Thankfully my two coworkers (father and son) are both very ill with Covid like symptoms, but have tested negative for Covid. One of the other guys might also have what they have.

Also has not taken a tes... tested negative?

SI

I do also. There have been a few stretches where I had a headache, etc...and I wonder.

Hay, guys! It turns out the FDA approval wasn't what was really holding people back from getting the shot. That was definitely unexpected /s

Link: hxxps://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-august-30-2021 (hxxp'd because it keeps screwing up the formatting)



SI

Mid-April is when they temporarily halted use of J&J based on 6 adverse cases, right? That appears to be right about peak and then a precipitous decline since.

I think there's something there. But there was always going to be a steep fall off whenever we got past the point where "people who wanted the vaccine" met "supply of vaccine". Eventually, we were going to hit the 30% of "it's just the flu, bro" crowd.

SI

I do agree we were always going to reach a tipping point, but it appears the J&J decision made some "yes" people delay getting it, has kept others from getting it even today, and pushed others into the "no way, bro" category.

That's what it looks like to me. It's obviously hard to say with any sort of confidence, but that drop off was quick and deep right about the same time as the decision.

I'm pleasantly surprised there's almost a million people getting a shot every day. There's some booster people on there, but that's a lot of people finally coming around, maybe by necessity for work, maybe because something finally hit them, like the impact of the death of a loved one.

Edit: early to mid-april was also the time in the U.S. that anyone who wanted to be fully vaccinated could have been so. That was a pretty significant threshold. If there was a chart of people I knew getting the vaccine, it would have peaked around then and them immediately dropped to zero or near-zero.

So catering to the anti-vaxxers is the reason we haven't gotten an under 12 EUA yet.

I sometimes wish that some aspect of our local, state, and federal governments dedicated itself--even briefly--to some goal other than trying not to hurt MAGA feelings.



Source: CDC/IDSA COVID-19 Clinician Call: Update on COVID-19 in the Pediatric Population - Hosted in partnership with the AAP

dola: Take all the time you need to give it full approval. But by withholding the EUA for political reasons, you are depriving parents of the choice to give their kids something that might save their lives.

Trust us to do our own risk/reward calculus.

That reads like it was written by an anti-vaxxer troll.

Hmmm. I think that it is probably their actual thought process.

But I guess if you are this guy, and you are frustrated at how your colleagues are (in your opinion) slow rolling the process, you might choose to strategically give this answer, knowing that it will lead to people like me demanding action.

I get what they are saying though. It's paranoia paralysis because of how well a disinformation campaign works.

I kinda think we'll see the same thing with the next elections. How many elections officials were used to just doing things the old way, not really thinking about or caring how or when the votes were finalized because they weren't used to or ready for the immediate deconstruction and alternate narrative attached to every single vote release. Now, suddenly it's, "Well, hell, we can't just count them in groups for each candidate and dump them like we used to. Now we have to think about how we count them, when we release them, etc., so that someone can't create a false narrative about the votes that are being counted."

It comes across like an acknowledgment that they don't believe it's safe for kids, and have to pick the most politically-opportunistic time to release it to mitigate the inevitable fallout if things go wrong.

I know that's not what they mean, but this is why it's always better to do the right thing than to do what you think others will perceive to be the right thing, or put management of the perception of your actions above the actual appropriateness of the actions and timing for the action.

(This is a common challenge in public service, which is a role that a lot of brilliant doctors and scientists are being thrown into in a way they haven't been before).

And maddeningly frustrating as it's already rolling like wildfire through schools. If you wanted to get the most bang for the buck, the best time was 6 weeks ago. The next best time is now.

SI

Brazilian viper venom may become tool in fight against COVID, study shows | Reuters

Part of me likes to imagine this is all just a game to see how far the right will go for non-vaccine treatments for covid. We're way past the tide pod challenge at this point.

Assume "effective" means infection rates. Want to know about mortality/hospitalization rates also though ... assume Moderna is better at that also but by how much.

Moderna vs. Pfizer vaccine: Which creates more antibodies? - Deseret News

I think 2 of us got Pfizer (including me) and 2 of us got Moderna. I guess I'm glad my wife got Moderna seeing as though she's in flight to Florida for a week to visit her parents.

I wonder if that’s why people seemed to have a worse reaction to Moderna.

That's always been my uneducated guess. We basically "overloaded" the Moderna vaccine to get a really strong immune response while Pfizer was a bit more conservative with theirs

SI

Interesting. In that case I'm a bit scared of what would have happened if I got Moderna. The second dose of Pfizer had me out of commission for almost a week.

I was Moderna and my wife and son were Pfizer. They had the typical kinda-tired, kinda-sore the day after shot #2.

I had a day in bed with fever, chills, etc. Interestingly, though, when it was gone, it was gone. I didn't have that lingering fatigue like you do when you are recovering from the flu, etc.

I had the chills and fever thing for a day with Pfizer. Sucked, but better than getting the real thing.

My wife and I were glad to take the day off work the day after Moderna (2nd shot). But, yeah, woke up the next morning right as rain - basically 24 hours of suck

SI

I didn't even get a sore arm with Pfizer.

Everyone in my family got Moderna and didn't feel a thing outside of a sore arm.

I had a sore arm for a couple days and felt like I had a hangover after the 2nd shot. But not a big deal. Believe it was Moderna.

I'm not fully certain about the demographics of this... but for a decent sliver of America, maybe the best thing to happen to them in the near term would be for Joe Rogan's bout with COVID to be consequential and difficult. I don't wish for him to die or even suffer, really... but if he went through a lot after telling so many people not to worry about this... maybe it could help convince another 1% or 2% of our fellow Americans to change heart and get the vax.

I know we're close to writing people off... but some things are still moving the needle. Stronger incentives, and workplace/travel mandates seem to have some obvious effect. Maybe another brand of influencer could, as well.

The denial phenomenon is a social effect. It may take a social event to help break the spell. Maybe Rogan is the guy.


(I'm honestly not calling for him to die for his sins, though I'll likely catching flak as if I were saying so)

What if instead, he immediately took horse paste and then suggested that was part of why he recovered so easily?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-rog...19-ivermectin/

It definitely wasn't the proven medical solution in the group that helped. I'm sure it was the rando antibiotics, vitamins, and horse dewormer.

SI

The problem is he will get better, and his toxic masculinity will never allow him to admit he was wrong and afraid. Instead he will talk down the FDA approved vaccine and talk up the experimental and expensive meds that allowed him to get better.

Had he died it would have moved the needle far more.

Yeah, I guess I relent. Was a pipe dream, I suppose.

*BTW, I'm seeing twitterers urge caution here, saying the press coverage of him as a a vax-denier is overblown or unfair... no first hand knowledge here, I'm not a listener, but my original thought was indeed predicated on thinking he had been outwardly anti-vax and covid-dismissive.

He's more of a contrarian that questions authority any chance he gets. He stated young people shouldn't get vaccinated but then walked that statement back after the backlash. I don't think he's come out as anti-vax, but instead walks a fine line.

I think he's someone who has the ability to move the needle in a non-conventional fashion. He seems like the type of guy who can reach some folks who "don't watch the news" (though if they do, it will always be Fox).

Unfortunately, this requires him to learn from the experience and I'm skeptical of that.

SI

It's certainly possible that some version of Ivermectin - designed for humans - could be of some benefit. We don't know, although I've read there are some small studies supporting this in other countries. The irony is that if it ever got to the point of serious consideration in the US, by the time the FDA/CDC gave it the seal of approval, I suppose all of these anti-vaxxers/contrarians would refuse to take it on the same grounds as they are refusing the vaccine!

I mean, he just loudly trumpeted literally everything but the vaccination as the cure for his own covid, let alone had an 'emergency episode' of his podcast that was one of the of the earliest promotions of Ivermectin.

A friend of mine is a huge fan boy, talks him up like he wants to fuck him, and this is how he describes him.

The last few years has made it clear that a lot of us in this society never got past angry rebel teen phase.

(Me, personally, I avoided that by never maturing much past about 7; sure I was a contrarian teenager and early 20 but then I regressed back further; now shut up and let me go back to playing Pokemon)

SI

He's like that older guy that hangs around high school kids drinking, smoking weed, and dropping knowledge. When you were in high school he was the coolest guy you knew. But now, for those of us that have grown up, we look back at that guy and realize he was a dumbass.

yeah, my buddy insists I would like him if I listened, and I was like, umm, no I won't.

I don't wanna sound like a dick, but when you are smart enough to know what and who he is there really isn't any way you could possibly find value in his show.

So I requested some info from our CFO yesterday and he told me it would be another week or so before he could get to it because he's assisting our CEO and HR person in preparing for potential departures due to the Covid mandate they put in place. We both got on a call early this afternoon, so for some small talk, I asked him whether they were just preparing in case, or if he knew people would be leaving. He said they are pretty sure several people will be leaving.

I just can't believe anyone would willingly give up employment over this. And yeah, I get that a lot of people are moving jobs in the Great Post-Covid Employment Migration, but this is a great company to work for with a track record for having employees stick around upwards of 70 years (we have a woman who's pushing late 80s who started in 1952).

Just crazy.

Well

If you’re still awaiting evidence that the vaccine work and don’t kill people at a higher rate than covid then you have no choice because you’d be committing dioxide to go get the jab


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not to mention there just aren't going to be many good companies to work for that won't have a vaccine mandate.

Somewhat concerning article. Basically, Israel had a relatively successful rollout and offering boosters, is still seeing a significant rise in infections but severe illness (and mortality) is still lower than before. The number per million infected is much higher than the US and therefore, a possible preview of what's to come over here.

The new normal may be higher-than-flu infection rates, and higher-than-flu mortality rates ... but "acceptable" mortality rates. The article doesn't state recent % mortality. I do wonder if this is intentional e.g. if recent mortality rate is .3%, there is concern that people will look at that and say I'm willing to take the risk.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/isra...ases-rise.html

Nothing from my multi-national company yet. I don't know if we have a rush to mandate vaccinations since the vast, vast majority of us are still remote and clients are in no rush for us to be onsite.

We are helping colleagues in other countries in procuring vaccines which I think is pretty cool.

I selfishly want to see this continue just to change the narrative about the people who involved in the Great Post-Covid Employment Migration. I am assuming these are not people who are "lazy and just don't want to work."

whoa you used the phrase "rolling like" without it being followed by "thunder under the covers"

Seen this a bit elsewhere. Crazy thing is how many people 50 and over are willing to torch their careers over it. It's not terribly easy to find good, new jobs at that age.

It feels like they think they'll be some martyr and people will come to their rescue. But it's more likely they'll just be unemployed and struggle for years.

And some states are denying unemployment.

Employment benefits could be denied for those fired over Oregon COVID-19 vaccine mandate | KATU

They can probably get a nice mandate-free job in a coal mine somewhere...

Same with my company. When they announced the mandatory vaccine my middle son said that he heard kids at school say they wouldn't consider working there anymore, and I'm like, you're gonna turn your back on a potential 10M dollar career because of this?

or

The very small % of pilots at the company who are getting ready to vacate too over it and I just don't get why this is the hill your resting your entire career on. It's fucking stupid. It's not like anyone said they had to actually kill someone to stay employed.