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dubb93 05-15-2009 02:47 PM

I'm heading off here for a while. Instead of just posting to be posting I think I'd rather play some Drakensang.

Abe Sargent 05-15-2009 02:48 PM

Vote PurdueBrad

We need to figure this thing out and get past it.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023579)
Anyway, you're not worried about the possibility of him being the cunning?


Probably not any more than any other player. He begged for a scan last night but didn't make a peep about it after Day 1 when he could have made a case for it when I was publicly asking for the seer to scan EF. If they were wolves together then it obviously would have been their preference to have PB scanned instead of EF.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:00 PM

Anyway, look. I'm sorry to anyone I've offended or pissed off but I have to defend myself to the hilt not one, not two, but now the start of a third straight day. Common sense would say that I have likely been scanned by now and no seer has jumped up and down yelling wolf. But even a cleared scan doesn't help me, as Pass is already laying the cunning groundwork.

I've really fought off the urge to just say "I'm a wolf" to get it over with even though I'm not. But so far I'm not. But for defending myself the rest of the day or even defending myself the rest of the game, I'm not. I don't think this is a lay down and die play...I am completely spent of information, what else can I possibly have or know. And frankly, if I do get any info, I'm not even allowed to reveal it.

It's Friday, I should be in a much better mood, these last two and a half days here have ruined that (first time that has really happened from other people, happened once early simply due to me making a stupid play as a villager and costing us a game).

All that, there, I'm sure you care.

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023583)
Probably not any more than any other player. He begged for a scan last night but didn't make a peep about it after Day 1 when he could have made a case for it when I was publicly asking for the seer to scan EF. If they were wolves together then it obviously would have been their preference to have PB scanned instead of EF.


I'm not sure I follow.

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023588)
Anyway, look. I'm sorry to anyone I've offended or pissed off but I have to defend myself to the hilt not one, not two, but now the start of a third straight day. Common sense would say that I have likely been scanned by now and no seer has jumped up and down yelling wolf. But even a cleared scan doesn't help me, as Pass is already laying the cunning groundwork.

I've really fought off the urge to just say "I'm a wolf" to get it over with even though I'm not. But so far I'm not. But for defending myself the rest of the day or even defending myself the rest of the game, I'm not. I don't think this is a lay down and die play...I am completely spent of information, what else can I possibly have or know. And frankly, if I do get any info, I'm not even allowed to reveal it.

It's Friday, I should be in a much better mood, these last two and a half days here have ruined that (first time that has really happened from other people, happened once early simply due to me making a stupid play as a villager and costing us a game).

All that, there, I'm sure you care.


I'm sorry if I offended you, too -- I'm just playing a game here. But I don't think that there's nothing you can do. If you're a villager, you're in the unique position, well unique for us villagers, of *knowing* that we were villager/wolf last night. Does that information lead you toward anyone? Is that why your vote is on me, rather than purely out of spite?

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:07 PM

Pass, at the end of Day 1 I posted in the thread that I though the seer should scan EF so we understood the voting results. Now, in fact D1 was a three horse race, with EF/NTN/PB although PB came up a little further back at the very end. But he was lead vote getter, by a two vote margin I believe, in the late afternoon.

If PB+EF are wolves together, and PB = cunning, then they CLEARLY would want to have PB scanned instead of EF. No one offered any other scan suggestions in the thread during the night phase. I would expect that either PB or one of the other wolves might have suggested "don't forget about PB, he might be a good scan target too!" to at least put another idea out there for the seer.

That did not happen. Because of this, I think it is a little less likely that PB is the cunning wolf who managed to attract a N2 scan and is moving towards trusted status.

Is it possible? Sure, I guess. But I'll play percentages every time on cunning wolf/seer scans. Cleared by seer > not cleared by seer.

And if the seer has not scanned PB by the end of N3 then I don't know what to tell him/her.

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023596)
Pass, at the end of Day 1 I posted in the thread that I though the seer should scan EF so we understood the voting results. Now, in fact D1 was a three horse race, with EF/NTN/PB although PB came up a little further back at the very end. But he was lead vote getter, by a two vote margin I believe, in the late afternoon.

If PB+EF are wolves together, and PB = cunning, then they CLEARLY would want to have PB scanned instead of EF. No one offered any other scan suggestions in the thread during the night phase. I would expect that either PB or one of the other wolves might have suggested "don't forget about PB, he might be a good scan target too!" to at least put another idea out there for the seer.

That did not happen. Because of this, I think it is a little less likely that PB is the cunning wolf who managed to attract a N2 scan and is moving towards trusted status.

Is it possible? Sure, I guess. But I'll play percentages every time on cunning wolf/seer scans. Cleared by seer > not cleared by seer.

And if the seer has not scanned PB by the end of N3 then I don't know what to tell him/her.


I hear ya on that. How was the fact that he begged for a scan on Night 2 involved, though?

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023594)
Is that why your vote is on me, rather than purely out of spite?


No actually, it's what I saw as the illogical flip from saying you felt we were V-V the night before but as soon as EF is a wolf, thinking we must have been W-W. And the intended EF unvote.

As for who I see, my list, which is posted a few times:

Poli, Lathum, Autumn I trust

Saldana, Martin D need a look

Pass, Hoops, Telle, Abe, Jackal are distrust

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023610)
No actually, it's what I saw as the illogical flip from saying you felt we were V-V the night before but as soon as EF is a wolf, thinking we must have been W-W. And the intended EF unvote.

As for who I see, my list, which is posted a few times:

Poli, Lathum, Autumn I trust

Saldana, Martin D need a look

Pass, Hoops, Telle, Abe, Jackal are distrust


Hey...I already fucking EXPLAINED why I changed my mind on that. So there. :p

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:21 PM

PB, have you even read what I've posted today? I'm probably arguing harder for you than anyone in the room. I also backed you on Day 1.

Sorry you are having a tough game, getting heat, whatever. Guess what - it happens that way sometimes. End the pity party and get back into the game. Oh, and it probably wouldn't hurt to actually check your assumptions at some point instead of operating with "tunnel vision".

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023605)
I hear ya on that. How was the fact that he begged for a scan on Night 2 involved, though?


I can understand being super-frustrated with a game and wanting to change up the atmosphere.

As a villager, begging for a scan isn't optimal because it keeps the seer from being able to find a wolf. But I honestly don't think that PB has been at his most rational most of this game. In poker terms, I think he is on uber-monkey-tilt.

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:29 PM

A lot of people in the thread, but not many interested in chatting.

Quote:

Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)


I know others have said it, but I'm also not seeing the reasoning on the Telle vote. For you guys that are in the thread now -- what do you think of the *voters* on Telle (since I don't expect to get more reasoning on why Telle has been chosen anymore at this point)?

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023616)
PB, have you even read what I've posted today? I'm probably arguing harder for you than anyone in the room. I also backed you on Day 1.

Sorry you are having a tough game, getting heat, whatever. Guess what - it happens that way sometimes. End the pity party and get back into the game. Oh, and it probably wouldn't hurt to actually check your assumptions at some point instead of operating with "tunnel vision".


Actually, from a tunnel vision standpoint, I've broadened my horizons from just Telle to Telle and you to Telle and Abe and you and Pass and Jackal. So I'm not really locked in on anybody.

As for pity, no such luck. I would say apathy, or at least an attempt to get to apathy.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023614)
Hey...I already fucking EXPLAINED why I changed my mind on that. So there. :p


Didn't ask you to re-explain anything.

I don't expect to explain something and have you immediately believe it, just don't consistently ask me to repeat the same information a couple dozen times.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:34 PM

Here is the more advanced version of vote analysis from the first two days, based on my interpretations:

1. Claphamsa D1: PackerFanatic D2: Telle Unvotes: PB (D2 early) Timing: throwaway vote late D2 (Telle five back, inside of last 20-30 minutes) rather than voting one of lead dogs.

2. EagleFan - Evil Information Collector, Lynched Day 2

3. Barkeep D1: NTN D2: Telle Unvotes: Hoops (D2), PB (D2 late) Timing: PB move in last hour, moving vote from 8-7 PB to 7-7 PB/EF. This is marginally better than I recall last night, as it indirectly increased pressure on EF.

4. The Jackal D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: EF Timing: middle of D3, changes to PB 3 posts later and margin goes from 5EF - 4PB to 4EF - 5PB. He looks worse now than I recalled last night with no end votes on EF and an unvote on EF yesterday.

5. Abe D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote tied up PB with EF at 4-4. Links himself through trust to BK at least twice in thread.

6. PackerFanatic D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1) Timing: no real meaning to discern from D1 vote change. D2 vote on EF was meaningful (7-6 margin).

7. Hoopsguy D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: both pretty early votes, no moves to save EF on D1, no moves to hang EF on D2.

8. PurdueBrad D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Hoops (D1, D2), EF (D1, D2), NTN (D1), Telle (D1) Timing: all kind of late vote changes, not always optimal for survival until last five minutes. Can certainly make a case that he was trying to help EF based on D1 NTN late call and D2 late movement away from EF to anyone offered as an option

9. Lathum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: Poli (D1), Abe (D1) Timing: pretty insignificant vote moves, early in day. Erratic play on D2 hard to understand, but suggests alternate win conditions

10. Martin D D1: PB D2: EF Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote on EF was meaningful.

11. Poli D1: Abe D2: EF Unvotes: Lathum (D1), Telle (D1, D2), PB (D2) Timing: had multiple chances to put vote on EF on Day 2, did not until very end of day. This looks like one of the worst voting records of the people who have an EF final vote to their name.

12. Passacaglia D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1), Hoops (D1 + D2), EF (D2 - sort of) Timing; NTN votes on D1 tied it back up at 4-4 (he had voted No Lynch, then put vote back where it was when learning it was not a good option). His EF vote on D2 is muted by the fact that he illegally attempted to move his vote, failing to unvote when casting a vote for Telle. Another one of the weaker voting records with a EF vote to their name.

13. Lerriuqs D1: Pass D2: no vote Unvotes: None Timing: Day 2 vote on PB tied it at 7-7, not a good vote based on current information. Day 1 vote cast early, never revisited.

14. Dubb93 D1: EF D2: EF Unvotes: Saldana (D1), PB (D2) Timing: both unvotes came pretty early, both votes on EF were meaningful based on timing, no unvotes down stretch to help EF either time. Very good vote history.

15. Autumn D1: Telle D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D1) Timing: D2 vote on EF is strong, helping create two man race with PB. D1 unvote was very PB-friendly, moving him out of 2 vote lead to throw vote on distant candidate. One of drivers of potential 3rd candidate on Day 1.

16. Chief Rum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D1 vote was a big one against EF, D2 vote was a big one for EF. Has floated a couple of theories this game that have been dubious (EF/NTN voters with one wolf each early on, wolves would not block their own which was false on D2)

17. NTNDeacon - The Talker, Lynched Day 1

18. Telle D1: PB D2: PB Unvotes: Abe (D1) Timing: 2nd driver (w/Autumn) of 3rd candidate on D1 when there was a wolf in the mix. No good votes to help cause. Her votes have been early enough to not be magnified.

19. DaddyTorgo D1: no vote D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D2) Timing: Vote change on D2 looks good, but felt like he was looking for excessive credit for doing so when others were initial movers and shakers on EF.

20. AlanT - The Arbitrator, Night kill Day 2

21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops Unvotes: EF (D2) Timing: pretty late unvote on EF brought race back to an 8-8 tie. D1 vote was more or less throwaway on likely villager.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023640)
Can certainly make a case that he was trying to help EF based on D1 NTN late call and D2 late movement away from EF to anyone offered as an option


No case to be made, I admit to trying to help him. Completely misguided but I tried 110% to help him.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023643)
No case to be made, I admit to trying to help him. Completely misguided but I tried 110% to help him.


And before it is asked again, I did it because I was trying to be more open-minded towards people I typically have a bias against and, again, I had a read, perceived or other-wise, on a Telle-ntn save dynamic.

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023637)
Didn't ask you to re-explain anything.

I don't expect to explain something and have you immediately believe it, just don't consistently ask me to repeat the same information a couple dozen times.


So the issue is that you don't believe me? I had to change to something when EF died, since believing that we were villager/villager afterward would not have been wise. It seems more like you are taking issue with what I changed my thought to.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:40 PM

From there, here is my trust list right now. I think you can take this to suggest I'm not wild about the current vote count.

Trust:
Dubb, Autumn, MartinD, PackerFanatic

Slight Above Norm:
Lathum

Neutral:
Chief Rum, Pass, PurdueBrad, MommyTorgo

Nervous:
Telle, Poli, Abe

Distrust:
Saldana, Jackal, Clap

Need more from:
Lerriuqs, Barkeep

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023647)
So the issue is that you don't believe me? I had to change to something when EF died, since believing that we were villager/villager afterward would not have been wise. It seems more like you are taking issue with what I changed my thought to.


I don't know what the logical answer to not being VV is that we must have been WW. But frankly.

unvote pass

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:42 PM

All right, we are talking around some circles here. Let's move some stuff around:


UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD
VOTE SALDANA

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:42 PM

VOTE THE JACKAL

I'll almost certainly move this to another candidate if we can't get some momentum going but I really would prefer not to see PB voted out today. Tomorrow? Maybe.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:42 PM

That should read:

I don't why the logical answer...

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023255)
Heh, it reads to me like I don't know who the wolves are, and I'm trying to figure it out as we go. First of all, it's just a suspicion that we were wolf/wolf, I'm not sure of it or anything. However, it just doesn't like like any more effort was made to save EF than was made to save you, which to me means either villager/villager or wolf/wolf. If we were wolf/villager, who in your opinion was trying to save EF and get you voted out instead?


PB, here's post 1587, where I explained my reasoning about why I went from thinking we were v/v to thinking we're w/w. If you have any questions about it, let me know.

Lathum 05-15-2009 03:46 PM

anyone have a vote count?

I'm to dense to do one

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:46 PM

Appreciated Pass, remembered the explanation, just doesn't mean I agree.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2023655)
anyone have a vote count?

I'm to dense to do one



Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
PB - Lathum (1554), PF (1661), Abe (1702)
PF - Jackal (1637)
Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
Saldana - Dubb (1684), Pass (1722)
Jackal - Hoops (1723)
1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2023655)
I'm to dense to do one


And why do you think I rarely do one.

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023656)
Appreciated Pass, remembered the explanation, just doesn't mean I agree.


That's cool -- since you said you didn't know why that was the logical answer, I just figured I'd remind you. :) So...if you don't agree, who do you think was trying to save EF and get you lynched instead? And if no one, why do you think the wolves just sat there and did nothing while EF was lynched?

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 03:50 PM

Ugh, forgot to put in line breaks. Lets try that again. As of Post #1728:

5 Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
3 PB - Lathum (1554), PF (1661), Abe (1702)
1 PF - Jackal (1637)
1 Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
2 Saldana - Dubb (1684), Pass (1722)
1 Jackal - Hoops (1723)

1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:51 PM

Since most of the people on my distrust list were already on me, I would guess that that is why. Or maybe it was Poli or BK who tried to distract with a third party knowing that I had shown I would go for it. I doubt it, but possible. You guys realize you're trying to get somebody who's voting record is the worst this game.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023668)
You guys realize you're trying to get information from somebody who's voting record is the worst this game.


maybe its a freudian slip and there is an admission of me being a wolf.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 04:16 PM

Looks like a crappy slow Friday. Sigh. Votes through Post #1733:

Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
PB - Lathum (1554), PF (1661), Abe (1702)
PF - Jackal (1637)
Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
Saldana - Dubb (1684), Pass (1722)
Jackal - Hoops (1723)

No votes: Lerriuqs, Chief Rum, Telle, MommyTorgo, Eeyore (er, PurdueBrad)

lerriuqs 05-15-2009 04:32 PM

VOTE Saldana

I'm not sold on Telle or PB at this point.

Barkeep49 05-15-2009 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023532)
Go for it. Look, here's an explanation for "the way [I've] acted in here today." I have 200 posts, most defending myself. A simple search turned up 39 posts that stated the exact piece of information that I was being asked to repeat again. Did I really need to repeat it for a 40'th time? And, since I have no role of real power, do I really have anything to add at this time? Hopefully that gets my frustration across.

This comment is merely my opinion as a player and is not meant with any mod authority

I would say yes you do. As a teacher, if you have a kid who is trying to learn something, is genuinely curious, you're not going to leave them out to dry, I hope. You might point them to a resource where they can get their question answered, the analogy here being to simply post a quote of what you've answered before. You don't need to come up with a new way to answer a question, but I think in WW, especially one with this many posts, it's not unreasonable at all to expect people to answer a question that is important to the overall flow of the game. Just quote yourself, and you can, if you feel peevish, even make a little snide remark about it. But answering inquiry just seems like a fundamental part of the game and not something that people should be surprised or offended by.

The Jackal 05-15-2009 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023652)
VOTE THE JACKAL

I'll almost certainly move this to another candidate if we can't get some momentum going but I really would prefer not to see PB voted out today. Tomorrow? Maybe.


I explained my vote quite thoroughly. I wanted to vote for EF but if PB had been lynched and turned up bad and I wasn't on him I would've looked awful. Not knowing whether either of them were bad, I went with Lathum, though that seems to not have much to do with PB being good or bad.

The Jackal 05-15-2009 04:56 PM

Several times I argued for the case against EF, also. I know hoops is the only vote on me but I want to make sure people see this explained again.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 04:56 PM

Well, it seems that you "look awful" now for not voting EF - kind of cuts both ways, doesn't it? But this vote is a combination of D1/D2/D3, not just the showdown yesterday as there were plenty of people on the wrong horse there (me included).

Barkeep49 05-15-2009 04:57 PM

Unvote telle

Her vouching for NTN with EF under pressure is indeed something that should gain her trust. Help me understand the saldana thoughts.

The Jackal 05-15-2009 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023712)
Well, it seems that you "look awful" now for not voting EF - kind of cuts both ways, doesn't it? But this vote is a combination of D1/D2/D3, not just the showdown yesterday as there were plenty of people on the wrong horse there (me included).


I wouldn't say I look awful for not voting EF since I wanted to and was questioning others (specifically CR) when they questioned the case against him.

I don't know why you have PF on your trusted list at all.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:12 PM

Well, I've got PB neutral now but I will be moving him up to trusted for Day 4, barring a seer coming out gunning for him. I think that he has either been scanned or will be the next scan if still alive.

I wouldn't have said you look awful for a vote on D2, one way or the other, in a vacuum. But you had an unvote on EF and swung over to PB when they were tied 4-4 (minus your vote). Couple that with a NTN vote instead of EF on Day 1 and a vote for someone I trust today and I think you look more wolfy than most right about now.

Poli 05-15-2009 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023640)
Here is the more advanced version of vote analysis from the first two days, based on my interpretations:

1. Claphamsa D1: PackerFanatic D2: Telle Unvotes: PB (D2 early) Timing: throwaway vote late D2 (Telle five back, inside of last 20-30 minutes) rather than voting one of lead dogs.

2. EagleFan - Evil Information Collector, Lynched Day 2

3. Barkeep D1: NTN D2: Telle Unvotes: Hoops (D2), PB (D2 late) Timing: PB move in last hour, moving vote from 8-7 PB to 7-7 PB/EF. This is marginally better than I recall last night, as it indirectly increased pressure on EF.

4. The Jackal D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: EF Timing: middle of D3, changes to PB 3 posts later and margin goes from 5EF - 4PB to 4EF - 5PB. He looks worse now than I recalled last night with no end votes on EF and an unvote on EF yesterday.

5. Abe D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote tied up PB with EF at 4-4. Links himself through trust to BK at least twice in thread.

6. PackerFanatic D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1) Timing: no real meaning to discern from D1 vote change. D2 vote on EF was meaningful (7-6 margin).

7. Hoopsguy D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: both pretty early votes, no moves to save EF on D1, no moves to hang EF on D2.

8. PurdueBrad D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Hoops (D1, D2), EF (D1, D2), NTN (D1), Telle (D1) Timing: all kind of late vote changes, not always optimal for survival until last five minutes. Can certainly make a case that he was trying to help EF based on D1 NTN late call and D2 late movement away from EF to anyone offered as an option

9. Lathum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: Poli (D1), Abe (D1) Timing: pretty insignificant vote moves, early in day. Erratic play on D2 hard to understand, but suggests alternate win conditions

10. Martin D D1: PB D2: EF Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote on EF was meaningful.

11. Poli D1: Abe D2: EF Unvotes: Lathum (D1), Telle (D1, D2), PB (D2) Timing: had multiple chances to put vote on EF on Day 2, did not until very end of day. This looks like one of the worst voting records of the people who have an EF final vote to their name.

12. Passacaglia D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1), Hoops (D1 + D2), EF (D2 - sort of) Timing; NTN votes on D1 tied it back up at 4-4 (he had voted No Lynch, then put vote back where it was when learning it was not a good option). His EF vote on D2 is muted by the fact that he illegally attempted to move his vote, failing to unvote when casting a vote for Telle. Another one of the weaker voting records with a EF vote to their name.

13. Lerriuqs D1: Pass D2: no vote Unvotes: None Timing: Day 2 vote on PB tied it at 7-7, not a good vote based on current information. Day 1 vote cast early, never revisited.

14. Dubb93 D1: EF D2: EF Unvotes: Saldana (D1), PB (D2) Timing: both unvotes came pretty early, both votes on EF were meaningful based on timing, no unvotes down stretch to help EF either time. Very good vote history.

15. Autumn D1: Telle D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D1) Timing: D2 vote on EF is strong, helping create two man race with PB. D1 unvote was very PB-friendly, moving him out of 2 vote lead to throw vote on distant candidate. One of drivers of potential 3rd candidate on Day 1.

16. Chief Rum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D1 vote was a big one against EF, D2 vote was a big one for EF. Has floated a couple of theories this game that have been dubious (EF/NTN voters with one wolf each early on, wolves would not block their own which was false on D2)

17. NTNDeacon - The Talker, Lynched Day 1

18. Telle D1: PB D2: PB Unvotes: Abe (D1) Timing: 2nd driver (w/Autumn) of 3rd candidate on D1 when there was a wolf in the mix. No good votes to help cause. Her votes have been early enough to not be magnified.

19. DaddyTorgo D1: no vote D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D2) Timing: Vote change on D2 looks good, but felt like he was looking for excessive credit for doing so when others were initial movers and shakers on EF.

20. AlanT - The Arbitrator, Night kill Day 2

21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops Unvotes: EF (D2) Timing: pretty late unvote on EF brought race back to an 8-8 tie. D1 vote was more or less throwaway on likely villager.

Hoops, didn't I vote Telle on day 1?

Barkeep49 05-15-2009 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023720)
Well, I've got PB neutral now but I will be moving him up to trusted for Day 4, barring a seer coming out gunning for him. I think that he has either been scanned or will be the next scan if still alive.

I wouldn't have said you look awful for a vote on D2, one way or the other, in a vacuum. But you had an unvote on EF and swung over to PB when they were tied 4-4 (minus your vote). Couple that with a NTN vote instead of EF on Day 1 and a vote for someone I trust today and I think you look more wolfy than most right about now.

Haven't you always said as seer you don't want to scan the controversial people figuring they'd be dead anyway? So why couldn't the seer have followed your lead?

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2023706)
I would say yes you do. As a teacher, if you have a kid who is trying to learn something, is genuinely curious, you're not going to leave them out to dry, I hope. You might point them to a resource where they can get their question answered, the analogy here being to simply post a quote of what you've answered before.


Agree to a degree, of course the rule from our special ed. district program is that if you consistently have to re-explain the same thing five or more times, you recommend the student for mandatory special education testing.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023720)
Well, I've got PB neutral


I gotta be honest and I know I purposely chopped off part of your quotation but at this point youve all got to either decide bad or good. If youve got me neutral still then just assume Im bad. Abe has the right idea.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:24 PM

BK, I don't think I've "always said" anything in regards to seer scan choices. I really don't think there is a absolute right in terms of how to play that role.

However, they certainly could choose not to scan PB. And that would end up putting me in a bad spot with my assumptions if PB is in fact a wolf. I'm willing to take that chance for a day or two, I think.

Barkeep49 05-15-2009 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023731)
Agree to a degree, of course the rule from our special ed. district program is that if you consistently have to re-explain the same thing five or more times, you recommend the student for mandatory special education testing.

But has it been the same person asking over and over again or has it been different people? Seems to me it's been a variety of people. Hence the referring the class to the resources you've already provided analogy. It's not that you didn't teach it, it was that they were too dim to learn it. You don't have to reteach it so much as provide the resources. Hence the suggestion of quoting of your own posts.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023732)
I gotta be honest and I know I purposely chopped off part of your quotation but at this point youve all got to either decide bad or good. If youve got me neutral still then just assume Im bad. Abe has the right idea.


I'll have you slotted, for better or worse, for the start of Day 4 based on the assumptions I've already laid out. For today, you are neutral because I haven't seen anyone I think is the seer gunning for you.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2023731)
Agree to a degree, of course the rule from our special ed. district program is that if you consistently have to re-explain the same thing five or more times, you recommend the student for mandatory special education testing.


Which may also explain our high special education numbers. This also may explain our 8.5% Special Ed. population.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli (Post 2023728)
Hoops, didn't I vote Telle on day 1?


You know, this is something that I was a little confused on as well. I thought that Danny's final vote count showed Abe but I thought you were on Telle.

I don't think it alters the conclusion, that you were around near the deadline on Day 1 switching your votes and that you never put EF in any danger with your votes.

Barkeep49 05-15-2009 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023734)
BK, I don't think I've "always said" anything in regards to seer scan choices. I really don't think there is a absolute right in terms of how to play that role.

However, they certainly could choose not to scan PB. And that would end up putting me in a bad spot with my assumptions if PB is in fact a wolf. I'm willing to take that chance for a day or two, I think.

How about frequently? Let's not play a semantics game here. Cause I got a thesauri and I'll find the word that expresses the fact that I accurately described your seer approach, as you admit later.

That said you see that I'm looking for a PB alternative, because I don't subscribe to that particular piece of strategy. So can you explain how saldana, or anyone else, is the best candidate? I simply haven't been able to follow along to make my own argument.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:31 PM

Anyway, I once again won't be around for the deadline. Daughter's 2nd birthday tonight, which means that my wife will pummel me for sneaking away to mess with the computer :)

I'll change the vote to Saldana because I like him as a candidate better than either Telle or PurdueBrad for today.

UNVOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE SALDANA

Poli 05-15-2009 05:31 PM

Well, 1. Danny sucks. 2. I'm not sure how to answer, "never putting EF in danger". Wasn't I on EF before I moved to Telle yesterday?

Poli 05-15-2009 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023742)
Anyway, I once again won't be around for the deadline. Daughter's 2nd birthday tonight, which means that my wife will pummel me for sneaking away to mess with the computer :)

Give her a birthday high five for me. My 33rd is Monday.

Poli 05-15-2009 05:33 PM

I'm going to watch some backlogged tv. Time for The Mentalist.

EagleFan 05-15-2009 05:33 PM

:popcorn:

EagleFan 05-15-2009 05:34 PM

It was either that or situps in my driveway.

;)

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 2023741)
How about frequently? Let's not play a semantics game here. Cause I got a thesauri and I'll find the word that expresses the fact that I accurately described your seer approach, as you admit later.

That said you see that I'm looking for a PB alternative, because I don't subscribe to that particular piece of strategy. So can you explain how saldana, or anyone else, is the best candidate? I simply haven't been able to follow along to make my own argument.


I've put out thoughts on every single person on the last page, here is the summary on Saldana:

"21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops Unvotes: EF (D2) Timing: pretty late unvote on EF brought race back to an 8-8 tie. D1 vote was more or less throwaway on likely villager."

He had the worst unvote of the day yesterday. He has cast two votes that have been throwaways. There are several people who stand out based on voting records, but his was probably the worst of Day 2.

I could probably get behind 4-5 candidates, and I had Jackal ahead of Saldana on my personal list, but I don't think that is going to happen.

In order, of the three current candidates I would prefer to see Saldana lynched before Telle before PurdueBrad.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli (Post 2023743)
Well, 1. Danny sucks. 2. I'm not sure how to answer, "never putting EF in danger". Wasn't I on EF before I moved to Telle yesterday?


A quick look at my voting chart shows you on PB yesterday. Only EF vote was at very tail end of the last minute when EF was up one and didn't have ability to save himself. I think that vote could be looked at a number of different ways.

hoopsguy 05-15-2009 05:36 PM

OK, really out now. Back after deadline.

Poli 05-15-2009 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2023754)
A quick look at my voting chart shows you on PB yesterday. Only EF vote was at very tail end of the last minute when EF was up one and didn't have ability to save himself. I think that vote could be looked at a number of different ways.

That's right, I was on PB. My bad.

Abe Sargent 05-15-2009 05:46 PM

I'm heading out with some friends. Don;t know if I'll be back until post-lynch

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent (Post 2023764)
I'm heading out with some friends. Don;t know if I'll be back until post-lynch


So does that mean all this time you were here?

Telle 05-15-2009 06:01 PM

Glad to see it's not a total run-away on me. I'll be reserving my vote for whatever self-preservation move I need to make. But regarding current vote getters...

PurdueBrad - I honestly don't know what to think of him. On Day 1 I thought he was a better lynch candidate than EF based on not much (typical Day 1), and on Day 2 I was confused by the whole Latham thing and thought it would be best to lynch him to get it figured out. But I never had any solid data against him. But now there's this hissy fit of his. I dunno.

PackerFanatic and Lerriuqs have both been very quiet. And there does come a time when you need to watch out for the "under the radar" guys. (I just don't believe that time is Day 1)

saldana - his voting record definitely doesn't look good. That move from EF on Day 2 does look suspect. And he hasn't provided any information about why he voted for me today other than wanting to make PB happy.

So out of those, I'd probably vote for saldana if I had my choice. But as I said, I'm reserving my vote until close to deadline for whatever keeps me alive.

PurdueBrad 05-15-2009 06:02 PM

I need to get in a vote today and so Ill just vote with the person that defended me some

vote jackal

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:06 PM

okay - here i am...done with dinner and ready to help figure this thing out

Telle 05-15-2009 06:11 PM

Vote count as of post #1767:

4 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
3 - PurdueBrad - Latham (1554), PackerFanatic (1661), Abe (1702)
1 - PackerFanatic - The Jackal (1637)
1 - Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
4 - saldana - dubb (1684), Passacaglia (1722), Lerriuqs (1735), hoopsguy (1753)
1 - The Jackal - PurdueBrad (1766)

Yet to vote: Barkeep, Chief Rum, Telle, DaddyTorgo

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:13 PM

i might have a thought, but there's not sufficient time to get any backing behind it tonight.

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:15 PM

I think we can almost reserve judgement on PB another day...not enamored of a vote for Telle, but the person that is pinging me a bit as wolfish is on Saldana, so I don't know...

Telle 05-15-2009 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2023779)
I think we can almost reserve judgement on PB another day...not enamored of a vote for Telle, but the person that is pinging me a bit as wolfish is on Saldana, so I don't know...


So who is it? And why do you think he's wolfish?

Danny 05-15-2009 06:16 PM

45 minutes until deadline

MartinD 05-15-2009 06:16 PM

UNVOTE LERRIUQS

This was always a placeholder vote, although I thought that it might have been more effective at getting a bit of reaction from lerriuqs.

I'll be moving my vote to one of the three main candidates soon - need a little bit of time to make up my mind.

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:18 PM

i might have a thought, but there's not sufficient time to get any backing behind it tonight.

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:19 PM

i'd like to see if anyone else comes to the same independent conclusion as me...

Danny 05-15-2009 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2023786)
i'd like to see if anyone else comes to the same independent conclusion as me...


Sorry DT, I'm not a wolf

MartinD 05-15-2009 06:28 PM

VOTE TELLE

While I have suspicions about both Telle and Saldana, I think that Telle's votes for the first two days don't look good, and I think that I've picked up a few things in her posts that don't sit quite right.

It will be interesting to see how the votes go between now and deadline...

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2023784)
i might have a thought, but there's not sufficient time to get any backing behind it tonight.


Word. There's even less time than when you posted that five minutes earlier!

Telle 05-15-2009 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MartinD (Post 2023788)
VOTE TELLE

While I have suspicions about both Telle and Saldana, I think that Telle's votes for the first two days don't look good, and I think that I've picked up a few things in her posts that don't sit quite right.

It will be interesting to see how the votes go between now and deadline...


So what's not sitting right? Give me a chance to respond.

Danny 05-15-2009 06:32 PM

Vote count as of post #1779:

5 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), saldana (1616), Poli (1633), MartinD (1777)
3 - PurdueBrad - Latham (1554), PackerFanatic (1661), Abe (1702)
1 - PackerFanatic - The Jackal (1637)
4 - saldana - dubb (1684), Passacaglia (1722), Lerriuqs (1735), hoopsguy (1753)
1 - The Jackal - PurdueBrad (1766)

Yet to vote: Barkeep, Chief Rum, Telle, DaddyTorgo

Danny 05-15-2009 06:34 PM

It's slow today

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:34 PM

hmmm. despite what i said, maybe we just need to get this thing resolved and see what we can learn from it.

i'll be around till deadline though

VOTE PURDUEBRAD


DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:34 PM

friday nights are always slow

Danny 05-15-2009 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2023797)
friday nights are always slow


But this is my game, I thought exceptions would be made.

Poli 05-15-2009 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2023795)
It's slow today

I'm watching Fringe now. I feel like the mad scientist Walter.

Danny 05-15-2009 06:40 PM

20 minutes until deadline, tick tock tick tock

Autumn 05-15-2009 06:40 PM

I'm back for just a couple minutes. Anyone want to summarize what's happened for me?

MartinD 05-15-2009 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 2023790)
So what's not sitting right? Give me a chance to respond.


Sorry for not responding sooner - got a bit of a gut feel from some of your posts on Day 1, and am looking over the Day 1 posts to find something for you to try to shoot down ;)

Passacaglia 05-15-2009 06:45 PM

I really don't see the reason to vote Telle, and I think she should live.

UNVOTE SALDANA
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Danny 05-15-2009 06:48 PM

Vote count as of post #1789:

5 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), saldana (1616), Poli (1633), MartinD (1777)
5 - PurdueBrad - Latham (1554), PackerFanatic (1661), Abe (1702), DaddyTorgo (1782), Pass (1789)
1 - PackerFanatic - The Jackal (1637)
3 - saldana - dubb (1684), Lerriuqs (1735), hoopsguy (1753)
1 - The Jackal - PurdueBrad (1766)

Yet to vote: Barkeep, Chief Rum, Telle

Chief Rum 05-15-2009 06:48 PM

VOTE SALDANA

The voting record stands out. Although I feel almost as iffy on clap as I do saldana, but clap has no votes. I'm not going to throw away my vote on a candidate in the running unless I am certain he is a wolf.

This does move it into a tie, and we don't know how that's resolved with Alan (The Arbitrator) gone. But I am okay with this, because Telle has yet to vote. I would be surprised if we ended up in a tie.

Chief Rum 05-15-2009 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2023808)
I really don't see the reason to vote Telle, and I think she should live.

UNVOTE SALDANA
VOTE PURDUEBRAD


So after all that, you end up on PB after all? If he's still around, he's just going to vote Telle, and Telle will vote PB. Then we have a tie.

Chief Rum 05-15-2009 06:53 PM

Bueller...Bueller...

Autumn 05-15-2009 06:53 PM

Well, I've got to run. IN these few minutes I can't see anything compelling enough to switch me from Telle to Saldana. I'm worried about a tie but I'm afraid of making a last second switch when I haven't read up on the thread.

MartinD 05-15-2009 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MartinD (Post 2023807)
Sorry for not responding sooner - got a bit of a gut feel from some of your posts on Day 1, and am looking over the Day 1 posts to find something for you to try to shoot down ;)


Sorry Telle - can't find anything concrete at short notice. I trust my Day 1 feeling (and your rather suspicious voting pattern) enough to be confident in my vote, though.

The Jackal 05-15-2009 06:54 PM

just watched taken, pretty good action flick

hoops - excuse me if i missed it, but i don't know if you ever answered why you have PF as trusted - i saw your explanation in your rundown of what you felt on everyone but I don't see that as clearing him, and certainly not elevating into trusted.

PB - you do realize I'm not voting for you today and have sort've felt you were good for the past day and a half.. do you really want me to vote for you?

Telle 05-15-2009 06:54 PM

I'd rather vote for saldana than PB.. but I have to protect myself.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Chief Rum 05-15-2009 06:55 PM

Okay, not leaving it in a tie. If others jump on to vote, I will switch back to saldana, my intended target. But it's 5-5, 5 mins to deadline and no one's saying anything.

UNVOTE SALDANA

VOTE TELLE


He's being a whiny biatch, but I buy the logic tolet PB go another day on the assumption the seer will have scanned him (and that seer better have by now).

DaddyTorgo 05-15-2009 06:55 PM

well i don't see any great reasoning to vote for telle, i'm a bit perplexed how saldana became a huge candidate, and frankly i don't think there's anyone whose eyebrow is raised about how helpful hoops seems to be being as much as mine is

The Jackal 05-15-2009 06:55 PM

Updated count anyone?


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