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Izulde 04-27-2019 07:21 PM

Kyler Murray, a Black Man, Was the Number One NFL Draft Pick. Trump Congratulated the Number Two Pick Instead

Trump gonna Trump.

NobodyHere 04-27-2019 07:36 PM

Eh, Trump congratulated a vocal fan of his.

Chief Rum 04-28-2019 06:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3237107)
Eh, Trump congratulated a vocal fan of his.


Yup, that was exactly my thinking when I read about this.

Not that Trump ain't racist AF, but he is ALL about people who speak highly of him.

Lathum 04-28-2019 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 3237119)
Yup, that was exactly my thinking when I read about this.

Not that Trump ain't racist AF, but he is ALL about people who speak highly of him.


Yeah. This wasn’t really a huge deal. Any normal human would realize how it would be perceived but we all know Trump couldn’t care less about that.

QuikSand 04-28-2019 08:26 AM

Right... but critics manufacturing an outrage-worthy issue out of literally everything is part of the fabric he uses to spin the whole "fake news" defense. It's counterproductive.

Thing is... what this preys on is our collective time/attention limits. Even a right-minded person who vaguely cares about our political dialogue will get caught like this. We can't afford the time to be experts on everything, we need to depend on reliable sources for help in doing that. But when information sources are so hard to sort out between the credible and non, it eludes us. So, we mostly end up gravitating to stuff we want to believe in, amplifying the already-strong confirmation bias we show up with in the first place. It's a vicious cycle.

I don't claim that it was ever a strategy, but Team Trump has certainly figured out how to use "outrage fatigue" it to their advantage.

digamma 04-28-2019 10:04 AM

I've said this before but he is an absolute first ballot Hall of Fame internet troll.

QuikSand 04-29-2019 12:53 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/29/u...fed-women.html

Good idea, look into stuff he has written and said publicly and on the record. Doing this after the nomination has been announced, very good. Very strong, very stable.

ISiddiqui 04-30-2019 01:22 PM

Biden is getting quite the bounce in the polls. A few have found him with a commanding lead. I like this Quinniapiac poll because of easy to look at breakdowns:

National (US) Poll - April 30, 2019 - Biden Surging Among Democrats | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Biden leads substantially among the moderate/conservative Dem leaners (44% of them), but among the Very Liberal Dems & Dem Leaners, Warren leads with 26% (Sanders in 2nd at 19%). The Somewhat Liberals are for Buttigieg with 15% (Warren in 2nd at 12%). Biden is also winning big among non-White Dems & Dem Leaners (42% - Warren is #2 at 11%, Harris is at 9%!). Biden also leads among Dems 40% by a greater margin than Dem Leaners (31%). Dem Leaners like Buttigieg (21%) far more than Dems (6%). The $100k+ set likes Buttigieg (17%) far more than the other economic groups. Apparently they also like Sanders (12%) more than the $50k-$100k (11%) and the <$50k (9%) groups.

Izulde 04-30-2019 01:43 PM

I wouldn't read too much into that bounce. It's just your typical post-announcement bump that will decline over the next few weeks.

ISiddiqui 04-30-2019 01:51 PM

Perhaps, but the bounce is also only slightly up from where he was pre-announcement. The interesting bits are the other folks and who gained and lost from his bounce - seems like Sanders is the one who lost people in the bounce and Warren gained (relatively).

thesloppy 04-30-2019 01:58 PM

Biden's numbers feel like some sort of bubble to me. It's only anecdotal of course (and mostly wishful thinking), but I swear I know/have heard of exactly one person in my entire extended world who is excited by the prospect of Biden running for president.

ISiddiqui 04-30-2019 02:03 PM

My Facebook page (and I am mostly friends with very left people) surprisingly have a number of people who are pro-Biden. It's mostly, I believe, because he is the highest profile moderate Democrat and there are a lot of Democrats who don't want to go too far left.

thesloppy 04-30-2019 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3237373)
My Facebook page (and I am mostly friends with very left people) surprisingly have a number of people who are pro-Biden. It's mostly, I believe, because he is the highest profile moderate Democrat and there are a lot of Democrats who don't want to go too far left.


That seems likely.

QuikSand 04-30-2019 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3237373)
My Facebook page (and I am mostly friends with very left people) surprisingly have a number of people who are pro-Biden. It's mostly, I believe, because he is the highest profile moderate Democrat and there are a lot of Democrats who don't want to go too far left.


I am hearing similar stuff from a sizable number of Democratic politicians I know. Of course, MD was a heavy-establishment Clinton state previously, so maybe that's their/our bent. Maybe proximity to DC affect?

panerd 04-30-2019 02:33 PM

Isn't it kind of like the Game of Thrones thread though? Meaning a lot of the hardcore GoT fans were upset and hated the last episode where the passive fans or fans who have never read the books loved it. Seems like the hardcore Democratic politcos don't like Biden and are more into Buttigieg or Harris or Castro while most voters are probably more like I liked Obama and Biden was his vice president so I would vote for him?

ISiddiqui 04-30-2019 02:34 PM

Buttigieg, IMO, is going for a similar moderate Democratic voter as Biden is. Buttigieg is just aiming for the $100k+ set, while Biden is aiming for the <$50k set. At least that is what it seems like to me.

thesloppy 04-30-2019 02:35 PM

I also live on the west coast which probably adds a lot of invisible bias to what I see.

I wonder how much of Biden's draw is also simply related to age. Baby Boomers seem like they can still kinda choose to be the biggest drivers in terms of raw numbers, and Biden probably appeals to the older set for all of the reasons mentioned.

Izulde 04-30-2019 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3237378)
Buttigieg, IMO, is going for a similar moderate Democratic voter as Biden is. Buttigieg is just aiming for the $100k+ set, while Biden is aiming for the <$50k set. At least that is what it seems like to me.


This. And mentioning Castro is a weird flex - he's not even able to make much of inroads in what would be a seemingly natural Latino constituency. Harris' support levels have been dropping btw. Bad CNN Town Hall where she kept deflecting questions.

ISiddiqui 04-30-2019 02:47 PM

O'Rouke is also falling a bit in these polls. Warren has gained a lot.

Though all of this is really early stuff.

Atocep 04-30-2019 02:52 PM

The polls are interesting but I don't think we'll know much of anything until after the first 2 debates in June and July at the earliest.

If I were to pick Biden or Sanders vs the field I'm still taking the field at this point.

larrymcg421 04-30-2019 03:16 PM

I think the demographic edge Biden has is the best part of those numbers. Gonna be hard for anyone to crack that. I could see, once the field narrows down, a replay of 2016, where no matter how much progress Bernie made amongst the electorate, he had no hope of winning because he couldn't penetrate Hillary's advantage with minority voters.

ISiddiqui 04-30-2019 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3237383)
I think the demographic edge Biden has is the best part of those numbers. Gonna be hard for anyone to crack that. I could see, once the field narrows down, a replay of 2016, where no matter how much progress Bernie made amongst the electorate, he had no hope of winning because he couldn't penetrate Hillary's advantage with minority voters.


Everyone else is probably looking at the minority voter numbers and are scared shitless. Biden, of course, gets the Obama carryover. Harris and Booker have to be going - WTF, esp since they seem to be behind Warren in non-white voters? Of course the debates could even that up a bit.

But, looking forward, if Biden wins South Carolina, Harris and Booker basically have to seriously think about dropping out.

JPhillips 04-30-2019 05:03 PM

Based on a Dave Weigel tweet, I wonder how many Dems are already thinking that a woman or minority can't win and are looking for the most electable white male.

PilotMan 04-30-2019 05:16 PM

I was completely wrong about the D's in 2016. So anything I say will be completely wrong. Having said that if Biden is the D choice, I don't see success in the future. We need younger candidates who aren't Boomers.

tarcone 04-30-2019 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3237391)
I was completely wrong about the D's in 2016. So anything I say will be completely wrong. Having said that if Biden is the D choice, I don't see success in the future. We need younger candidates who aren't Boomers.


Yeah, throwing up old white dudes seems like a desperate bid to win. The wants of the people be damned.

Shoot, the GOP went off track and got Trump elected. Surely the left can come up with something better then Biden or Sanders.

digamma 04-30-2019 06:41 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/u...gtype=Homepage

Thomkal 04-30-2019 07:42 PM

Well that should make Barr's testifying before Congress tomorrow a little more interesting

Lathum 04-30-2019 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3237398)
Well that should make Barr's testifying before Congress tomorrow a little more interesting


Lets not act like any of that will matter. Barr did what he was brought on to do. He got the narrative they wanted out before anyone else could come to a conclusion, thus protecting his boss. Nothing that happens from that point on matters, no one is changing their mind.

Trump has people convinced women are actually giving birth to healthy babies and then deciding if they should murder it with the doctor who delivered. Do you honestly think these people will be convinced he did collude/ obstruct after he claimed the report says otherwise?

Thomkal 04-30-2019 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3237399)
Lets not act like any of that will matter. Barr did what he was brought on to do. He got the narrative they wanted out before anyone else could come to a conclusion, thus protecting his boss. Nothing that happens from that point on matters, no one is changing their mind.

Trump has people convinced women are actually giving birth to healthy babies and then deciding if they should murder it with the doctor who delivered. Do you honestly think these people will be convinced he did collude/ obstruct after he claimed the report says otherwise?



I'm not concerned with the pro-Trump people here. The rest of us deserve to see the Mueller Report in full (minus redactions) and hear directly from the person whose name is on the report. Then we can make up on our minds on the report and just not swallow the kool-aid like Trump supporters have.

Ben E Lou 05-01-2019 05:25 AM

Someone please tell me that an aid has his phone, and that the President Of The United States has something more productive to do than spend the last 20+ minutes (and counting) retweeting 40+ (and counting) random people who claim they're firefighters saying they'll vote for him.

Edward64 05-01-2019 06:02 AM

I'm disappointed that Maduro isn't out yet and it doesn't seem as if the US is doing much to help out. I hope they finally get rid of him and the Venezuelans get a more stable government.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/201...p-news-videos/
Quote:

Video shows military vehicle running over protesters

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/polit...sia/index.html
Quote:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed Tuesday that embattled Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was preparing to leave the country for Cuba, but was talked out of it by Russia.

"We've watched throughout the day, it's been a long time since anyone's seen Maduro," Pompeo said in an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room."

"He had an airplane on the tarmac, he was ready to leave this morning as we understand it and the Russians indicated he should stay."

"He was headed for Havana," Pompeo said.

bronconick 05-01-2019 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3237415)
Someone please tell me that an aid has his phone, and that the President Of The United States has something more productive to do than spend the last 20+ minutes (and counting) retweeting 40+ (and counting) random people who claim they're firefighters saying they'll vote for him.


Nope. The Firefighters Union spoke highly about Biden, if not outright endorsed him. Therefore, Trump has to find MAGAs who claim to be firefighters who think Biden sucks. If he wasn't doing that, he'd be watching Fox and Friends so you know exactly what else he had to do.

Biden terrifies him that he'll snatch the Midwest and the Electoral College out from him.

Lathum 05-01-2019 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3237420)
Nope. The Firefighters Union spoke highly about Biden, if not outright endorsed him. Therefore, Trump has to find MAGAs who claim to be firefighters who think Biden sucks. If he wasn't doing that, he'd be watching Fox and Friends so you know exactly what else he had to do.

Biden terrifies him that he'll snatch the Midwest and the Electoral College out from him.


The character assassination that Trump is going to unleash on Biden is going to be something to behold.

larrymcg421 05-01-2019 10:02 AM

I'm not buying all of this "Dems need ____ to win" or "If Dems don't nominate ______, they'll lose". Trump is unpopular right now. Even worse, Trump is unpopular with a booming economy. He won an election by getting narrow victories in specific states. He is less popular in all of those states. Pretty much any of the Dems can win. They have the advantage. That doesn't mean they will win. But the better question is what does Trump need to do to win again.

stevew 05-01-2019 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3237415)
Someone please tell me that an aid has his phone, and that the President Of The United States has something more productive to do than spend the last 20+ minutes (and counting) retweeting 40+ (and counting) random people who claim they're firefighters saying they'll vote for him.


Executive time

Izulde 05-01-2019 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237416)
I'm disappointed that Maduro isn't out yet and it doesn't seem as if the US is doing much to help out.


I wouldn't intervene. When you start fucking with other nations' sovereignty, it ends badly for everyone.

Radii 05-01-2019 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3237426)
I'm not buying all of this "Dems need ____ to win" or "If Dems don't nominate ______, they'll lose". Trump is unpopular right now. Even worse, Trump is unpopular with a booming economy. He won an election by getting narrow victories in specific states. He is less popular in all of those states. Pretty much any of the Dems can win. They have the advantage. That doesn't mean they will win. But the better question is what does Trump need to do to win again.


I remain somewhat convinced that the turnout for Trump is going to be fairly static. He's got his base and the number of people that are just going to vote because Fox News does a great job of convincing people that if a democrat wins they're going to have to hand in their guns and be prepared for Russian style bread lines and full on communism. So if that turnout is fairly static, its really just about making sure the left turns the anger about the current situation into actual votes on a large scale.

albionmoonlight 05-01-2019 12:59 PM

To me, the big 2020 question is

Was H. Clinton a historically unlikable candidate because she was H. Clinton, or is the GOP/Fox machine well-oiled enough such that any Dem candidate will be as unlikable as Clinton by the time the election rolls around?

And I really have no idea.

digamma 05-01-2019 01:07 PM

The election is going to really square the popular vote versus electoral college issues. The Democratic nominee is going to run up massive, massive vote disparities in New York and California.

Turnout is going to matter in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia and maybe a couple of others.

I don't think it's crazy to think we could have an electoral college battle down to the wire while the popular vote is 4-6 points different.

Atocep 05-01-2019 05:39 PM

Barr's testimony today makes us look even more like a banana republic.

Apparently it's perfectly fine for Trump to try to fire Mueller simply because he didn't like the investigation.

Barr admitted neither he nor Rosenstein actually looked at the underlying evidence of obstruction in the report before making a final determination.

Trump instructing white house staff to lie to Mueller's investigators is not obstruction.

Quite a bit more, but those are probably the key takeaways.

tarcone 05-01-2019 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3237438)
To me, the big 2020 question is

Was H. Clinton a historically unlikable candidate because she was H. Clinton, or is the GOP/Fox machine well-oiled enough such that any Dem candidate will be as unlikable as Clinton by the time the election rolls around?

And I really have no idea.


To me, HRC was the most unlikable candidate ever. She lied constantly. SHe was overly arrogant. She was entitled.

I like some of the dem candidates this election. I dont watch Fox and I dont like the GOP much either.

I really disliked HRC

JPhillips 05-01-2019 06:38 PM

Barr is refusing to come to the House tomorrow because the plan is to have him questioned by lawyers and committee members. Nadler has threatened a subpoena, which could start a crisis.

RainMaker 05-01-2019 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237453)
She lied constantly. SHe was overly arrogant. She was entitled.


People who thought that then voted for Trump. :lol:

Just give us the real reasons.

RainMaker 05-01-2019 06:46 PM

I know a lot on the left don't like Biden but he's the biggest threat to Trump. He'll win Pennsylvania and has a pretty good chance of flipping Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Just feels like the electoral map is much harder with Biden as opposed to someone like Harris or Warren.

molson 05-01-2019 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3237462)
I know a lot on the left don't like Biden but he's the biggest threat to Trump. He'll win Pennsylvania and has a pretty good chance of flipping Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Just feels like the electoral map is much harder with Biden as opposed to someone like Harris or Warren.


And Biden was polling evenly with Clinton and Sanders for a while even though he wasn't in the race.

He's not exactly likeable, but he's not unlikeable, and that's more important.

Butter 05-01-2019 07:55 PM

I would've been 100% Team Biden if he had run in 2016. I believe he would've won, probably easily.

Now I'm not so sure. I'm about 90% that he's got some problematic interactions with women in his past. Plus, he is almost 80. This is before the election.

Unfortunately, I feel like his time has passed.

Edward64 05-01-2019 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izulde (Post 3237432)
I wouldn't intervene. When you start fucking with other nations' sovereignty, it ends badly for everyone.


From one of my prior posts.

Quote:

I do not believe the US should be the world's policeman but this is in our sphere of influence, they have a lot of oil, they have a legit humanitarian crisis, and its a good opportunity/relatively low risk to flex our muscle. If we are able to successfully lead the charge to replace Maduro with a friendly alternative, its the smart thing to do and will pay dividends for years in the future.

With Russia seemingly taking a more direct interest in preserving Maduro, the risk has gone up some but still a good bet to help.

Edward64 05-01-2019 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3237469)
I would've been 100% Team Biden if he had run in 2016. I believe he would've won, probably easily.

Now I'm not so sure. I'm about 90% that he's got some problematic interactions with women in his past. Plus, he is almost 80. This is before the election.

Unfortunately, I feel like his time has passed.


I do think his age will be a factor but he does seem "spry" enough right now. I would seriously consider him depending on his VP selection.

I lean away from free-money-dems and to a lesser extent, the couple of too-young-under-40. However, healthcare will be a primary platform for me.

The order of 3-4-5 may change but the top 5 so far are:

Economy, Countering China, Energy Independence, Healthcare & Immigration

What are yours?

RainMaker 05-01-2019 10:58 PM

How would you want us to intervene? Seems like we are putting pressure on them politically.

Edward64 05-01-2019 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3237479)
How would you want us to intervene? Seems like we are putting pressure on them politically.


As far as I can tell, its just words of support for opposition and vague threats to Maduro.

I don't want boots on the ground but would be supportive of funneling money, providing some sort of guarantees to military defectors etc. All this may be happening behind the scenes. I do think we could up the rhetoric some and continuously.

Radii 05-02-2019 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237453)
She lied constantly. SHe was overly arrogant. She was entitled.


Thank god we elected a president who does none of those things. Dodged a bullet there.

Chief Rum 05-02-2019 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3237495)
Thank god we elected a president who does none of those things. Dodged a bullet there.


This is why I didn't vote for either. My choice of Johnson might have been questionable for other reasons, but he wasn't really any of the above.

Unfortunately something like 95% of yall voted for one or the other idiot.

Radii 05-02-2019 02:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 3237497)
This is why I didn't vote for either. My choice of Johnson might have been questionable for other reasons, but he wasn't really any of the above.

Unfortunately something like 95% of yall voted for one or the other idiot.



Hillary wasn't nearly progressive enough for me, it disgusts me that she was so very late to come around on things like gay marriage. But I agreed with much of her platform and was proud to vote for her, not just as an anti-trump vote.

But thanks to the electoral college this is all weird and strategic anyway. You live in CA, you can vote for whoever you feel you align with best, or just stay home. Its really irrelevant. I lived in North Carolina in 2016 and that state was expected to be close. A vote for a 3rd party there from a left leaning individual is really a vote for trump. I live in Indiana now. Might as well write in one of my cats, its about as useful as any other vote I can make in this state.

The realities of our first past the post voting system are that the system is designed to give us the worst results possible, leading to an environment where it is literally impossible for a 3rd party to thrive, and where for the vast majority of the country, there are zero voting options that algin with their actual beliefs, and the real value in your vote is to vote against the worst candidate. But any changes that could be proposed to improve that system would be perceived to be more beneficial to one party, and the other would fight it so we'll never improve.

larrymcg421 05-02-2019 03:22 AM

I'm better than you because I voted third party. Haven't seen those in a while, but now twice in the last two pages.

spleen1015 05-02-2019 06:53 AM

@Radii - Indiana went blue in 2008. Maybe we can do it again to save ourselves from Trump.

JPhillips 05-02-2019 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237485)
As far as I can tell, its just words of support for opposition and vague threats to Maduro.

I don't want boots on the ground but would be supportive of funneling money, providing some sort of guarantees to military defectors etc. All this may be happening behind the scenes. I do think we could up the rhetoric some and continuously.


At this point it's all but over, but we were offering guarantees to top officials, and I'd be very surprised if we weren't funding the opposition. Bolton was tweeting to three guys yesterday offering them guarantees of no prosecution.

Edward64 05-02-2019 07:01 AM

FWIW. Stock market is up approx 30+% with the Trump presidency. Checked my 401k/IRA and yup, feeling pretty good right now.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/02/polit...020/index.html
Quote:

President Donald Trump hits a new high on his economic approval ratings in a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, reaching 56% of Americans saying he's doing a good job on the economy.

The result comes on the heels of the announcement that the US economy grew at a much better rate than expected in the first quarter, and Trump's performance on the economy becomes one of his prime selling points for next year's general election.

Trump's previous high mark in CNN polling on handling the economy came in March 2017 when 55% approved. Since then, he's edged above 50% four times, but this is the first time it's been meaningfully over the 50% line.
White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney spelled out Trump's 2020 economic message on Tuesday -- suggesting voters would still be willing to support the President even if they don't like him personally.

"You hate to sound like a cliché, but are you better off than you were four years ago? It's pretty simple, right? It's the economy, stupid. I think that's easy. People will vote for somebody they don't like if they think it's good for them," Mulvaney said during a talk at the Milken conference in Los Angeles.

The economy is the President's best issue tested in the new poll, with his other approval ratings all below 50%. Even among those who disapprove of the way the president is handling his job generally, 20% say they approve of his work on the economy. That's larger than crossover approval for any other issue by 12 points.

The President's approval rating on the economy dipped to 48% earlier this year on the heels of the government shutdown.

Edward64 05-02-2019 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3237510)
At this point it's all but over, but we were offering guarantees to top officials, and I'd be very surprised if we weren't funding the opposition. Bolton was tweeting to three guys yesterday offering them guarantees of no prosecution.


All but over meaning Maduro is gone or opposition will win?

JPhillips 05-02-2019 07:41 AM

Coup's happen fast or not at all. It's very hard to see how this ends up with Maduro gone now that he has institutional and international support. He could lose a civil war, but he's not going anywhere peacefully now.

Butter 05-02-2019 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237474)
The order of 3-4-5 may change but the top 5 so far are:

Economy, Countering China, Energy Independence, Healthcare & Immigration

What are yours?


1-5 is "not being a fucking idiot".

Chief Rum 05-02-2019 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3237501)
I'm better than you because I voted third party. Haven't seen those in a while, but now twice in the last two pages.


Deal with it, smarty pants. :wagfingers:

Brian Swartz 05-02-2019 11:23 AM

I don't think I'm better than anyone because I voted third party, but I'll be darned if I'm going to let others determine my vote which is what's always implied with the nonsense about voting third party being a vote for Trump, etc. A vote should be about what you support, not what other people are supporting. I totally disagree that it's impossible for a third party to succeed. It's not likely to happen because of the number of people who buy into the binary lesser-of-two-evils illogic, but that's primarily the fault of those people, not the system itself. Continuing to vote only for the two dominant parties does nothing more than ensure their continued dominance. Which is fine if they are doing their job reasonably well, but if they're not - well, you either tell them it's ok to not do their job or stop supporting them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight
Was H. Clinton a historically unlikable candidate because she was H. Clinton, or is the GOP/Fox machine well-oiled enough such that any Dem candidate will be as unlikable as Clinton by the time the election rolls around?


The first one. Hillary had high unlikeable numbers as far back as when Bill was POTUS. Even if you think that's unfair, it's still what her history of support is. It's possible the Democrats will find an equally unlikeable candidate, but they'd have to really work at it.

spleen1015 05-02-2019 11:30 AM

At first glance, HRC has that 'bitchy mother-in-law' look and that impression never goes away.

Brian Swartz 05-02-2019 11:32 AM

FYI my #1 is character, #2 is giving a darn about the rule of law, everything else comes after that because none of it matters much if those two aren't in place - you can say what you want but if you aren't willing to respect the system with integrity then you'll just do whatever appears most beneficial to you at the moment, which of course we've seen over multiple administrations. Trump is still in the 'wouldn't support him for dogcatcher' box - he's actually been a little bit worse than I expected and I expected very little. I'm open to voting Democratic but I think it's highly unlikely they put someone up that could in good conscience support based esp. on #2, so therefore I'll likely be looking for the least-bad write-in I can. In my state you can't just write in anyone and have it counted, the SOS has a limited list of those allowed based on whether they meet the requirements. I think there were six options last time.

PilotMan 05-02-2019 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237512)
FWIW. Stock market is up approx 30+% with the Trump presidency. Checked my 401k/IRA and yup, feeling pretty good right now.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/02/polit...020/index.html


Is it worth it if you're running trillion dollar deficits when the economy is actually doing good?

Shouldn't you be getting ahead when the getting is good, not blowing up?

No, you spend when you have money, you don't spend when you don't, that's it, right? Because that works out so well to keep an economy going.

I'm sure it'll all be fine and there will be no repercussions at all.

PilotMan 05-02-2019 11:44 AM

I wonder if we'll just send in some military advisors, just to help protect (with guidance and intelligence) the 'legitimate' leader of Venezuela? That's never lead to anything bad before has it?

QuikSand 05-02-2019 11:55 AM

Well, this happened too

Stephen Moore withdraws candidacy for Fed position | Financial Times

The shame of it is, he is patently unfit for the job on competency grounds, but likely would have sailed to easy confirmation if it hadn't been for him saying (and believing) enough batshit crazy stupid stuff to make even what passes for the GOP cringe.

JPhillips 05-02-2019 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3237532)
I don't think I'm better than anyone because I voted third party, but I'll be darned if I'm going to let others determine my vote which is what's always implied with the nonsense about voting third party being a vote for Trump, etc. A vote should be about what you support, not what other people are supporting. I totally disagree that it's impossible for a third party to succeed. It's not likely to happen because of the number of people who buy into the binary lesser-of-two-evils illogic, but that's primarily the fault of those people, not the system itself. Continuing to vote only for the two dominant parties does nothing more than ensure their continued dominance. Which is fine if they are doing their job reasonably well, but if they're not - well, you either tell them it's ok to not do their job or stop supporting them.


With first past the post, at best you'll get a replacement for one of the two major parties. It just doesn't work to have two parties with similar policy stances on major issues, eventually, those two parties split the vote and the party with opposing stances wins. That's just the way the system works. A multi-party process would require structural reforms that change our system of elections.

JPhillips 05-02-2019 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3237544)
Well, this happened too

Stephen Moore withdraws candidacy for Fed position | Financial Times

The shame of it is, he is patently unfit for the job on competency grounds, but likely would have sailed to easy confirmation if it hadn't been for him saying (and believing) enough batshit crazy stupid stuff to make even what passes for the GOP cringe.


And he probably would have sailed if Cain stayed in so that Moore could be seen as the "qualified" candidate in comparison to Cain.

Brian Swartz 05-02-2019 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips
at best you'll get a replacement for one of the two major parties. It just doesn't work to have two parties with similar policy stances on major issues, eventually, those two parties split the vote and the party with opposing stances wins


If they have similar policy stances on major issues, why the need for a third party in the first place? Isn't the whole point that they would need to be distinctive in some significant way?

Warhammer 05-02-2019 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3237548)
If they have similar policy stances on major issues, why the need for a third party in the first place? Isn't the whole point that they would need to be distinctive in some significant way?


If Democrats are socially liberal and fiscally liberal, Republicans are socially conservative and fiscally conservative, and Libertarians are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, the Libertarian candidate could peel votes from both parties.

Then it comes down to what are the main issues of the day.

Regarding structural reforms necessary, if there was enough pressure, any of these could be overturned. The bigger issue is the two main parties have brainwashed the masses that they are an either/or proposition. The people that are in power want to play by their own rules and the way they do so is by throwing up unnecessarily large barriers to entry into their game.

Edward64 05-02-2019 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3237538)
Is it worth it if you're running trillion dollar deficits when the economy is actually doing good?

Shouldn't you be getting ahead when the getting is good, not blowing up?

No, you spend when you have money, you don't spend when you don't, that's it, right? Because that works out so well to keep an economy going.

I'm sure it'll all be fine and there will be no repercussions at all.


I don't disagree.

Did Obama reduce the deficit when the economy was doing good after the GR ended in 2009 or even in his second term? Do you believe Hillary would have also reduced the deficit with a good economy? Honestly I don't think so. So call me jaded, if we are going to have deficits, I'll take it with a stock market doing well.

stevew 05-02-2019 01:13 PM

Fiscally conservative Republicans...hilarious

cartman 05-02-2019 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237551)
I don't disagree.

Did Obama reduce the deficit when the economy was doing good after the GR ended in 2009 or even in his second term? Do you believe Hillary would have also reduced the deficit with a good economy? Honestly I don't think so. So call me jaded, if we are going to have deficits, I'll take it with a stock market doing well.


Yes, the deficit did go down substantially during his term. It sounds like you are conflating a year to year deficit with the overall debt. They are two different things. A lower deficit will still cause the overall debt to rise.

larrymcg421 05-02-2019 02:00 PM

I'd certainly be more open to third parties if we had proportional representation or ranked choice (like in Maine), but even then, the Libertarians are non-starters because of their fiscal conservatism (and even their social liberalism is a "we're not against gay marriage, but it should be decided by the states") and the leftist third parties are filled with nutcases who wouldn't have a clue how to get anything done.

JPhillips 05-02-2019 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3237548)
If they have similar policy stances on major issues, why the need for a third party in the first place? Isn't the whole point that they would need to be distinctive in some significant way?


But on a lot of issues there isn't a third position that appeals to many voters. What's the third party position on abortion that isn't already close to the position of the Dems or GOP?

Gun control?

Social Security?

Taxes?

Most issues, for most voters come down to more or less, so where is the space for a third party that doesn't either make it more likely that the opposite position wins orthat one party replaces another and things return to two parties?

At best I think a third party can change the focus, but when a third party champions an issue that is largely being ignored, eventually one of the two major parties will take on a similar position as the third party.

Kodos 05-02-2019 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 3237553)
Fiscally conservative Republicans...hilarious


Yep. When was the last time we had a Republican president that didn't run up the deficit?

bronconick 05-02-2019 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3237540)
I wonder if we'll just send in some military advisors, just to help protect (with guidance and intelligence) the 'legitimate' leader of Venezuela? That's never lead to anything bad before has it?



Syria, Western Hemisphere style! Joy.

Radii 05-02-2019 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3237532)
A vote should be about what you support, not what other people are supporting. I totally disagree that it's impossible for a third party to succeed. It's not likely to happen because of the number of people who buy into the binary lesser-of-two-evils illogic, but that's primarily the fault of those people, not the system itself. Continuing to vote only for the two dominant parties does nothing more than ensure their continued dominance. Which is fine if they are doing their job reasonably well, but if they're not - well, you either tell them it's ok to not do their job or stop supporting them.


Everything you're saying should be right, absolutely. I believe that is not the reality though.

The Problems with First Past the Post Voting Explained - YouTube

If you have 6 1/2 minutes, please watch this. Its pretty light and clear and straightforward. I saw it mentioned in a reddit discussion somewhere, and it started me down a path of understanding what other voting options other countries set up to specifically avoid the fundamental flaws with our system. I used to think the exact same way as you're describing but some research was very eye opening and fundamentally changed my perspective. It may not change yours, of course, but I'd love to see your taken on it if it doesn't (sincerely, I'm not looking to argue or force anything on anyone here)

tarcone 05-02-2019 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3237461)
People who thought that then voted for Trump. :lol:

Just give us the real reasons.


I was talking to a friend today at work. He is a dem through and through. He made a great point. He pointed out that Trump told us who he was. He never lied about who he was. He may lie. But he owns his character and what he does. HRC just lied about everything.

I found that interesting.

HomerSimpson98 05-02-2019 04:21 PM

Do you work in a hipster coffee shop?

Radii 05-02-2019 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237474)
The order of 3-4-5 may change but the top 5 so far are:

Economy, Countering China, Energy Independence, Healthcare & Immigration

What are yours?


In an ideal and just world with basic protections of our nation and government in place, here is my list:

1. Climate Change - I believe the science that says we are currently close to a point of no return that could dramatically impact the survival and advancement of the human race. I deeply care about 2-5 as well but this is light years ahead of them in urgency


2. Policies that would reduce the wealth gap. Returning to a time when the top tax rate is dramatically higher than it is now. The top 1% in the united states own as much as the bottom 90%. There is enough wealth in the united states for every household to have $760,000 in wealth and purchasing power. We don't need that level of socialism, but half of the US population meets a definition of "low income" as of the 2010 census, that'll probably go up in 2020. 14% live below the poverty line. The top 1% can be rich as fuck, I don't care. But we can level the curve out just a little bit. I believe the character of our society is defined based on how we treat our most vulnerable, and we fucking suck at it right now. Universal Basic Income is a part of this too.

3. Basic Human Rights/Equality - a focus on policy AND education to normalize the treatment and quality of life of LGBTQ+ folks, women, and people of color.

4. Universal Healthcare - Medicare for all, or some new national system. I don't care, get it done. The wealth gap and the fact that healthcare is so tied to employment and so stacked against the consumer in this country is just devastating, as is the fact that something like 10% of the adult population is uninsured.

5. Policies to reduce gun violence in the United States - Mass Shootings are terrible and an inconceivable problem, but things like the overall rate of suicide drop in places with a little more strict gun control. I know there's a ton more going on here and I'm not an expert on all of it, but its an extremely important problem.


6/7 were considerations to make the list for me as well: Campaign Finance Reform and Prison/Justice System reform.


In the actual world we live in, changes to protect the integrity of our elections from foreign influence, fixing our gerrymandering problem, hostile policies aimed at subverting the civil rights act and voting rights act.. maybe more urgent, idk.

molson 05-02-2019 04:48 PM

It's disappointing to me how low climate change and conservation shows up in polls I've seen of most important issues to Democrats. It's just not going to be addressed because other things will be pushed ahead of it. I can't read about politics generally for very long without getting the nagging feeling that it's all kind of pointless if we can't make significant progress on this one bigger issue.

I'd put universal healthcare at a distant #2 because I think it addresses a lot of other issues, and combined with a guaranteed minimum income (and hopefully delaying the more catastrophic effects of climate change), is the three-tiered way we can move into the decades and centuries to come in a better place than we are now.

But then it gets weird because I'm much more conservative at heart than my young, urban, professional liberal peers once we move past those 3 things. I find the other more extreme far left economic proposals pretty off-putting. I tend to lean conservative on constitutional and statutory interpretation and other legal issues. I think the government role can in society can shrink a lot - especially if we have universal healthcare and a guaranteed minimum income. I find the way that some candidates on the left choose to vilify certain concepts and people to be distasteful. And while I understand the emotional response to things like gun violence, it impacts such a relatively small portion of our society, has been on the downswing for decades, and, at least IMO, "sensible" gun control does nothing but increase gun sales.

So I'm going to disagree with anyone I vote for on lots of lots of stuff, but, with the issues that have drifted to the top for me I can't vote for any but a small number of Republicans (and those are on the state and local level for positions that really don't have an impact on those issues, and where there's no real competent competition on the left because it's a red state).

Atocep 05-02-2019 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3237580)
In an ideal and just world with basic protections of our nation and government in place, here is my list:

1. Climate Change - I believe the science that says we are currently close to a point of no return that could dramatically impact the survival and advancement of the human race. I deeply care about 2-5 as well but this is light years ahead of them in urgency


2. Policies that would reduce the wealth gap. Returning to a time when the top tax rate is dramatically higher than it is now. The top 1% in the united states own as much as the bottom 90%. There is enough wealth in the united states for every household to have $760,000 in wealth and purchasing power. We don't need that level of socialism, but half of the US population meets a definition of "low income" as of the 2010 census, that'll probably go up in 2020. 14% live below the poverty line. The top 1% can be rich as fuck, I don't care. But we can level the curve out just a little bit. I believe the character of our society is defined based on how we treat our most vulnerable, and we fucking suck at it right now. Universal Basic Income is a part of this too.

3. Basic Human Rights/Equality - a focus on policy AND education to normalize the treatment and quality of life of LGBTQ+ folks, women, and people of color.

4. Universal Healthcare - Medicare for all, or some new national system. I don't care, get it done. The wealth gap and the fact that healthcare is so tied to employment and so stacked against the consumer in this country is just devastating, as is the fact that something like 10% of the adult population is uninsured.

5. Policies to reduce gun violence in the United States - Mass Shootings are terrible and an inconceivable problem, but things like the overall rate of suicide drop in places with a little more strict gun control. I know there's a ton more going on here and I'm not an expert on all of it, but its an extremely important problem.


6/7 were considerations to make the list for me as well: Campaign Finance Reform and Prison/Justice System reform.


In the actual world we live in, changes to protect the integrity of our elections from foreign influence, fixing our gerrymandering problem, hostile policies aimed at subverting the civil rights act and voting rights act.. maybe more urgent, idk.


I largely agree with the list although I somehow feel it's incredibly important to get campaign finance reform and gerrymandering further up the list because, without those, any list is rather pointless. I just don't know where it goes.

tarcone 05-02-2019 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98 (Post 3237579)
Do you work in a hipster coffee shop?


Nah. Dudes is a NEA guy at the state level. Cant get much more of a democrat than that.

PilotMan 05-02-2019 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237578)
I was talking to a friend today at work. He is a dem through and through. He made a great point. He pointed out that Trump told us who he was. He never lied about who he was. He may lie. But he owns his character and what he does. HRC just lied about everything.

I found that interesting.



I think that's a fantastic misconception. His biggest upside is that he's gotten you to believe who he is. He is whomever he needs to be, in the group that he's with, to get what he wants. In this case, he found a vehicle and ran with it. He never takes responsibility. He is non stop defensive aggressive. He never admits any wrongdoing. He would have no problem calling a spade a club, and telling you that you were full of shit for believing it's a spade. He is, by the very definition, the emperor with no clothes. He needs people around him to tell him that he's amazing, and he needs people to help him be who he needs to become. He doesn't own his character. He tells you your character is a lie and only he knows the truth. That's a completely different animal altogether.

molson 05-02-2019 05:37 PM

What even are the specific HRC lies that made such an impression on people?

JPhillips 05-02-2019 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98 (Post 3237579)
Do you work in a hipster coffee shop?


This takes a lot of knowledge to get.

kudos.

tarcone 05-02-2019 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3237587)
What even are the specific HRC lies that made such an impression on people?


Anytime her lips moved?

JPhillips 05-02-2019 06:32 PM

Bolsinaro of Brazil is offering refuge to the Venezuelan military members that supported the coup.

All 25 of them.

Even our supported coups are cons.

RainMaker 05-02-2019 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237578)
I was talking to a friend today at work. He is a dem through and through. He made a great point. He pointed out that Trump told us who he was. He never lied about who he was. He may lie. But he owns his character and what he does. HRC just lied about everything.

I found that interesting.


No he didn't. Everything about him has been a lie. How he made his money, how much money he has, what his understanding of policy is, etc. The guy is a well-documented con artist who told everyone he was a self-made billionaire.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237590)
Anytime her lips moved?


You don't really have an answer it seems. Just be honest about why you support him.

Ben E Lou 05-02-2019 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3237501)
I voted third party because I'm better than you.

fixed

tarcone 05-02-2019 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3237584)
I think that's a fantastic misconception. His biggest upside is that he's gotten you to believe who he is. He is whomever he needs to be, in the group that he's with, to get what he wants. In this case, he found a vehicle and ran with it. He never takes responsibility. He is non stop defensive aggressive. He never admits any wrongdoing. He would have no problem calling a spade a club, and telling you that you were full of shit for believing it's a spade. He is, by the very definition, the emperor with no clothes. He needs people around him to tell him that he's amazing, and he needs people to help him be who he needs to become. He doesn't own his character. He tells you your character is a lie and only he knows the truth. That's a completely different animal altogether.


Nicely said. This actually makes more sense. Thanks.

tarcone 05-02-2019 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3237594)
No he didn't. Everything about him has been a lie. How he made his money, how much money he has, what his understanding of policy is, etc. The guy is a well-documented con artist who told everyone he was a self-made billionaire.



You don't really have an answer it seems. Just be honest about why you support him.


I do not support Trump. I voted Johnson.

The economy is good. There seems to be a surplus of jobs. I like that.

BUT I hate our health care system and am waiting to see if Trump can deliver anything. I am against illegal immigration. Its not racist, its illegal.

I like what Andrew Yang is selling. He looks like he has some preety good ideas.

Im tried of oir 2 party system that is broken. Shoot, the democratic party stole the nomination from Sanders because they thought HRC would win. They are trumpeting an old white guy because they want to win.
Its not about policy, its about winning.

I saw a poll where 62% of dems and 52% of repubs wants new system of government. Something has to change.

The elite are killing this country. We are the only ones that can fix it.

Edward64 05-02-2019 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3237561)
Yes, the deficit did go down substantially during his term. It sounds like you are conflating a year to year deficit with the overall debt. They are two different things. A lower deficit will still cause the overall debt to rise.


Fair enough lets use debt for deficit and total vs annual. Same question?

Edward64 05-02-2019 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3237582)
I largely agree with the list although I somehow feel it's incredibly important to get campaign finance reform and gerrymandering further up the list because, without thodr, any list is rather pointless. I just don't know where it goes.


I guess you & Radii and I have pretty different priorities. Not saying its good or bad.

RainMaker 05-02-2019 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237485)
As far as I can tell, its just words of support for opposition and vague threats to Maduro.

I don't want boots on the ground but would be supportive of funneling money, providing some sort of guarantees to military defectors etc. All this may be happening behind the scenes. I do think we could up the rhetoric some and continuously.


I'm fine with helping humanitarian issues. But taxpayer funding for a regime change so that Exxon gets access to more oil isn't that appealing to me.

JPhillips 05-02-2019 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237604)
Shoot, the democratic party stole the nomination from Sanders because they thought HRC would win.


You've been shown over and over that this isn't true and you still insist on telling this lie.

RainMaker 05-02-2019 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3237604)
I do not support Trump. I voted Johnson.

The economy is good. There seems to be a surplus of jobs. I like that.

BUT I hate our health care system and am waiting to see if Trump can deliver anything. I am against illegal immigration. Its not racist, its illegal.

I like what Andrew Yang is selling. He looks like he has some preety good ideas.

Im tried of oir 2 party system that is broken. Shoot, the democratic party stole the nomination from Sanders because they thought HRC would win. They are trumpeting an old white guy because they want to win.
Its not about policy, its about winning.

I saw a poll where 62% of dems and 52% of repubs wants new system of government. Something has to change.

The elite are killing this country. We are the only ones that can fix it.


Party platforms are just a function of what people want. Their policies aren't set in stone. The Republican Party changed their foreign policy and economic platform overnight when Trump was elected. The Democrats changed their platform on gay marriage and other issues when their voters demanded it.

Clinton didn't steal the nomination. She ended up with considerably more votes than Sanders. Superdelegates are bullshit (and were removed) and they did favor her in ways. But she was winning that shit regardless.

Radii 05-02-2019 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3237606)
I guess you & Radii and I have pretty different priorities. Not saying its good or bad.


I think I've moved VERY far left in the last four years, towards what I guess would be called a "democratic socialist" though I don't really know if that's the proper label for me or not. I don't care about labels, so I haven't looked to try to assign myself, I just mostly look at issues and read up enough to figure out where I land on each issue.

But yeah, at the core I think at the bare minimum we should raise taxes on the rich dramatically and increase social programs to help assist the frighteningly large number of people living in poverty or just above it. I don't mean that if you make $1 million you are taxed 90% of it. Keep your first $10 million, but once you get over that, tax 70% of it. It's what AOC proposes, but what a lot of people don't realize, it was also pretty close to the norm until Ronald Reagan, so its not like its unheard of.

Above that though, I would look closely at the model that Scandinavian countries follow with dramatically higher taxes on everyone but quality services coming out of those taxes that allow for a basic, minimum standard of living for everyone that is acceptable for a human being. I know its not perfect, but you know that I believe we are fundamentally broken as a nation, ignoring the environment, a government that is only out to protect the people in power at the expense of everyone else, actively throwing tens of millions of people's lives in the trash because we don't care.

I still want competition, ambition, capitalism. But I believe some countries have figured out how to support that without destroying the humanity of millions right in front of us, and that matters to me. I believe the people in power in the US actively fight against that because it doesn't serve their own purposes to keep them in power and generating wealth for themselves, and somehow they've convinced enough of us to blame the poor and downtrodden for their own situations that we can never build up the momentum to try to make things better in our own backyards.


I completely understand that that I am now very far left of the average democrat, much less the average american. But I think I might just be a moderate in many European countries. It's insane how oppressive and conservative even our own "left" is compared to many countries that IMO just do it better than we do.


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