Thanks :)

kinky

that sounds wolfy

uhoh that can't be good.

Today is the first vote that I've made that I consider 'bad' so feel free to scrutinize. I made a huge blunder in moving from CR to Telle. I did it due to something DT said (something about CR being okay, although it was in regards to the Jackal-CR showdown but I wasn't ready to lynch Jackal) but I guess I should've followed Danny with his 'evidence.' I assume this makes me a candidate for tomorrow but you at least have my reasoning.

It is time to reveal.

I am Renee Walker an FBI agent. My power gives me the ability to learn about the voters the first time I vote to lynch a villager. In addition if I cast the last vote that causes the deadline to learn the name of a someone who voted with me. The information that I'm given is how many members of the conspiracy voted with me. In this case there were no members of the conspiracy who voted with me.

Here was the vote totals from the death of Telle.

Telle: path (1502, 4:49 pm) saldana (1515 6:28 pm) Purdue (1560, 7:30 PM) nfg (1632 8:36 pm) ntn (1639 8:39 pm) henry (1653 8:43 pm)
nfg
Jackal: Thomakl (1411, 2:24 PM) Pass (1425 2:57 pm) iSidiqui (1465 3:52 pm)
Danny: Autumn (1450, 3:21 PM)

Therefore, I'm convinced Thomkal, Pass, Isidiqui and Autumn are our conspirators.

VOTE Thomkal

are we down to 16 players now? or 17?

I guess I'll follow along

vote Thomkal

Looks like 16 DT, but two are out of commission (nfg, BrianD).

I hope this is true but this sounds like quite an unbalanced power.

Henry are you saying that you believe there is no way that path, sal, PB, nfg and ntn are wolves?

That's what he is saying.

I believe that is what he is saying and I agree about at least one of those people. ;)

Actually after looking at this more closely, it looks like DT, EagleFan, BrianD didn't vote, but I think we feel ok about them. Who else didn't vote.

Also, it looks like CR's vote for Telle was still counted unless nfg gets two votes b/c he is listed twice.

So you think that nfg is not a wolf? ;)

Absolutely... although I can add you to the did not vote list, so I don't know about you.

Hey, I could bring the sig back at anytime...jerkface.

@10:36pm - that's affirmative and also correct re: where they were. i have no doubts about you - have not for some time.

There's a lot of people that aren't on your list -- people who didn't vote, and people who voted for Chief Rum.

I didn't see Schmidty or Danny on your list either -- although I have high trust for Danny, and pretty good trust for Schmidty.

I voted for CR, actually. If it's true that PB and NTN are good, then that throws out that part of my voting record, though.

If we are to believe henry:

These are the remaining suspects
1. Danny - Pretty sure he is good
3. TheJackal
6. Passacaglia
7. Autumn
8. Schmidty
14. ISiddiqui
19. Kingfc22 - I know I'm good
20. Thomkal
24. eaglefan

High trust:
15. DaddyTorgo - CTU Special Agent Jack Bauer
12. BrianD - Recovering from torture
16. ntndeacon

Mid Trust with henry's info:
10. PurdueBrad - clear
13. nfg22 - Disciplinary action - clear
17. Saldana - clear
22. path12 - clear
23. henry296 - clear

I also don't see king on there.

Let me try to go through this systematically.

1. Danny - High Trust, turned in CR
3. TheJackal - Potential wolf, no vote
6. Passacaglia - Potential wolf, didn't vote for Telle
7. Autumn - Potential wolf, didn't vote for Telle
8. Schmidty - Potential wolf, didn't vote for Telle
10. PurdueBrad - Good vote for Telle
12. BrianD - Recovering from torture - presumed good based on DT interrogation
13. nfg22 - Disciplinary action - good voted for Telle
14. ISiddiqui - Potential wolf, didn't vote for Telle
15. DaddyTorgo - CTU Special Agent Jack Bauer - GOOD
16. ntndeacon- Good, voted for Telle
17. Saldana - Good, voted for Telle
19. Kingfc22 - Potential wolf, no vote but was voting for CR
20. Thomkal - Potential wolf, didn't vote for Telle
22. path12 - Good, voted for Telle
23. henry296 - GOOD
24. eaglefan - Potential wolf, no vote but his distrust of CR makes him good in my eyes).

We probably should add Jackal and Schmidty to list of potential wolves b/c the others who didn't vote either have good reasons or had originally votes for CR.

henry.. I voted for CR.

Given the close vote, I would be surprised if a wolf was hiding on CR.

I was on CR for a while, no one was listening to me, so I switched to Telle with CR, then Danny came out with this info and I switched back.

Correct, sorry I missed that one.

It's cool, just wanted to get you aware of it before you posted more analysis.

I'm out for the night, weird but good day. Despite my voting record, I'm glad to hear Henry's news.

If people want to chat with me, I'll be online for about another hour and then not back to after 8 PM tomorrow.

so jackal isn't on your list henry? he can't be a wolf?

I'm definitely on his list. Until I said anything he didn't even think I'd voted.

I'm well aware I fall into the "uncleared" category and I'm ready to deal with it.

Feel free to do me a favor and have someone scan/interrogate me, but I feel pretty good about what I've done and said here, and I'd been on CR before he generated much suspicion.

Jackal could be a wolf, but his vote was on CR and then dropped when CR was killed just prior to the lynch of Telle. Thus the CR votes were not included in the final wrap-up BK posted. THerefore, for I trust Jackal just slightly less than the Telle voters. Same thing with King.

okay - so since this has been pretty blown-open...

Funny. 13 people are waiting in anticipation to see what DT has to say :)

lol - are you all? i was curious if someone was going to say "yeah?" or anything

Unvote nfg

Going to give him the benefit of the doubt with henry's info.

Wow, great job Henry. I definitely trust his list

I think if we combine this with some info from DT, we should have the wolves caught

Oh well, good luck village, at least I helped us get one wolf :)

Well, good work with the past lynch Danny, sorry to see you go.

yes - i suspected that was your role danny. fuck that we lost you.

FWIW guys - i fully support this analysis by Henry but you also have to factor in EF and Jackal who did not vote. Danny may elaborate on his trust for EF later to me, so we'll see about that.

It also gels with what I was about to post about who the likely conspirators were in my mind based on my trust-list (where there are 6 on my "non-trust" section, and autumn is in "medium trust" but with the note that he could be a wolf demonstrating his power to me because he figures it's relatively harmless.

Bottom line (assuming no cunning, although i think that may end up being faulty - but we cross that bridge when we get to it): our wolves lie in the group of: Thomkal, Jackal, kingfc22, EagleFan (maybe), ISiddiqui, autumn, pass, path, saldana

That is based on MY list. Of that list, I hope to be able to move pass + saldana off of it entirely soon, and i would rank them as LOW chance of being wolves. Path is the next least likely, and then autumn in my mind, based on their roles and what they've demonstrated of their powers.

so the bottom of MY list looks like this:

autumn
path
pass/saldana

The other 5 people are in one big clump at the top.


Henry's list subtracts Path and Saldana from mine if we are to believe his powers (and i have no reason not to, and every reason to believe them, just saying). Of those, I think Path is the more relevant, as I am just waiting for corroboration before moving Saldana off of mine anyways.


I had intended to hold this all back till i either found one more wolf or was able to move pass + saldana off the list, just to make the numbers better. but with henry coming out with it all, it seems like there's no reason i shouldn't corroborate his story.

people that aren't listed there are unacceptable votes at the moment. if they become acceptable at some point in the future i suggest you start with the people who have not been "seer cleared" which are purduebrad, ntn. after that, it's a craphshoot if there's a cunning where they are.

Well done Danny... Good game.

hah! conspiracy can't kill me!!!

For about the fourth time, DT - I voted for CR yesterday. I'd like it if people would stop thinking I didn't vote yesterday, as it seriously harms any views of me.

I didn't mean for that post to come off as angry, I just want it to be clear that I voted for him, twice actually during the day, and I wasn't a no-voter.

great work NTN and Danny!

not sure when i will be able to get into check stuff tomorrow...this week has been horrible for me at work...sorry to all that i have been less than helpful

vote thomkal

Well, this wasn't the evening to have a guest. I guess. Finally caught up. That was pretty crazy. I'm not sure why Henry listed me as a wolf first out of all those possibilities. I'm not, but I'll have to look back at the further explanations to understand.

I got pretty screwed by the surprise votes on Telle tonight as it wasted my ability. I don't really understand all that movement to her. I'm glad that the PM system bought us a wolf kill finally though, that was nice.

Oops now caught up on the newer posts as the thread was locked up. I would never have guessed Danny's ability, that's a surprise. Hopefully DT has what he needs at this point.

sorry - i typed up that part before i was clear on that

It's cool. Mass of posts, constant confusion. Thanks, hoops and BK!

I am ok with this. Lets see how good henry's info is.
Vote Thomkal

Autumn - I did not list those people in order, just pulled them from the didn't vote for Telle list. I'd be interested in learning how Telle's death impacts your powers.

Let me squeeze off the necessary goodbye pic of Kim.. Dirty conspirator!:

vote path

We might as well try to narrow down the list a bit and have two candidates. Maybe some movement one way or the other will let us know which to go after next.

It's just not the same now after attaching CR's name to it. :)

Why are you voting for path, exactly?

I didn't mean the order, I just mean I don't know why you listed a group of us as being wolves but ignored other people who didn't vote Telle. Maybe I don't understand your power.

I just mean that I had chosen to confirm Telle's role tonight, which obviously was a waste. She wasn't in any danger when I left so I thought it was a good bet.

I ask because he was cleared by Henry, is all. Seems like the more prudent choices would come from me, pass, autumn, isidd, thomkal, and king. Out of that list I think the likeliest three are thomkal, pass, and isidd. But that's just my guess, I'll let the semi-cleared players drive most of the discussion.

DT's list has him among the bottom tier of the list. After the confusion over Autumn yesterday I wasn't sure if I was going to go with him or path as the second candidate. I basically flipped a coin from there.

My first list was a little hasty as I had assumed everyone had voted. My power cleared those who voted with me, but you are correct there were a couple of more potential wolves, which I've later commented on. However, many of those who didn't vote for Telle did not for Chief Rum which is good in my eyes. Schmidty, who didn't vote for either Telle or CR is just as likely a suspect as you based on my knowledge.

very true. note that path was 3rd from the bottom of my list. voting from higher up on the list is the logical thing to do.

So are you disregarding henry having cleared path?

Sorry, misread that. I thought that DT's list took henry's into account.

unvote path

I forgot about Schmidty, I don't really know where to throw him in this equation.

maybe my list was a little unclear - the "bottom tier" of my list were people i think were "least likely to be bad" (with autumn the most likely of the 4), not "most likely"

the best votes are in the top group of 5.

I figured it was just some confusion on your part, EF. Pick a better candidate, preferably not me. ;)

schmidty is fine. i didn't list him, did i? therefore he's not a suspect at all.

path was 2nd from bottom, only Autumn was listed ahead of him and I didn't exactly read that as they were ranked in order, just that they were the bottom tier.

Right, I thought I remembered at least you and possibly someone else say they didn't suspect Schmidty, but I was mostly trying to think for myself what he's done vote-wise and such.

Yesterday you said Autumn wasn't fne, then you said he was, now he's at the bottom tier of your list. Now you tell us Schmidty is fine, is he going to show up on your list tomorrow as not trusted?

Keep in mind the "bottom tier" of DT's list was people that he trusts the most in that post, EF.

vote henry

I still don't trust his claimed power as it seems potentially too powerful, yet no one questions this?

no.

there was obviously confusion with autumn regarding the word "roles" and what was going on there. after that was cleared up i said that autumn was okay in my book, but that didn't mean he was on the "HT" list.

i said autumn was on my "MT" list today. which he is. my "MT" list is the bottom tier of those who are uncleared.

schmidty is not listed as uncleared or on the MT list. should i spell it out more?

Interesting.

Would be a ballsy move for a wolf to make, EF. How much time would it buy them?

I need to read all of the "longer" posts instead of skimming and looking at lists. :)

When I see bottom tier I figured that meant the least trusted / most distrusted.

No wonder he was steering us wrong, his lists probably even confuse him. :)

Basically, EF, you're suggesting that henry is a wolf and that multiple of PB, ntn, nfg, sal, and path are wolves?

i steered us wrong for 2 days - that's hardly any worse than we would have done without my info.

and the result of those 2 days is a very tight list of potential suspects (with or without henry it was coming out tonight i'd say...henry helps us lop off path and saldana off of the suspects list, which is good).

hardly steering us wrong.

Could there be a traitor type role? It would be a good play for a traitor, one that may put the game close to end game as it gets everyone into mob mentality and nothing is learned of vote history for two days plus we lose two villagers in a lynch (figuring the traitor counts in our numbers) and in night kills for a 4-0 run for the wolves without them having to risk anything.

Kind of convenient that this reveal came out after a wolf is lost.

It certainly would probably buy at least 4-0 for the wolves if henry and one or more of those other guys are wolves. Is that enough to get them close to endgame, you think? It seems like we have enough people left, but people are dying frequently.

OK, I'm just catching up and this is fascinating, but henry, WTF? Why the throwaway?

I guess we see what Pass, ISidd, et. al have to say for themselves.

lol

henry's not a wolf guys. (standard disclaimer: unless he's the cunning)

If you took the info I gave you yesterday we would have lynched CR instead of clap so yes that is steering us wrong, I gave you the info and then I voted for him so I was willing to test the validity of it. If you took the other info I gave you to protect Michelle we may have gotten lucky with a wolf lynch day one instead of a villager so yes that is steering us wrong.

Well that's good, then. I mean I was just seeing where EF was going with this line of thought, gotta explore it all.

EagleFan - I don't think the role was too powerful. I think we just got lucky with my role that there were no wolves who voted with me and it was later in the game than probably originally intended. When I first got my role I thought it was a nice, but likely would tell us that in a list of 7-10 there were 1-2 wolves which would have been nice but nearly the type of CoT it generated. That likely would've been the result if I voted for a villager on day 1 or 2. We got a little fortunate that I didn't use my power until later in the game.

For example, on the first day I was would've voted for Kwhit to make sure to use my power except I didn't finish reading until after the lynch so I didn't vote.

i didn't know who michelle was. kwhit never gave me his character-name!

and as for yesterday - clap was pinging everybody wrong and was on a list just like CR. Your info on CR was good yes, but your info on the other two people was wrong, and frankly I didn't have a reason to trust you yet over anybody else.

still don't.

how many games have there ever been where the village has pitched a shutout, only lynching wolves? ever? it's not going to happen...villagers will die. Jeezus...Kwhit didn't even complain this much about his dying. So yeah...we lynched a couple villagers...big frigging deal.

The traitor is not a wolf in most all cases so take your lol and shove it into a list. I am trying to get us to cover all of our bases and be prepared for what could be a very good play.

i'm not going to apologize because we lynched 2 villagers instead of possibly pitching a perfect game. that's ridiculous, and frankly it's making you look very wolfish.

I'm smelling desperation.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

What other two people? I told you that the list said it potentially included at least one wolf, not that they were all wolves. It said Danny and Telle were unknown and CR was questionable. Based on what we have seen that list was pretty much dead on by my interpretation.

Wasn't there that one game where Alan or someone nailed all 4 wolves in one post? Maybe there were 5 and it wasn't a shutout, but we definitely lynched a bunch of wolves in a row.

Do you even listen to yourself? I have handed you information on a wolf and two that were most likely good if you read into the list. It's not about "pitching a perfect game", it's about tryig to keep from potentially being led into a dead end. Personally henry's claimed power seems like a desperate ploy if you ask me. Yet you have now twice tried to bring me up for a vote despite my proving to be an asset to the village.

Vote for me, that's really smart. Especially if henry is the traitor, then you just cost us the game.

I propose one simple vote, we give henry's claim a test by making him the second candidate. It will be obvious if a wolf run happens based on his list. If the second candiate gets lynched and is a wolf, great for us he is corrct and we win. If he gets lynched and we find out exactly what he said his powers were then we go right back to the list and we win. It's a win/win situation yet you are too damn stubborn to see it.