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-   -   Werewolf XCVIII - 24 Day Game Over - Post 2899 (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=73316)

claphamsa 07-08-2009 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2067178)
I disagree -- it looks there's a lot of movement in the voting record, even if you take out any effect that DT had on it.

yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:16 AM

i need to make an excel spreadsheet of what everyone says their roles/powers are because going back and forth to my pile of PM's is becoming tedious

Danny 07-08-2009 08:17 AM

Dt, did you get my question about EF? Do you feel really good about trusting him?

Alan T 07-08-2009 08:18 AM

I have never seen the show 24, but Claphamsa I am assuming has a role on the show that likes being overly argumentative about everything. Who would that be in the tv show? :) :)

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067183)
yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.


I don't know how much clearer I can put it. There is info there, even if you *take out* any effect that DT had on it. By this, I mean that there were votes made before people followed DT on KWhit. Some of those were people following DT on ntn, but even if you take THOSE out, there are still other votes there for us to analyze.

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067183)
yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.


there's plenty of movement in the voting record even before i endorsed KWhit - the moving of BrianD multiple times, and the double run-up-and-down on NTN (how rare is that btw...crazy swing) among other things.

And if you read close enough Clap I did present several options based on what people PM'd to me (one of which was you let's not forget) and people were free to ask me questions/discuss with me/offer their opinion as to which of those options (fully disclosed that i was acting based on my read of PM's people sent to me) we should pursue for the day. I was what...the 5th vote on KWhit? At that point there was

a) sufficient other momentum moving towards him (votes 3,4)
b) it was later in the day
c) he was one of the three viable candidates
d) I made a gut-decision based on the info that I had

So trying to paint it as some sort of dictatorial move by me is pretty incorrect. And trying to get me worked up so that I get emotional so that people think that if/when my vote ends up on you today/tomorrow that it's a personal vendetta is not going to work either.

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2067186)
Dt, did you get my question about EF? Do you feel really good about trusting him?


I don't feel that his dissapearance is related to whether he is good/bad if that is what you are getting at. It's related more towards the character that he is. But that character could be either good or bad.

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067182)
wait... what? we have no meaningful voting record.. since it was an unopposed stampeded. and DT got Kwit lynched for nothing. he should have said, Kwhitt has told me he is a vanilla villager....so it wont kill us when he dies. instead of endorsing his lynching with no info!

vote passacaglia


Also, again I've only skimmed this, but even I am pretty sure that KWhit did not tell DT that he is a vanilla villager.

1. KWhit was NOT a vanilla villager. Did you read his death reveal?
2. DT asked us which sounds more believable -- every 36 hours, or once per calendar week. KWhit's death reveal said he could use his wiretap once per calendar week.

I think this is the crux of your problem with DT. If you're thinking that DT wanted us to lynch KWhit because he was "just a vanilla villager" then yeah, that's a problem. But the reason DT thought we should go after KWhit is because he thought that his power seemed more fake.

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 08:31 AM

DT, can I ask what kind of read you have on clap? I'm thinking that I would have a lot more trust in him if he revealed his role and tell us he's good in the thread, then had you confirm that that's what he told you. But if you don't think that's a good idea, or have a better idea, that's cool with me.

nfg22 07-08-2009 08:33 AM

Yeah....I think DT made a good choice....but in the end he was wrong. I dont know much right now. I just know clap is pinging my wolfdar as you guys say. Very aggressive and very little reason. Alot of words, not much thought. I will be keeping my vote inside of my pocket for now but it is leaning that way.

Danny 07-08-2009 08:35 AM

DT, are you a fan and knowledgeable about the show 24?

BrianD 07-08-2009 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2067191)
there's plenty of movement in the voting record even before i endorsed KWhit - the moving of BrianD multiple times, and the double run-up-and-down on NTN (how rare is that btw...crazy swing) among other things.


My multiple moves has come up twice now, and I wanted to address that. All of my moves had a reason which should be pretty clear from the posts. My vote for EagleFan was one of the first votes made trying to encourage others to vote and create a voting record. My switch to The Jackal happened when there was a 2-2 tie with PB. The intention here was to see who would start scrambling. I switched over to PB when DT let us know that lynching The Jackal was a bad idea. I then switched to KWhit when DT let us know that wasn't a bad vote.

Day 1 votes have no real reason behind them, and DT was the only one with any kind of information. Better to follow some information than none.

Danny 07-08-2009 08:42 AM

I'm off for a while, be back in the afternoon

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2067195)
DT, can I ask what kind of read you have on clap? I'm thinking that I would have a lot more trust in him if he revealed his role and tell us he's good in the thread, then had you confirm that that's what he told you. But if you don't think that's a good idea, or have a better idea, that's cool with me.


Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2067198)
DT, are you a fan and knowledgeable about the show 24?


I watched the first couple seasons (first 2.5 maybe?). Then kinda fell off the wagon. But rest of the family are big fans.

Tyrith 07-08-2009 08:45 AM

*lies on the ground*

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 2067206)
*lies on the ground*


:(

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2067203)
Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"


Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?

DaddyTorgo 07-08-2009 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2067212)
Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?


could be either. if he's evil then the role is just a cover anyways

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2067214)
could be either. if he's evil then the role is just a cover anyways


Fair enough, I guess. Clap, do you have a problem with revealing your role?

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 08:57 AM

Anyway, until we hear more from him...

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

claphamsa 07-08-2009 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2067194)
Also, again I've only skimmed this, but even I am pretty sure that KWhit did not tell DT that he is a vanilla villager.

1. KWhit was NOT a vanilla villager. Did you read his death reveal?
2. DT asked us which sounds more believable -- every 36 hours, or once per calendar week. KWhit's death reveal said he could use his wiretap once per calendar week.

I think this is the crux of your problem with DT. If you're thinking that DT wanted us to lynch KWhit because he was "just a vanilla villager" then yeah, that's a problem. But the reason DT thought we should go after KWhit is because he thought that his power seemed more fake.


did you read my comment? oh wait no you said you didnt!

my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.

claphamsa 07-08-2009 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2067203)
Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"

becauseof my PM? I don't want people to think you know something that you dont. we already have one dead villager because of you.

ISiddiqui 07-08-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD (Post 2067200)
Better to follow some information than none.


Exactly. And hey, sometimes it may end up wrong, but its better than flailing around in the dark.

claphamsa 07-08-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2067212)
Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?

pass, if i was a wolf i would have just lied.

Passacaglia 07-08-2009 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067228)
did you read my comment? oh wait no you said you didnt!

my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.


I read your comment. When I said I only skimmed it, I meant that I only skimmed last night. I've got some work to take care of before I examine it more closely.

As for your comment, I thought I answered that for you: I believe that KWhit told him exactly what his role was (and I think that's pretty well documented in the thread yesterday), but it looked like it conflicted with other roles in a not-very-believable way. It seems likely to me that DT would reach the same conclusion that the majority of us would (kinda what makes it the majority) when evaluating the reveals, so I don't see the need to get hell bent about it.

nfg22 07-08-2009 09:21 AM

I may be wrong but I have a strongfeeling.


Vote Claphamsa

claphamsa 07-08-2009 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22 (Post 2067249)
I may be wrong but I have a strongfeeling.


Vote Claphamsa


because i don think we should blindly trust DTs gut?

Autumn 07-08-2009 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067255)
because i don think we should blindly trust DTs gut?


It seems like you're discouraging us for using his info on votes, which should only help the wolves. DT, despite yestserday's result, is the most powerful weapon we have. As I said earlier I can't imagine how the wolves can beat us in the end with him. One way would be if we start ignoring his advice, which seems to be your intent.

Day one almost always ends with a villager lynched, it's not like following DT resulted in worse than that.

Autumn 07-08-2009 09:39 AM

Anyway, that's a really surprising night result. It seems they do get a "night kill", I'm not sure how the timing worked out with our lynch vote, maybe we can figure that out.

What do we make of two kills? Was one a wolf kill and one a villager/neutral kill? I wouldn't be surprised to know there was a villager who can make a kill. Maybe they knew JAG's role and assumed he was bad since he was a foreigner?

path12 07-08-2009 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067228)
my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.


It seems he had a pretty relevant role to me. Being able to dig into a possible suspect's PM's is just about as good as a scan.

I don't get where you're going here, clap. DT is our only known good. He is also going to be the main clearinghouse for information. I don't envy him his role.

Autumn 07-08-2009 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12 (Post 2067274)
DT is our only known good. He is also going to be the main clearinghouse for information. I don't envy him his role.


Especially given he's the only one who doesn't have a chance with Kim Bauer.

Autumn 07-08-2009 09:49 AM

I need to get the voting record in some form that makes sense to me and examine it. But I'm inclined to either go after one of the vote getters yesterday to see what we learn, or follow DT's hunches, which at this point have me looking at clap, who certainly is making some suspicious noise, probably to try to discourage us from following a DT hunch that leads us right to him.

Actually the more I think about that the more I think clap's making a desperation move here. I'll hold my vote for now though.

BrianD 07-08-2009 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2067268)
Anyway, that's a really surprising night result. It seems they do get a "night kill", I'm not sure how the timing worked out with our lynch vote, maybe we can figure that out.

What do we make of two kills? Was one a wolf kill and one a villager/neutral kill? I wouldn't be surprised to know there was a villager who can make a kill. Maybe they knew JAG's role and assumed he was bad since he was a foreigner?


I'm going under the assumption that we've got a wolf and a neutral kill. The "disease" sounds very much like a biological weapon that would be developed by the conspiracy. The throat-slitting sounds much more conventional. The fact that the victim of the throat-slitting was Marwan makes me think that he was targeted for being foreign. I think one of our fellow government members thought he knew something and took a shot.

RendeR 07-08-2009 10:11 AM

DT is having connection issues, he'll be on asap.

Barkeep49 07-08-2009 10:13 AM

Hoops has been tied down at a client work site this morning and thus not as available. I'm currently catching up and will be processing any needed actions shortly.

Barkeep49 07-08-2009 10:25 AM

This morning Eaglefan's cell phone once again started tracking. He is now once again available.

Thomkal 07-08-2009 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2067188)
I don't know how much clearer I can put it. There is info there, even if you *take out* any effect that DT had on it. By this, I mean that there were votes made before people followed DT on KWhit. Some of those were people following DT on ntn, but even if you take THOSE out, there are still other votes there for us to analyze.


And when/if we do know the roles of the people who were up for the lynch yesterday we will have more insight into the voting. So there's a lot of potential info we can analyze from the day 1 vote.

nfg22 07-08-2009 10:36 AM

???
EF whats up?

ISiddiqui 07-08-2009 10:41 AM

Hmmm... I'm interested to see what Eaglefan can tell us. Maybe we can get some new clues.

EagleFan 07-08-2009 11:09 AM

Hi all. I am back but have nothing to tell as of yet. I had to go dark for a day to trigger another ability. I have been PM'ing DT throughout the day with my PM's. I was still allowed to use my 4 PM's yesterday, just not post. That is how he knew I was well.

It looks like a rather disappointing start.

I have a few suspicions based on what I have been reading but want to send some of that DT's way to let him sort things out. I am quite concerned with one event that took place but that is something for "Jack" and I to sort out at a much later date and time.

BrianD 07-08-2009 11:10 AM

So do we know anything more today that we did yesterday?

The Jackal 07-08-2009 11:20 AM

Bah, that was a crappy night phase.

clap, I'm really not sure why you have such a hardon for going after DT because of KWhit's lynch. Yeah, he was wrong about him, but presumably he received quite a few role reveals in PMs, and with absolutely no info to go on during day one, I think a lot of us were ok with him working up a candidate based on a sketchy role PM. Plus, others were suspicious of KWhit already anyways.

The Jackal 07-08-2009 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD (Post 2067346)
So do we know anything more today that we did yesterday?


Doesn't look like it, at least not publicly. I'm sure there are people that have learned some things, but I doubt it becomes public right away.

Voting today may have to be based off what could be considered suspicious votes from yesterday, maybe in combination with how DT is feeling.

BrianD 07-08-2009 11:28 AM

I've been looking back over the votes from yesterday, and nothing is really jumping out at me. One thing I noticed is that with all of the votes on PB, ntn, and Jackal, nobody really defended anyone and tried to pull votes off of them. People made their own defensive statements, but I didn't see any subtle manipulation to move votes away from them. The only thing that looked slightly weird was the second run on ntn, but at that time, only PB was also targeted.

I'm starting to wonder if both ntn and PB are good...in a game with no deadline and lynches happening as soon as there are enough votes...protecting wolves has to happen much more quickly.

path12 07-08-2009 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD (Post 2067362)
in a game with no deadline and lynches happening as soon as there are enough votes...protecting wolves has to happen much more quickly.


That's a good point I hadn't thought of.

claphamsa 07-08-2009 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2067355)
Bah, that was a crappy night phase.

clap, I'm really not sure why you have such a hardon for going after DT because of KWhit's lynch. Yeah, he was wrong about him, but presumably he received quite a few role reveals in PMs, and with absolutely no info to go on during day one, I think a lot of us were ok with him working up a candidate based on a sketchy role PM. Plus, others were suspicious of KWhit already anyways.

I have no hard on.... unless there are cuthbert pics up!

What im trying ot say is.... we cant blindly follow DT! yes he has more info, but of how much value is it? unless someone PMs him and says im a wolf, or 2 pm him and say im the seer... its info, but thats it!

he needs to temper his statemtns of possible guilt unless he KNOWS something.

path12 07-08-2009 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2067371)
I have no hard on.... unless there are cuthbert pics up!

What im trying ot say is.... we cant blindly follow DT! yes he has more info, but of how much value is it? unless someone PMs him and says im a wolf, or 2 pm him and say im the seer... its info, but thats it!

he needs to temper his statemtns of possible guilt unless he KNOWS something.


I actually agree with you that we can't blindly follow what DT says. After all, Jack is often led down some blind alleys.

You have to realize though that the one person who knows the most about what is going on in this game is DT. Everyone with a role good or bad will be going through him (I can't imagine why they wouldn't) and he's got to sift through everything and try and make some judgement as to what is real and what isn't.

But when you ask him specific questions, that bothers me. I don't want him talking in thread about everything he knows or hears. As he did yesterday, I trust that he will hint in thread when it is necessary.

And though I agree about following blindly, his opinion does carry weight and it should, and he should continue to give his opinion where he feels it is valid.

How others react to that might tell us a lot, IMO.

The Jackal 07-08-2009 11:51 AM

Yeah, as long as we don't revert to mob mentality and keep discussion ongoing I think we can avoid following DT too blindly, especially if there's no clear info.

Barkeep49 07-08-2009 11:55 AM

As a note: I am currently in contact with DT, but he's having problems accessing the site for unknown reasons.


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