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QuikSand 08-12-2019 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3246190)
Deficits shrink under Democratic Presidents.


I think that's basically a talking point attributable to the semi-random fact pattern of memorable history.

-Clinton happened to be in office when a tech bubble generated so much capital gains income that the treasury temporary swelled to actually cover its obligations. Clinton was indeed a fairly moderate Dem, but let's not pretend that the reason the federal deficit shrank was because of "welfare reform" or the like, it was the plastic economy of the moment.

-Bush 43 ended up presiding at a time when the hue and cry for expanded Medicare (especially for prescription drugs) reached a breaking point, and the GOP knew it has a weakness with older voters, so they knuckled under. It wasn't a deep philosophical commitment, it was political laziness and unwillingness to stand up to a strong lobby. They caved, the feds spend a ton more on Medicare now, and that's basically your story of expanding deficits during that era - coupled, admittedly, with the mantra that "deficits don't matter," which to any incumbent is basically scripture.

-Obama got to preside over a massive expansion, independent of his policies, and that's good for revenue. Like it or not, the health care package that they got passed under his watch had a variety of unpopular pay-fors designed to avoid blowing up the deficit... now we'll watch them go by the wayside, for sure, starting with the "Cadillac tax." He inherited TARP and the fallout from the 2008-09 fall-apart, but since a recovery was pretty obviously imminent after that dust settled, he gets credit (in this respect) for just not messing it all up.

-Trump's massive tax cut, and the unbelievable fiction surrounding it, was absurdly irresponsible and contributed to a massive underfunding now and for the next political generation. If all you care about is deficits, then this is the one place you draw the line... it was reckless, politically expedient, and ultimately probably did fairly little for the behaviors we claimed to be targeting. It will take a couple years for, say, the charity community to realize how royally fucked they got in all this. Maybe the same for realtors, too.

Anyway... if all we can look at are a tiny number of data point, we are at great peril to conclude that there's something about party philosophy there. It's an anomaly.

Democrats would prefer to increase spending. Republicans would prefer to reduce revenues. Neither once generally considers the relationship between the two to be important enough to counter these primary instincts. It's a built-in problem for anyone who cares about deficits and fiscal responsibility - the inherently most boring special interest in DC.

QuikSand 08-12-2019 04:08 PM

also ping drunk guy

cuervo72 08-12-2019 04:09 PM

I was mostly out over the weekend; did we cover this?

Man Dies After Being Deported To Iraq From Michigan : NPR

cuervo72 08-12-2019 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3246192)
also ping drunk guy


Enjoying OC, eh?

(Caught a blurb on WAMU this morning)

ISiddiqui 08-12-2019 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3246191)
Democrats would prefer to increase spending. Republicans would prefer to reduce revenues. Neither once generally considers the relationship between the two to be important enough to counter these primary instincts. It's a built-in problem for anyone who cares about deficits and fiscal responsibility - the inherently most boring special interest in DC.


Obama also reduced government spending:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...nment-spending

(the 10 year view shows it)

Mostly by reducing military spending. Though spending was starting to trend up a bit after 2014 (likely due to health care costs).

Generally the recent Republican talk about reducing spending, but they mostly just shift it - to defense spending

Edward64 08-12-2019 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3246182)
You said to look at this post for why it's not racist. ICE has a pretty big history of racism in this country.

Inside the Secret Border Patrol Facebook Group Where Agents Joke About Migrant Deaths and Post Sexist Memes — ProPublica

Under Trump, they hired an analyst from the Center for Immigration Studies. The former acting director hired many people from CIS and even spoke at their events.

They are also run by a white supremacist and rank and file heavily voted in favor of a white supremacist.


And yet ICE is 51-52% Hispanic.

Sure it happens and there are bad apples. But is ICE a cesspool of white supremacists and racists? Easier for me to believe they are acting on unauthorized immigration vs pure racism.

Fact Check: Are Half of All Border Patrol Agents Hispanic?
Quote:

Townhall editor and Fox News contributor Katie Pavlich said in a tweet Wednesday that 52 percent of U.S. Border Patrol agents are Hispanic.

Verdict: True

Pavlich’s figure is in the ballpark. About half of all Border Patrol agents—51 percent—were Hispanic or Latino at the end of fiscal year 2016.

Atocep 08-12-2019 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246198)
And yet ICE is 51-52% Hispanic.

Sure it happens and there are bad apples. But is ICE a cesspool of white supremacists and racists? Easier for me to believe they are acting on unauthorized immigration vs pure racism.

Fact Check: Are Half of All Border Patrol Agents Hispanic?


ICE and Border Patrol are two separate entities. They're sister agencies under the DHS, but those numbers for Border Patrol Agents shouldn't have anything to do with the makeup of ICE.

The last numbers I saw on ICE was about 30% Hispanic.

cuervo72 08-12-2019 06:16 PM

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement - Wikipedia

Quote:

The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is a federal law enforcement agency under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, principally responsible for immigration enforcement, with additional responsibilities in countering transnational crime.[2][3]

ICE's mission is executed through the enforcement of more than 400 federal statutes and focuses on immigration enforcement, preventing terrorism and combating the illegal movement of people and goods.[4][5] ICE has two primary components: Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO).

ICE maintains attachés at major U.S. diplomatic missions overseas. ICE does not patrol American borders; rather, that role is performed by the United States Border Patrol, a unit of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which is a sister agency of ICE.[6][7][8]]

RainMaker 08-12-2019 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3246191)
I think that's basically a talking point attributable to the semi-random fact pattern of memorable history.

-Clinton happened to be in office when a tech bubble generated so much capital gains income that the treasury temporary swelled to actually cover its obligations. Clinton was indeed a fairly moderate Dem, but let's not pretend that the reason the federal deficit shrank was because of "welfare reform" or the like, it was the plastic economy of the moment.

-Bush 43 ended up presiding at a time when the hue and cry for expanded Medicare (especially for prescription drugs) reached a breaking point, and the GOP knew it has a weakness with older voters, so they knuckled under. It wasn't a deep philosophical commitment, it was political laziness and unwillingness to stand up to a strong lobby. They caved, the feds spend a ton more on Medicare now, and that's basically your story of expanding deficits during that era - coupled, admittedly, with the mantra that "deficits don't matter," which to any incumbent is basically scripture.

-Obama got to preside over a massive expansion, independent of his policies, and that's good for revenue. Like it or not, the health care package that they got passed under his watch had a variety of unpopular pay-fors designed to avoid blowing up the deficit... now we'll watch them go by the wayside, for sure, starting with the "Cadillac tax." He inherited TARP and the fallout from the 2008-09 fall-apart, but since a recovery was pretty obviously imminent after that dust settled, he gets credit (in this respect) for just not messing it all up.

-Trump's massive tax cut, and the unbelievable fiction surrounding it, was absurdly irresponsible and contributed to a massive underfunding now and for the next political generation. If all you care about is deficits, then this is the one place you draw the line... it was reckless, politically expedient, and ultimately probably did fairly little for the behaviors we claimed to be targeting. It will take a couple years for, say, the charity community to realize how royally fucked they got in all this. Maybe the same for realtors, too.

Anyway... if all we can look at are a tiny number of data point, we are at great peril to conclude that there's something about party philosophy there. It's an anomaly.

Democrats would prefer to increase spending. Republicans would prefer to reduce revenues. Neither once generally considers the relationship between the two to be important enough to counter these primary instincts. It's a built-in problem for anyone who cares about deficits and fiscal responsibility - the inherently most boring special interest in DC.


Clinton cut spending just like Obama. Reagan, HW, W, and Trump have increased spending. Not sure where the "Democrats only care about spending" comes from. Heck, their party leadership is still touting Pay-Go as the way forward.

Let's not forget W made massive tax cuts and then increased spending. Same with Reagan.

Edward64 08-12-2019 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3246201)
ICE and Border Patrol are two separate entities. They're sister agencies under the DHS, but those numbers for Border Patrol Agents shouldn't have anything to do with the makeup of ICE.

The last numbers I saw on ICE was about 30% Hispanic.


Fair enough.

Below says 21%.

The Latino face of ICE | AL DĂŤA News
Quote:

Justiniano is one of the 4,214 Hispanic officers of ICE, 21.5 percent of the total force of that agency. Latinos are the second-largest "ethnic group in ICE, after US whites (11,673, 59.5 percent), nearly twice as many African-American officers and four times as many as those of Asian descent, according to figures collected by Univisión News.

albionmoonlight 08-12-2019 07:09 PM

There's a bit of "only Nixon could go to China" here, too. Voters think of the GOP as the fiscally responsible party, so they are given more leeway to expand the deficit. Voters think of Dems as the reckless party, so their feet are held to the fire.

NobodyHere 08-12-2019 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3246190)
Deficits shrink under Democratic Presidents.


Generally true but it also helps that congressional Republicans would rather block all legislation rather than give a Democratic president "a win".

Edward64 08-12-2019 07:56 PM

Don't really know how it will end but its either a violent crackdown, China giving some significant concessions, or protesters fading away.

Concessions is unlikely, losing too much face and setting a precedence for next time. Protesters fading away also seems unlikely, the protesters have been pretty successful in maintaining pressure. So some sort of crackdown is my guess.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/12/asia/...hnk/index.html
Quote:

The sudden decision to shutdown the airport came as the city's protest movement entered its 11th week, with no sign of either side backing down.

Earlier on Monday, as crowds began to descend on the airport, Chinese officials called for the authorities to exercise an "iron fist" in tackling "violent crime" in Hong Kong.

"Hong Kong's radical demonstrators have repeatedly attacked police officers with extremely dangerous tools," Yang Guang, a spokesman for the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, told reporters in Beijing.

"They have already constituted serious violent crimes and have begun to show signs of terrorism. This is a gross violation of the rule of law and social order in Hong Kong, which is endangering the lives and safety for Hong Kong citizens."

Use of the term terrorism to describe the Hong Kong protests, even in a somewhat backhanded way, is a major rhetorical shift in how China has described the protests.

In domestic propaganda, there has been a noticeable transition in recent weeks in how the protests are covered. State media reports initially refrained from mentioning the demonstrations, amid heavy censorship, as is usual for anti-government actions anywhere in China. But increasingly reports have moved to emphasize the violent side of the protests -- and sought to paint the protesters as separatists being controlled by the United States and other foreign "black hands."

NobodyHere 08-12-2019 08:01 PM

I'm sure there's good people on both sides.

PilotMan 08-12-2019 08:08 PM

Ever since China took possession of Hong Kong they have been pushing the agreed upon terms for possession of it. They change the rules little by little and take away freedoms that have been in place. Of course it's going to end badly somewhere along the way, but it's completely wrong, completely autocratic authority, completely China. It's like when trump says something outrageous and everyone says, oh he'll never do that, he meant this, but then they totally do it. China does that shit all the time.

Lathum 08-13-2019 07:27 AM

Curt Schilling 'absolutely considering' running for Congress


Quote:

Schilling opened speculation about his political future after an interview Sunday with Armed American Radio’s Mark Walters.

He will fit right in.

BYU 14 08-13-2019 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3246232)


Always room for one more tool in the shed, and he is a big one.

Atocep 08-13-2019 10:04 AM

I wonder why right wing extremist terrorism is up under Trump.

Quote:

The Democrats have lost it.

Crazy Bernie, Sleepy Joe, and the rest of the 2020 Democrats are so out of touch with the American People that they’ve now fully aligned their views with the RADICAL SOCIALIST SQUAD, a group that truly doesn’t want America to succeed.

The Democrats’ constant personal attacks, vicious lies, and hateful commentary about our great country has never had anything to do with me...

Their goal has always been to silence YOU. The idea of you running our country TERRIFIES them.

The 2020 Democratic candidates and the Socialist Squad want to ruin our country and everything we hold sacred. It’s up to YOU to stop them.

There is no better way to stop the Democrats from ruining our country and to Keep America Great, than by contributing to become an Official Trump 2020 Presidential Founder.

There’s never been a better time to give your FIRST ever contribution, and I want to give you one LAST chance to mark your status as an Official Trump 2020 Presidential Founder.

RainMaker 08-13-2019 10:44 AM

Schilling is another Q guy running for office. Shame he doesn't try in Rhode Island.

GrantDawg 08-13-2019 11:28 AM

Enter the conspiracy theory zone: William Barr has said that there is going to be a full investigation of the Epstien suicide, and that his accomplices will be brought to justice. We already know he was buddies with Trump, but there is no way Barr is going to investigate Trump. We do know that Barr has no scruples what so ever, and has no qualms using his position for political purposes. So, when does the Clinton indictment come? How many enemies of Trump get indicted? Will there even be a token Republican?

larrymcg421 08-13-2019 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3246191)
Democrats would prefer to increase spending. Republicans would prefer to reduce revenues. Neither once generally considers the relationship between the two to be important enough to counter these primary instincts. It's a built-in problem for anyone who cares about deficits and fiscal responsibility - the inherently most boring special interest in DC.


If Dems didn't care about that relationship, then why would they constantly push for unpopular tax increase measures and/or oppose tax cuts?

JPhillips 08-13-2019 10:08 PM

Ken Cuccinelli changed the poem on the Statue of Liberty:

Quote:

"give me your tired and your poor who can stand on their own two feet, and who will not become a public charge."

When asked about it text of the original poem later he said that it referred to people coming from Europe.

White nationalism rules everything around me.

QuikSand 08-13-2019 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3246254)
If Dems didn't care about that relationship, then why would they constantly push for unpopular tax increase measures and/or oppose tax cuts?


Look at what "tax increase measures" most Democrats are willing to say they support, in the abstract. It's almost universally "tax on the wealthy" or "roll back the [Republican] tax cuts for the rich" or the like. That polls pretty well, Dems understand that, and when not in crisis time, they stick to the playbook.

When there's an actual crisis (negotiation over the debt limit, most recently) you'd see some bickering over the ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases as part of a budget deal - with the GOP seeking some absurd ratio like 10:1 and the Dems starting at 1:1, and then settling on 3:1 or 5:1. But it is always the Democrats who have to push the issue of revenue increases being part of any solution. Republicans are reliably pro-cut right up until the moment when something of value to virtually anyone gets nicked.

Tax cuts are indeed popular, and I think it's generally a nod to the integrity of the Dems that they don't go for them every time, the way much of the GOP will. If you're reading my comments above as simply an indictment of the Dems, you're missing my point. I judge both parties to be substantially guilty of the fiscal impasse that has relegated "fiscal responsibility" as a back-burner issue, but if there's an apportionment to be had, I'd say the blind adherence to mantra of the GOP to bear the larger burden here.

Chief Rum 08-13-2019 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246282)
Ken Cuccinelli changed the poem on the Statue of Liberty:



When asked about it text of the original poem later he said that it referred to people coming from Europe.

White nationalism rules everything around me.


Was just coming to comment on this. What a crock. Screw them. It's bad enough to put in policies that go against American ideals, but to revise our tradition and hiatory itself?

RainMaker 08-13-2019 11:38 PM

So much for the "it's not about race" argument some here have been saying. The administration is openly saying it is.

Edward64 08-14-2019 05:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246282)
Ken Cuccinelli changed the poem on the Statue of Liberty:

When asked about it text of the original poem later he said that it referred to people coming from Europe.


Pretty weak IMO. Why even change the poem and deal with the uproar. Was the pro-immigration crowd really using this poem to effectively beat up Trump's immigration policies (as if anymore was really needed)? Or was it him thinking he could just slip this in quietly and make himself look good to the boss?

I'm all for greatly increased selective immigration of the highly educated. I also remember when I went through the process there was something I signed that said that I could support myself (F1, H1B).

So evaluation criteria that includes not being a "public charge" (which I think was already policy to a certain degree) to decide on candidacy is okay with me (i.e. its not the only evaluation criteria). However, the intent of the poem is pretty clear and to change it and pick a fight is pretty stupid.

Edward64 08-14-2019 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3246288)
So much for the "it's not about race" argument some here have been saying. The administration is openly saying it is.


I'll go more towards stupid bigotry & prejudice. My guess he would welcome anyone/most that had money regardless of race.

Edward64 08-14-2019 06:28 AM

Don't really know the game he is playing. It would seem that China would see this as a "blink" and therefore this will undercut him in future negotiations.

But maybe Trump is looking at 2020 and doing what he needs to get re-elected.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/trum...thers-say.html
Quote:

In backing off on China tariffs Tuesday, President Donald Trump showed just how much pain the U.S. could tolerate — and China may use that to its advantage, key voices on Wall Street say.

Markets rallied on the announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative office that certain items were being removed from the new tariff list, while duties on others would be delayed until mid-December.

The short-seller Jim Chanos, who tweets under the alter ego “Diogenes,” hinted that Chinese President Xi Jinping may take this as a sign that the U.S. may cave with enough pressure.

“So then tell me why Xi should not continue to wait out The World’s Greatest Negotiator, who keeps ‘dealing’ with himself?” tweeted Chanos, founder and managing Partner of Kynikos Associates.

CU Tiger 08-14-2019 08:18 AM

Jumping back in the thread a bit to the conversation on healthcare costs..

Just read this this morning and it was topical and kind of mind blowing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/09/b...=pocket-newtab

Getting some pop up so i will cut/paste below.

Quote:


A Mexican Hospital, an American Surgeon, and a $5,000 Check (Yes, a Check)

A novel twist on medical tourism to avoid the high cost of U.S. health care saves an employer money and even earns the patient a bonus.
ImageDonna Ferguson, of Ecru, Miss., traveled to a private hospital in Cancún, Mexico, to have her knee replacement in July.
Donna Ferguson, of Ecru, Miss., traveled to a private hospital in Cancún, Mexico, to have her knee replacement in July.CreditCreditRocco Saint-Mleux for Kaiser Health News

By Phil Galewitz

Aug. 9, 2019

Leer en espańol

CANCÚN, Mexico — Donna Ferguson awoke in the resort city of Cancún before sunrise on a sweltering Saturday in July.

She wasn’t headed to the beach. Instead, she walked down a short hallway from her Sheraton hotel and into Galenia Hospital.

A little later that morning, a surgeon, Dr. Thomas Parisi, who had flown in from Wisconsin the day before, stood by Ms. Ferguson’s hospital bed and used a black marker to note which knee needed repair. “I’m ready,” Ms. Ferguson, 56, told him just before being taken to the operating room for her total knee replacement. For this surgery, she would not only receive free care, but would receive a check when she got home.

The hospital costs of the American medical system are so high that it made financial sense for both a highly trained orthopedist from Milwaukee and a patient from Mississippi to leave the country and meet at an upscale private Mexican hospital for the surgery.

Ms. Ferguson gets her health coverage through her husband’s employer, Ashley Furniture Industries. The cost to Ashley was less than half of what a knee replacement in the United States would have been. That’s why its employees and dependents who use this option have no out-of-pocket co-pays or deductibles for the procedure; in fact, they receive a $5,000 payment from the company, and all their travel costs are covered.

Dr. Parisi, who spent less than 24 hours in Cancún, was paid $2,700, or three times what he would have received from Medicare, the largest single payer of hospital costs in the United States. Private insurers often base their reimbursement rates on what Medicare pays.
ImageMs. Ferguson’s surgery was Dr. Thomas Parisi’s first one in Cancún. He spent less than 24 hours there and was paid triple what Medicare would reimburse in the United States.
Ms. Ferguson’s surgery was Dr. Thomas Parisi’s first one in Cancún. He spent less than 24 hours there and was paid triple what Medicare would reimburse in the United States.CreditRocco Saint-Mleux for Kaiser Health News

Ms. Ferguson is one of hundreds of thousands of Americans who seek lower-cost care outside the United States each year, with many going to Caribbean and Central American countries. For many, a key question is whether the facility offers quality care.

In a new twist on medical tourism, a Denver company is tapping into this market. The company, North American Specialty Hospital, known as NASH, has organized treatment for a couple of dozen Americans at Galenia since 2017.

Dr. Parisi, a graduate of the Mayo Clinic, is one of about 40 orthopedic surgeons in the United States who have signed up with NASH, to travel to Cancún on their days off to treat American patients. NASH is betting that having an American surgeon will alleviate concerns some people have about going outside the country, and persuade self-insured American employers to offer this option to their workers to save money and still provide high-quality care. NASH, a for-profit company that charges a fixed amount for each case, is paid by the employer or an intermediary that arranged the treatment.

“It was a big selling point, having an American doctor,” Ms. Ferguson said.

The American surgeons work closely with a Mexican counterpart and local nurses. NASH buys additional malpractice coverage for the American physicians, who could be sued in the United States by patients unhappy with their results.

“In the past, medical tourism has been mostly a blind leap to a country far away, to unknown hospitals and unknown doctors with unknown supplies, to a place without U.S. medical malpractice insurance,” said James Polsfut, the chief executive of NASH. “We are making the experience completely different and removing as much uncertainty as we can.”

Medical tourism has been around for decades but has become more common in the past 20 years as more countries and hospitals around the world market themselves to foreigners.

There are, of course, risks to going outside the country, including the headache of travel and the possibility that the standards of care may be lower than at home. If something goes wrong, patients will be far from family and friends who can help — and it might be more difficult to sue providers in other countries.
Chasing Lower Costs

The high prices charged at American hospitals make it relatively easy to offer surgical bargains in Mexico: In the United States, knee replacement surgery costs an average of about $30,000 — sometimes double or triple that — but at Galenia, it is only $12,000, said Dr. Gabriela Flores Teón, medical director of the facility.

The standard charge for a night in the hospital is $300 at Galenia, Dr. Flores said, compared with $2,000 on average at United States hospitals.

The other big savings is the cost of the medical device — made by a subsidiary of the New Jersey-based Johnson & Johnson — used in Ms. Ferguson’s knee replacement surgery. The very same implant she would have received at home costs $3,500 at Galenia, compared with nearly $8,000 in the United States, Dr. Flores said.

Galenia is accredited by the international affiliation of the Joint Commission, which sets hospital standards in the United States. But to help doctors and patients feel comfortable with surgery here, NASH and Galenia worked to exceed those standards.

That included adding an extra autoclave to sterilize instruments more quickly, using spacesuit-like gowns for doctors to reduce infection risk and having patients start physical therapy just hours after knee- or hip-replacement surgery.

I. Glenn Cohen, a law professor at Harvard and an expert on medical tourism, called the model used by NASH and a few other similar operations a “clever strategy” to attack some of the perceived risks about medical tourism.

“It doesn’t answer all concerns, but I will say it’s a big step forward,” he said. “It’s a very good marketing strategy.”

Still, he added, patients should be concerned with whether the hospital is equipped for all contingencies, the skills of other surgical team members and how their care is handed off when they return home.

Officials at Ashley Furniture, where Ms. Ferguson’s husband, Terry, is a longtime employee, said they had been impressed so far.

“We’ve had an overwhelming positive reaction from employees who have gone,” said Marcus Gagnon, manager of global benefits and health at Ashley, a Wisconsin-based company that has 17,000 employees. Ms. Ferguson was the company’s 10th insured person to go to Cancún.

Ashley also has sent about 140 employees or dependents for treatments at a hospital in Costa Rica, and together the foreign medical facilities have saved the firm $3.2 million in health costs since 2016, he said.

“Even after the incentive payments and travel expenses, we still save about half the cost of paying for care in the United States,” Mr. Gagnon said. “It’s been a nice option — not a magic bullet — but a nice option.”

NASH’s strategy has its skeptics.

“Building a familiar culture in a foreign destination may be appealing to some American consumers, but I do not see it as a sustainable business,” said Irving Stackpole, a health consultant in Rhode Island. “It’s not unusual for people thinking about this to have doctors, family and friends who will see this as a high-risk undertaking.”

Mr. Stackpole said only a limited number of Americans were willing — even with a financial incentive — to travel abroad, because most perceive the care won’t be as good.
Image
Carlos Bauque, a physical therapist, helping Ms. Ferguson at Galenia Hospital. “Even if I had to pay, I would come back here,” she said.CreditRocco Saint-Mleux for Kaiser Health News
‘You Are Nuts for Doing This’

Ms. Ferguson’s knee started causing her trouble two years ago, and last autumn a doctor recommended replacing it. She is on her feet most of the day assembling furniture tool kits at her job at American Furniture Manufacturing in Ecru, Miss. Terry Ferguson mentioned the Cancún option he had heard about at work. The couple pay $300 a month in premiums for family health coverage.

“I had a friend say, ‘You are nuts for doing this,’ but Dr. Parisi trained at Mayo, and you can’t do any better than that,” Ms. Ferguson said before the surgery. Also, having an American doctor meant that if something went wrong, she could file a malpractice suit in the United States, she added.

IndusHealth, Ashley’s medical travel plan administrator, arranged for her to get a physical exam, X-rays and heart tests near her home to make sure she was a good candidate for surgery. It even had her see a dentist to make sure she didn’t have an infection that could complicate her recovery. Dr. Parisi reviewed some of those records before Ms. Ferguson headed to Cancún.

The company also coordinated her medical care and made travel arrangements, including obtaining passports, airline tickets, hotel and meals for the couple.

In Mexico, the day before surgery, Ms. Ferguson had more X-rays and had her blood drawn. After lunch, the couple met with Noemi Osorio, a nurse, who reviewed Ms. Ferguson’s schedule and showed her the physical therapy facilities. Later, they met Dr. Parisi and the rest of the medical team.

“My job is pretty easy,” Dr. Parisi told her. “How you do over the next five or 10 years depends on how well you work with the physical therapy.”

The surgery began at 8:20 the next morning. Dr. Daniel Rios, an orthopedic surgeon who practices full time in Cancún, worked with Dr. Parisi. Dr. Rios, who had done a fellowship at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, checked on Ms. Ferguson for several days after the operation.

By 9:30 a.m., the operation was over, and at 11 a.m. she left the recovery area. Dr. Parisi checked on her there. “Everything went great,” he told her before heading to the airport for his 2:30 flight home.

Dr. Parisi said that the lack of English proficiency among some surgical staff members created “momentary delays,” but that the bilingual surgical assistant helped.

A little more than three hours after the surgery, Ms. Ferguson was in her hospital room, and a physical therapist came and helped her out of bed. Using a walker, she gingerly took some steps to test her new knee. By the next morning, she was on crutches walking the hallway and was discharged before noon. She stayed at her hotel 10 additional days while having physical therapy twice a day at the hospital.

“It’s been a great experience,” she said two days after the surgery. “Even if I had to pay, I would come back here because it’s just a different level of care — they treat you like family.”

This article was produced in collaboration with Kaiser Health News, an editorially independent program of the Kaiser Family Foundation. The author is a reporter for Kaiser Health News.

A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 11, 2019, Section BU, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Your Surgery in Mexico May Include a $5,000 Check. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe




To me, this is when you know free market is dead in the healthcare world. When provider and customer can agree to a price and can travel to another country and rent facilities and still pay less and make more.

I am sure most will point to the potential for lawsuit as a major cost driver.
I wonder how many Americans would gladly pay 75% less if they waived their right to sue for errors?

Edward64 08-14-2019 08:57 AM

I wouldn't waive my right to sue for errors but love this idea. Anything to make US Healthcare more efficient and transparent. I've heard similar for other countries (e.g. Thailand) but first time I've read the patient gets a check.

The article said additional/extra malpractice insurance is bought for the Dr but it may be harder for a patient to sue so there is that. There will be inevitable lawsuits coming out of this sooner or later.


EDIT: Oh, we should fix the damn college costs while we are at it also

PilotMan 08-14-2019 11:31 AM

You realize that the system has failed if this is a good idea, or proposed solution on any level. How can you argue to keep the current insurance run industry while proposing going outside if it in order to achieve the ends? It's a workaround to a glaring problem. Fix the problem, don't exacerbate it.

Edward64 08-14-2019 12:41 PM

I think there is near consensus on this board that healthcare is screwed up and everyone wants to see it re-worked. From single-payer, to single-payer w/private combo; more transparency; reduce the middle-man; more interstate providers, exchanges etc. Across the Payer, Provider & Pharma markets etc.

With that all said, to get it re-worked (e.g. to fix the problem) where majority are happy will take time (e.g. even the Dems can't agree), a lot of time and its no sure thing. If the Dems can win the Presidency, House & Senate, maybe it'll happen but Senate is unlikely. So I'll settle for the low hanging fruit for now.

Yup, said state of affairs.

Chief Rum 08-14-2019 01:13 PM

We're getting fucked in healthcare, no two ways about it. The only thing that surprises me about CU's article was the innovative way the arrangement company is mitigating the concerns American patients may have. Everything else sounds just like what my friend and his in laws do. His in laws are from Mexico and they drive to TJ to do any major medical or dental work.

RainMaker 08-14-2019 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246297)
Don't really know the game he is playing. It would seem that China would see this as a "blink" and therefore this will undercut him in future negotiations.

But maybe Trump is looking at 2020 and doing what he needs to get re-elected.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/trum...thers-say.html


I was informed that we don't pay for the tariffs.

Arles 08-14-2019 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3246205)
Clinton cut spending just like Obama. Reagan, HW, W, and Trump have increased spending. Not sure where the "Democrats only care about spending" comes from. Heck, their party leadership is still touting Pay-Go as the way forward.

Let's not forget W made massive tax cuts and then increased spending. Same with Reagan.

The best setup for deficit reduction is a democrat president and a republican congress. Republicans have shown they are extremely dedicated to blocking anything a democrat wants and there's usually massive gridlock in this setup. Gridlock = good for reducing spending.

Republican president and Democrat congress = more deals and higher spending. Democrats are more willing to give a republican tax cuts/his wishes if they can avoid the veto on some of their projects.

Democrats president and Dem congress = pretty high spending levels, but also higher taxes on everyone to slightly balance it (but still not great for the deficit). Usually not the best business environment short term, but there could be long term benefits if spending isn't completely out of control.

Republican president and Rep congress = tax cuts and slightly higher spending levels (esp on defense). Prob the worst combo for the deficit - but you could argue that decreasing tax revenue is better for businesses and the economy (atleast in the short term).

Thomkal 08-14-2019 03:14 PM

Sorry if this has been mentioned already, but looks like we might be able to put the conspiracy theories over Epstein's death to rest:


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/n...89tion=topNews

GrantDawg 08-14-2019 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3246324)
Sorry if this has been mentioned already, but looks like we might be able to put the conspiracy theories over Epstein's death to rest:


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/n...89tion=topNews





But how did three fired afford to immediately move into apartments at Trump tower? (jk)

JPhillips 08-14-2019 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246297)
Don't really know the game he is playing. It would seem that China would see this as a "blink" and therefore this will undercut him in future negotiations.


Trump bluffs and backs down. That's his M.O. and everybody around the globe knows it.

Edward64 08-14-2019 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246343)
Trump bluffs and backs down. That's his M.O. and everybody around the globe knows it.


Except for Canada, Mexico & Guatemala apparently.

Thomkal 08-14-2019 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3246336)
But how did three fired afford to immediately move into apartments at Trump tower? (jk)



Severance pay for a job well done?

Lathum 08-14-2019 07:07 PM

It is an amazing coincidence that the Hong Kong situation has been going on for a while, yet on the day Trump delays tariffs he starts tweeting about it and how he wants to give them a chance to remedy it.

miami_fan 08-14-2019 08:22 PM

Can someone interpret what Steve King meant when he said this?

Quote:

What if we went back through all the family trees and just pulled those people out that were products of rape and incest? Would there be any population of the world left if we did that?" he said at the event in Urbandale, Iowa.

RainMaker 08-14-2019 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3246362)
Can someone interpret what Steve King meant when he said this?


Rape babies aren't bad and necessary to the survival of humans.

DavidCorperial 08-14-2019 09:44 PM

Well, I mean, like everyone on the planet is descended from Genghis Khan, so yeah?

JPhillips 08-14-2019 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246347)
Except for Canada, Mexico & Guatemala apparently.


?

He's certainly backed down from Mexico and Canada threats. How many times was he going to end Nafta or impose tariffs or make Mexico pay for it when he then didn't? I'm not sure the threat to Guatemala.

Edward64 08-15-2019 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246370)
?

He's certainly backed down from Mexico and Canada threats. How many times was he going to end Nafta or impose tariffs or make Mexico pay for it when he then didn't? I'm not sure the threat to Guatemala.


NAFTA 2.0/USMCA was a win for Trump. Was it everything he wanted, no. Did NAFTA need updating/modernizing, yes. Should Trump have approached it better, absolutely.

I think we can differ on how much of a win but Trump got a lot of what he wanted and not sure what he conceded other than some status-quo stuff (e.g. Canada dispute process to stay in place).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...eres-whats-it/

Notwithstanding "paying for the Wall", Mexico and Guatemala has been bullied on unauthorized immigration.

stevew 08-15-2019 03:39 PM

Imagine the furor if Israeli lawmakers were denied entry to the US

Thomkal 08-15-2019 04:36 PM

So Trump's latest flight of fancy-he wants the US to buy Greenland-which of course is under the control of Denmark and is self-ruled:


Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland - WSJ

stevew 08-15-2019 04:50 PM

I’m listening

JPhillips 08-15-2019 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246377)
NAFTA 2.0/USMCA was a win for Trump. Was it everything he wanted, no. Did NAFTA need updating/modernizing, yes. Should Trump have approached it better, absolutely.

I think we can differ on how much of a win but Trump got a lot of what he wanted and not sure what he conceded other than some status-quo stuff (e.g. Canada dispute process to stay in place).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...eres-whats-it/

Notwithstanding "paying for the Wall", Mexico and Guatemala has been bullied on unauthorized immigration.


It hasn't been passed and isn't in effect. He must have threatened half a dozen times to walk and kill NAFTA, but never did. Everybody knows he's all bluster. China, short of getting the US to cave on a lot of things, has no reason not to wait until after the election.

Edward64 08-15-2019 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246441)
It hasn't been passed and isn't in effect. He must have threatened half a dozen times to walk and kill NAFTA, but never did. Everybody knows he's all bluster. China, short of getting the US to cave on a lot of things, has no reason not to wait until after the election.


It's true it has not passed but he's negotiated it and what's put in front of Congress is advantageous to the US. I don't disagree he is a lot of bluster but he has won some stuff (mostly through threats, intimidation).

I do think China will wait till the election and see what comes of it. The only reason why China would negotiate is if their down-trending economy gets out of hand and they decide they can't wait.

Edward64 08-15-2019 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3246434)
So Trump's latest flight of fancy-he wants the US to buy Greenland-which of course is under the control of Denmark and is self-ruled:

Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland - WSJ


Can't read wsj but found this article. Pretty funny. Denmark has GDP of $325B so maybe he can make an offer they can't refuse.

If he wants to have a 51st state, sounds like PR is the best candidate.

WSJ: Trump Wants To Buy Greenland | Talking Points Memo
Quote:

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Trump is eyeing Greenland as a potential new addition to the U.S.

Two unnamed sources told the Journal that the President has gone as far as asking his White House counsel about buying the island (an autonomous nation belonging to Denmark), though it’s unknown how seriously he plans on pursuing the idea.

As one of the paper’s sources pointed out, since Trump hasn’t floated the idea at one of his campaign rallies yet, “he probably isn’t seriously considering it,” in the Journal’s words.

Trump reportedly wants both Greenland’s natural resources and the legacy of adding a new state to the union.


JPhillips 08-15-2019 06:50 PM

I drove to Ohio and back this week and heard about fifteen minutes of Rush Limbaugh somewhere in Pennsyltucky. He sounded like a full-on Qanon believer. I guess Alex Jones moved the market and Rush followed the money.

RainMaker 08-15-2019 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246455)
I drove to Ohio and back this week and heard about fifteen minutes of Rush Limbaugh somewhere in Pennsyltucky. He sounded like a full-on Qanon believer. I guess Alex Jones moved the market and Rush followed the money.


It's an interesting shift. But like you said, when Alex Jones and such got credibility in the conservative scene, a lot of people had to shift farther into crazy town to keep up. You saw Hannitty turn to Seth Rich conspiracies. Tucker and Ingraham went from boring conservatives to full-on white supremacists.

albionmoonlight 08-16-2019 08:10 AM

So I think that Trump's strategy of blaming the Fed for any economic downturn is politically smart.

First, I of course agree with the long-standing bipartisan tradition of not pulling the Fed into the political fray. It is good for the long-term health and stability of the economy for the Fed to be able to operate as independently as possible. But we are not talking about the long term health and stability of the economy; we are talking about short term political gain.

Second, this manages to dovetail nicely with Trump's broader culture-war theme. The "Fed" are a bunch of egghead economists who are all over-educated and wear suits to work and think that they know better than you. "Real Americans" are out there trying to work a job, and these "coastal elites" are making it harder for them to do it.

Third, this is a complex issue that can be easily misrepresented in a simple way. 99%+ of the people don't know what the Federal Funds Rate or the Discount Rate are or what they do. But they can digest the idea that Trump says that lower is better and higher is worse and these liberal economists (because why not?) are not making it lower.

Fourth, the Fed can't defend itself. Even if Trump does not care about Fed independence, the Fed does. So unlike going after other politicians who will strike back, this is like hitting an opponent with both hands tied behind its back. Sure, you will get some media folks and retired Fed members going on dusty Sunday morning talk shows that nobody watches and defending the Fed, but that's not going to move the needle much, I think.

Overall, I think that Presidents get too much credit when the economy is good and gas prices are low and too much blame when the economy is bad and gas prices are high. And if the economy does go into recession, there might be nothing he can do to deflect the blame. But I think that he's managed to find a pretty good foil in the Fed.

Edit--I just thought of another reason. Attacking the Fed also gets you the support of the Ron Paul types who dislike central banking in general (regardless of what it is doing at any one point).

JPhillips 08-16-2019 08:50 AM

The latest Fox News poll has Trump under 40% against any of the top Dems. If the economy falters it won't matter what he says or who he blames, he'll be finished.

Lathum 08-16-2019 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246496)
The latest Fox News poll has Trump under 40% against any of the top Dems. If the economy falters it won't matter what he says or who he blames, he'll be finished.


I wonder if FOX news cooks the polls to make it look like Trump is far behind to rally support, donations, etc....

JPhillips 08-16-2019 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3246497)
I wonder if FOX news cooks the polls to make it look like Trump is far behind to rally support, donations, etc....


Nah. Their polling unit is solid. They'll occasionally ask goofy questions, but their methods are good and honest. They aren't Rasmussen.

albionmoonlight 08-16-2019 11:16 AM

Can you imagine being so pathologically insecure that you need your press office to get out ahead of any story implying that you might have apologized for a mistake.


molson 08-16-2019 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3246434)
So Trump's latest flight of fancy-he wants the US to buy Greenland-which of course is under the control of Denmark and is self-ruled:

Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland - WSJ


This is maybe the closest we'll get to Trump acknowledging climate change. I mean, Greenland will be a gold mine when the ice is gone. This would be a solid move in some kind of political text sim.

Edward64 08-16-2019 12:32 PM

What he will do with the info is TBD but its a good sign Trump reached out. Probably will include Trump berating Fed to reduce rates by more than 25 basis points next time around.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/trum...t-plunged.html
Quote:

President Donald Trump held a conference call with the CEOs of the three biggest U.S. banks as the stock market tanked Wednesday.

Trump held the call with J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and Citigroup’s Michael Corbat, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The Dow plunged 800 points, or 3%, in its worst day of the year on Wednesday amid a recession warning from the bond market.

The president asked the three men to give him a read on the health of the U.S. consumer, according to one of the people. The executives responded that the consumer is doing well, but that they could be doing even better if issues including the China-U.S. trade war were resolved, this person said.

The CEOs also told Trump that the trade dispute is damaging the outlook for capital spending by corporations, according to another person with knowledge of the discussions. The president was receptive to the notion that uncertainty over trade is hurting corporate confidence, this person said.
:
:
They also talked about the Federal Reserve and the global economic slowdown that has central banks around the world moving to ease monetary conditions, this person said. One opinion batted around during the call: A 25 basis point cut by the Fed won’t likely change capital flows in the markets.

The call, which lasted about 20 minutes, happened after the CEOs concluded a previously-scheduled meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington. Trump wanted to speak to the three executives, the men were informed, and he called in from his property in New Jersey. Bloomberg first reported on the conference call.

GrantDawg 08-16-2019 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3246514)
This is maybe the closest we'll get to Trump acknowledging climate change. I mean, Greenland will be a gold mine when the ice is gone. This would be a solid move in some kind of political text sim.





Now Denmark has offered to buy the United States. I say if they have $10, sell, baby!

Arles 08-16-2019 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3246487)
So I think that Trump's strategy of blaming the Fed for any economic downturn is politically smart.

First, I of course agree with the long-standing bipartisan tradition of not pulling the Fed into the political fray. It is good for the long-term health and stability of the economy for the Fed to be able to operate as independently as possible. But we are not talking about the long term health and stability of the economy; we are talking about short term political gain.

Second, this manages to dovetail nicely with Trump's broader culture-war theme. The "Fed" are a bunch of egghead economists who are all over-educated and wear suits to work and think that they know better than you. "Real Americans" are out there trying to work a job, and these "coastal elites" are making it harder for them to do it.

Third, this is a complex issue that can be easily misrepresented in a simple way. 99%+ of the people don't know what the Federal Funds Rate or the Discount Rate are or what they do. But they can digest the idea that Trump says that lower is better and higher is worse and these liberal economists (because why not?) are not making it lower.

Fourth, the Fed can't defend itself. Even if Trump does not care about Fed independence, the Fed does. So unlike going after other politicians who will strike back, this is like hitting an opponent with both hands tied behind its back. Sure, you will get some media folks and retired Fed members going on dusty Sunday morning talk shows that nobody watches and defending the Fed, but that's not going to move the needle much, I think.

Overall, I think that Presidents get too much credit when the economy is good and gas prices are low and too much blame when the economy is bad and gas prices are high. And if the economy does go into recession, there might be nothing he can do to deflect the blame. But I think that he's managed to find a pretty good foil in the Fed.

Edit--I just thought of another reason. Attacking the Fed also gets you the support of the Ron Paul types who dislike central banking in general (regardless of what it is doing at any one point).

Agree 100%. It's shady business by Trump, but the strategy makes sense from his end. It's goes with his "scorched earth as long as I benefit" outlook on life.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246496)
The latest Fox News poll has Trump under 40% against any of the top Dems. If the economy falters it won't matter what he says or who he blames, he'll be finished.

I hope this is right, but my fear is that is just because people know they don't like Trump - but haven't had a full out Trump press on the democrats yet. Remember, Clinton had a 48-36 lead over Trump in July of 2015. Heck, even Sanders was up 45-37 a year before the election. Trump is like a cockroach under the fridge that keeps coming back - even when you think he should be dead.

JPhillips 08-16-2019 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3246547)

I hope this is right, but my fear is that is just because people know they don't like Trump - but haven't had a full out Trump press on the democrats yet. Remember, Clinton had a 48-36 lead over Trump in July of 2015. Heck, even Sanders was up 45-37 a year before the election. Trump is like a cockroach under the fridge that keeps coming back - even when you think he should be dead.


I think you have to consider the incumbent, with a good economy the favorite, but Trump is clearly unpopular and seems to be surviving largely due to a good economy. If the economy falters, I don't know what he will have to win with.

Unlike in 2016, an incumbent election is historically less about the opposition candidate and more of a referendum on the incumbent. This isn't a choice between A and B, particularly a B who was trying for her party's third term.
The election is basically, do you want four more years of Trump?

That being said, a ton of people will vote for him. Enthusiasm right now is at or above levels in November of 2012 and 2016. His absolute floor is probably something like 50-60 million votes, and that would likely be in a crushing defeat.

JPhillips 08-16-2019 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3246545)
Now Denmark has offered to buy the United States. I say if they have $10, sell, baby!


Everything has a price.

Arles 08-16-2019 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246549)
I think you have to consider the incumbent, with a good economy the favorite, but Trump is clearly unpopular and seems to be surviving largely due to a good economy. If the economy falters, I don't know what he will have to win with.

I think it will come down to a combination of how motivated the left is to vote for their candidate, as well as what negatives does that candidate have that can exploited by Trump's fear mongering. My gut feeling right now is that Trump will lose, but I wouldn't bet too much on that at this point.

Lathum 08-16-2019 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246525)
What he will do with the info is TBD but its a good sign Trump reached out. Probably will include Trump berating Fed to reduce rates by more than 25 basis points next time around.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/trum...t-plunged.html


My brother in law is 2 steps from the CEO of one of these companies. I just wrote him and asked him about it. Said would have been amazing to be a fly on the wall.

PilotMan 08-16-2019 09:52 PM

hxxps://theconcourse.deadspin.com/look-at-this-weird-thing-donald-trump-just-belched-up-1837315160


This is a great piece about the mindset of the idiot in chief.

Chief Rum 08-17-2019 03:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3246448)
If he wants to have a 51st state, sounds like PR is the best candidate.


Too many brown people.

Flasch186 08-17-2019 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246550)
Everything has a price.


So they're willing to talk.

GrantDawg 08-17-2019 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246549)
I think you have to consider the incumbent, with a good economy the favorite, but Trump is clearly unpopular and seems to be surviving largely due to a good economy. If the economy falters, I don't know what he will have to win with.

Unlike in 2016, an incumbent election is historically less about the opposition candidate and more of a referendum on the incumbent. This isn't a choice between A and B, particularly a B who was trying for her party's third term.
The election is basically, do you want four more years of Trump?

That being said, a ton of people will vote for him. Enthusiasm right now is at or above levels in November of 2012 and 2016. His absolute floor is probably something like 50-60 million votes, and that would likely be in a crushing defeat.





I will throw in on more troubling polling. Pod Saves America just did some extensive polling in Wisconsin. Their thought was that, of the rust belt states, Wisconsin was going to be the hardest to flip. If Wisconsin goes Democrat, then more than likely so does Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Trump has no chance of winning.



Their polls show Trump's approval at 48%. That is well above the national average, and is exactly the approval rating of Obama when he won the state in 2012. It looks like there needs to be a good size shift still to get Rust-Belt wall back on the democratic reservation. You would think what Trump was done to the dairy farmers, and the broken promises to the car manufacturers would be enough. Somehow, for Wisconsin it still all about immigration. They have totally bought the bogey-man without seeing the real one pulling the strings.

JPhillips 08-17-2019 08:24 AM

I'll just point out that that number in Wisconsin doesn't match some other polling, but the basic idea that the election isn't a sure thing I certainly agree with.

lungs 08-17-2019 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3246630)
I will throw in on more troubling polling. Pod Saves America just did some extensive polling in Wisconsin. Their thought was that, of the rust belt states, Wisconsin was going to be the hardest to flip. If Wisconsin goes Democrat, then more than likely so does Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Trump has no chance of winning.



Their polls show Trump's approval at 48%. That is well above the national average, and is exactly the approval rating of Obama when he won the state in 2012. It looks like there needs to be a good size shift still to get Rust-Belt wall back on the democratic reservation. You would think what Trump was done to the dairy farmers, and the broken promises to the car manufacturers would be enough. Somehow, for Wisconsin it still all about immigration. They have totally bought the bogey-man without seeing the real one pulling the strings.


A few things....

Trump hasn't hurt dairy farmers specifically all that much. Things were going to hell at the end of Obama's term. Some people want to come out and blame Trump for the end of my dairy farm but it's not the case at all. And I'm pretty rabidly anti-Trump. Dairy has made some inroads to China but the trade war is all about the soybeans in terms of agriculture.

I've said it a few times here, perhaps in different threads, but Wisconsin will flip blue if Milwaukee turns out to vote. Trump only got a few thousand more votes than Romney did in Wisconsin. Get somebody that excites Milwaukee (and Detroit for Michigan), and Wisconsin flips blue. I'm not buying at all that Wisconsin will be tough to flip, especially after voting out Scott Walker and re-electing Tammy Baldwin in a landslide during a mid-term election.

lungs 08-17-2019 09:14 AM

Dola

Also watch Iowa. The trade war with China perhaps didn't move the needle much but I've seen some pretty significant erosion of support (anecdotally) based on his ethanol policy of granting waivers to refineries from need to use ethanol. Not that these people will flip to the Democrat (God, Guns, Gays still reverberates) but perhaps enough will cast a protest vote or skip it.

SackAttack 08-17-2019 03:12 PM

The other thing about Wisconsin is that the extent to which it's "flippable" is the extent to which the latent Democratic base in Dane County (and to a some what lesser extent, Milwaukee County) show up.

This is a state that elected the first openly lesbian member to the United States Senate, after all. It's not a bastion of conservatism or even Trumpism.

What it is is a state where the GOP has had ten years to rig the rules in their favor because Democrats didn't bother to show up in 2010 and paid the political price for it.

I'm not saying it's a guaranteed flip. I AM saying Democrats were motivated enough to turn out despite the procedural roadblocks intended to smooth the way for Republican voters (and put roadblocks in the way of certain Democratic constituencies) to help Tony Evers defeat Scott Walker.

It can be done. It's less about whether rural farmers in northwest Wisconsin are still hugging Trump and more about whether the Democratic base in southern Wisconsin show up in the numbers they did in 2018.

Galaril 08-19-2019 12:32 PM

I went thru an executive briefing at the company I am at which is a large global tech company. We are seeing some serious business slowdown. Our first quarter was very bad and the second quarter is not any better. The factors causing this are:

-China tariffs affecting our customers in China
-Strong dollar being exchanged back to the Yen as we are a Japanese corp
-Big trade war going on between Japan and Korea
-Europe-Brexit impact uncertainty and Germany economy cooling off.

The outcome is lower payout on bonus to all employees, upcoming layoffs, hiring freeze, travel freeze except for customer focused travel. We also are not backfilling any future jobs if people leave like myself as I just resigned to pursue a new job. Overall, I can attest that the global economy is a mess right now and things are looking ominous.

RainMaker 08-19-2019 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 3246638)
Dola

Also watch Iowa. The trade war with China perhaps didn't move the needle much but I've seen some pretty significant erosion of support (anecdotally) based on his ethanol policy of granting waivers to refineries from need to use ethanol. Not that these people will flip to the Democrat (God, Guns, Gays still reverberates) but perhaps enough will cast a protest vote or skip it.


I still think he could shit in their mouth and they'd beg for more.

JPhillips 08-19-2019 05:29 PM

Two Trump voters, one cup?

Edward64 08-19-2019 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3246792)
-Big trade war going on between Japan and Korea


Didn't know about Japan & Korea. Article doesn't say $ impact so not sure how big-big it is.

The South Korea and Japan trade war, explained - Vox
Quote:

Last month, Japan announced it would tighten control over three chemicals — fluorinated polyamides, photoresists, and hydrogen fluoride — that are crucial to producing semiconductors in Korea. Under new regulations, Japanese companies would need a license for each chemical to import them to South Korea, and the process could take up to 90 days.

Semiconductors, a key material installed in most electronic devices, have long been Korea’s top export item, and a delay in their productions could pose a significant threat to its economy.

Japan claimed it was setting such restrictions because it believed South Korea was leaking sensitive information to North Korea, although they did not provide details. After South Korea vehemently denied the accusations, Japan slapped down another trade restriction: removing South Korea from its “white list,” an index of trusted trade partners. This would lead to even more delays in exports of items like auto parts and household electronics to South Korea.
:
:
The most obvious concern is the threat a trade war poses to the global tech supply chain by delaying exports to Korea, says senior director of the Korea Economic Institute Troy Stangarone.

That’s especially because South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix provide 60 percent of the world’s DRAM memory chips, which are used in many electronics we use every day. A shortage could affect everything from Apple iPhones to Dell laptops and potentially slow down an already cooling global economy.

RainMaker 08-19-2019 08:26 PM


QuikSand 08-19-2019 08:34 PM

Wow. So. Much. Winning.

Lathum 08-19-2019 08:49 PM

The sad thing is they will still vote for him

Atocep 08-19-2019 09:11 PM

I guess this is what happens when you give someone that's filed for bankruptcy protection 6 times the keys to the economy.

I'm sure this is just more of the media trying to start a recession though.

albionmoonlight 08-20-2019 07:07 AM

For years, we had the whole "Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot even though things are going really well. I wonder how he will handle an actual problem" thing.

I think that we are about to see it, and a lot of people are going to suffer because of it, and that's a shame. I want Trump to lose re-election, but I don't want it on the backs of innocent workers.

Economic cycles are complicated and mostly out of a President's control (otherwise we'd never have downturns). But I do think that good stewardship can lessen the effects of downturns. We are, I am afraid, not about to see good stewardship.

JPhillips 08-20-2019 07:48 AM

Part of the problem is that we're already running a trillion-dollar deficit and if there's a recession and Trump loses, the GOP will turn into the biggest deficit hawks imaginable.

QuikSand 08-20-2019 02:16 PM

it truly is a thankless gig...

Daniel Dale on Twitter: "I might retire from fact-checking Trump's claim that the trade deficit with China is $500 billion. Just trust that he's still saying it and that it continues to not be true."

JPhillips 08-20-2019 04:24 PM

Trump's beginning for his middle school essay on Kashmir:

Quote:

“Kashmir is a very complicated place. You have the Hindus, and you have the Muslims, and I wouldn’t say they get along so great. And that’s what you have right now.”

PilotMan 08-20-2019 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3246923)
Trump's beginning for his middle school essay on Kashmir:



He really speaks clearly, speaks his mind, and tells it like it is!

Thomkal 08-20-2019 07:56 PM

He really was serious about buying Greenland:


Denmark is a very special country with incredible people, but based on Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s comments, that she would have no interest in discussing the purchase of Greenland, I will be postponing our meeting scheduled in two weeks for another time....


The Prime Minister was able to save a great deal of expense and effort for both the United States and Denmark by being so direct. I thank her for that and look forward to rescheduling sometime in the future!

NobodyHere 08-20-2019 08:34 PM

Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?

Thomkal 08-20-2019 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3246950)
Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?



Well none of course with his own money-who knows how he'll propose spending America's money-a Greenland tax?

RainMaker 08-20-2019 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3246950)
Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?


They've made it clear it's not for sale. The residents of Greenland do not want it. And islands being sold is outdated with the end of colonialism and slavery.

And as an American, putting one of the worst real estate businessman in the history of the world in charge of this kind of deal would be insanity.

Imagine Japan cancelling a meeting because we refuse to sell them Hawaii.

Edward64 08-20-2019 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3246950)
Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?


I like the idea of the US buying more land but seems like Haiti would be much more accommodating than Greenland/Denmark.

Don't know what Trump's play is here but my guess is he's playing with the press and distracting them from other more important news.

JPhillips 08-20-2019 09:24 PM

JFC

We aren't buying other countries and we shouldn't act like asking is normal.

larrymcg421 08-20-2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3246950)
Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?


Stop.

Ben E Lou 08-21-2019 06:48 AM

Both sides, put your partisan feelings aside for a moment and imagine you went into a coma 10 years ago and woke up today to this headline:


"President Donald Trump Indefinitely Postpones Scheduled Meeting With Denmark's Prime Minister Because She Refused To Discuss Selling Greenland To U.S."

PilotMan 08-21-2019 07:00 AM

It really is Idiocracy in our time.

Edward64 08-21-2019 07:41 AM

Fun distraction from talks of recession.

JPhillips 08-21-2019 08:47 AM

Speaking of recession, apparently Mulvaney told a group of big GOP donors that if there is a recession it will be moderate and short.

There's clearly a lot of worry all around.

JPhillips 08-21-2019 09:52 AM

dola

This is plausible. What if Trump can't see?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...ust-blind.html


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