Even in writing an article he reads problematic




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Cuban is accusing bitcoin bros of backing Trump because the expected chaos and inflation will boost bitcoin and ake them richer.

dola

This is terrible, but not surprising given the shitshow Secret Service has become.

I don't know how there will not be a blood bath in the Secret Service leadership. Just a shit show from the top down.

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even worse than the "I'm a MAGA kid" brat

Hey Liberals, trying to make light of Trump being shot in the ear like it is no big deal, or play up that he may not of been hit by a bullet but some other shrapnel is not the big "own" you think it is. It makes you look petty and silly. Real bullets were fired at him. People were killed and injured.

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I'm not making light, but it is weird that we never heard from a doctor or saw any medical reports. And it's very weird that the media have been silent about that.

Biden diagnosed with Covid. Symptoms are mild so far.

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"I'm not making light, but it is weird that we never heard from a doctor or saw any medical reports. And it's very weird that the media have been silent about that."

Really? Blood was pouring from his ear. Does a diagnosis matter? How?

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Medical reports for things much less serious are standard for everyone not named Trump. I don't expect any revelations, but, yes, one of the major candidates being injured in a shooting should lead to some level of medical details being reported.

dola

Never thought I'd live to see a GOP that was working towards allowing the Russians and the Chinese to invade their neighbors.

"Medical reports for things much less serious are standard for everyone not named Trump. I don't expect any revelations, but, yes, one of the major candidates being injured in a shooting should lead to some level of medical details being reported."

Seriously, that sounds as nutty as the Right wing conspiracy theories. What are you suggesting they are covering up? It was a minor wound to his ear. There isn't much a doctor's report would say more than that.

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The best thing I ever did lately was uninstall the news feed from Windows. I get upset a lot less now. I don't read all those moronic clickbait bot articles.

I'm not suggesting they're covering up anything. We used to get this kind of information as a standard. Was there a concussion? Is his hearing damaged? Were there any injuries when the SS intervened? This is all standard stuff, but Trump keeps it all secret.

everything the GOP does is subpar and halfassed....there's nothing to see here really. in fact they'll blame YOU

It would be the most Trump thing ever for him to dodge a bullet and Biden to die of Covid a week later

I heard an expert today say even if his ear was grazed it would have been shredded.

Who do you think is in charge of the Secret Service?

It wasn't GOd that deflected the bullet btw, it was Satan. CHeeto made a deal with him to go out the Cheeto way...in a hotel with a hooker ODing on blow.

I cant imagine even mild to moderate covid will be helpful for Bidens energy and ability to campaign. Perhaps he can use this as a reason to go out with an excuse.

"Who do you think is in charge of the Secret Service?"

Obama, obviously.

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Wow.
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/18...qcAoLrBDQ&s=19

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He definitely can, but I doubt very much that he will. Everything I've read says that even Democrats who want him to drop out think the wind has been taken out of that sail.

I don't think those sails have totally lost the wind.
https://x.com/brianstelter/status/18...XtHjE51Ig&s=19

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My wife pointed out this morning that Vance's wife is Indian, which I didn't know but we both thought was interesting and funny as hell given, well, MAGA, and this evening I saw a Newsweek article about MAGA attacking her with racist comments.

Between that and inviting Netanyahu to cut a campaign speech for Trump on the floors of Congress next week, I think Schumer may want to move on from Biden.

Biden is reported to have the co-vids now.

Schumer and Jeffries were fighting with the DNC today as well, trying to stop them from having a phone roll-call nominate Biden before the convention.

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Yeah, Harrison was on Twitter yesterday lying about why they needed to get the nomination in before the convention. Good lord how did he get put in any position of power in the party? What a shitshow.

Lol
https://x.com/MeghanMcCain/status/18...I3bPVnmxg&s=19

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Uhhhh....
https://x.com/kasie/status/181372627...5iA2861xQ&s=19

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This is good. Ween her off the benzos a bit and she can be competitive.

VP on Vance: The is a fellow who in the Senate participated in blocking protections for IVF. This is an individual who has said he is for a national abortion ban. pic.twitter.com/c3qIPiSVaE

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 17, 2024

Good Lord the GOP is killing it. The guy who spoke about his son being killed at Abbey Gate and reading the names of those killed was really powerful.

Now granted, the guy they support is a 5 times draft dodger who called POws suckers and losers and questioned why anyone would join the military, but it doesn't matter. They love him.

He is so cooked

Biden should drop out, nearly two-thirds of Democrats say: AP-NORC Poll | AP News

Yeah, they're killing it -- their speeches have included a Gov and his dog, an OnlyFans model/rap girlfriend/reality show person (with forehead tattoo), a daughter of reality show couple who are in jail for 20 years on fraud, a couple of sons and daughters (who aren't interesting enough for Dad to stay awake during), and now...Hulk Hogan. Yep, they are killing it.

Re: the second link. I am fine if he drops out (though still think they are ignoring a lot of voters, mostly Black). I'm also with him if he runs. Can do both!

My favorite moment so far is the awkward silence after the Trump, Trump Baby rap video played.

I doubt it happens, but Biden leaving the race 15 minutes before Trump's speech would be perfect.

You're seeing what you want to see if you don't think they are killing it.

And baby dog is awesome.

Nobody but partisans watches conventions anymore, so none of it matters.

Perhaps, but putting parents of veterans killed by immigrants and soldiers killed under Bidens watch after he claimed no service members have been killed during his admin is very powerful.

especially in contrast to a drooling vessel of a man who will be at the DNC.

Now do Covid families. Or victims of mass shootings.

Whats your point?

If you don't think those parents resonate with a large audience you're not paying attention.

There's nothing that can be done for the people that don't understand that was forced on the Biden administration by Trump in a deal he made with the Taliban that released 5,000 captured taliban and that he wanted to negotiate with Taliban leadership at Camp David on the eve of 9/11.

Those people will get worked up by anything.

It matters from the standpoint of turnout. Specifically, Bulwark pointed out today that the basic difference between Trump 2016 and Trump 2020 was white male turnout. He's doing well with that group right now.

Yes, I just don't think anything that happens at the convention is making any difference. Persuadable voters aren't watching two hours a night of the convention.

Everything is so partisan right now very little matters. The debate didn't really move polling and so far the assassination attempt hasn't shown up in polling either. The RNC certainly isn't changing anything.

You're right, but you can bet your ass they are hearing the soundbites...

No point I guess. I suppose these stories - which are sad, yes - work on those same types who get choked up the 1,000th time the news plays a clip of a service member making it home unexpectedly for a graduation ceremony or differently-abled person making basket/scoring touchdown.

(But those other sad stories, they can go screw.)

If only we had a candidate who can point out these things instead of incoherently mumbling for twenty seconds then losing his train of thought and starring into the abyss with his mouth open

I think it resonates with a lot of parents and people with military ties as well.

Covid is 4 years ago. Dems need something new. Running on Donald Trump is bad isn't going to work like it did in 2020, not with Biden on top of the ticket.

dola- I live in a pretty red town and the last few years have noticed a sharp decline in Trump flags, lawn signs, etc...just in the last few days I have seen several reappear. People are fooling themselves if they don't think there is a renewed enthusiasm.

Thr GOP will always rally around their candidate. It's a completely different mindset when you see the opposing party or anyone that isn't on your side as an enemy.

This is what they're doing to keep people in line. This person is running in a very important House race in a very important state. She is the frontrunner but Dems were fine sabotaging her campaign over Biden.




Some high ranking dems are apparently telling people they think Biden drops out this weekend.

Everything looks like there a concerted effort by the Democratic leadership to get Biden to step aside. These purposeful leaks (today it is both Pelosi and Obama) seem pretty calculated, and seems to have stemmed from the fact that Schumer and Jefferies encouraged Biden this weekend to step aside, and instead his people pushed forward with the attempt nominate him by phone vote before the convention. Once the DNC said they were going forward with that vote, these steady stream of leaks came out.

They wanted/want Biden to make this his decision. The most palatable way for this to happen is for him to seemingly come to the conclusion himself. But his people and his family are refusing to play along. Now the question is can leadership put enough pressure on him to change his mind, or do they have the guts to forcibly remove him. I don't know about the former, but I will guess the answer to the latter is no.

He honestly should do it this evening and steal all the thunder from the RNC.

Yeah, that extra year vs Afghanistan makes all the difference.

I can see it now too from the media if he does drop out.

"This smacks of desperation from the Dems."

This NBC article makes it look pretty bleak.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...eps-rcna162494

"A sense of reality is beginning to wash over some of the president’s top campaign lieutenants, who have endured streams of phone calls from donors and one-time supporters flagging that they cannot back Biden.A person who spoke with a senior campaign official said a sense of a new reality has fallen over the campaign.
“They’re finally realizing; it’s a when, not if,” the person said."


It says fund raising has dried up to point that they only expect to raise 25% of their goal. Money usually makes things move.

Dems stopped caring about those things in January 2021, so I'm not sure they'd get much traction on the issues.

The Afghanistan withdrawal was a good move and it is unfortunate that he is getting roasted for it. But maybe it's karma for other horrific acts he's committed that he is not being attacked for.

I really hope they are not trying to delay so the DNC can select the nominee. There is no way that will go over well.

While there is no way to do a quick primary, released delegates selecting the nominee at least respects the primary process.

I know this was in response to a completely different issue, but I'm quoting it just to say that I find it hilarious that some people are suggesting Biden's sudden Covid diagnosis is the precursor to an announcement he's stepping aside, to use it as an illness excuse.

If this was 2020, totally believable. But it's 2024 - people are treating Covid like the common cold these days. If Biden used a Covid diagnosis as his excuse to pull out of the presidential race, he might as well just say he fell off his bike and scraped his shin. They both heal up in about the same time.

Now, I guess if they make up some excuse like it's hit him so hard that he won't be able to effectively campaign for weeks, I guess that's plausible. But then... let's see the medical records, because it still seems far from likely. And, doesn't that imperil the rest of his current term if it's THAT bad?

So if Biden steps aside does it just go to Harris or do others jump in? They could have a debate in early August I suppose. I'm assuming Biden endorses Harris. Not sure if a Harris-Shapiro ticket could win but at least it'd have a much better chance. Even in these bad Biden state polls Trump seems to only hit the mid 40s.

Is Shapiro or Beshear or any other currently elected officials going to resign to run for VP in this race? I assume most of these states have similar laws that require someone to resign their current state position to run for another office?

I feel like this is that old Greg Giraldo joke - in this economy? You want me to resign as governor of my state to be Harris's VP in this race?

I believe only Harris can access the war chest. I find it hard to believe anyone else could start from square one fundraising at this point.

Others could step in, but I doubt anyone high profile will because:

1) They probably view this as a lost cause. Harris losing will clear the field for 2028.

2) The one thing Biden's campaign has done well is fundraising. Harris can access those funds, while others cannot. Anyone else will need to figure out fundraising from scratch.

538 still has it as a toss up. Problem is Biden is going to continue to deteriorate.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight

So many things are going so well for the GOP right now - with the media coverage, polls, etc., backing it up - that, whether it's Biden or Harris or whomever, if Trump DOESN'T win, J6 is going to look like an elementary school food fight by comparison, I fear.

I only see five states with a law like that.

Resign-to-run law - Ballotpedia.

It will almost definitely be Kamala. I do wonder if someone might throw their hat in the ring. It most likely won't be someone like Newsome or Beashar. It will probably someone along the line of Dean Phillips, who will be pretty easily swatted away.

A buddy of mine said Biden should drop out then run 3rd party

It has to be Harris at this point. A strong VP pick could at least give her a chance. Shed need some things to break correctly over the next few months as so far everything has broken for trump. But I do think she (or anyone else really) will at least give dems a feeling there is a chance (where there is none now.

Harris also has nothing to lose. She wont win the party nomination in 2028 coming off a loss with Biden so its now or never for her.

Newsome is going to try to get in. Not sure how he'd fare in the states that are most important (Midwest, Rust Belt). But he's charismatic and youthful. Shapiro would win the election I feel pretty easily. Pretty confident about Whitmer too, especially if she can turn it into a race about abortion rights. And I'd bet on Beasher since he's a boring moderate and that's probably enough for some people.

Kamala being the candidate is likely the choice just because Dems are dumb. I'd give her a better shot than Biden just because she can actually talk. Her VP would be interesting because I don't know if someone like Shapiro or Whitmer would want to be in that spot since they'll be frontrunners in 2028. Roy Cooper from NC (who is term limited now) or Tim Walz would be safe options as a VP.

Democracy is going to end in America b/c cable news needed to goose ratings. 🙃 pic.twitter.com/4Ed3McyGWC

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) July 18, 2024

At least they won't let it be a runaway. No way the media goes with a narrative in July that it is decided when they still have Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov to fill time.

I don't think she would need all that much. She obviously would need to avoid a "deplorables" moment but people are begging for a candidate they can vote for and the contrast between her and Trump would be stark.

You say that, but I don't think Newsome would be interested in getting the nomination this way. Anyone but Harris comes in handicapped (the aforementioned fundraising) and as basically a spit in the eye to Black voters who are the most important voting block in the party. It is not "dumb" to not want to piss off the block of people you couldn't win a single election without.

Lots of people have been hyping that video where Harris supposeldy smacks down JD Vance, but it seemed uninspiring and entirely unremarkable to me.

..but I suppose that's typical for political news. "Congressman X BRUTALLY ROASTS Congressman Y" then you read it and the rosting was something like "I disagree"

Think it has more to do with Democrats running an unpopular 81 year old candidate with dementia. If your election hopes hinge on what CNN will say about you, I think you're running a bad campaign.


Dems won't succeed till they drop all the excuses every time they lose.

I agree. I think you need a VP that has strong appeal along what Rainmaker is mentioning but I think you have to go Harris at this point.

The money thing isn't an issue. They can just transfer it to the DNC.

I also don't know how popular Kamala is in the community. She was polling so poorly in the primaries that she dropped out early. So it seems like a small percent if that. And there are white candidates in all those swing states who are just torching Republicans.

Dems should run the candidate who polls the best and has the best track to win the election. Nothing else matters.

Interesting. I thought way more states had those laws than actually do. Of course, I went to law school and worked in government in FL, so I guess my perception is skewed. As far as Beshear, I might have confused this issue with him categorically stating that he would be governor through his term (a self-imposed "no resignation").

That's surprising. Biden is trailing in the national polls by about 3 points now. To put that in perspective, on this date in 2016 Hillary had a 3 point lead, and on this date in 2020 Biden had a 9 point lead. So he's underperforming his 2020 status by about 12 points right now. If that trend holds, it translates into an electoral college landslide for Trump.

Then it would still be Harris. She also wins the polls of who Democrats want to replace Biden with. Newsom is not that popular.

Newsom is indeed not that popular. Very smart and a good talker but comes across as slimy.

Yeah, I wouldn't want him to be the replacement. Someone more centrist to appeal to voters who don't like Biden or Trump and who just want a reasonable, qualified candidate.

Harris didn't have a great campaign in 2020. She was a front runner for about half a second, then her campaign made some blunders. Hopefully she learned from that. There is hardly anybody that doesn't fail in their first Presidential nomination run, so it is not the most disqualifying. What hurt her most was people wanted something close to a sure thing, and Biden was that. Now that she has been VP for 4 years, that should close that gap. I do worry that can she come off as off-putting sometimes.

Yeah, I was surprised by that also.

Kind of a BS process when one side has to get 3-4% more of the vote total to win

Must be a different group of Democrats than the ones who gave Harris single-digit support in the 2020 primary, forcing her to drop out after falling to eighth place.

Mark Kelly would be a dream

If you haven't noticed, it 4 years later. Peoples opinions change, as well as the situation. She was not the sitting Vice President 4 years ago, and was relatively unknown outside of California going into the race.

They're actually leaning more in Biden's favor; about a week ago they had it ever so slightly favoring Trump, and now it's been about 53-54% Biden. On the national polls ... are you looking at different data than I am? There's a lot of Trump +1 or +2 numbers out there.

As I mentioned further up in the thread, 538 is expecting the polls to slide some Biden's way though based on the 'fundamentals', i.e. super-low unemployment, incumbent bias, etc. You don't typically get very far saying 538 is wrong but I don't buy it in this case. I do think the consensus in this thread that Trump is way ahead is just ... not borne out, but 538 is also saying Biden has a 60% chance of winning Michigan with all of the high-quality polls favoring Trump by about 3 (a couple of lower-quality ones notably say Biden is ahead), they've got Biden 53-47 in Pennsylvania despite every poll in the last month favoring Trump and most by 3-5 points ... so right now I'm just not buying their explanations.

Just to add to that, a curious breakdown they have, this one on Pennsylvania. Predicted margin by:

- Polling average: R +3.6
- Adjusted polling average: R +3.9; adjusted for 'similar states' and 'conventions'
- Forecast of Election day polling: R +3.9
- Fundamentals only: D +1.0
- Full Forecast: D +0.6

Full forecast also includes some adjustment for the possibility polls are systematically off for one candidate. But it looks to me like they are basically saying the polls don't matter much and the 'fundamentals' will determine the next president. I just ... I think they're missing the forest for the trees.

Weird.

My wife is at Newark Airport and said Trumps plane is there

I think Tim Ryan of Ohio, who was a US rep and had a close loss to Vance in the 2022 senate race would be a solid choice. Good with unions, another pro-choice Catholic (like Biden), and a centrist from the rust belt. Plus, he’s available. 51 years old.

For VP with Harris, I mean.

538 no longer has Nate Silver and got rid of most of their staff. It's the guy from the Economist who now runs the models and he's not a statistician. Silver and him have a running feud because the new guy doesn't really believe all that much in polls.

Apparently Jamie Raskin has been pressuring Biden too. At this point it really seems inevitable and every day he waits is time lost.

I didn't hear it live but just heard that in his interview with BET he forgot Lloyd Austins name. Thats pretty bad.