I have to point out that the two possible wolf-wolfs were the same both days, so the fact that it happened twice isn't at all surprising.

So last night I am deep in this poker tournament, like 30 left out of 2000. I get AJ in the BB. Small blind min raises and I reraise. He calls. Flop comes J J A, pretty sweet, flop a boat. He bets out, I reraise and he puts me all in, obviously thinking I am making a move. I call and show my boat. He has KQ suited for flush and straight draws, neither good for him because I already made the boat. Guess what the next 2 cards are. King and a King giving him a bigger full house. Do you know what the odds of that are?

Man, it takes forever to catch up on all of this stuff. Is anyone else having difficulty keeping up with the pace of this game? Is it just me?

Wow, Lathum...that is just downright unlucky.

I'm sorry, did you think I was talking to you regarding the odds Lathum? Sorry, no, wasn't.

It's going a little fast, but I was also gone all night last night - doesn't seem much worse than other games.

The criticize of EF points me to the conclusion that we were even more likely wolf-wolf. That move reeks of desperation

So I'm not allowed to respond then?

I'm sorry, frustration or not, you are way to nice a guy to be acting like this. It all seems to contrived. And if it's not you are off my Xmas card list.

yeah, considering there were only 30 people left in the tourny, I would have been close to the chipleader.

30 pages of posts by the end of Day Two? that doesn't seem fast to you?

Nah, not that nice a guy obviously. I'm pissed at myself for wasting two days this game and now this morning. I'm out, start the run.

The problem with running those numbers is that it is not in a vacuum. We already have wolf/villager revealed, so I think it is just a matter of probability that you are wolf/villager based on assumptions on their numbers.

Assuming 4 starting wolves, out of 21, with EF already revealed, that leaves 3 of 20 = 15%.

Again, Day 2 we already have a wolf in the mix so it is 3 of 19, or just a bit higher than 15% (don't have Calc open).

I'm all for math for solving problems, but I don't think that the context you are proposing (that we don't know NTN = villager and EF = wolf) makes all that much sense.

probably about the same as you bothering to call or text me to tell me not to bother to wait for you to roll last night since you were playing poker instead of WoW?

heh, I just realized that PB isn't even in the lead right now -- Telle is up on him 3-2.

umm, are you my wife or something? ;)

Unless you were up playing WoW at 2 AM I think it's irrelevant.

i agree that PB's frustration, which is totally understandable...i have been in the same spot you are in now and wanted to kill everyone...does seem out of character for what I know of him as a normally a level headed, easy going dude (but i also havent been around much lately)

i dont necessary know if i would call it contrived.

perhaps this will make him fee better.

vote telle

Well it certainly doesn't make ME feel better.

I realize according to PB I'm dense, but I must have missed why people suspect Telle. I just don't see it.

True - but these games always have a lot of posts, I just come to expect it I suppose.

Anyway, I'm off for now.

I think we clearly have at least five starting wolves, plus the sympathizer. EF had a non-listed role.

Vote count as of #1620:

4 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)

I'm eager to see some more votes today. I'm not crazy about the company I'm keeping at this moment, and maybe I'm on the wrong person.

Okay, off for real now.

Didn't purdue vote pass?

Thank you I missed that. He did in post #1578.

Yeah, he did. Which is odd that I made it so high on his distrust list, since he was so willing to follow my thoughts yesterday. Looking through Day 2, I noticed this:


Thoughts?

What is the case against Telle, exactly? I remember people were throwing her around as a candidate yesterday afternoon but there's too many pages for me to go digging.

Page 26 is where I "started" the votes for her on Day 2. Poli mentioned her, based on PB saying something was weird about her reaction with ntn on Day 1. However, PB doesn't have his vote on her now, even though it would help his self-preservation (of course, it's probably too early to worry about that).

I'm also kind of curious about the case on Telle. She had posted that she thought NTN was getting a raw deal on Day 1, which was part of the notion to introduce a 3rd candidate alongside NTN/EF. However, if she was posting on behalf of NTN while trying to save EF then that is a pretty nuanced play. Bravo if that is what happened, but my take on it was that she was playing it the way she stated in the thread.

I'm hoping to be around most of the afternoon to look at voting records, but I don't recall Telle doing anything highly noteworthy in either direction on this end. Back to meetings ...

It started with PurdueBrad thinking I was protecting ntn.. but then ntn came up good. So then it was speculated that maybe I was protecting EF. Both days I didn't like the cases against EF and decided to go PB instead. But lots of other people didn't vote for EF either. So, I dunno why people think I'm the worst out of the bunch.

Following logic - that might be the first time anyone's said that about me.

Fun, dramatic Poli - That sounds more like it.

Vote Telle

Seems like the right move to me.

Why does it seem like the right move?

As of post #1633:

5 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)
1 - Passacaglia - PurdeuBrad (1578)

I haven't been a fan of Telle's responses since I saw her jockeying around PB a few days back.

I don't have strong feelings towards voting for PB or Telle, so I'm going to vote for someone who's posts have been pinging me. I'll switch if this doesn't develop but maybe someone else feels similarly.

He voted NTN day one and put a vote on EF putting him in a 6-5 vote lead yesterday, but also before PB had switched onto EF, so could've been a necessary wolf on wolf there.

VOTE PF

I don't get the Pass vote, though. Whether he intended to or not, he played a critical role in the lynch of EF.

I can't recall a single PF post in the game, actually.

He has a fair few, but he's been quiet enough. Not like this game is deep in or anything, though.

If you think it was wolf-wolf yesterday why not just vote for PB?

You know, I was just going to mention that - I have barely posted this game, haha.

No I mean wolf-wolf as in PF on EF. That would be assuming PB is good - if they're both wolves then it doesn't really matter, but I lean towards PB not being a wolf.

But I do understand and sympathize with the need to know whether or not PB is good for better vote analysis.

I don't really see that -- I really intended to unvote EF, and I don't think I should be moved up a notch just because I flubbed it. And I think intent is more important than where my vote actually got recorded in the end.

That was a poor choice of words, don't take that to mean I'm the sympathizer or anything.

Yeah, I was rethinking that as well.

But it's still a bad vote, since I'm good! :)

lol

I never voted for PB on Day One.

Heh...self corrected. Ignore me above.

I'm not sure about who I want to vote for today, so am going to go with the tactic of picking on someone who hasn't posted much to this point...

VOTE LERRIUQS

I realise that it's a bit rich for me to do this, given that I'm fast developing a reputation as someone who doesn't post all that much, but this is very much a placeholder vote at this point (and an effort to get lerriuqs a bit more involved in the game) than a vote backed up by something I've seen or any intuition.

The easy play right now (in my opinion) would be to jump on the bandwagon with Telle's name on it - while I do have some suspicion of Telle (some of her earlier posts didn't sit quite right with me - can't back it up right now, as I don't have time to go through previous posts at the moment) I'm not sure that I feel strongly enough to put the front-runner further out on their own.

I will be back on later, and am very likely to change this placeholder vote.

Oh my god am I having problems.

did we break for the weekend already?

i'm not feeling strongly inclined to vote for telle.

although it's probably too late given how friday afternoon and evening deadlines go, i'd love to see some action this afternoon and uncover some more info

So should I run the night deadline tonight or on Sunday?

Be spontaneous, run it in 12 minutes from now!

i think you have to ask the wolves that danny - we are the ones trying to uncover them after all

I would say run it tonight so everyone gets to think about what's happened over the weekend.

ooh I like this, you guys better get those actions in ;)

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I want to make sure I get a vote in. I do not feel we learn as much from Telle as we do PB at this point.

Uh, weird.

Ellipses edited for dramatic effect? haha

One of you sure is, that's for sure

I think some of you just didn't want to see him go :)

UNVOTE CORPSE OF ALAN T
VOTE PURDUEBRAD


So seriously...is that in any way actually related to the game?

No related in anyway whatsoever, just playing off of Alan T's suggestion to run the night phase in 12 minutes. Plus it's slow, so I wasn't interrupting anything

That;s how I plan on spending my weekend!

You guys better spend the weekend playing, thinking, fanatsizing or something about my game

OK, seems like a really dull day so far. Time to catch up on votes and start working on where I want to go wth my vote.

Apparently finding defiled corpses is dull to you :eek:

Is the logic for Telle still that she may have been protecting a villager in NtN? Now that EF is out as a wolf that seems like even sillier logic that if Telle is a wolf she would have been protecting NtN rather than EF. If the reasons for the Telle vote has more going for it please fill me in.

I actually could rant some more, but I figure that I've mostly made my point, and I'd give people a chance to catch up.

I believe the thinking is that she knew ntn was a villager and chose to defend him so that she would look better when he came up good. However, I think the fact that EF was a wolf and at risk of getting lynched himself makes that a hard sell, IMO.

hoops, while you're around -- do you know how hard it would be to get tickets to Michigan @ Illinois on 10/31? I'm trying to decide between buying Michigan season tickets and selling like 6 of them, or taking the easier route and just seeing them at Memorial Stadium, where I've never been.

I'm close to just voting PB out of spite. He went into the vent thread, vented, then edited it with reasons of "Cleaned up out of respect for BK as a mod (and no, he didn't ask me to)."

I don't think there's any rules against editing in the vent thread.

Rules suggest that not all wolf roles have to be listed. Could certainly be five, but I'm not ruling out 4 + Sympathizer just yet unless someone has seen something I haven't.

Er, not all listed wolf roles have to be in game.

No, but he seems dead set on dieing and is really starting to piss me off the way he has acted in here today and then the way he acted in the vent thread.

Probably can get them without too much effort. I think the Illini sold out most of their games last year after going to Rose Bowl previous year. But traditionally the stadium is not sold out every week and I don't think there is a ton of buzz around the program this year.

I'm actually not sold on PB or Telle at this point. I think I am going to go a different direction.

Vote Saldana

Threw his vote away on me on day 1, then on day 2 voted EF, but switched off to Hoops once EF was in the lead dropping it down to a tie. I'm not a fan of his vote record at all.

Voting action through Post #1683:

Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
PB - Pass (1548), Lathum (1554), PF (1661)
Pass - PB (1578)
PF - Jackal (1637)
Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs

Go for it. Look, here's an explanation for "the way [I've] acted in here today." I have 200 posts, most defending myself. A simple search turned up 39 posts that stated the exact piece of information that I was being asked to repeat again. Did I really need to repeat it for a 40'th time? And, since I have no role of real power, do I really have anything to add at this time? Hopefully that gets my frustration across.

I think this is a better vote today than PB. And I understand this vote more than I do the logic on Telle.

Sounds familiar over here, and is probably the only reason I'm able to buy season tickets this year without making a donation (which probably means I won't be able to scalp the tickets for games I'm not going to with any kind of ease, either). The Michigan Ticket Office said they weren't sure if they would have tickets to sell yet, but maybe I'll find out when Illinois starts selling their single-game tickets.

not entirely unexpected...my vote record is trash, especially yesterday.

as far as day one goes...i voted for you the same way you voted for me, then took my kids to the park and forgot to come back and see if it was necessary to change to a target that was actually in the run-off.

you frustration has been gotten across :)

Why do you think this is a better vote than PB? I might be convinced to join the newly-forming saldana bandwagon, and if you've got a reason that a vote for sal is better, I'm all ears.

1. Claphamsa D1: PackerFanatic D2: Telle
2. EagleFan - Evil Information Collector, Lynched Day 2
3. Barkeep D1: NTN D2: Telle
4. The Jackal D1: NTN D2: PB
5. Abe D1: NTN D2: PB
6. PackerFanatic D1: NTN D2: EF
7. Hoopsguy D1: EF D2: PB
8. PurdueBrad D1: NTN D2: EF
9. Lathum D1: EF D2: PB
10. Martin D D1: PB D2: EF
11. Poli D1: Abe D2: EF
12. Passacaglia D1: NTN D2: EF
13. Lerriuqs D1: Pass D2: no vote
14. Dubb93 D1: EF D2: EF
15. Autumn D1: Telle D2: EF
16. Chief Rum D1: EF D2: PB
17. NTNDeacon - The Talker, Lynched Day 1
18. Telle D1: PB D2: PB
19. DaddyTorgo D1: no vote D2: EF
20. AlanT - The Arbitrator, Night kill Day 2
21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops

OK, here is first-level thinking on EF - the people who have not voted for him either day. Note that I do not think that this is at all a perfect list, but I'm hoping the 2nd level list is a little more revealing:
1. Clap
3. Barkeep
4. Jackal
5. Abe
13. Lerriuqs
18. Telle
21. Saldana

hoops, I think it's only fair to include me on that list, since I meant to vote Telle Day 2.

Pass, I've pulled my PB/today thoughts from earlier to answer your question.

Level 2 list is going to try and dig a little deeper - timing of votes, unvotes, etc.

Ha! Have fun with that one!

Thanks...sorry to make you repeat yourself.

No worries, lots of posts over course of the game. Heck, lots of posts even if you were just searching for mine.

Hmm, really need spreadsheet format for Level 2 post, as it is going to be messy otherwise.

Anyway, you're not worried about the possibility of him being the cunning?