum, myself and Izulde who are on multiple lists, it still leaves LSG having scanned Blade supposedly and me having information I dropped in hints for Swaggs, plus there is enough other information that I've dropped in hints for Jonathan, Grammaticus and Daddy Torgo that I'm guessing they would support me too.

So for this nightmare scenerio to be true, we would have to have either an 8 person bad guy team or have 1 team with many many seer scans.

Even though its WW, sometimes it really is the simplest scenerio that makes the most sense. I showed you my examples of what I left for Swaggs and Lathum well before any reveals. I left information for Izulde, grammaticus, Jonathan, Daddy Torgo as well which I'm guessing some if not all picked up on.

My interaction with Blade wasn't anything where I felt he was bad, it kept me alive long enough to try to figure out some form of COT. Now that we have it, we need to just carry it from there.

Who cares? Its not our real names anyway. I could be saying for the love of God its L O N E S T A R G I R L, not LSG! It doesn't matter....

What? Are you kidding me? So okay, because I said I wish blade were here I go for a sort of CoT to all of a sudden not so trusted?

Nice.

Actually, with blade gone and the way things went down last night, you probably were going to start taking some heat today in a less extreme fashion than I am/could be. Probably not lynch worthy but there would be some looking. However, that doesn't mean you aren't right and I still believe you're probably the seer.

Seriously - Language.

I am prepared for that. There might just be a small chance that I haven't said everything I know yet :) And if one does feed us a wolf, it doesn't change my feeling on killing the other. I still say we keep them alive until the bad guys do it for us.

Otherwise it would be easy for one bad team to feed us a wolf from the other bad team and then get us to kill our good seer. Too risky. Lets just let the bad guys kill the seer for us.

Guys, we need to lynch Spleen he is lying.

I said earlier that my name was Barliman Butterbur. If you all recall my odd request as to whether or not anyone's name rhymed with Chief Rum's name (Nob), it was because I looked myself up on wikipedia:

Barliman Butterbur is a fictional character from J. R. R. Tolkien's epic fantasy The Lord of the Rings.


Why would my name be correct, Chief's name be correct, and Spleen's name be "Hob" rather than Bob? Spleen felt some heat even though there was none directly placed on him, made an unncecesary fake reveal, and had an "Oh Shit!" moment. Don't let this slide. One of the dark members screwed up and we can't let it go.

You haven't moved any in where I feel you are. You still are in the unvouched for group, and a very possible wolf. I am more interested in your absolute knowledge that Thomkal must be bad and we must lynch him. How do you know this?

I know alot in this game, alot more than I have probably let on, but even I dont know for sure which is good and which isn't. So I am just curious how you know this.

You're right. We probably won't learn alot from this lynch, but its the safest play.

UNVOTE Ntndeacon
Vote Spleen

Apologies about the language. I would edit it, but don't want to violate the rules. :(

With Anxiety's permission, I would like to change that post?

Sheesh woman, I was kidding, loosen up a little will ya? You did see my smiley right? Here's another one so you know I'm kidding :)

And for the record, I am leaning more towards you as being the seer of light so don't get your panties all in a bunch k? ;)

vote spleen


Okay Swaggs, ill bite