Best I can tell it’s all based on Iran’s claims but they did release a picture of one downed and it may or may not be AI.

They could have shot it down, or it could have just started raining.

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I feel like if they actually shot one down they'd be making a really big deal of it with lots of photos.

Unless the US was attacked (or arguably, Iran tries to shut down Strait of Hormuz), I would be against direct involvement.

Provide logistics, support, replenish arms etc. but no casus belli so far. Let Israel figure it out.

Just a moment...

I'm all in on this theory

Pentagon’s Pizza Index has accurately predicted 21 crises: Is WWIII next? - The Economic Times

The idea is that before any major event, the Pentagon will order a lot of pizza in order to work through the night. So if there is a spike in pizza orders around the pentagon, then something major is coming down. Also an attached theory is that bars would be less busier than usual during these events.

I came here to post this.

Multiple reports say that Trump has stopped Israel from assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei. He has forbidden them from political targets until there is a US death from an Iranian attack.

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Sounds like this latest barrage from Iran and Yemen had sone significant hits. Explosions in Tel Aviv and other areas across Israel.

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Hard to predict how this ends. There won't be any invasions, so it's just a matter of how long each country is willing to be bombed.

Iran hasn't even sent their powerful stuff. Israel is counting on the US to step in and fight for them. A war with Iran is just not something they can handle on their own.

Really not sure how it ends either. There is a sizeable chunk of MAGA that is vehemently opposed to war with Iran. Political class is subservient to Israel. Rock and a hard place. My gut says we will get involved and they just need to try and build public support for it either by waiting for an Amerocan to be killed or a false flag.

The US embassy branch in Jerusalem was hit and suffered minor damage in the latest attack. To go along with the "pizza index", large numbers of Air Force tanker flights are active right now, showing a huge movement if air assets across the Atlantic. Not necessarily an indication of moving to attack, though. Could be just moving more aircraft in to help with the interception role.

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I'm thinking Israel's main objective is to destroy Iran's nuke capabilities and won't stop until this is done. There's 2-3 sites for this and supposedly dug deep like 80+ meters.

There's speculation that this can be achieved by (1) US entering and using multiple MOABs on a target (2) Israel repeated bombing with smaller bunker busters (3) commando Entebbe-style raid now that Israel has air superiority/supremacy and after degrading Iran even more (4) "peace" negotiations e.g. give Trump his "win" (5) etc.

I can see Israel continuing to pound Iran for the next several weeks but my guess is Israel has limited runway to achieve the objective before they run short of munitions, maintenance challenges, political realities etc.

But then I can easily see Iran miscalculating by lashing out at others in the region, which the US will justify entering the conflict directly.

From DM, so take it FWIW

Pakistan 'tells Iran they will NUKE Israel if Netanyahu uses nuclear weapons against Tehran', regime officer claims in huge WW3 apocalypse threat | Daily Mail Online


Not that Israel would consider it that I've read, so I'll consider that just bluster. But do wonder how allied/sympathetic Pakistan is to Iran.

Hard to remember there was a time when twitter was a solid resource for breaking news. Now it's just a full on competition between disinformation hubs. It's impossible to trust any of it.

Working as intended.

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Russia would likely give Iran nuclear umbrella coverage too.

I was going to say that I didn't think anyone still fell for the "Iran is just weeks away from a nuclear weapon" after 40 years of that warning but apparently there are people dumb enough to still buy it.

It was actually hours away from enough fissile material for ten bombs. Apparently they do things ten at a time or already had enough for several bombs.

Must spend another trillion to protect this apartheid system for some reason.

The shelters are for Jews only, Thai workers and Palestinians 48 are not welcome.!!!

pic.twitter.com/XZrT6VeTx8
— Warfare Analysis (@warfareanalysis) June 16, 2025

Haven't seen this before. Sad but pretty interesting at the same time.

Trump just posted everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran. That's probably not good.

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And now he is leaving the G7 a day early.

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They aren’t dumb enough to drop a nuke, right? Only two things that come to mind are nuke or taking out Supreme Leader and expecting riots. Any other ideas? He hasn’t said that before so something is different this time.

"BREAKING

Fox News reports that President Trump has asked his national security team to be in the Situation Room and prepared when he returns to the White House this evening from the G7."

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It is either we are going to use the B-2's to drop the massive bunker bombs on the nuclearfacilities, or Israel is going to take out the Iranian political leadership. Could be both.

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And just on a personal side, I have a weekend planned with my buddies including my National Security friend. He just warned us he might have to go in to work some this weekend. Iran is one of his primary focus.

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"China’s Foreign Ministry is telling its citizens in Israel to leave immediately."

Ummmm....this isn't good either.

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Thanks for the updates.

Sounds really ominous.

Feels insulting that they didn't even bother to do a false flag or something to gain support for the war. No made up stories about beheaded babies to manufacture consent. Just dusted off the Iraq War playbook. Expected a bit more effort.

Trump hasn't landed yet. Stock futures are in the red around -.5% but haven't tanked.

Trump Says G-7 Exit for ‘Much Bigger’ Reason Than Ceasefire

Yeah, and the official response was essentially "sorry if your deaths were an inconvenience."

Trump just posted "we" now control the skies over Iran. Not Israel. "We."

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Would love to see a poll which breaks down education level

I don't remember what the polling was before Iraq but I doubt it was this bad. Imagine if there was an opposition party.

Does it matter? Watch how much it changes in mere days if we do become involved.

It breaks it down lib-con, so basically the same thing.

Thank God trump was elected to stop this stuff day 1.

Those protest votes continue to work out really well.

Nothing would be different there if Kamala won besides shifting the overton window even further to the right.

Never vote for people who support genocide.

This. The go-along majority does not like to condemn a conflict in which we have our soldiers in action. The first losses will evaporate any naysayers, and they won't reappear unless we start loosing big numbers.

Maybe maybe not.

I do know we wouldn't be the laughingstock of the free world. I know we wouldn't have a cabinet full of incompetent secretaries who are former FOX News hosts including a drunk leading the military and a conspiracy theorist leading the FBI. I know we wouldn't be deporting people here legally to El Salvadorian prisons without due process. I know we wouldn't have cut funding leading to the starvation deaths of millions of children ( I guess this genocide you are OK with), I know we wouldn't have a quack heroin addict gutting the HHS, I know we wouldn't have Elon wielding a chainsaw causing WAY more harm than good, I know we wouldn't have wasted tens of millions on a North Korean style military parade, and on and on and on

But by all means lets continue to focus on a strip in the middle east the size of Staten Island ( which by the way dear leader wants to turn to oceanfront condos, but something something all the same...)

But Trump wasn't able to do any of that on his first term. What makes you think he could do on his second term? (The reasoning we heard over and over again).

Yup

When you have gotten to a place of rationalizing your vote by saying "he wont really do the things he says he is going to do" you are truly fucked and we are now seeing it play out.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli defense establishment continue to believe the Trump is likely to enter the war in the coming days to bomb Iran's underground enrichment facility. Per Barak Ravid.
Just a moment...

She campaigned to the right of Trump on immigration and on being tougher on Iran. Don't forget that Democrats have been traditionally much tougher on immigration and deportation than Republicans. We were called extremists for saying "Abolish ICE".

The difference is optics. Democrats will ethnically cleanse Gaza but claim they're tirelessly working towards a ceasefire (while calling those who oppose it terrorists). They'll deport millions but do it outside of the public eye (it helps that the media doesn't care about kids in cages when Democrats do it). Every single Senate Dem voted for Rubio, so I don't understand the anger toward his deportation policy. Heck, they literally had a summit a couple weeks back talking about how it's bad to speak out against the El Salvador concentration camps.

Neither side is interested in my vote and I don't understand why it upsets people like you when people like me don't vote. Sorry running as diet Republican was a losing strategy. I'd say you should switch that up but the leaders of the party were pushing for war with Iran a couple weeks before Trump did.

I think the odds have gone up that he'll send the bunker busters.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/trum...-khamenei.html

I don't think the Khamenei survives or stays in power after this. Maybe another religious leader takes over (e.g. his son) or a military coup. Post war is not clear at all.

I may be missing it, but it's telling how there's a lack of support for Iran other than the obligatory verbal condemnations. It'll change with increased civilian casualties but looks like Bibi & Trump have alot of leeway to act right now.

If unconditional surrender is what we want I don’t think there is a way to obtain that without boots. Yea we can bomb some bunkers, kill some leaders, render the nuclear sites inoperable for the time being but that isn’t likely to make the country surrender unless we start talking some big big bombs and that would quickly turn the world against us.

Okay, maybe hours instead of days.

They don't want surrender and will never accept it. They want regime change. A regime that will be their puppet like in Lebanon, Iraq, UAE, Syria, etc and chaotic enough to keep it unstable. The ultimate goal is the expansion of Israel's borders.

So any war will be a continuation of the dahiya doctrine. Kill as many civilians as you can, destroy as much infrastructure as you can, and leave the country in a state so Israel can continue to expand and assert dominance in the region. At the cost of a trillion or so American taxpayer dollars.

Let's not overlook Israel is now restricting flights making it extremely hard for citizens of other countries to evacuate and with 700,000 American citizens in the country, granting a large portion are dual, but still. Keeping them there increases the chances of Americans being killed in the strikes which then all but guarantees we "have" to get directly involved.

I have tried to be sympathetic to Israel, but at this point fuck them and the White House puppet they play like a cheap fiddle.